Why Wagner Coup ACTUALLY Stopped before Moscow
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 6 ก.ย. 2024
- On the night of June 23rd at 21:00 Prigozhin posted video footage of a Wagner camp that he claimed was deliberately struck by Russian forces killing dozens of his men. This might have been a false flag operation. A fake attack designed to justify the armed rebellion that would follow. Then Prigozhin released a series of statements on telegram that were aimed at every regular Russian soldier, he requested they join him in what he called his “ march of justice” against the incompetent Russian military leadership in the ministry of defense that had misled President Putin and lied to him to get him into the Ukraine war.
Written by: Chris Cappy
Edited by: Savvy Studios
On June 24th at 4:44 in the morning he took between 8,500 and 4,000 of his most loyal mercenaries and up to 350 pieces of heavy equipment to take over the South Military district command in Rostov. Prigozhin claimed he had 25,000 mercenaries with him but that was likely an eggeration based on visual estimates of his forces.
He had with him nine main battle tanks, some T-90, four Tigr vehicles, a Grad MLRS system, and a howitzer, a Pantsir S-1 air defense systems, and infantry fighting vehicles. If his plan was going to work Prigozhin needed to leverage his social media influence to convince regular Russian troops to revolt and join his small group of soldiers. He didn’t have enough manpower on his own. The reason he didn't call this action a coup is two fold. First because it would be harder for Russian soldiers to swallow. They would be less sympathetic to join a coup which is seen as treason. But to revolt against the terrible Russian military leadership…. that they might stomach. Second, Not calling it a coup also gave him wiggle room to cut a deal if his plan failed he could say it was just simply a protest.
Let's look at what signals did Prigozhin have in front of him at the moment that might indicate he could convince regular Russian soldiers to join him? We know many Russian soldiers haven't been paid and haven’t gotten leave to go home in months. Instead of the $2,560 they are owed each month Russian soldiers say they have been paid several times less than that each paycheck. Some regular soldiers and conscripts have complained about not being paid in two months straight. There are two things you cannot mess with when it comes to soldiers, you cannot screw with their paycheck and you can’t screw with their chow. Prigozhin also claimed Russian casualties are many times higher than reported by their ministry of Defense. If soldiers feel their lives are being wasted away they might be at a tipping point to revolt.
#PUTIN #RUSSIA #prigozhin
One of the main sources used in research for this video:
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I feel like this coup / mutiny / armed rebellion business was over before my head was done spinning. Still trying to make sense of this nonsense.
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A reasonable and fairly safe interpretation. But what we don't really know is where the real a real answer may lie which we may never know, and IMO therein lies the reason Putin fled Moscow. He simply didn't know which of those around him were ready to put the knife in his back, and from Putin's standpoint, as well as the historical standpoint, this might even have included the Rosgardia. Prigozhin was in much the same position. You say both sides were unsure of the outcome. If so, then neither can we be sure.
Good reporting in general. You only missed one thing, and it is an important thing.
The Generals in charge of Russia's military each have their own somewhat overlapping political supporters that are both political and military power brokers as well as Russian Civilian Oligarchs. Putin has control over them all to a certain degree, however management of them all over their dislike of someone like Prigozhin is obviously VERY difficult, as he needs the entire powerbase to act in concert. If ONE (Prigozhin in this case) falls out of favor with the other Generals, Putin has to have the political common sense to NOT favor the ONE who is the outlier. Instead he navigated this situation very well by allowing Prigozhin to make his Political and also military points, while not destroying his LONG TIME very close ally, and also alienating the Russian political class. The end game was to keep both the Russian military support intact, while giving Progozhin the military support he needed to do Putin's business. One Prigonhin subordinate general was sacked, likely for taking bribes from the West, and Prigozhin was moved to Belarus and given MUCH more military support than he had before, to include funding for a HUGE military base, and the Russian Military now has Prigozhin off their backs and out of their supply chain. Everyone is happy in Russia's military, Putin, The Russian Generals and Prigozhin all get more and the west looses billions in Bribes and their one sellout Russian General, and the west is now facing and even more powerful and more coherent Russian enemy.
Internet wasn't really restricted in any way, at least in the cities that played a part in this whole thing.
Droopy dog prigozhin and mr.piglet pootin wont be alive soon and thier BOTS SEND THEM TO THE HAUGE!!
Glory to Ukraine
🇺🇦♥️♥️🇯🇲 !! GLORY to the heroes of Ukraine 🎉!! THANKS TASK AND PURPOSE ❤!
Could Prigozhin run for president in March 2024? It's possible he might be one of the few people who could do it and not end up dead or in prison. Yes? No? Interested to hear your thoughts Cappy.
"Gentlemen. When you set out to take Vienna, take Vienna."
- Napoleon Bonaparte
🎯🎯💯
1809 hat Napoleon zwar Wien besetzt, aber 20.000 Mann in der Nähe von Wien verloren! Moskau und Waterloo waren weitere Meilensteine seines Untergangs!
"And when you set out to take Moscow, don't forget your long underwear." -French Grenadier
Napoleon wished he had the stuff Wagner has during his military career!
@@gonatos21selbst Amerikaner kennen die Schlacht von Waterloo
Prigozhin was such a fool for giving up. Putin was never going to let him live.
He was fool for starting the coup earlier, the idiot could´ve waited a year or two later and ensured a legacy for the Wagner Group and Russia, Putin even wanted the Wagner group in Africa afterall.
That was my thought when his mutiny fizzled out. "Putin isn't gonna leave this guy alive for long."
@@harrietharlow9929 He never stood a chance. He was a suicidal fool. We'll propably never know what he was really thinking.
He had 9 tanks, putin's military had thousands of tanks, he didn't stood a chance, putin had thousand times bigger military
@@ykd0011 Given how far he got, it was pretty clear that the Russian military was demoralized and mostly just waiting to see what happened. Moscow's defenses weren't particularly strong either.
When this happened I was shocked that he lived through this. Then his plane accidentally ran into that unrelated missle, so it became moot.
His plane was crashed in Russia, not in Belorussia, where he's supposed to be exiled. Wonder why he returned to Russia.
God he was so close whyyyyy😒 still think about what-if
His plane accidentally ran into a missile? Shoot, I thought the wing accidentally fell of. Shows how much I know...I've heard of accidentally hitting birds in mid flight but not missiles, gonna have to be more careful next time I fly.
@@jonhildahl9982 yea bro. There’s missles growing wild on trees out the. They renadomly rife themselves, usually up in the air. It’s a crazy way to spread your seed, but the missle trees do it.
I’ve learned enough history where just because a bad dude gets overthrown, doesn’t mean the person taking over is not even a worse person
I sure as he'll would not want to be in their place. Some people want to RULE THE WORLE while the others just want freedom from the power taking over them over and o er and over and over and over again again again.
And I can say for sure that he IS a worse person.
He executed a deserter by putting his head against a wall, and smashing it with a sledge hammer. Nice guy...
@@innit1407 it wasnt simple deserter but a fresh convict who joined wagner to instanlty desert, he actually made it to Ukraine and gave interview there before he was handed back to wagner in exchange on some ukrainian pow. So that hammered guy had quite an adventure back and forth. Also its not Prigozhin who wielded sledgehammer. Its a cool story nevertheless.
@@innit1407 99% sure that vid was fake, hence why it was blurred out. Not saying they don't do lots of depraved shit, but that vid was more likely to try and scare recruits into compliance
Putin: It's not a war! It is a special military operation.
Prigozhin: It's not a coup! It's a justice march.
KFC : It's not a sandwich, it's a chickenburger !
It's not delivery
... It's digornio
Bro 😂😂😂😂
Prigozhin: I am NOT a petty criminal hot dog salesman - I am a fancy restaurantar and voice of the Russian people!
Bloody good!
I wonder if Prigozhin would've continued pushing towards Moscow had he known his ultimate fate.
He would have been stupid if he hadn't known. People have been assassinated for waaaaaay less.
I guess He believed more Troups would join and that a huge convoi would arrive at moscow,but a least some attemps to stop showed him He was far to optimistic. But many planes left Moscow as well
if he cont'd to Moscow he was likely dead and Putin would get to set the narrative, but at least now Prigozhin can set the narrative
I don't think he's dead. It was a move to show Putin's strength.
@@vipergx What would be the point in keeping him alive?
This is the most realistic and straightforward telling of events that I've heard so far. I know some wanted to be cutting edge news, but so often it is clickbait titles, chitter chatter and rumor. Thanks!
funfact;
it's not. this is propaganda, cappy's with the russians. sorry you had to hear it from me.
@@isaacwest Fun fact:
claims with no fucking sources can be easily disparaged.
Sorry you had to learn this from me
@@isaacwest He is not with the Russian, literally nothing he said here would support any Russian narrative. The entire event was most likely a psyop, Task and Purpose just fell for it just like most of the West. You cant take Moscow with 5000 and even if others had shown up you cant take Moscow with those numbers either. If Russian air power had come down on Wanger way more of them would have died. 13 unconfirmed deaths in a coup? I dont think so.
Also the whole US narrative about Putin is that he is a schitzo murderer deathly afraid of losing his tyrannical power and he is willing to murder a gas station attendant for speaking out against him. Yet he lets a popular billionaire warlord run his mouth for months and he lets him live.
Either the Wests depiction of Putin is way off, the Wests depiction of these events are way off, or BOTH.
@@JaniHorvat1 but you'll gobble up what this channel feeds you without a single source stated.
Lmao, delusional simp.
@@isaacwest Concur. Blinded by the reality of the world. Conveniently ignores the GLARING issues.
Why so many Not Sees in Ukraine?
Good video, as always! Just a note - a telegram channel from 10:50 is actually not a Wagner channel. It is run by someone called Alex Parker, who has no known affiliation with Wagner. I think he changed his channel name a few hours after the coup attempt started.
I never expected you here
The history channel with the pretty animations is here!
What is Wagner's real TG channel? I've seen a ton of pretenders but nothing verifiably official.
Who read that in his voice?
@@Anton2046gfknкепка пригожина
My man! This is hands down the best research and analysis I’ve seen online. You are head and shoulders above the media on this. Respect for your hard work and diligence. Consider this comment my gift to the algorithm. Keep up the good work! 🙏🏼
This was all proven to be fake.
Fantastic job Cappy - you've made this entire situation make a lot more sense than the media ever did 👍
The whole putsch was a chaotic, ongoing event. I think we've just barely reached the point where we can start to look back at what happened now. I think people were aware of the conflict and reported it, but few people including Kreml thought Wagner would push it this far.
I still don't know what will happen to Prigozjin now. The official line from Kreml is that he and others in the convoy will be free to move to Belarus but I'll believe that when we see Wagner staff and the guy himself set foot there.
For me it was another confirmation that GI Joe was right. Dictatorships are run like clown shows.
he did not! Wagners was getting bilions anualy from Putin. Prighozin have catering company that is supporting russian army in many bases. Al this is not clear and that is why nobody say anything about this. The whole NATO is scared and try find your what happened. They know more then this idiot. So they are not sure. Ususaly the US control gossips and make problems. That is why they have ready media and talk about it. This time what happened was not controlled by the US and that is why they was waiting for days.
So hindsight is better than reporting at the time of actual events? That’s so insightful, if only we had a saying for something like that…
It’s pretty ridiculous that your break down and analysis is way more thoughtful and less sensational than all of traditional media coverage of the “one day coup”
I'm not a part from woke community or something else, but Cappy has better break downs than many "former army generals" or specialists on the mainstream news...
The difference between having to report something as it's happening vs reciting history.
DW and CNN have detailed videos on the same topic. You're just too lazy to look them up.
Are you going to respond to the commenters calling you out? They’re not wrong, the “traditional media” does have detailed timelines as one commenter stated.
@@GulNadarYeah fr fr. Like the quality of information is going to be 15 times news media when you have 15 times the time.
Well we know how this ended. RIP Prigozhin…. When you go for the king, you can’t miss
check in checkmate
Prigo knew he would have died Russia knew Wagner was going to do a coup that's why they stopped giving Wagner ammo
He was a complete fool, had he waited longer he may have actually guaranteed a russia and Wagner group legacy, instead he makes both look like trash on the world stage.
@@sebas8225 He was a fool. That's it, everything else you wrote is pointless and meaningless.
He wasn’t going for “the King”. He incorrectly assumed “the King” valued his life. Putin loves when his puppets fight to keep Russians distracted from his theft of the wealth of Russian citizens (Kleptocracy).
There was also people like General Surovikin, who were known Prigozhin supporters, but did not join in who were arrested. Though interestingly Surovikin disappeared at the time of the failed coup, and was not arrested until last wed when he was caught. A popular general with Wagner connections. Some have theorized that some generals like him, were going to join, but something spooked Prigozhin into acting early before the others were ready, and they didnt join in (and some like Surovikin went underground) because of it. But now are being arrested. Lots of shakeups in Russia, and Putin will use this to purge political opponents by claiming they were in on it, whether they were or not.
Surovikin arrested? For real?
@@Raptor243 according to many media outlets and NATO intel, he was "detained by the FSB" after he disappeared during the coup. And we all know what being detained by the FSB really means
Clown Surovikin wasn't arrested. Clown!
Honestly, there is a chance for this to backfire on Putin
I don't have deep knowledge but, I would think someone like Prigozhin isn't stupid and obviously knows how to leverage the marketplace of power. We would have to assume that he had some others that were supposed to take some actions.. oligarchs sending help or some power shift. I think most are certain that no one involved had a single motive or acted in a completely forthright manner. Everything is complex.. not brilliant or 7d chess, but complicated with money, power, influence, and.. windows.
Thanks for a concise timeline of all the events. No one has explained this better, on TH-cam or TV
wait until we factor in victor bout the merchant of death, we traded him for brittney grinder
Why does he look like Mike Ehrmantraut from Breaking Bad 💀💀💀💀
same but fatter
@@martinivanov1306 true!!
Because he is
This is, by far, your best video to date. Well done. You put it all together in an easy to digest package
🌱👌👌🏽
No it is ridiculous, Prighozin is no hero, he is a war criminal with same label as the US army in Iraq and Afghanistan
Thanks for putting together such an insightful recap. All the conflicting news about this made it murky and hard to follow. After watching your video I finally feel like I understand what happened. Great work, Chris!
“all the conflicting news..”
this video presented all those same conflicting theories and didn’t give any theory of its own to add value. Everything said here is not only public knowledge, but well public, and well “old” so to speak.
@@toughbiblepassages9082and mostly western propaganda...
@@toughbiblepassages9082 Yes, it just gives a timeline, with no added analysis or commentary. For example, it casually mentions the taking of Rostov on the Don, but not how significant a target it is (holding it would paralyze Russian logistics), and the implications that it was taken without a struggle. It shows lack of familiarity and understanding of the situation (laughably declaring Kadyrov's improv theatre TikTok forces as a meaningful threat).
Yet instead of truthfully conceding that no one actually knows what happened behind the scenes, and how confusing this is even to true experts in the matter, the video has a clickbait title purporting to contain the "actual" explanation of why the coup stopped. I am baffled by the praise given to this.
@@danielguy3581 What does it matter?
@@danielguy3528 As pleased as I am to find a fellow Daniel Guy in the wild, I am perplexed by the question. Some people don't like wasting time on low quality videos with clickbaitty titles.
You've gotten good at explaining complex material in a way everyone can get. At the same time there is plenty of detail for people with backgrounds in international conflict, politics and law. Nicely done!
Solid journalism, better than anything I've read elsewhere. Thanks cappy.
except he is wrong about why Wagner moved in 3 collums on 3 diffrint roads, if they moved on 1 straight line, they would have been an easy target.
and he calls himself a former infatry man, then he should know why moving in a single collum is a bad idea
he saing wht he heard. not the true. Wagners was getting bilions anualy from Putin. Prighozin have catering company that is supporting russian army in many bases. Al this is not clear and that is why nobody say anything about this. The whole NATO is scared and try find your what happened. They know more then this idiot. So they are not sure. Ususaly the US control gossips and make problems. That is why they have ready media and talk about it. This time what happened was not controlled by the US and that is why they was waiting for days.
@@weybye91i guess you're the one person who watched the video but didn't understand anything he just said, because he actually gave a solid reason for the diversion of the military convoy on this video. Maybe you were just rushing to comment sh!t, without first watching the video very clearly.
Solid journalism? 🤣
The Russian defense ministry also told US commanders who had U.S. troops guarding a facility in Syria that the Wagner group was not affiliated with Russia and green lighted the US troops to attack. The US decimated the Wagner group completely and in short order. I’d imagine that didn’t help relations between Wagner and Russia.
I think that was an error in communication, not him greenlighting the US to kill the Wagner.
Decimate means killing one in ten, so "decimate completely" doesn't work, just so you know
@@eachday9538 language evolves, especially over the course of 2000 years. Decimate has multiple meanings now, in modern use it means to drastically reduce or destroy large numbers. Killing every tenth soldier is more of a historical context, so technically you're both right.
@@kutter_ttl6786 It is nowadays used to loosely express a range of destruction, but at the point that you add "completely" it becomes the wrong word, "annihilate" is what was meant.
@@eachday9538 Hello, random English Major here...no, both Kutter and Rusty are correct. Although to say "decimated" and "completely" in the same sentence is a bit redundant, they are still right because the Wagner group attacking Syria were not annihilated--which means wiped out. Most of them died and were decimated--as both have said--but a good hundred or so survived. That's still a company-sized element in some countries, so...decimated is the right word to use. And on top of that, redundancies are accepted a lot more than you would think, like when people say "little tiny." It's just one of those socially accepted things that people don't care to correct, and on the basis of how words change meanings, a good example of that is how "gay" is also now a term for "homosexuals" versus "happy/carefree."
Never try to be a smartass for no reason, because there's always a bigger smartass. :)
This was by far the best coverage and journalism I’ve heard in a long time. Well done and believe one thing. Putin would never let this just “go away”.
comment aged well
Chris , Your knowledge of weapons tactic and military doctrine is impressive. You should march on the Pentagon and take over the Joint chief of Staff position and show them how its done All your videos are awesome, I've watched them all.
Thanks I really appreciate that man. Sounds good, Let’s get the spare parts army together and take over DC?
@@Taskandpurposedidn’t go well for the last guys
@@Taskandpurposewhat If you also take over onlyfans with your Spare pars army ? Asking for a friend
@@GeorgeWashingtonLaserMusket LOL The Feds would start offering arms and suggesting dates for planning sessions. ;-)
@@blshouse Your pretty spot on with that. I've read a few books about former Fed operations dealing with Biker's, White Nationalists, and other wannabe Terrorists. Seems the Fed's really love to supply non-fuctional weapons, fake explosives,help set up the plan and push the motivations forward. Then come the arrests. Then years later come the tell all books that I've read.
Very good analysis, it makes some sense of the entire situation. You could figure out what really happened but clearly a lot of people were really confused on what happened so this video is insanely useful.
They are still confused, just Task and Purpose doesnt mind spewing nonsense.
@kirsch-qj9bg yes that is a problem but that doesn't make russia look like a beacon of stability
Seriously 9 tanks & 8,000 men to take Moscow, he clearly did read about Napoleon or Hitler
He didn't have enough men and equipment to take Moscow which was precisely the reason that he didn't try to take Moscow. IMO Prigozhin/Wagner trying to take Moscow in one go was never part of the plan/the plan IMO was always for Wagner to conduct an armed reconnaissance mission into Russia to test their defences. Anyhow; I kind of think that Prigozhin dying might have been a fake news story put out by Prigozhin/Wagner. His body was never displayed.
He was hoping for support from the majority of russian army on the way.
For a humble infantryman, you sure have a firmer grasp of facts and background than most armchair pundits, journalists and historians :D
Not hard when you have the best sources in the world available ..
The largest NATO source on events in Ukraine is still the UK ministry of defence and its intelligence service. When they announce stuff, they have been pretty reliable. Mostly at a greater scale.
There was a lot of stuff floating around social media, this is one of the new wars where 80's mechanized warfare and even earlier static defence mixes with modern wireless social media. When Wagner and the MoD had their air duel, there was random blokes filming it.
There is a few international correspondents still reporting inside Russia. Their work seems to get harder, with interview subjects facing greater risks.
Its not hard when you dont have an agenda. I remember western media personalities building up Prigozhin like he was going to be the 2nd coming of christ 😂
Flash mob, special mercenary operation, kinder coup…. Whatever you call it, it was a clown show 😂
Straight out from Perun's comment section: Chicken Coup...
No it was a side show of Putin's main clown show.
@@charlesmartin1121 Putin won the war in Syria, and in Ukraine. What war has the US won?
All the clowns live West of Russia. How reality about what has actually happened in this war has not gotten through to you sheep is beyond any reason.
*The fortunate thing about time... we'll see.*
SAVAGE... 🤣
Has ever anyone seen the Pope and Prigozhin together? They are like Superman and Clark Kent. 😆
It was a mutiny that was provoked by multiple disputes. Prigozhin lives for recognition and really wants to be seen as a Russian hero. Cutting him out of control of the mercenaries was a step that he couldn’t stomach because of the loss of profile and protection. Thus in his mind he had no choice but to go down fighting. Mutiny and exile was preferable to submission, irrelevance, and likely imprisonment or death. He still might face prison or death at some point but at least it is avoided for the moment and more importantly he can seek to maintain some degree of relevance by keeping Wagner functioning mostly outside of Russia and having a voice to continue criticizing the Russian government. It is a downgrade but better than nothing. I won’t shed a tear for the brutal thug though.
That's about right.
A lot is explained by the fact that Russian defence minister Shoigu runs his own PMC In competition with Wagner. The analyst Maxim Tucker Explained this on times radio.
Then why stop? Why not go out in a blaze of glory instead of give up last minute? He’s dead either way. Assuming this was a real mutiny; YP’s likely fates would’ve been either:
1.) Dying in battle in Moscow (or on the way to Moscow).
2.) capture and execution.
3.) surrendering and ensuring death by FSB assassination later down the road.
This seems like an overly simplistic explanation.
@@MyNameIsJ3ffrey prob because they only care about thei own asses, this was pnly done in the hopes of getting more power, hes probably worse threat than putin.
Which brutal thug?
This is truly a medieval warlords saga.
Well - what happend to Prigozhin is the same thing that happend to Albrecht von Wallenstein in the Thirty-Years-Wars ... minus the being impaled by a hellebard bit. ;)
Game of Thrones?
@chrishieke1261 Wallenstein's assassination was the highlight of that terrible war.
@@chrishieke1261 who knows the man might get himself impaled by one or even get impaled by a missile (which is essential a halberd or spear, that can go boom) if we're going for a modern comparison
Fun fact: Wagner was named after Hitlers favorite composer Richard Wagner
So he was named after his parents favourite composer that just happened to be Hitler's also, or they thought "I love Hitler so I'm going to name my son after Hitler's favourite composer"?
I've heard the term Coup de Blyat', and I think it fits this situation perfectly
lol
"SHOIGUU! GERRRAASSIMOV! WHERE ARE MY SHELLS!"
-Word's most influential ex-hotdog stand owner
Such a mystery as to why Prigizhin and Wagner mercenaries are still alive. Anybody else who would have done this would have been met with fierce resistance, arrested, and then publicly executed. It's pretty obvious that something else is going on.
@RenegadeLK. I think the Police and Border units do not have the training to go up against Wagner's battle-harden trained killers. There are 8k of them! If the police units tried to fight them, you would end up w/ at least 10k+ dead Policemen. Not a desirable situation during wartime.
Because all the army and armored vehicles are in Ukraine. Inside Russia only police forces with no tanks and combat experience were left. The only military equipment which Russia still has in spades inside the country is aviation, because it's not that heavily used in Ukraine due to the anti air systems. That's why they used aviation to stop Vagner forces and had so many losses of helicopters and one plane. Fun fact is that the plane was likely not involved in stopping Vagner, it was something like a flying command center and was likely returning back to Russia from a mission in Ukraine.
No, it's not obvious. What's obvious is Prigozhin still had thousands of armed soldiers and he was *allowed* to leave because otherwise there would've been a freaking battle in the outskirts of Moscow and neither Prigo nor Putin would've come out of that looking clean
@@viysnjor4811exactly. After the airstrikes and being block by police units the column had to sidetrack. He knew that the 5k chechens and many thousand spetznaz were waiting to ambush him. He realized he was going to die and gave up for a deal.
I think it is just the harsh reality that Russia had deployed nearly everything they have to Ukraine and that there is really nothing left in Russia to stop Wagner's run to Moscow. A bunch of cops aren't going to stop armoured tanks. It was going to be a massacre if push came to shove.
I suspect that is why both Prigozhin and Putin were quick to accept the deal. Prigozhin realised that he didn't have the support necessary to pull off a coup. He could get to Moscow and blow stuff up but then what? He didn't have the manpower to hold the city. Meanwhile Putin realised he didn't have anything that could actually stop Prigozhin apart from the Russian air force, which is what he attacked him with. If either of the two tried to force the issue, it may have escalated into a full blown civil war. And neither wanted that when they are already at war.
There’s a huge piece of the puzzle missing that justifies another video.
Wagner is a huge business around the world. The presence in Africa is a major influence and the revenue it generates is massive.
The implications of the end of Wagner group are still in its beginning
I commented this exact same thing myself. The 2nd & 3rd order consequences for Putin/Russia are going to be massive
Wagner will promise not to overthrow governments that hire them and African governments will believe them.
Does anybody know if the rumor that Assad in Syria arrested Wagner forces under the orders from Putin is true ?
Their troll factory has reportedly been closed. Let's hope it's not rebooted.
This is the clearest, most detailed, and most sensible explanation that I have seen on this issue. Now things are making more sense.
Why is it that this channel gives us 90% more info than the mainstream media? Keep it up Cappy.
Because the mainstream media has to cover national news too.
Because mainstream media's entertainment television, CNN and fox included.
Conventional news sources are low quality now
@@andrewalderman9489if I had dollar for every video mainstream media pulls out on ukraine, I would have bought myself a gaming PC by now!
Maybe they have someone on the inside, a Russian giving them info.
TH-cam is mainstream, jfc
This reminds of an observation from history: In rebellion after rebellion in the Medieval period, the rebels were not rebelling against the king, but against some corrupt advisers who were hurting the king. "I'm the true friend of the king! Any who is loyal to the true spirit of the home we all love, join with me in righting the wrongs that have been committed by the terrible, treasonous usurpers who are stopping our greater monarch from doing the good he desperately wishes to do!"
Because no one interacted with the king but his annoying henchmen in the more local areas. Then they find out he's really with them then he gets toppled.
@@randomlygeneratedname7171 There's also the religious aspect. Most dynasties ruled because of a perceived divine right, this was taken quite seriously and even most external invaders would seek to have some kind of claim to the throne they were trying to steal no matter how tenuous. So a rebellion against a monarch if you had no such claim could be regarded similarly to heresy.
So all this includes assuming allegations because the king over threw queen. In this game of pawns. Queen will not save the king.
Incredibly well done video. Super informative. Thank you for your time.
That "Shoiiguuuu" never stops to make me laugh.
GERASIMOV!!! 😡🤬
@@ChristianSt97 Where the FK IS THE AMMUNITION???
One thing is for sure, Prigozhin will stay away from windows from now on.
Find a new joke dear lord
@@whatisahandle_69 don't cry, we don't care
@@whatisahandle_69 you find the window jokes to be a pane?😀
@@whatisahandle_69it’s not a joke 💀
i doubt that he can avoid Microsoft his whole life
great production quality! been following this channel for years, spareparts for ever etc. but yeah really these new videos are getting so high quality they are switching the channels image completely. Very impressed, please keep it up!
For real, though, if you made twice as many videos I would watch every single one.
You forget to mention the multiple times the russian military did actually fire on wagner. They weren't all false flags
this is a great point! there were many other reports from them stating the Russian military was firing at them, whether it was on purpose or an accident I dont know but there is a lot of evidence they were targeted . I'm not shedding any tears for them, but yes you're correct wish I had brought that aspect up
@@TaskandpurposeI can guarantee you that it was on purpose although you won't agree with my methods of finding this out.
It's a Russian misinformation op campaign to see if there's traitors with its ranks and the u.s. payed 8 billion for the coup by Russia played America backed coup
That's true
@@Taskandpurpose I'm no Russian supporter but you did paint Wagner as standing no chance against the Russian military due to their superior air power but Wagner shot down 3 helicopters in a day after they turned on their air defence systems and almost completely stopped Russian aviation attacks on their convoys. I feel like there is more to why Wagner stopped their march.
Haven't thought about this for, er, 9 months. I found it a tad confusing at the time. This has made it clear now. Great. Thank you.
Great overveiw of this situation I personally think Prigozhin's goals were fluid and not just a coup or simple protest. I think his main goal was to save his own skin and save face in front of his men. As that is honestly what it looks like after the ammo incdent as his outspoken(Rightfully I think) nature and having had the most elite troops in Russia. Meant Putin would kill him even if he was about to win the war for him. So as of right now I think Prigozhin and Putin got a happy middle ground conclusion to their diagreement.
There is no such thing as middle ground in life or death.
@@JeffreyStockwellthanks for your expert opinion on the matter, Jeff.
I don't think Putin is the type of person to forgive and forget.
It wasnt a happy middle ground, more like a begrudging compromise.
He just looks like any other murderous, dead-eyed old Russian man to me.
A product of mixing Bratva culture with the corpse of a superpower's rotting arsenal.
Excellent evaluation of what has happened. The fact that Russian forces were conducting airstrikes on the convoy and Wagner forces shot down Russian aircraft suggest that none of this was staged. Plus I think the reason Rostov was taken without a shot fired was to avoid bloodshed and more importantly avoid any civilian casualties.
Prigozhin is good as dead though. Putin will not let this stand unpunished. If I were Prigozhin, I would stay away from any windows and multi-story buildings.
And only drink things we do, and be aware of umbrellas and rags with chemicals
Actually Putin will let prigozhin do just fine because Putin believes in cold realpolitiks where only the present and future matter not the past.
@@raptorhacker599 yeah right, say that the guys that had injected polonium, or other things
@@raptorhacker599 Perhaps in the short term. After all of Wagner fighters are put under the control of the army or other mercenary groups, any potential backlash from something unfortunate befalling Prigozhin will be eliminated. Lushashenko would be the one to take the heat from any misfortune befalling him.
@@dmac7128around 75% of them are already under control of the armed forces, they were told to decide between joining the military or leaving for Belarus.
Well, as of current events it would seem Prigozhin’s ambitions outstripped his abilities.
Legitimately an insightful analysis. Most folks covering this topic don't mention the backroom deals to transfer allegiance of PMCs to the MoD.
Only one minor thing is that Prigozhin stayed in Rostov on Don - he didn't go with the convoy as was implied with his face on the map.
The plan to absorb PMC's into Russian MOD has been broadcasted across the world for months. It's only a hush hush in trash media.
T😢tttttt😢t to 4:07 to 4:07 😢 to tt😮😢😢?
4:20 4:20 4:20 tt
4:20 4:20 4:20 trr😢😢
My brother is a PMC Wagner contracted soldier. What they have told is there is more to story. Many more behind this rebel act than what meets the eye. The Russia defense ministry is upside down now. Many have said that Yevgeny will live in peace in Belarusia due to deals being made. Only time will tell. My brother now working in Syria still. They are coming home very soon. Not much he can tell me over the call.
do you live in the same country as your brother?
@@blacktiger995bro stop with the fed shit and let my man live,
@@blacktiger995what are you, a narc?
Hope he comes home alive and in one piece
They are going to help with new projects against poles and finns
I’ve been binging your channel and I can tell you it is one of my favorites ever thank you
I wonder if this had happened ~30yrs ago, before the advent of social media, if he would've actually gained more of those troops he was driving by on his way to Moscow.
His popularity is largely due to his videos on telegram though isn't it? He says the things many Russians are thinking but can't say out loud themselves.
@@MakerInMotion You make a good point, he's "well known" because of social media to begin with.
He was clearly far more adept at using socials than putin.
Great video Cappy!! I'd love to see you cover the 2nd & 3rd order consequences not having Wagner will have on Putin/Russia going forward, now that they've been disbanded/absorbed by the regular Russian military. Namely what happens in Syria/Africa, the middle east & Ukraine without Wagner's presence
Happy 4th of July!! 🇺🇸🎆🎇
Putin needs Wagner to make lucrative money for the kremlin. They aren’t going anywhere. Too valuable.
You don't think Wagner already exited that area? The Russians are desperate. Even if they win, they will lose because their Army and Air force will be crippled.
@@knoahbody69 they absolutely have not exited syria and africa. thats where all the money is. if anything they have grown. why go fight in bakhmut for $1 billion when you can kill isis in syria and kids in flipflops in africa in exchange for 10s of billions worth of oil and mining rights?
Wagner will be replaced by another PMC Russia needs they’re failsafe.
it is ridiculous, Prighozin is no hero, he is a war criminal with same label as the US army in Iraq and Afghanistan
You do really great work, Cappy. Top Tier.
Great work once again. 60 Minutes Australia just released a video on this same subject and depsite the disparity of resources for production value, reasearch, etc. you managed to put together a better produced and more accurate and informative video. Keep up the great work Pvt. Kris Kathy!
Wagners was getting bilions anualy from Putin. Prighozin have catering company that is supporting russian army in many bases. Al this is not clear and that is why nobody say anything about this. The whole NATO is scared and try find your what happened. They know more then this idiot. So they are not sure. Ususaly the US control gossips and make problems. That is why they have ready media and talk about it. This time what happened was not controlled by the US and that is why they was waiting for days.
Wagner group is loved in Africa and they control many mines. Diamonds and other resources. They too much depending on Putin and Russian federation.
This was not against Russia, just against 2 people in russian government.
The C.I.A missed its mark not backing this guy.
We will never know what would happened if he succeeded
military coups aint good, USSR, Myanmar, Afganistan
You can be sure we all would have been more f*cked up
taking over moscow was never the goal. it all is a plot to trick you
It would have been awesome. The liberal Putin would have been removed. Russian borders would have been closed for migrants. And Ukraine thing would have been over in matter of days. Just by nuking kiev and lviv
@@DarkenergyAFO898exactly. Russia has 6500 nukes.
Why did Wagner stop? Probably because of a call. FSB to Prigozhin: "We have your wife and daughter under house arrest. Yevgeny, you wouldn't want them to get hurt would you?"
the main reason autocratic nations have absolute power over their citizens. Dissenters can always be silenced if you remind them of their relatives..
Well that and there’s no way a force of less than 10k can take a city 40x the size of bakmuht and even then it took them 9 months to do it.
The unit I was part of when I served in the Russian military did exactly that, our task was going after dissidents and anyone who could be a threat to Russia as a nation.
@@ikematthews6866If some of the people side with you you can. From the videos I have seen the Russian people they came into contact with on the way were happy to see him.
The CIA managed to flip him but the plan fell apart because of course it did. Then he chickened out and Putin took him out.
CIA can't get shit done these days 😂😂😂
The idea that he’s going to live out his days in Belarus is as believable as when your parents told you the family dog is living happily on a farm.
😂 LOL
@@erinhennessy1393 amirite?
Listen man wagner was war torn its wild they even sent those guys into ukraine it shoulda never happened.
This is the best take on this subject I’ve heard or read. And much more concise than most. Every news story doesn’t deserve a book.
The angle that's missing is how he fits into the story vs. Aleksandr Dugin & his place in the Greater Russia world domination plot. After all, he owns the Olgino Troll farm, too. The most pernicious of Russian propaganda tools. It actually alters US elections.
dont forget we traded these guys weapon supplier for brittney grinder
Everything you said is what I've been speculating as well. Lack of support and a threat to his family would be the only reasons he would have stopped.
Without Wagner, Prigozhin is a dead man walking.
Amazing coincidence that a stray missile was randomly on the same flight path as his plane. Nuts
For as well-known as Wagner has become, being around for 8-9 years isn't the type of longevity I would expect from such an insular and well-funded organization. I'm curious if there have been earlier iterations that weren't thrust into the limelight as much as Wagner has been recently.
Decades from now people will say that Prigozhin stole from the rich to give to the poor. We are witnessing the beginning of a new Robin Hood legend. Even though now we know the reality of his evil.
Prigozhin is a great example of why you don't show your ops all your moves just to flex on them over social media.
I can’t stop laughing when you say “shot down 2 attack helicopters” 😂 f’kn’ insane!
Best report of this incident I've seen. Well done, as usual Chris. Thank you!
Very impressive reporting: supporting evidence, covered a lot of bases, and expertly presented.
No it is ridiculous, Prighozin is no hero, he is a war criminal with same label as the US army in Iraq and Afghanistan
I know that a lot of people who are rich and powerful don't actually have any talent or expertise in the thing they are nominally in charge of. But when you hear the leader of an army fighting in Ukraine was in and out of prison before becoming a hotdog salesman, then opening expensive restaurants and finally becoming mates with Putin it's just even more depressing than you would think would be possible.
It's always tempting to imagine there are "deep reasons" for people's behavior but history shows us clearly that most actions are the result of either (i) misjudgment, or (ii) plain old-fashioned stupidity. The Perun channel just put out an excellent video explaining the difference between a coup and a mutiny, with the Wagner action clearly being a very low-quality example of the latter. My guess is that the Russian military really did order a strike against Wagner forces and this tipped Preghozin over the edge and he acted precipitously without any meaningful plan. I rather suspect that as he realized the weakness of his position (there was no way he could achieve any of his supposed goals) he was forced to settle for the illusion of a deal. Putin, meanwhile, as has often been his way, dithered during a critical time and no amount of propaganda after the fact will ever quite cover this up. It's always charming to sensationalize folly, but it doesn't lead to a better understanding of the dynamics at work.
It's harder when the amount of people involved is this small. Putin's own circle of people who can make real decisions is like 3-5 dudes. Pigozjin doesn't give interviews to a free press. It leaves us depending on speculation.
My hypothesis is that the trigger event was the MoD plans to make Wagner grunts sign russian MoD contracts directly. That would have been the start of a nationalization of Wagner and folding them into their control instead of an independent PMC. Which would have removed large chunks of Prigozjin's direct control and the Wagner troops themselves would have lost a lot of their benefits and comparatively high wages. Kreml and the MoD didn't expect Wagner to move this hard and this fast. And I think Prigozjin had hoped for a lot more other oligarchs and state security people to openly support him instead of waiting on the sideline.
Wagner, like any other PMC, doesn't have its own nation-state's worth of logistics and industrial support. The best hypothesis I've read is tha Wagner must have squirreled away supplies for months to be able to do this. Wagner could very well have taken Moscow from the coup defence units there, mostly police and interior troops from what we've seen. But sitting there and holding Moscow would have been shakier.
I'll have to see how much becomes true, but from Putin's announcements and the MoD's progression with the plan it sounds like this is still what they aim for. They want Wagner staff to be integrated in the other armed forces. I'll trust their announcements of exile in Belarus when we see Prigozjin and a Wagner base there, and when Wagner goons start signing those contracts. A wage from the MoD is still less than one from Wagner, but still more than most russians will ever have.
I found Perun because of his dominions 5 guides and the fact that other people know about him because he covers military content blows my mind.
It's like if you were watching markiplier and then you found out he has a play list about him being a heart surgeon.
@@timmyteehee9490 I had no idea Perun did gaming stuff.
@@timmyteehee9490perun is a propaganda channel. He was telling us Russia was running out of food, ammunition, men, etc, mirroring mainstream media. I wouldnt listen to him
Got one thing wrong, he didn't refuse to sign the contract they were making all PMCs sign. He signed it, and the Ministry of Defence building receptionist refused to take the contract from him, closed the window and fled, so he couldn't hand it in. Saying she told him that she could not take it from him.
Solid journalism, better than anything I've read elsewhere. Thanks cappy.. Solid journalism, better than anything I've read elsewhere. Thanks cappy..
Ur comment the same as @supwis
Cappy, this is the best break down so far that I have seen. I have been waiting for someone to release a video like this. I have been saying this same thing for days now. Excellent job!! Daym! Prigozhin, in my opinion, was absolutely attempting a coup, but did not pick up the steam he wanted on his way to Moscow and backed down. I have to make a grim prediction that Prigozhin will be deceased very soon. Well, he gave it one hell of a try! I fell kinda mixed by saying this, but I have some respect for Prigozhin, am I wrong? Seriously?
you aint really wrong. all Prigozhin want is that Putin heard his voice..
he just want his voice to be heard..
Putin or Russia isnt his real enemy, he just want to point his finger at some corrupt russian military generals and Defense Minister..
At the same time, Prigozhin is not a commander in official Russian military unit, its just a PMC or mercenery..
so its just normal for Putin or Defense Ministry to abandon him, let him alone..
He is not in the official chain of military command or structure, PMC is not a Russia military.. You cant blame Putin 100% too, he just want to secure Moskow and other russian cities from this wagner group as soon as possible
I kinda felt bad for Prigozhin at the end of the day,,
I don't think he's all that bad of a dude when you put him in perspective with Russian society and how people like him turn out. The dude literally laid the truth about the war out plain for all to see on more than one occasion. He was the only person who had the balls to say what everyone in the military was thinking when it came to the war and the leadership. I don't know the man personally and I can't tell you what kind of things he has or hasn't done in his life. What I can say is that judging by the the sample size of his videos and his actions here recently I think it's fair to have some respect for him. I mean he literally said Ukraine wasn't their enemy and that the war was started on false pretense. You won't hear that from anyone else in a Russian military uniform.....that's for sure.
Since the precipitating event appears to have been the attempt by the regular military to absorb Wagner, it looks like this was a turf battle that got out of hand. I’ve heard prigozhin isn’t the sharpest knife in the drawer, so it’s entirely possible he acted, half cocked, without thinking about the consequences.
My personal hypothesis is that he hoped for more direct support from other oligarchs, generals and state security folks. Interior and security troops didn't seriously contest the convoy but they didn't seem to join in either. Prigozjin talked like he had all of Wagner and thousands of federal armed forces deserters at his back, when he had maybe a 4-5000 Wagner staff at most.
Dude got shot out of the sky by Putin 😂
1 of the many things I enjoy about your videos is... they are smooth down to the last seconds of playing! You don't do stupid intros, lame ads or solos of stupidity, you just produce great content that's easy on the eyes/ears until the very end!!
I was SHOCKED when I saw the headline about them marching to Moscow!!
I was TWICE as shocked when I saw the headline that he was turning around!!! It seemed like another Kubrick/ Peter Sellers film!! NOW, I'll watch this and get some answers!❤
I think Prigozhin's story needs to be a movie.
Excellent analysis of this incredibly dramatic event. I imagine Prigozhin's life expectancy is extremely limited now.
Note to self: Make sure you have adequate air support when attempting a military coup d etat.
THIS! 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
My take away was be weary of restaurant owners.
@@TeeComedian Wow. That's the best you got? That doesn't even rate a rimshot, doody.
@@knoahbody69 I don't find him attractive, I just think it's funny.
Like if Gordon Ramsey was the founder of Blackwater.
Did he ever learn to fly, I heard he ran out of altitude, ideas at the same time
The lesson here is that never overestimate yourself
Props to the editor. The head on top of the jeep made me laugh, I don't know why but that "low effort" but well executed stuff always gets me.
Those kinds of details always crack me up too, they're small but pay off big
Yep lol his flabby face cracks me up
Reeeaaly starting to think it’s a head game and Putin and Prigozhin have been playing together to rapidly set up another front closer to Kyiv.
"There are two things you can't mess with when it comes to soldiers; you can't screw with their paycheck, and you can't screw with their chow."
This.
Their ammo supply.
@@censored4christ162 Fair enough 👍
That was hilarious when Prigozhin was criticizing the Russian MOD and generals of getting fat in their “offices full of red wood and expensive creams.” Truly the height of luxury in Russia 😂
My theory is that Prigozhin never stood a slightest chance taking over Moscow and he knew it. That deal was exactly what he wanted. But he got close and he knew that he could easily get pardon if he gets close. That made it look like that he got close to takeover (he did not). Props to him using Putin's deepest fear and trauma (uprising) to make him panic. And after this show, the world watches what happens to Prigozhin, so he can't really get Putinium-laced glowing tea or else he becomes a martyr.
lol@putinium, hadn't heard that before. Putonium-210, a deadly and jealous element.
I think your wrong about not standing a chance, all of Russia's capable units and equipment is in Ukraine.
@@505fastlife6 Moscow has a large number of military units stationed around it, although they do take part in the war they're never sent in their entirety. Not to mention the national guard units and the regular police force
He will be killed by FSB. He is really a threat to Russia
I wonder whether Pirghozin would still have called off the coup if he knew he was going to be assassinated and his mercenaries hunted?
As a Russian. Prigozhin said he never wanted problems with Putin what he was doing was to have the defence minister changed.
He probably thought he had a chance of being appointed defense minister himself. He obviously misjudged Putin. And at some point in the not so distant future he'll pay with his life for it.
Yeah, he seems like a fella who's trustworthy enough
Great video once again bro 5/5 , keep'em coming 🤜🤛and congratulation for 1million subs , your the man 🤜🤛
Someone from your team should contact CNN, ABC or someone else because you guys are AT LEAST as good as their teams. This is network quality writing and production and now is the time to team up with a network to ramp this up another major level. Real solid work folks!
Nobody should strive to be CNN
He is definitely miles ahead of western media outlets. No bias, and only gathered information. I see nothing twisted.
Major networks don't want this kind of factual reporting.
Task and Purpose takes a mere 18 minutes to properly explain the Prigozhin matter while other professional news outlets spend hundreds of 3 minute sound bites and fail at explaining anything. Thank goodness that Task & Purpose has been able to show to conventional news outlets how utterly inefficient and ineffective they are. Task & Purpose is a model of what news reporting SHOULD be.
particularly the military news
I tried so hard and got so far
But in the end we are no longer Wagner...
Russian here. A very good point at 14:51: "it didn't appear like Russian military leadership would change". Well, hello from 11 months later, our military leadership is going through an unexpectedly harsh purge right now.
This is legitimately one of, if not the best videos about the origins of Progozhin.
If you ask me, I think the reason we didn't see much of Russian Military join the Wagner column is the same severe, systemic apathy that has been conditioned into the Russian public for decades. It was easier (and probably safer) for them to turn their heads away and pretend it wasn't happening.
imagine. going from poor petty criminal, to chef then jump to multibillion$ warlord of what was perceived to be the 2nd most powerful military in the world (before it got its a$$ handed to it in Ukraine). then one day u enter the Stalingrad of Ukraine, somehow u win but then get the brilliant idea to march on the man that made u. then u pull an uno reverse card and 2 months later u find out the uno reverse card dosent really work in real life when u are shot out of the sky by a Russian air defense system
If he had actually planned a coup he must have been working with a group of Russian elites who backed out last minute. I don't see any chance Prigozhin is dumb enough to think a straight-up armed coup at the doorstep of the Kremlin would have a good result for him or Wagner. If it was a coup attempt, the coup may still be underway.
I think he had simply pushed his relationship with the military/Kremlin too far so he had already been planning for the worst for a few months. He probably (rightfully) felt that his wealth, power and life were threatened and that his soldiers would suffer a grim fate under direct military control.
If the airstrike against his troops did come from the military then all is neatly explained: The whole thing was just him finding a way to keep himself alive and keep Wagner & its troops; he wants to go back to Africa and continue operations there as they were before Ukraine. Now Belarus is building Wagner a base, which could also be convenient for Lukashenko in the face of an increasingly likely coup in his own country.
Long story short, I don't know what we saw, but I don't think it was a failed coup attempt.
Thanks for the Putin and Prigozhin. We cannot get that from anywhere except you bro. Thumb's up....
Well, to be honest I expected a Wagnerian opera, but it ended up being an elevator music or something. Guess now I know what anticlimax is :-)