Rod Serling said it best. “This is for the better part of the fact; an airplane. It’s made from metal, rubber and a thousand other component parts. They takeoff and they land. Occasionally they crash.” Unfortunately, this isn’t the Twilight Zone.
First Time Here! I respected your review and analysis. No Drama and Hype! Straight Facts with Character and Integrity Intelligent and Wise. No Conspiratorial or Political Rhetoric. Beautiful Personal Vidri Studio Set-Up. I’m subscribing, Thank You!!!
It's been said in a news briefing there are parts of the plane on the ground well behind the impact crater. This suggests parts the plane had been lost prior to the crash. If they experienced a breakup in-flight, perhaps that either caused or was the cause of the accident. Whatever the case, an unknown event prevented the right turn.
They were never even close to stall speed during the period when they had no control, no? He is mentioning stall but the high speed when it lost control would seem to eliminate that as being probable. What kind of angle of attack would you even need to stall at over 220 knots? I really wish these med planes had voice and data recorders. Can you briefly explain the split flap scenario for me? I'm not sure I understood.
@@duanebidoux6087On extension or retraction, the flaps experience an uneven or partial condition. This is very rare and the LVDT system won’t allow movement if all transducers don’t agree
@@duanebidoux6087 I'm thinking of a scenario where upon flap retraction (which would have happened right around the time the aircraft began descending), one flap retracted but the other did not. The aerodynamic asymmetry that causes is insidious and given the historic reaction times of pilots suddenly finding their aircraft departing from controlled flight, they wouldn't have had both the time to assess the cause of the problem and correct it. There was a recent incident here in Australia, for instance where a 737-8FE began banking significantly to the left because the pilot had accidentally turned the rudder trim knob instead of the cabin door release. I think it took the crew about 18 seconds to both figure out what had gone wrong and resolve the problem, by which time the aircraft had already got into a 42 degree left bank. We are all champions in a simulator scenario when we know something is going to go wrong but when it happens for real, there is always a delayed reaction. And in this Lear accident, time was something the crew did not have to begin with.
@@georgeforall if the CG has shifted behind the centre of lift, then that would be unlikely. Look up a video of National Airlines flight 102 and you'll see what I mean (although there was more in play in that accident than just a CG shift).
This is a wierd one. Normal takeoff and they began their right turn as instructed by the tower, then reversed the turn and continued in a left turn until impact. It's almost as if they stalled and dropped a wing, but they were a solid 50% above rated stall speed. And as I type that, I think of something Juan Browne says a lot. You can stall at any speed or attitude, but only one critical angle of attack. I bet they had a load shift and move the CG back, way back, just as they crossed the river off the end of the runway. Looking at the track, that's where the the turn reversed. Whatever happened, happened at that point. After that, they spiraled to the left and augured in.
My money is on one of two things (pure speculation, which I try not to do, but here we are). 1: Spatial disorientation or, 2: The crew believed the autopilot was engaged and stopped hand-flying the aircraft. In either case, it wouldn't take long for the plane to fly itself into the ground. I will be interested to see the results of the investigation.
Somatographic? Sorry, I’m not trying to correct. Actually I am trying to discern what that means. Is that like, a pilot “feels” (soma) something that he believes is supported by what he is seeing (graph) but that isn’t factual? I should google.
Good presentation, you did not go out and overly speculate, that only adds confusion to the chaos. Now onto some speculation on my part as all of us try to better understand this tragic crash: There were two large O2 bottles aboard, for patient application. I assume those were likely installed near the rear of the cabin, and plumbed forward to the stretcher area. I saw a strange news item today about a garbage truck explosion due to a O2 bottle. The NTSB should be able determine quickly from recovered O2 bottles, whether this was any factor. Only other causal threads I can think of is pitch/trim system or component failure, glass panels that lost power/display (though it would have had a backup horizon), or purely speculative, some kind of criminal event (suicide-murder/bomb). Here is the garbage truck explosion due to a discarded O2 bottle: th-cam.com/video/F6bSi37cdpg/w-d-xo.html
@@michaelmccarthy4615 Actually, they were returning a pediatric patient back to their home country of Mexico after she had received treatment in the US.
Very similar in many ways on the visuals. N880Z was a tightening turn base-to-final in off/on IMC (VFR, pilots cancelled IFR control), flight crew loaded the wings and stalled it low to ground.
It appears the sign is recent, as another sign is there on Google Maps. That mall entry road is where the plane impacted, yet the sign remains. The plane must have cartwheeled away from it.
I appreciate the AOPA ASI. I think you do good work. Having nearly 25 years in Aviation Manufacturing, I hold an A&P License, I also hold Commercial Single & Multi-Engine Commercial Pilots Licenses and more. Few people truly know about the hazards of Oxygen, especially Oxygen that is in a pressurized system or in a supplemental bottle or patient O2 bottles. I certainly do hope that the investigators don't gloss over the fact that there was very likely different O2 systems on board, some perhaps in use and being stowed in the accident aircraft. Remember, if you break the neck or valves off a pressurized bottle and it releases uncontrolled, you will have a missile in the cabin, unexpectedly. A damaged O2 bottle or contamination can cause and support a fire and explosion very, very quickly. all of which can bring down an aircraft very quickly. Just my thoughts regarding this unfortunate crash.
@@AlbertHess-xy7ky Oxygen supports fire and even the smallest particle of carbon in a system can cause spontaneous combustion and if it burns too quickly can be explosive in nature. Break a neck or valve off in a confined space and you have a missile in your cabin. Do the same in a hazardous environment and you can have one hell of a fire. What do you think happened to the Apollo Capsule that incinerated those three Astronauts. Gus Grissom being one of them.
I really wish these kinds of flights all had cockpit recorders and data recorders. If this had been instituted 20 years ago I have a feeling that by now there are a whole lot of people who would not have died. This made the news more than usual for this kind of crash--we've had a number like this in recent years (that just happened to go down somewhere other than a metropolitan area). The only thing that distinguished this was when and where it happened--so quickly after the DC crash and in a big city. My best go to all the loved ones of those lost.
CVR s were 1st mandated in the US in 1967. Guess you haven't heard, they FOUND THE CVR, 6 feet deep in the crater at point of impact. No mention of it condition was made.
Not really. To stay airworthy an aircraft has to comply with several regulations, most of them regarding maintenance. It is pretty common nowadays to see fully operational and well maintained aircraft with over 50 years of use. The lost Learjet is far from being an exception.
If the plane is pressurised like this one the number of flight cycles is most important. Before flight hours and age. If properly maintained no problem. Remember all the B52s in service are over 62 years old. There are also still airliners from the 1960s flying around
Do you, for some reason, expect the NTSB to just take that one data point and disregard it for some reason? Do you have evidence to support that assumption?
Why is nobody talking about the last words of the pilot? He says something like "they fucked with the wrong people " about 5 seconds later you hear a moan that sounds like someone being stabbed.
The most clear takeaway from the door camera video is, the plane burst into flames while in the air. You couldn't see a thing. then the sky lit up and the plane fell. An explosion/fire brought that plane down.
Did you even watch the video. "No indication of trailing fire or smoke in any videos we reviewed" the sky lit up AFTER the thing hit the ground. Stop spreading misinformation
People saying things as if they are fact, when those things didn’t happen, is blowing my mind. Like what reality are you visiting from and please go back and take that kool aid with you.
That's exactly what I been saying for the past few days. I think the elevator broke off of the tail. And they rolled both directions trying to get it under control.
@@ottodietz7644The problem with spacial disorientation is that you can't push the yoke hard enough to get that angle of attack. I believe it was a catastrophic loss of controls being the elevator in this case.
I appreciate these videos- never made too early, and always made with known facts.
Rod Serling said it best. “This is for the better part of the fact; an airplane. It’s made from metal, rubber and a thousand other component parts. They takeoff and they land. Occasionally they crash.” Unfortunately, this isn’t the Twilight Zone.
I wish all the conspiracy nuts would read this. And understand it. Reaching for the moon over here.
First Time Here!
I respected your review and analysis.
No Drama and Hype!
Straight Facts with Character and Integrity
Intelligent and Wise.
No Conspiratorial or Political Rhetoric.
Beautiful Personal Vidri Studio Set-Up.
I’m subscribing, Thank You!!!
Yup! They do excellent work breaking things down and always highlight what we can learn from incidents
Fantastic video, two thumbs up, more of I had them. Great improvement over past videos. Keep up the good work, appreciate the early lessons.
It's been said in a news briefing there are parts of the plane on the ground well behind the impact crater. This suggests parts the plane had been lost prior to the crash. If they experienced a breakup in-flight, perhaps that either caused or was the cause of the accident. Whatever the case, an unknown event prevented the right turn.
I hadn't thought of a split flap situation. That absolutely could have caused an accident exactly like this.
They were never even close to stall speed during the period when they had no control, no? He is mentioning stall but the high speed when it lost control would seem to eliminate that as being probable. What kind of angle of attack would you even need to stall at over 220 knots? I really wish these med planes had voice and data recorders. Can you briefly explain the split flap scenario for me? I'm not sure I understood.
@@duanebidoux6087On extension or retraction, the flaps experience an uneven or partial condition.
This is very rare and the LVDT system won’t allow movement if all transducers don’t agree
@@duanebidoux6087 I'm thinking of a scenario where upon flap retraction (which would have happened right around the time the aircraft began descending), one flap retracted but the other did not. The aerodynamic asymmetry that causes is insidious and given the historic reaction times of pilots suddenly finding their aircraft departing from controlled flight, they wouldn't have had both the time to assess the cause of the problem and correct it. There was a recent incident here in Australia, for instance where a 737-8FE began banking significantly to the left because the pilot had accidentally turned the rudder trim knob instead of the cabin door release. I think it took the crew about 18 seconds to both figure out what had gone wrong and resolve the problem, by which time the aircraft had already got into a 42 degree left bank. We are all champions in a simulator scenario when we know something is going to go wrong but when it happens for real, there is always a delayed reaction. And in this Lear accident, time was something the crew did not have to begin with.
@duanebidoux6087 no the elevator piece that connect the tail came off they tried to save it
Still getting used to the new “voice” here at the ASI.
Thank you for such a quick video!
Really well done, esp the takeaways. Thanks!
RIP crew and passengers
I found it interesting that the angle of attack continued into a more vertical attitude at it approached the ground. Maybe faulty elevator control.
Appreciate ya. Thanks for sharing.
How about a quick CG shift to the rear after taking off? A heavy piece of equipment, etc?
That would tend to preclude the extreme nose-down attitude we're seeing at the end.
@@stephenp448 I agree, but after a severe rear CG shift, would the aircraft not then stall, roll, and head straight down?
@@georgeforall if the CG has shifted behind the centre of lift, then that would be unlikely. Look up a video of National Airlines flight 102 and you'll see what I mean (although there was more in play in that accident than just a CG shift).
the bailing wire on the elevator broke
You must be a pilot.
Bumpy IFR and distractions leading to spatial D or perhaps a system failure? Hopefully, the CVR will shed light on what caused this. RIP7
I don’t think this aircraft had a CVR . Blancolirio mentioned it on his videos of this accident.
@@Upemm The NTSB just announced they recovered it in the bottom of the 7-8ft crater.
@@danielstott215 That’s good then, happy to stand corrected.
This is a wierd one. Normal takeoff and they began their right turn as instructed by the tower, then reversed the turn and continued in a left turn until impact. It's almost as if they stalled and dropped a wing, but they were a solid 50% above rated stall speed.
And as I type that, I think of something Juan Browne says a lot. You can stall at any speed or attitude, but only one critical angle of attack. I bet they had a load shift and move the CG back, way back, just as they crossed the river off the end of the runway. Looking at the track, that's where the the turn reversed. Whatever happened, happened at that point. After that, they spiraled to the left and augured in.
My money is on one of two things (pure speculation, which I try not to do, but here we are).
1: Spatial disorientation
or,
2: The crew believed the autopilot was engaged and stopped hand-flying the aircraft.
In either case, it wouldn't take long for the plane to fly itself into the ground.
I will be interested to see the results of the investigation.
descending left turn with no power reduction, 400 overcast. This looks like spatial disorientation of the somatogravic illusion type.
Somatographic? Sorry, I’m not trying to correct. Actually I am trying to discern what that means. Is that like, a pilot “feels” (soma) something that he believes is supported by what he is seeing (graph) but that isn’t factual? I should google.
This accident seems similar to Korean Air Cargo Flight 8509.
If the temperature was 9 10 degrees, why was it raining, instead of SNOWING?
Temperature Dewpoint Spread, not Outside Air Temepture
Celsius.
Good presentation, you did not go out and overly speculate, that only adds confusion to the chaos. Now onto some speculation on my part as all of us try to better understand this tragic crash: There were two large O2 bottles aboard, for patient application. I assume those were likely installed near the rear of the cabin, and plumbed forward to the stretcher area. I saw a strange news item today about a garbage truck explosion due to a O2 bottle. The NTSB should be able determine quickly from recovered O2 bottles, whether this was any factor. Only other causal threads I can think of is pitch/trim system or component failure, glass panels that lost power/display (though it would have had a backup horizon), or purely speculative, some kind of criminal event (suicide-murder/bomb). Here is the garbage truck explosion due to a discarded O2 bottle:
th-cam.com/video/F6bSi37cdpg/w-d-xo.html
Something seems to have locked b the elevator on nose down
Mishap ?
The crew is always suspicious
Mexicans?
@AlbertHess-xy7ky an old medivac plane headed south of the border for likely medical tourism.
@@michaelmccarthy4615 Actually, they were returning a pediatric patient back to their home country of Mexico after she had received treatment in the US.
My brother is NTSB at this incident. I'm NTSB AT DCA.
You have my dream career!
Are you both DEI hires?
Loss of spacial awareness. Or a horizontal stabilizer (jack screw) down malfunction.
Your second thought is exactly what I've been thinking since this happened. It's just way too sudden to be anything else in my mind.
I remember N880Z a few years back, this looks uncannily similar
Very similar in many ways on the visuals. N880Z was a tightening turn base-to-final in off/on IMC (VFR, pilots cancelled IFR control), flight crew loaded the wings and stalled it low to ground.
They hit the mall sign
It appears the sign is recent, as another sign is there on Google Maps. That mall entry road is where the plane impacted, yet the sign remains. The plane must have cartwheeled away from it.
I appreciate the AOPA ASI. I think you do good work. Having nearly 25 years in Aviation Manufacturing, I hold an A&P License, I also hold Commercial Single & Multi-Engine Commercial Pilots Licenses and more. Few people truly know about the hazards of Oxygen, especially Oxygen that is in a pressurized system or in a supplemental bottle or patient O2 bottles. I certainly do hope that the investigators don't gloss over the fact that there was very likely different O2 systems on board, some perhaps in use and being stowed in the accident aircraft. Remember, if you break the neck or valves off a pressurized bottle and it releases uncontrolled, you will have a missile in the cabin, unexpectedly. A damaged O2 bottle or contamination can cause and support a fire and explosion very, very quickly. all of which can bring down an aircraft very quickly. Just my thoughts regarding this unfortunate crash.
Of course there was. All jets have oxygen on board. It is rarely the cause of the loss of an aircraft. Oxygen does not burn or explode.
@@AlbertHess-xy7ky Oxygen supports fire and even the smallest particle of carbon in a system can cause spontaneous combustion and if it burns too quickly can be explosive in nature. Break a neck or valve off in a confined space and you have a missile in your cabin. Do the same in a hazardous environment and you can have one hell of a fire. What do you think happened to the Apollo Capsule that incinerated those three Astronauts. Gus Grissom being one of them.
actually human error takes off human lives ! IZAZ RASOOL MOHAN BARIDHARA GULSHAN DHAKA BANGLADESH 😢
Hello from São Paulo, Brazil 🇧🇷.
✌️🇺🇸 🇧🇷✌️
Certainly seems pilot-induced, to say the absolute least.
Huh?
You know what they say about assuming.
I really wish these kinds of flights all had cockpit recorders and data recorders. If this had been instituted 20 years ago I have a feeling that by now there are a whole lot of people who would not have died. This made the news more than usual for this kind of crash--we've had a number like this in recent years (that just happened to go down somewhere other than a metropolitan area). The only thing that distinguished this was when and where it happened--so quickly after the DC crash and in a big city. My best go to all the loved ones of those lost.
CVR s were 1st mandated in the US in 1967. Guess you haven't heard, they FOUND THE CVR, 6 feet deep in the crater at point of impact. No mention of it condition was made.
They are very expensive.
@@1958Cadillac-v2g Awesome. I probably misunderstood. Thought I had heard that there wasn't one.
Disclaimer: I am not a pilot. My question is, could it be relevant that this was a fairly old aircraft?
I routinely fly a 78 year old airplane. If properly maintained and inspected, age is not relevant.
Not really. To stay airworthy an aircraft has to comply with several regulations, most of them regarding maintenance. It is pretty common nowadays to see fully operational and well maintained aircraft with over 50 years of use. The lost Learjet is far from being an exception.
Some DC-3 aircrafts are about 90 years old
If the plane is pressurised like this one the number of flight cycles is most important. Before flight hours and age. If properly maintained no problem. Remember all the B52s in service are over 62 years old. There are also still airliners from the 1960s flying around
There are a lot older still in commerical service. Newer is better. But not too new.
pure speculation on my part)
the fact that it was a medical flight should be reviewed
end speculation)
Do you, for some reason, expect the NTSB to just take that one data point and disregard it for some reason? Do you have evidence to support that assumption?
Why is nobody talking about the last words of the pilot? He says something like "they fucked with the wrong people " about 5 seconds later you hear a moan that sounds like someone being stabbed.
Did you just 100% make that whole thing up? Because there sure isn’t data to support it.
The most clear takeaway from the door camera video is, the plane burst into flames while in the air.
You couldn't see a thing. then the sky lit up and the plane fell.
An explosion/fire brought that plane down.
Did you even watch the video. "No indication of trailing fire or smoke in any videos we reviewed" the sky lit up AFTER the thing hit the ground. Stop spreading misinformation
The aircraft lights blended the door cam.
People saying things as if they are fact, when those things didn’t happen, is blowing my mind. Like what reality are you visiting from and please go back and take that kool aid with you.
The elevator came off in mid air
spatial disorientation
That's exactly what I been saying for the past few days. I think the elevator broke off of the tail. And they rolled both directions trying to get it under control.
@@ottodietz7644The problem with spacial disorientation is that you can't push the yoke hard enough to get that angle of attack. I believe it was a catastrophic loss of controls being the elevator in this case.
Was it done on purpose ! by crew or other Other forces of KAOS.
😂
So unlikely that it's not worth it to further entertain this thought.
nutjob
Of all the things it might be, that is extremely unlikely
It was 100% Hydra.