#1 Rule for Spending Emeralds in Hero Wars
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 8 ก.พ. 2025
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They are targeting gambling addiction
100% and it's not even sort of hidden
While correct that the chance is 0.05432% on each subsequent opening, there is a math formula, that gives the cumulative chance of getting an item. Lets say the drop chance is 1%, thus a 99% probability of it NOT dropping. The formula goes as follows :
(1 - (1-P)^T) = drop probability after T tries and a probability of dropping of P. So 1-P = 99%, lets say you try 100 times, you get (1 - (1-0.01)^100) = 63.4%.
So, lets do the math for the 0.05432% drop chance. As the 0.05432% is a drop in 1861 times. We will use that as the first calculation attempt : (1 - (1-0.0005432)^1861) = 63.6% drop chance, and 36.4% of not dropping.
Let us then say that you use 50 emeralds on each manhole cover to get one more try (and you have 3 manhole covers per day, you will then have 2x 1861 = 3722 tries in 1861/3 days = 620 days.
(1 - (1-0.0005432)^3722 = 86.7% chance of dropping, and 13.3% chance of not dropping in those 3722 tries.
As there is no bad luck protection built into this, as far as we know, so, spending 50x1861 = 93.050 only gives a 86.7% chance of getting it, and 13.3% of not, and not getting any more drops. So, this should tell you, that using them on summoning spheres is much better in the long run.
Me like Maths! Ugg.
Your math is correct if you treat totem drops as a binary event, but it isn't. You're not considering the possibility that you could get more than one fragment in any given set of drops (greater than 1, of course). The expected value of 1,861 manhole drops is 1 fragment, no more, no less.
OK real talk: if we treat all the rewards other than the totem frag as essentially equal (they're not, but they're all pretty small so none of them are game-changing, even in large quantities), here's how it adds up:
.05432% chance is ~ 1 in 1,841
That means that, if you ONLY re-roll once for 50 emeralds at each manhole, you would expect to roll ~1,841 times, at a cost of ~92,050 emeralds, to get each totem fragment.
No, there's no BLP and yes, you might spend a million emeralds that way without getting a fragment, but that's the expected value.
This is significantly better than spending emeralds on big money blue balls, which cost ~45 emeralds each on a normal day. Those have an expected value of 1 in ~5300, or an expected value of ~238,000 emeralds spent (though you can rest assured that you will never spend more than ~280,000 to get one thanks to the BLP).
The value of the other 5,299 (expected) BMBB might be high enough to offset the delta - that will depend on your personal game state and how much you need titan artifact fragments. But I know there are a lot of players right now that need titanpo and essence of elements a lot more than titan artifact fragments thanks to the latest game changes.
TL:DR - if you are a player who wants to spend emeralds to gain totem fragments, and you don't really have a home for titan artifact fragments right now, you're about 3x better off re-rolling the manhole rewards for 50 emeralds than you are opening BMBB. Even if you decide to re-roll up to 100 emeralds, you're expected emerald spend per fragment is still about 50% less with manhole rewards than BMBB.
I'm not gonna do it, b/c I have my main totem at abstar already and I simply don't have the mental fortitude to spend tens of thousands of emeralds on something that doesn't have any guaranteed returns, but mathematically that's the cheapest way to chase totems.
The rule of big numbers states the more times to do something the more likely the count will fit the odds. Regression to the mean is similar rule.
Thank You!
Thank You for that important Advice Charly :-)
"Unlock an Ascension Glyph in the Ascension Spire 30 times - 1,200 Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles Coins."
There will also be an Ascension to Asgard to Asgard event sometime in December, quite possibly during the 20-day TMNT event. If so, it will be a good time to double dip.
It seems like this might be better odds than the blue artifact spheres. If you spend 3 * 50 emeralds per day you nearly double your chances of getting a totem in a given year, and 54k emeralds for a totem is still less than you would have to spend on the blue balls.
Thx Charlie
You can cash in all the extra Titan soul stones and cash them in for Titan Potions to get your titans to level 130.
Good point ! thanks. For fairly new players, would it be the best place to spend emeralds in Rarity fair to upgrade hero's ?
I'm about 4 months in at this point, I only do rarity fair if I'm down to one or two items left and I don't want to take the time and energy to get it, I never do a complete level up. Bonus if also doing a spend emeralds task.
Use the Emeralds to fullfill events, this way you get the most out of it. Rarity fair looks like a fair value but you get no other events done then spending emeralds. Also most events offer items to buy at a decent value. I usually buy a bulk of basic purple/orange items so i only need to farm the receipes of the combined items. I would only recommend raity fair to players that are hardcore pay to win investing 1000 $+ each month, and even then only up to a point where you are not that far behind in artifacts/ascension/glyphs. Maxed item heroes without investments into the other aspects of hero development are not that useful.
Hi, If I don't use the Explorer Moves that we used in Mysterious Island on these maps, will I be able to use them on other maps that will be opened next month, or will they be cancelled?
they carry over! save them!
@@HeroWarsCentral So I can save them and use them in the next game, they won't disappear
@@Samim_RSK Yes they will stay until you use them.
Tell me if I'm crazy. I had 360k in gems. I wanted to clear all the autumn shop tasks which required spending 200k gems. I bought aidan's skin and then used the rest of hero chests. Level 78 with only cleaver at max stars. I was able to get a skin certificate, a skin for x'esha, a skin for corvus and 3 other skins for heroes I don't use. Because of the autumn bonuses, I was able to get kayla, asta, x'esha and aidan all at max stars. Tons of other upgraded stars. I actually got fafnir and got him to 3 stars. I still have 360k worth of points to use in the autumn shop. 1) was this a good use for gems? 2) what should I focus on in the shop.
Question? Why no Titan Potions in the sewer rewards. Hummm. I wonder why... Definitely need them now to level up Titans.
Titan EXP potions have been a dungeon reward for 8 years.
That's a fair question but you CAN get titan summoning spheres, which are essentially titan potions (unless you need gold really bad, then they're essentially gold). So it will help you level up your titans to lvl 130 slightly faster.
Will this also work the same way on mobile for getting extra items sans the lesser absolute spirit summoning sphere?
Mobile is a completely different game, and does not have this bonus ability
@@HeroWarsCentral Is there any special significance to the turtles on mobile? Or just like Lara Croft?
Do you guys know Squirtle the Turtle? He is a loveable little critter. Would probably be instant friends with TMNTs.
Squirtle sounds like a porn star's name
Thanks for the forecast! A bit off-topic, but I wanted to ask: My OKX wallet holds some USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). How should I go about transferring them to Binance?
You just have to walk it down to the nearest Binance office and make your deposit in person
Theoretically, 1 second draw (50 emeralds) per day wouldn't be such a big deal, even for a F2P player like me.
Just because it's cheap, doesn't mean you should buy!
It may replace a soul stone chest with titan skin stones (arguably a better reward) but almost 65% of the time it won't.
Agreed, I mean it will raise your chance to get a totem at least a little, but after that you should hold yourself or u gonna be broke on emeralds
@@MatinMando That's true, I wouldn't even afford more, so I don't even plan to do so. 😂
@matinmando it does not raise your chance to get a totem any at all. If you open 1 its .05%, if you open 10000000000 its .05%.
@@HeroWarsCentral What he maybe thought is, that if you buy these refreshes you get more tries and so more chances to get this totem fragment than if you would only use these free tries. The drop rate stays the same, but would be cool if it would increase too.
How to get all the needed items to get Red Rank without P2W?
does anybody have a chart that shows the emerald cost per 20 skill points ?
i think the first 2 purchases are 10 emeralds each, and the next 2 purchases are 20 emeralds each.
that's 60 emeralds for 80 skill points.
i am wondering what it would cost to have the free 20, and buy another 300 [15 purchases at the same time]
Is that the PC version? I've only played this game on my phone. It looks like he has more mini games.
Yet this doesn't have anything to do on mobile version. I've been playing for a while and everytime I see something new it doesn't happen on mobile. 🙄
its not really free imo cause we do need to spend sth to upgrade turtle to red, and the reward is not as good as lara
we need some whale 🐳 to click the button 2000 times for science xD
I felt gross clicking it a few times just for the video!
@@HeroWarsCentral 🤣
As in my other comment, you can calculate the chance of it dropping cumulatively … but pressing the button 2000 times in a row, i think will be extremely expensive as the cost rises exponentially with each click … (1 - (1-0.0005432)^2000) = 0.662 = 66.2% so, noone in their right mind - even whales that have more money than sense would or should the emeralds in that way.
@@Cyberstormxiii Is there a list somewhere of how much the emerald cost increases each time? It only goes up 50 at a time in the video.
SO MUCH hype and it's going to suck
7
Sorry, but this is really a bit too simplified and not backed by any facts.
Generally ofc, the value of these sewer rewards comes down to someone personal situation and his preferences.
But if you use some common, objective values, you end up with an Expected Value for the sewer reward of around 150 Emerald Value. This comes mostly from the Totem Sphere that can be valued at 200k emeralds: this is what you get for trading it when you have all totems maxed. And its even less than the Totem Sphere BLP. This is 0.05%*200.000 = 100 Expected Emerald Value alone. Rest of the rewards add up to around 150.
So now lets assume you get the 100 Titan Skins for free. They have an Emerald Value of 100/3.75 = 26.7. I.e. a lot less than the Expected Value of 150.
But now you can use 50 Emeralds for a new chance of 150 Expected Value. Even though you lose the 26.7 from the Titan Skins that you give up, this is mathematically beneficial, because you use 50+26.7=76.7 for a new Expected Value of 150 -> 73.3 added value expected.
In the end you have to look at each of the rewards individually. Most of them make a 50 emerald reroll statistically "right". If you get the Skins, even 100 emeralds would be fine to reroll. The only thing (besides the Totem ofc) i wouldnt reroll is the Titan Summon sphere (it has 140 EV). Although, as said before, it still always comes down to what you need ...
I already have turtle fatigue.. Won't be participating.
0.05% ive been playing herowars for 3 years now i should have expected this stingy behavior but still surprised me, their damage is shit and i dont want a light or dark totem worst hero release in a while and it was a collab