@@ajbahlam lol thats true I am one of them.. one of my passengers who was a doctor brought it up, and when it comes to stocks they probably know less than uber drivers who come from all sorts of backgrounds
The current NVIDIA valuation of $130+ basically mplies a 40% yearly market growth over the next decade with no delays or hiccups at any part of the supply chain and zero competition to reduce the profit margins. Good luck with all that.
That is the thing,. Nvidia has beaten the expectations so far, but once they can't catch up with the expectations for once it will probably be a bloodbath
Thank you Sven for keeping your feet on the ground and staying realistic. A lot of people get carried away with the hypes, the promises, the fear of missing out. The opposite happens as well. That's where value investing opportunities arise. There is no such thing as effective market theory. I'm glad you are sticking with the facts.
Funniest thing about these people saying that Warren Buffet does not understand bitcoin do not realize that Buffet does not like Gold either. People need to listen
The geezer who sold tsmc but keeps 40% Apple because he thinks tsmc is in a dangerous position but somehow missed the fact that Apple is heavily dependent on tsmc. Sure keep listening to grandpa and his pre ww2 earning stories.
Buffet? The guy who bought Paramount high and sold it low? The guy who trimmed his Apple position before it went up 10%? He's told old to understand modern days. He has some good principles here and there, but he should no longer be followed like and investment god.
@@eco-enjoyerare you seriously criticizing Warren Buffett for his investment decisions? That’s the most delusional thing I can think of on an investment channel. He’s literally the most successful investor alive today. He has had so many big long term hits. It makes zero sense to point to his misses other than to say no investor is perfect - not even the best alive.
For every 20 attacks, there is one person that will get it + be saved from disaster. In April 2021, that person was me. And I will be forever grateful. I watched your consistent teachings from July 2020. I played in the fire too long, but eventually, the message got through 😎🙏 Just in the nick of time.
Good analysis Sven. AI and ML have been utilized by all tech companies the last 20 years. The new thing is the emergence of generative AI, or at least public perception of it with chatgpt. The profitability of the Tech is still in question as the only companies making money now are the upstream companies like Dell and Nvidia. Based on the comments here by retail that seems to know everthing about "AI" but truly have no clue on the tec, yet keeps defending the profitability, I believe the mania is near the end.
You seem to not understand anything about ai. The concept exists since the 1940s not just 20 years ago. The hardware wasn't nearly powerful enough until recently, that's why we didn't make progress. Also we all heard it before in the 70s how ai was going nowhere and look where it is now.
I think the bubble could be going for some time still. As for A.I. - it's really not that, just bots, imo. They're just selling it with sexy terminology.
@@Torbintime - But how much incremental revenue is the AI training compute producing? Not more than $10s of B, while the caoex has been $100s of B. At some point the hyper-scalers are going to say, ok, this much data centre build out is sufficient, lets reduce capex. The good news is that the order books look good for the next few quarters, not just for nvidia but also for say its HBM memory partner micron.
Bill Gates said in an interview with Michigan Public on June 14: Absolutely. This is a very, very competitive field. I mean, Google is doing great work. Meta. Amazon. And it's not like there's a limited amount of money for new startups in this area. I mean, Elon Musk just raised $6 billion. It's kind of like the internet was in the year 2000. The barriers to entry are very, very low, which means we're moving quickly.
What is the impact of a low barrier entry? does it threaten long term stability in earnings in NVDA? even if it does, can’t some players in AI still be winners?
@@joeymachado3122I would translate "low barriers to entry" into Warren Buffet's dictionary as "no moat". Although in that conversation it was meant for SW developers, it's a bit different for processors, however it's only a matter of time before the competition comes up with a similarly good or cheaper solution. Plus this sector is cyclical. Sooner or later the supply will saturate and drop, the centres will be built, the customer got enough processors and won't need new ones for a while, etc.
Even near the 2022 bottom the valuation was absurd. Nvidia's revenue for FY23 (ending January 2023) was 27b, flat compared with FY22. Guidance for FY24-q1 was 6.5b, so more flatness. The average profit margin over the previous years was 28%. In early 2023, the shares were trading around $150: normalizing by 28% margin on 27b revenue results in a 50x multiple, from a business that at the time was guiding for no near-term growth...
Every time someone tries to put a value on NVIDIA they keep getting it wrong and raise it...again and again. How much are you willing to pay for 28% growth over the next 10 years? If that does happen, which is not unreasonable...the current stock prices pre-split would double. Cha Ching....
You can miss 99/100 100x gaining companies, and still do very well. You just need to catch one of them at the right time to do better than most people.
Sven, I love your pragmatic and objective views. It is really important to have the ability to be detached emotionally and act rationally. Thank you for the videos! And Happy Sunday! :)
Should i hold a stock which i think will be a multibagger but currently overvalued? Its hard to hold stocks long term with the value approach? Youll more turn into a swing trader selling again when value is too high?
Good video Sven! I had stopped watching your viedo for some time... But you are back with your investing style! I also think you progressed even further and are not swinging for the fences that much anymore. Really happy to see that! Keep those videos coming!
Hi Sven, Could you do an analysis on BTI please? It’s a no growth industry but the company has grown its eps and achieved the highest revenue recently. Thanks
You are right on this call, Sven. Semiconductors are a capital-intensive cyclical business, and Nvidia is no exception. Intel is investing in GPUs development and making slow progress, it will take time, but competition will come, as always. This is not a "winner takes all" sector! When everybody is bullish, and the expectations are the highest, the risks are the greatest, and the ticket is not worth the price.
You have no clue; Nvidia is so far ahead. Semiconductors and the semiconductor manufacturing process are very complex. This isn't a basic widget, boss!
Regarding your "Semiconductors are a capital-intensive cyclical business, and Nvidia is no exception.", you forget that Nvidia doesn't manufacture their chips. Their gross margins are 78%. Higher than MSFT's gross margins. They have 57% net profit margins.
@@ventoreal_ CapEx is needed not only for manufacturing but also for R&D, which is Nvidia's case. And it is precisely because of those profit margins that: 1) Both AMD and Intel will be more incentivized to go after Nvidia, whatever time and money it will take 2) Customers cherish increased competition.
@@paolovita1720 Why are all the value investors feel the urge to talk about growth stocks? Their metrics are different, their way of research is different, but still they keep talking about growth stocks like they know everything, anyone investing in growth stocks are just fools, and only value stocks with low PE are the way to invest. They have this mentality of "it's hard to beat the market, just try to be average". They will never see any buying opportunities ina ny growth stocks, because their investing strategy is totally different. Both AMD and Intel are incentivised to go after Nvidia, but they are behind, far away from actually having something close to what Nvidia have. AMD spends almost the entire gross profit into expenses (inclufing R&D). Nvidia spends less than 20% and also spends almost double in R&D. They are making lots of money too. AMD makes almost nothing in net profit. Did you check the revenue growth of AMD? Intel too? Nvidia did 7/8x in the past two years and still have a two digit PE. You probably had the same thinking two years ago about Nvidia being overvalued. When there will be actual competition and no future growth, people will sell (after 10x their money). When Sven talked about buying Intel 3 years ago, I watched his video, the stock price was around 50$ if I remember well. How much did they grow? What progress did they make? The stocks is now at 30$. they are losing to AMD too.
What many don't get, even if their assumptions are correct, all these theories are already priced in. You don't make money in the stock market by being right, you make money by being right while everyone else is wrong. The AI story is already priced in for Nvidia, thus the 40x in the last 5 years. Even if you buy in now and it doubles, this wouldn't mean you made a 2x but you would have missed an 80x. 😅
Didn't Tesla rise after the pandemic because it started making lots of profit from selling cars? Then interest rates rose reducing demand and caused the stock to fall. Correct me if I am wrong but analysts are not pricing Robotaxi or robotics into Tesla stock?
I own NVDA and Im bullish in the very short term, but I appreciate statements like this. It's becomming a bit scary but is very difficult to sell on a run like this. What is your advice to someone looking for courage to sell? :)
Sell a little bit, not all out. So there are realised gains. And when the Stock goes higher and higher, you have enough to patipizitate. And when its going down, you have the abilty to buy back the shares cheaper. Or not, and invest your gains in another good Stocks. Maybe Dividend Stocks.
If the fundamentals of the company don't change then HOLD! Holding AAPL or MSFT for 10-20 years was not a bad thing...in fact it was the right choice. I'm putting NVIDIA up there with AAPL and MSFT and I don't think the company is going away in my lifetime...in fact its on track to be the most profitable in the world soon.
Hi Sven, can you recheck Porsche AG (P911)? Not the holding one with all the moving and family conflicts, but the simple one. PE 12, 3.3% dividend yield and historical sales growth of 10%. Convoluted times with EU tariffs, but I believe it’s an opportunity to buy at such multiple.
As a value investor- couldn’t agree more. Excellent analysis and educational video. I too have been enjoying the show from sideline but have no desire to make multiple baggers from the bubble
Hi Sven, with the expectations that interest rates will go down in the next couple of years, isn’t it good now to take a long term housing loan with fixed interest rate? If the fixed interest rate for a housing loan is 3.5%? I rather think that interest rates will not go down significantly in the upcoming years, and 3.5% seems to be to be a good opportunity for a long term investment.
Hey Sven, a couple of years ago you talked about Stoneco, could you make an update video? In my opinion it has become a compelling investment with potential double digit long term return with a good margin of safety, but I would like to hear yours on the matter. Thanks 😀
Sven, have you given JD a look recently? A 44 billion dollar company that makes 153.5 in revenue annually. They own grocery stores in Europe. They built three autonomous warehouses in California. They just made Gartner's top 25 top global supply chain companies. Also, they've recently started buying back shares aggressively. How long before investors stop overlooking Chinese's companies incredible value and their integrated global presence?
Good warning about bumps ahead with Nvidia. But Sven, what do you think Nvidia will do with all the cash piling up? Build a money bin? 😁They might have some ideas to put it to work. And concerning cycles, data center accelerated compute is so new that current cycle standing is not reliably ascertainable.
Sven does a great job! As for me with my tobacco stocks I don't mind the FOMO but info also have micron which is now a big position hoping FOMO will bring Micron to higher so I can invest in BAT or PM or MO 🎉
I know the industry, there is no competition right now and nation states are the next big customer after mega cap. Growth cannot go on forever, however in Silicon Valley the AI hype train is far from over. Currently the risk is there is 100B in spend and only 10B in revenue, which is the biggest danger, that the app layer revenue cannot catch up to the spending of infrastructure layer. It does pay to be a little careful. One Cramer line I like is: “Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered”.
There are bots in the comment section advertising bots for trading. Thats how you know we living in the future and AI is taking over 😅. NVDA to the moon 🚀 🌝
@Sven Carlin - as always great videos. Criticism is one of the greatest things when you do work - it means you are challenging peoples thinking, I love when it happens, because in that process it gets me to think as well about the responses people give. End of the day, it makes the whole process richer! Thanks for provoking a good thought process on the overall market.
I ended up buying Nvidia, but just as a momentum investment. I plan to sell everything as soon as I see the first sign of momentum being reversed (most likely by the end of year or so), because while I think that Nvidia is posting amazing results, I also think that those results are contingent on the whole situation. Meaning that Nvidia could easily go from +60% to +10% in a year, if certain conditions happen. That being said, Nvidia is not even the most expensive stock in the market by PE PFCF or any of the price measurements. My only reason not to trust thatt this is sustainable is because it feels very cyclical and once the AI bubble explodes (AI will have its usages, but it is not going to change the world tomorrow as so many people are selling), all those P ratios will increase dramatically overnight. But at the moment I have earned more with Nvidia than with the rest of my portfolio so far. I just have to keep an eye out to sell as soon as I am done with this chicken game. Certainly not one of those "invest and forget" stocks, but profitable so far.
tesla is the best comparison. but the difference is that building car ev factories is hard but building chip factories is x2 harder, and designing new chips is x10 harder. cause chips have more patents.
With ETFs and stock buybacks Nvidia can keep going higher or stay at this level for quite a while but we are starting to to see more supply than demand.
I think Btc miners buyers are missing in this analysis because they buy nvda components as well for its miner computer, for this reason, nvda grew up more than its industry. Btc + AI = nvda monopoly
But in all seriousness, this run is giving me heart aches too. Market is very out of sync with the fundamentals. and like always people dont wanna hear about it. there is a reason why Buffet is sitting at an all time record high levels of cash. He conveniently always amasses peak of cash pile just before every bubble pops.
I love the video , Tesla has become a study case for the present moment we are living in. Sven can you look at the Brazilian stocks BBD a big bank in Brazil is down 30%. Another overreaction from Mr Market?
I don't like expensive - I love cheap!!! lol EWZ has PE of 5. Major and diversified commodity producer without geopolitical issues in an inflationary environment. Something is not right here. Is Brazil now cheaper than China?
AI is why mass production lowers price. Education, health care, day care, human services go up, up, up, not down. Mass produced goes down, down, down. We live in the middle.
Nvidia's 90% gross margins are insane. Of course it makes the financials look reasonable. If Apple had a monopoly they could sell iPhones for $5000 a piece and the company would be valued at 50 trillion. As soon as there is Samsung and a few Chinese brands competing the prices need to be lowered by 80%. That is the current position of Nvidia but I doubt their monopoly will last forever.
Nvidia dominated the GPU market for the last 15 years and increased competition from amd and Intel didn't lower any prices. The high end gpus used to be 500$ now you pay 1500$. Do you know why China and Intel never overtook nvidia in the past 15 years? You buy a China gpu once you will get a awful driver and many crashes which makes the more expensive nvidia cards the obvious choice in the future. Same with data centers, not worth buying cheap hardware without Cuda.
@@Torbintimelooking back at the INTC/AMD cpu days, INTC dominated that market for decades, with AMD picking up the crumbs. NVDA is in a similar position. The competition is far behind & has only a small market share. I doubt this will change for at least 3 years. My main concern would be customer appetite. Once the big players (Meta, Amzn, etc) have scaled up, who will buy these chips?
@@jacqdanieles "Once the big players (Meta, Amzn, etc) have scaled up, who will buy these chips?" - The chips last 3-5 years. Before then, technology has likely quadrupled their speed in new chips. The hunger for speed is never ending. Has there ever been a saturation of the chip market?
So, if generative AI can create artistic content for almost no cost, wouldn't that just create a supply glut that will drive the price of artistic content to zero? How can anyone make any money off the product of generative AI, when all the demanded need for the output can be filled so cheaply? I can see how generative AI will destroy the careers of artists, but I don't see how any company could actually make a large amount of money off it. It seems like nobody would be able to make any money in creative industries anymore, and the only people benefitting from AI would be the people building and maintaining the hardware that is doing the calculation, as well as the people supplying electrical power and other utilities to the compute clusters. Am I missing something here?
In the future everyone will spend 15 dollars monthly on AI. Half of that will go to Nvidia Cuda. If 1 billion pays 15 dollars then its 7 billion recurring income for Nvidia. It will be 80 billion recurring Income
You did mention that 50 Billion invested yileded 2 B$ in revenue. I am really skeptical that all those who bought AI technology to apply in their business are able to give an answer to what value they have seen. For example. If AT&T comes and says that we reduced our head count with 10 % with AI that gave us additional 30 % increase in revenue. What I see is, If a Firm is not making money , which in my opinion , there are a lot and they have to let people go, How can they lay off people, for now, AI is a reply, What I really wants to see like this. Nvidia --->Meta ---->GMC ( General Motors )----Car dealers--- > End consumers. I can understand that Nvidia was able to sell those chips to Meta who then used this for their advertising, but does really GM able to increase their revenue by putting AI intoworks .... I can see productviity might be improved for some areas but extreemly challanging to disrupt convential applications. Yes, a lot of research can done by, but can I actually employ 3 peopple who can work for me and I don't need to hire 10 engineers and be able to increase my sales and get to profitability.
@@SmartestDumbGuy Its a good thing, but you have to see the customer service results in next 3 to 6 months. So far , it's horrible as calls almost all the time route to people who do not understand customers.
it is also about when it comes and how - remember we had the batteries boom two years ago, earlier blockchain, now AI, and some of it will live, but we don't know how!
(1) Nvidia is a hard-core tech with significant entry barriers built; Tesla EV tech is a dime a dozen, FSD is not ahead of its Chinese competitors. (2) $50 spent, $3 earned. The AI is in a startup phase, and it's is all about positioning and growth, not about profitability.
Well, according to technical trading there’s an 80% chance of at least a 50% correction. And from what I can see China has already made a vastly superior chip, it just needs to come into production. Also I would like to subscribe to your channel, if you would consider shifting your focus to the real deep value in the world which is the east.
@@Value-Investing I know sven. If you asked me a few years ago if I thought a semiconductor company would get to trillion dollars (let alone 3), I wouldn't laughed and said no ways.
Everything is a bubble until it burst….. who is making and how much they are making from AI is the key. But when it start to show solid profitability ndva might just explode. Investing with forward looking revenue is risk taking if one can take the draw down there is nothing wrong. If not just look elsewhere for value stocks.
Sven, you aim for low-risk stocks with high returns. It's common knowledge that there's a contradiction in that approach, even without a Ph.D. Speaking of which, for you in particular, there's really no need to keep flaunting that title. Let me explain. I recently re-watched your video from a year ago. In it, you claimed that Nvidia was a high-risk investment that wouldn't generate significant returns. Back then, the stock price was about a quarter (around $330) of what it is now. In hindsight, it seems the risk was low and the returns were substantial. By your own logic and your so-called foresight, Sven-I'm not saying it, you are- you should have been advising everyone to go all-in on Nvidia. That was quite the oversight. Your title hasn't necessarily translated into giving sound advice.
I agree with all of your points, I would just like to say that Tesla has always been more of a cult thing rather than a company that had anywhere near the profits of Nvidia. With that said, there does seem to be a recurring phenomenon of growth companies outperforming for a while, the market goes bonkers and drives prices to the moon, and then when something in the growth thesis breaks an absurd sell off happens for years. I've made a lot of money off nvidia, but it is simply too risky and there are better investments out there. The risk outweighs the reward by a magnitude!
I think value investors are too quick to call this a bubble. I think it is but not AI. It is the index bubble at work, the same way that Nvidia easily added an extra trillion to its market cap this year alone was the same force behind Apple adding $200 billion to market cap.
If you are WITH AI, you are making money. If you are SKEPTICAL on AI, you missed the bull run If there is a correction, there will be more skeptics. Its that simple🤣🤣🤣
Next recession video: th-cam.com/video/zptRPKsWOLA/w-d-xo.html
NVIDIA BUBBLE th-cam.com/video/_WiP1RivzLk/w-d-xo.html
If the tech bubble bursts, will the value of stocks also drop due to panic during the crash?
You are linking to the same video
Do you mind sharing your financial planner ?
The major red flag is when even taxi drivers tell you to buy Nvidia.
Some of the taxi drivers used to be programmers who were laid off by tech giants.
Just wait until robotaxis start telling you.
@@ajbahlamnah where
Smart men those Taxi drivers 👍🏻
@@ajbahlam lol thats true I am one of them.. one of my passengers who was a doctor brought it up, and when it comes to stocks they probably know less than uber drivers who come from all sorts of backgrounds
Only guy who speeks normally about Nvidia and not a classic fanboy
Nah crypto people know a bubble when we see it lol. At the very least, it's cyclical.
:-))
The current NVIDIA valuation of $130+ basically mplies a 40% yearly market growth over the next decade with no delays or hiccups at any part of the supply chain and zero competition to reduce the profit margins.
Good luck with all that.
That is the thing,. Nvidia has beaten the expectations so far, but once they can't catch up with the expectations for once it will probably be a bloodbath
:-)))
Thank you Sven for keeping your feet on the ground and staying realistic. A lot of people get carried away with the hypes, the promises, the fear of missing out. The opposite happens as well. That's where value investing opportunities arise. There is no such thing as effective market theory. I'm glad you are sticking with the facts.
Funniest thing about these people saying that Warren Buffet does not understand bitcoin do not realize that Buffet does not like Gold either. People need to listen
yep!
The geezer who sold tsmc but keeps 40% Apple because he thinks tsmc is in a dangerous position but somehow missed the fact that Apple is heavily dependent on tsmc. Sure keep listening to grandpa and his pre ww2 earning stories.
He dislikes gold for much different reasons than he dislikes bitcoin. He recognizes gold has value
Buffet? The guy who bought Paramount high and sold it low? The guy who trimmed his Apple position before it went up 10%? He's told old to understand modern days. He has some good principles here and there, but he should no longer be followed like and investment god.
@@eco-enjoyerare you seriously criticizing Warren Buffett for his investment decisions? That’s the most delusional thing I can think of on an investment channel. He’s literally the most successful investor alive today. He has had so many big long term hits. It makes zero sense to point to his misses other than to say no investor is perfect - not even the best alive.
Good day Sven, keep on, thank you
will do!
Thanks a lot Sven, your videos are great!! Keeps some of us in check! :)
Glad to hear that!
Sunday breakfast with Sven is always a pleasure. Thank you!
enjoy!
For every 20 attacks, there is one person that will get it + be saved from disaster. In April 2021, that person was me. And I will be forever grateful. I watched your consistent teachings from July 2020. I played in the fire too long, but eventually, the message got through 😎🙏 Just in the nick of time.
great to hear!!!
Good analysis Sven. AI and ML have been utilized by all tech companies the last 20 years. The new thing is the emergence of generative AI, or at least public perception of it with chatgpt. The profitability of the Tech is still in question as the only companies making money now are the upstream companies like Dell and Nvidia. Based on the comments here by retail that seems to know everthing about "AI" but truly have no clue on the tec, yet keeps defending the profitability, I believe the mania is near the end.
Good points!
You seem to not understand anything about ai. The concept exists since the 1940s not just 20 years ago. The hardware wasn't nearly powerful enough until recently, that's why we didn't make progress. Also we all heard it before in the 70s how ai was going nowhere and look where it is now.
I think the bubble could be going for some time still. As for A.I. - it's really not that, just bots, imo. They're just selling it with sexy terminology.
@@Torbintime - But how much incremental revenue is the AI training compute producing? Not more than $10s of B, while the caoex has been $100s of B. At some point the hyper-scalers are going to say, ok, this much data centre build out is sufficient, lets reduce capex. The good news is that the order books look good for the next few quarters, not just for nvidia but also for say its HBM memory partner micron.
@@Torbintime - Also they will start to need mostly AI inference chips, and less for training
Bill Gates said in an interview with Michigan Public on June 14:
Absolutely. This is a very, very competitive field. I mean, Google is doing great work. Meta. Amazon. And it's not like there's a limited amount of money for new startups in this area. I mean, Elon Musk just raised $6 billion. It's kind of like the internet was in the year 2000. The barriers to entry are very, very low, which means we're moving quickly.
that is the truth!
What is the impact of a low barrier entry? does it threaten long term stability in earnings in NVDA? even if it does, can’t some players in AI still be winners?
@@joeymachado3122if the barriers of entry are low, nobody will make a profit.
But the barrier of entry is the ability to build data centres and LLM supercomputers needed to drive AI - Is Gates being misleading?
@@joeymachado3122I would translate "low barriers to entry" into Warren Buffet's dictionary as "no moat".
Although in that conversation it was meant for SW developers, it's a bit different for processors, however it's only a matter of time before the competition comes up with a similarly good or cheaper solution. Plus this sector is cyclical. Sooner or later the supply will saturate and drop, the centres will be built, the customer got enough processors and won't need new ones for a while, etc.
Wish TH-cam had recommend your channel to me earlier! Loving the content 🎉
Best Channel on TH-cam
Thanks!
Thank you sir
thank you!
You hit the nail in the head
:-)
Even near the 2022 bottom the valuation was absurd.
Nvidia's revenue for FY23 (ending January 2023) was 27b, flat compared with FY22. Guidance for FY24-q1 was 6.5b, so more flatness.
The average profit margin over the previous years was 28%.
In early 2023, the shares were trading around $150: normalizing by 28% margin on 27b revenue results in a 50x multiple, from a business that at the time was guiding for no near-term growth...
Earning bro, earnings! Nvidia is undervalued
Thanks for sharing!
I doubt that the most followed stock in the world could be undervalued.
@@TheMafuri Meta was really followed and really undervalued
Every time someone tries to put a value on NVIDIA they keep getting it wrong and raise it...again and again. How much are you willing to pay for 28% growth over the next 10 years? If that does happen, which is not unreasonable...the current stock prices pre-split would double. Cha Ching....
🗽 I missed NVDA, AVGO, SMCI... that is investing.🍺
.
I don’t think AVGO is done, probably another 15% upside there.
I missed NVDA but I got AVGO, AMAT and ASML. Got 3 of them during semiconductor stocks meltdown in 2022
:-)
You can miss 99/100 100x gaining companies, and still do very well. You just need to catch one of them at the right time to do better than most people.
@@kurniawanms2 I hold MSFT, AAPL, LRCX, QCOM and TSM... I'm happy with that, but expect at any time a sharp correction .
what do you think about black rock starting a Texas stock exchange?
don't know, likely not amount to much...
Just made another 3% today thank you for your info. Enjoy your 10% a year.
great for you!
Yes, but the difference is, that this one I missed unfortunately. TBH would have already sold 90%+ if I had any NVDA position.
thanks for sharing!
Sven, I love your pragmatic and objective views. It is really important to have the ability to be detached emotionally and act rationally.
Thank you for the videos! And Happy Sunday! :)
Thanks for sharing!
Should i hold a stock which i think will be a multibagger but currently overvalued?
Its hard to hold stocks long term with the value approach? Youll more turn into a swing trader selling again when value is too high?
I simply buy more and more Nvidia
@@R1D1CK69 lol
@@destroya3303 exactly.. :D
hard to know!
Good video Sven! I had stopped watching your viedo for some time... But you are back with your investing style! I also think you progressed even further and are not swinging for the fences that much anymore. Really happy to see that! Keep those videos coming!
Welcome back! I must say, I feel good where I am now! It wasn't the case in the past!
As long as Sven makes bearish video NVDA will continue to vertical line, I don’t make the rules.
hmm i should pay attention to that. usually sven is right but he is always to early...
Hi Sven,
Could you do an analysis on BTI please?
It’s a no growth industry but the company has grown its eps and achieved the highest revenue recently.
Thanks
not my kind of business
what people forget is chips are a commodity. Someone can always come in and undercut NVIDIA's postilion
:-)
I bought NVDA at $430 almost 1 year ago.
Quite pricy now.
Great management there.
The price will correct but they won't end up like Tesla.
thanks for sharing!
You are right on this call, Sven. Semiconductors are a capital-intensive cyclical business, and Nvidia is no exception. Intel is investing in GPUs development and making slow progress, it will take time, but competition will come, as always. This is not a "winner takes all" sector! When everybody is bullish, and the expectations are the highest, the risks are the greatest, and the ticket is not worth the price.
You have no clue; Nvidia is so far ahead. Semiconductors and the semiconductor manufacturing process are very complex. This isn't a basic widget, boss!
thanks for sharing!
Regarding your "Semiconductors are a capital-intensive cyclical business, and Nvidia is no exception.", you forget that Nvidia doesn't manufacture their chips. Their gross margins are 78%. Higher than MSFT's gross margins. They have 57% net profit margins.
@@ventoreal_ CapEx is needed not only for manufacturing but also for R&D, which is Nvidia's case. And it is precisely because of those profit margins that: 1) Both AMD and Intel will be more incentivized to go after Nvidia, whatever time and money it will take 2) Customers cherish increased competition.
@@paolovita1720 Why are all the value investors feel the urge to talk about growth stocks? Their metrics are different, their way of research is different, but still they keep talking about growth stocks like they know everything, anyone investing in growth stocks are just fools, and only value stocks with low PE are the way to invest. They have this mentality of "it's hard to beat the market, just try to be average". They will never see any buying opportunities ina ny growth stocks, because their investing strategy is totally different.
Both AMD and Intel are incentivised to go after Nvidia, but they are behind, far away from actually having something close to what Nvidia have. AMD spends almost the entire gross profit into expenses (inclufing R&D). Nvidia spends less than 20% and also spends almost double in R&D. They are making lots of money too. AMD makes almost nothing in net profit. Did you check the revenue growth of AMD? Intel too? Nvidia did 7/8x in the past two years and still have a two digit PE. You probably had the same thinking two years ago about Nvidia being overvalued. When there will be actual competition and no future growth, people will sell (after 10x their money).
When Sven talked about buying Intel 3 years ago, I watched his video, the stock price was around 50$ if I remember well. How much did they grow? What progress did they make? The stocks is now at 30$. they are losing to AMD too.
Sooo refreshing.Thanks.
I would not sleep calm having NVDA in my portfolio when market is closed ;)
thanks for sharing!
What many don't get, even if their assumptions are correct, all these theories are already priced in. You don't make money in the stock market by being right, you make money by being right while everyone else is wrong.
The AI story is already priced in for Nvidia, thus the 40x in the last 5 years. Even if you buy in now and it doubles, this wouldn't mean you made a 2x but you would have missed an 80x. 😅
:-))
Didn't Tesla rise after the pandemic because it started making lots of profit from selling cars? Then interest rates rose reducing demand and caused the stock to fall.
Correct me if I am wrong but analysts are not pricing Robotaxi or robotics into Tesla stock?
yes, they made a few billions on their cars, but still in the negative
I own NVDA and Im bullish in the very short term, but I appreciate statements like this. It's becomming a bit scary but is very difficult to sell on a run like this. What is your advice to someone looking for courage to sell? :)
Sell a little bit, not all out. So there are realised gains. And when the Stock goes higher and higher, you have enough to patipizitate. And when its going down, you have the abilty to buy back the shares cheaper. Or not, and invest your gains in another good Stocks. Maybe Dividend Stocks.
@@avsthomas could be a reasonable movement. Thanks!
If the fundamentals of the company don't change then HOLD! Holding AAPL or MSFT for 10-20 years was not a bad thing...in fact it was the right choice. I'm putting NVIDIA up there with AAPL and MSFT and I don't think the company is going away in my lifetime...in fact its on track to be the most profitable in the world soon.
enjoy the money!
Hi Sven, can you recheck Porsche AG (P911)? Not the holding one with all the moving and family conflicts, but the simple one. PE 12, 3.3% dividend yield and historical sales growth of 10%. Convoluted times with EU tariffs, but I believe it’s an opportunity to buy at such multiple.
As a value investor- couldn’t agree more. Excellent analysis and educational video. I too have been enjoying the show from sideline but have no desire to make multiple baggers from the bubble
SMART MAN, SVEN!!!😍😍😍
I don't need to be smart, just compound long-term!
Hi Sven, with the expectations that interest rates will go down in the next couple of years, isn’t it good now to take a long term housing loan with fixed interest rate? If the fixed interest rate for a housing loan is 3.5%? I rather think that interest rates will not go down significantly in the upcoming years, and 3.5% seems to be to be a good opportunity for a long term investment.
3.5% is still free money. So, calculate your cash flows long term and see, I don't know whether rates will go down or up!
Hey Sven, a couple of years ago you talked about Stoneco, could you make an update video? In my opinion it has become a compelling investment with potential double digit long term return with a good margin of safety, but I would like to hear yours on the matter.
Thanks
😀
really good analysis Sven!
Thanks!
Sven you are right. Fantasy is more valuable than reality.
:-)
Love your channel Sven. Not sure if I agree with most of your view or not but we need people like you to think better and improve. Thanks for all 🙏
I appreciate that
Sven, have you given JD a look recently? A 44 billion dollar company that makes 153.5 in revenue annually. They own grocery stores in Europe. They built three autonomous warehouses in California. They just made Gartner's top 25 top global supply chain companies. Also, they've recently started buying back shares aggressively. How long before investors stop overlooking Chinese's companies incredible value and their integrated global presence?
investors know about the current values of chinese companies like JD; the problem is political
will update on platform after earnings!
Yes it will😉.
:-)
"then the tesla bubble started to slowly pop".. yes thats exactly how bubbles pop
Thanks for sharing!
Good warning about bumps ahead with Nvidia. But Sven, what do you think Nvidia will do with all the cash piling up? Build a money bin? 😁They might have some ideas to put it to work. And concerning cycles, data center accelerated compute is so new that current cycle standing is not reliably ascertainable.
Best investment is to avoid monthly fees. The repeating fees are the killers. Don't pay the rent. Collect the rent.
thanks for sharing!
I will definitely keep watching all your AI videos! This is like the tech bubble all over again! 🤑
lol....Tech is not going away my guy. Of all the indexes Tech has doubled or tripled in value over the past year.
@@BenJune09 That's what they said in 2000! 😜
:-)
Yeah but Elon said that Tesla would be a $25 trillion company and he never lies! /s
Really ? 25T … wow that is multiple of Apple Microsoft and ndivia combined… realistic? Elon never lies he just don’t deliver ….
If Elon said so!!!
Sven does a great job!
As for me with my tobacco stocks I don't mind the FOMO but info also have micron which is now a big position hoping FOMO will bring Micron to higher so I can invest in BAT or PM or MO 🎉
thanks for sharing!
I know the industry, there is no competition right now and nation states are the next big customer after mega cap. Growth cannot go on forever, however in Silicon Valley the AI hype train is far from over. Currently the risk is there is 100B in spend and only 10B in revenue, which is the biggest danger, that the app layer revenue cannot catch up to the spending of infrastructure layer.
It does pay to be a little careful. One Cramer line I like is: “Bulls make money, bears make money, pigs get slaughtered”.
of course!
just look at the solar bust. due to overcapcity
good point!
Hi Sven! Could you take a look at Match Group MTCH? Thank you.
thanks for suggesting!
There are bots in the comment section advertising bots for trading. Thats how you know we living in the future and AI is taking over 😅. NVDA to the moon 🚀 🌝
:-)))))))
Can’t wait for an another video from Sven when the stock falls and becomes good to own from a risk/reward perspective.
Just like selling shovels during the gold rush.
The us has actually had 2 recessions in the past 4 years, based on the generally accepted definition of a recession
only one, and that was the pandemic one - based on FRED's (the FED) generally accepted definition of a recession
S&p +0.86% today thanks again for the bearish videos!!
enjoy!
i Love Sven, but man, why I wouldnt make easy 10-20k next few months ?
good luck!
@Sven Carlin - as always great videos. Criticism is one of the greatest things when you do work - it means you are challenging peoples thinking, I love when it happens, because in that process it gets me to think as well about the responses people give. End of the day, it makes the whole process richer! Thanks for provoking a good thought process on the overall market.
thanks for that!
Just took a small short position last week
having fun I see
I ended up buying Nvidia, but just as a momentum investment. I plan to sell everything as soon as I see the first sign of momentum being reversed (most likely by the end of year or so), because while I think that Nvidia is posting amazing results, I also think that those results are contingent on the whole situation. Meaning that Nvidia could easily go from +60% to +10% in a year, if certain conditions happen.
That being said, Nvidia is not even the most expensive stock in the market by PE PFCF or any of the price measurements.
My only reason not to trust thatt this is sustainable is because it feels very cyclical and once the AI bubble explodes (AI will have its usages, but it is not going to change the world tomorrow as so many people are selling), all those P ratios will increase dramatically overnight.
But at the moment I have earned more with Nvidia than with the rest of my portfolio so far. I just have to keep an eye out to sell as soon as I am done with this chicken game.
Certainly not one of those "invest and forget" stocks, but profitable so far.
thanks for sharing!
15T is insane
It makes NO sense whatsoever that NVDA has the same market cap as MSFT. 😆
a lot doesn't make sense, but that is the normality for humanity. Always was, always will be!
tesla is the best comparison.
but the difference is that building car ev factories is hard but building chip factories is x2 harder, and designing new chips is x10 harder. cause chips have more patents.
With ETFs and stock buybacks Nvidia can keep going higher or stay at this level for quite a while but we are starting to to see more supply than demand.
thanks for sharing!
I think Btc miners buyers are missing in this analysis because they buy nvda components as well for its miner computer, for this reason, nvda grew up more than its industry. Btc + AI = nvda monopoly
thanks for sharing
The bubble will eventually pop. When? It's simple: when Nvidia will start to see slower growth. We are not far in time from that: 6 months.
More like 3-5 years before slow down...guess you must have missed the last earnings call.
Please add more language option to the videos, thank you🥑
AI should do it soon!
😂😂
Nothing to do with this ✅ thanks Sven
:-)
I dont think you understand "this time it's different" lol.. (Sarcastic)!!
But in all seriousness, this run is giving me heart aches too. Market is very out of sync with the fundamentals. and like always people dont wanna hear about it. there is a reason why Buffet is sitting at an all time record high levels of cash. He conveniently always amasses peak of cash pile just before every bubble pops.
:-)))))
Happy Father’s Day!
Yes you can buy electric car, the question is what electric car do you get for your money.
:-)
What 10%? I have 4x my portfolio with NVIDIA.
thanks for sharing!
Great video as always! But that's just it: when your'saying "bubble" or "price to high", you're talking mostly to deaf ears.
I care only about those that hear me!
I love the video , Tesla has become a study case for the present moment we are living in.
Sven can you look at the Brazilian stocks BBD a big bank in Brazil is down 30%. Another overreaction from Mr Market?
ah, don't know about banks, especially about brazilian
Nvidia is super cheap now.
My price is $400 by 2030
Market cap 10 trillion. I would not hold it for more then 6 years tho.
Nvidia will go to 200 before it goes to 80.
Tesla fanboys assemble, just kidding, here is to hoping Tesla sells a cheaper smaller car for small budget buyers
:-)))
I don't like expensive - I love cheap!!! lol
EWZ has PE of 5. Major and diversified commodity producer without geopolitical issues in an inflationary environment. Something is not right here. Is Brazil now cheaper than China?
Bet his baba position is doing REALLY well
thanks for sharing!
lol!
AI is why mass production lowers price. Education, health care, day care, human services go up, up, up, not down. Mass produced goes down, down, down. We live in the middle.
thanks for sharing!
Nvidia's 90% gross margins are insane. Of course it makes the financials look reasonable. If Apple had a monopoly they could sell iPhones for $5000 a piece and the company would be valued at 50 trillion. As soon as there is Samsung and a few Chinese brands competing the prices need to be lowered by 80%. That is the current position of Nvidia but I doubt their monopoly will last forever.
Nvidia dominated the GPU market for the last 15 years and increased competition from amd and Intel didn't lower any prices. The high end gpus used to be 500$ now you pay 1500$. Do you know why China and Intel never overtook nvidia in the past 15 years? You buy a China gpu once you will get a awful driver and many crashes which makes the more expensive nvidia cards the obvious choice in the future. Same with data centers, not worth buying cheap hardware without Cuda.
This comment and the reply from Torbintime are the 2 main arguments for and against NVDA. I’m divided. I just buy a little bit 😂
@@Torbintimelooking back at the INTC/AMD cpu days, INTC dominated that market for decades, with AMD picking up the crumbs.
NVDA is in a similar position. The competition is far behind & has only a small market share. I doubt this will change for at least 3 years. My main concern would be customer appetite. Once the big players (Meta, Amzn, etc) have scaled up, who will buy these chips?
thanks for sharing!
@@jacqdanieles "Once the big players (Meta, Amzn, etc) have scaled up, who will buy these chips?" - The chips last 3-5 years. Before then, technology has likely quadrupled their speed in new chips. The hunger for speed is never ending. Has there ever been a saturation of the chip market?
So, if generative AI can create artistic content for almost no cost, wouldn't that just create a supply glut that will drive the price of artistic content to zero? How can anyone make any money off the product of generative AI, when all the demanded need for the output can be filled so cheaply? I can see how generative AI will destroy the careers of artists, but I don't see how any company could actually make a large amount of money off it. It seems like nobody would be able to make any money in creative industries anymore, and the only people benefitting from AI would be the people building and maintaining the hardware that is doing the calculation, as well as the people supplying electrical power and other utilities to the compute clusters.
Am I missing something here?
I stupid to start shorting nvda
that is for sure!
If clients are not making big bucks with AI, it can't be a huge market for NVDA's chips.
the reality will hit sooner or later, or clients will suddenly start making a lot of money
It’s best to buy an ETF that covers all stocks involved in AI manufacturing revolution !
In the future everyone will spend 15 dollars monthly on AI. Half of that will go to Nvidia Cuda. If 1 billion pays 15 dollars then its 7 billion recurring income for Nvidia. It will be 80 billion recurring Income
Man, you are making a lot of assumptions
AI is the future 🔮. Nvda to $5000!
Go 3x long then
to da mooooonnnn
Investing is buying cash flow like rents. Speculating on price is radically different. Show me the money. Pay the rent.
:-)
You did mention that 50 Billion invested yileded 2 B$ in revenue. I am really skeptical that all those who bought AI technology to apply in their business are able to give an answer to what value they have seen. For example. If AT&T comes and says that we reduced our head count with 10 % with AI that gave us additional 30 % increase in revenue. What I see is, If a Firm is not making money , which in my opinion , there are a lot and they have to let people go, How can they lay off people, for now, AI is a reply, What I really wants to see like this.
Nvidia --->Meta ---->GMC ( General Motors )----Car dealers--- > End consumers. I can understand that Nvidia was able to sell those chips to Meta who then used this for their advertising, but does really GM able to increase their revenue by putting AI intoworks .... I can see productviity might be improved for some areas but extreemly challanging to disrupt convential applications.
Yes, a lot of research can done by, but can I actually employ 3 peopple who can work for me and I don't need to hire 10 engineers and be able to increase my sales and get to profitability.
I'm going to be replacing my call center with AI... so there's that.
@@SmartestDumbGuy Its a good thing, but you have to see the customer service results in next 3 to 6 months. So far , it's horrible as calls almost all the time route to people who do not understand customers.
it is also about when it comes and how - remember we had the batteries boom two years ago, earlier blockchain, now AI, and some of it will live, but we don't know how!
(1) Nvidia is a hard-core tech with significant entry barriers built; Tesla EV tech is a dime a dozen, FSD is not ahead of its Chinese competitors. (2) $50 spent, $3 earned. The AI is in a startup phase, and it's is all about positioning and growth, not about profitability.
thanks for sharing - and it is not $3 billion earned, it is $3 billion in revenue, thus lost $47 billion :-))))
Well, according to technical trading there’s an 80% chance of at least a 50% correction. And from what I can see China has already made a vastly superior chip, it just needs to come into production. Also I would like to subscribe to your channel, if you would consider shifting your focus to the real deep value in the world which is the east.
thanks for sharing!
Yes Sven. But a 50% haircut still leave it well over a trillion in MC!
hm...
@@Value-Investing I know sven. If you asked me a few years ago if I thought a semiconductor company would get to trillion dollars (let alone 3), I wouldn't laughed and said no ways.
Everything is a bubble until it burst….. who is making and how much they are making from AI is the key. But when it start to show solid profitability ndva might just explode. Investing with forward looking revenue is risk taking if one can take the draw down there is nothing wrong. If not just look elsewhere for value stocks.
NVDA will be worth one quadrillion dollars in 5 years. Short sellers will lose their shirts.
:-))
Sven, you aim for low-risk stocks with high returns. It's common knowledge that there's a contradiction in that approach, even without a Ph.D. Speaking of which, for you in particular, there's really no need to keep flaunting that title. Let me explain.
I recently re-watched your video from a year ago. In it, you claimed that Nvidia was a high-risk investment that wouldn't generate significant returns. Back then, the stock price was about a quarter (around $330) of what it is now. In hindsight, it seems the risk was low and the returns were substantial. By your own logic and your so-called foresight, Sven-I'm not saying it, you are- you should have been advising everyone to go all-in on Nvidia. That was quite the oversight. Your title hasn't necessarily translated into giving sound advice.
I agree with all of your points, I would just like to say that Tesla has always been more of a cult thing rather than a company that had anywhere near the profits of Nvidia. With that said, there does seem to be a recurring phenomenon of growth companies outperforming for a while, the market goes bonkers and drives prices to the moon, and then when something in the growth thesis breaks an absurd sell off happens for years.
I've made a lot of money off nvidia, but it is simply too risky and there are better investments out there. The risk outweighs the reward by a magnitude!
I think value investors are too quick to call this a bubble. I think it is but not AI. It is the index bubble at work, the same way that Nvidia easily added an extra trillion to its market cap this year alone was the same force behind Apple adding $200 billion to market cap.
thanks for sharing!
If you are WITH AI, you are making money.
If you are SKEPTICAL on AI, you missed the bull run
If there is a correction, there will be more skeptics. Its that simple🤣🤣🤣
:-)))