The Fermi Paradox: Extinction
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 ก.ย. 2024
- The Fermi Paradox ask us how in a Universe so vast and ancient we seem to be the only intelligent civilization around, with no older interstellar alien empires visible in the galaxy. But could extinction play a role in that, or might extinction events instead drive evolution forward?
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Credits:
The Fermi Paradox: Exctinction
Episode 204, Season 5 E37
Written by:
Isaac Arthur
Editors:
Darius Said
Jerry Guern
Keith Blockus
S. Kopperud
Cover Art:
Jakub Grygier www.artstation...
Graphics by:
Bryan Versteeg spacehabs.com
Jarred Eagley
Jeremy Jozwik www.artstation...
LegionTech Studios
Sergio Botero www.artstation...
Tristan3D
Produced & Narrated by:
Isaac Arthur
Music Manager:
Luca DeRosa - lucaderosa2@live.com
Music:
Lombus, "Cosmic Soup" lombus.bandcam...
Aerium, "Farewell, photon" / @officialaerium
Dan MacLeod, "Battle Formation" / neptuneuk
Chris Zabriskie, "The Temperature of the Air on the Bow of the Kaleetan" chriszabriskie.com
Lombus, "Doppler Shores" lombus.bandcam...
Marcus Warner, "Ends of the Earth" marcuswarnermu...
Reign Pagaran, "Distant Voyager"
![CAMPปลิ้น | EP.82[1/2] แก๊ง 3 สาวเพื่อนซี้บุก CAMPปลิ้นครั้งนี้ห้ามเสียอาการ](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/_6WUjXHe1TM/mqdefault.jpg)
Has it been 5 years already? Crazy!
Thanks for half a decade of great content Sir
Amen to that!
@@mizzshortie907 tt
@@mizzshortie907 tt
@@mizzshortie907 ttt
.5Tttt5t
Happy early Birthday Isaac been watching you for around 4 years time flies. To many more years of intriguing thoughts and success on the channel and in your life.
Awesome episode I’m the most intrigued by your Fermi paradox episodes followed closely by the outward bound episodes.
Just discovered this channel. Such fantastic videos! Thanks!
Digitizing minds and sending them to nearby stars as the explorers is a key theme of the "Adrift on a Sea of Stars" series.
"...every civilization invents a cool tech that destroys them.."
Krell machines? ;)
I can't even remember the last time I heard someone reference the Krell. Seeing your comment will enhance my happiness level for several days.
FP is still my fav movie. ;)
Favorite content on TH-cam without 1 doubt.
Happy early birthday Isaac!!! You and my son share 9-20!
Never apologize for long episodes, we love them.
Dear Isaac, Happy Birthday and thank you so much for sharing your knowledge with the world. In particular thank you for the seriousness and the amount of research behind every episode you make. Please continue, all the best and once more Happy Birthday to you :-)
Thank you for these video Isaac.
'Dyson Dilemma' question : Let's say dismantling stars and using 'small scale' fusion power is more efficient and common. You mention they will still be visible and could be potentially easier to spot, but can you elaborate on how we might detect this? Would it simply be the same form of observation as searching for Dyson swarms? (I.e. search sky for bright areas in infrared which are dark otherwise)
What is the limit on temperature of the expelled heat? Is there any chance this could approach the microwave background?
Fascinating topic!
If it’s so abundant that it would cause problems with the CBM it would be detected on there
Even more reasons to like Issac Arthur, we share a Birthday. Have yourself a Happy Birthday and thanks for another great episode. Cant wait to us Issac as my advisor in my Stellaris game this weekend too
The Elephant in Room of Great Filters, no one wants to admit that we might still have Great Filters ahead of us, even ones we may not be able to see coming. It sours the stomach of everyone talking about it, but I suppose it is important that we do.
A drink, a snack, my grinder, and my bong with the 5 gram party bowl! I'm ready...
I'm of the idea that we're not alone, not by any means, yet we'll never know of most of the "others' out there because they all exist in states we cannot comprehend, and most likely will never be able to.
Sir where do u get such awesome visuals from?
Do a video on 'isolated aliens.' Species that remain on the very edge of biological being and that are so advanced that they travel either alone or in very small groups in highly advanced nigh impervious arks. That could explain their apparent absence if intelligent life is common.
Congratulations of five years, Isaac (and team!). As I watched today I couldn't help but wonder if an answer to the Dyson dilemma might stem from the fact that the relative ease of detecting such civilizations makes them unattractive for that very reason? I know you have addressed shy or "hidden" civilizations before, but the fact that we can almost rule out megastructure civilizations within a billion years or so seems to suggest, at the very least, a near-total aversion to being "seen" by anyone else (if they exist at all and have space-faring technology). Either that, or, as I love to postulate to my friends -- we may be (among) the first to evolve a space-faring technology. I'm open to new information, obviously, but the longer I watch your channel, the more I suspect we may be the progenitors after all and all the future tech we love to ponder here at SFIA is simply tech we-as-founders haven't started using yet.
Fantastic episode Isaac!
Happy birthday Isaac!
11:25 Wouldn't it it be more akin to a fourfold increase in searchable space rather than eightfold as, at least on the intragalactic rather than intergalactic scale, most galaxies are least partially flattened so there isn't as much above and below you as there is to your sides, front, and back? This would mean, at least for spiral galaxies and other flat galaxies, you are searching along a plane rather than a volume, correct?
Isaac, with 200+ episodes - where to get started?
I usually just suggest picking a video or playlist that particularly grabs your attention, most reference other videos that relate to some bit we skim over for time to serve as the next to watch :)
Even the idea that a species is a collection of organisms able to reproduce and create fertile offspring is flawed
Camels and Llamas, 2 species from _different continents_ (and different genus) are capable of not only hybridization, but those hybrids (called Camas) are _not_ sterile
Haappy early birthday!!
Hate to ask a stupid question but where does one find the outro, Reign Pagaran, Distant Voyager?
Isaac Arthur ❤️
Congrats to Jason
Well congratulations to your friend for getting married, and to you for living a totally arbitrary length of time!
Semi-arbitrary, it makes sense to track time on orbits.
Does anybody else to play elite dangerous? I keep wondering how we can get the developers of that game to start tossing in some mega structures.
Star citizen seems like another prime candidate although I haven't tried that one yet.
it feels like all the most interesting science fiction games are thinking too small!
Happy Birthday and happy channelversay! This channel has come so far and keeps going farther! Thanks for the hours and hours of pure enjoyment.
I guess it is quite randomly asking but does anyone know of a good site to stream new movies online?
@Louie River Flixportal :P
@Noel Enoch thanks, I went there and it seems to work =) I really appreciate it !
@Louie River glad I could help :)
Happy Birthday Isaac!
Isaac confirmed what I have long suspected; he does this (at least in part) because he wants good books to read in the future.
And who doesn't want good books? Hollywood could learn something from Isaac, too
Like atomic rockets.
@@databanks Hollywood needs to be expelled 110th time
My brother is a popular Sci-Fi writer, and I know for a fact he draws inspiration from this channel.
@@abcdjhffkuggf Which one? It is OK to name drop among friends.
Too much "sci fi" now days over-borders on fantasy, OK but some of us like our sci fi heavy on the sci.
I found this channel a couple of few years ago while i was in the hospital near death fighting off a super rare lung infection 2 surgeries partial lung removal and 6-8 weeks of i.v. antibiotics 18 hrs a day i couldnt do much i literally would spend all day every day listening hoping to fill my mind with as much as i could before i died. However, i luckily got better and your voice and content literally helped save my life and continues to help my mind and body recover from that tramatic event. Just wanted to thank you and for you to know how much these videos mean. Thanks Arthur for taking me to other worlds and entertaining me.
How are you doing now Achilles
Same, actually! Fucking nosocomial, multidrug resistant gram negative bacteria...
Grabbed myself a drink and snack. Ready to watch.
Isaac is definitely a corporate shill for big snack
Yeah, drink🍻 and snack🌿 ready
-😂💙🇱🇷✝️
@@uTubeMeltsYourBrain Those weight loss programs and diabetes meds make a lot of billionaires you know...
Like anyone Fucking!! cares
@@benbaselet2026 don't need fad diets, I have fibromyalgia, one symptom of mine is I never feel hungry.
Seems alcohol goes very well with Issac Arthur's voice. Southern comfort, both rich and smooth.
Grabbing the coffee and popcorn for another Arthursday.
Corn Pop? Didn't Joe Biden take care of him when he was young during the civil war? And don't mention Caffir, that's not acceptable anymore.
I wont destroy the likes...
Yuck. Coffee doesn't go with popcorn 😂
Pfft! Black Russians and sardines or gtfo.
@@adkinsyum YES IT DOES - I know a lot of people that when they are high they love coffee and popcorn, myself included.
The rare intelligence hypothesis seems like the most logical explanation to me
I doubt there is only one overwhelming factor. In fact, I don't believe it is a paradox.
I think rare intelligence is somewhat of a misnomer. Rare technology seems more appropriate.
Problem with that is, that if ever once a space traveling civilization occurred, it should be all over the place now. The Milky Way is only 100 000 light years across, so colonizing stars at a speed of 0.1% of the speed of light (which is roughly the speed of Parker Solar Probe as it whips around the Sun at periastron) then one can travel from one edge of the Milky Way to the opposite in 1% of the age of the universe. so, why hasn't anyone done that already, in a way we can detect? Anyway one turns this problem, there's no solution. It's horribly frustrating. Terrible. Horrible. Terrible again. As my chess teacher keeps telling me.
@@bjorntorlarsson 300 km/s is the slow speed for a direct nuclear fusion drive. If they mastered artificial nuclear fusion and provided they had viable sites for deuterium - helium - 3 extraction then they could build colonial ships that would easily reach 2% of the speed of light with a low amount of fuel relative to the empty cargo of the spacecraft. it would include carcass, engines, and the payload capable of sustaining the colonists for long and long if necessary. At 2% the speed of light they could choose not to go far, say within a radius of 20 years - light from their home system still enough room for 100 Solar Systems and reach the furthest in 1000 years of travel located 20 years - light. Hydrogen-hydrogen fusion is artificially beyond our thinking to be controllable in an artificial fusion reactor, stars with masses of 7.5% of solar mass can do this fusion because they have enough mass to support themselves. But nothing limits a kind of achieving the fusion of deuterium - lithium, or deuterium-deuterium reproduction or combinable fusions of helium-3 or deuterium-helium-3, to use either for energy production or for long-term interstellar propulsion, because they are extremely easier to do than proton-proton fusion.
And any place that has a gas giant out there is a walking gas station for helium-3 and deuterium.
Deuterium exists anywhere in the Solar System that contains volatiles of hydrogen. Conservatively imagine that the average per potential civilization is on the order of 1 to 10 million stars in the galaxy. If each of them decided to explore and colonize at most 100 stars, that would still leave 9,999,900 stars of their own for every potential civilization. .
It is also worth remembering that the Solar System is not the Earth, Earth is just a naturally ready world of the Solar System. If we take the Solar System as a whole not including the Sun, we have a real immeasurable reserve of resources. Some of these civilizations may decide not to colonize another star, thus staying in their own home permanently while traveling through the galaxy with their planets and their mother star, others may wish to colonize only 5 stars in order to guarantee their existence if any of the 5 Systems is destroyed by some extremely rare event. There is a video on Isaac Arthur's channel about the colonization of Jupiter and another colonizing Neptune, in which both civilization could take advantage of the vast resources of deuterium and helium-3 of these planets to feed artificial suns, could have high sufficiency comparable to an empire of fiction. indefinitely and would be an independent System within the Solar System.
Yes, that hypothesis grabs you after elections, scanning the 'news' in the supermarket checkout line and the like.
These videos are like an opiate for the future possibility loving mind. And I'm addicted.
Yep! I burned through the three years of Isaac's content in a couple months when I first discovered this here channel.
Now I'm saving all my money to build a O'Niel Cylinder. Screw Planets.
5 years of consistently putting out some of the best and most informative series on this theoretical stuff. I stand in awe of your brain, my good sir.
Happy 5th Anniversary!!!! I am not sure exactly when I found you, but you only had 1.4K subscribers when I did. Its been awesome watching this channel grow. You have expanded the minds of myself and my now 15 year old daughter and I am sure many thousands more. What a gift you and your fine content have been. Thank you Mr. Arthur. This is by far my favorite subject or yours, the Fermi Paradox. On to the show.... YAY!!!!!!!
I wasn't far ahead of you. I was just under 500 subscribers and it grew exponentially in the few months that followed.
The first rule of warfare: Never forget your drinks and snacks
IME the First Rule of Warfare is: always bring a good supply of Snickers bars.
^Deserves to be added in Murphy's list
Actually its never underestimate your enemy but close enough!
@@brainwashingdetergent4128 Without a good supply of Snickers you may never last long enough to see the enemy!
@@simontmn while theyre loading up on snickers ill be busting heads and taking those snickers and dose sneakers 😂😂
Awful instant coffee and a destroyed vending machine pop tart... sometimes you gotta make due with what you’ve got.. the saving grace is a Fermi paradox episode!! Happy Arthursday!
yuck to the pop tart, but you gotta do what you gotta do, right? Worth the torture to get a good Arthursday video
McHeartattack in a sack and a milkshake.
I got to get a better class of friends. Would give anything to have conversations about the Fermi Paradox with others
same buddy
I'm almost 50 and have been "like this" my whole life. Unfortunately it's rare to find people, even intelligent professional ones, who take an interest in topics like the Fermi Paradox. It's not a question of better or worse, they're good people who have a lot of knowledge and expertise in the things they do take an interest in. It's just that we're a little out on the fringes. At first this felt kind of socially isolating. But as I've aged and learned how to broach topics like these with the uninitiated, people began to find me interesting if maybe a bit eccentric. As a result I get invited to lots of social events because they know the conversation is almost certain to take some unexpected twist that everyone ends up enjoying.
Sometimes having this kind of "oddball" personality has worked well for me. My tendency to get temporarily fascinated (obsessed?) with a subject has turned to nutrition and fitness. I have no control over this, for whatever reason a subject grabs my attention and I begin to voraciously consume every bit of info I can find on it until I'm satisfied - autism? Maybe a touch... Anyway, as a result I look like a freakish picture of fitness compared to my peer group of middle aged American men which is, unfortunately, filled with spindly arms and pot bellies. Box jumping onto a picnic table is like a magic trick at this age haha!
As usual, I've begun to ramble. My point is I never did find more than just a few friends to sit around and have deep discussions about the multiverse with, but I did find a group of friends that loves me for the fact I'll throw a few key concepts of the multiverse into a conversation and completely derail it lol.
I can't talk about history, climate change or late stage capitalist without being labelled a commie. And those are everyday subjects that people ought to know. Imagine talking about Kardashev 3 civilizations and how we expected at least one to be visible to us by now.
@@LuizAlexPhoenix IT IS THE KARDASHIAN AND GORBACHEV INVISIBLE EXO-TICS OF CITOPLASMA THAT OPERATE WITH OLEP THAT ORIGINATED IN THE EXOPOLETICS TACTICAL R.A.M. ARMS LINKED TO MARS
Try local gaming clubs. They are the subculture seen in the big bang. I've seen many a 40k battle take up half a gym.
One of the flaws with the Fermi Paradox theory is the conclusion that high tech civilizations will build Dyson Swarms. A 'Kardashev 2 capable" civilization may never have the need for that much energy or may find an artificial source of energy more efficient than massive arrays of solar collectors.
That only lengthens the time it takes. Maybe you go super efficient, and your civilization only uses a few watts of energy per person. _(The average human uses 100 as part of resting metabolic processes.)_ As long as your population keeps growing, you still will eventually start to see full scale Dyson swarms blocking out stars. If your civilization has some clarketech or cultural norms that cause them to go intergalactic before their local population increases to the point that stars start going dark, even then, migration away from the home galaxy has to meet or exceed the local population growth rate, or you start to see stars going dark. Even in the case where the migration rate is high enough, eventually the home galaxy will become surrounded by heavily populated galaxies, to the point where stars start to become fully surrounded.
@@ergohack you have a well thought out and detailed argument and I won't argue the fine details. However, the underlying assumption is that alien civilizations last a really, really long time. All of recorded human history is barely 10,000 years and there have been many calamities in that short time frame that have caused civilizations to rise and fall and populations to plummet. We have only had a really fast growing population for about two centuries and its unclear that current rates will continue indefinitely even with continued technological advances. Its hard to imagine a civilization lasting for 10,000 years let alone a million years. Many of the colonies of a space-faring civilization may fail and the others will lose cohesion before forming a Type 3 Kardashev Civilization or even forming Type 2 Civilizations around their stars. Building a Dyson Swarm requires a civilization to survive for timescales that dwarf anything we've ever seen on Earth.
@@davidrosner6267
If we achieve technological levels allowing pratically immortality from natural death and access to the nearly infinite resources of space, the main reasons that agrarian societies fell would be mitigated. That is the big thing, it would be such a drastic change that we couldn't use anything else as serious guidance.
@@LuizAlexPhoenix your argument assumes scarcity is the only factor limiting population growth. People in a post scarcity society can still fight and kill each other over arrogance and pride as humans have found reason to do throughout history even without considering competition over limited resources. A high tech post scarcity society will unbelievably powerful weapons of mass destruction capable of reducing populations by orders of magnitude. Catastrophic natural disasters in space such as exploding supernovae, gamma ray bursts or even stray comets and meteors can achieve the same population reducing effect. There is also the question of whether people who have overcome physical aging and achieved centuries long lifespans would still feel the same incentive to produce offspring to pass on their genes. Even in most modern first world countries, reproduction has fallen below replacement levels among the wealthy. In a post-scarcity society, people may be even less focused on traditional family building.
There may be a lot of stay at home post scarcity civilizations since they will have everything they need right at home.
David Rosner totally agree. Dyson spheres and swarms and whatever are just some goofy ideas people came up with. We have no real way of knowing what ultra advanced intelligence and alien minds would think up, or how they would approach things. It's like asking a caveman how modern man would wage war. He'd have no fucking clue, and assume it must be based on sweet next gen sticks and rocks.
Isaac's birthday is the same day as the Area 51 raid.
Coincidence?!
Yeah. Probably
Isaac pulled it off - it may be the first time I hear an in-video add and think something positive (" I'll check it out") instead of "damn add...."... this is meant as a compliment!
Someone has to be first, or at least the most clever. A galactic joke: What if it is us?
Congrats. It's yours. Enjoy the maintenance, sucker.
God has a nasty sense of humour eh?
Ag3nt0fCha0s - I had the exact same thought! God is a wicked practical joker!
@@ColdHawk come to think of it, that explains the mosquito...
@Cool Breeze Someone has, don't know who.
Congrats on 5 years.
Here's to many more.
Have you ever considering turning your various series into books?
Wow, I've never been this early before!
Happy birthday, Isaac! I hope people like you never get extinct!
I see u are a Foundation fan, have u read the newer books, Greg Bear wrote one as well, a tribute to Asimov.
Great videos Isaac, just great.
Heard the first three as audio books and found them a letdown. The first two very good, but the third essentially retconned the first two to be bad. The entire concept was cheapened by the second foundation. It just became platos republic but in space.
Never been so early. Keep up the good work Isaac!
Evolution is like Missile Command: There's no victory and the game only ends with extinction.
Great episode Isaac! I’m really looking forward to next week’s episode on Aloof Aliens. It’s important for us to remember that the “laws of physics” are a human invention to explain the universe and while I believe we’ve got it down pretty well at this point, there’s still quite a bit that we likely don’t understand and the options for our potential neighbors may be difficult for us to see or consider.
Always listening in bed. Mostly mit miss the last 5 minutes, but love the positive, optimistic tone.
13:24 actually we don't know if they indeed reached the level of an advanced civilization, because all structures eventually fall into layers of dirt deepening into the Earth, turned into molten rock , and emerging later to continue the cycle. The planet recycles everything. The fact that we have some fossils is actually extremely lucky, because is matter that didn't follow the cycle. Perhaps dinosaurs had a nuclear apocalypsis and the remaining ones lived as savages, and those are which we found.
Downloading for a short flight. I am in for a treat
Looong episode!! Yay! Also, happy bday in advance! You the man!
"For advanced civilizations -- even at our level -- genetic mutation is no longer a big factor. We could, if we wished to, keep our basic gene template for billions of years, since DNA printing allows you to store that genetic data digitally and avoid the equivalent of copy fatigue."
Issac, why is it that no one ever explained this simple fact to Samantha Carter and the Asgard? LOL
Anthony Hargis If you watched Stargate Atlantis, there is “young” Asgard serving in the human fleet, so I can assume between the predecessor’s body that was found and the research done by Loki’s illegal experiments, they did in fact find an answer to their genetic problem by the end of the series. Asgardians survive.
@@MarsStarcruiser Sooo what video are YOU watching? Samantha Carter, herself, explained it as "making a copy of a copy of a copy," which goes AGAINST what Issac said here. AND Thor, Heimdall and Freyer each explained it the same way.
As I recall, the Asgard in the Pegasus galaxy SEPARATED from the Asgard in the Ida galaxy because of disagreements on the way to handle their situation. And I don't recall the Asgard in the Pegasus galaxy being quite as "nice" as the Asgard in the Ida galaxy.
So, looking at what was ACTUALLY SAID in Star Gate SG1 AND by what Issac said above, just WHAT conversation are you taking part in? My question was LEGIT; the Asgard of SG1 seemed to not know ANYTHING of what Issac said that WE are capable of, even NOW, much less in the future, OR when we are as advanced as the Asgard were SUPPOSED to be.
So, the writers of SG1 . . . got it completely wrong. JUST because they were tired of the Asgard and wanted to write them out of the show. Which seems to have ended the show.
Happy Birthday Isaac, in case you weren't aware it's also International Talk Like a Pirate Day as well! Yarrrrr! :)
Shiver me timbers such a day gives me a mental splinter.
Yarrrr! It is also the day me plunder Area 51.
You need to get on the Joe Rogan Experience!
@NEAR TERM EXTINCTION - HUMAN
No social ladder if you redistribute wealth in post scarcity.
Have you read The Fifth Science by Exurb1a? It's a series of short stories that follow the rise and fall of the Galactic Human Empire, and it touches on the same concept you brought up.. the empire collapses, but two worlds survive independent of each other. They have evolved different cultures and even slightly different anatomy. From these worlds, humanity expands again. The original group died off, but humanity, as "a" species, survived.
There a load of crap
I love your channel and have watched nearly every episode! I have a suggestion for a future episode that I just thought of while listening to this one. You often talk about civilizations with complete Dyson swarms. I'm curious what effect that seemingly endless energy supply would have on a developing civilation such as ours. What things would we do differently? How much would that help us expedite our advancements?
Thank you Isaac, keep up the great content!
Oh my goodness, I went back and watched that original Megastructures intro and the production values of the show have risen as exponentially as some of SFIA's scenarios! Congratulations on 5 years!
Cool background music this time, Isaac!
I want to congratulate you on improving your lisp. I listened to some of your earlier videos, and in this video you can clearly hear a difference in your pronunciation. Your videos are intellectual and informative. I am definitely a fan.
"Birthdays and calendar changes."
*the world ended in 2012 change my mind*
Ian m banks culture series changed my life. Ive read each book many times. My father got me into it. We recommend it to anyone who will listen. My dad had surgery recently, and found a nurse who reads sci fi and told her she has to read the culture series. Im glad you reference them often. Makes me so happy.
It was the reference to IMB in this video that decided me to subscribe to the channel just now. I've long been a fan of his books, and like you have read each one multiple times.
@@fburton8 Nope. Don't get it. Over-extended and un-engrossing for me. Good luck sieving through science fiction for others. Not jealous, just trying to write in my own style.
I all get a bit bored of them halfway through
@@michaelking9818 yea the action is very short lived.
man i'm already hyped for the winter on venus episode. the "terraforming/colonizing [planet name]" episodes tend to be my favorites and venus sounds like a really cool one to cover
I'll watch it, but I don't see Venus to be a good prospect for heavy development. The sun gets hotter as it ages. It is estimated that in 1 billion years it will begin to boil Earth's oceans. Venus being closer... Mars is a much better candidate to try to turn into Earth 2.0. And then supplement it with rotating habitats.
what if civilization and interstellar travel is actually common, but we ended up going the tech route of digitizing out civilization into a simulation, and we've long forgotten that we have done so, and now live inside a simulation unable to break free from it
Attempting to listen to this whilst working on 3D models in Blender.
the idea that a civilization will unavoidably build a dyson swardm/sphere its a HUGE logic leap, there are countless other possibilities that don't involve extinction.
such as?
57seconds into video published. that's fastest one for me yet.
Why do we assume that waste heat needs to be radiated in a spherical omnidirectional manner? If you have enough energy to tank the inefficiency you could use some kind of heat pump and cool all your surfaces and reject the heat in a beam (heat exchanger and parabolic ir mirror). Now if want to stay mostly invisible you just aim at the great voids or simply where you can't see any stars right?
I close my eyes...and hear Barry Kripkie from The Big Bang theory talking...
My personal semi-educated opinion is that life of some form will turn out to be somewhat common in our region of the universe, maybe on the order of 1 in 100 or 1 in 1000 solar systems, but that technological civilizations are going to turn out to be quite rare, especially since evolution and life does not necessarily favor it. Dinosaurs, as far as we know, never formed a technological civilization in hundreds of millions of years, the pressures and random chance just didn't lead there. Humans are the only data point on technological civilizations we have. There is no way to formulate a real likelihood there. Its also only in the last 100 years that humans have achieved technology to send radio out in to space and only 60 or so years to send craft into space. If humans happen to be faster than average in intelligence leading to space fairing technology it could skew the expected outcomes a lot.
This seems to be the most likely explanation. But as you said: We have no way to formulate a likelihood. We just know to little as of yet.
New video from elmer fudd thanks
It's very hard to absorb anything he's saying. Its a pity, the titles of the videos are so damn good but the actual content is hard to listen to
@@AInfrEEzebr My mother feels the same way. It's odd because I have excellent hearing and am usually very bothered by mispronunciations, but somehow I am very comfortable listening to Issac Arthur's speech impediments. :-)
Real Fermi solution is that civilization never reaches interstellar tech because the devs balance patch before you get too OP
There is the theory that we 'live' in a simulation. If it is possible to build a simulation of the universe complete enough to have stimulants that in turn can run their own simulations, then the probability is that simulations would greatly outnumber real I universe. Supporting evidence is the holographic principle. Also in Minecraft (a java game) you can construct a 6502 processor and ram. Java has been ported to the 6502 architecture, meaning you could run minecraft (very slowly thought) on this simulated 6502, and then load the world containing the simulation into it. And so on.
that final bit about cultural replacement and birthrates is EXACTLY what's happening right now in europe and america
The Mormons may Inherit the Earth.
The 2 factions who will inherit the earth are the Haredi ultra Orthodox Jews, and the Super conservative Anabaptist Mennonites/Amish. Do your research before you subscribe to irrational thoughts, any immigrants to Europe/America will have low fertility rates within a generation or 2, while these groups have had consistently high birth rates for hundreds of years and are Just now numbering in the hundreds of thousands/soon to be millions
Advanced civilization may be immune to natual disaters, but what about more primitive one?
More primitive always winning. Because of survival high levels of quality.
@@gkar909 "survival high levels of quality"? If you mean they are "fitter" them you don't know how evolution works. It's all about adapted to specific enviroment and certain ecological niche. When this enviroment is drastically changing the strongest mostly aren't the one with the biggest chances of survival.
@@pawenowicki3871 For example spiders. They are everywhere. Travel in air without wings. Going under water within breathing apparatus. In Arctic conditions within dress. And eat each other with ease. Or that moss bear travelling in space within equipment.
@@gkar909 I was writting about technologically primitive civilization not primitive organisms.
@@pawenowicki3871 O yes those ones. Borders. Wars. Spying. Lying. And technologies. Sources. Intellectual intelligence. Against stone axes.
Disasters. It's depending on the sort of thing. Global warming against Biblical floods, Ice era. Nobody knows what kind of disaster coming next, because clock is ticking nearer centre of galaxy very speedy and not away from it. Earth rotation get slower. Were to go to. Mars. Just first steps. Only quantity of human beings make sense. Maybe someone survive. It's depends on the place untouched by disaster. And many factors after.
Thinking about WHY humans don't see many or any higher civilizations, it may be because the goal isn't to remain in the current dimension... If one had the technology, the aim would be the higher realms, to build technology that would allow one into the 4d worlds and onwards. Alternate world and dimension traveling seems like the next step.
Note: I am not one of those spiritualists, logic just seems to point to existence in a different plane if technology would allow it. Heck I'd like to traverse time like a mountain if a dimension allowed it.
How does immortality and investment work as a solution to the Fermi paradox and also dark matter? If there's value in dismantling stars to save the resources for later, and intelligent beings alive and capable of doing it, then someone will go around doing it. If they store matter at very low temperatures (i.e. they're not actively using it to build their civilization), then we'll see its gravitational effects, but it will just look like microwave background radiation. Does the known distribution of dark matter kill this idea? (i.e. if dark matter appears to be uniformly distributed instead of clustered, the way you'd expect it to be if life expands in all directions from its origins).
I recently found your channel and I’m so confused I have no clue where I start or where I end. I find it cute that this narrator speaks his “R’s” like you’d talk to a baby. He says the word emperors as “empewus” like a baby. Earth spoken as “Uwuth”. What if hes talking to us like a baby because hes millions of years more advanced like we goo goo ga ga our babies. LOL
My guess is that eukaryotes are almost completely unique to Earth.
Happy birthday from a guy who's birthday is one day before yours XD
Futurism Shower thought: Assuming FTL tech was possible the Dyson dilemma could become a non-Issue.
- First let's keep in mind the anthropic principle, if you're dead, you can't observe.
- Next let us assume that any civilisation to be capable of expanding super-luminal travel would probably be advanced enough to also colonise new world at a rate far exceeding the cosmic time-lines of light-lag.
- Next let us assume that over time any civilisation capable of expanding super-liminally will eventually do so, because of the inherent drive to expand evolution creates.
- Next up, "space is big", possibly arbitrarily big! Assuming that the universe is far, far larger than the observable universe then even if each planet had a 99% chance of having had produced an interstellar civilisation by now you would still expect entire galaxies (or even galactic super-clusters) without life. (This concept also works using Many-worlds-quantum mechanics.)
The conclusion is obvious, you cannot observe a civilisation that has colonised your dirt-ball and turned it into dyson-spheres. You also cannot observe a FTL civilisation mega-parsecs away because they are expanding faster than light and you cannot observe a civilisation that has already expanded into you because you would be dead. There is no state in which you would see the growing darkness of a dyson swarm, your only options are dead or oblivious and since in the vastness of the universe someone is bound to have evolved far enough away from anyone else to be oblivious thoose are the only refernce frames that say "Where are all the aliens!"
Now we just ignore the myriad of problems with this theory and put aside our existential dread.
If this is true we're back to "where are the aliens?" instead of "where are the dark spots in the sky?"
Still a dyson dilemma issue in that you'd probably get frontier cherry picking near you as folks race ahead to grab the juicest systems first, but no globe of expanding darkness. It doesn't really contradict the DD though, like all FTL it just exacerbates it because you now have to contemplate that any civilization anywher ein the Universe that got to our level even in the last million years would probably have gotten the whole universe colonized by now, so you need to explain why nobody was around 2 million years ago, let alone 2 billion.
Fermi's Paradox: Every one has worked out it is far better to be digital, and all move to live around Black Holes. They don't use need Star energy, and only need raw mater which they can get, wait for far far into the future. Like Sleeping Giants... But Digitally Awake.
Everyone's gonna celebrate your birthday by Raiding Area 51 Isaac!
Trevor Kirtland thankfully, that got called off. I'm glad, i wouldn't want to see anyone get hurt or arrested.
@@cluckeryduckery261 Thank you FBI agent.
Trevor Kirtland yeah. You got me. FBI agent over here. Definitely not just a normal person that recognizes it might be a really bad idea to storm a restricted military base...
I think that's for the Darwin winners. ☠️☠️☠️☠️☠️☠️☠️☠️☠️☠️☠️☠️☠️
Issac is on record for saying that a hidden government conspiracy is not a credible solution for the Fermi Paradox.
"You can't climb Darwin's ladder unless you are biologically prone to increase your numbers." It doesn't follow. That quality of bio evolution doesn't necessarily extend to tech civilizations. We note previously there was a prediction of human population explosion. It didn't really happen. It turned out, advanced societies tend to have fewer offspring per couple than primitive ones.
There is a way out of the firmi paradox. Perhaps only a few hundreds of millions of years ago, most of the universe was way too hostile for complex intelligent life. This would make only a small minority of galaxies candidates for complex life. Perhaps Earth and our civilization is part of the first generation of civilizations. This would make all civilizations only a few centuries ahead or behind us. The reason we would not see any of them because even just 1000 light-years away would be too far away for us to see advanced civilizations in all. I don't think intelligent life even on our level is common enough for multiple civilizations in even an entire section of our Galaxy. Ours would be in a 25000 radius of stars from earth.
"... and that should generally give you that expansionist leaning".
It always amazes me that Isaac draws the line here and refuses to examine his assumptions any deeper. Intellectually, he is more than capable of considering whether or not "expansionist leaning" could reasonably be extrapolated into absurdly long-term stellar engineering projects, leaving no room for these "leanings" to evolve away from a mindless biologically programmed expansion.
But since he's not even _brought up_ the likelihood of these hypothetical empires remaining steadfastly expansionistic over vast stretches of time, I can only conclude that he's too enamored with the Dyson scenario to ever risk deconstructing its basic assumptions. He skips the issue every damn time, taking it for granted: "Beyond assuming that civilizations have the desire to expand this way..."
A shell-style dyson sphere would absolutely just collapse into a star. its completely unworkable.
A dyson swarm however is likely. But the closer a dyson swarm gets to blocking energy from escaping a solar system, the less efficient each new part of the swarm becomes. There's a diminishing return on investment, so dyson swarms would likely reach an equilibrium between effort required to further the swarm and the energy return for doing so. They should peak out at a point where they still allow a substantial amount of energy to escape. They're not going to go full dark.
Another paradox for advanced civilizations, is that creativity (which allows for advancement) runs contrary to social uniformity (which eliminates conflict, but also smothers advancement), so there's a delicate balance that leads to advancing a civilization, wherein a civilization could error to either side of a narrow path of balance which gets narrower and more delicate the more advanced they become. Perhaps put another way, when you are technologically at the point that a kindergarten child could make a nuclear bomb, how do you keep a society safely uniform in intent? but also engender creativity for advancement?
My preferred possible solution to the Fermi Paradox is Galactic Habitability periods,the idea being that a galaxy has both habitable times and regions, requiring life to evolve at the right places and times to reach a point of technology that we'd be able to see them
This is the case where the simplest solution feels like the closest to the truth. And the simplest idea is that the whole "non-living matter suddenly becomes living" event is so rare that it only happens once per a million of universes. And I know that 4 billions of years ago the ocean on the Earth was that soup that allowed for that event to happen, but, I mean... So many things had to come together perfectly. The solution MOST likely is that the onservable universe is simply not big enough for life to form. The multiverse (whatever multiverse there is, maybe it's a kind of repeating time, maybe the one with infinitely distant bubbles of observability) however is big enough, so here we are, asking the question,and there are millions of other universes that don't have anyone to ask the question.
Arthur what are your thoughts about the przybylski's star? John Michael Godier recently posted a video about it, but I will love to hear/see a video with your thoughts about it; since you have a little more in depth perspectives.
Arthursday check, drink check, snack check and mind ready to be blown as per usual...check NOW LETS DO THIS
Happy birthday, man! Love your work, it isn’t easy to find material that’s a consistent intellectual challenge, yet you do so weekly. May it continue for many, many weeks to come!
I'd love to see you and XKCD do a collaboration of some kind. His tendency to approach from a weird angle, and your ability to crank it up to 12.
You're missing one possibility when discussing the Dyson Dilemma. It could be that intelligent species are predispositioned to not be expansionist since the ones that are tend to exhaust their planet's resources before becoming a type 1 civilization.
The idea that our ancestors couldn’t comprehend the age of the earth or thought its age was impossible is just wrong. Aristotle and Thomas Aquinas both thought it was possible the world was infinitely old.
I love talking with people about these ideas and getting responses like, "that is impossible" or "fanciful thinking", at least there will be plenty of candidates for cognitive augmentation.
Another classic, keep it going.
It still saddens me to think that we might be but a transient singular happenstance leaving no trace in the universe other than a few probes like voyager flying forever, never to be witnessed by any other being.