The China Brief: Will Property Prices Rebound?

On Chinese social media, debate is heating up over whether property prices will rebound after authorities eased homebuying rules.
Bloomberg's China correspondent Minmin Low looks at how that move is being discussed online.
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[@ArabicReja973]

Chinese 🇨🇳 property sector, which accounts for 30% of GDP, is crashing.
- Exports and imports, accounting for 37% GDP, are down.
- Foreign investment (FDI) is falling over 90%, lowest in 3 decades.
- Foreign visitors are down 96% compared to the pre-pandemic level in 2019.
- Consumer prices are experiencing deflation.
- Youth unemployment hits over 21%, a record.
- Its fast-shrinking workforce is 10 years older than neighboring countries.
*Still, China keeps reporting outrageous GDP numbers.* Lol
Where does the growth come from?

[@user-yy9hk9od9u]

No it won't. It's a crash.

[@lastChang]

The liquidity of Evergrande was the beginning, not the end, of the Great Fall of 🇨🇳China.
Now, this is just a continuation of that.

[@realharo]

I don't see how local governments buying up the inventory would bring the prices up. Assuming they don't just leave it empty *on purpose* (which would be downright evil), if people are going to be living there, those people are then out of the buyer/renter demand pool elsewhere. As long as that supply exists and is being used, it doesn't matter that much who owns it.

[@henrytep8884]

I guess they are downright evil

[@HKim0072]

You have to separate out "end use" vs "ownership". Many of these properties were always empty.
They are trying to thread the needle and trick people into speculating again. The funny part is the rental price of the same condo was always at least half the price of a mortgage. Sometimes even more of a discount. It was always wacked out. No one in the western world would buy any property if the cash flow wasn't positive or at least neutral ie rent covers mortgage payments. It's a dumb bet.
(It's a silly plan though. They are trying for a slow bleed rather than a crash.)

[@pettypractice7872]

Chinese gov are not trying to bring housing prices up, this has been clear for years now. What they are looking for is a soft landing, and this latest public sector purchase of properties is only to provide necessary cash inflows to struggling property developers so that they can complete the half-finished apartments and make interest payments, as well as saving them from taking on even more debt and worsening the systemic banking issue. If the Chinese gov actually wants prices to go up, believe me it would have happened some time ago.

[@liewkinglim]

Ya. Chinese economy is collapsing and it has been for last 20 years. 😂😂😂

[@michaelliu7373]

Can you guys show the original Chinese social media posts along with the translated scripts, so bilinguals like me can help you verify your translation? 😉

[@HKim0072]

There is no worst scenario. Deflation in discretionary goods. And, inflation in necessities. All while incomes and asset prices are falling.
A US style Great Depression would be better (and that was horrible). At least the bottom would come quicker and establish a base.

[@greaterbayareahero1401]

Go across the grain when prices are low it’s about time to buy in. 👍🤓 The US even has a sarcastic front by putting in an anchor called Minmin Low. Where is Minmin High?🤪

[@TeeHee-vo1bn]

Overcapacity is a Chinese characteristic. It's population is a clear sign.

[@jjbully]

it wont rebound, it will stabilize

[@Bebraveonce]

Everyone in the world wants Chinese 50 year bonds

[@amunra5330]

The west, always getting China wrong 😂