9. Volatility Modeling

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 9 พ.ย. 2024

ความคิดเห็น • 59

  • @SeikoVanPaath
    @SeikoVanPaath 4 ปีที่แล้ว +69

    Timestamps:
    0:00:22 Estimation of Stationary ARMA Models (Recap of Lecture 8)
    0:09:23 Tests for Stationarity/Non-Stationarity (from Lecture 8)
    0:22:32 Defining Volatility
    0:23:48 Historical Volatility: Measurement and Prediction
    0:31:19 Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM)
    0:59:32 Poisson Jump Diffusions
    1:05:43 ARCH Models
    1:15:19 GARCH Models

  • @BreezeTalk
    @BreezeTalk 3 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    watching these with the lecture notes open and having sone some reading is basically like attending an MIT class, so cool!

  • @L-x7y
    @L-x7y 6 ปีที่แล้ว +18

    ARCH models start at 1:05:38

  • @DaSexPixels
    @DaSexPixels 9 ปีที่แล้ว +91

    The prof. should be writing these equations out on the board as he talks about them. It's the only way to teach math. If his teachers used slides, I doubt he would have gotten to where he is today, teaching at leading research university. Unfortunately, he is not the only one. This a growing trend in academia.

    • @hussein6419
      @hussein6419 9 ปีที่แล้ว +19

      +DaSexPixels I don't know what's your problem lol? You're not even paying for it.

    • @Jacob930321
      @Jacob930321 9 ปีที่แล้ว +11

      +DaSexPixels The camera man is the problem, not the prof.

    • @jiancongwang1268
      @jiancongwang1268 7 ปีที่แล้ว +13

      Make sense. At least when the god damn professor talk, put the view onto the slides, not on the old man himself which makes no sense. The dude who edited this should be fired. Stanford open course's editing beats this any day of the week.

    • @zhukeren
      @zhukeren 7 ปีที่แล้ว

      If you find this bothers you, you can really access the course material on their website

    • @arcx1000
      @arcx1000 7 ปีที่แล้ว +4

      I agree, the whole reason I'm here is because this is exactly what my derivative modelling prof does, so that doesn't help much.

  • @empress0ntombi
    @empress0ntombi 7 ปีที่แล้ว +59

    Volatility Modeling starts at 20 minutes

    • @SuperDangerousMouse
      @SuperDangerousMouse 6 ปีที่แล้ว +3

      skip to 20:30

    • @Eon-Yang
      @Eon-Yang 5 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      You saved my 20min!

    • @conjetapierre8755
      @conjetapierre8755 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      Empress Ntombi Thank you

    • @IlyaBratenkov
      @IlyaBratenkov 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@Eon-Yang это серия лекций! Лектор рассказывает то, что он не успел рассказать на предыдущем уроке

  • @hrushikeshmallick6884
    @hrushikeshmallick6884 7 ปีที่แล้ว +12

    why the power point presentation is set at a very high altitude and totally away from the teacher? The classroom setting is a really a problem here. Major problem can be addressed by setting the room and the power point. The instructor uses the slides while speaking, the camera instead of showing the slides, shows teacher's face to the audience.Other than this I have no major problems.One should appreciate that there si something interesting in the lecture although starting is little boring.

  • @comenerv
    @comenerv 7 ปีที่แล้ว +16

    20:38 for volatility modelling

  • @UnkleRiceYo
    @UnkleRiceYo 5 ปีที่แล้ว +13

    I'll save you one hour and twenty minutes... essentially, don't just use close close returns for volatility estimates. If your volatility changes with time, just use a simple GARCH model.

    • @XShollaj
      @XShollaj 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      Thank you

    • @LemmaofIto-mz9ee
      @LemmaofIto-mz9ee ปีที่แล้ว

      just read Financial Risk Management book by Christoffesson

  • @SphereofTime
    @SphereofTime 4 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    26:00 Prediction based on historical volatility

  • @MagicmathmandarinOrg
    @MagicmathmandarinOrg 9 ปีที่แล้ว +10

    Great intro course & good for reviewing basic things.

  • @shawnfanning8519
    @shawnfanning8519 7 ปีที่แล้ว

    good job, because the books are hard to understand, because this is new to me. So he gave good job of breaking down the material.THK

  • @acuimoto
    @acuimoto 9 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    thanks for this videos, i hope one the goes to the MIT

  • @annawilson3824
    @annawilson3824 ปีที่แล้ว

    23:49 Volatility formula

  • @dombgerinefoxter
    @dombgerinefoxter 8 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Thank you very much. Great material

  • @chandrikasaha6301
    @chandrikasaha6301 6 ปีที่แล้ว +16

    the camera thinks that all wisdom lies on the face of the speaker and nothing much on the slides

    • @mahdisamei3331
      @mahdisamei3331 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      @Rahul Ankarapu The slides are available here: ocw.mit.edu/courses/mathematics/18-s096-topics-in-mathematics-with-applications-in-finance-fall-2013/lecture-notes/

  • @azharalimarri3341
    @azharalimarri3341 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    I found a very good lecturer on ARCH and GARCH models please suggest any good book for volatility modelling and prediction

  • @nvnradha
    @nvnradha ปีที่แล้ว

    how (C1-C0)^2 is scaled by sigma^2 to the chi square distribution

  • @micel99
    @micel99 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    Does anyone know where to find the case study code? It sources the test_vol1b.r file including the fcn function, which is not available online. Thanks!

    • @mitocw
      @mitocw  3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      The case study code for lecture 9 was not made available to us.

  • @nahshahehsha6794
    @nahshahehsha6794 3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Yo wen dyd Mike Pence stard teeching at MIT?

  • @jeffgao5942
    @jeffgao5942 4 ปีที่แล้ว +4

    Math Mike Pence > Regular Mike Pence

  • @riccaccio1
    @riccaccio1 3 ปีที่แล้ว

    does anyone knows where to search for the solution of the maximum likelihood parameters estimation when delta_j varies and it is not equal to 1? minute 35:20

  • @WallaceRoseVincent
    @WallaceRoseVincent 6 ปีที่แล้ว +3

    Anyone interested in working through the course together?

    • @randomYtuberr
      @randomYtuberr 6 ปีที่แล้ว +1

      Hows it going so far ?

    • @sunnybae4921
      @sunnybae4921 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      I would like to walk through the course together! Let me know!

    • @randiaz95
      @randiaz95 5 ปีที่แล้ว +2

      me too

    • @bleacherz7503
      @bleacherz7503 4 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@sunnybae4921 I’ve taken this course

    • @riccaccio1
      @riccaccio1 3 ปีที่แล้ว

      @@bleacherz7503 Hi do you have the solution for the exercise on maximum likelihood parameters estimation for the geometric brownian motion case when delta_j varies and it is not equal to 1??

  • @anonimanonim8665
    @anonimanonim8665 6 หลายเดือนก่อน

    The paper of Parkinson is from 1980 not 1976.

  • @HolmesPatrick
    @HolmesPatrick 15 วันที่ผ่านมา

    No sound

  • @nahshahehsha6794
    @nahshahehsha6794 3 ปีที่แล้ว +2

    Not writing on the board? At MIT? What a joke.

    • @TheosDragon
      @TheosDragon 3 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Lazyrules theworld

  • @sebastiansantolalla9184
    @sebastiansantolalla9184 5 หลายเดือนก่อน

    LMAO bro said fenance 😭

  • @InterShoreBankingExperts
    @InterShoreBankingExperts ปีที่แล้ว

    give the super cougher some water.

  • @harryj1081
    @harryj1081 3 ปีที่แล้ว +1

    well if this was anything of practical use, volmageddon and GME squeeze wouldnt have happened, would it?