This is the “Most Sensible” guest you have in recent weeks. Does anybody not remember Allen Greenspans statement? “ the market is experiencing irrational exuberance”. Investors were smart until they were not! Wait until the rugs pulled out 😅
Crash or no crash, when everything is pushing ATH, it's time to start trimming some of the fat and increase dry powder. I'm considering diversifying my portfolio of $200k to hedge against downturns but unsure of the best strategy to do so.
Predictions like these often turn out to be wrong. You should consult with an expert to help you diverse your port safely so you don’t get burnt by your emotions
It's better to be prepared. Even if nothing happens, having a diversified portfolio can protect us from other risks. I was going solo without much success until my wife introduced me to an advisor. I've achieved over 80% capital growth this year, excluding dividends. Highly recommend!
They don't need to. Profit, earning, math aren't necessary for crypto markets, why would they need them for stock markets? (I'm being semi-sarcastic here.)
Fundamentals don't matter in trading. All that matters is price movement. Good traders don't care why its moivng they just want it to move. The why can be lied about, cooked..... look at ENRON. That was horrible, unless you were a good trader and then you were printing your own money 😂
Thank you Adam. Mr. Oakley's assessments are all the validation I need to remain 90% T-bills and 10% gold...waiting....waiting...waiting to buy back in. It has been difficult watching the bulls these past two years...but preservation is the name of the game in this extraordinary bubble.
You have missed market gone up 50% in the last two year. Why can’t you just ride the trend and when the shit hit the fans, you can get out really quick. Market won’t decline 33% in one day for you to just break even.
BEST (or at least one of the best) interviews on the subject I've ever heard in many, many years. And that last bit: "make sure your kids can stand on their own two feet": kind says it ALL.
Most people should just build an emergency fund, and pay down debt. And then BEFORE increasing cost of living with other debt and commitments (homes, car, toys), build an even bigger emergency fund for those fixed and variable costs. Simple math: invest in stocks and maybe you get ~ 7.5% long term return × 75% = 5.625% after tax return with high risk. Invest in your own debt which say is 6% and you are better off. That 6% pre tax would be (dependent on tax brackets of course) something like 6% after tax ÷ 75% = 8% pre tax equivalent return. Do the math for yourself. Of course there are tax sheltered accounts. There are also people with higher interest rates and those that maxed out tax sheltered accounts, or want to reduce risk of losing money in the near term. I'm playing the dumbell approach since nobody seems to have a clue when things will crash: pay down debt and dont take on new debt, keep cash pile growing, keep some exposure to higher risk index funds and commodities in case of inflation melt up; live below your 100% means and this will allow you to sleep comfortably under really any scenario
What I find totally disgusting about the stock market bubble and the housing bubble is the role played by the Fed and the Congress over many years. How do you spell “CORRUPTION”?
Well, this is why I don’t participate in political discussions anymore because it’s a waste of breath, they’re all terrible and rooted purely in self interest.
During his first term the President elect said he would balance the budget.(missed by 7 1/2 trillion). Forgive me if I also don’t believe he will be an agent for peace and prosperity. Thanks to your guest for setting the record straight. Note for the usually brilliant Adam…hope is not a strategy.
I am a client of Oxbow here in Corpus Christi. I met Mr Ted Oakley today, after Courtney Bechtol reviewed everything, These guys are the top of the A list. I could not be happier with my wealth management, we are all set. Thank you Courtney and Ted!
45:25 - You could also make the argument that some corporations with large cash piles may choose to divert some or all of that to dispatch the debt that they might otherwise roll over, in order to avoid the higher rates, and this depletion of their cash pile will reduce the amount of share buybacks they can engage in, and share buybacks have been a major support for rich valuations of shares by lowering EPS through what's almost like a kind of accounting gimmick. My guess would be the strategy for companies will be a mix of: 1) more cost-cutting measures, some of which will include layoffs, and some of which will include reducing capex or renegotiation of contracts (these will hurt the economy more broadly), 2) reduction in profit margins through higher servicing cost for debt that they do choose to roll over at higher rates, 3) reduction in cash by using cash to pay off some debt, thereby reducing cash available for share buybacks, 4) reduction in or outright canceling of dividends to shareholders.
Another great interview from Ted. Always a favourite guest for sure! Thanks to both gentlemen for their time and efforts in bringing us this valuable content.
*I really appreciate your clear and simple breakdown on financial pitfalls! I lost so much money on stook market but now making around $18k to $21k every week trading different stocks and cryptos*
You work for 40yrs to have $1M in your retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $10K into trading from just few months ago and now they are multimillionaires
Most rich people stay rich by spending like the poor and investing without stopping then most poor people stay poor by spending like the rich yet not investing like the rich but impressing them. People prefer to spend money on liabilities, Rather than investing in assets and be very profitable
Absolutely NO where to hide in equities when a big correction comes. Seen it since 1970… IF we repeat big corrections, it will beat you up more than you can understand…..until you have a rear view mirror after smoke clears. It’s more than dollars lost, it’s how it affects everyone else….lost hope and bleak outlooks will grind one’s mind and confidence. Years to recover. ……….. Car wreck without emergency services……got the picture?? Good luck.
While I agree with Ted and Adam's assessment, one can not underestimate the vast amount of liquidity lying around trying to find a place to invest. There is far too much liquidity worldwide.
@@michaeloconnor6683 I agree with this. The shift from pensions to everyone being automatically enrolled into 401ks is just dumping untold amount of money into ETFs. A good recession will reverse those flows and it could be a nightmare.
I closed out a 400,000 position in a stock mutual fund last week. I can hardly wait to jump back in May 2025. What is going on is clear - get Biden clear of a financial collapse for 5 weeks and let it all blow up under Trump this Spring.
Exactly. The BLS will all of a sudden start reporting accurate unemployment numbers and sentiment will magically shift to “oh crap, this consumer credit debt is unsustainable” and Trump will be blamed.
Do you believe central planning works so well that the government can control financial crises? Why would you think that? It may all blow up in the next few months, but thinking there is anyone pulling the strings engineering that outcome is ridiculous.
I love the way this guy thinks. In the businesses I've purchased, the worst returned all my money in 3 years, the best returned it in less than a year. Thats how I look at putting money in the market. It better return my money quickly or I'll either look elsewhere or keep my money in cash.
Brother. Love show, but recently you have been asking very long winded question. Worse, they seem more like leading questions where you are giving the advice and your guest is almost pushed to agree with you. Except Lance, he has no issue telling you that you are wrong in your analysis, thank goodness. You bring great guests to the show, please let them respond fully. Forgive the criticism, meant for good as I have learnt greatly from you. Thank you.
Ok guys, give him a break...... So your going to tell me that after this man has put together years of interviews and thousands of hours of content that he is now messing it up!!!!! Please tell me it ain't so.
Thank you Adam and a great guest as usual. Having the date of recording be so close to the date of airing is not easy to do, and of course necessary for the content you provide. Mr. Oakley is a voice or wisdom and reason indeed.
Listening to Ted Oakley makes me feel better about these uncertain & volatile financial times. He is voice of reason amongst the chaos. Such wise advice. Ted is the best.
Fantastic discussion Excellent analysis Ted Thank you Sir Well said!! I always love listening to you an your gests Adam Thank You Gentlemen Thank you both, you are waking up and educating a whole generation
Ted is a class act, great interview. To all the desperate bulls, you should always question your positions and the environment. If you wanna live in an echo chamber, there are plenty of other channels for that. Cramer is always a call away.
Desperate bulls? All I've seen is desperate bears for 3yrs. Bull markets have always worked this way, broke bears screaming on the sidelines for a few years, then they claim glory when a little correction comes. Nobody predicts the major bear markets, not on time at least.
Good interview, Adam! Mr. Oakley helped me understand that it is human nature to regret missing some of the end of a bubble, but you will be happier when the market corrects.
Ted a excellent guest as usual. I watch many financial and economic podcasts. I have to say Adam is one of the best. The reason I would give is that he has no arrogance and not full of himself. You're doing an excellent job Adam, keep on keeping on 😊
SOMETHING TO REMEMBER ABOUT CURRENCIES: Say what you want about the dollar, but if you are faced with buying 12 new locomotives for your railway, do you want that denominated in Brazilian or Turkish money, where they manipulate and print far WORSE than the USA, or do you want the loan denominated in a neutral currency? The BRICS economies are in far worse shape than the dollar, and they shaft each other far worse. The dollar is the cleanest dirty shirt and nothing else exists that can facilitate 14 trillion in daily trade. Embrace the suck. It is what it is. They have the world by the snagels.
The U.S. casino will soon have to call in all it's lenders and as we all know President Trump has vast experience and expertise in bankrupting casinos. 😂😂😂
And in trolling 'certain' people of limited capacity. PolitiFact took a look at all four of Trump’s Chapter 11 bankruptcies and determined that "they were a result of business struggles largely beyond the billionaire-turned-presidential-candidate’s control." "In fact, it can often be said that a Chapter 11 bankruptcy is in the best interests of the business and in no way a reflection of a poorly run company. "
@TheAzmountaineer Of course it's not Trump's fault that his casinos went bankrupt. It was such a tough economy back then and how many Vegas casinos have gone bankrupt over the decades?
Ted is so eloquent, he calmly explains the logical reality of current times. Thoughtful Money and Adam deserve a huge pat on the back for producing so valuable a channel. 😇
Assertion: The current size of the stock market bubble calls for a 50% correction if not more. However, the "authorities" will literally shut down the exchanges before the market declines by more than 15% to avoid wiping out the 1 quadrillion dollars of derivatives at play and melting down the entire financial system. How would Adam's future guests react to this assertion? 🙂
.....50% drops happen over years with weeks of going up again, like 2020 except worse. Stocks drop 3% for a few days in a row then go up 4% then down 2% 3% 3% then up 3%.....that doesn't trigger shutting down the market, though this time around it will trigger alot of fake news to trigger algos to buy
@Adam, first off, thank you for the amazing interviews. I enjoy them thoroughly. And i know you are open minded enough to accept criticism and improve. To that end, think i would like to add to the growing list of listeners annoyed with two aspects of your interviews: 1. Your unnecessarily long questions style, often leading the guest to an answer. And that makes your videos way too long as well. You can be a LOT quicker and to the point wjhile delivering the same point across. 2. No chapters in your videos despite them being REALLY long. It is infinitely better if i can see ehat tooics were discussed and listen to those most interesting to me. Not to compare, but as a suggestion to see how others potentially do it, David Lin, another great interview does a great job at both. Can I please ask you to consider the points above? Rest assured you have a loyal subscriber even if you choose to ignore my suggestions. Thank you, once again.
Could this all be "too big to fail"? I mean, if markets did actual revert to the mean or have a sizable correction, what would that mean for the economy? If that won't be allowed to happen, could this mania be permitted (or rather, made) to go on forever? Maybe that's why we've all be waiting on this recession, seemingly forever?
At 59:13, I have a problem when he lumps together CFAs with other people's backgrounds, and then in the same sentence saying, "could they run a balance sheet - no". That is where you lost me, as in my opinion the vast majority of CFA holders will be able to "run a balance sheet". It is just contradictory, as on one hand the channel is saying get a smart financial advisor, but on the other hand implying that a CFA can't run a balance sheet - come on. The inference is the good advisors are old people because they were around for several market busts, nah not buying that. (taking shots at the CFA, that is not the message I think you want to send). He is basically saying some people have good information and some people have bad information, the "theory of asymmetric information" (maybe just say that).
The wealth effect works in both directions. Who wants to bet whether Jay Powell keeps the SPX/OEX and the NDX on his screen? BTW: I love it when someone says "I don't know". Props to the guest when asked about geopolitics.
I have enormous respect for this man and his generosity in sharing information with what is no doubt a large audience of retail investors. In other words, advice for the non extremely high net worth families. The idea of being smart and careful with money, operating from an individual and principled goal for your investing, rather than chasing the latest fever, is extremely wise. It is not just a black swan event that could send things tumbling down.
Even when Adam referenced back to back 20% plus years. 2 stocks encompass 25% of SP returns and MAG 7 encompass 50% of SP since 2019! Let that sink in. Can you say narrow? Can you say massive crash? Absolutely
Dollar cost average those higher bond yields. Buy some 4%, then 5%, more at 6%, then 7%, why not? Eventually the higher these yields go people in the equities markets are going to take notice and start buying bonds and if you dollar cost averaged the higher yields went (lower price goes) you are going to be able to sell those bonds for a profit then. If not keep dollar cost averaging if those yields keep going higher. You may end up with 20 year bonds at 15-20%. Why not? 20% interest for the next 20 years on your principal wouldn't be bad at all. I'd like to lower my cost basis by cost averaging higher yields by getting higher yield returns. Higher yields going to bring down stocks and that is when equity investors will start to buy bonds. Money got to go somewhere. Bears like to say it's not different this time well neither will the direction money will flow if the stock market starts to crash.
Thanks Adam, Ted is a good interview. My wife is still trading like we are in a bull market. But she has her trading strategy she sticks too. Mostly doing options trading.
On a recent interview maybe this one was the first time I remember hearing someone speak about municipal bonds could you go into more detail on the good and bad I do own some California municipal bond funds in my portfolio One other thing I have not heard anybody talk about is the possible ramifications of deporting 10 million plus renters of both apartments and house could have on real estate values ?
I don't even want to talk about the GFC. That is the exact point in time when America sold its soul and stole from the next 4 generations. But yes you are correct.
Yes, we're in a bubble and bubbles end badly... about 5-10 years after people start saying they are about to end. I think it was Fidelity which at the end of 2013 called for a top in early 2014, five years into a raging bull market off the 667 low. S&P 500 subsequently saw a dip, at around the 1800 range, then resumed its climb to the current ~6000. Valuation has never a good market timing tool. A sensible person would have bailed on the S&P 500 by the time 1994 had rolled around (465). Sensible, but way too early since it got to over 1500 by 2000 before finally peaking.
@@bpb5541 ALot here in NYC. I think we have a million in NYC now but most people seem poor. I live in Queens and lots of people are "rich" on paper due to owning a house they inherited/bought in the 90s but they make like 60K and dress like people you'd associate with West Virginia Maga and complain about $200 expenses:-)
@@bobthebuilderhecanbuildit - Running a string of "uhms and ahs" is not only annoying, it also shows a disorganized thought process. That's not a good attribute for someone who is basically a public speaker. Of course, a mental simpleton would never realize that.
Ted stated we would have a major credit crunch and the markets would crash in 2023. Totally wrong and he has been wrong for all of 2024. Nice man though.
Prudence isn't an ugly strategy in these times. Most everyone and every economist has had it wrong this and last year. If and when the fuse is lit, you'll need a bid on the other side, when there isn't, you'll wish you'd been more prudential.
He didn't predict the infinite bailouts and QE from Treasury and the Fed in 2023. The Biden team has now lost and it sounds like he is again not predicting endless bailouts and QE.
All these guys are just guessing..no one knows what the markets will do in the short term or long term. The markets now are very different than they were 50 or 100 yrs ago. Companies are also not the same. At the end of the day only one thing is certain. Markets are volatile. If u cant handle that then you shouldn't own stocks. You are not going to time the top or bottom so trying is a waste of time. Just stay invested. Or you can just sit scared on the side lines in treasuries like this guy. Why would i pay a financial advisor to just sit in treasuries.
@HanzShaoPing i don't need an advisor for that. I can do that myself lol. If covid couldn't crash the market 40% I don't really see a 40% any time soon. And I have no problem with 20% corrections. I'll just keep buying every week like usual
MV = PQ is now MV = P(-Q + QE) I rewrote eq as(- Q) an offshoring jobs velocity. For QE, add continuous War velocity, Interest on Debt and added Fiscal Stimulus created no high paying jobs. The S&P500 companies use mainly workers from overseas. The jobs they provide are all Chinese distribution centers such as Walmart, Home depot, Amazon types that do not support a GDP growth. Homes and Autos are no longer affordable. Ted comes from a rough upbringing, he was poor and I know where he is coming from. I am taking Ted’s advice. If I was young, then sure the S&P500 and let it ride. But not my age. Adam thanks, great questions as aways and Ted a man of experience and voice of reason.
I read the comments sections and take note how many new “investors” are willing to throw money into the market now because they are afraid of missing out. Very concerning right now.
We've had 2 consecutive years of +20% with many saying during this period that the market is over priced. Surely the only sensible thing to do is $/cost avg in on the way down and $/cost avg out on the way up? Personally i find bubble/crash discourse (even with flawless logic & deep experience) unhelpful. timing markets is a mugs game. my own contrarian/non echo chamber view is that the current market still has legs and one would be silly to cash out entirely right now. But i agree buying in aggresively at this point is def. not smart.
As a trader, you begin to see that what moves all markets is when the MAJORITY is on the wrong side. They are the fuel for the crash or for the panic to the upside. The majority are always fooled by the fundamentals that are fickle. Sometimes the numbers are positive yet the market crashes and the excuse is they were not bullish enough. Simply put: The Majority must Always be Wrong Martin Armstrong
Well said. This is why we trade price action and set ups using good trading plans, with excellent money / risk managment. There is nothing else. Everything else could be false. Price never lies. EVER.
@@alexYT87462 investing is the monthly and weekly charts. If fudementals mattered that much look at TSLA iti s trading at some insane forward P/E and has gone vertical on the monthly weekly charts. Whenever I have seen this in the past it is time to sell not go long more of it. I think MACRO matters long term and folks that know how to read the buisness cycles, warnings, etc are in much better shape. I think those people started to get out of their longs months ago. Might the market go up higher? Of course. But great traders know when a good risk to reward is in play and one is not. In TSLA and NVDA the risk to reaward to go long here is horrible. At least that is what all my set ups tell me. I am actually waiting for one of the 6 types of tops to for and a set up that tell me to short them. Until then I wait.
Examine the agendas that companies support and learn the exact things they support. Just because a stock price is going up does not mean they are ethical. It's important to be able to have a clean conscience.
Ted Oakley the voice of REASON! Thank you Adam.
Ted's wisdom and humility always shine through. Bring him back any time!
Adam and Ted: Two of my favorites. No hype. You strive to be honest. Thank you.
But wrong
This is the “Most Sensible” guest you have in recent weeks.
Does anybody not remember Allen Greenspans statement? “ the market is experiencing irrational exuberance”. Investors were smart until they were not!
Wait until the rugs pulled out 😅
I choose to make money instead of waiting for scared bear's wet dream
Crash or no crash, when everything is pushing ATH, it's time to start trimming some of the fat and increase dry powder. I'm considering diversifying my portfolio of $200k to hedge against downturns but unsure of the best strategy to do so.
Predictions like these often turn out to be wrong. You should consult with an expert to help you diverse your port safely so you don’t get burnt by your emotions
It's better to be prepared. Even if nothing happens, having a diversified portfolio can protect us from other risks. I was going solo without much success until my wife introduced me to an advisor. I've achieved over 80% capital growth this year, excluding dividends. Highly recommend!
*Marissa Lynn Babula is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
Pls how can I reach this expert, I need someone to help me manage my portfolio
*Marissa Lynn Babula* is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
I can’t tell you how many folks in the financial sector that don’t look at the basics. Profit, earnings, math.
They don't need to. Profit, earning, math aren't necessary for crypto markets, why would they need them for stock markets? (I'm being semi-sarcastic here.)
Fundamentals don't matter in trading. All that matters is price movement. Good traders don't care why its moivng they just want it to move. The why can be lied about, cooked..... look at ENRON. That was horrible, unless you were a good trader and then you were printing your own money 😂
@ 100% true. More volatility the better
Very well done & not overly technical.
Thank you Adam. Mr. Oakley's assessments are all the validation I need to remain 90% T-bills and 10% gold...waiting....waiting...waiting to buy back in. It has been difficult watching the bulls these past two years...but preservation is the name of the game in this extraordinary bubble.
You have missed market gone up 50% in the last two year. Why can’t you just ride the trend and when the shit hit the fans, you can get out really quick. Market won’t decline 33% in one day for you to just break even.
I agree with Ted Oakley.
Thanks, Adam. Great guest and podcast.
I’m. Big fan of Ted Oakley. He’s such a knowledgeable, but humble man.
Reminds me of the ending on an EBay bid sometime you get caught up in the process you forget the price 😮
VERY TRUE
BEST (or at least one of the best) interviews on the subject I've ever heard in many, many years. And that last bit: "make sure your kids can stand on their own two feet": kind says it ALL.
Most people should just build an emergency fund, and pay down debt. And then BEFORE increasing cost of living with other debt and commitments (homes, car, toys), build an even bigger emergency fund for those fixed and variable costs.
Simple math:
invest in stocks and maybe you get ~ 7.5% long term return × 75% = 5.625% after tax return with high risk.
Invest in your own debt which say is 6% and you are better off. That 6% pre tax would be (dependent on tax brackets of course) something like 6% after tax ÷ 75% = 8% pre tax equivalent return.
Do the math for yourself.
Of course there are tax sheltered accounts.
There are also people with higher interest rates and those that maxed out tax sheltered accounts, or want to reduce risk of losing money in the near term.
I'm playing the dumbell approach since nobody seems to have a clue when things will crash: pay down debt and dont take on new debt, keep cash pile growing, keep some exposure to higher risk index funds and commodities in case of inflation melt up; live below your 100% means and this will allow you to sleep comfortably under really any scenario
What I find totally disgusting about the stock market bubble and the housing bubble is the role played by the Fed and the Congress over many years. How do you spell “CORRUPTION”?
Well, this is why I don’t participate in political discussions anymore because it’s a waste of breath, they’re all terrible and rooted purely in self interest.
They (central banks and politicians) are either corrupt or incompétent.
@@nickzivsfacts ❤
"GREED"
During his first term the President elect said he would balance the budget.(missed by 7 1/2 trillion). Forgive me if I also don’t believe he will be an agent for peace and prosperity. Thanks to your guest for setting the record straight. Note for the usually brilliant Adam…hope is not a strategy.
I am a client of Oxbow here in Corpus Christi. I met Mr Ted Oakley today, after Courtney Bechtol reviewed everything, These guys are the top of the A list. I could not be happier with my wealth management, we are all set. Thank you Courtney and Ted!
TED IS PURE GOLD. Measured. Sober. Humble. Yet, Capital S Solid. 💯👍🇺🇲☘️⭐
Excellent interview!
45:25 - You could also make the argument that some corporations with large cash piles may choose to divert some or all of that to dispatch the debt that they might otherwise roll over, in order to avoid the higher rates, and this depletion of their cash pile will reduce the amount of share buybacks they can engage in, and share buybacks have been a major support for rich valuations of shares by lowering EPS through what's almost like a kind of accounting gimmick.
My guess would be the strategy for companies will be a mix of: 1) more cost-cutting measures, some of which will include layoffs, and some of which will include reducing capex or renegotiation of contracts (these will hurt the economy more broadly), 2) reduction in profit margins through higher servicing cost for debt that they do choose to roll over at higher rates, 3) reduction in cash by using cash to pay off some debt, thereby reducing cash available for share buybacks, 4) reduction in or outright canceling of dividends to shareholders.
Good content
Thank you Adam for a calm and reasonable interview. Keep it up.
Another great interview from Ted. Always a favourite guest for sure! Thanks to both gentlemen for their time and efforts in bringing us this valuable content.
Thank you very much...
*I really appreciate your clear and simple breakdown on financial pitfalls! I lost so much money on stook market but now making around $18k to $21k every week trading different stocks and cryptos*
You work for 40yrs to have $1M in your retirement, meanwhile some people are putting just $10K into trading from just few months ago and now they are multimillionaires
Most rich people stay rich by spending like the poor and investing without stopping then most poor people stay poor by spending like the rich yet not investing like the rich but impressing them. People prefer to spend money on liabilities, Rather than investing in assets and be very profitable
You are so correct! Save, invest and spend for necessities and a few small luxuries relatives to one's total assets ratio.
Waking up every 14th of each month to $21,000 it’s a blessing to I and my family… Big gratitude to Josh Olfert🙌
Hello how do you make such monthly?? I'm a born Christian and sometimes I feel so down 🤦♀️of myself because of low finance but I still believe in God
Very good interview 👏🏾👏🏾. Have him back 6 months from now.
Thank you Ted and Adam ... so thoughtful
Thanks for the time stamps
You’re welcome 😊
Absolutely NO where to hide in equities when a big correction comes. Seen it since 1970… IF we repeat big corrections, it will beat you up more than you can understand…..until you have a rear view mirror after smoke clears. It’s more than dollars lost, it’s how it affects everyone else….lost hope and bleak outlooks will grind one’s mind and confidence. Years to recover. ……….. Car wreck without emergency services……got the picture?? Good luck.
Good. Maybe then young people will be able to buy houses and start families.
Hurts to not have a plan with a good set of rules that lack emotion
Great job, Adam!!!!!!!!!!
While I agree with Ted and Adam's assessment, one can not underestimate the vast amount of liquidity lying around trying to find a place to invest. There is far too much liquidity worldwide.
nahh -- it's the passive bid driving everything -- once it tries to sell, you'll see there is no liquidity at all in the market.
@@michaeloconnor6683 I agree with this. The shift from pensions to everyone being automatically enrolled into 401ks is just dumping untold amount of money into ETFs. A good recession will reverse those flows and it could be a nightmare.
@@michaeloconnor6683 6.4 trillion in money market funds 🤣
Wow, astute gentleman, thanks
I closed out a 400,000 position in a stock mutual fund last week.
I can hardly wait to jump back in May 2025. What is going on is clear -
get Biden clear of a financial collapse for 5 weeks and let it all blow
up under Trump this Spring.
Exactly. The BLS will all of a sudden start reporting accurate unemployment numbers and sentiment will magically shift to “oh crap, this consumer credit debt is unsustainable” and Trump will be blamed.
Do you believe central planning works so well that the government can control financial crises? Why would you think that? It may all blow up in the next few months, but thinking there is anyone pulling the strings engineering that outcome is ridiculous.
@@Zummbot 100 years of history indicates she's correct
MORONG it aint going to blow up and I bet you buy back in at a HIGHER PRICE.
Dont buy mutual funds. Buy index funds yourself. You can also look at a mutual funds company allocation and buy the stocks they buy. No commissions
I have the utmost respect for Ted 😊
I love the way this guy thinks. In the businesses I've purchased, the worst returned all my money in 3 years, the best returned it in less than a year. Thats how I look at putting money in the market. It better return my money quickly or I'll either look elsewhere or keep my money in cash.
Brother. Love show, but recently you have been asking very long winded question. Worse, they seem more like leading questions where you are giving the advice and your guest is almost pushed to agree with you. Except Lance, he has no issue telling you that you are wrong in your analysis, thank goodness. You bring great guests to the show, please let them respond fully. Forgive the criticism, meant for good as I have learnt greatly from you. Thank you.
Adam is now an expert in his own right. The interviewer is now a STAR!
My thoughts too
Just watch TH-cam on 2x speed.
It’s not just recently, Adam loves to hear himself talk and stutter for over 2 years now.
Ok guys, give him a break...... So your going to tell me that after this man has put together years of interviews and thousands of hours of content that he is now messing it up!!!!! Please tell me it ain't so.
Ted's experience and critical thinking always evident.
Thank you Adam and a great guest as usual. Having the date of recording be so close to the date of airing is not easy to do, and of course necessary for the content you provide. Mr. Oakley is a voice or wisdom and reason indeed.
Listening to Ted Oakley makes me feel better about these uncertain & volatile financial times. He is voice of reason amongst the chaos. Such wise advice. Ted is the best.
Excellent
Fantastic discussion
Excellent analysis Ted
Thank you Sir
Well said!!
I always love listening to you an your gests Adam
Thank You Gentlemen
Thank you both, you are waking up and educating a whole generation
A big reality check
Ted is a class act, great interview.
To all the desperate bulls, you should always question your positions and the environment. If you wanna live in an echo chamber, there are plenty of other channels for that. Cramer is always a call away.
Desperate bulls? All I've seen is desperate bears for 3yrs. Bull markets have always worked this way, broke bears screaming on the sidelines for a few years, then they claim glory when a little correction comes. Nobody predicts the major bear markets, not on time at least.
"Its not me singing, dont get worried" LOL
The voice of experience.
Good interview, Adam! Mr. Oakley helped me understand that it is human nature to regret missing some of the end of a bubble, but you will be happier when the market corrects.
Ted a excellent guest as usual.
I watch many financial and economic podcasts.
I have to say Adam is one of the best. The reason I would give is that he has no arrogance and not full of himself.
You're doing an excellent job Adam, keep on keeping on 😊
Absolutely fantastic interview. Always love your interviews with Ted and i always appreciate a look into what he is thinking. Thank you.
Thank you Adam
SOMETHING TO REMEMBER ABOUT CURRENCIES: Say what you want about the dollar, but if you are faced with buying 12 new locomotives for your railway, do you want that denominated in Brazilian or Turkish money, where they manipulate and print far WORSE than the USA, or do you want the loan denominated in a neutral currency? The BRICS economies are in far worse shape than the dollar, and they shaft each other far worse. The dollar is the cleanest dirty shirt and nothing else exists that can facilitate 14 trillion in daily trade. Embrace the suck. It is what it is. They have the world by the snagels.
The dollar is just the best turd in the toilet. It has lost 40% of its purchasing power in just the last 7 years. But I hear you.
Definitely not the Canadian peso ...
Right on Ted. Thanks for the steadfast and sensible discussion
Thank you, Adam!
This guy is good and talks about strategy and has mature experience. He's been around fir many bear markets and sound advice.
The U.S. casino will soon have to call in all it's lenders and as we all know President Trump has vast experience and expertise in bankrupting casinos. 😂😂😂
And in trolling 'certain' people of limited capacity. PolitiFact took a look at all four of Trump’s Chapter 11 bankruptcies and determined that "they were a result of business struggles largely beyond the billionaire-turned-presidential-candidate’s control." "In fact, it can often be said that a Chapter 11 bankruptcy is in the best interests of the business and in no way a reflection of a poorly run company. "
@TheAzmountaineer Of course it's not Trump's fault that his casinos went bankrupt. It was such a tough economy back then and how many Vegas casinos have gone bankrupt over the decades?
Ted is so eloquent, he calmly explains the logical reality of current times. Thoughtful Money and Adam deserve a huge pat on the back for producing so valuable a channel. 😇
Assertion: The current size of the stock market bubble calls for a 50% correction if not more. However, the "authorities" will literally shut down the exchanges before the market declines by more than 15% to avoid wiping out the 1 quadrillion dollars of derivatives at play and melting down the entire financial system. How would Adam's future guests react to this assertion? 🙂
.....50% drops happen over years with weeks of going up again, like 2020 except worse. Stocks drop 3% for a few days in a row then go up 4% then down 2% 3% 3% then up 3%.....that doesn't trigger shutting down the market, though this time around it will trigger alot of fake news to trigger algos to buy
They can’t shut down the RUT 😅
Thank you for the music.
@Adam, first off, thank you for the amazing interviews. I enjoy them thoroughly. And i know you are open minded enough to accept criticism and improve. To that end, think i would like to add to the growing list of listeners annoyed with two aspects of your interviews:
1. Your unnecessarily long questions style, often leading the guest to an answer. And that makes your videos way too long as well. You can be a LOT quicker and to the point wjhile delivering the same point across.
2. No chapters in your videos despite them being REALLY long. It is infinitely better if i can see ehat tooics were discussed and listen to those most interesting to me.
Not to compare, but as a suggestion to see how others potentially do it, David Lin, another great interview does a great job at both. Can I please ask you to consider the points above? Rest assured you have a loyal subscriber even if you choose to ignore my suggestions. Thank you, once again.
excellent conversation
LIKED!! 😊👍
Detective of money politics is following this very informative content cheers from vk3gfs and 73s from Frank
What would these dinosaurs like Buffett and Ted know?
Just kidding, enjoyed your guest.
Could this all be "too big to fail"? I mean, if markets did actual revert to the mean or have a sizable correction, what would that mean for the economy? If that won't be allowed to happen, could this mania be permitted (or rather, made) to go on forever? Maybe that's why we've all be waiting on this recession, seemingly forever?
I loved hearing Ted’s interview. I would like to buy his book.
What is the name of the book?
His books are free on his website.
Brilliant
Good morning Adam
if your goal is to preserve your wealth, follow Ted. If your goal is to grow your wealth, run!
"Extraordinary Popular Delusions and The Madness of Crowds"...look it up!🎉🎉🎉😂😂😂
Ted is Brilliant.
Adam is quite good, as usual.
At 59:13, I have a problem when he lumps together CFAs with other people's backgrounds, and then in the same sentence saying, "could they run a balance sheet - no". That is where you lost me, as in my opinion the vast majority of CFA holders will be able to "run a balance sheet". It is just contradictory, as on one hand the channel is saying get a smart financial advisor, but on the other hand implying that a CFA can't run a balance sheet - come on. The inference is the good advisors are old people because they were around for several market busts, nah not buying that. (taking shots at the CFA, that is not the message I think you want to send). He is basically saying some people have good information and some people have bad information, the "theory of asymmetric information" (maybe just say that).
The wealth effect works in both directions. Who wants to bet whether Jay Powell keeps the SPX/OEX and the NDX on his screen?
BTW: I love it when someone says "I don't know". Props to the guest when asked about geopolitics.
If you can't tolerate a multiyear year downturn, you best give some serious thought to lightning up on stocks.
I have enormous respect for this man and his generosity in sharing information with what is no doubt a large audience of retail investors. In other words, advice for the non extremely high net worth families. The idea of being smart and careful with money, operating from an individual and principled goal for your investing, rather than chasing the latest fever, is extremely wise. It is not just a black swan event that could send things tumbling down.
GET THOUGHTFUL MONEY'S FREE NEWSLETTER at thoughtfulmoney.substack.com/
Pull up an industrial s chart.
Even when Adam referenced back to back 20% plus years. 2 stocks encompass 25% of SP returns and MAG 7 encompass 50% of SP since 2019! Let that sink in. Can you say narrow? Can you say massive crash? Absolutely
Dollar cost average those higher bond yields. Buy some 4%, then 5%, more at 6%, then 7%, why not? Eventually the higher these yields go people in the equities markets are going to take notice and start buying bonds and if you dollar cost averaged the higher yields went (lower price goes) you are going to be able to sell those bonds for a profit then. If not keep dollar cost averaging if those yields keep going higher. You may end up with 20 year bonds at 15-20%. Why not? 20% interest for the next 20 years on your principal wouldn't be bad at all. I'd like to lower my cost basis by cost averaging higher yields by getting higher yield returns. Higher yields going to bring down stocks and that is when equity investors will start to buy bonds. Money got to go somewhere. Bears like to say it's not different this time well neither will the direction money will flow if the stock market starts to crash.
I am 3 x leveraged short the markets and my 401k is long bonds. 😅
As someone said There are no such things of risky assets only risky prices...
The us "consumer". You are used for a purpose❤❤❤❤❤❤
Thanks Adam, Ted is a good interview. My wife is still trading like we are in a bull market. But she has her trading strategy she sticks too. Mostly doing options trading.
On a recent interview maybe this one was the first time I remember hearing someone speak about municipal bonds could you go into more detail on the good and bad
I do own some California municipal bond funds in my portfolio
One other thing I have not heard anybody talk about is the possible ramifications of deporting 10 million plus renters of both apartments and house could have on real estate values ?
YAAAA BOI.
During the GFC, the Fed was slashing rates, while CPI rose through 1st 1/2 of 08, no?
I don't even want to talk about the GFC. That is the exact point in time when America sold its soul and stole from the next 4 generations. But yes you are correct.
Was looking for the music playlist link.
Stack cash and wait even for years keep stacking cash
Yes there are tons of young money advisors, they're sweet but not wise enough. We must listen to the more experienced & worldly
Yes, we're in a bubble and bubbles end badly... about 5-10 years after people start saying they are about to end. I think it was Fidelity which at the end of 2013 called for a top in early 2014, five years into a raging bull market off the 667 low. S&P 500 subsequently saw a dip, at around the 1800 range, then resumed its climb to the current ~6000.
Valuation has never a good market timing tool. A sensible person would have bailed on the S&P 500 by the time 1994 had rolled around (465). Sensible, but way too early since it got to over 1500 by 2000 before finally peaking.
I would trust this guy with my money (if i had it lol)
I wonder how many high net worth individuals are only high net worth because of exaggerated market multiples?
Agreed. There is alot of fake wealth out there right now.
Millions.
@@bpb5541 ALot here in NYC. I think we have a million in NYC now but most people seem poor. I live in Queens and lots of people are "rich" on paper due to owning a house they inherited/bought in the 90s but they make like 60K and dress like people you'd associate with West Virginia Maga and complain about $200 expenses:-)
Uhm... ah... uhm, uhm, uhm... ah, uhm, uhm... ah, uhm, uhm, uhm...
Drop the uhms and the ahs, Adam.
Get a hobby that isn't commenting something dumb 3 times
@@bobthebuilderhecanbuildit - Running a string of "uhms and ahs" is not only annoying, it also shows a disorganized thought process. That's not a good attribute for someone who is basically a public speaker. Of course, a mental simpleton would never realize that.
Ted stated we would have a major credit crunch and the markets would crash in 2023. Totally wrong and he has been wrong for all of 2024. Nice man though.
Prudence isn't an ugly strategy in these times. Most everyone and every economist has had it wrong this and last year. If and when the fuse is lit, you'll need a bid on the other side, when there isn't, you'll wish you'd been more prudential.
I'd be willing to bet very my life that over the span of two decades he will otuperform any strategy you come up with.
He is a risk manager, not a speculator. If you're into gambling then he's not for you but if you're into capital preservation he's the right guy
He didn't predict the infinite bailouts and QE from Treasury and the Fed in 2023. The Biden team has now lost and it sounds like he is again not predicting endless bailouts and QE.
@@Dave-cf4xq Well that's it, in a nutshell.
Lots of companies with high pe. No dividends no earnings a high when the bubble bursts it will be bad
All these guys are just guessing..no one knows what the markets will do in the short term or long term. The markets now are very different than they were 50 or 100 yrs ago. Companies are also not the same.
At the end of the day only one thing is certain. Markets are volatile. If u cant handle that then you shouldn't own stocks.
You are not going to time the top or bottom so trying is a waste of time. Just stay invested.
Or you can just sit scared on the side lines in treasuries like this guy.
Why would i pay a financial advisor to just sit in treasuries.
Why would you pay a financial advisor to sit in treasuries, maybe this year you will find out, maybe not.
@HanzShaoPing i don't need an advisor for that. I can do that myself lol. If covid couldn't crash the market 40% I don't really see a 40% any time soon. And I have no problem with 20% corrections. I'll just keep buying every week like usual
The S&P 500 has returned about 9% over the past 90 years, which isn't bad at all. Over a lifetime of investing that is huge.
People hear what they want to hear. IMHO, Ted is genuine, wise and experienced. I don't want a gunslinger to watch my hard earned Nest Egg.
Can it be said that "healthy P/E ratio" should be following M2 money supply? I would love to see a chart historical spx average p/e vs M2
Make one!
MV = PQ is now MV = P(-Q + QE)
I rewrote eq as(- Q) an offshoring jobs velocity. For QE, add continuous War velocity, Interest on Debt and added Fiscal Stimulus created no high paying jobs. The S&P500 companies use mainly workers from overseas. The jobs they provide are all Chinese distribution centers such as Walmart, Home depot, Amazon types that do not support a GDP growth. Homes and Autos are no longer affordable. Ted comes from a rough upbringing, he was poor and I know where he is coming from. I am taking Ted’s advice. If I was young, then sure the S&P500 and let it ride. But not my age. Adam thanks, great questions as aways and Ted a man of experience and voice of reason.
There’s nothing but good times and noodle salad ahead 🤠
I read the comments sections and take note how many new “investors” are willing to throw money into the market now because they are afraid of missing out. Very concerning right now.
We've had 2 consecutive years of +20% with many saying during this period that the market is over priced. Surely the only sensible thing to do is $/cost avg in on the way down and $/cost avg out on the way up? Personally i find bubble/crash discourse (even with flawless logic & deep experience) unhelpful. timing markets is a mugs game. my own contrarian/non echo chamber view is that the current market still has legs and one would be silly to cash out entirely right now. But i agree buying in aggresively at this point is def. not smart.
As a trader, you begin to see that what moves all markets is when the MAJORITY is on the wrong side. They are the fuel for the crash or for the panic to the upside. The majority are
always fooled by the fundamentals that are fickle. Sometimes the numbers are positive yet the market crashes
and the excuse is they were not bullish enough. Simply put:
The Majority must Always be Wrong
Martin Armstrong
Well said. This is why we trade price action and set ups using good trading plans, with excellent money / risk managment. There is nothing else. Everything else could be false. Price never lies. EVER.
Agree. As a trader price action is everything. As a long time horizon investor, the fundamentals do howver matter alot. Horses for courses i guess.
@@alexYT87462 investing is the monthly and weekly charts. If fudementals mattered that much look at TSLA iti s trading at some insane forward P/E and has gone vertical on the monthly weekly charts. Whenever I have seen this in the past it is time to sell not go long more of it. I think MACRO matters long term and folks that know how to read the buisness cycles, warnings, etc are in much better shape. I think those people started to get out of their longs months ago. Might the market go up higher? Of course. But great traders know when a good risk to reward is in play and one is not. In TSLA and NVDA the risk to reaward to go long here is horrible. At least that is what all my set ups tell me. I am actually waiting for one of the 6 types of tops to for and a set up that tell me to short them. Until then I wait.
Examine the agendas that companies support and learn the exact things they support. Just because a stock price is going up does not mean they are ethical. It's important to be able to have a clean conscience.