Baron George RR Harkonnen finishing a dream of spring part 2 at a ripe age of 110 years releasing it to the postapocalyptic wasteland will be so worth the wait
This is the single greatest piece of media I have ever consumed. 10/10 no notes. It also crushed my hopes and dreams and I’ve lost my will to live. What a quandary.
@@AdmiralKird I still feel bad for Goerge, I personally still don't get the passion being exclusively about him finishing his book when so many other great content creators have had the same problem of not finishing something great. Clive Barker with his trilogy from Great and Secret Show. Phillip Pullman is struggling with age and health to finish his dark materials prequels. Remedy Studios making another Alan Wake game much much later. Kentaro Miura just passed away so now we will need to wait a while for the final chapter of Berserk, and I'm hoping fans wil be fair to however that ends. And who could forget the boomers suffereing through David Lynch coming back with another season of Twin Peaks?
I hate that all the posts on reddit, all blog posts and all interviews I remember reading and reading analysis about them. I've been stuck in limbo for almost two decades. @@AdmiralKird
@@paintingcube3853 the difference is simply the amount of fans. Lots of people are fans of GoT, even some that are not normally interested in the genre
The only thing this model was missing to be truly perfect was an actuarial projection of George's lifespan to go along with some of those pessimistic projections.
He would say 3/4 rather than 2/3 for the same reason I tell people I am 'on my way' when running late rather than the truth that I just got out of bed.
If TWOW comes out in 2032, then ADOS comes out in 2066, based on the increasing time gaps between each release, assuming GRRM lives to be 118 years old and doesn't slow down.
We could also add a ~1% chance that he was serious in offering to be imprisoned near a lake of acid, and then create a function to estimate how that will affect his writing speed and perhaps his decisions on whether he reeeeeeeaaaaally wants that extra chapter. To do this we must first consult the Psychological literature on the effects of chronic environmental stressors on demanding cognitive tasks and long-term risk/reward analysis...
lol, something similar dawned on me when I made my first video, or was it the second, because a freshman going to the same university as I had left me a comment, but then I realized while working on this they'd have long graduated by now.
You have no idea how much I wanted to tell you about this when I was working on it, but I was like ahhhhhh cards, close, to chest, too much, too long, too far, can't spill beans!
I recently stumbled upon a video from like 2008ish where the casting for GOT pilot was revealed. people said „looks good hope it’s not cancelled after one or two seasons, hbo tends to do that. But GRRM has to hurry up releasing the next books, it’s been like 3 years“ 😂😂😂 I reallythought that was a retrospective sarcastic comment, then saw „posted 14 years ago“ lolllll
I cannot believe it is actually here. Up until this point I was certain you were making a GRRM deadline joke. My hat is off, my jaw is on the floor and I'm ready for 1.5 hours of spreadsheets!!
In one of the preview chapters a guy goes on about being old and the effect on his outlook about the decision to go to war as winter sets in "for Ned's girl". He mentions how, looking back, the ideal age was six and twenty. When I first read that I was not yet 'six and twenty' myself. Now these years later, I already feel like I commiserate more with his aged self than a 'youngster' of six and twenty. And my version of 'Winter is coming and I'm off to die for Ned's girl' is "TWoW is not coming and we'll just see fanfic quality HBO adaptations as new asoaif content goes going forward."
He name is Hugo I named a wonderful bulldog after him that lived a full life and passed of old age. Same for me I wasn't yet 26, now I laugh under my breath and remember when I could fight all day and f...all night
Martin is 75, turning 76 in September. I know wealth can buy almost anything, but can't make him younger. Not saying his dying, but naturally slower, less sharp. In April 2032 it was going to be 83, so i think if The Winds of winter is not finished around 2027-28 the series is never gonna be finished. Let's be honest with yourselves, what is more "interesting" for martin legacy, ending disappointing fashion like the Tv-show or letting the fans think that in books everything would be different and better, even perfect. Would be classic martin, the last slap in the face. The thing is, he put the SOIAF on the highest standard ever for a novel, he can't reach the expectation of decades of theories, exacting and frustration that he is blamed for. If he finished the novel alright but before the Tv-show would be ok, now if he fails his legacy is hurt, and you can see that Mr. Martin has a huge ego about what legacy he's gonna leave.
Tbh insane pressure from public doesnt help either. Maybe dude writes entire arc of character starts thinking what would public say and scraps it because it doesnt feel perfect enough
Once the TV show ended without Martin having at least finished Winds of Winter, I knew the book series would never be completed. There is just no way you can realistically expect him to finish the story at the pace he’s writing at. But if the TV show didn’t exist, he probably would have finished both books in 5 to 6 years with Dream of Spring releasing in 2020/2021
@ibi7928 sorry I meant tilting in the pinball context 😅 as in like hoping/ having the most positive take/ way if seeing it possible. Not that you should be mad!
>April 1, 2032 >GRRM announces TWOW is being released two days ahead of schedule >It releases >It's just Season 6 of Game of Thrones >"Haha, April Fool's! I'm still writing TWOW" >April 3, 2032 >TWOW actually releases >It's just Season 7 of Game of Thrones
Brings me back to that Preston Jacobs video where he points out that, based on GRRM’s blogs, GRRM could have wrote literally nothing between the release of Dance and they beginning of COVID. 6 years of writing, and the amount he claims he wrote didn’t meaningfully change.
This is my thought too. It’s gonna be the biggest literary hoax of all time. It will be like the end of The Shining but in wordstar. All the sample chapters were just stuff that didn’t fit into Dance and he hasn’t written a single word of Winds
I approve this evolution of the fandom. Instead of theory crafting in-book stuff using logic & piecing things together, we've moved on to making real world theories using statistical analysis. Do I want a similar video for DoS? Absolutely!
This was hilariously, absurdly meticulous. An absolute gem of a video that will live on through the ages. I was dying laughing during the fivethirtyeight segue.
OK Just finished it: -- As a comp sci/computability/math nerd I just have to say how impressed I am. -- Mozart's requiem was so appropriate. My last shred of hope is now ded. -- Thank you so much for this unique content. Content creators like you are the real heros of this 13yr thirsty fandom. 💜
This feels like having a glass candle and knowing that in my future I’ll be speared by a ballista bolt and then being SHOOK when I finally get impaled by said ballista bolt
@AdmiralKird Question because I might be misunderstanding something: this model is not predicting when TWOW will come out, correct? What it's actually predicting is (let's say) when 'A Dream of Winter' will come out. George doesn't need ~1k Manuscript pages to finish TWOW, because ~500 of those pages will, inevitably, get pushed to [book seven which also inevitably will not be ADOS]. He doesn't need to write all 1,000 pages to realise this, as soon as he gets close enough the problem will solidify for him and he'll have to deal with splitting the book again. That split itself might take him a bit to come to terms with but it doesn't really require much longform writing, more so tinkering around the edges of what he's now already got to make sure it actually fits into a book like structure. So that ten years to go figure is not a date for TWOW coming out, it's a date for when George will be up to the same *point in the story* that he currently thinks will be the end of TWOW, which is probably early into the book currently titled ADOS. Is this understanding right or wrong? I got a bit lost in the sauce by the end here.
I think you hit the nail on the head that what we understand TWOW to be today, may not be what people consider to be TWOW if a split does occur. It's something to get into more at a later date, I hope. What I consider to be TWOW right now that the model is predicting is if there is no deviation from the current pathway and GRRM resists splitting what he considers to be "TWOW" in his head right now.
@@AdmiralKird at this point, though, aren't these assumptions really hurting the system? Isn't "how long will it take for GRRM to write another 1000 pages" useless, since we basicaly know for a fact that's not a good predictor of when he'll finish Winds?
yeah I was thinking the same. If we get TWOW as one book I’ll be incredibly surprised. I think it’s much more likely we get something closer to 1600 pages that’s essentially TWOW part 1. Would be nice to run the calculation for that but assumably it’s more like 5 rather than 10 years off
convinced these calcs took five years and AK was sitting in his basement collecting dust the entire time. The computer dinged to show it was complete and he awoke from his slumber.
I remember watching your first video adressing TWOW back when I was in junior high. I’m 1 year deep into college now 😂 Somehow you came back before the winter came
I appreciate this counterbalancing the people predicting it’ll come out this year or next, and it’s entertaining and well thought out. That said, I don’t think I fully agree with the assumption that we can easily extrapolate from past book splits how long we have left in this book. This seems like an aspect that could be much more variable and I suspect at this stage in the series he’d be less likely to add as much as he did in the past. It could be he’s stuck in the same pattern, but I don’t think it should be assumed.
Alright, now I've finished this masterpiece there are 3 key factors that disrupt the prediction. These things you or I can't possibly ever know for sure but it's worth considering. Mainly, for cope. 1. We don't know for sure his different speeds of writing when he's rewriting, writing new pages, editing existing pages, combining POVs etc. The point being we don't actually KNOW what stage he's at with the remaining pages. As others have pointed out, does he have 1150 draft or completed pages? If they're all completed pages, does he have another 500-600 draft pages that he needs to wrap up? Will this be done in 6 months or 6 years? 2. Related to this - George could be lying about, exaggerating, or underestimating the current number of pages he has written or the current number of pages he has left to write. Understandably, you've had to figure out the best guess for numbers based on his different interviews and past behavior. Even still, we don't actually know. 3. Will there come a point where George puts a bow on what's he's written so far and edits it for publishing? The remaining story left to be told for TWOW will be turned into a new "A Dream for Spring" to be released in the 2030s and maybe the final book will be the "A Time for Wolves" he originally wanted. This 3rd and final point is the ultimate cope for fans that think The Winds of Winter is being released this year or next year. If George announces the book in the near future he's either been deceitful about the progress he's made or he's decided to split the manuscript and publishes what he has.
1. I would say the partial pages don't really matter because there will always be partials floating around. I know one time in the writing of Dance he did have A LOT of pages in partial format for an extended period of time. However, this happened once, and he tends to post on his blog about positive progress during periods he's having positive progress. This hasn't really happened for two years now so it's unlikely to me the past few years were another event like this. 2. There was another draft of the video where I said something like "I don't know if George can do fractions properly. I think he can count the pages, though. I mean... if he can't count the pages than... I don't know what [I can do]." 3. I think he could split it, but it's still not likely to happen for a few years, depending on how much has been written since 2022.
@@AdmiralKird Okay so the 1100-1200 is 100% completed, and the rest of the time has been spent on drafts. Otherwise I guess nothing about his interviews would add up. His fractions could be referring to any version of Winds and will just drive you crazy trying to puzzle out. It's best ignoring that. That "1150" number is likely mostly just the leftovers from Dance and the burst of writing he did during the pandemic. The rest of his time is all partials and rewrites. But then that makes we wonder - and I'd love to see this addressed if you ever do a follow up - will George ever be happy with Winds? The only way we see any version of Winds is if he forces himself or is compelled to tie off his progress so far, publish, and start afresh with a "new" 7th book. That 7th book (The "what he actually needs" column) will likely be done very close to your 2032 prediction, which could end up being scarily accurate. Otherwise, we get nothing.
I used to be on team "finish the damn book George" but a while ago I saw something here on yt where he does a tour of Santa Fe with the actress who played Shae, Sibel Kekilli. And while he is a total glutton and has zero self discipline, you could see in the documentary that he is such a nice person, a kind old soul to the world. Crawl on at your glacial, testudinal speed George, I just can't be mad at you.
"Zero self discipline" is a wild thing to say about a person who has accomplished more than most ever will. I agree with your recent revelation that he is, in fact, a human being.
I think people just over inflate his personal importance of ASOIAF. It's his bread and butter don't get me wrong but Martin is a classic hippie leftist. His MO was NEVER what other people wanted or told him to do. Dudes written and published quite a few books even though ASOIAF is unfinished and he's had a whole career of TV writing. Even by the time he wrote GOT he had a full career and life path set for him. All GOT the TV show really did was LAUNCH this already fairly wealthy successful writer into obscene wealth
>Release date is next decade >planning on joining military after university >global tensions increasing I’m going to be dead by the time that fucking book releases aren’t I
Listening to Gurm talk about TWOW is like listening to that kid in class who'd continue to ask for homework extensions, then fail to meet that extension and ask for another then fail to meet it again and again. Like me. Gurm is literally me. AMA
@@acs7167 I have a written clause in my will that stipulates that if I die before my homework is finished then my dog shall rip the unfinished homework to shreds.
@@zypalitra8080 What happens if the school expels you before and when you die your legacy is remembered as being a lazy hippie fraud who never turned their homework in? lmao
Wow wow wow that's crazy, your thumbnail style instantly reminded me of your 'can winds of winter fit into winds of winter' video from 5 years ago because of how much I liked that video.
Another possibility: does 3/4th mean 3/4s of completed final draft pages? It could mean 3/4s are in rough drafts, it could also mean 3/4s of the POVs are completed
I know you accounted for the difference in writing pace already, but I feel like 108.48 pages per year is heavily weighted down in a time where he just literally wasn't working on the book at all and the 200 pages that existed were all just left over pages cut from Dance. The last couple of years it's closer to 200 pages per year. While I know that still has it being around 2029, I'm still pumped that it'll be announced next week at Worldcon 😁
Whenever I see these kinds of videos on ASOIAF or TWOW, I can't help but revel and delight myself in what goes on in the comment section. The amounts of hope, humour as coping mechanism, nihilism, regret, senseless optimism, cynicism, gaslighting, rage, apathy, despair. All beautifully mixed in the cauldron of tragedy that is the ASOIAF fandom, and then the maniacal laughter that ensues after. So even if we never get TWOW, I consider myself indulged from the hours and hours of entertainment that this community has given me.🤣 Also, I need that 14:21 "AH NO!!" on repeat as my new ringtone and I am willing to pay exactly $2.99 for it, cheers!😂💀
Okay. Here's the conclusion I get from this. Martin did a very noble thing trying to write a book series that was as long and large as his imagination would allow it. I truly admire it, but it just seems like the limitations of time are always there and you can't escape them. Martin studied journalism in university but said he struggled with the profession's tight deadlines. Speaking as a journalist, I can say that tight deadlines are powerful tools because they force writing into existence. Trying to craft a perfect story is a very nice thing in theory, but I think we all would prefer a imperfect story that exists to a perfect one that doesn't.
I would prefer a somewhat imperfect ending to a no-ending. But I don't prefer any ''imperfect story'' ending over no-ending. If i prefered that, i would be fine with the show's ending. But I don't. I hate it. Be careful with what you wish. It is okay if he doesn't finish it. There are many book series unfinished. There are many works of art unfinished. It's okay. The books already published have more value, relevance and influence in itself than most book series in the history of literature. No-ending is dissappointing. A bad ending can destroy the entire legacy of his work.
Exactly! Perfect comment. I think Mr. Martin became a hostage of his own utopia, of his own perfectionism. A utopia should serve us to walk through the best human possible, not to freeze us in infinity possibilities.
@@angelamengualcortinas3614who says an imperfect ending is bad? What is bad is never ending because your are either afraid of hurting your legacy (ego) or to try to put your name on history, "the never ending novel" "would be much better than the show" "would be perfect". He can't reach the expectation he put into the SOIAF, impossible. Any ending or no-ending is gonna be imperfect.
Thanks! And yeah... when you don't have a natural end point (HOTD S2), I'm not sure using a montage makes up for it... It... works... and looked nice, but leaves something to be desired.
I have been subscribed to your channel for like 5 years in the hope you will return. I'm very happy! It's kinda fitting though, that after I waited so long for you, you are talking about what we all have been waiting for for even longer.
@@AdmiralKird You can't really calculate GRRM like that. He has phases, where he writes a lot to not writing at all. I had a lot of fun watching your video though, and it does make sense, that he has to split the book in two. I think your proof for that is very solid.
@@morgenstern2603 The phases don't matter at all though. If he writes for 200 per year for five years out of ten and nothing in the other 5, and someone says that he therefore wrote about 100 pages per year than which of the two formulas will tell you how long it took? 5x200+5x0 or 100x10? It's the same, ten years.
@@AdmiralKird Can you really judge humans like that though? Preston made this video, like 2 years ago, where he said it is likely, that George didn't start writing until the pandemic, and the things he had done before where mostly left-overs from DwD. I love statistics. I'm weird like that. I just think GRRM is too erratic for this. The book could be done next year, in 2032, or never. Your estimate is not the worst outcome. Never would be :) To put that to math: If GRRM didn't write for 10 years, and has now been writing for 5, and would be half done, can we then conclude, that it takes another 15 years, or isn't it possible, that he will finish in the next 5, if he continues writing?
Let's see, 8 years from now GRRM will be 83. I guess A Dream of Spring, which he said will not be the next book he writes after TWOW, will come out in 2048, when GRRM is 98. Easy!
Thank you very much this video. This is the first of your videos I’ve ever seen. I appreciate the huge amount of time and effort you’ve given to make this. As a fan of a song of ice and fire, I’m always looking for information. Although I did not laugh at any of your jokes, I absolutely appreciate the levity in a video of this length, and of this nature. Once again, thank you again for your time and your hard work.
oh my god, i was just rewatching your old video (i watched it originally idk how many years ago) and i was wondering when you're to upload again, and now you've done it after 5 years.... WELCOME BACK KING!
I will note though, if it followa the "A Feast for Dragons" route then we probably will be getting a TWOW version of Feast. So a new book before 2032 in that case, but only the second one in 2032.
I was sure you were gonna say something like 2028, and was already hopeless. Honestly thought you was joking when you said 2032. Time to go cry myself to sleep.
This is an amazing video - there's just one thing I'm slightly confused about and I admit it's probably a misunderstanding on my part - the model using expected POV chapter counts vs actual POV chapter counts seems to rely on the fact that a Feast of Dragons wasn't 'released' until Feast for Crows AND Dance of Dragons were both released. While that is technically true, we DID have a Feast for Crows as a book release six years before Dance came out, we didn't have to wait 11 years from Storm of Swords release until Dance of Dragon's release for 'the next book' to come out where the data used for this model seems to imply we did? Likewise it seems like the model is using data that assumes that any book is not actually finished until the chapters written in it but bumped actually appear in the next book, and what's actually happening is what he's written so far is reorganized to be releasable sooner and missing manuscript pages he's instead moving to the next (sometimes a new invented) book. If this is the case, then a book that actually comes out next is actually coming out much sooner than the date you specified, just the actual scope of 'Winds of Winter' as it exists in George's mind as a complete entity is going to end up being two books long, and the estimated date of the NEXT book after Wind's release is 2032 (which seems optimistic, but following the logic on iteratively the same would happen again, so half of that book would be pushed back and so on ad infinitum. one would expect this pattern to start diminishing as he draws to the end, or the story would be of an infinite length) In short, I don't think from what I understand this tells us anything about when 'the next book' will come out since this method of prediction would have resulted in double the actual wait for someone awaiting the next ASOIAF book after Storm of Swords, and I think 'the next book' will still be called The Winds of Winter even if the actual plot of the story intended for Winds ends shorter than he's currently envisioning with material moved either to ADOS or an invented next book to finish off what he originally planned for Winds. The maths is complicated so forgive me if I've misunderstood something but this is the impression I got from the explanation.
-starts outta nowhere
-creates three excellent videos
-dissapears for five years for no reason
-Comes back with a masterpiece
A true G.R.R.M protege
See y'all in 6 years for another banger video
@@mrskhan5524 this made me laugh way to hard 😂
least powerful G.R.R.M apprentice
@mrskhan5524 It'd the Boyhood of ASOIAF videos. It took 5 years to make!
😂😂😂😂
Man took a half decade vacation and still came back before Winds.
😂😂🤣
Competing against a stand still
😂
I’ve never been so simultaneously impressed and emotionally devastated in my entire life.
George probably saw this video pop up in the middle of his writing and took a break to watch lmao
XDDDDDD
For a year lol
The funniest thing GRRM could do now is announce the release.
come on george... it would be so funny... george...
what if you… released TWOW… next week.. aha ha, just kidding.. unless..?
Hahahaha so would! 👀…ha…haha…… 👀
Martin and Rothfuss announce their books at the same time for the same day
Oh yes that would be funny but unlikely
1:31:16 "As far I know this is considered a dead channel."
WHAT IS DEAD MAY NEVER DIE
BUT RISES AGAIN STRONGER
But rises again harder and stronger
WHAT IS DEAD MAY NEVER DIEEEEE
😂😂😂 good comment
Baron George RR Harkonnen finishing a dream of spring part 2 at a ripe age of 110 years releasing it to the postapocalyptic wasteland will be so worth the wait
😂😂😂
My throne, my Westeros, my dragons.
Editors: "What about the unfinished characters?"
Baron George RR Harkonnen: "Kill them all."
You have a wonderful kitchen cousin ~ baron george rr martin
Maybe the real TWOW is the statistical models we made along the way.
This is the single greatest piece of media I have ever consumed. 10/10 no notes. It also crushed my hopes and dreams and I’ve lost my will to live. What a quandary.
Truly a life changing, potentially life ending experience
George gonna watch this and go “sweet, got 8 more years let’s fkn go”
Plenty of new side characters and subplots he can invent now.
GRRM just added an extra year of writing because of that voice you gave him
🤣🤣🤣
LMAO
We laugh because it’s true…
Come on George, we’ve resorted to making hour and a half long videos with complicated algebraic equations to calculate your writing at this point.
And the soup's temperature (that's an old r/asoiaf reference there).
@@AdmiralKird the fact that I understood that reference is seriously telling ngl
@@AdmiralKird I still feel bad for Goerge, I personally still don't get the passion being exclusively about him finishing his book when so many other great content creators have had the same problem of not finishing something great.
Clive Barker with his trilogy from Great and Secret Show.
Phillip Pullman is struggling with age and health to finish his dark materials prequels.
Remedy Studios making another Alan Wake game much much later.
Kentaro Miura just passed away so now we will need to wait a while for the final chapter of Berserk, and I'm hoping fans wil be fair to however that ends.
And who could forget the boomers suffereing through David Lynch coming back with another season of Twin Peaks?
I hate that all the posts on reddit, all blog posts and all interviews I remember reading and reading analysis about them. I've been stuck in limbo for almost two decades. @@AdmiralKird
@@paintingcube3853 the difference is simply the amount of fans. Lots of people are fans of GoT, even some that are not normally interested in the genre
AdmiralKird adopted the 5 year gap for personal use after George abandoned it.
Alright, you win.
TWOW forecasting has basically become a scientific discipline at this point.
Other than peer review what else does he need to be considered for a scientific journal?
A fool's errand, more like
More a matter of faith
1:27:00 Imagine waiting 21 years for TWOW, just to read Rem Lhazar POV chapters. I could not guarantee for the safety of anyone in my vicinity.
for real 😂
9/11
We'll have people in the fandom in their teens and very early twenties that have been born after the release of ADWD
The only thing this model was missing to be truly perfect was an actuarial projection of George's lifespan to go along with some of those pessimistic projections.
😂
He would say 3/4 rather than 2/3 for the same reason I tell people I am 'on my way' when running late rather than the truth that I just got out of bed.
If TWOW comes out in 2032, then ADOS comes out in 2066, based on the increasing time gaps between each release, assuming GRRM lives to be 118 years old and doesn't slow down.
And what if he slows down? Just asking..
@@albertnewtonify It'll be done around 2100 roughly
We could also add a ~1% chance that he was serious in offering to be imprisoned near a lake of acid, and then create a function to estimate how that will affect his writing speed and perhaps his decisions on whether he reeeeeeeaaaaally wants that extra chapter. To do this we must first consult the Psychological literature on the effects of chronic environmental stressors on demanding cognitive tasks and long-term risk/reward analysis...
I think I want this comment on my wall.
I was in 9th grade when your first winds of winter video came out, I am now finishing uni
lol, something similar dawned on me when I made my first video, or was it the second, because a freshman going to the same university as I had left me a comment, but then I realized while working on this they'd have long graduated by now.
You are going to be a grandparent or grand-grandparent till next book...meaning he dies, someone finish his story.
Me too man💀
Yea
@@HodajuciParadoks By someone you mean GRRMOfficialAI, right?
nothing could have prepared me for the belly laugh and subsequent hit of depression that was the release date reveal
Seriously made the grin that I had from that stupidly complex, nerdy excel sheet go stale on my face 😂😬😒
Just finished this analytical behemoth. Fantastic video but... it's Georgover.
Lord Haven, would you be so kind to consider making a sort of response video to this analysys?
Your HOTD videos are great btw.
A maniacal laugh escaped me when you unveiled the date.
THE RETURN OF THE KING
Came here to say this, love your channel too
You have no idea how much I wanted to tell you about this when I was working on it, but I was like ahhhhhh cards, close, to chest, too much, too long, too far, can't spill beans!
@@AdmiralKird Honestly glad you didn't, what an excellent surprise!
@@AdmiralKirdA surprise to be sure, but a welcome one.
What's funny is I was about to show a friend his old stuff, and then see our man came to us when we needed him most.
I actually laughed out loud at the result, it went beyond my pessimistic guess, great content
broke: excited for HOTD finale
woke: excited for AdmiralKird video
I love you Dragon Show talking man
Holy shit is gleorge d d ustin
I am graced by your presence 'o one who hath touched god.
Instant sub based on this comment alone.
EDIT: Last video: 5 years ago. And Winds still isn't out.
You guys gotta get kird on the final episode of dragon time!
1:24:36 So you're saying there's a
*chance* it comes out in 2026 ? Splendid.
I lost it at “we need a NOSTRAMARTIN”. I fucking love your videos, rewatch them when I’m feeling down (4 days a week)
same here
"It's going to say 2030 and I am going to get crushed"
"Math nerds send their regards" *twists the knife*
😭😭😭
We got a new video from AdmiralKird before TWoW.
5 years to produce 1 and a half hours of video content, still a quicker writer than GRRM
AdmiralKird? a presence I've not felt since...
I used a lot of red arrows for you.
@@AdmiralKird I am proud, my son.
I'm glad you are here. I just send the link to Preston and was about to send it to you. Can you two discuss this in a Podcast?
@@OfficialRedTeamReview this is in my hall of fame for youtube comment interactions lol
...since "AdmiralKird", the new limited streaming series available NOW on Disney+!
I recently stumbled upon a video from like 2008ish where the casting for GOT pilot was revealed. people said „looks good hope it’s not cancelled after one or two seasons, hbo tends to do that. But GRRM has to hurry up releasing the next books, it’s been like 3 years“ 😂😂😂 I reallythought that was a retrospective sarcastic comment, then saw „posted 14 years ago“ lolllll
🤣🤣🤣
I cannot believe it is actually here. Up until this point I was certain you were making a GRRM deadline joke. My hat is off, my jaw is on the floor and I'm ready for 1.5 hours of spreadsheets!!
Stuff that happens before TWOW:
-GTA VI
-Opeth are back at making metal music
-I find a girlfriend (let's hope)
The last one's not happening
The person who seeks a girlfriend will never find a girlfriend. The surest way to find one is to just live your life naturally. Don't force it.
@@HOTD108_ that's what i've been doing so far. no intent of changing that
DOn't listen to the haters. Get that woman!
holy shit opeth
In one of the preview chapters a guy goes on about being old and the effect on his outlook about the decision to go to war as winter sets in "for Ned's girl". He mentions how, looking back, the ideal age was six and twenty. When I first read that I was not yet 'six and twenty' myself. Now these years later, I already feel like I commiserate more with his aged self than a 'youngster' of six and twenty. And my version of 'Winter is coming and I'm off to die for Ned's girl' is "TWoW is not coming and we'll just see fanfic quality HBO adaptations as new asoaif content goes going forward."
Wanda Sykes used to say the same thing too. She had less of a romantic way of putting it, but the same sentiment.
The name of the character who said this is Hugo Wull
He name is Hugo I named a wonderful bulldog after him that lived a full life and passed of old age. Same for me I wasn't yet 26, now I laugh under my breath and remember when I could fight all day and f...all night
Martin is 75, turning 76 in September. I know wealth can buy almost anything, but can't make him younger. Not saying his dying, but naturally slower, less sharp. In April 2032 it was going to be 83, so i think if The Winds of winter is not finished around 2027-28 the series is never gonna be finished.
Let's be honest with yourselves, what is more "interesting" for martin legacy, ending disappointing fashion like the Tv-show or letting the fans think that in books everything would be different and better, even perfect. Would be classic martin, the last slap in the face.
The thing is, he put the SOIAF on the highest standard ever for a novel, he can't reach the expectation of decades of theories, exacting and frustration that he is blamed for. If he finished the novel alright but before the Tv-show would be ok, now if he fails his legacy is hurt, and you can see that Mr. Martin has a huge ego about what legacy he's gonna leave.
Tbh insane pressure from public doesnt help either.
Maybe dude writes entire arc of character starts thinking what would public say and scraps it because it doesnt feel perfect enough
Once the TV show ended without Martin having at least finished Winds of Winter, I knew the book series would never be completed.
There is just no way you can realistically expect him to finish the story at the pace he’s writing at.
But if the TV show didn’t exist, he probably would have finished both books in 5 to 6 years with Dream of Spring releasing in 2020/2021
This is simultaneously the best & most disheartening video I’ve ever watched. Winds 2024 till I die
KEEP TILTING
@@sama2086 I’m not tilting the vid is gas I’m just delusional 😭
@ibi7928 sorry I meant tilting in the pinball context 😅 as in like hoping/ having the most positive take/ way if seeing it possible. Not that you should be mad!
This video is a treat for the ten people who are both ASOIAF fans and Creating Rem Lazar fans.
May we all hold hands and sing against the wall of a barn somewhere.
sucks how this video will already be outdated tonight when Winds is announced in the HotD post credit scene
That is the largest cope I've ever heard.
If this happens, I will bank transfer you $10,000
George appears from the shadows:
“Rhaenyra… You think you're the only Prince who was Promised in the world? You've become part of a bigger universe…”
You saw this in the flame?
It is known.
It’s also copium, but I’m huffing right along with you.
>April 1, 2032
>GRRM announces TWOW is being released two days ahead of schedule
>It releases
>It's just Season 6 of Game of Thrones
>"Haha, April Fool's! I'm still writing TWOW"
>April 3, 2032
>TWOW actually releases
>It's just Season 7 of Game of Thrones
When the world needed him most he returned
Brings me back to that Preston Jacobs video where he points out that, based on GRRM’s blogs, GRRM could have wrote literally nothing between the release of Dance and they beginning of COVID. 6 years of writing, and the amount he claims he wrote didn’t meaningfully change.
It probably changed some, its just impossible to really tell because he made very sporadic blog posts in there and is fairly closed off in information
This is my thought too. It’s gonna be the biggest literary hoax of all time. It will be like the end of The Shining but in wordstar. All the sample chapters were just stuff that didn’t fit into Dance and he hasn’t written a single word of Winds
3:24 “I’m not here to ruin your optimism, I’m here to destroy your happiness” 😂
I approve this evolution of the fandom. Instead of theory crafting in-book stuff using logic & piecing things together, we've moved on to making real world theories using statistical analysis. Do I want a similar video for DoS? Absolutely!
AdmiralKird is a lot like GRRM. He ain't releasing videos often but when he does it's pretty damn good
Oof. It's so sad realizing that the only ending we will likely ever have for GRRM's masterpiece is season 8 of GoT.
That GRRM impersonation is hilarious
Brilliant
he sounds like an English anime dub lol it's fantastic
@@edwardwelsh3202 that or a slightly off gilbert gottfried
I thought it was Deku
Sounds like a yugioh abridged character
I did not expect Rem Lezar to show up in this. For anyone who doesn't know him he's responsible for 9/11.
Rem Lezar CAN melt steel beams.
😂
i'm confused how?
@@SuperstitiousWolf With the power of imagination.
Funnily enough I thought winds would come out before the next Admiral video
1:24:48 Don’t know why it’s called the pessimistic model, thinking George is going to live until the age of 102 is extremely optimistic.
I still don't know wtf a manuscript page is after watching these videos for years
It's basically like if you opened up Word and set it to "Triple Space" the sentences and typed away.
The real manuscript pages were the friends we made along the way
This was hilariously, absurdly meticulous. An absolute gem of a video that will live on through the ages. I was dying laughing during the fivethirtyeight segue.
OK Just finished it:
-- As a comp sci/computability/math nerd I just have to say how impressed I am.
-- Mozart's requiem was so appropriate. My last shred of hope is now ded.
-- Thank you so much for this unique content. Content creators like you are the real heros of this 13yr thirsty fandom.
💜
Thank you, I am very appreciative of the fact you left this kind comment and also noticed the... detail.
This feels like having a glass candle and knowing that in my future I’ll be speared by a ballista bolt and then being SHOOK when I finally get impaled by said ballista bolt
@AdmiralKird
Question because I might be misunderstanding something: this model is not predicting when TWOW will come out, correct? What it's actually predicting is (let's say) when 'A Dream of Winter' will come out. George doesn't need ~1k Manuscript pages to finish TWOW, because ~500 of those pages will, inevitably, get pushed to [book seven which also inevitably will not be ADOS]. He doesn't need to write all 1,000 pages to realise this, as soon as he gets close enough the problem will solidify for him and he'll have to deal with splitting the book again. That split itself might take him a bit to come to terms with but it doesn't really require much longform writing, more so tinkering around the edges of what he's now already got to make sure it actually fits into a book like structure.
So that ten years to go figure is not a date for TWOW coming out, it's a date for when George will be up to the same *point in the story* that he currently thinks will be the end of TWOW, which is probably early into the book currently titled ADOS. Is this understanding right or wrong? I got a bit lost in the sauce by the end here.
I think you hit the nail on the head that what we understand TWOW to be today, may not be what people consider to be TWOW if a split does occur. It's something to get into more at a later date, I hope. What I consider to be TWOW right now that the model is predicting is if there is no deviation from the current pathway and GRRM resists splitting what he considers to be "TWOW" in his head right now.
@@AdmiralKird at this point, though, aren't these assumptions really hurting the system? Isn't "how long will it take for GRRM to write another 1000 pages" useless, since we basicaly know for a fact that's not a good predictor of when he'll finish Winds?
yeah I was thinking the same. If we get TWOW as one book I’ll be incredibly surprised. I think it’s much more likely we get something closer to 1600 pages that’s essentially TWOW part 1. Would be nice to run the calculation for that but assumably it’s more like 5 rather than 10 years off
@@AdmiralKird Thanks for the reply and clarifying! Looking forward to the follow up, some very interesting stuff.
convinced these calcs took five years and AK was sitting in his basement collecting dust the entire time. The computer dinged to show it was complete and he awoke from his slumber.
I had so many nuts stashed in my cheek pouches from that hiberation. You would not believe.
I remember watching your first video adressing TWOW back when I was in junior high. I’m 1 year deep into college now 😂 Somehow you came back before the winter came
my man materialized, dropped 2 of the most fresh at the time asoiaf videos, bounced for a few years and came back with a fucking math problem
I never gave up hope. I always knew you would come back. Truly a glorious day 🥲🥲
I appreciate this counterbalancing the people predicting it’ll come out this year or next, and it’s entertaining and well thought out. That said, I don’t think I fully agree with the assumption that we can easily extrapolate from past book splits how long we have left in this book. This seems like an aspect that could be much more variable and I suspect at this stage in the series he’d be less likely to add as much as he did in the past. It could be he’s stuck in the same pattern, but I don’t think it should be assumed.
I will address this further in the next video.
Sheesh we got the Admiral Kird renaissance before Wild Cards Volume XXXIII - House Rules
love your videos 🙌🙌
Love your videos❤
Alright, now I've finished this masterpiece there are 3 key factors that disrupt the prediction. These things you or I can't possibly ever know for sure but it's worth considering. Mainly, for cope.
1. We don't know for sure his different speeds of writing when he's rewriting, writing new pages, editing existing pages, combining POVs etc. The point being we don't actually KNOW what stage he's at with the remaining pages. As others have pointed out, does he have 1150 draft or completed pages? If they're all completed pages, does he have another 500-600 draft pages that he needs to wrap up? Will this be done in 6 months or 6 years?
2. Related to this - George could be lying about, exaggerating, or underestimating the current number of pages he has written or the current number of pages he has left to write. Understandably, you've had to figure out the best guess for numbers based on his different interviews and past behavior. Even still, we don't actually know.
3. Will there come a point where George puts a bow on what's he's written so far and edits it for publishing? The remaining story left to be told for TWOW will be turned into a new "A Dream for Spring" to be released in the 2030s and maybe the final book will be the "A Time for Wolves" he originally wanted.
This 3rd and final point is the ultimate cope for fans that think The Winds of Winter is being released this year or next year.
If George announces the book in the near future he's either been deceitful about the progress he's made or he's decided to split the manuscript and publishes what he has.
1. I would say the partial pages don't really matter because there will always be partials floating around. I know one time in the writing of Dance he did have A LOT of pages in partial format for an extended period of time. However, this happened once, and he tends to post on his blog about positive progress during periods he's having positive progress. This hasn't really happened for two years now so it's unlikely to me the past few years were another event like this.
2. There was another draft of the video where I said something like "I don't know if George can do fractions properly. I think he can count the pages, though. I mean... if he can't count the pages than... I don't know what [I can do]."
3. I think he could split it, but it's still not likely to happen for a few years, depending on how much has been written since 2022.
@@AdmiralKird Okay so the 1100-1200 is 100% completed, and the rest of the time has been spent on drafts. Otherwise I guess nothing about his interviews would add up.
His fractions could be referring to any version of Winds and will just drive you crazy trying to puzzle out. It's best ignoring that.
That "1150" number is likely mostly just the leftovers from Dance and the burst of writing he did during the pandemic. The rest of his time is all partials and rewrites.
But then that makes we wonder - and I'd love to see this addressed if you ever do a follow up - will George ever be happy with Winds?
The only way we see any version of Winds is if he forces himself or is compelled to tie off his progress so far, publish, and start afresh with a "new" 7th book.
That 7th book (The "what he actually needs" column) will likely be done very close to your 2032 prediction, which could end up being scarily accurate. Otherwise, we get nothing.
I used to be on team "finish the damn book George" but a while ago I saw something here on yt where he does a tour of Santa Fe with the actress who played Shae, Sibel Kekilli. And while he is a total glutton and has zero self discipline, you could see in the documentary that he is such a nice person, a kind old soul to the world. Crawl on at your glacial, testudinal speed George, I just can't be mad at you.
"Zero self discipline" is a wild thing to say about a person who has accomplished more than most ever will. I agree with your recent revelation that he is, in fact, a human being.
I think people just over inflate his personal importance of ASOIAF. It's his bread and butter don't get me wrong but Martin is a classic hippie leftist. His MO was NEVER what other people wanted or told him to do. Dudes written and published quite a few books even though ASOIAF is unfinished and he's had a whole career of TV writing. Even by the time he wrote GOT he had a full career and life path set for him. All GOT the TV show really did was LAUNCH this already fairly wealthy successful writer into obscene wealth
No. Get your act together George and write the damn book...
I agree.
Let him have his fun.
With no *Word of God* ending each fan can come up with their own, which is gloriously democratic.
@@keegan112099 I just hope that he has plans on how to finish the series if he passes away, I feel like his work deserves to be finished
>Release date is next decade
>planning on joining military after university
>global tensions increasing
I’m going to be dead by the time that fucking book releases aren’t I
Good luck in the trenches my friend. Also happy another global economic crisis.
or rising the ranks and have too much going on to read a fantasy book
At least you'll be an officer straight out of boot camp if you have a bachelor's
Listening to Gurm talk about TWOW is like listening to that kid in class who'd continue to ask for homework extensions, then fail to meet that extension and ask for another then fail to meet it again and again. Like me. Gurm is literally me. AMA
when will you step aside and let another kid complete your homework
@@acs7167 I have a written clause in my will that stipulates that if I die before my homework is finished then my dog shall rip the unfinished homework to shreds.
@@zypalitra8080 What happens if the school expels you before and when you die your legacy is remembered as being a lazy hippie fraud who never turned their homework in? lmao
when will your homework be finished?
You my friend might want to look into getting a clinical diagnosis for adhd
The way he does George’s voice is so goddamn hilarious and awesome😂🤣
Wow wow wow that's crazy, your thumbnail style instantly reminded me of your 'can winds of winter fit into winds of winter' video from 5 years ago because of how much I liked that video.
Thank you. I did want to do that. I wanted it to invoke a sense of a spiritual sequel, of sorts.
@@AdmiralKird It made for a very nice "Is it?? It is!!!" moment 😁
My good sir. You have a talent. PLEASE MAKE MORE VIDEOS!!!!
Another possibility: does 3/4th mean 3/4s of completed final draft pages?
It could mean 3/4s are in rough drafts, it could also mean 3/4s of the POVs are completed
I know you accounted for the difference in writing pace already, but I feel like 108.48 pages per year is heavily weighted down in a time where he just literally wasn't working on the book at all and the 200 pages that existed were all just left over pages cut from Dance. The last couple of years it's closer to 200 pages per year.
While I know that still has it being around 2029, I'm still pumped that it'll be announced next week at Worldcon 😁
What's the evidence for the last couple of years being 200 pages per year?
@@GoatKnifejust that in 2020 and 2021 he wrote in his blog that he wrote hundreds of pages
How did that turn out for you?
I constructed a similar simulation tool for the release date of TWOW. It came back with 29th February 2025.
I prefer this answer.
Wow, what was the data that you used, if you aren’t joking?
@@skywalkerorder2839 I've just realised that they said the 29th of February 2025. 2025 is not a leap year.
@@rachelblake2350 You're right, I just didn't really think about it I guess
Despite no evidence I choose to believe is true because I want to.
OMG ITS HAPPENING THIS IS NOT A DRILL!!!!! ITS THE CAN WINDS FIT IN WINDS GUY!!!!!!!
I’ve come back to this channel every couple months for the last couple years looking for a new video…. We got 3 videos in one.
I've watched the other videos like 10 times each.
Ur GRRM impression is genuinely one of the funniest things I’ve ever heard
really glad to see you back making content. thank you!!!
I'm really glad you're back watching content!
Whenever I see these kinds of videos on ASOIAF or TWOW, I can't help but revel and delight myself in what goes on in the comment section. The amounts of hope, humour as coping mechanism, nihilism, regret, senseless optimism, cynicism, gaslighting, rage, apathy, despair. All beautifully mixed in the cauldron of tragedy that is the ASOIAF fandom, and then the maniacal laughter that ensues after. So even if we never get TWOW, I consider myself indulged from the hours and hours of entertainment that this community has given me.🤣
Also, I need that 14:21 "AH NO!!" on repeat as my new ringtone and I am willing to pay exactly $2.99 for it, cheers!😂💀
Okay. Here's the conclusion I get from this. Martin did a very noble thing trying to write a book series that was as long and large as his imagination would allow it. I truly admire it, but it just seems like the limitations of time are always there and you can't escape them.
Martin studied journalism in university but said he struggled with the profession's tight deadlines. Speaking as a journalist, I can say that tight deadlines are powerful tools because they force writing into existence. Trying to craft a perfect story is a very nice thing in theory, but I think we all would prefer a imperfect story that exists to a perfect one that doesn't.
I would prefer a somewhat imperfect ending to a no-ending. But I don't prefer any ''imperfect story'' ending over no-ending. If i prefered that, i would be fine with the show's ending. But I don't. I hate it. Be careful with what you wish.
It is okay if he doesn't finish it. There are many book series unfinished. There are many works of art unfinished. It's okay. The books already published have more value, relevance and influence in itself than most book series in the history of literature. No-ending is dissappointing. A bad ending can destroy the entire legacy of his work.
Exactly! Perfect comment.
I think Mr. Martin became a hostage of his own utopia, of his own perfectionism. A utopia should serve us to walk through the best human possible, not to freeze us in infinity possibilities.
@@angelamengualcortinas3614who says an imperfect ending is bad? What is bad is never ending because your are either afraid of hurting your legacy (ego) or to try to put your name on history, "the never ending novel" "would be much better than the show" "would be perfect". He can't reach the expectation he put into the SOIAF, impossible. Any ending or no-ending is gonna be imperfect.
@@vitorapollinario9335 who says no-ending is better than the show's ending? I say! Many people say! A million quadrillion times better.
@@vitorapollinario9335 yeah exactly.
This was better than the HotD season finale, welcome back
Thanks! And yeah... when you don't have a natural end point (HOTD S2), I'm not sure using a montage makes up for it... It... works... and looked nice, but leaves something to be desired.
Wow, this is literally the TWOW release date prediction video to end all TWOW release date prediction videos
I started cracking whenever you did the GRRM voice. Incredible video.
I have been subscribed to your channel for like 5 years in the hope you will return. I'm very happy! It's kinda fitting though, that after I waited so long for you, you are talking about what we all have been waiting for for even longer.
But maybe not what you wanted after all
@@AdmiralKird You can't really calculate GRRM like that. He has phases, where he writes a lot to not writing at all. I had a lot of fun watching your video though, and it does make sense, that he has to split the book in two. I think your proof for that is very solid.
@@morgenstern2603 The phases don't matter at all though. If he writes for 200 per year for five years out of ten and nothing in the other 5, and someone says that he therefore wrote about 100 pages per year than which of the two formulas will tell you how long it took? 5x200+5x0 or 100x10? It's the same, ten years.
@@AdmiralKird Can you really judge humans like that though? Preston made this video, like 2 years ago, where he said it is likely, that George didn't start writing until the pandemic, and the things he had done before where mostly left-overs from DwD. I love statistics. I'm weird like that. I just think GRRM is too erratic for this. The book could be done next year, in 2032, or never. Your estimate is not the worst outcome. Never would be :)
To put that to math: If GRRM didn't write for 10 years, and has now been writing for 5, and would be half done, can we then conclude, that it takes another 15 years, or isn't it possible, that he will finish in the next 5, if he continues writing?
Let's see, 8 years from now GRRM will be 83.
I guess A Dream of Spring, which he said will not be the next book he writes after TWOW, will come out in 2048, when GRRM is 98. Easy!
Too optimistic I think.
what's the next book he writes if not it?
@@SuperstitiousWolf he said he wants to write more Dunk & Egg stories, more of the Targ history books (like a follow up to Fire & Blood).
Screw the hotd finale I am watching this.
You chose correctly.
You made the right choice
Better viewing here
Wow this comment of mine for sure aged....
Never in my life I was so intrigued by math! Please make more !
Thank you very much this video. This is the first of your videos I’ve ever seen. I appreciate the huge amount of time and effort you’ve given to make this.
As a fan of a song of ice and fire, I’m always looking for information. Although I did not laugh at any of your jokes, I absolutely appreciate the levity in a video of this length, and of this nature.
Once again, thank you again for your time and your hard work.
good man
I was just watching TWOW videos a few days ago (a tradition I do every 3 years) and just like that… the GOAT returns.
God is real
oh my god, i was just rewatching your old video (i watched it originally idk how many years ago) and i was wondering when you're to upload again, and now you've done it after 5 years.... WELCOME BACK KING!
welcome back to you as well!
I love that your GRRM voice is just "old man's voice" and you dont even try to sound like him lmao
God it's been 5 years 🤯
Aka the shortest gap between books George has ever been able to do.
@@HOTD108_ I don't know if that was a joke, but, it's not true.
I swear this is the greatest video I’ve seen in a long time. It’s also truly heart breaking.
RETURN OF THE KING
Realizing its been 5 years was such a slap in the face with how long we've been waiting
I’ve missed your videos so much!!! So glad you’re back.. and now we continue the wait for Winds..
I was unprepared for the amount of math involved in this video but I do not regret it
You’re alive? That’s neat.
News of my demise has been greatly exaggerated.
I will note though, if it followa the "A Feast for Dragons" route then we probably will be getting a TWOW version of Feast. So a new book before 2032 in that case, but only the second one in 2032.
I can respect this call to action, your effort should be rewarded
I was sure you were gonna say something like 2028, and was already hopeless. Honestly thought you was joking when you said 2032. Time to go cry myself to sleep.
51:10 it was a perfect phone call, I mean everyone told me it was a perfect phone call
I WROTE EVERYTHING RIGHT, AND THEY INDICTED ME!
This is an amazing video - there's just one thing I'm slightly confused about and I admit it's probably a misunderstanding on my part - the model using expected POV chapter counts vs actual POV chapter counts seems to rely on the fact that a Feast of Dragons wasn't 'released' until Feast for Crows AND Dance of Dragons were both released. While that is technically true, we DID have a Feast for Crows as a book release six years before Dance came out, we didn't have to wait 11 years from Storm of Swords release until Dance of Dragon's release for 'the next book' to come out where the data used for this model seems to imply we did? Likewise it seems like the model is using data that assumes that any book is not actually finished until the chapters written in it but bumped actually appear in the next book, and what's actually happening is what he's written so far is reorganized to be releasable sooner and missing manuscript pages he's instead moving to the next (sometimes a new invented) book. If this is the case, then a book that actually comes out next is actually coming out much sooner than the date you specified, just the actual scope of 'Winds of Winter' as it exists in George's mind as a complete entity is going to end up being two books long, and the estimated date of the NEXT book after Wind's release is 2032 (which seems optimistic, but following the logic on iteratively the same would happen again, so half of that book would be pushed back and so on ad infinitum. one would expect this pattern to start diminishing as he draws to the end, or the story would be of an infinite length)
In short, I don't think from what I understand this tells us anything about when 'the next book' will come out since this method of prediction would have resulted in double the actual wait for someone awaiting the next ASOIAF book after Storm of Swords, and I think 'the next book' will still be called The Winds of Winter even if the actual plot of the story intended for Winds ends shorter than he's currently envisioning with material moved either to ADOS or an invented next book to finish off what he originally planned for Winds. The maths is complicated so forgive me if I've misunderstood something but this is the impression I got from the explanation.