I watched at least 3 other videos & all 3 of these liked Fierceness to Win ! Derbyologist , Speed King , Mystery Handicapper. I'm going Fierceness cause he got bigger & pry stronger since the Kentucky Derby, he's well rested & he won at Saratoga before & only facing 5 horses & i think Speed favors closers in a 1 & 1/8 mile race ! We'll see ! 👊
@@italianwaterice9594 he's due though ! 3 great races & 3 pretty bad ones. Although he did have a 3rd place finish too. I like Fierceness here but i'm NO Expert !
@@willmorrisusa Pletcher has won the Jim Dandy seven times dating back to 2000. His last win was Forte in 2023. Johnny V does have four wins (last win was 2010). Their 2024 entrant Fierceness is fast enough to win if he has his mind on running.
@@JarrodHorak right- he's got the talent & abilities. I think sometimes the Kentucky Derby can spook a lot of horses cause of the crowd & 20 horses running. I'm just higher on Fierceness cause he's well rested , it's only 1 1/8 th mile ( proven distance for Fierceness ) & he got bigger since Derby & pry stronger ! Maybe Pletcher been working on him getting out the starting gates more efficiently too ! Jarrod- could Fierceness been a little over raced , leading up to the Derby ? Maybe holding him off till the Preakness woulda been better ?
finally, I will back Sierra Leone here...not too many bodies in front of him. He will go wide again down the stretch and he will lug in again. This time, the odds of colliding into other horses are less. He will have a lot of speed to run at and he should have his ideal trip.
I'll be very disappointed in Sierra Leone can't win this. It's a small field so he shouldn't find trouble here. Plenty of speed up front and Sierra always closes strong even when the pace is slow. It's not a G1, but I'm sure Brown is quite ready to get this horse back in the win column!
Sierra Leone has every advantage in the paper race. He is the lone closer in a race with at least four early runners. He is the most reliable horse in the race by far and should win if everything goes as expected.
@@JarrodHorak As for the post time odds, I don't envision Fierceness being 9/5. I'm guessing 6/5 on him and 1/1 or 4/5 on Sierra. In any case, I think the ML odds are going to hold up pretty well on Sierra Leone.
@@paulv7554 You are probably right. Fierceness will take more money than he should. He is unreliable and I do not know what kind of trip he will get from the outside post. Sierra Leone will run his usual closing race and I still think there is more in the tank. He might have a big second half if he matures a bit more.
@@JarrodHorak Well that was disappointing. I'm starting to get a Zandon vibe at this point, as far as racking up wins is concerned. Really didn't have much excuse. Fierceness just beat him.
@@paulv7554 I am not getting that vibe. Closers need everything to go right. The pace was expected to be fast and it was a controlled tempo. As soon as I saw Fierceness sitting a dream trip in 2nd behind a completely overmatched maiden winner and the fractions were not strong, I knew the race was over. Sierra Leone ran a quality closing race but there was no way he was catching multiple G1 winner Fierceness with those fractions and that perfect winning trip. Good to see that Sierra Leone is maturing with every race. Hopefully he is putting his bad habits behind him. The Travers is wide open and pace and trips will mean everything.
It was the race shape that did him in more than anything, along with Fierecness working out a perfect trip tracking a hopeless longshot. Sierra Leone ran a quality race and seems to be getting more professional as the year progresses. He remains a strong contender for the Travers next month.
@@JarrodHorak yes i agree... i think his momentun got stopped mid stretch..... now ... Firceness,, Mystic Dan ,, and Dornoch are all gonna be overbet and tosses in Travers lol
@@italianwaterice9594 It ended up being a useful Travers prep for Sierra Leone. It looked like the pace would be fast in the Jim Dandy but it did not play out that way. Mystik Dan is out of Travers, but Dornoch is going, along with Thorpedo Anna,Honor Marie, the 1-2 Curlin Stakes finishers, and possibly Mindframe, Fierceness, Seize the Grey, and Parenting and/or Muth for Baffert. Up to 11 possible for Travers at this time.
I watched at least 3 other videos & all 3 of these liked Fierceness to Win ! Derbyologist , Speed King , Mystery Handicapper. I'm going Fierceness cause he got bigger & pry stronger since the Kentucky Derby, he's well rested & he won at Saratoga before & only facing 5 horses & i think Speed favors closers in a 1 & 1/8 mile race ! We'll see ! 👊
Fierceness is talented but inconsistent. If the good version of Fierceness shows up, he is capable of winning, but I do not trust him.
I know youre not comparing Horak to those guys.. lol..... its not even close.. those guys are all chalk and no insight lol
Fierceness inconsistency isnt worth the short prices
@@italianwaterice9594 not comparing ! Just sharing ! I'm still learning too ! We'll see !
@@italianwaterice9594 he's due though ! 3 great races & 3 pretty bad ones. Although he did have a 3rd place finish too. I like Fierceness here but i'm NO Expert !
Good analysis Jarrod. This race on paper really sets up for SL. I will single SL in my $1Late P4.
The Jim Dandy does seem to set up perfectly for Sierra Leone. Hopefully he shows up and runs a big race. Good luck!
Horak is winning over 50pct since april.. on fire
This is a game of streaks and things are going well currently. Confidence is high and I hope to keep it going right through the summer.
@@JarrodHorak youre going to need a PR team soon ! thats a pr statement.. we may see you on NBC next to Randy Moss and Jerry Bailey soon !
@@italianwaterice9594 That would be great. I was a big Bailey fan.
Thank you sir! 👊🏼
I love how Dornoch fought down the stretch in the Haskell ! That was Awesome !
Dornoch tries hard and will make you pay if you make a mistake.
@@JarrodHorak yeah- he's tough ! 👍
@@JarrodHorak I think Pletcher won the Jim Dandy 7 times & Fierceness' Jockey won it 4 times. Could be a good sign ? ! 😶
@@willmorrisusa Pletcher has won the Jim Dandy seven times dating back to 2000. His last win was Forte in 2023. Johnny V does have four wins (last win was 2010). Their 2024 entrant Fierceness is fast enough to win if he has his mind on running.
@@JarrodHorak right- he's got the talent & abilities. I think sometimes the Kentucky Derby can spook a lot of horses cause of the crowd & 20 horses running. I'm just higher on Fierceness cause he's well rested , it's only 1 1/8 th mile ( proven distance for Fierceness ) & he got bigger since Derby & pry stronger ! Maybe Pletcher been working on him getting out the starting gates more efficiently too ! Jarrod- could Fierceness been a little over raced , leading up to the Derby ? Maybe holding him off till the Preakness woulda been better ?
finally, I will back Sierra Leone here...not too many bodies in front of him. He will go wide again down the stretch and he will lug in again. This time, the odds of colliding into other horses are less. He will have a lot of speed to run at and he should have his ideal trip.
The race flow should be in Sierra Leone's favor, and as you said, a short field should help his cause if he lugs in again.
I'll be very disappointed in Sierra Leone can't win this. It's a small field so he shouldn't find trouble here. Plenty of speed up front and Sierra always closes strong even when the pace is slow. It's not a G1, but I'm sure Brown is quite ready to get this horse back in the win column!
Sierra Leone has every advantage in the paper race. He is the lone closer in a race with at least four early runners. He is the most reliable horse in the race by far and should win if everything goes as expected.
@@JarrodHorak As for the post time odds, I don't envision Fierceness being 9/5. I'm guessing 6/5 on him and 1/1 or 4/5 on Sierra. In any case, I think the ML odds are going to hold up pretty well on Sierra Leone.
@@paulv7554 You are probably right. Fierceness will take more money than he should. He is unreliable and I do not know what kind of trip he will get from the outside post. Sierra Leone will run his usual closing race and I still think there is more in the tank. He might have a big second half if he matures a bit more.
@@JarrodHorak Well that was disappointing. I'm starting to get a Zandon vibe at this point, as far as racking up wins is concerned. Really didn't have much excuse. Fierceness just beat him.
@@paulv7554 I am not getting that vibe. Closers need everything to go right. The pace was expected to be fast and it was a controlled tempo. As soon as I saw Fierceness sitting a dream trip in 2nd behind a completely overmatched maiden winner and the fractions were not strong, I knew the race was over. Sierra Leone ran a quality closing race but there was no way he was catching multiple G1 winner Fierceness with those fractions and that perfect winning trip. Good to see that Sierra Leone is maturing with every race. Hopefully he is putting his bad habits behind him. The Travers is wide open and pace and trips will mean everything.
Batten Down wiped out Sierra Leone wtf,, cost him the race
It was the race shape that did him in more than anything, along with Fierecness working out a perfect trip tracking a hopeless longshot. Sierra Leone ran a quality race and seems to be getting more professional as the year progresses. He remains a strong contender for the Travers next month.
@@JarrodHorak yes i agree... i think his momentun got stopped mid stretch..... now ... Firceness,, Mystic Dan ,, and Dornoch are all gonna be overbet and tosses in Travers lol
@@italianwaterice9594 It ended up being a useful Travers prep for Sierra Leone. It looked like the pace would be fast in the Jim Dandy but it did not play out that way. Mystik Dan is out of Travers, but Dornoch is going, along with Thorpedo Anna,Honor Marie, the 1-2 Curlin Stakes finishers, and possibly Mindframe, Fierceness, Seize the Grey, and Parenting and/or Muth for Baffert. Up to 11 possible for Travers at this time.
@@JarrodHorakDr Venkman won.. thats one of your go to horses
@@italianwaterice9594 Yeah, it was nice to see him stretch out and handle two turns. They have plenty of options for him.