Why The U.S. Economy May Have A ‘Delayed’ Recession: Gary Shilling
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 15 พ.ค. 2024
- The U.S. economy may still face a “delayed” recession, says financial analyst Gary Shilling. “We’ve had more strength in employment than probably is commensurate with the state of business,” Shilling told CNBC. In this episode of “The Bottom Line,” Shilling talks about what may be next for the economy - from key indicators and AI to globalization and the Presidential Election.
Chapters:
0:28 Investor sentiment
1:37 Recession risks
3:25 Labor market outlook
5:42 Presidential election vs. economy
6:53 Future of globalization
7:51 Investment strategy
8:54 AI disruption
10:08 Ongoing wars vs. global business
Script and Edit by: Andrea Miller
Production and Camera by: Charlotte Morabito
Additional Camera by: Jordan Smith
Supervising Producer: Lindsey Jacobson
Additional Footage: Getty Images
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#CNBC
Why The U.S. Economy May Have A ‘Delayed’ Recession: Gary Shilling
The normal state of the U.S. economy is actually very bad. Because of this it goes into convulsive spasms fighting to grow any way it can out of desperation. Tricks, gimmicks, rule changes try to stimulate the economy and prevent it from falling but they only bring temporary relief to people since, when you factor in inflation we are declining.
People believe their currency has the worth it does because they have no other option. Even in a hyperinflationary environment, individuals must continue to use their hyperinflationary currency since they likely have minimal access to other currencies or gold/silver coins.
Inflation is gradually going to become part of us and due to that fact any money you keep in cash or in a low-interest account declines in value each year. Investing is the only way to make your money grow and unless you have an exceptionally high income, investing is the only way most people will ever have enough money to retire.
@@emmaarmandoI've tried investing in the stock market several times but always got discouraged by fluctuations of stock value. I would be happy if you could advise me based on how you went about yours, as I am ready to go the passive income path.!!
"Gertrude Margaret Quinto" is the licensed advisor I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment
I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an email shortly.
Recessions are part of the economic cycle, all you can do is make sure you're prepared and plan accordingly. I graduated into a recession (2009). My 1st job after college was aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today I'm a VP at a global company, own 3 rental properties, invest in stocks and biz, built my own business, and have my net worth increase by $500k in the last 4 years.
Let's face it... buying more stocks & index funds during stock market corrections and bear markets is scary. Which makes it really hard to do for most people like me. I have 260k i want to transfer into an s&s is a but its hard to bite the bullet and do it.
You need a Financial Advisor my friend so you don't get ripped off in the market. They provide personalized advice to individuals based on their risk appetite, placing them among the best of the best. There are bad ones, but some with good track records can be very good.
I know I've wanted to start investing for a few months, but just haven't had the courage to start because the market has been down for most of this year. Please how can I reckon with such skills and what are his services like?
Linda Aretha Reeves is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
out of curiosity i looked Linda up and she seems so proficient,i hope she'd be able to help me attain financial freedom... thanks for sharing
Given worries over recession and potential interest rate hikes, with my $600,000 stock portfolio down 25%, how can I hedge it to potentially profit?
Look for stocks that have paid steady, increasing dividends for years (or decades), and have not cut their dividends even during recessions. Alternatively speaking to a certified market strategist can help with pointers on equities to acquire
Yeah, financial advisors could make a lot of difference, particularly in a market such as this. Stocks are pretty unstable at the moment, but if you do the right math, and with a good advisor, you could make really great profits. That's the best protection against recession.
This sounds great. Is there a way I could connect with any advisor whom you think is very good? I'll appreciate.
*Sharon Lynne Hart* is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
Thanks for sharing, I just looked her up on the web and I would say she really has an impressive background in investing. I will write her an e-mail shortly.
On a brighter note, every recession comes with an equal chance in the fin-mrkt if you're early informed and equipped, I've read folks amass up to 7 figures during these times, and even pull it off easily in a favorable economy. Truthfully, I’d need guide please for a boomer like me to attain such amount for retirement, we definitely need to benefit from this situation somehow.
stocks are pretty volatile now, but if you do the right math, you should be just fine, where as you can save yourself the hassle as well time by seeking professional guidance
Well agreed, investing is plain sailing if you have good conviction indeed. I remember early 2020 during the lockdown, got laid off and needed to stay afloat, hence I researched for advisors and immediately found someone remarkable. As of today, my reserve of $500k has yielded into a comfortable 7-figure which we intend reallocating into gold, recalling the 1929 crash.
I see no other way to maneuver steady profit and steer off losses in this current market except by advisory management, mind if I look up the person guiding you please? I'm in dire need of portfolio reallocation ?
Certainly, there are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’COLLEEN ROSE MCCAFFERY” for about five years now, and her performance has been consistently impressive.She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
Thank you for this tip. It was easy to find your coach. Did my due diligence on her before scheduling a phone call with her. She seems proficient considering her resume.
I was advised to diversify my portfolio among several assets such as stocks and bonds since this can protect my portfolio for retirement. I'm seeking to invest $200K across markets but don't know where to start.
Look for stocks that have paid steady, increasing dividends for years (or decades), and have not cut their dividends even during recessions. Alternatively speaking to a certified market strategist can help with pointers on equities to acquire
True. Having the right financial planner is invaluable. My portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 90% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, though this could take till Q3 2024.
impressive gains! how can I get your advisor please, if you dont mind me asking? I could really use a help as of now
Laila artine kassardjian' is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment
Thank you for this Pointer. It was easy to find your handler, She seems very proficient and flexible. I booked a call session with her.
It is a government inspired crisis this time. The Treasury have to sell Bonds to cover the trade imbalance and the government spending imbalance. In order to sell them they have to raise interest rates and the old long-term, low risk, low interest, AAA investments (including Treasury Bonds), held by the banks (often due to government regulatory policy), become next to worthless. The next milestone is the 15th when the government issue a new batch of Bonds.
This seems like the worst period.Even the markets are very unpredictable.started investing recently when the market prices were a bit high,today i am more than 60% down
TRUMP2024
Given the prevailing market conditions and the potential risks associated with the current economy, I would recommend refraining from investing in stocks for now. Instead, it would be prudent to consider retaining a portion of your assets in gold. Alternatively, seeking advice from a financial advisor could provide valuable guidance in this matter.
Biden thanks for coming
I think this is something I should do, but I've been stalling for a long time now. I don't really know which firm to work with; I feel they are all the same.
Great video, I have a quick question. I am an aspiring trader, I am looking study some traders and earn off their expertise rather than investing myself and lose money emotionally. Whats your take on copy trading? Do people really make money? Just looking for some reassurance.
Thank you!
Focus on long term investments in property, stocks, and bonds. Avoid copying, daytrading and 'chart astrology'. Diversify across different geographies, industries, and value chain stages - to reduce your risk. You can do this with ETFs, or by selecting different stocks yourself. This is the best way to invest for more than 90% of people
proper research, good analysis and luck is what you need to make profit in this constant market decline
Even with the right technique and assets some investors would still make more than others, as an investor, you should’ve known that by now, nothing beats experience and that’s final, personally I had to reach out to a market analyst for guidance which is how I was able to grow my account close to a million, withdraw my profit right before the correction and now I’m buying again.
It is essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable
1. Limit your spending/cut off retail therapy
2.Put the extra cash towards investing in high yielding or steady investment.
How can I participate in this? I sincerely aspire to establish a secure financial future and am eager to participate. Who is the driving force behind your success?
I foresee a recession lasting 2-3 years, and if inflation continues to surge, the Federal Reserve will likely raise interest rates soon. Inflation is causing various issues worldwide, such as food shortages, scarcities of diesel and heating fuel, and significant spikes in housing prices, leading to a potential financial market crash. This global downturn could have long-lasting repercussions. Given the current inflation rate of approximately 9%, my main worry is how to optimize my savings and retirement fund, which has remained stagnant at around $300,000, yielding almost no gains for quite some time.
Numerous opportunities exist to achieve substantial profits at present, but executing high-volume and nearly flawless trades requires the expertise of real-time professionals with an ISDA Agreement. This agreement allows investors to participate in sophisticated trades, exclusive to seasoned individuals, and unavailable to amateurs. Attempting to be a high-stakes trader without an ISDA is akin to trying to win the Indy 500 riding a llama.
I'm sure the idea of an invstment-Adviser might sound controversial to a few, but a new study by Motley-fool found out that demand for Financial-Advisers sky-rocketed by over 42% since the pandemic and based on firsthand encounter I can say for certain their skillsets are topnotch. I've accrued north of 580k within 16-months from an initially stagnant Portf0lio worth 85k.
Inflation is over 10% here in the UK, but as we know it's definitely way more than the Government would like to admit. My plan is to earn more passive income and ride this out, can your Investment-adviser assist?
There are a handful of experts in the field. I've experimented with a few over the past years, but I've stuck with ‘’ Melissa Terri Swayne” for about five aiyears now, and her performance has been consistently impressive. She’s quite known in her field, look-her up.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search for her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
The most important thing that should be on everyone mind currently should be to invest in different sources of income that doesn't depend on the government. Especially with the current economic crisis around the word. This is still a good time to invest in various stocks, Gold, silver and digital currencies.
The key to big returns is not big moving stocks. It's managing risk in relationship to reward. Having the correct size on and turning your edge as many times as necessary to reach your goal. That holds true from long term investing to day trading.
Even with the right technique and assets some investors would still make more than others, as an investor, you should’ve known that by now, nothing beats experience and that’s final, personally I had to reach out to a market analyst for guidance which is how I was able to grow my account close to a million, withdraw my profit right before the correction and now I’m buying again
I’ve actually been looking into advisors lately, the news I’ve been seeing in the market hasn’t been so encouraging. who’s the person guiding you?
Having a counselor is essential for portfolio diversification. My advisor is Catherine Louise Meads who is easily searchable and has extensive knowledge of the financial markets.
I just looked up the broker you suggested on Google and I'm incredibly impressed with her credentials, so thank you for sharing. I'm going to send her an email right away
Concerns about a potential recession and the Fed's talk of interest rate hikes have left me uneasy. I'm unsure about my $440K portfolio strategy, considering the uncertainty of a recession and the possibility that interest rates may not rise significantly
I completely understand your concerns. But In this current unstable markets, It is advisable to diversify while retaining 70-80% in secure investments. looking at your budget, you should consider financial advisory.
I agree. This is why having the right plan is invaluable, my $510k portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and recently hit 100% rise fromm early last year. I and my CFP are working on a more figures ballpark goal this 2024
Pls can you recommend this particular coach you using their service?
She is "Melissa Maureen Ward". Also maintains an online presence. Just make a simple search for her name online.
Thanks for this. Found her and looked through her credentials before contacting her. Once again many thanks.
A recession is currently the "most likely consequence for the economy," and I cannot fathom becoming a victim of circumstances, with inflation at a four-decade high. In two years, I plan to retire, and my target retirement fund is $967,000. How can I assure this? What steps can I take?
My money was almost wiped out entirely in 2008. I took out my money and invested it with my wife's wealth manager. I haven't caught up to her profits over the years, but I do earn more. Haha
This is great. I started investing with a wealth manager in 2020, too. I hated myself for a long time because I didn't know I could do that. Funny how I have quit my day job, because my profits cover for every living expense.
That's quite impressive! I could really benefit from the expertise of these advisors; my portfolio has been performing poorly. Who is guiding you?
Monica Shawn Marti is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I appreciate it. After searching her name online and reviewing her credentials, I'm quite impressed. I've contacted her as I could use all the help I can get. A call has been scheduled.
Well, if you keep saying there's going to be a recession, you're bound to be right eventually 😂
Speak for yourself 🤓 🖕
Not in this case but the whole world is basically in a recession and the US is not and not at all so I would say it has to do with corruption in US favor
@@jamesbluelightning358 US just export its inflation lol
The US doesn't export anything really it actually imports alot from everyone so how do you figure that?
@@jamesbluelightning358 exports weapons sir. And holds patents on most modern technology.
Certainly. Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) are popular for long-term investments due to their diversified nature. ETFs offer exposure to a wide range of assets, such as stocks, bonds, or commodities, which can help reduce risk. Some top choices for long-term investing include broad market index ETFs, sector-specific ETFs, and bond ETFs, as they provide potential for growth and income over an extended period while minimizing the risk associated with individual stocks.
I agree, that's the more reason I prefer my day to day investment decisions being guided by an advisor seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time both employing risk for its asymmetrical upside and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downward turns, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis they have, it's near impossible to not out-perform, been using my advisor for over 4years+ and I've netted over 2.8million.
Kindly share the details for reaching your advisor. With inflation negatively affecting my funds, I'm in search of a more lucrative investment strategy to optimize their performance.
Deborah Lynn Dilling covers things like investing, insurance, making sure retirement is well funded, going over tax benefits, ways to have a volatility buffer for investment risk. many things like that. Just take a look at her full name on the internet. She is well known so it shouldn't be hard to find her.
I greatly appreciate it. I'm fortunate to have come upon your message because investing greatly fascinates me. I'll look Deborah up and send her a message. You've truly motivated me. Thank you.
Current situation:
1. Stocks are trading like the Fed already cut rates
2. Bonds are trading like rate cuts aren't happening
3. Gold is trading like we are on track for a "soft landing"
4. Oil prices are trading like we are entering a recession
5. Housing markets are trading like nothing is happening
Nothing adds up here.
Completely agree. Have you heard about Wall Street landlords being prohibited from buying homes? The Fed announced that they and their allies won't always have the advantage in acquiring Treasuries, which they manipulate for higher profits compared to owning mortgages long-term.
Yes, it's due to concerns about their impact on housing prices and accessibility for regular buyers. You can be on the winning side if you act fast and sometimes get insider information that can help you beat the market. I don’t believe in tracking broad indexes.
There are so many ways to get something like this done , what’s really important is finding the right person for it , I hope you become successful in trading.a good trading system would put you through many days of success.
Failing at trading with a winning strategy is because you are trading your profit and loss .
He's TE LEG RAM...
@samdeymon53 💯💯....that's it = 4 advise.
I came here to learn how to trade after listening to a guy on radio talk about the importance of investing and how he made 460,000k in 4 months from 160k. Somehow this video has helped shed light on some things, but I'm confused, I'm a newbie and I'm open to ideas.
Value your perspective and content!!depending on this current administration is a total failure I really have a question For someone with less than $15,000 to invest, how
The recession is not already here? My holdings are down by about 40%, things are generally more expensive now. Are they implying it can get worse?
For your portfolio to be down that much in these time of plenty when most people are in the green means you're doing something very wrong. It's either you make sure you have good knowledge of where you put your money or get a hedge fund or fin. adviser. to help you with it. Goodluck
Being down in this time of plenty surely means you're doing something wrong man. Most people are in the green and the market has been bullish. Either you make more inquiry as to where you put your money or use experts i.e hedge funds or fin.advisers to do the job. Goodluck
True... I've been using an FA since covid and I'm stunned that most people don't use this but prefer "gambling" and complaining they lost their money... I made close to a 100 grand last year and I know next to nothing on the matter...
been considering this for a while. where and how can I get a good one please.
You should start by looking out for those from known firms and good track records... You should also make sure the person is licensed... Personally, I use Kelly Matwick. She's good and you could also look her up...
What a wonderful guest. He should be on more often. Very refreshing no nonsense analysis.
Nobody is saying this so I will say it: what a delight of a host! So cheerful and candid.
Thanks for your efforts. My friends are going to invest part of their savings into quality stocks under the guidance of some sincere advisors Mr Sam .D. If we have to become prosperous investment in stock market is a must for each one of us. Please continue doing your best. Regards.
Sam deymon coach is teaching newbies how to trade on the web.
@samdeymon53 💯💯....that's it = 4 advise.
He's GOOGLE account AND TE LEG RAM..
I’m in Australia, and very new to this. I’ve been trying to find a broker . that has good customer services and is the commission through them expensive? love some clarification or guidance, please from MR SAM DEYMON.
Do you want to be a person who can confidently make your own investment decisions? If yes, check out our courses Mr SAM DEYMON /Courses It’s an opportunity to learn a lot of concepts relating to Stock Market, Mutual Funds, F&O etc. in a systematic, simple and fun-filled manner!
A market crash without plans to build more housing units is just pain for the middle class. Looks like thats where we're headed
There is no middle class anymore
It feels like we’ve been in a recession for a while
Inflation and purchasing power
recession doesn't mean vibes.
Facts
Recession requires high unemployment and two consecutive quarters of negative GPD. That has not happened
Vibecession. What you’re feeling is inflation as demand for everything you want to buy is still strong.
Not A ‘Delayed’ Recession but it's a A ‘Delayed’ Informations to public
Remember a time when the borders were secure, the world was at peace, gas was cheap and plentiful, groceries were affordable, mortgage interest rates were 2.5%, and the economic outlook was optimistic. I sure do miss those good old days from just over three years ago.
If one calls for a recession long enough, eventually one will be right.
He is goddamn right. Yield curve inverted for almost 600 days!
Just look at Gold prices. 2,350.00/ OZ ? Are you kidding me? Gold was priced at 277.00/OZ in 2001. Let that sink in.
Adjust it for inflation and you will realise old man has point
What a great guest speaker
So glad found this gem of a video! This explains everything in just a few minutes! Thanks
Lol, they've been predicting a recession for three years
Well you can keep it off by 3 years maybe even 10 years if government runs huge deficits (6% currently). If you have a balanced budget that 6% disappears and you have a recession.
Is recession prognosticators will be wrong till the government becomes responsible or the bond vigilantes force their hand. Either way when this comes to pass it’ll be bad, till then we can all be happy and participate in this “growth”.
@@sssandhu786% of GDP or 6% of government budget? Because U.S. economy is also growing at a faster than expected rate, not just its debt
Counterfeiting. Citation needed.
@@hamzamahmood9565 6% of the GDP = 6 ÷ 100 × (27.97 T) = 1.67 Trillion extra
Speak for yourself 🤓 🖕
But yall have money for people crossing the border 😳
The rich needs housekeeping and Labor.
They also have billions to spend on wars that they have no business being in
Why is it always about "The Company's Bottom Line" and never about the the worker's bottom line?
When profits are up, maybe MAYBE you should share with the people who made you those profits and not the bozo holding a piece of paper claiming they are an investor. Investing has risk, having a job shouldn't have risks of poverty.
Labor shortage will help with that.
Great interview! It felt like a granddaughter interviewing her grandfather. It was pleasant to watch.
Printing $1 trillion every 100 days is one way to tackle recession lol
Its only a recession for companies. The average American has been in a recession for a few years now. When prices doubled on a lot of groceries it began.
If it could make the housing market finally crash, that'd be great.
The housing market will crash when the economy crashes. Many jobs will be lost, maybe yours and mine. Banks wont lend and most wont be able to buy even at lower prices. Only the rich will buy causing an even bigger wealth gap. Careful what you wish for
Why are you wishing for people to lose their home so that you can afford one?
@@TheAnonymous916do you listen to yourself ?
@@TheAnonymous916 Yes actually. Sick of real estate robbing next generation wealth.
you forgot what happened in 2008. or maybe you were a child back then.
"This Time Is Different, but It Will End the Same Way"
WOW! 🔥
This dude is the most calm reasonable baby boomer I have ever heard 👏🔥
good insight...👍
He is right they saved the worst for last. It's going to get bad before it gets better
Excellent
If we're gonna get recessions this often then we need to completely rehaul capitalism.
Agreed
9:11 what did you guys cut off /:
A delayed recession. Translation: when one finally happens I was right.
He is the only person who pointed out that AI is hyped-up stuff. He knows his stuff
A broken clock is right twice a day.
More cautious in their spend or don’t have more menu to spend?
People anticipating for recession will make it huge when it finally happens
First quarter growth was a measly 1.6%. Stocks are tanking and real wages are down 14%.
Folks have been predicting this recession “just over the horizon” for the last 2-3 years. One of these years they will be right. Just interesting how that game works. I’ll just keep calm and keep investing.
We are not in a recession until the govt and media tells you so.
Never mind the prices of goods and services.
“Delayed Recession” So what the devil are we living in now SMH!!!! 🤦🏽♀️
What a intelegent and down to earth man
So, interest rates have fallen, pay is stagnate for millions of Americans, but companies are recording record profits.
It sounds like a the highering boom is to increase productivity in a hi return market by artificially maintaining high prices while lying to the consumers and charging them double for everyday items.
pay is stagnate for millions of companies, but americans are recording record wages.
@@poochyenarulez those number are miss leading due to the mass resignations during the pandemic. Those that didn't leave are stuck with no change to their pay despite inflation.
@@kineticstar Some people saw a raise between 2020 and 2024. Some companies lost so much money, they went bankrupt between 2020 and 2024.
@poochyenarulez that's the crux of these artificially maintained prices.
Only the large companies are winning this game while dumping employees, reporting enormous profits. They are forcing out a large number of small and mid-size businesses that can't compete with the jones's.
This is just the second Robber Baron age of America.
and mass layoffs in different industries. not just tech
It's sad how difficult things have become in the present generation. I was wondering how to utilise some money I had. I used some of it for e-commerce business, but that sank. I'm thinking of how to use what's left to invest, but I don't really know which way to go.
We are already in recession times minus Hosing Market crash for now.
4:40 I got a WHAL clipper and me and kids self serve our haircuts now.
Omg it’ll get here when it f*cking gets here… I’m so over the constant fear mongering and people pretending to predict the future… seriously how long have they been saying doomsday is coming?!!! 👎🏼
Getting tired hearing about how a recession is around the corner for the past 2+ years now.
😅
Republican regressives and their right-wing media sphere are trying to fake it til they make it.
I have been hearing about it maybe now for five .. Covid . Was that a quick one, not sure
I’ve been hearing about the coming great collapse since 2009.
It’s already eminent, but since we are a first world country we can’t portray the world that we are. Because morale will come all the way down.
Wait, is he a Beekeeper or a BEEKEEPER? 😂
Holy moly. Wait why is beekeeper telling us when the honey coming?
CORNYYYY
@@RichiiRich😂😂
Since 2020, this economy is a house of cards... just smoke and mirrors, no substance. The economy sucks, and I see a huge recession or even a depression. It's a bubble that is going to burst and crash like 2008.
Delayed recession is possible. Economic engine of US is hard to slow and takes a lot. Lots of credit and liquidity in the system, so people can get by for much longer on debt to maintain lifestyle and economic activity compared to previous generations. The jobs numbers are manipulated. Some sectors can't find enough workers, other sectors have ghost job openings and layoffs.
Why should wage increases affect the bottom line if the bottom line does affect wage increases? pay us a livable wage.
Wow, who knew someday a recession would happen!
I'm a person, my family members are people... why do I care about company's bottom lines? Those same companies couldn't care less about mine.
High interest rate has a delayed effect that may negatively affect economic growth. Things are good for now, but this high interest rate may eventually bring the economy to a recession if this lasts too long.
All signs point to reasons to increase interest rates. If they cut now it will be a disaster. They will probably just try not to touch them though.
The recession was a long time ago. Do you remember when the prices dropped? When the roads were empty? When people were panic selling? When people were dying alarmingly fast? The first half of 2020… only a 5-6 mo recession. Then they dropped the rates to improve the economy. And it worked. We went parabolic for like a year after that. Now we’re here … just flat.
These politicians better speed up their bunker builds 😅
"When you have times of trouble people go for the dollar" yeah not this time lol
Keep saying it and one day it’ll be true.
When he says he's 'Short' copper, does he mean short term trading or betting against copper?
I am predicting a recession. When it happens I am going to get on all the media outlets to discuss my book and start a podcast.
They're not "intergalactic", but honestly, they contributed to like 45% of the inflation the world has had
Instead of trying to predict and prognosticate whether or not we’re going into a recession, a better strategy is simply having a portfolio that’s well prepared for any eventually, that’s how some folks' been averaging 15% every 7week according to Bloomberg
One of the few old fossils who makes sense, every point was great.
We could only hope to make it to fossil status if we are lucky
Magnitudes greater
WTF it's gonna get worse. We are already in a recession we are going into a Depression.
Exactly ..
You can't ask an 86 year old about AI and expect to get a reasonable answer. His mind can't comprehend the increase in intelligence that a fully fledged AGI would bring to bear on the world because it represents and multi order of magnitude change to what he knows about life.
He is smarter than you young so called educated.
Too big to fail, too big to exist.
There are only a very small percentage of those who own the stock market. It has become absolutely ridiculous that we as the richest nation in the world even have to continue discussing these types of topics. I was born in 84’ and knowing the obscene amount of major corporations wealth has grown substantially every decade as our nations populations income and prosperity have dwindled, should be maddening to every lower, middle and even higher class citizen. We have driven the idea to our citizens that rent to own is valuable, while we watch that small percentage own everything around us and convince the population that it’s in our best interest. We’ve lost every meaning of indirect democracy and the power of controlling capitalism, through taxes and regulations through out sectors that every citizen needs (food, cost of living, wages, healthcare). We watch as we are told buying gives us freedom just to be told work longer hours and longer days if you want sustainable lives. What almost every working class citizen seems to forget, « If you have to go to work, even to make six figures; sorry buddy you ain’t rich. Just because you got more then bob, if you ain’t careful bob ain’t going to be the only one laid off from a company that cooks their books or gets caught embezzling money.»
Tax the ultra wealthy corporations that are indeed citizens, regulate that with what every citizen needs, stop the criminal act of voting with dollars, set limit terms on every elected official down the line, stop using property taxes to fund our schools and start lifting those who are experts in their fields instead of daming them from words of politicians and entertainment industry pundits.
That is all.
News flash we been in a recession for a while now
This guy is just spit-balling it. Yes, prices are not coming back down. Deflation would be very harmful. We'll get used to the new level as long as further increase moderates. The Fed may wait to reduce rates, but at this time nobody predicts further increases. If restaurants are booked (discretionary spending), that's a sign of consumer confidence. Protectionism and OUR insufficient birth rate could trigger a recession, but that is for after the election to worry about. He states that international conflicts getting out of hand is not a threat. I'd put that on my list of concerns noting how reliant the US is on international supply chain. Eventually there will be a recession: Unless you put a timeline on it, that's a truism.
When do you think a recession would hit us? After the election? Election years usually are up years I thought.
@@karmasutra4774 In my lifetime. I don't know when, but neither does this guy. Historically election years are the second strongest in the 4-year cycle, but past performance is not a strong predictor. The current government has a difficult time giving things away for political gain as the Congress is so divided. We generally overestimate the influence the President has on the economy good or bad.
"During labor shortage"...... There is no "labor shortage" - there is shortage of pay. Pay well and all openings will be filled right away. Nobody wanna work for someone for "free"....... More surprisingly that this is not recession right now, I though it is....
Calling democracy as India's advantage as compared to China is the most stupid thing I heard for decades.
Because we're entering the dystopian age.
Think about it in the year 2026.
Service sector has just started inflationary pressure. it is important since our national economy is service based economy, 70% is service economy the largest one in the world.
0 cuts
LOL, recession, really. The bears have been saying this for about 2 years now, eventually it will happen. Too funny.
Are jobs really on the rise?
only for "migrants"
the two wars have been disruptive especially in the Horn of Africa. The supply of grain has dwindled causing hunger and food insufficiency.
omg, what is he talking about at the end
Never disagree with the textbook
Great takes from this guest! Spot on for All of it. I hope I’m still that sharp when I get to be his age
What if Unemployment data itself is flawed ?? I mean the way it is calculated.
Why are we talking about a recession every year… but haven’t started taking the ultra rich 👀
Most countries eat beans meanwhile we eat chick fil a
People are dying for a recession and they've been proven wrong every time
Speak for yourself 🤓 🖕
@@firstlast8258 ok lmao
Transitory Recession
There is not going to be a recession in the next 2 years because the semiconductor industry literally became the main economy driver and will expend for decades. The markets are going to explode in 2 years when interest rates go back down a bit.
I hope you are on target
When the printers run out of ink, the house will fall.