I did a Tesla DCF (and the results blew me away!)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 27 มิ.ย. 2023
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VERY interesting, as always. One big complaint. For an online presentation, the font choice, font size, and data formatting look like a “How Not To Present Data On Screen”. I have a 10” tablet and it is difficult to read the numbers. Use san serif fonts, larger, and bold for starters.
Very fair on the auto side, but I don't see how you can leave out the energy business that's currently growing faster than the autos?
Better to leave it out for now and whatever you get from it in the future are sprinkles on top.
@@grntigerblanket7750 But it won't be sprinkles. It will rival the auto business. I don't care who you are: you can't do a DCF of Tesla and ignore energy. You probably shouldn't ignore FSD or Bots either, but you absolutely need to include energy with at least 50% YOY growth for the next 5 years.
@@grntigerblanket7750 Sprinkles? I might be more then a trillion dollar sprinkles once battery supplys is not a problem and Elon start pushing it out to help alot of countries with their energy problems. Grid balancing etc etc. The upside is quite huge for this "sprinkle" on top.
@@grntigerblanket7750 I don't know why you'd 'sprinkle' something that is a virtual guarantee. It's not a "maybe it will pan out" kind of thing.
It’s included in the sales page in the excel
Add the energy, robotaxi network and Optimus (which are highly uncertain in terms of DCF) and it could be $1,500.
Thank you, Tom. I love your teaching style. Concise, fair and clear details anyone can follow. May God bless you and yours for you service to everyone interested in learning more about evaluating great companies.
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I don't use discount value.
Try an alternative simple way:
Settings:
Owner's Earnings per share based.
DCF year is proportional to CROIC. CROIC = 20%, means 20 years.
Growth = 0 and Discounted Rate = 0 because they are taken care of by CROIC.
Good bear case Tom! Didn't understand it, but got the message loud and clear.
Thanks again Tom. Steady DCA is way to go. Learnt that the hard way.
Hey Tom - Love the way you explained the Risk Adjustment here with the coin flip example. Brilliant !
👍
Seems reasonable and grounded in reality for the auto business. Anything from Energy, Insurance, AI, FSD, and Optimus will be icing on the cake. I'm already invested, in for the long run, holding right now, and ready to buy more if the price dips.
Similar approach
In my opinion, not financial advice, Tesla is the stock opportunity of the century AI will revolutionize the world as the internet did. Add a 20M per year car business, the largest charging network, Optimus, and an energy company. AMAZING.
Thanks!❤
Thanks!
Thanks Tom Nash
❤️
I pulled alot of cash out of realestate and bought Tesla at $300. I know that the macro economic market will switch back to risk on during this time period and my initial investment will 3x or likely more. You dont know if you will get another big dip in the stock price but you do know that the upside is absolutely huge.
The idea of "intrinsic value" is not very compelling. If you have no water, it becomes more valuable than gold. The question is, what is the best process for assessing investment opportunity? This ranges from graphing stock performance and making predictions to rigorous mathematical models including assumptions, future scenarios with probabilities, sensitivity analysis, etc. Rather than picking a price and justifying it, discussing what the models show and what variables are most important in the model's prediction would be most helpful. Thank you and Go Blue!
makes sense for the pure auto business but what about the startups? I would want to look at the other parts seperately and determine some sort of chance of success to see if there is a bet outside of hey the auto part is priced fairly right now.
Great! I think the $25k car in included implicitly as I don't think Tesla could keep growing at 50% CAGR to 2028 without that car.
Nice, I'll use this jsut for auto as you stated. Can you do one for PLTR? Apologies if I already missed it.
In order to evaluate accuracy of this DCF analysis for TSLA, could you please do the same for AAPL
Thank you and grandpa
All in to Tesla and hopefully retire in 10 years .
Energy should enter in that valuation due to its size
Something analysts simply don't do is look at a company and assess just where they fit within, not just their economic environment but the economy as a whole.
As in, where does your product or service fit within society, and how strong is your use case? Tesla, as a company, is such an outlier on so many facets technologically and culturally. There is literally no comparison e.g. Apple, Amazon and Microsoft none of them have the potential for profound economic and cultural change that Tesla does.
So for me this is a long term bet that only an idiot would not commit at least 10% of their net worth.
lol every thumbnail says 500 now
That's by design :D
What do the toenails say?
@@FrunkensteinVonZipperneck ooo, good one! Are your sure your not Amit?
This is going to age well lpl😂
Great video, but I can't read the charts or anything (on my Android phone...S22). Maybe I just need to see this on a computer.
It's quite insane that Tesla is at "fair value" only as an automaker. Tesla is not only an automaker. The recent supercharger partnerships is a great example. No other "automaker" has this, Tesla have been building it for a decade and now it starts to really pay off. Just wait until Tesla licenses their software/FSD, their batteries & drivetrains. In the EV future most cars on the roads will be Teslas, but some with different badges...
Oh and then energy business. And 100+ exaflop training cloud. And the robot...
So, with your analysis, this seems like a good time to sell covered calls??
What is the purpose of only taking the auto part? I think the biggest possibilities are in other sectors of the company, how would you do this valuation considering everything?
It’s done to build a conservative evaluation model
Its already run up big already .it should be abit of correction coming up. Risk adjusted sell some take some profit wait for it drop pick again
Or just hold brother, way better
GPT says: Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC): 15.59%.
What you don't say is that it looks like your model shows a 4.5X increase over the next 5 years for Automotive alone
I have 3 scenarios in there and all 3 are counter weighted with 14% discount rate which is ultra conservative
Tom said Optimus Prime. That's Transformers ;)
Look up the name of the actor who did his voice he has a brilliant Ted talk about it
Don’t dollar cost average on one company?
Can you do ENPHASE (ENPH)
You can submit specific stock review requests on our patreon
I thought your discount rate was normally 10%.
It’s calculated per company
Sounds about right. Everyone wants to price in all the things that haven’t happened. Robots, fsd, c truck, sub $30k car etc. I like the company just don’t expect to get rich overnight.
🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉
Not sure if Tesla don’t have any debts..
"Don't Click Nothing, Don't Like Nothing.... except my Patreon link"... 😅
Exactly 😊
👍
Solid evaluation. Cathie Wood should employ you to keep her meth-induced valuation nonsense at bay. All this chatter about ai, silly robots, and robo-taxis when 80% of the company's revenues comes from screwing cars together is ridiculous. The company can't even get FSD right and they're talking about sailing to Mars!!! FFS.
First! 🤘🏼
I think Tesla is over valued in terms of strictly a car company. But with technology, AI, FSD, energy and much more. I think Tesla is undervalued. No one can be competitive with them. At least not for quite some time
Sell PLTR , buy TSLA!
73% TSLA, 23% PLTR, 4% HIMS in my portfolio. Feel like I'm in a good spot, up 55% overall so far. Long term hold till 2030 at least.
Agree
So fair value when . $250 five years from now? Everything should be put in perspective. Also , “fair value “ by definition is always where it is . Remember, wherever you are , there you are . Wall street analysts, just reading tea leaves
wherever you are, there you are. Great philosophy. My phrase has always been, whoever you go, there you are.
Everyone seems to skip Energy (power plants mega packs power walls solar bidder software) and insurance
Look at the sales part in the excel my guy it’s literally there
No…these figures are way over conservative….the idea that Tesla is only worth the current value is fundamentally inaccurate.
The coming dominance of EVs, massive demand in coming years for autonomous taxis,AI applications across sectors and dominant market strategic position mean Teslas revenues will soar exponentially ….we will be looking at $700 to $1000a share within a couple of years, and probably a doubling of the price this year.Your forecasted cash flows way underestimate the expected growth in demand, and the discount rates are too high,and not good choices.
WACC has nothing to do with Teslas debt. It has to do with your own debt and your own cost of capital.
4th
Tesla's share price won't be as high as you might think, unless something big happens, success of Robo.FSD is rooled out with gov. approval, Elon is willing to sell a cheap car within two years here in the states, the cyber is not a flop?
🙄
are you high??? You make no sense
Beta