Despite WTI just crashing today, the oil stocks are holding up which is a good sign to me. However, we have had 8 straight up days in the S&P, assuming it closes green today. I think that makes for a dangerous setup into Jackson Hole. I don't want to be selling but I may have to take some weight off, I'm not really sure what to do. One day at a time as usual! Haha I like how you say "busy". You say it "beezy" whereas I say it "bizzy" haha. I agree with you, why should there be more than a 25 bp cut in a soft landing? I don't see that either.
Yes the possibility of ceasefire between Israel and Hamas hit hard but that’s also why I think the industry wants that badly hurt. It’s a short term move. For the stocks, I don’t know. If the data backs the soft landing scenario the stocks will be supported… we could see a further sector rotation however - but you are covered with oil stocks :)
@@ipekozkardeskaya1383 ohhhh so that's why oil sold off, a potential peaceful resolution. Well that's good for the world and I agree, once that is priced in then we can continue.
5:50 is the key part of the video for me. What will happen to SnP500 if the rates go down by only 0.25% is a bit unknown to me. Do you think that a tough correction is possible in the market by the 19/20th of the September? I dont expect a cut by 0.50 from the fed at all.
I believe that a 25bp cut is a bullish scenario for the stock markets. The 50bp cut scenario is associated with undesired financial / economic stress and should not support a positive move. So I think that a 25bp could support the rally as it will mean that the Fed starts cutting rates while the economy is in a relatively good shape. I hope this answers your question !
@@ipekozkardeskaya1383 yes, It surely answers my question, thank you very much. I may be too focused on the scenario for "buy the news and sell the fact". Thank you dear Ipek.
I really missed your videos during your holidays.
Pls continue with your compact and competent market wrapups
Thank you!😊 of course, we are back to the normal rythme !
Hello Ipek nice to see you again and thanks for the excellent report.
Hey Kostas, thank you 🙏🏻🙏🏻 nice to hear from you !
Hi Ipek and thank you, as usual top analysis
Thank you 🙏🏻🙏🏻
Thanks Ipek, seems to be a calm week, Rgds
Calm before the storm maybe ?!
Despite WTI just crashing today, the oil stocks are holding up which is a good sign to me. However, we have had 8 straight up days in the S&P, assuming it closes green today. I think that makes for a dangerous setup into Jackson Hole. I don't want to be selling but I may have to take some weight off, I'm not really sure what to do. One day at a time as usual! Haha I like how you say "busy". You say it "beezy" whereas I say it "bizzy" haha. I agree with you, why should there be more than a 25 bp cut in a soft landing? I don't see that either.
Yes the possibility of ceasefire between Israel and Hamas hit hard but that’s also why I think the industry wants that badly hurt. It’s a short term move. For the stocks, I don’t know. If the data backs the soft landing scenario the stocks will be supported… we could see a further sector rotation however - but you are covered with oil stocks :)
@@ipekozkardeskaya1383 ohhhh so that's why oil sold off, a potential peaceful resolution. Well that's good for the world and I agree, once that is priced in then we can continue.
It’s Ipek Monday again 😊
🎉🎉
5:50 is the key part of the video for me. What will happen to SnP500 if the rates go down by only 0.25% is a bit unknown to me. Do you think that a tough correction is possible in the market by the 19/20th of the September? I dont expect a cut by 0.50 from the fed at all.
I believe that a 25bp cut is a bullish scenario for the stock markets. The 50bp cut scenario is associated with undesired financial / economic stress and should not support a positive move. So I think that a 25bp could support the rally as it will mean that the Fed starts cutting rates while the economy is in a relatively good shape. I hope this answers your question !
@@ipekozkardeskaya1383 yes, It surely answers my question, thank you very much. I may be too focused on the scenario for "buy the news and sell the fact". Thank you dear Ipek.