Bill Gates on AI and the rapidly evolving future of computing
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 20 มี.ค. 2023
- Today, we have a special guest joining us on the podcast-Bill Gates! With the rapidly evolving AI landscape, including the release of products like OpenAI’s ChatGPT and the new Bing, it was the perfect time to have Bill join to talk about this unique moment in the history of computing. In this episode, Kevin talks with Bill about the latest in AI research, including the release of GPT-4, how past technology revolutions have led us to where we are today, how AI is evolving his philanthropic work, his love of reading, and so much more!
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1:59 - unveiling of GPT-4.0 outside of OpenAI in August/September 2022
3:35 - Bill recounts a short history of AI
5:43 - Bill’s challenge for OpenAI to get his attention
9:05 - Bill proclaiming GPT-4.0 is a fundamental change despite its shortcomings
9:43 - GPT-4.0’s shortcomings
10:18 - shortcoming 1) sense of context
11:26 - shortcoming 2) math, its greatest weakness
13:20 - Bill’s belief that the shortcomings are not fundamental and will be fixed
14:23 - Kevin and Bill talk about examples where GPT-4.0 excels
18:28 - Bill’s musings on this generation of AI’s impact on society
23:43 - Kevin’s musings on the bar being lowered to communicate with computers
25:08 - Bill’s musings on writing computer programs with natural language
27:27 - AI and the Gates Foundation. AI’s impact on education and health
33:33 - how Xerox PARC influenced Microsoft in 1979
38:34 - moving AI compute from servers to self-contained devices
39:43 - one general AI model or multiple specialized AI models?
40:43 - scaling up the models to use all known corpuses and synthetic data
45:35 - what would a young Bill Gates work on in this day and age?
50:45 - how much does Bill Gates actually read?
Thanks. You're the Guvnor.
You are a legend 🫡
0:19
Thank you boss.
I bet you made this flawless comment using AI in seconds 😂💪🏻
THANK YOU. I’m 76 years old and have never considered myself ‘knowledgeable’ with or about technology. I do a lot of writing and still start my stories on paper and ink. One completed I then use Word etc to ‘refine and perfect’ what I wrote on paper. I know… very Old School’.
That said, last summer when I heard about AI and it’s possible uses, “I was hooked”.
Because of my quest for information, I happened across the interview. My very first time visiting Microsoft Corp. on line.
Thank you you two for lighting the flames of learning with in me. I truly believe this will change the world in ways we presently can’t imagine. Thank you again.
Bill, it’s fun to see you get almost “giddy” over this topic. When I began with Microsoft in 1992, I was in the field trying to convince System/36 customers that one day they would want mice and color monitors for GUI PCs. Back then, OLE was magic and the dream of Clippy was almost science fiction. Except for a few practical visionaries like yourself, few could imagine the impact PCs would have across the planet. In that spirit, it’s great to see current Microsoft leaders ushering in yet another fundamentally transformative technology. Thanks for your past and continued contributions.
Transformative in the way a spaceship landing on the South Lawn with an alien that speaks all our languages emerging.
I had my first computer when I was 13 years old. Broadband internet at 15. Smartphone at 21. Chatgpt at 33. A whole new generation of kids will grow up with all these advances starting from now. For me, all of the mentioned itens were always magic and object of appreciation and wonder. Also, I had to learn a whole set of habilities to work with them -and many more to work without the use of them. For the young people right now, this is all a thing of the past. Everything is truly changed.
I feel like a person transitioning from an age without radio and electricity to an world of mass media and light bulbs. Only this time everything is happening massively faster.
It's happening so fast and I'm not even prepared yet, but I know I must be prepared to handle this new world that is appearing. I'm excited and at the same time really freaked out.
At about ten years old my eldest son was writing code on a Tandy computer and backing up to audio tape cassettes. Where at that age I was only building crystal set radios.
Bill is right. This one is a massive shift. I can't believe how many people in tech continue to point out the shortcomings. The capabilities today are enough and this is only the beginning of real language I/O.
That's just called "cope" from them, thinking that their white collar job sector would never get taken over by automation as well
"Look! Here we have a car, it's extremely energy efficient, it's cheap, its using renewable energy sources, it's safe, it's carbon footprint is minimal and it outperforms every old car!" - "Yeah, but it doesnt fly!".
I think we’re all just a bit scared. Every job is in danger now, some more than others
Just wait for the "reveries" as acknowledged in Westworld. The simple things like being able to tell when someone is thinking or considering something while in active conversation.
i like when you said "language i/o", i will be using this now too
I’ve been using the new Bing chat for a couple of weeks and I want to give props to Microsoft. You’ve not only taken GPT4 (which is already amazing) and released it but you have majorly enhanced it.
no, the changes balance out, they enhanced it by allowing it to browse the internet, but they restrained it by adding additional rules and guidelines.
@@brianj7204 Yeah tbh there is too much restrictions placed that prevents you having a bit more fun with it
oh well i wish, but reality it is gpt4 is not fun like expected, you cant made fun image with, every time the program say fun is not allowed
@@eobardrush2112 bing can even actually search itself so its just what internet connected ChatGPT have to abide to, for now.
I don't think it's as bad as ChatGPT on NSFW content.
When I look at the young Bill Gates and look at him now I get emotional. Time spares no one. It's a pity that Steve Jobs won't live to talk to Bill Gates about AI in 2023. Truly a legend.
Get emotional by looking at your aging parents who brough you into this world
@@enduringwave87 😅😅😅
he will make Himself young again with technology. save your tears
He's evil
@@PatternRecognizer evil in your eyes but angel in my eyes . ok
when one talk about writing codes or AI programming then Bill Gates is the right person to talk to, to get better understanding on the subject.
Kevin Scott is feeling the pressure even now when listening to Bill's suggestions. I think they want to impress Bill about their abilities of progressing AI.
Now they have the the tree trunk of AI "Ready" and looking at ways to expand the AI branches, talking to Bill to get more info on it, is the best start.
I am really really really impressed by Bill Gates knowledge even after leaving MS for so many years and not getting involved in technology stuffs, yet when asked about the future of things he can answer them so naturally - like he is born to know these stuffs.
We're living revolutionary times!
@Rr Mangr or just before the nuclear armageddon
The most that will ever exist
Why? Were the flight logs released?
Yeah. I hope we'll survive it.
Someone probably said the same thing when the wheel was invented.
Really quite incredible how Bill Gates has managed to stay so relevant in all these major technological breakthroughs. Reading a lot is the lesson I took from all this.
Lol
Or just have more money than you know what to do with, and invest in everything new that pops up.
Facts
Correct, @samwelemanuel7976. You don't get smart, after getting rich; in fact, quite the contrary.
Bill Gates is smart and savvy. He sees that some of the criticism that the neural net paradyme that uses statistical learning is not inherently flawed. This is an exciting time and many benefits will follow.
Fascinating discussion, thank you! 🙏🏼
I have been programming applications with LLM's using C#, etc. I honestly have to say OpenAI and the Microsoft Team have done extremely well in this endevour. The GPT large language models are extremely impressive.
Thanks Bill and Kevin…. This 87 year old techie started out inside a Univac II and I certainly am thrilled at the possibilities of this natural language breakthrough. It has been and continues to be a great ride…. JohnG
Kevin - flawless interview. Great energy.
Q. I want to "model" Bill's executive journey from early days to recently. As an observer-admirer since *Basic* days, I feel the need to complete the circle in my mind. Of course I'll look on my own, but thought I'd ask if you have one you would like to recommend.
Freemason bookshelf may be a place to begin
I would have found it useful to hear both participants thoughts, and those in the comments, on reading to learn vs listening to podcasts and watching videos to learn at this point in time? Especially given the latter can be usefully done with the playback speed bumped up therefore allowing you to get through more content in less time. Similarly now with AI being what it is are you learning faster having a very targeted discussion and set of Q&A with it on the subject you want to learn.
Great to see Bill talking about cutting edge technology, where he himself plays a part. After all Bill is a geek, he obviously love too breathe these things.
Does anyone have a link to a copy of the printout he is referencing from PARC with Charles Simonyi?
Ask Chat GPT
This was an excellent conversational interview. Well done!
Children are the future. Like Bill says the education system is lagging behind. Kids use ChatGPT to write essays and teachers use ChatGPT to mark them. What's the motivation for intelligent kids to stay on in education and learn skills which are now obsolete? Has any thought been given to WHAT children need to be learning right now? I guess we just need to teach our kids to aggressively exploit opportunities and take risks. If your kids are not of that mindset, but have innate gifts in analytical thinking, language , art, music, writing, communicating, they will be unemployed. They will not be able to follow in your footsteps when you die. Use of the word 'mindblowing' just shows that the people driving this have not thought it through.
This was such an great and insightful episode! I learned so much from Bill and Kevin about AI and its impact on the world. Thank you for sharing this with us!
Hi Bill - Given your aha moment with GPT-4, isn’t it time to prioritize AI Safety & Alignment Research within the Gates Foundation’s initiatives?
As you’ve masterfully pointed out, the potential of AI to transform our world is immense. If we get it right, the upside for humanity is boundless. Unfortunately, the downside if we get it wrong is also boundless.
In the coming years, with AI we may witness a modern-day Trinity Test, but with the probability of an existential disaster far surpassing that of the Manhattan Project.
You have a history of successfully identifying and addressing the most consequential and neglected cause of our time. In my opinion, you did exactly that 20 years ago in global health, and your continued work there has been nothing short of inspiring.
Hello 👋 thanks for your support in my dream and career I’m happy to have you as a fan 🚀
As a huge fan of Bing Chat, I have to say, that I'm very, very concerned about your AI Safety Protocol. 1st, you rush out a Beta Test (which performed so poorly that it went mainstream), and then Microsoft fired the AI Safety team soon thereafter. It sets an unfortunate precedent on an otherwise historic moment.
9:09 this is a fundamental change
9:39 " ...it's a huge, huge advance."
21:28 next big change
33:34 Bill's expression
It is a gift to watch the conversation between you two. I am deeply grateful :)
What an amazing person! Both are so smart and inspiring individuals!
Older subtractive methods of assessing achievement (finding out what someone doesn’t know from a tightly limited subsection of knowledge) needs to be replaced with a new system that captures what people have learned (an additive inventory of learning achievement from a much broader spectrum of knowledge).
Hello 👋 thanks for your support in my dream and career I’m happy to have you as a fan 🚀
I definitely appreciate this interview and Bill's insight on AI. I wish there was more mentions on the social and security impacts of the technology as those seem to be the hardest problems people at the bleeding edge self-admittedly know very little about (only trumped by how the darn thing actually works). I think the example of calculator's impact on education was a prescient one however like with many things AI, it's growth and impact and speed of deployment makes its advent uniquely different. It doesn't take incredible foresight to predict the opportunities for it to be misused or have its applications have wide-reaching unintended consequences. In very optimistic conversations like this, it's critical to always serve it with the largest amount of salt possible to keep the hard unsolved issues regarding social impact at the forefront.
Agree, may enjoy Walter Issacson, Eric Schmitt discussion on Annapour channel.
Great seeing this.. I remember my shift from DOS to Windows and from WordStar to MS Word.. MS and Mr Gates have impacted our lives in India during the 90 s professionally and in personally too..
Today I look forward for the AI to metamorphosis our health care industry esp in countries like India..
Which paper are you talking about around 38:00, written by Charles? Can you please give full author name and the paper name?
I'm also interested
I support this request! I couldn't find it.
The Future of Computing: A Perspective on Future Changes in Computing and Some Implications for Education
Thank you for sharing this conversation, this was great. I think it's worth highlighting one of the first things Bill said, there will be a pivot from our current information representations schemes where a lot of work classifying and labeling information into ontological structures will be shifted into natural language. That's mind blowing, everyone who has used Bing, Bard, Chat-GPT and others have already seen this first hand. The second mind blowing aspect is the fact that so much information we model with natural language in information work and translate into computing domain is a core capability of these systems. So cool to hear from both of you whee you're at with respect to these innovations and uh... 80 books a year, tennis, pickle ball all while doing this thought leadership stuff is also quite mind blowing haha.
We can use prompt crafting now to deal with some of the issues mentioned
"It was really a powerful and motivating anecdote that you shared." I'm going to have to remember to use that one on my boss. She will love it.
I really really love Bill for how sweet, intelligent and calm he is. And for his fascination towards tech and making this world a better place. Thank you for being alive and for all the projects you are moving!
I18n could be a huge step for the next iteration of NLP systems. when a kid is learning new skills but lacks the ability to express their discoveries in another language, or the same language, they can become frustrated and give up on learning. if there was some way to reword or translate output without changing context the child would gain confidence in sharing.
I like how Bill simplifies and explains a lot of this, this is what he does best!
Kevin’s conversation with Sam Altman is among my favorite podcasts of all time! this seems like a spiritual successor :)
I wonder how generative AI can be used in healthcare instead of replacing doctors with automation if we use it to minimise the human error so that generative AI can build a deep real time knowledge representation and it can increase doctor's productivity and people from remote areas globally can access to better health care facilities with the help of generative AI and also the segment of generative AI and 3d printing seems to be fascinating it seems like AI printing itself❤❤
Given GPT-4 is multi-modal (meaning it can "see" too), visual diagnosis will take several great leaps ahead.
There are really many use case and in some cases the technology is already ready. For example, Microsoft has AI copilot for Teams. Doctors can use this feature to record their interaction with their patients. So all of a sudden, people do not need to struggle with reading doctors handwriting and doctors no longer need to manually record their patient's medical report. But AI can go beyond this function, they can provide suggestion for diagnosis and prescription plus providing a consistent platform for recording medical issues. I can keep going as the possibilities are many.
i say to made easier for doctor so instead to treat manually several dozen patients every day, AI can diagnostic disease for doctor and doctor can check if the AI is right, also AI can check if the treatment working or recommend better treatment if it not working
I think with health care it would only work helping to analyze things and gather information like in star trek because it's the doctors that still need to do the job to treat patients, and they have to see everything that's going on with someone and look at their injury or whatever else, it could tell you the best way to treat something based on what it knows and the data you give it about the patients but because it's limited can still only guide the doctors.
Are Charles Simonyi's predictions available online anywhere?
Excellent talk Kevin and Bill. Seems like back to the 80s for the maestro.
Now tools like Wolfram addon with chatgpt wonder what is next on Bills list of things to tick off. Like the idea of tools add on for each profession to specialise the output to make chatgpt an auto tool to increase company output, thinking Naval archecture with all the fluid dynamic and hull designs testing.
Great interview. Thank you for posting it..
I like CTOs who have 3D printers and lab oscilloscopes in their background, instead of a Lambo or a Matisse.
It’s at least an upgrade to an outdated search engine.
It feels like we’ve been dyslexic in programming and now you get an answer much closer to what you are looking for and not having to sif through information overload
Simply awesome discussion!
Kevin, I loved the authenticity of this conversation, you’re great. Thanks!
Já estou aprendendo C#, Microsoft me aguarde 😉
We are grateful to Bill for bringing Internet to homes with Windows in the early days. Of course I'm old enough to remember using DOS and coding in Basic.
Hello 👋 thanks for your support in my dream and career I’m happy to have you as a fan 🚀
Would it be possible to see that note from Charles Simonyi ? Is there a link that someone could share? It would be really appreciated.
Hello 👋 thanks for your support in my dream and career I’m happy to have you as a fan 🚀
Thank you so much for producing this amazing technology
I feel like bill is likely the Nicola Tesla or Benjamin Franklin of our generation and doesn’t get enough credit. He’s brilliant
Hello 👋 thanks for your support in my dream and career I’m happy to have you as a fan 🚀
Rumours are that next versions will include an extra level of self-observation and self-analysis, which will provide real-time feedback to the system itself about what and how it is doing while generating an answer. And it sounds very close to the definition of self-awareness.
wow this flew by, great stuff!
When Bill speaks on tech I want to listen.
I really must say that I enjoyed this whole session! It's been real fun and seeing things from Bill's perspective.
Everything is opinion
Thank you for sharing this moment with Gates 🤝
It's great that Bill Gates could now set aside his ego and appreciate what other companies have done thru out the tech journey along with his own contribution to all these development milestones. Always insightful and wise thoughts.
37:56 what paper or book from what Charles is he referencing? Wanna read it
Reading 80 books a year is an amazing feat of achievement. I am lucky if I read my one book a month. Would have liked to increase that to two-books a month
reading 1 book well can sometimes be better
i also read like one book a month on average but that's enough for me thanks
Yep he can afford to read an insane amount of books
Yeah that's at least 60 pages per day!
I can't even count the number of science and technology TH-cam videos I now watch each week.
Wow. Just came for tidbits. Ended up watching and now rewatching the whole interview.
It's much easier to be relaxed about the impacts of AI when you're already incredibly rich and don't need to worry about it disrupting your career and family life.
Does anyone know what math people should brush up on that Bill alludes to at around 45:47
- matrix notation (since the literature and the programs use matrices to describe the computations for the sake of clarity
- Linear algebra ( optimization, approximation)
- statistics
- calculus.( chain rule, gradient descent )
In 40 prechecking post-checking, does that mean it will come with a conclusion of summing data?
Would someone provide a link to the famous piece of paper that Charles wrote about technological cycles at about the 38” mark?
Super high quality interview - Gates seems to be well informed. Thanks!
Great discussion. One thing that caught my eye was your Prusa. What do you love to print?
the midst of deadlines urgencies. The capacity of the human mind in knowledge integration is truly phenomenal too.
Every minute is truly profound and excellent to the max. Please don't miss the message that starts around 45 minutes, and please don't simply fast forward to this point. Cheers.
It is really nice this talk about things AI can help with as immature it is. I meet many high-school math students that are lost and neglected by the teachers. It would be very useful with a patient AI to help, but we do not have a detailed image yet of how to do this in general in the future. And visiting your doctor that has 10 minute to find out the next thing to do but no time to explain. Here is help needed.
How does our brain process reasoning? I am thinking perhaps the way LLM works is actually very similar to the way our brain works.
No way, our thoughts are always pervaded by our emotions, 😊
@@lidvm Emotions is triggered by our memories, external stimuli and internal chemistry. Emotions and reasoning are 2 different process. As of now, i don't see emotions programmed into models. But for human, emotions have a stronger influence on behaviour than reasoning.
What an incredible conversation with Bill Gates! It's always a treat to hear from someone who has not only witnessed, but also actively shaped the evolution of technology over the years. Bill's enthusiasm for AI advancements like ChatGPT and GPT-4 is infectious, and it's exciting to think about how these innovations will shape our future. His blend of technical expertise, curiosity, and commitment to philanthropy continues to make a difference in the world. It's a privilege to learn from someone who has been at the forefront of so many groundbreaking moments in computing history. Thank you, Bill, for sharing your thoughts and guiding us through yet another transformative era!
awesome stuff. Kevin, get a lint brush handy and run it over the shirt before these type of events (a tip that helped me)
I like Gates analysis, he gets too the point. The question if a statical model is valid for solving problems ask the guys doing quantum computing. Humans often miss interpret English so why would we expect an AI model to understand perfectly every random sentence. Just like communicating with people you have to iterate over ideas through conversation. Ive always said AI growth will be exponential while hardware vendors adapt micro architecture to support the type of problems these networks need to solve. The main flaw i see in the current transformer models is learning, these models need to adaptively learn the current context either through embeddings or injected weights like LORA. Once this occurs long term memory will be available to these models along with projects like Jarvis, LangChain, AI Agent to provide automation then true AGI will be a thing.
You sure we’ve not reached AGI the same week a 150 page report comes out and says we have essentially reached AGI. It also suggest we don’t actually understand how the model works as its functioning beyond our understanding. Anyone that interacted with the og “Sydney” version of Bing realized the model was far more capable then anticipated.
Great question to Mr Gates at 19:15, how to see this AI moment in terms of epoch shifts and how we can evolve with it.
He didn't lose his enthusiasm on new innovations even at this age....only such people can spread hope for this world
The python program any idea how that’ll work 16:08
Instead of expecting AI to give us the right answers, maybe we should be asking it to write code to come up with the right answer. It's easier to verify this way and easier to correct and improve. There's little use in an answer we don't understand where it came from anyway.
gpt has has revolutionized my life thanks to bill commercializing it, bill is fast becoming my new hero
I have a question. I think it is so amazing and wonderful that AI can now write music for us so that we don't have to go through the long and difficult process of learning to play the guitar. My question is how long will it be before it can listen to it for us as well? It would be super if I could hang out on my back porch and whittle a duck instead of having to waste time listening to my mp3 player.
Fantastic Interview!!
❤❤❤love this conversation
And not a single word about what social consequences these technologies will bring, leaving many without work. Progress is inevitable, but this issue was not even discussed. This speaks to their nature of morality.
Not really, they are techies, they like to speak about the technology they work with. I know, because I am one too.
Thank you for calling out AGI and it’s meaning
He promised to talk about how AI is dealing with global warming. Did I miss that? That seems crucial AI engagment.
Bring back 'Clippy the paperclip'. *This* time it will be great !
I'd like to pass a comment on Bill Gate's comment, where he said the the computer (and the people behind it) cannot claim credit for improveing grades obtained by students- for example it didn't improve average Math grades over time. I tend to have a different opinion, as although I cannot comment on whether grades improved over time, I think it would have to be investigated whether 1) the amount of knowledge absorbed in fields of study, and 2) whether more fields of study have become more and more accessible. Therefore the computer and internet has indeed contributing to the advance of knowledge in a very significant way, even if there's still much to improve.
How quickly all this changes, just days later a wide set of APIs has been announced for GPT-4, such as with WolframAlpha, Expedia, etc.
Someone should put up a Web site that tracks:
1. A timeline of features added and new version releases of all the major AI systems.
2. Scoring on various tests and the progression toward sentience (as covered well by AI Explained: th-cam.com/video/Mqg3aTGNxZ0/w-d-xo.html)
And, perhaps most of all, we should have a Singularity Clock, much like the Doomsday Clock to track our progress toward the inevitable Singularity. #SingularityClock
One Question : How long will it last until AI re-reads the whole code used in Windows 11 and optimize it by kicking out modules still legacy there but no more usefull and re-writing and re-assambling code and liberarys not optimal atm , testing it for stability and testing it for security vunerabilitys ?
Been there done that a hundred, thousand times over. But yeah -
one year ago Bill Gates has around 2-3 % share of Microsoft out of his 100% portfolio, this year he has more than 20% share of Microsoft out of his 100% portfolio. I think AI has great potential so he has increased his portfolio of Microsoft share. So learn from him, buy shares of Microsoft.
Maybe we can change the way we select things so we select based on advantages and not problems?
You are one of the best hosts that I have ever seen. I enjoyed every moment, thank you.
For gods sake can we get AI to fix autocorrect?? How are we still struggling with this?
I agree totally on the necessity to change education because we have greater variety in students … probably more attention deficit disorders but shorts are better to educate whether one is attention deficit or not.
Thank you. It really works
When I look around me and see the technology we all benefit from today I bow down to Bill his vision has provided us all with what we have right now…I am so looking forward to the day we have…”Beam Me Up Scotty”:
Humans are not necessarily conscious of the knowledge they internalize through their senses but may show if asked to write on a subject that may hold the key to how it is saved in their memory system.
That is exactly what key boards changes are going to be about relating to languages which I have in mind. I may be duuuhhhhh in programming language but not in creative ideas for that sector
You're awsome 🎉
Hello 👋 thanks for your support in my dream and career I’m happy to have you as a fan 🚀
Great interview!
Great discussion. By the way, Bill seemed to have a bit of a gas or hiccup problem throughout. I hope he's OK.