The Fermi Paradox: Late Filters
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 20 พ.ย. 2019
- The Fermi Paradox asks why we don't see any alien civilizations with our SETI efforts. The Late Filters are common solution suggested, that intelligent species may often arise but either destroy themselves or unwilling or incapable of interstellar travel to reach new worlds and colonize the galaxy.
Start listening with a 30-day Audible trial and your first audiobook plus two Audible Originals are free. Visit www.audible.com/isaac or text "isaac" to 500-500.
Join this channel to get access to perks:
/ @isaacarthursfia
Visit our Website: www.isaacarthur.net
Join Nebula: go.nebula.tv/isaacarthur
Support us on Patreon: / isaacarthur
Support us on Subscribestar: www.subscribestar.com/isaac-a...
Facebook Group: / 1583992725237264
Reddit: / isaacarthur
Twitter: / isaac_a_arthur on Twitter and RT our future content.
SFIA Discord Server: / discord
Credits:
The Fermi Paradox Great Filters: Late Filters
Episode 213, Season 5 E47
Written by:
Isaac Arthur
Editors:
Darius Said
Jerry Guern
Keith Blockus
Matthew Acker
Phonetic Failure
Victoria Kelly
Cover Art:
Jakub Grygier www.artstation.com/jakub_grygier
Graphics by:
Jeremy Jozwik www.artstation.com/zeuxis_of_...
LegionTech Studios
Sergio Botero www.artstation.com/sboterod?f...
Produced & Narrated by:
Isaac Arthur
Music:
Lombus, "Cosmic Soup" lombus.bandcamp.com
Markus Junnikkala, "A Memory of Earth" www.markusjunnikkala.com/
AJ Prasad, "Aether" • Dark Future - Staring ...
Lombus, "Hydrogen Sonata" lombus.bandcamp.com
AJ Prasad, "Staring Through" • Dark Future - Staring ... - วิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี
![[안방1열 풀캠4K] 베이비몬스터 'FOREVER' (BABYMONSTER FullCam)│@SBS Inkigayo 240707](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/_2HL-ogzzBU/mqdefault.jpg)
Do not confuse with latte filters. Those only affect hipster civilizations.
Actually, there is a hyper-advanced meta-civilization out there which sterilizes all primitive civilizations which attain interstellar flight while they still have hipsters. That's the real "latte filter."
we recognize them by their chronically scalded lips because they always drink their latte before it's cool
The latte filters are thought to be the cause of the foamy paradox.
@@Jay_Bazzizzle Top notch, M8
Best comment thread ever. Good job chaps
Isaac Arthur: That seems exactly like our timeline...Hmmm
*existential dread enters the chat*
I lost that battle long ago... :(
Highly likely that the first civilization in a universe tends to be its last.
Oh I do not have any dread. I do believe spreading civilizations is not a good idea. On the large scale they do more damage and destruction. So wild nature should rule the universe, civilizations can exist in little pockets... until they cannot be maintained anymore, and cramble
@@KateeAngel Don't you just hate it when your civ starts to cramble? 😝
@John Galt That goes without saying.
“We aren’t Greek gods. We don’t eat our kids to keep them from overthrowing us one day”
- Speak for yourself, Isaac.
(In Homer Simpson voice) Mmmm Kids!!!
"Time" will tell
The old metaphorically "eat" their children constantly throughout history, and vice versa. In fact we see generational valleys and peaks throughout history, where a generation gains such power and wealth that the next few generations fall into one of said valleys. We see this during times of low plague usually, because this was the biggest threat to the old within quasi-stable regions. One of the most stable places for prolonged periods of time through history was ancient China. We saw this cycle several times with such peaks and valleys, also in ancient Rome, and usually it would be uprooted by barbarians (organized youth) coming to overthrow the old that had built societies that could not be uprooted from within.
We are seeing a similar peak and valley right now...and it is yet to be seen whether it will be corrected from within or not...though the current situation is somewhat different than all previous, because usually when a "barbarian lord" would rise up, the elite couldn't buy them off, their power was rooted the support he had from the wild peoples, but now, the new "barbarian lords" are tech leaders...and they are very clearly being bought off by billions of dollars. When their power is actually reliant on the very system they have the power to disrupt then they are probably not going to disrupt it, like the barbarians of old would have. Hence we may be entering a prolonged valley, which historically built monarchies and dynasties, and this time it may be even more sustainable because those elite can hire people to maintain themselves much easier than they could before. In the past a poor ruler might get by if he was lucky enough to rule during a time that competent help was around, but if it wasn't it usually meant his dynasty came to an end. Currently an elite who is bad at managing their wealth can go find competent help from further away and buy their loyalty easier than ever, which allows them to continue to maintain their status indefinitely.
So in the end, the only people left to actually break out of the current cycle are the people themselves, and for a very few times in history this actually worked, and most of those instances have happened in the last 300 years, so there is some hope...but the other factor the older generation born on a natural peak have going for them is comfort. We live in an era of unprecedented comfort, and when those at the bottom of the valley are actually comfortable themselves to not become barbarians, then it is clearly unlikely to happen. They actually have something to lose, unlike those few instances in the past where desperate people truly had nearly nothing to lose through open rebellion. Now the lowest classes do have enough comfort to have something to lose, and they are clinging to that desperately, swearing fealty to the new monarchs as long as the small creature comforts keep flowing...so things will have to get much worse before they truly get better...
Hence...the old eating the young to keep them from overthrowing them one day...
Why i think about boomers ?
Carried by their elders, they rebelled.
Gives debts for their (few) children, they mock them.
The boomers is the worst generation (not individuals) who have walked this planet so far.
@@Koozomec Thinking of "generations" before modern times is kinda not accurate, because any group of people around the world was not in communications closely enough to share a common MO. Generations that have an identity is really a creation of the last couple hundred years, and really was only confined to specific nations and regions before the last 100 years. So to say they are the worst is comparing them to a limited sampling of most recent times.
With that said...they now hold all the power, and have for decades. Nearly every major rule, every major decision that influences the world today was crafted by them or by people that they voted into power...so they completely own this backslide in progress we are seeing right now. Its definitely discouraging to watch a backslide as its happening. Things really still aren't that bad compared to what came before, but the path to them getting much worse is very clear, and we are definitely heading towards it...and that is a depressing thought.
"We don't eat our kids to keep them from overthrowing us one day"
This channel has some great parenting tips.
Baby boomers didn't get that memo, I guess.
Eat kids, be Gods
Titans if you want to be correct
Wait, I'm not supposed to... oops, my bad (burp.)
Titans and gods are the same thing. The only difference in thier meaning in that time periods common usage for the words is annotating the point of separation of two different hierarchial orders within one relative time period.
@@roninwolf3347 Also Titans are more powerful as they are more ancient and agism I guess.
Earth, Holding the Sky up, Time, The Abyss/Tartarus. Very good portfolios to have.
The great thing about trying science that could destroy the world is there’s no penalties if your critics are right.
And everyone goes down with you if it turns bad!!
At least nobody will complain about it.
@@zvpunry1971 Or sue you
All this makes doomsday devices the safest thing to play with. ;)
During the first nuclear detonation test, there was a non 0% chance of the whole atmosphere uncontrollably burning in some catastrophic chain reaction.
It was incredibly, unfathomably unlikely, but the truth is it could happen and was a "real" possibility they were aware of.
I want to read a story about two Asimovian robot factions fighting a precision, deadlocked war to protect humans, all around humans, for so long that peaceful, safe humans just ignore it as normal, until one day a human gets killed and the robots call a cease-fire immediately. Some humans decide that the robots are now dangerous and want to destroy them, but the robots know that without them humans will be harmed. So an investigation is done to find the guilty party to decide the winner, carried out by a human investigator and a robot from each faction.
Etterra just did, loved it
Cool concept, would definitly be a interesting story. And I think probably you shoudl write it, since you came up witht the idea :) I'd buy and read it for sure :)
Nice premise! You sound like you are waiting for something to get started writing.... Hmmmmm
You have our:
1. Encouragement
2. Permission
3. Blessings
4. Well wishes
LoL! Hope that helps in some small way! Good luck!
Well write it.
I've had an idea for a grand space opera for years, filled out settings, characters, etc. Yet have never typed a word of it. Lots of people have ideas about stories, few do anything with them.
Perhaps we choose a single player mode before pressing start
Or none of the other players are online yet.
Servers must be dead
"Switching to multiplayer mode will cause all progress to be lost. Continue? (Y/N)"
I'll be damned if you ever catch me playing the always-online version of reality
@@MetricImperialist dead game dead servers
Every time I read your name, I feel like there should be Sir before it.
"Sir Isaac Arthur" just seems to have a nice ring to it. Now you just have to go to England and get knighted.
Thats because there was a person Sir Isac Arthur. I don't remember how his name was written, but he was one of the known knights in medievil times
@@thedarkdragon1437 Maybe he's the reincarnation of him! Lol
Id vote for it.
@@mikespilligan1490 I think all of us here would!
I keep thinking this too
I want Isaac Arthur to write a sci-fi novel. He will spend 500 pages just talking about how the alien species gets into space and creates a space station even before making first contact, and I'm okay with that.
There is a James Michener novel, Centennial, that starts at the center of the Earth at the beginning of the Solar System and spends about a hundred pages before the first mention of humans.
Tom Clancy of sci-fi :D
Children of time is a lot like that
He goes pretty hard on sci-fi trope mini-fiction examples in like every video haha.
Like saying the Earth Overseer AI believing the Colonial Overseer AI will see Earth humans as aliens because colonial humans aren't really human anymore
When it comes to the Fermi Paradox, I really think it is "early filters" at work. I think we will find that intelligent life is exceedingly rare. For one thing, as "old" as the universe is, there has only been a relatively short time for life to exist, since it took billions of years of stellar deaths to increase the density of heavy elements to the point where terrestrial planets and the building blocks of life would be available in the first place.
A planet would also have to be in a relatively quiet neighborhood of a galaxy (such as where Earth is) to give life a chance, so that is large chunks of a galaxy where life would have a hard time surviving long enough to evolve. And then even if you have intelligent life, the mass of its planet might keep it grounded. A planet has to be massive enough to hang onto an appreciable atmosphere, while light enough that reaching escape velocity isn't impossible, and much more than 1G makes chemical rockets quickly unusable for getting to orbit. It's difficult to reach orbit from Earth itself at 1G, so such a civilization on a heavier planet would have to come up with some other scheme to even get to orbit.
While likely there is bias in our exoplanet surveys due to the current limits of telescopes, it does appear that "super earths" are the most common type of terrestrial planet. Actual Earth-sized worlds seem to be rare (but we have found some). Getting much smaller than Earth poses problems to supporting life for very long, as would be a problem with a Mars-sized planet, even if it had an active magnetic field...it would still lose atmosphere over time. In fact, even the Earth loses atmosphere albeit at a very slow rate.
In other words, the Earth is a "perfect" mix of attributes for chemistry, rocketry, and life to allow an intelligent species to become an advanced space-faring civilization. And it may just be that such planets, and consequently civilizations, are incredibly rare. With as enormous as space is, that might be the very reason we haven't seen anyone out there, and might never.
Well, simple life began fairly early on Earth, about 4 billion years ago, only 11% of Earth's current age. However, so-called "imtelligent" life, i.e., modern humans (homo sapiens sapiens), has only appeared around 200,000 years ago. This means that intelligence appeared after 99.996% of Earth's history and 99.995% of life's history had gone by. It could be that evolution to intelligence happened much quicker on other worlds, since evolution is essentially a random process.
@@spaceman081447
Genesis Folk ,
The Universe is absurdly large ; even protogalaxies would have sometimes created high concentrations of metals fairly soon after the Big-Bang .
This means that realistically , the occasional Earth would have formed as early as 12-billion years ago .
If we use Earth's timeline as a statistical guide , then the first men could have appeared almost 8-billion years ago .
Our technology is embryonic , and certainly not capable of detecting the emanations of civilisations that old , IF they even produce any .
*.We are the "Gorillas in the Mist" !
I think we’re running up against a great filter now. It’s anthropogenic climate change. We failed to address it in time. We’re going to be set back centuries even if we act aggressively over the next ten years. We were given an incredible gift of a climatically stable epoch. That time is over, now we are in a dynamic climate that humanity has never lived in before. And it’s all happening too fast for most life to adapt. Rough times ahead.
@@___.51 Life finds away, even when the dinos went extinct, with the equivalent of thousands of times the total arsenals of all the nuke powers going off in one big boom, when the asteroid hit Yucatan, then winter for years. Global cooling, if you will! LOL. The little shrew-like animals that lived then, survived all this, and eventually became us, and other apes, over the next 65 million years. If we go, some clever insect might inherit the earth, and like the higher temps, from the current monkey-kind infestation for example. I'm not worried, they may even live in peace, unlike the "Planet of the Apes" we have today! ;D
@@ronschlorff7089 I get what you're saying, but I'm thinking about my niece and nephew who are toddlers and the world they're going to grow up in. The world I'll have to endure in my middle age. The inevitable suffering and loss that was avoidable only thirty years ago had our leaders chosen a different path.
This actually makes me feel existentially safe.
Hopefully we can evolve long enough technologically to fight back against a hostile species.
As soon as life can signal it's existence it's replaced by the God of singularity, so, don't get too comfortable.
Even in a "big-rip" scenario, dont civilizations have an incentive to collect resources on the offchance that they later find some means to alter the universe to prevent its further expansion, and need resources to do such research or construct a device to implement it? Theres no telling what one would need to apply knowledge that you dont have yet, so it seems reasonable enough to just collect as much as you possibly can if you can. It isnt like they lose anything if they collect stuff but never find a use, given you wont run out of room in space.
Big rip? Are we talking about Eric Swalwell now?
Yeeah, kinda, except you know hoarding mass in one place ends up making black holes, which isn’t good if that wasn’t your intention to begin with
@@HadzabadZa I dunno. If your problem is that you live in a universe where inflation is so powerful that it beats out gravity and threatens to tear apart galaxies, solar systems, and planets, having a massive gravity well like a black hole might be useful at least as a stopgap measure to buy yourselves a little bit more time.
@@matterhorn731 Maybe the solution is to jump into a black hole and cross the event horizon at the moment the big rip goes critical. Then you live in infinite free fall.
@@edd8914 Only according to an outside observer... which couldn't exist in that situation.
Spoiler alert: Isaac plugs snacks and drinks... 😉
“We may all be doomed... why don’t you grab a snack and a drink?”
Because snacks and drinks are mother flipping awesome 🌟 plugs not so much, unless you like half assing stuff but its all about the snacks and drinks man, everyone knows that! 😂✌👽😎👵
there must be something relly wrong about the translation i have for the word "plug"
(and now the picture)
Have you ever died hungry?
"Eat drink and be merry, for tomorrow we die." Maybe,.... maybe not! ;D
I don’t know why, but for some reason I hate the word snack.. Hate it! Lol
You talking about the most successful civilizations being pragmatic reminds me of a saying from Eve Online "The best ship in New Eden is the friendship"
Friendship is OP, CCPlease nerf.
o7
My solution to the Fermi Paradox: Life in the universe is still in its infancy. It takes a long time for certain compounds and resources to form and it's plausible that we're at the earliest point a civilisation could have enough of these resources to start venturing out in any meaningful capacity. We'd be among the earliest civilisations to exist according to this theory.
If that's true though, shouldn't we be seeing a lot of radio waves coming off of other equally developed civilizations?
@@RobRoseKnows well, maybe a fuckton of "Berlin Olympics broadcast" equivalents... a few centuries or so from now...
@@RobRoseKnows That would depend on just how spread out life is. It's possible that these other civilisations would be thousands of light years away. Or the ones within that distance haven't developed it yet. The aliens might be in their industrial or medieval age right now.
Duncan McOkiner or they might have sur[ased radio technology and are no longer sending out radio waves in enough quantities not to be diluted in the background noise
@@sgcv Was that supposed to say "surpassed"?
I like to consider an alternate hypothesis, we are the 'old ones'. And it is our destiny to seed the universe with life.
Makes sense to me...
I like it too! I certainly am an "old one" ;D
That's what I thought too.
The question then becomes "why were we the first?". I'm in no way an expert in these matters, but my understanding is that there probably have been many places similar to early Earth existing for longer than it took life to develop here. Us being among the first seems likely given what we see, but that doesn't explain *why* others haven't beaten us to it.
@@curvy4655 That's one of the questions to which the answer is: "42"!! ; )
My favorite filter in the one that everybody leaves out is that all sentient species are at the same level of Technology. The waves have not propagated enough for any civilization to hear the other and when they do we will all hear each other at once. I like to dream big!
I've always liked this one.
Statistically less likely, but likelihood is not the same as certainty.
Or there are a lot of civilisations that never had a Renaissance era, believe it or not but the Renaissance was a highly unlikely event that only happened due to Europe being placed in a geograpically favored location in combination with a lot of luck of circumstance. There were a lot of civilisation on earth that existed for a long time amon them the Byzantine empire and dynasty china that had the possibility to have a Renaissance but didn't because all parameters for that to happen was not in place. Considering this there may be a lot of inhabited worlds suck in the middle ages.
@@hortencya302 I would add one word in there and that would be "yet". Even in the animal kingdom animals will stand up to the oppressing animal. An alpha male will be challenged by the next generation. That is animalistic instinct no matter what the species. That's what I was getting at, there could be a point in the near future where all of them happened to go through a Renaissance at the same time and the airwaves just become flooded with their signals finally reaching us. There's a lot of things that even us as humans have access to but won't learn. I've been telling everybody even on this channel about the purple Earth since this channel started. Now it's becoming common knowledge but I learned about it in 2006. When it comes to the ancient empires a lot of it has to do with the changing of the atmosphere as well as huge disasters that caused displacement. This really forced us to evolve technologies to survive. It's also what wiped out the Neanderthal and denisovan. The last remaining ones had already bred with the homo sapien creating the hybrid that is us. There was a point where 27 different species of human live together and you can almost look at it like our Middle Earth. In fact that is where the stories of elves and orcs as well as hobbits come from. Until about a thousand years ago gnomes survived and we're hunting children as well as adults. They lived for millennia but did not force themselves into an evolution. This is why I can see your point. We've already had species of human that have lived for tens of thousands of years they never push themselves out of a caveman mentality or even a monkey mentality.
The filters might be late but I'M EARLY!
That might also be an answer for the fermi-paradox, we might just be the first.
@@diesistkeinname795 or we was so primitive they just left us be until the next cycle
Praise the Machine God for his gifts! All hail Great Arthur
I see what you did there.😉
@@m.t-thoughts8919 doctor bright were have you been? Did the foundation fire you?
@@georgewbushcenterforintell147 Just chilling, bro.
Master-piece video. I hope scientists find extraterrestrials with the *Square Kilometre Array* in 2027.
And if that doesn't work, we can always hope the JWST finds someone out there when it's finally ready in 2150
I hope they do but only if they find a galactic civilization. If they find anything sort of technological that isn't taking over a galaxy we've got a problem.
@@z-beeblebrox That is just a few years after Star Citizen will launch!
@@z-beeblebrox in a race to controlled & commercial fusion, warp drive and JWST I'm NOT betting on the last one ...
@@z-beeblebrox maybe Dr. Frank Poole?
Issac's speaking has gotten better over the years,,, no need for CC if you would just listen
I love his channel but it just takes some time to get accustomed to his speach. You have just become more accustomed to him. I'm on my way, but some words are harder to get immediately, like "horror".
Is that an accent or severe speech impediment? I find myself about to stroke out listening to this
@@DavidSmith-wp2zb Mr Arthur has a speech impediment. He cannot pronounce the letter R correctly. In other videos, he explains this and suggests that you turn on captioning until you get accustomed to his speech pattern.
@@blaster-zy7xx fascinating. I thought he was british or dutch
@@DavidSmith-wp2zb He's from Ohio! The British and Dutch were thrown out, long before they got there!! ;D
The filters that make us less lonely. And a little sad.
Wow early and I already had a snack/drink - no filters to me enjoying this upload.
Lucky Arthursday it is!
Yeah, me too. I finished lunch half an hour ago. I'll have coffee and a snack later. But I'll watch this while I take a nap. I've fallen asleep to Mr. Arthur so many times that it is like a sleeping pill.
I've been subbed to you for some time now but I rarely comment so I just want to say thank you for all the work you put into these videos. The topics are fascinating and you cover them in depth.
Imagine all the alien civilizations who watched their TH-cam equivalent debating the Fermi paradox before wiping themselves out...
Exo-nihilism. Bummer
Better yet, imagine all the ones that will one day watch the equivalent video before going extinct.
@@michaeldriggers7681 We just have to imagine a single one. this one.
And how that relate to Fermi Paradox? It is only definition of difference between observable universe and previous calculations like Kardashev scale. Cosmic Filters and Cosmic Zoo's are only theoretical answers for that paradox (and flawed), as nowadays we know other solutions what don't fallow Kardashev scale. Like for example mega-brains aren't really that expansive living basically in virtual environment with relatively small number of hubs spread over they minimal space infrastructure (but they still have hiper-advance tech so they can defend themselves). Plus modern knowledge about signals state that highly compressed data transmission is indistinguishable from the buzz (not mentioning exotic forms of communication) and so in opposition to analog signal we can't really detect it. Here it is worth to mention Oumuamua interstellar asteroid from 2017, what in fact was suspected to be possible space ship due to unusual shape and properties. This event show us that we don't really have sufficient capabilities to undeniably detect space ship, even if it would fly by through Solar system (and I don't even mention clocked variants).
Now imagine an alien civilizations that debated their version of the Fermi Paradox until they saw us...
Amazing as always Issac! Hope your having a great day! 😃
You too!
That whole bit about time travel possibly being deleting of non causality arrangements was mind blowing enough but then you went ahead and said that if that was the case then what we see would be what we would expect in such a world where we are the survivors of any non causality breaking timelines. Holy crap, my mind is seriously blown right now.
Maybe species outgrow the urge to expand, as they mature.
That would mean that all species would have to determine not to travel into space, which is very unlikely and it still wouldn't explain why we haven't seen or heard a single thing.
@@toddjoseph2412 well, the problem is philosophical: why would you need to expand very far, if all the individuals have enough space and resources only in their local star system? And I guess any intelligent life form would most likely have some form of demographic transition, so that their population growth slows down to zero over time
Good alternative to neverending human greed. But do not argue about it with most of people nowadays. They will refuse to understand that
@@KateeAngel, in my opinion it's not physiological it comes down to long term thinking. Resources in our local group isn't infinite, it's very much finite so for our species to survive even with the population controls that your proposing we will have to ethier bring more resources to us or move to said resources ethier of which should be very visible. If we move then we should be everywhere and if we choose to bring resources to us then that also would be very visible, again neither are happening, the silence is troubling.
Maybe it's even simpler: humans are an anomaly. Most terrestrial planets in the universe are orbiting red dwarf stars and are larger than Earth.
Getting out of the gravity well of a rocky Super Earth with >1.5 g of gravity is much more challenging than leaving Earth.
Many (most?) civilisations may consist of few but long-lived individuals that simply don't have the numbers to expand even beyond their own planetary system.
Most of the speculation also seems to be driven by the almost childish latching on to the belief that existence has to go on forever. Simply accepting one's mortality (and by extension the mortality of your own species - one way or another) also helps getting rid of the "need for greed" in terms of resources.
If your species is few in numbers and individuals live for thousands of years, why even visit other worlds in person? You can send an intelligent probe instead, have it study the target object (stars, planets, civilisations, ...) for years and send the information back to you.
Using some kind of VR-on-steroids, such technique would allow you to see and experience everything the probe saw and experienced. Match the probe's AI with your own personality profile, and it would even make the same decisions (e.g. examining the same details you'd have examined were you there, etc.) so being there in person would really make no difference.
Send thousands of probes instead of just one and you have many "channels" to pick from while waiting for others to report back.
No need for boring, hundreds of years of drifting through the void, no leaving the comfort of your home, family and friends, and no risk of getting killed in transit or during the visit.
and thus ends the 5-episode Trilogy!
Happy Arthursday!
It's Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy all over again.
I know it is a pessimistic view for this channel, but I honestly think this is the best answer to the Fermi Paradox. The Great Filter is ahead of us not behind.
Yes, a little pessimistic, but we are wise to assume there's a good chance they are, same as runner who relaxes right before the finish line and ends up tripping and skidding to a halt right before that.
I dont believe for a second a great filter is ahead of us. A minor or major filter maybe, but we have already proven that its possible to survive nuclear war through many close calls that we passed. Even if global warming kills us, even a slightly more liberal race of aliens would have survived it. Once we are multiplanetary, any non light speed filter is off the table, and those dont contribute to the fermi paradox anyway
I think the most pessimistic view is often the most realistic view.
@@someone2973 thats confirmation bias. we are fast on track to eliminating extreme poverty, landed a man on the fucking moon, created the internet, and made great strides in medicine, art, science and every other field imaginable. you cant argue for late great filter solely on the "i feel like pessimism is right" argument
pretty sure it's behind us; there could be another one, though
I was having the best birthday ever, then got a notification there is a new SFIA episode out, ON A FERMI FILTER! Today is the best day :)
dedballoonz happy birthday :-)
I hope you never stop making Fermi Paradox videos. My favorite. Even after we find aliens.
Love you Isaac! Happy Arthursday to you and yours!
Last time I was this early the comment section was full of people commenting about how it was like the last time they were that early
I absolutely love your content, have been devouring it for creative inspiration!
Thank you!
Just found your channel and I really enjoyed the delivery of the various, "solutions," to the Fermi Paradox. They really got me thinking about alternative possibilities and logical outcomes. Quite thought provoking. I look forward to more. :-)
Everybody cheer! For Arthursday is here!
Issac back from a run 🏃♀️ with a solid upload of goood morning. ❤️ u man
Thanks for another awesome video Isaac. This is my favorite TH-cam channel. One of the GREATEST MINDS ON TH-cam. You are the MAN
Issac Arthur, I want to first thank you for answering my question on your live stream event recently, and secondly I'm enjoying this episode as well. I had to take 2 days off of work due to being sick so Chicken noodle Soup and this show is really good for my heart and mind.
I was thinking about filters two days ago. What a coincidence
The last time I was this early Earth hadn’t passed the multicellular life filter
Multicellular filter is pleb level, eukaryotic is filter for the real enlightened 1337.
@@RonaldMcPaul We need to talk about the 1337 Filter, in which everyone unanimously decides that it's better all round to just stop breeding.
Been a fan of your channel for a couple of years now. I'm a boomer & an Apollo kid who has followed space launches since the late 60s. You channel always gives me a lot to chew on & at times can be overwhelming. But I always enjoy them. You sir, rock.
Great video as always and have a happy thanksgiving.
Liked , commented, subscribed, notified.
Welcome to a very important school, Eli. Class meets every Thursday and sometimes on other days - check the notes from the professor.
273rd like, 28 mins after post. Issac is doing big things. Love the Fermi Paradox Series. 🤘🏻🤘🏻
I love all your videos and look forward them! Thank you Isaac!
love this episode! so many references to a very broad collection of various past episodes, feels like a culmination
What if they’re out there, but they’re so far away from us that the light we detect from them is the light from their most primitive times.
That is probably the problem with not being able to detect life
To all the people making fun of his “accent” or complaining about it being “unwatchable” he has a speech impediment. He can’t help the way he talks, it’s just something that’s learned at a very young age and not corrected. Keep your edgy 13 year old cringe inducing comments to yourself.
I like to think of Mr Arthur's speech impediment as a "filter", keeping the stupid and ignorant people away.
Yeah... but it sounds like Elmer Fud is giving me a science lecture. Not even a bad thing, just slightly distracting I guess. To add, I have a speech impediment too, used to be so bad that instead of saying “dump truck” I would say “dumb fuck.”
he doesn't have perfect speech but of they really can't understand him they need to get their hearing checked
I agree with this!
In all the I. A. vids i've only twice seen a comment complaining/mocking his speech. The faithful fans allways obliterate the culprits. In fact, there is accents much more unclear and jumbled than Arthur's on YT. So this is an old, hopefully unnecessary warning.
Good morning, Good afternoon, Good night. I am a viewer of your channel here in Brazil and as a science fiction buff I have always been haunted by the ideas that were presented by the great masters of this genre, Isaac Assimov, Arthur C Clarke and others and I have spent (or gained) hours imagining the scale and how the societies and civilizations that were described worked and come to be, and how much progress we as a specie had to be made to reach the same level. I always thought I was alone on this considerations, or one of the few who really took the time and effort to imagine such things, at least until I knew your channel and saw things and scales that even I had never even thought of and all presented with solid scientific foundations. In my opinion your channel is one of the best on TH-cam and I spend hours watching and reviewing your videos with some friends (some even on other continents) and imagining the ideas and perspectives that this Channel bring us and the brighter future for our unfortunate species that it seems to bring . Thank you for your work. Although my currency is well below the dollar, as soon as I can, I will be very proud to be one of the sponsors of this channel. Please continue your great work.
These are some of the best thought out videos. Thank you.
Time to learn thank you sir.
I forgot it was Thursday! What a nice surprise 😀
Isaac! Thanks! So glad you posted this one. Saw it on my recommended list and it immediately reminded me I was Late to change out my air conditioning Filters. They were pretty dusty! All is good now; so now I can relax, and watch yet another great Episode!! :D
You've missed the most prevalent and obvious late filter. Logistics. Can space travel even be done with all of those small barriers to entry. Is it even relatively worth it. Would we need literally ever single scrap of material on earth to get started as a space ecology. Could we get started living in space and supposedly growing food/dragging asteroids with all the materials available to us, or are we being way to generous to expect that we could do more than set up small research stations outside of the atmosphere?
The late filters keep getting me denied on tinder, but that is just my ego talking...
good one .. unfortunately I know what you are talking about
I'm a partisan of the non-interference because we still suck at being a civilization in pursuit of happiness
Maybe it is the pursuit of happiness as a goal, that sucks and thats why we seam to suck at it. It is also unclear, what is meant by happiness, when people talk about this.
Considering the particularly brutal late filter demonstrated by the Rat Utopia experiment, I would argue that our inability to create a post-scarcity civilization is a benefit. Cornacopia technology is a suicide pact technology.
@@wolvarine35 Not necessarily. As proven by the subsequent variations on the original Rat utopia experiment, it is possible to live in virtually total abundance and not to degenerate as a society, if there are measures of interpersonal and croasgenerational interdependency built in into the system.
Sure it's not clear how to go about doing it well and lastingly, but it is solid enough argument not to consider cornucopia tech a suicide pact by default.
@@wolvarine35 those results are based on organic mammals with brains influenced by organic compounds.
The problem with this theory is that even though a civilization didn't make it through one of these filters is that we would still receive their transmissions from before they killed themselves off. They may have transmitted signals for a hundred thousand years before the filter and by the time they got here they could have died off. But we would still have the evidence that they were here.
I absolutely love your conclusion/closing on this one.
Shout out for the "Long Earth" series.
YES I'm so glad I'm not the only one who thought of that. :)
1:15, there are still dogs, they're my personal great filter. If there are no dogs, I dont wanna be around.
My dog went missing last night :( facebook.com/100000883377636/posts/2639597796079640/
@@scottpierce9195 oh man that really sucks! I hope you find Ox, great name by the way!
@@Ignorethisuk Thank you! Looking for him now. Originally was going to call him BO, short for come here you big Ox, but it sounded too much like no.
@@scottpierce9195 that is sad and all...but looking for him now? guy you're not looking for him, you're watching some science like video commenting on someone elses comment. They said dog and you had to comment. I am sorry for your..dog running away...but this had nothing to do with the coment other then...the word dog.....way to make this about you.
perhaps flyers and walking around door to door would be better then watching youtube.....
@@ravinraven6913 Ha ha ha! Oh! That's brutal! (but only if the dog ran away). Otherwise, I really hope everyone else who's out looking for your dog, finds him Scott.
I happen to think the reason we don't see evidence of other civilizations is because we are among the first to ever exist. It amazes me that a lot of people refuse to accept this possibility. Compared to its entire predicted lifespan, the universe is incredibly young. It's quite possible that until this point in time, it hasn't been possible for life to exist. It could be possible (not necessarily likely) that the emergence of life on Earth is among the first instances of this happening.
This guy's work goes under the radar 🙌🙌thank you for addressing the questions of us thinkers
Late filters. Like Arthur C. Clarke's "A Walk In The Dark".
How about this: extra terrestrial life is out there, but by some quirk of the universe they're not in our neighbourhood.
Doesn't solve the Fermi paradox, though, merely restates it as the paradox is concerned precisely with the observable universe only.
We sorta looked all bout, but found nothing...
That's one of those answers that is technically possible, but very unsatisfying.
It's technically possible for the same reason that if you roll a 20 sided dice 1 million times it is possible to roll 20 every single time.
Highly improbable, but certainly not impossible.
However, given the nature of the Fermi paradox, this means there would have to be no advanced civilisations within the observable universe...
Or at least, given we're limited by lightspeed observation, none in the observable universe accounting for the time lag.
Like, there might be a civilisation a billion light years away that became sufficiently technologically advanced 800 million years ago.
We wouldn't notice it's existence (barring some kind of FTL technology) for another 200 million years or so.
Possible, but... Improbable.
Galactic gentrification? It's just too darned expensive to even rent a planet in this part of the spiral arm.
Or about this: "civilizations" by definition are systems, which are not natural, they do not function on natural processes only, at least not in a way those processes would go spontaneously. So, by definition, every civilization needs to be constantly maintained by conscious effort of many individuals, and without maintenance it will deteriorate very quickly. Now that is the interesting part: the bigger and more complex civilization is, the more maintenance it needs, the more resources, time etc. it requires. So the likelihood of that maintenance efforts failing becomes bigger. So the more complex civilization, the bigger it is in space and time, the more likely it is to fall into disarray and stop existing
One theory no one ever discusses seriously is that there is some machine intelligence that exterminates every else, like the Reapers from Mass Effect or the Inhibitors from Rev space. If you actually think about it it could make a lot of sense. Some civ with a big enough technological head start on everyone else could easily suppress the expansion and advancement of other civilizations, either confining them to their home system or exterminating them entirely. This would easily explain why we dont see or hear anyone else.
First let me say I love listening to these. I queue one up every night to listen to as I fall asleep and often play one in the morning while I ready myself to face the day, but, honestly, i think there is a great wall and not a great filter, that being the speed of light. Any adventure into the cosmos involves building a vessel to hold generations of beings, cut off from their populations for eons, where anything that goes wrong spells an end to their voyage. No one ultimately makes that investment because as individuals we see the benefit as being too distant in comparison to our tiny lifespans and too dangerous.
I don't know if I'm wording this properly, but it is a matter of scale. The pyramids, for example took 3 or 4, maybe 5 generations to build and that is probably the limit of our ambition. Any goal that requires hundreds and thousands of generations to stay on track is probably beyond our scope to achieve. All it takes is one individual on a colony ship to muck the whole thing up, and you will always have those people.
As far as becoming digital immortals and doing it that way, you can't become digital. Your stream of consciousness resides in your brain and uploading that is really just creating an AI version of yourself. Your consciousness won't magically hop from your brain into a computer. There are hard limits to existence and we already know what they are. It is the same everywhere. We dont see aliens because in all the universe all biology faces these same limits.
I'm sorry everyone, but we are trapped where we are so we better take care of our home because it is the only one we will ever know.
Jesus the thumbnail looks like Doom cover art
:) I wouldn't be surprised if Jakub did that as a joke, I asked him for something in burnt orange/red and apocalyptic overtone, so he initially sent me a big coffee cup on an orange background that was titled "Latte Filters"
@@isaacarthurSFIA Really the greatest filter to any civilization reaching space is an unreliable access to coffee.
@@merrittanimation7721 imagine the entire scientific community paralysed in a firestorm of tiredness, low motivation and general lack of purpose
@@thomas.02 "shudders"
I guess free energy coming from the literal hell dimension can be considered a late filter
I got here before youtube notified me, nice
Another stellar episode as always Isaac.
Keep up the amazing work
"We arent Greek gods."
*Kratos has left the chat.*
The last time I was this early, Theia was incoming.
this Chanel can give me hope and existential problems at the same time, Amazing.
From the theory that causality violating technology would eliminate itself from our continuity, that would mean the Alcubierre Warp drive is not causality violating, and still an FTL solution, because it still exists within our minds. An encouraging thought!
21:37 - whenever I see this robot... I am shocked by its resemblance to the Martian Soldier who helps the rosi crew in the expanse
Who, Draper? Umm I don't see a resemblance 😂
What's going on with the subtitles being auto generated?
My question too. I love the channel. And I am slightly hard of hearing so always have the subtitles on. This is the first time I have seen them this bad
Unfortunately that's how the TH-cam Closed Captions program runs. Isaac (&contributors) do so very well to make the whole SFIA as accessible as possible. I'm sure that given time this issue would be resolved to a reasonably satisfactory levels.
Try watching NFL highlights on YT, that's some hilariously bad CC there.
@@markmccullough6921 You misunderstand. None of his previous videos have been auto generated. You can really tell when he goes off script some word don't match at all or contraction are or aren't used in the voice vs subtitle
I don‘t understand his „english“.
Yay! love these Fermi Paradox episodes!
Excellent series by the way !!!!!!!
CC: the foamy paradox
voidremoved - he pronounced it that strange way.
@@gurtner9 It's not "strange" to he who pronounces his words,.. Isaac, he with a speech impediment, but it does confuse the "tiny brain" of the CC interpreter/computer in sometimes amusing ways!!
*The Tyranids want to know your location*
Every video is better than the previous one... Thanks a lot Arthur
The problem with the "nonzero chance of enemies outweighing a chance of friends, therefore no colonization" idea is that a lack of colonization most likely guarantees your eventual extinction as your star ages...
Is there an existential crisis filter where meaning is lost and society collapses?
Sounds a bit like a precursor event in Stellaris, where a civilization somehow discovers the universe is overwhelmingly likely to be simulated, so they just commit mass suicide.
I think he actually had a video called "suicidal aliens". If you solved all your problems and had an eternity of crap to look forward to, there would come a point where you might end it all.
I think the whole concept of existential crisis is rubbish, personally. It sounds like a protective mechanism built into certain religions...
@@medexamtoolsdotcom ...Unless you had social media to rely on, and waste an infinity of time...
Fermi paradox solution:
Making FTL tech results in the big bang, resetting the universe.
Cloverfield Paradox-esque
Groundhog galactic year?! XD
why would it reset? reset implies repetition. apply nature and observable reality instead of ideology. nothing resets, old universe gets killed, pushed aside and its energy 'eaten' by the new one, ultimately being replaced with it, which would suggest on the outside of universe there's a theoretically infinite amount of debris from long dead universes.
the nature of life is not one of death, nor is it of death and rebirth. it's of death and replacement.
@@user-kc2fu8iw3v
Death and replacement is essentially the same as death and rebirth... :\
Personally broke the universe twice already
Dude your content is amazing. Great just great.
3 years ago you predicted within 65 years that we could protect ourselves from Asteroids. This year the DART mission proved that not only is a possibility but very doable with current technology.
Asimov's 3 laws: Megaman enters the chat.
That moment when you realize living in a Lovecraftian universe might be a better lot because at least there's alien species there that have survived for millions of years
Lovecraftian cosmology is pretty weird too^^
Isaac - "...the causality and the light speed limit, which now that I think about is exactly like our current situation."
Thus Isaac takes one step closer to the cliff precipice of time deletion.
Isaac Arthur, I've watched and enjoyed many of your videos (many dozens, or a hundred). Thank you!
Please consider the following idea for a future episode: Start by assuming a nuclear war breaks out this year or next and apply your intuition to step through the events that you feel would occur. Devote an entire episode to step through everything.
The key thing in my opinion that would serve the viewers (in a major way) is to let them know what it is going to be like, within their lifetimes to either live through the nuclear war, or I guess not make it through.
Most important, your current power of speculation, a combination of your imagination plus critical thinking would likely give us a realistic depiction of nuclear war among the major powers in 2020, or 2021. I also (I think) would benefit from the application of your talents on this subject.
In my opinion it doesn't matter the state of affairs in existence at the very end of your video on this subject (if you were to do the full length video on this subject). You could leave the story any way you like and I personally wouldn't mind if it ends in gloom and doom, I just would like to get better information on what can happen. I think you're an excellent author to walk through the blow by blow series of events followed by a depiction of what remains and an estimate of what life would be like afterward, including how mankind responds after the first global thermonuclear war has occurred.
Here's my further attempt at trying to sell this idea (that you do an episode devoted solely to this one subject): Today as we sit at our computers numerous countries are back to mass production of thermonuclear weapons. The story out in the past few days is that China is now doubling their number of fielded warheads (include some ironic comment about how this does such a beautiful job of making the Chinese people safer)...
I remember the Cuban Missile Crisis, as it happened. I was six years old and I remember all of that vividly. Everyone was scared. I was scared at the time. There was such an incredible sense of relief as the crisis ended. Younger people who haven't been through that might not appreciate what it feels like to live in a city (in my case, L.A.) when global thermonuclear war is starting.
Part of my sales pitch is: think of what information you convey that is most useful for your viewers. You apply skill and imagination and you help people understand some of the important possibilities. Well there are about 7,000 thermonuclear warheads ready to launch right now, on Earth. A misunderstanding could trigger their use. Accidents happen. There's some finite chance that all countries with these weapons end up launching/dropping all of the warheads.
Because these warheads are ready for launch now, shouldn't their launch be considered likely enough, or possibly more likely than a number of other Science Fiction scenarios that we're considering?
Thanks.
Cheers!
Now we're talkin
Maybe there is a hell after all... Warhammer 40k, Event Horizon, Doom etc.
Love your videos, thank you.
Another great video!
"Also, people like to live."
Gen Z: "about that"
Can you do a video on the most credible scientific research into the paranormal (such as what was done in PEAR labs, demonstrating that conscious observation had a small but measurable effect on random physical events) and it's potential impact on far future technology?
Would be a fun addition to the "things that will never exist" series.
FirstRisingSouI Something I've always wanted to ask those skeptical seemingly for it's own sake, I have to ask what it would evidence would it take besides something obvious like reciting incantations over to convince you? The research done at PEAR was as methodologically credible as anything out of Princeton. I mean the lengths they went to to ensure there was no possible interference that could explain the seemingly spontaneous order out of random events were over the top, and even if they hadn't the results were to complex to reasonably be explained by any kind of accidental interference from the outside world besides conscious observation (predictably different results with two subjects as opposed to one, when the two subjects knew each other all while staring at random number generators, the final nail in the coffin should have been people producing order in pre-recorded series of randomly generated numbers). I mean I think I get it, I remember when my family left religion, if you travel down the paranormal rabbit hole long enough it simultaneously becomes more convincing and absurd, throwing the very foundations of everything we think we know about the Universe and our place in it, far more comforting to blindly dismiss it than to begin to attempt to integrate such unexplainable (yet well documented) events, explaining that one quote (can't remember the name of the scientist, but the contest was he was giving his opinion on the findings of PEAR labs) "I wouldn't believe it even if it were true".
Gravel Pit Lol, really? I mean obviously you think the idea of the paranormal is crazy, but what reason do you have to believe I'm just as nuts as you think my ideas are?
Shot in the dark here, Isaac. As a big fan of aircraft I recently stumbled onto the Wikipedia page for the B83 nuclear bomb (from the old A-7 Corsair II) and it states in it's uses that it could be tied together into a package of six weapons set to max output and used to knock an asteroid out of collision course.
I know it's a long shot, and you probably have a huge backlog but a video explaining how we might stop an asteroid using modern equipment would be fascinating and probably remove some fear from some people (or double it lol.)
Either dead silence is being enforced (hostile aliens), we’re the only player in the game (our observable universe is simulated), or everyone’s staying home playing theirs (everyone spins virtual realities rather than expand). Or a combination of these.