I feel like almost every game of mario party can be summed up as "Someone needs to stop Apollo" even in the games where Apollo is unable to do anything for 20 turns
Apollo is a good player because he understands that the game is about leverage. The more things you do in the game, the more likely you are to profit from it ultimately. If you're able to play it wide, you have more avenues for success. To defeat him, you don't play the game fairly: you play to screw him over while being mindful of the strengths of the other players. And because everyone knows he wins a lot, if you don't screw them over too hard in the process, they'll side with you. I feel like if Dan was to have a rematch and wanted to go full Big Brother, he'd do this. But Dan is an honorable man with his friends...and therefore Chiblee has the chance to ascend to godhood in his stead.
I think my favorite thing about them having basically "solved" most of Mario Party is them just making up weird rules for their own style of gameplay. This is the very thing you learn in gamedesign classes, game vs play and they are such a perfect example of it
For those interested in the chance time maths: Apollo's way: chance of not rolling your target first (3/4) x chance of hitting your target second (1/3) = 1/4 Other way: chance of hitting your target first= 1/4 (considering you don't care who receives the star) Therefore either method is equally good
@GNGRBREDRye hold up, unless I'm missing something the decimal isn't more accurate since we can't do 1/3 perfectly in decimal It's 33.3repeating so instead of 24.75 it's 24.9repeating If we can represent the fractions as a decimal perfectly then we can use decimals instead but in this case I don't think you can do that, especially without the repeating .3
They dunk on Ryan so hard all the time when they should be going after Apollo. It's good cinema but I'd be going just as crazy as him if I was in his place lol
apollo's chance time logic works despite not being monty hall. because the second wheel spins slower, a skilled player could roll a non-yoshi character much higher than 3/4 of the time, which brings the player to the 1/3. An easier 3/4 and then a random 1/3 is probably better for the average player than a (3x more difficult) 1/4.
The funny thing about the chance time math at the start is, assuming only one player has any stars and exactly one star, and the player who landed on chance time hits the star left option, nothing happens unless the player with exactly one star is on the right. Chance of that occurring with right block first is 1/4=25%. Chance of that occurring with left block first is 3/4*1/3 (i.e Apollo isn’t hit left and is hit right) is 25%.
6:25 Been a while since I was in math class, so this might be wrong, but I'm pretty sure the odds even out, either way. If you hit the "giving" side first, it's a 1/4 chance of landing on any given player, 25%. If you hit the "receiving" side first, you have a 3/4 chance of not hitting the person you want to "give," 75%, followed by a 1/3 or 33.33% chance of hitting your intended "giver" on the other side. 33% of 75% is 25%, so you have roughly a 25% chance of getting your intended "giver" either way.
I think the only factor here is speed of the die. You can clearly hit the first die with your desired result pretty reliably, which is perfect for the middle. Then the second one is faster, but you can also time it, so in my opinion it makes the most sense to do the giver second for a good shot at what I want. Then the third is just kind of a crapshoot. If all spins were the same speed you would be correct, but the Chance Time Gambit is complex.
Here's the chance time math. If you want Apollo on the right and there are 4 people. If you pick the right first it's a 1/4 chance you get Apollo, easy enough. If you pick left first, then theres a 3/4 chance you don't pick Apollo on the left then 1/3 chance you pick him on the right. 3/4 * 1/3 = 3*1/4*3 =3/12=1/4. So Ryan is correct that the odds are the same if we consider this a completely random event.
Dumbdog is just straight up wrong. Chance time isn't random chance, the slots are ordered. Given your dynamic vision, short term memory, and timing is up to snuff you can guarantee your hits. So no, it isn't a 1/4 and 1/3 chance. It's like saying someone playing Rock, Paper, Scissors and always throwing rock will have a 1/3 chance of winning.
a bowl of cereal, with milk, can be well over 600 calories. An everything bagel with cream cheese is around 450. I'm not surprised that most of them were so off on their calorie estimates since unless you pay attention/track your calories it can be very easy to underestimate them.
The math for the star block thing is the exact same no matter which you choose first If you go receiver first, you need to win 3/4 and then a 1/3. 3/4 times 1/3 is 1/4 If you go sender first, it's just a straight 1/4
chance time odds: 1/4 chance for apollo to be picked on the first chance 3/4 chance for apollo not to be picked, then 1/3 chance for apollo to be picked on the next roll 3/4*1/3=3/12 or 1/4 nl was right and both have the same odds
@ the odds aren’t 33.33%, the 3s go on infinitely which means 1/3 is more accurate for the math because 33.33% is only an approximation of the actual odds, so both have the exact same probability
Do I misunderstand chance time? Is it purely random, with no element of skill at all? Does timing your jumps do nothing? Because unless that's true The numbers dont come out to 1/4, 1/3, 3/4 etc. They'd be higher if there is an element of skill.
i knew exactly what the video was going to be from the moment you asked for permission for the thumbnail
you made a masterpiece.
one of the best people to follow the fauna to egg pipeline for sure
Yooo it’s the guy that makes the awesome fauna and nl art (and smol black cats)
My goat making my oshis fleshtuber art
Easily my top 3 thumbnails of all time. Well done good sir.
As they say... "Only a fool would try to deceive a dog"
As they say... bye
@@boyo7918 according to my mathematical calculations, you're at +2
It's incredible how Mario Party is able to make every person who plays it develop a temporary persecution complex.
Covering the star and coin count during the flash forward at the beginning is such a smart touch
I feel like almost every game of mario party can be summed up as "Someone needs to stop Apollo" even in the games where Apollo is unable to do anything for 20 turns
And nobody can effectively stop him b/c they either don't factor in bonus stars or they're at each other's throats too much to care.
@@SnorlaxsnaxxOr God a.k.a Bowser hands him the win.
combination of NL always fumbling last second when it matters most, Kory's bad luck and Malf never seeing more than 5 minutes ahead
Dread it. Run from it. Apollo's win arrives all the same. And now it's here... or should I say: He is.
@@FuriousFear HE IS ALREADY HERE
Ryan's biggest mistake was counter teaming with malf, you never team with malf because no matter what you do he'll try to ruin you
Malf teamed with Ryan and he went along with it
We're NL fans, of course we are perplexed by Malf just giving the game to Apollo then blaming everyone else when he wins
Huey Emmerich behavior
Malf thinks he’s crashing out, but he’s got me changing my name to Crash Bandicoot.
and then he hits you with the "are you guys happy now?"
NL's soul is slowly withering and will one day collapse under the weight of Chance Time's decisions
Chance "Time Eater" Time
this is the most insane intro to anything northernlion related i have ever seen
Cinema
Mario Party unleashes the beast
Binema
i think the food illness intro was better but its debatable
Every time man, they just give Apollo the keys to the kingdom
It’s truly a Greek tragedy. Their every attempt to alter fate only leads to what the prophecy foretold.
Apparently the only way to win is by ganging up on him, but you become the villain in the process somehow, especially if Malf’s on your side.
Apollo is a good player because he understands that the game is about leverage. The more things you do in the game, the more likely you are to profit from it ultimately. If you're able to play it wide, you have more avenues for success. To defeat him, you don't play the game fairly: you play to screw him over while being mindful of the strengths of the other players. And because everyone knows he wins a lot, if you don't screw them over too hard in the process, they'll side with you. I feel like if Dan was to have a rematch and wanted to go full Big Brother, he'd do this. But Dan is an honorable man with his friends...and therefore Chiblee has the chance to ascend to godhood in his stead.
I think my favorite thing about them having basically "solved" most of Mario Party is them just making up weird rules for their own style of gameplay.
This is the very thing you learn in gamedesign classes, game vs play and they are such a perfect example of it
ur so right bert
Nobody at nintendo could have predicted big donut
@@rmiah the big donut's dilemma should replace the prisoner's dilemma in philosophy fr
Every video of them playing Mario Party feels like I'm watching an episode of Succession
apollo actually had the full hero's journey
Despite being the biggest villain in Mario Party 😅😅
there have never been more crabs in a bucket
For those interested in the chance time maths:
Apollo's way: chance of not rolling your target first (3/4) x chance of hitting your target second (1/3) = 1/4
Other way: chance of hitting your target first= 1/4 (considering you don't care who receives the star)
Therefore either method is equally good
thank you so much, based and not monty hall pilled
So it’s a 50/50
lol just left this same comment. Yay statistics
@@GNGRBREDRye rounding error
@GNGRBREDRye hold up, unless I'm missing something the decimal isn't more accurate since we can't do 1/3 perfectly in decimal
It's 33.3repeating so instead of 24.75 it's 24.9repeating
If we can represent the fractions as a decimal perfectly then we can use decimals instead but in this case I don't think you can do that, especially without the repeating .3
+2 to the chatter who posted "I did it byyyyyyyyy waaaaaaaaaay"
frank sinatra when he has a really bad cold
MALF handing the game to Apollo right at the end after giving him so many stars during the game is just *chef's kiss*
malf move 29 has me crashing out as hard as nl
just obsessed with losing
guys you will not believe who won this one
I know people hate on malf but he does add the element of chaos to these games that make it just so hilarious
I refuse to hate the scorpion for his nature
I absolutely love MALF, I’ve said it before when he’s so fucking mad, it’s the funniest thing ever.
@@natkin6595 Lol. Lmao.
@@natkin6595 i can only be mad at the frog for his stupidity
I think people just think he's more serious than he actually is, he's chillin. I'll always be a diehard malf apologist
There is nothing more entertaining than watching well-adjusted grown men get overly heated at a children's game.
Tchaikovsky 4th symphony at the beginning is a fire choice Librarian 🔥🔥🔥
So much cinema I thought they were playing Cine2Nerdle
-2 :(
+2
@@pkyy9269when i have to -2 tony hawk
The light in his eyes.... it's gone.
Librarian, intros have had me edging on the seat. Thank you
the Malf fweep play is insane
48:50 the following few minutes is some of the hardest laughing I’ve ever done holy cinema
i appreciate the blur on the star count during the intro. really builds up the suspense
Librarian low-key has fire stroke game. 🔥🔥
Read this five times.
They dunk on Ryan so hard all the time when they should be going after Apollo. It's good cinema but I'd be going just as crazy as him if I was in his place lol
"I hope you`re happy _____" - MALF
The mario party arc will go down in history
I've watched Ryan for ten years, the shows for 8, and I don't think I've EVER heard him this mad.
fans of the 25th letter of the English alphabet will love this episode
To the surprise of ABSOLUTELY nobody.
Someone please get Apollo and Brent to play against eachother, not even kidding
i love your choice to blur the positions during the intro, made the experience so much better
Malf has an IQ of 3
The thumbnail alone says this is going to go absolutely INSANE
Apollo still winning after being in last for the whole game 🚬🐤
Crazy how Apollo didn't even need to do anything and he still caused them to fight each other
northernlion mario party librarian edits bring me a new purpose in life
waiting to get my gallbladder removed and this edit will get me through the pain
8:17 I can’t believe they didn’t consider the cinema coefficient
The screams scare me librarian
apollo's chance time logic works despite not being monty hall. because the second wheel spins slower, a skilled player could roll a non-yoshi character much higher than 3/4 of the time, which brings the player to the 1/3. An easier 3/4 and then a random 1/3 is probably better for the average player than a (3x more difficult) 1/4.
I love the nlss mario party, cause they all just go insane if the games longer than 15 turns
I fucking love Mario party with these guys
Chance time has been an unattended gun since they started playing, it rules
36:20 someone said "TOAD POSTING" sent me
this was my first time watching the stream and i was crying laughing near the end
the Cinemler 🥤
NL is... "The Chancellor"
mario party is my favorite content in ages and i could watch them play it for forever. i just wish dan played with em more hes so good
Malf went full Charlie from Always Sunny in this one
The funny thing about the chance time math at the start is, assuming only one player has any stars and exactly one star, and the player who landed on chance time hits the star left option, nothing happens unless the player with exactly one star is on the right. Chance of that occurring with right block first is 1/4=25%. Chance of that occurring with left block first is 3/4*1/3 (i.e Apollo isn’t hit left and is hit right) is 25%.
36:02 As soon as this Chance Time started I knew the universe would only allow 1 result.
time to settle in for cinema on the train
put apollo into the smash bros home run derby the way he sandbags
6:25
Been a while since I was in math class, so this might be wrong, but I'm pretty sure the odds even out, either way. If you hit the "giving" side first, it's a 1/4 chance of landing on any given player, 25%. If you hit the "receiving" side first, you have a 3/4 chance of not hitting the person you want to "give," 75%, followed by a 1/3 or 33.33% chance of hitting your intended "giver" on the other side. 33% of 75% is 25%, so you have roughly a 25% chance of getting your intended "giver" either way.
from the opinion of a guy watching this during a maths lecture ur right
You beat me to it., yeah they even out just like you described.
I think the only factor here is speed of the die. You can clearly hit the first die with your desired result pretty reliably, which is perfect for the middle. Then the second one is faster, but you can also time it, so in my opinion it makes the most sense to do the giver second for a good shot at what I want. Then the third is just kind of a crapshoot. If all spins were the same speed you would be correct, but the Chance Time Gambit is complex.
@@DemonLordSparda yeah that's true
Arguing about the chance time math only for the end result to bear out exactly as apollo wanted was PEAK CINEMA
I want to see Mario Party but all of the people playing genuinely hate each other's guts.
The super cut with classical music is a great preview of what you're gonna get. 👍🏻 Love it
The timeline remains uninterrupted
+2 to Ikelogic at 5:50
Absolutely transcendent thumbnail
"There's not a gun there" but there's a Snifit and a Snifit is a gun
your most cinema opening yet librarian
i can watch them play hot cross blocks all day holy cinema
In the closing days of 2024, The Librarian has filed the finest work of the year.
I wish this game had Bowser’s Big Blast in it, the funniest Mario Party minigame.
I'm crying from the intro 😂
this rendition of angel is the centerfold is my fav of the nlss karaokes
The cinema coefficient had me dying 😂
Here's the chance time math. If you want Apollo on the right and there are 4 people.
If you pick the right first it's a 1/4 chance you get Apollo, easy enough.
If you pick left first, then theres a 3/4 chance you don't pick Apollo on the left then 1/3 chance you pick him on the right. 3/4 * 1/3 = 3*1/4*3 =3/12=1/4. So Ryan is correct that the odds are the same if we consider this a completely random event.
a masterpiece, thank you to the talent and the editor man
Dumbdog is just straight up wrong. Chance time isn't random chance, the slots are ordered. Given your dynamic vision, short term memory, and timing is up to snuff you can guarantee your hits. So no, it isn't a 1/4 and 1/3 chance.
It's like saying someone playing Rock, Paper, Scissors and always throwing rock will have a 1/3 chance of winning.
my favorite bit is when Ryan pretends he doesnt know how to play the game
The best 30 turner so far, diabolical aura on this one
all these other mfs don't understand the expected value calculation of chancetime
a bowl of cereal, with milk, can be well over 600 calories. An everything bagel with cream cheese is around 450. I'm not surprised that most of them were so off on their calorie estimates since unless you pay attention/track your calories it can be very easy to underestimate them.
Librarian you have outdone yourself with the thumbnail of this video
apollo's bayesian probababbleity theorem is giving me brain damage
me seeing fuzzydice type in all caps, overcome by emotion, sorrow and longing for a time long past
This will go down as one of the mario party games of all time.
This intro is insane
The math for the star block thing is the exact same no matter which you choose first
If you go receiver first, you need to win 3/4 and then a 1/3. 3/4 times 1/3 is 1/4
If you go sender first, it's just a straight 1/4
2:40
Always Sunny theme
I haven’t watched the edit all the way through yet but I watched the vod and I really hope NL’s cam obscuring the score during waluigi is in here
Ty librarian for the anti spoiler blur at the intro
Anyone got the clip that the thumbnail is based on? Sensational btw
I liked the statistics student bit. I laughed
Insane Dr. Stone reference: WHY! WHY! WHY!
i think i know who NL reminds me in his brown jacket. dan hentschel in the "my students are all morons" fit
Apollo is...inevitable.
THAT INTRO IS CINEMA
chance time odds:
1/4 chance for apollo to be picked on the first chance
3/4 chance for apollo not to be picked, then 1/3 chance for apollo to be picked on the next roll
3/4*1/3=3/12 or 1/4
nl was right and both have the same odds
But did you factor in the cinema coefficient
@ the odds aren’t 33.33%, the 3s go on infinitely which means 1/3 is more accurate for the math because 33.33% is only an approximation of the actual odds, so both have the exact same probability
@@GNGRBREDRyehow the fuck can decimals give different result than fractions, you are either insane or don't understand rounding
@@wwefan4545r you're right
Do I misunderstand chance time? Is it purely random, with no element of skill at all? Does timing your jumps do nothing? Because unless that's true The numbers dont come out to 1/4, 1/3, 3/4 etc. They'd be higher if there is an element of skill.
is nl singing with apollo in that outro or does the other person just happen to have a very similar voice?
Yeah that’s Apollo, NL calls him Austin at the start which was his name before he changed it
Hooooooooly thumbnail
the crashout is just when not if at this point