The current state of Fantasy Premier League... (and how to use it to your advantage)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 23 ก.ย. 2024
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Fantasy Premier League is changing, and if you don't keep up, you'll get left behind.
In this video I talk about the current state of FPL, including the use of analytics and statistics, using predicted points, effective value, and AI for fantasy decision making. We will also discuss team leaks, and their impact on the wider FPL community. And finally we will discuss player pricing, the template, and potential changes to the FPL game.
Hopefully this video will provide great tips ahead of Gameweek 1 of the new FPL 2024/25 season.
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I was watching every vid of urs all season. I got bored of the analytics and data and decided to wing the end of the season. I went on a 17 game week green arrow streak and I broke top 100k. Sometimes playing fresh makes it fun, still like your content tho. I went for WC18, WC27, BB23, FH34, and TC25
It was so fun to play freely and I do recommend, you can still watch the data and help take a well thought risk, but I do encourage free style gaming lads. Thanks mate a lot !!
The intro song slapped harder than ever for this video 😂
😂😂😂
And there’s me. Made drunk transfers, knee jerk transfers to catch price rises, missed deadlines and captaincies during the busy Christmas period and still ended up 55k overall 😅.
That is criminal!
Still dropping FPL content after the season has ended... Legend❤
Drop a like for him. On the vid and down here as well👇🏽
Analytics get consistent results. Taking risks is what wins and winning is the only thing we are all chasing. The people who somehow properly walk the line between analytics and risk, typically finish the highest.
OK, so I take it in the coming season you will be picking your FPL team based on xP?
Of course you won't, because it is a terribly inaccurate metric given the analytic models around.
@johnhamilton7762 Seems you didn't even actually read my post but decided to respond based off of emotion. I would bet my life that nobody has ever won FPL by analytics but analytics have proven to get all these "experts" solid end of season ranks. If you're trying to make a living off FPL videos, rank matters, otherwise unless you finish first, nobody sees, knows or cares about your rank. Gotta take risks to win and it's typically more fun. Especially since you don't win anything for finishing number one
@johnhamilton7762 Lol. At least you admit it. That's more than 98% of people could ever say these days. Much respect
This was my first proper fpl season. I had found it fun toward the end of last season around GW30 when I started to try a bit more without actually understanding fpl stuff and I got some of the highest scores in my friend group mini leagues. I don’t think I gained much rank because I was making too many transfers and taking hits but I didn’t understand that, I was just bringing in who I thought was good. This season was much less fun in my opinion, as the standard boring ‘we are all the same’ team kept performing well. The only decisions that I made that were totally against this were not owning Rashford and Bruno at the start of the season which helped me get to 2k itw in GW2 and stay in the top 20-50k for around 10 game weeks. After this trying that strategy got less and less effective and I started to lose rank by going for the differential option, most notably when in week 30 I went for Nunez over Isak which lead to 10 red arrows in the next 11 game weeks. I’m going to try to continue to go against the AI lame stuff as much as possible while still doing pretty well, but I fear that the game will just get monotonous as everyone will merge onto having the 15 of the same 20 players which will just be so boring. I really hope that next season is better than this season because by the end I was a bit disappointed, not just with my rank lost, but with the general state of teams for the last 10-15 game weeks being all the same.
Edit: I wrote so damn much wow! I really hope some people actually read this although it is likely that almost no one will
I think that sometimes way too much emphasis is put on expected goals and assists, on paper Nunez was brilliant, in the pitch, not so much ...
I read it. Sounds like you know how to play the game. I just would not use expected stats to pick your team. They are a bad metric.
@@johnnyboy-f6v I use the underlying numbers of a player/team as well as of their opponents (so fixtures) instead of an AI. I know it’s not the best metric but combining stats and fixtures worked a lot until the end of the season when I had too many injuries to make the moves I wanted to.
Great analysis. As a gamer myself, I second everything you've said. I play FPL for 15 or so years. At first I was very interested in football, but now I'm not and I don't watch it at all. And I can still compete, thanks to raw data that can be acquired from Internet. Including this place, ofc :) thanks for the effort and keep up the good work 👏
Loved the video here Dan. As someone with a statistical finance background and education I am happy you are choosing to embrace AI, ML approach.
I became a follower of the approach after using FFF expected points tool to make a transfer for Burnley defender Erik Pieters during a double game week a few seasons back. He returned double digits for me as (i think) the highest defender score for that week.
I do however believe that there are strategic choices and coin flip scenarios which can make or break your season and ultimately I prefer to trust my own informed judgement.
This season I gambled on the first DGW (29) when everyone was free hitting and saved my free hit which paid off big. This was a decision driven by my risk tolerance.
I decided to gamble against AI on Gusto being fit in the final weeks.
While the statistics are great, we must uphold our own judgement especially in the face of lineup leaks, touch and go injuries, coin flip scenarios and strategic choices.
Agree all round!
The biggest issue I faced this season was swapping out players that were injured for others that then immediately got injured too.. I took a few -4's as a result of this - especially midseason this past year. Can't ever anticipate for that in any statistical model! I did get ranked 558 for GW7, but ended up overall ranked 942K - and highest overall rank was in GW35 736K. (4 times over 100points)
Exactly!
You think a few -4s is the reason you placed 1mil overall?
@@lucascleeve7052No.. But for the sake of 30 points my rank would have been circa 700K instead of 949K. So a few points meant a lot in the ranks.. Also that's not the point of my initial comment.. It's false hope to think a reliance on AI/models is going to be a silver bullet. The factors I describe were supposed to emphasise that.
Interesting, insightful, helpful. Well done, Dan.
Excellent insights as always, Dan. Well done & thanks.
When i saw the thumbnail i expected this to be a rant style video, positively surprised.
I guess no more picks like Neal Maupay from you😅
I could have very easily made this as a rant-style video tbf, but I think I would have just come across as salty.
I think it’s better to try to look at this as a learning opportunity!
(And yes, no more troll picks 😂)
Dan, this is really really good and I'm very impressed with your analysis of FPL. 🎉 This has been your best video ever!
Wow, thanks!
Really enjoyed this one Dan, I appreciate this is the future of Fpl but honestly there’s nothing more satisfying than having your own chosen differentials scoring big in a game week… Robots aren’t taking my fun away 😂
I think one way to improve game is to limit players from each team to 2, should make teams slightly different rather than template
I agree, but the masses would not enjoy that
there would still be a template team, not sure it would make any difference ... maybe go the other way and allow unlimited, that may be more fun 🙂
FPL Mate = The most available tactic, effectively
Always here and available!
Mate this is brilliant, thought u would be on holiday, bravos 👏🏾👏🏾👏🏾
One of your best videos!
Great content. Have enjoyed watching your videos this year. Thanks for all the hard work. 👍
You are welcome!
Great video Dan, different style but i really enjoyed it. probably one of your best videos so thanks mate. have a good summer
Hands down. I reckon this is your best content on FPL.
Thank you!
Following content creators on TH-cam and accounts on Twitter took me from 9th to 1st in my mini league. Exposure and analytics is very important now with the increased number of engaged managers.
I believe the lack of defensive points has had a big impact as well. Have more than 3 defenders start in a gw is just about unheard of. Attackers have so much more upside and consistent clean sheets are apparently a thing of the past. just makes for less variety and more template teams.
Thank You Dan..Looking Forward For Your Content Next Season..Absolutely Legend :-)
very good video, I hope you manage to make more like this over the summer 😎
Possibly!
Pricing needs a massive change. Would prefer an adjustment to the points system as well. As unlikely as a change is
Great video. Defomby far the best FPL content.
Mehn! I was surprised to FPL content after the season has ended. I give it up to you 🙌🙌🙌.
Are you doing content for the Euros Dan?
Yes sir, first video likely on Sunday
Good video. Totally agree on most points. Solvers will only increase and create a new top 10K. For me I play it my way, If you dont make shit decisions, then you dont have the highs of a last minute winner from your captain. Each to his own. It wont be long before top 100K is the new meta rank. My team my emotions.. Its just a game.
My group of friends (5 people) are drawing teams out a hat next season to make it more interesting. There’ll be 4 teams each and there will be 4 tiers of 5 teams based on last seasons form (e.g we’d each get one of the top 5 and so on)
FPL was not as fun this year as in the past, can’t put my finger on it but prob won’t be playing in the future. I think the model should be more like American football fantasy.
Hey Dan! Have been watching your videos all season and have helped me get a 120k rank in my first ever season of fpl. Unfortunately dropped 40k in the final 2 game weeks as in gameweeek 36 had a 78 k rank. I especially enjoyed your buy sell keep videos aswell as your player tier lists. Will you be playing euro fantasy this year as I would love to see that content! Thanks 😊
Point 3 - where you say they’re trying to get as many players as possible…. Why don’t they advertise or push it? Never see ads for it
I think it advertises itself tbh!
I think the biggest change should be pricing for sure. Making people pick players from weaker teams is a sure fire way of forcing people to think a little bit. As someone that plays a lot of Strategy based games, there is nothing more frustrating that seeing a complex game you love get a sequel that chimps could play successfully. All because they want to increase the playerbase.
Notification squad here ✊
🫡
Glad to see you’re still here! 🤝🏼
@@FPLMate since Day 1... 😊
It is only fun and rewarding if you make your own choices.
Dan, how does one become a member of the bullet wisdom community ?
Fantastic video, Dan
I would like to see a lot of price rises. Sure it might make the game a bit harder but it might also make it more fun.
I think its better when there are more diverse teams that involve players from mid table teams rather than 3 City, 3 Arsenal, 2 Liverpool, 1-2 Chelsea, 1-2 United, Watkins and/or Gordon.
This past season I never felt stuck, unable to get in any transfer I wanted. I always had money in the bank
Unless there is some chip changes I think upping the prices will make everyone think outside the box a bit more.
Well, that misses the point of what fpl is. It's not abiut making it fun for the most engaged players that want it to be more difficult/varried/non-template, it is there to appeal the masses of football fans that just want their favorurite players and have fpl as a little added bonus when watching football and absorbing PL content. The average player have no interest in seeking out information on Ipswich players or finding listed defenders playing as wingers for their respective teams.
I've always played for fun and am more interested in winning a mini league opposed to the main game, which in fairness as nice as it is to get a high rank I'm noy overly fussed. Putting in hours studying analytics I can't think of anything more tedious as life is meant to be lived outside of FPL. If this is the way it is going I think it's time to knock the game on the head as I'm sure I'll be bored stiff with what I see as a game. Oh well, it was fun while it lasted.
Really enjoyed this!
why isn't it August yet ... getting cold turkey ...
Thanks Yelena!
Which websites would you recommended for the analytics data? Great video!
Will speak about this a little more next season, currently I am using the one in the link at the top of the video description
I was waiting for you to share how we can become an 'analytics' manager but there weren't any steps. Will you be sharing this?
Will go through it more when next season starts properly
Welcome to the analytical side
Interesting video.
I won 6 of 7 of my mini leagues, but i don't think i saw up to 6 games all season. I wasn't an analytical manager either, but i finished 130k off watching TH-cam videos for player news and following my gut, especially with captaincy. I missed a lot of deadlines in September and November 😅
Nice POV. i finished 1948 , 13k and 97k in the last 3 seasons in a row. where does it put me ?
Banger video. Love it
Great video Dan👌
With every year that passes the fun gets squeezed more and more out of FPL.
Personally speaking, I find UEFA and FIFA related fantasy far more fun over the last several years. The concrete times are part of it. Whereas the EPL, there are midweek games galore. Maybe because the TH-cam content isn't anywhere near as overbearing as with EPL, not meant at you as a slight btw, but now so many people play, and the meta core 11 is very set pretty quickly. So there is little deviation. Like, remember first half for the season for example.
Definitely know what you mean!
Did not expect this
I predict that this years winner wont make the top100k next season. Like the previous winner didnt. Fpl is still 99,9% luck when it comes to winning it. Everyone has the same information.
I don't think it is as high as 99.9% luck, but there is definitely some good fortune involved. If you go very strong on the template then you can guarantee quite a good finish, so the luck, I guess, is getting the odd differential right to push you up the final few places ...
I for one will welcome our robot overlords Dan!
😂😂
Its supposed to be a game anout humans competing. Fpl has gone so shit with everyone using ai to make their decisions. Its like city having 115 charges
So next season I’m gonna copy what a computer tells me to do to try and come first 🤣 Great alternative video for the off-season!
What fantasy euros are you doing dan
Lots of different videos, I can’t wait!
Guys what do you think of official fpl owners allowing people to create mini leagues where by money prizes are awarded to the better performers in the game.....the Idea will basically work like this....as a League owner you pay a certain amount of money for your league to exist in the official fpl ( for example pay 300usd) that will also ensure you won't robe participants their money after being number 1,2,3 etc....for people who wish to join the league there will be a joining fee (for example 1 USD ) for the whole season and in return you can issue out your prizes for number 1 2 and 3.it can be league owners decision on how much money does he wish to give the winners.....I know people are doing it right now but it's illegal and it's not safe for participants who will be supposed to win..... this will also gives us a reason to play fpl more.... Cause right now we are getting stressed after a bad game week for no reason
Money leagues are against FPL rules, it’s a game played by both adults and kids, with various gambling laws around the world too.
The grind continues
And it won’t stop!
@@FPLMate 💪
Love to see it
I don’t understand people using analytics and ai to tell them what to do, it’s not fun to do that Idm finishing in the top 500k atleast it’s a way to learn throughout years when to use certain chips and think about when and who your signing
For me this i played out of principal i don't believe in leaving something mid game but this is the least interested i've been in fpl in all my years and i've played 10 years now. I've watched fewer videos / content stuff like team leaks and content creators / Ai's have ruined the game and nobody wants to be different . For me one change i'd like to see if they move the deadline 24 hrs before a match to stopt eam leaks .
I also am pretty unhappy with the current format of getting points off your bench like yes i've benefitted from it who hasn't but getting rewarded for not managing your team if you go innactive is silly to me same with captaincy when someone captains an injured player to take the P out of the game knowing they'll get vice points it's just a load of nonsense to me. For me the game needs major change / shakeup it doesn't suprise me people stopped playing in record numbers.
They could make each gameweek run from (for example) Tuesday to Monday, regardless of what game are being played. There are rarely any Tuesday games, we would get some doubles, and possibly a few blanks for some teams too ...
Youre legend mate 😆
So, I noticed a lot of the year that I would be scoring above average on points per week and still get red arrows. I placed 1.4 million rank and I normally don't place that low. Are these "market dynamics" in the video catering to casual players in a high scoring season with "cheap player costs" why that happened? Last couple years I started to notice this trend, yet this year was over the top. I have never experienced a year like this in which I would score75 points in a game week, average lets say is 58, and I see red arrows in all my leagues. I became very disenchanted, why bother?
That's because with the increase of number of teams, the number of dead teams (managers not longer engaged, letting injured, sold, suspended players fill up their team) will pull the average down a lot. So the average point per game week from fpl is meaningless when you some game weeks in are looking at millions of dead teams that regularly will score abysmal. There are pkenty of sites that track live (active) teams and what your points score actually need to be compared to other active managers.
@@axels9179 thank you, that is helpful.
Will you do for Euro 2024??
Yep, first video coming on Sunday!
@@FPLMate can't wait
For me the problems are complexed and some of the are coming from outside the game, but from football in general.
First issue - number of games and fatigue. Players are used like milking cows, playing an absurd amount of games - Leagues, CUPs, european trophies and national teams, These players rarely have a rest, which leads to a decline of form, but most notably - worse defending. Easy stats - This yers, bar Arsenal - the second most clean sheets were by.... Everton and City with 13 and in fourth you had Fulham, who were SHIT with 10. 10 clean sheets. By comparrison - 2021-2022 had 2 teams with over 20 CS, two with 16. In total ELEVEN teams with at least 11 or more CS. Now, you have 3. And this is a trend. This will only get worse, which leads to less variance, because defenders get obsolete and redundant. Bar Arsenal defenders you could just pick some cheap options, as the appeal is just not there. We only had a pocket of opportunity between GW8 and 16 where Trent + Trippier combo was beating Haaland (he was injured then to be fair). So first thing - you move money out of defense. This means that the strong teams that tend to keep more CS are tired and are keeping less.
Second issue - pricing - This is connected to the first issue - since you remove defenders out of the equation you can actually pretty easily stack up Haaland, Saka, Son, Salah and Palmer this season + a Watkins. There is no variance, even if you wanted to have it. But this issue won't be fixed as they will no make the game harder, as it will just alienate the casuals (not disrespect, I actually to am more of a casual). The funny thing is, is that they think they will engage people more if it is easier, but this just brings more people on the beginning, but they naturally fell off anyways, as they do not want to put the effort. Proof of that is the FPL challenge. They wouldn't need this thing if people were getting more engaged.
For me next season - make Saka 11, make Foden 10.5, make KDB 10.5, make Odegaard 9 - make Arsenal defenders at least 7, make Palmer 9, or a 10, make Watkins 10. Mak Gvardiol 6.5. The decline in pricing is ridiculous. When Bowen had his brilliant season a couple of yeasr ago he was immediately priced at 8.5, when Mitoma had a great season last year, this year he was only priced at 6.5. The issue is that now you do not have variance in strategies and in picks. You can have 5 out of 6 top players easily, without actually sacrificing anything. You should have a choice in a way where out of 8 options you can have 5 without actually damaging your team that much, which will lead to some changes and decisions.
Calling team leaks fair because they are acessible to everyone is crazy. Almost nobody wants to be up at 3 a.m. (or whenever) on Saturdays just to consume team leaks. It's a huge advantage for those in and around England and farther east.
Effectively AI is just playing against itself.
Yep 😅
all this makes me think about quitting this game -if people who don't even watch the games but use analytics almost exclusively win at the game then they are not really managing but simply copying an engine created team, Pricing to make things accessible is also a big problem as are leaks that benefit those in Britain but hurt others around the world,
Hey how r u mate ?
Good, couldn’t stay away from TH-cam for too long 😂
Fpl is declining I think because more and more people are being drawn Sorare.
The fpl prizes are just shocking compared to sorare for example. You can put together a team on sorare for £15 or so. Some FPL leagues have entry fees at that price. And you can potentially win up to thousands of ££££ each competition which runs twice a week. Your scouting and research is far more rewarded there, FPL is no longer the front runner in fantasy football
basically
if u finished highly this year, you're likely to be a boring robot 😂
The video's 16 minutes yet 7 comments within 4 minutes
Imo team news has ruined fpl
Ai model 😂madness
I wish you could sub during a game
AI models ruined the game.....
Agree
This time let me win mini league please....
The game is dead.
Im playing for both win and fun but the fun part for me is not choosing players I don't like for example as a Chelsea fan I hate havertz and even though everyone chose him while he was on from I decided that I don't want to have points from this German guy because I just don't like him