Trump will lose, says near-perfect election predictor | The Story

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 30 ก.ย. 2024
  • For 40 years, Professor Allan Lichtman has honed a near-perfect system for picking the next American president. It was inspired by a Soviet seismologist - but how does he do it? And who is he putting his money on this time?
    This podcast was brought to you thanks to the support of readers of The Times and The Sunday Times.
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    Guest: Professor Allan Lichtman, author of Predicting the Next President: The Keys to the White House.
    Host: Manveen Rana.
    Clips: France 24, Fox News, CNN, ABC News.
    Episode artwork: Getty Images
    Get in touch: thestory@thetimes.com
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ความคิดเห็น • 150

  • @kevinsmith8728
    @kevinsmith8728 4 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +24

    I think the majority of people are getting tired of his bullying. Vote

  • @jeanniesmall6154
    @jeanniesmall6154 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +16

    I voted 🗳 🎉🎉🎉. I am not going back. A future of freedom and prosperity.

  • @ludovicusclericus
    @ludovicusclericus 4 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +31

    I hope and pray Kamala Harris wins the 2024 election, but we can’t rely on predictions. We must vote!

  • @Ezzcare
    @Ezzcare 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +26

    Whenever I get nervous looking at polls showing Trump slightly leading, I just remember this guy’s prediction. Kamala will win.

    • @GeorgeGeorgeOnly
      @GeorgeGeorgeOnly 3 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      🤞
      On the plus side to "looking nervously at the polls", that if people are 'nervous' about the polls then, perhaps that will spur them to turnout and vote.

  • @taxesdeathandtrouble.1886
    @taxesdeathandtrouble.1886 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +23

    Podcast or not you left his face on the face of your podcast the entire time. You could’ve done a side-by-side with her and him but, no no you chose…
    No one wants to see that.

    • @sharonwilliams3185
      @sharonwilliams3185 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +9

      I agree.

    • @eastbaystreet1242
      @eastbaystreet1242 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +6

      Agree. Right now, we need images of hope, not disgust.

    • @apollointhedark5758
      @apollointhedark5758 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      The American dollar and British pound will become worthless.

    • @sharonwilliams3185
      @sharonwilliams3185 4 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      @@eastbaystreet1242 If

    • @sharonwilliams3185
      @sharonwilliams3185 4 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +5

      If Times Radio doesn't remove the photo, I have to assume that they support Trump. I will then cross them off my list of podcasts that I watch as being not responsive to viewers.

  • @Rockinthehill
    @Rockinthehill 6 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +43

    If the orange insurrectionist doesn't lose the American people and the world will definitely loose

  • @Jedipimp
    @Jedipimp 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +9

    I don't hate Trump and I don't like Trump not fond of Joe or Kamala. Trump will lose big time and it will not be close.

    • @howdan1985
      @howdan1985 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      Are you out of your mind? TRUMP is going to win this time in a massive landslide.
      People are seeing through the disgusting, lying word salad Communist SCAMala Harris

  • @SusanDerby-l5o
    @SusanDerby-l5o 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +6

    his method is adaptive and describes a correlation. it is not predictive.

  • @alicemcleod6149
    @alicemcleod6149 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +5

    Most Americans are sick of TRUMP!!!

  • @jonescrusher1
    @jonescrusher1 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +5

    Do we really need these pointless overly-long intros?

  • @kevinking9284
    @kevinking9284 4 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +11

    I support Kamala the supporter of the working class

  • @JayDeeChannel
    @JayDeeChannel 6 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +12

    Lichtmann was wrong about gore but with a caveat.

    • @SideYardCat
      @SideYardCat 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      @@JayDeeChannelGore won in Florida. GOP SCOTUS just stopped the full recount.

    • @TheHighlanderprime
      @TheHighlanderprime 4 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +2

      The Supreme Court then virtually gave it to Bush Jr.

  • @ervinvice1521
    @ervinvice1521 6 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +11

    I’m getting nervous about the hasty over-optimism.

    • @yesicaaguirre1574
      @yesicaaguirre1574 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +4

      Vote blue and get others to vote blue.

    • @Iowan3-0
      @Iowan3-0 3 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +2

      I agree. Action is more important than words of optimism.

    • @GeorgeGeorgeOnly
      @GeorgeGeorgeOnly 2 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +1

      @@Iowan3-0 That's right, Lowan. People can be very complacent, and without realising it. If they think everything's going to be ok then they're more likely to not bother to turn out. They generally don't consider that they still need to do their part in ensuring that everything's going to be ok.

  • @janiecovey9009
    @janiecovey9009 6 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +20

    VOTE BLUE 2024 , HARRIS / WALZ FOR THE WIN

    • @johanneskolenbrander8288
      @johanneskolenbrander8288 6 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      idiots at best!

    • @chrimbus71
      @chrimbus71 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      Vote for War - YAY

    • @TheHighlanderprime
      @TheHighlanderprime 4 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +2

      Up and down the ballot so that Kamala can fix the damage done by Trump.

    • @chrimbus71
      @chrimbus71 4 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      @@TheHighlanderprime you mean the wars on the dems watch

    • @Iowan3-0
      @Iowan3-0 3 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      @@chrimbus71Kamala is Anti-War. We’re voting for her because we hate war.

  • @alicemcleod6149
    @alicemcleod6149 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +3

    Egads, what a horrible photo!!!

  • @jacklav1
    @jacklav1 3 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +1

    I'm surprised that they didn't talk about immigration and that Allan Lichtman hasn't updated his model to take account of it. It's become the number 2 issue and wasn't ten years ago.

  • @simmogj
    @simmogj 4 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +1

    The big unknown is that in many families and communities, many people feel intimidated and will not say how they will vote. This number , especially among women and younger voters in families, could be high.

  • @ColinBeck-f9n
    @ColinBeck-f9n 3 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +1

    PAX AMERICA WAS AN ABSOLUTE GOD SEND! __ THANK YOU AMERICA! ___ KEEP UP THE GOOD WORK!

  • @campcookhenry
    @campcookhenry 4 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +3

    It’s not that close trump is losing

    • @PaulHere1953
      @PaulHere1953 3 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      Winning, big time!

    • @campcookhenry
      @campcookhenry 2 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +1

      @@PaulHere1953hahaha yeah his own prison cell

  • @mikeymike96
    @mikeymike96 5 นาทีที่ผ่านมา +1

    Yeah yeah yeah we heard this in 2016 😂

  • @henryburton6529
    @henryburton6529 4 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +1

    🤣so he has a perfect record as that election was stolen!!

  • @dr.williams5251
    @dr.williams5251 4 นาทีที่ผ่านมา

    The professor wasn't exactly wrong about 2000. Gore didn't lose until the SCOTUS stopped the vote count in FLA. The decline in 3rd party voters handed President Biden that Key in the 2020. 7+ million voted for 3rd parties in 2016. That dropped to 3 million in 2020. It's expected to be even lower this year.

  • @jonathanheyse5314
    @jonathanheyse5314 3 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

    I want the Felonious Pumpkin back in court every day and then in prison for all of his convictions. This circus has gone on long enough.

  • @rosstocher
    @rosstocher 6 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

    And the sun will rise with pride colors also tomorrow. This of course will be welcome for the fairy's at the Times.

  • @emmanueldaillet1290
    @emmanueldaillet1290 2 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

    Well but you forget to talk about Congress and Senate where nothing is done yet.

  • @nigelmansfield3011
    @nigelmansfield3011 8 นาทีที่ผ่านมา

    The only poll that matters is how the voters actually vote.

  • @foofyguy
    @foofyguy 4 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

    I think most people remember Hilary's "basket of deplorables" comment during her campaign. =O

    • @zenlandzipline
      @zenlandzipline 4 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +1

      “Bushell” would have been more accurate

  • @Elainemacpherson-zj7dk
    @Elainemacpherson-zj7dk 14 นาทีที่ผ่านมา

    No one is perfect

  • @leefisher816
    @leefisher816 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

    lol keep trying

  • @paulturner3590
    @paulturner3590 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

    Russian trolls hard at work in the comments already I see 🤣

    • @apollointhedark5758
      @apollointhedark5758 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      The American dollar and British pound will become worthless.

  • @Exspert_In_A_Dieing_Field
    @Exspert_In_A_Dieing_Field 2 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

    😁Facts😁

  • @Skygrey2943
    @Skygrey2943 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +3

    Trump is saying some wild stuff at the moment.

    • @howdan1985
      @howdan1985 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      Oh and SCAMala isn't? All she spouts is garbage word salad nonsense

  • @robertparsons313
    @robertparsons313 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +2

    Only Saint Peter has the keys.

  • @amberowens3244
    @amberowens3244 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +1

    Hey Allan- I notice you have no problem blaming Nader for blowing 2000 for Gore... yet don't quite blame Sanders & Stein for the exact same practice in 2016 🤔 don't make me say you're a misogynist because I know you aren't.

    • @TheHighlanderprime
      @TheHighlanderprime 4 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      You’re not wrong. Many progressives sabotaged HRC out of the same kind of hate that existed in the far right.

    • @jordynshepard7111
      @jordynshepard7111 4 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +1

      This comment makes no sense.

  • @patrickpowell5430
    @patrickpowell5430 6 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +7

    Frankly, such predictions are utterly pointless. Let’s wait for the real vote.

    • @drummingtildeath
      @drummingtildeath 6 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +1

      Bizarre thing to say after deliberately clicking on a video dedicated to predicting the polls. Like, why are you here if you think it's pointless?

    • @patrickpowell5430
      @patrickpowell5430 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      @@drummingtildeath Do you not also listen to those you disagree with? I was curious as to his methodology. You tell me what the point of such predictions is.

    • @yesicaaguirre1574
      @yesicaaguirre1574 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      Well, this system has been consistently effective for many years, but the most important thing is that people go out and vote.

    • @drummingtildeath
      @drummingtildeath 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      @patrickpowell5430 I don't listen to things that I label 'utterly pointless'. What would be the point?
      Doesn't matter though, I just thought what you said was kind of amusing

    • @patrickpowell5430
      @patrickpowell5430 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      @@drummingtildeath Well, try it. Having an all-round view / understanding, including that which you don’t agree with is very useful, and a lot healthier than living in an echo chamber as I suspect you do. Mind you’re not the only one, but doing so is dangerous as it gives you a skewed, unreal impression of an issue / problem.

  • @captainahab9602
    @captainahab9602 6 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +3

    Pokémon go to the polls 2016 vibes

  • @Kenneth-t3u
    @Kenneth-t3u 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +3

    Im a democrat and i believe what the media tells me to believe

  • @RobertLund-d7d
    @RobertLund-d7d 4 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +1

    " Trump will lose". You wish.

    • @dontiavang558
      @dontiavang558 2 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +1

      Okay Einstein, if Trump doesn't lose, then you'd lost okayed? 😮

  • @lancersharpe
    @lancersharpe 6 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +6

    Times Radio so biased.

    • @dentyx
      @dentyx 6 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +4

      Hows it biased? Seems perfectly reasonable and thought out

    • @howdan1985
      @howdan1985 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      Thank you! Yes 100% they're so biased against Donald Trump it's absolutely disgusting.

    • @howdan1985
      @howdan1985 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      ​@@dentyxEvery single piece they run is a negative hit piece against Donald Trump and for Kamala Harris. It's absolutely clear they have a biased agenda

    • @lancersharpe
      @lancersharpe 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      @@dentyx In bed with BBC...

  • @TheKopfjager
    @TheKopfjager 4 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +1

    How much did Kamala pay y’all??

    • @rayvanwayenburg998
      @rayvanwayenburg998 4 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      🤡🤡🤡

    • @BrianMoore-uk6js
      @BrianMoore-uk6js 4 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +4

      Nothing. We're voting for Kamala because she's the better candidate and leader.

  • @PaulHere1953
    @PaulHere1953 3 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

    There is no way President Trump will lose, unless it’s fixed.

  • @Goodnews99457
    @Goodnews99457 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

    Alan is wrong

  • @foxsparrow8973
    @foxsparrow8973 6 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +3

    This port strike can win Trump the election

    • @taxesdeathandtrouble.1886
      @taxesdeathandtrouble.1886 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      Longshoreman are a clever group. They know when to strike and Joe is a labor president. They’ll get 75% of what they’re asking for and thank Joe for stepping in.

    • @chrimbus71
      @chrimbus71 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      and the war and the no help from Helene

  • @lalsonsuantak4546
    @lalsonsuantak4546 6 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +1

    This is absurd and a jokes

  • @rhythmstic
    @rhythmstic 6 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +2

    It is so obvious that Trump will win hands down, so what is this video ... claptrap?

    • @lenseofclarity9997
      @lenseofclarity9997 6 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +6

      Explain why it's so obvious please.
      What's your evidence or analytic method?

    • @patrickpowell5430
      @patrickpowell5430 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      So obvious many disagree with you, especially the MAGA folk who have lost patience with Trump and fewer and fewer are attending his rallies, so much so that his team is hiring far smaller venues so it is a lot less obvious.

    • @SideYardCat
      @SideYardCat 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา

      @@lenseofclarity9997 They live in a rightwing silo. The only information they get is Russian/Republican propaganda. All friends they had who might think differently have given up. When these GOPs say ‘everyone believes’ or something like that it’s because the only thing they ever hear are opinions they already agree with.

    • @rosslevitates
      @rosslevitates 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +10

      @@lenseofclarity9997 sadly Trump supporters generally don’t think at this level.

    • @Skygrey2943
      @Skygrey2943 5 ชั่วโมงที่ผ่านมา +7

      Err he failed at the debate and everywhere he goes he says something wild.