A lot of comments on the size, but here is a link to the max out factory. What they have built out now is just over little corner of the factory 😉 twitter.com/gigafactory_4/status/1213998281891680257
A friend was at the Berlin factory and was told by a senior employee that the factory is awaiting regulatory approval, once received it will be ready to begin producing cars in two hours after. They are ready to go!!
@@OFFSHOREDOUG currently the electrical grid can cope but you are right as more people switch to battery electric only vehicles the electrical supply will be constrained and that is why the supply companies will have to rely on more renewable sourced electricity such as solar and also on grid storage methods to deal with the increase in demand.
Politics is the wild card in this game. From the standpoint of intellectual property, production engineering, software, any standpoint at all, Tesla has secured for itself a frightening position in the auto industry. The price/value ratio for Tesla products is the best in the industry. Demand isn't going to be a problem. But there is political opposition. This fight is just starting. In Germany, Tesla's political opponents co-opted a part of the Green movement. We don't know details - which lobbyists paid off Greenies to actively oppose GF-Berlin. But it had to have happened. Otherwise why would Green advocates fight to preserve - not an old growth forest, but a monocrop timber farm which was always planned to be cut? Why the bitter opposition to ending the era of burning fossil fuels for transportation? Greens should *welcome* GF-Berlin. And many do! But some veered off course to fight *against* Tesla. Someone paid them off. Unions are bitterly opposed to Tesla, which both isn't unionized *and* is vigorously reducing the workers required to operate a factory through increasing automation and cutting down assembly steps. Taxi drivers aren't happy about the prospect of robotic taxis killing their jobs. Truck drivers aren't happy about the prospect of robotic trucks killing their jobs. Legacy automakers are bitterly opposed to Tesla - and they can't keep up. The fossil fuel industry also sees Tesla as posing an existential crisis. Mainstream media is generally hostile to Tesla. Tesla doesn't give them money for advertising. Tesla's opponents do, which means media outlets have a stake in this fight. Expect more anti-Tesla fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) attempting to poison consumer attitudes towards Tesla. All of these political players have deep pockets and powerful influence in national, state and local governments, and they will all be looking for ways to use politics and to shape consumer attitudes to slow or halt Tesla. They all *talk* about ending fossil fuels, but none of them want to see Tesla actually *do* it. Nuisance regulations and laws aimed at Tesla, lawsuits galore, negative media attention. Every dirty trick opponents can think of will be tried. How that will affect Tesla's growth is difficult to know in advance. But don't expect smooth sailing.
This is the ugly part of this transition that many well meaning people don't wish to look at, but must so that a counter move can be made. The festival at the factory was one of the public salvos. This channel and others is a constant barrage as well, but NOTHING BEATS BUTTS IN SEATS and they gave rides at the festival. Add on the fact that the other side isn't sitting idle either so it is a matter of who is smarter, not bigger or richer. This hasn't been easy, the fact that Tesla is here today showed us that we've already done the impossible ONCE, so now we have to continue on every front and being complacent now would be death. I think the good news bolsters our cause and helps so while I know it won't be easy, I have to take the time to celebrate because you have to when you get the chance. I'll take the excitement after years of being near the edge.
Good points. Disruption sucks for those being disrupted. Instead of fighting it they need to accept change. Its a better alternative than dying from an extreme weather event exacerbated by ICE CO2 emissions. Not sure what regulations, law suits, or FUD will stop Tesla. You are being paranoid and hyperbolic. The toothpaste is already out of the tube. There are more multi $ billion companies that are fighting for the transition and THEY ARE ALREADY WINNING the fight.
So you suggest the politics will force consumers to buy inferior vehicles with worse safety and more expensive fuel and maintenance? I see a lot of unemployed or executed politicians in the future.
@@jcjensenllc In the US it's easy to find examples. We have states that refuse to allow direct sales. We have a Biden Administration that is poised to incentivize cars with tailpipes as much or more than any incentives Tesla will receive. Every damn day, we have FUD articles and stories from media outlets that paint Tesla in a negative light, sometimes even outright lying. One reviewer recently complained that driving a Tesla made him feel nauseous. Which is ridiculous. Don't drive in a way that nauseates you! A Tesla doesn't *have* to be driven wildly, any more than any other car. Tesla is and will be scrutinized heavily by regulators for an incidence rate far lower than legacy auto experiences - fires, collisions. And how many drunk driver accidents result in a lawsuit against the manufacturer? In the US, it only happens to Tesla. Articles in the US about the 'top ten BEVs' leave Tesla off of the list. Car reviews stage incidents where a Tesla runs out of battery power - *staged,* mind you. It's endless. I feel I am acknowledging reality, not indulging in paranoia or hyperbole. I am not predicting Tesla won't overcome opposition. I'm pretty confident they will succeed. I'm only saying that Tesla's progress will be opposed. There will be a dirty political fight waged aggressively against Tesla, and FUD will be everywhere.
The list of industries that are against Tesla should also include the Ice service and parts chain plus the Ice Dealerships. I can see a lot of interference by the list of disrupted already anti-ing up resistance. It's up to the consumers to move the needle in the right direction and positive reinforcement of channels like Best in Tesla. Keep up the good fight Lars.
Now I do think the "old" European car industry will somewhat survive. I do think it will rebound at some point, but Tesla (and now the chinese and Koreans with their cheaper, still servicable EVs) will be a very significant, brutally hard hitting reality that Europe's "luxury" car industry, the Germans, the expensive italian brands and Volvo, DS and of course the remnants of the british car industry, will have to wake up to. Most them will not endure, but I do think the VW group and at least a part of Stellantis will make it (Stellantis I am slightly less certain about). Stellantis will mostly survive because the French state will keep it afloat during its coming transition. The british car industry is as good as dead, but then again, it already is kinda dead. They make few niche cars and sell very, very little regardless. Who has a Jaguar or a mini these days!?! The local village idiot might. The old European industry will go in a rough time now, but their ICE vehicles are not completely irrelevant yet even if someone on this channel might blow a gasket. Diesel remains relevant for heavy truckery and ICEs may still relevant in colder areas due to BEVs still having far from full charge efficiency there... not everyone is as rich and guilt-ridden as Norway with money to pay their way out of the BEV range issues in the cold zones. South America and Africa, the middle east and the poorer parts of Asia remain significant car markets still, and they are not technologically or infrastructurally ready for BEVs yet and in these places, new more efficient ICEs and diesels might still, for the time being, be a viable option. But these markets require cheaply built vehicles with less sophistication to easen maintanence and lower price; it will give European brands revenue but certianly NO experience in high tech car building so required to battle in the EV market. Then, finally, also add in America, still overall a slow mover in the EV sector compared to China and Europe. America may have given birth to Tesla, but America itself appears to have less appatite for EVs compared to Europe as fuel is cheap in the US and denial or carelessness of climate problems are widespread. The European brands, particularly the germans, premium italiens and Volvo, can use this to their advantage and will still have a market there. Stellantis will not have a market in the US and has to rely on what few ICE cars it can sell in Europe in the future along with the former french colonies.... It will be a huge loss of prestige for the European Industry having, to a higher degree, scrape for survival by relying on these markets - and relying on ICE in general which wealthier buyers will refrain from - but it will give the old industry sales it needs to survive. The Japanese industry will tap into this same option of at least getting some profits from there. Will this kill of the European car industry? Nope, it will not. I actually think the most "fucked" car industry is the American one (bar Tesla), that is General Motors and Ford, Chevvy, Ram and the rest. The Legacy US makers will have to almost entirely have to rely on the US car market and their expiry date is clear; the day even the US want EVs as these US brands don't do well in the emerging markets like the European and Japanese ones due to being oversized, fuel-thirsty, ugly, expensive to buy and maintain and unsafe. Let us not forget the US legacy companies are heavily indebted as well and virtually without any abroad market presence. Ford produces a minor amount of cars in Germany and sells them in Europe, that is most of the abroad presence the US car industry has. That is the one, important edge European and japanese legacy makers have to survive the coming EV onslaught and their own transition to said technology; a sense of quality and the abroad market options that has granted to them. I do think it will buy them some important years to transition. Tesla will, most likely, become the world's number 1 manufactorer by revenue and perhaps also by number of cars. But it will be years before they produce 2 million cars per year in Berlin. There will be time to catchup, but not every european brand will manage it. far from it.
VW CEO seems to agree. Tesla can build a car in a fraction of the time VW can build a car. For EU, esp. Germany, Tesla needs a compact. VW needs to stop cheating (emissions).
A bit high from my thoughts and research. I had them at around 5mill or so total unit's once all factories&batteries catch up by late 2023. And that's between the 3&y, I think they x out the s&x soon. Semi ramped, roadster in production. And cybertruck around 250k run rate. But I like the optimism for sure. 👍🏻😁
And after 2 years, Tesla will announce their MULTI-FACTORY in Asia. A battery factory in Indonesia, a parts factory or research center in India and an assembly factory in Thailand--the reason for this is to take advantage of the zero tariff within the ASEAN region. The question is, will such a MULTI-FACTORY be more efficient than one located in a sole location.
@@Klimawandelzeuge a Tesla can drive 20 miles on the electricity used to create petrol to drive a ICE about the same distance (average not the most efficient). Not the total energy required to make petrol, just the electricity. If the energy crisis in Europe and China is a problem for Tesla its a major problem for ICE manufacturers. And with electricity at least you can ramp up renewables and use nuclear to address it (unless you are Germany on the last one of course) Vive la France on that one, and the UK is at least still building new reactors. The inherent efficiency of EV’s makes them an obvious choice.
the germans have the highest energy prices in the world and you cant run the energy system with renewebales it is not possible because we dont have a solution to store the energy
Should have my Model 3 in just about 3 months! SO excited for it! I ALMOST bought a Mach-E until I decided that spending more money to get less in every way imaginable except for getting something that looks different probably wasn't the best use for my money.
@@monkeysezbegood Oh, I agree.... That being said, I'm still glad a ordered a Tesla.... Going EV is a good idea either way though... especially with tax credits coming in 2022 in the United States.
0:47 um, that is Not how a bishop moves! Maybe that’s what’s so great about Elon Musk, he seems to make moves that others would find completely impossible or invalid.
Elon has completely changed the rules: -- The others have a Specific Time Limit, to jointly achieve any defense. -- United, they can defeat Tesla Currently: Tesla has: --a few large castles; --a large recruiting heard of knights; --several Bishops; one Queen; one King; --and a decent number of pawns The Others, could still unite ! --Operate their Castles, as one; --Save & Increase their Bishops; --Ptomote a good portion of their pawns, --Start Finding their Knights !! Greatest problem: a large number of Kings & few Queens !
The Legacy Crowd had their fears As Elon mached on through the years Facing imminent slaughter Giga-foes cried; “No water!” Musk laughed; “Then we’ll just use your tears!” 😂
You know, It still amazes me, even though I know Tesla will be the #1 EV maker in the World, that they are doing this so fast and have come so far, while still being OVERLOOKED! VW Dietz has understood the treat and what is so sad, those working with him are his biggest detractors within the company. Their targets, are laughable when you look at what this one factory WILL DO and WHEN they will be able to hit those targets. Govts, policy makers everyone one is either fighting to stay the same or change the entire system. We don't have to just sit back, we mustn't just leave it to others. Make sure to take note of those who are pushing for change and those who are working to stay the same. Tell you friends about what is coming and encourage the young and old to look into alternatives to what they are doing NOW because so many of what we have know before is going to no longer be viable. NOT KNOWING YOUR OPTIONS IS FRIGHTENING, so KNOWLEDGE is POWER. What a time to be alive! That sentence hits differently depending on how you see things.
Volkswagen stand to lose quite much sales when Tesla ramps up their production in Europe. Dietz may have understood this by now, but the rest of the company doesn't seem to be serious enough. When Tesla starts to steal market share big time, all legacy automakers will see their sales plummet real fast. That's not a pretty sight considering the mountains of debt that legacy automakers have, and how much they must invest into the transition to EVs.
@Snake Plant I like the way you think! May be closer to 2B. Not everyone is looking to replace their car today and may wait until useful life has been exhausted.
We will see a huge demand problem - but the way that in a few years there will be not enough EV´s available on the market thus the one who can make the most EV´s will dominate. And the ones who did not secure battery supply early enough will simply go bankrupt. And most likely Chinese manufacturers will enter the European market and undercut prices. Lots of completely unknown Chinese brands have quite a significant EV market share in China (selling combined more cars than Tesla in China).
@@nilsfrederking62 Good points. Tesla makes better cars than anyone and will make millions and millions and millions of them. China and others can do well also. Goodbye old gas cars.
I remember hearing someone talking about a fully automated car engine factory in the US. He said the strangest thing was there were no lights on in the factory. It was really dark. When the machine detected a problem, it turned on lights from where the maintainers were to where the problem was. So, your phrase turning on the lights may be true, but maybe some sections don't need lighting.
Great Presentation! Very soon you will se as many Tesla on the road as we see in Norway. Here more than 1 of 10 is a Tesla in rush hours to and from Oslo.
Close to what i see on most trips over the hill n far away in the bay area, foljs reconize that solar pluss ev eauals big savings that and a car that can save your life on a winding road
It amazes me how anyone still thinks there is any credible competition for Tesla. Any car company that currently mass-produces ICE vehicles is done. Legacy auto imagine they will be selling 50% ICE powertrains in 2030. They will not. They have been calling the shots for a long time, a century in some cases, but they don't seem to realise that their power is gone. It's over.
The old OEMs are walking dead and just don't realize it yet. The only question left is where their bodies will fall. Only a handful of Legacy Automakers even seem to recognize the existential threat out there. Tesla is moving so fast, it's not even looking back to see who's keeping up...no one is, of course. Your point about the OEMs thinking they will still be selling 50% ICE in 2030 is spot on. Who wants to pay new car prices for old tech? Buying an ICE car is like buying yesterday's newspaper. If you're buying an ICE car in 2021 you'd better get a screaming deal on it, because selling it in even 1-2 years could be a real problem.
Diess sees it coming. He is trying his best to drag the board, essentially controlled by the Piech family, into the future. He has his work cut out for him. Ferdinand Porsche is still god there and gasoline fumes are their drug of choice.
Only two choices remain. - ALL others unite, to fight against Tesla; OR - They accept their funeral dates ! Let ALL the boards: Recognize & Unite against Tesla. There might still be time, but they are quickly running out of time. ******** My choice: -- Immediate Emergency board calling, of all ICE manufacturers ! -- Immediate production changes: allowing ALL of them to produce the same supporting lines, against Tesla ! ?? Tesla EV's vs United Heritage EV's
@@dirktween244 funeral dates 😂😂😂😂. ICE company will never unite they have been in competition for decades amongst each other … plus if they did change their business model, build new facilities & knock down the old, it takes time (which they don’t have l) and money (which I believe they r in debt)
Brilliant Brilliant Brilliant breakdown of a reality happening invisibly right in front of people's noses. Your breakdowns are light-years ahead of what even industry "experts" see. You nailed that this is not an EV race but an automobile race Tesla is running. You also nailed the point on margins. Almost no one mentions this and is a major reason legacy manufacturers want to hold onto ICE sales and have paltry ramp up plans for EVs. The Audi e Tron is excellent for consumers, but it isn't excellent for Audi from a profit perspective.
The thing that makes me laugh when people talk about how Tesla isn't big enough to compete when the legacy automakers "ramp up" their ev production is when I get to remind them that Tesla makes so much profit on each car. If they waned, they could slash the price of their cars by $5k USD or more and STILL be making money compared to just about everyone else in the industry.
@@turbolevo8703 It seems you haven't done yours, at least not lately. Tesla has been profitable for many quarters now without credits. That's an old argument.
@@MarkXHolland indeed it is an old tired argument. Just like elons insane compensation awards are never factored in nor is the fact they pay a very high tax rate on each zev credit sold. Or how they built out concurrently 3 of the largest ev manufacturing plant's ever constructed. Or how in the last 4 year's they've built out 5 new factories between the giga ny plant, gigaveda, gigahai, gigalin, teratx and updated/expanded freemont out multiple times now. All at capex costs that should've killed any profit. But they still pulled it off. But hey the ignorant spread it like a disease. 🤔
@@turbolevo8703 "Tesla makes most of its money selling carbon credits and very little on its cars. It seems you’ve not done any research." Nonsense. The only person who haven't done enough research here is you. Just look at the Q2 numbers. The credit sales went down and Tesla posted record profits yet again.
@@yourcrazybear The problem for Tesla is, it’s turning into a cult of fanboys. You call him Elon. First name terms for someone you’ve never met. This is beyond over-familiarity and is a tell for cultism.
You forgot one thing: FSD. When FSD allows autotaxi service, every Tesla can take the place of 3-5+ Non-FSD vehicles. This will absolutely destroy the competition.
I don't see Europe with it's heavy handed regulations, allowing Teslas driverless "robotaxis" on the roads anytime soon. If/when it comes it will likely be rolled out slowly.
No. All over the world most people do not care about full self driving cars. In fact, many Govs may not even allow it. Most people just want a cheap to buy, cheap to run,, easy to use car. It is an appliance, like a refrigerator, it has a job to do. Most people could not care less about FSD.
I am astonished at the figures you supplied. Nowhere have I ever seen Europe only figures and this places the "Tesla Killers" in a completely different light.
To put this in perspective; Europe is around 10-15 million car sales a year. Tesla will conquer between 12% and 20% of the European market with 2 million cars.
@@yourcrazybear Oh, for sure, but while Tesla will have 20%, other auto makers must per definition duke it out on the other 80%. This will be Smartphones all over again, where old dragons (Nokia, Ericsson, Sony, Motorola) got completely and utterly destroyed by Apple, Samsung, and a loooooooong tail of other smartphone makers including Chinese brands. Today, Chinese phones are 50% of the market, and I don't see how the EV market will be much different, to be honest. :)
@@wertigon Yes. Tesla and some of the Chinese brands will steal a big chunk of the total market from legacy automakers for sure. I wouldn't want to be in their (legacy auto) shoes when that happens, considering all the debt and old ICE baggage they have. There will be winners (Tesla, Chinese brands, etc) and there will be losers, and investing in any legacy automaker now is a huge risk. Some companies will inevitable go bankrupt.
@@tohyongsheng3406 Short answer, yes, for sure. EU institutions have already guaranteed EVs will be in high demand for the coming years. However, Tesla *is* making a mistake in not launching the $15 000 until as late as 2024. Like Apple did they are now trading market share for the more profitable $40k+ market. That is a gamble that will not always pay off... :/ The $40k+ segment can easily reach 2M in Europe though, you just need to keep increasing what you get for that price. More range, faster charging, better tech...
A huge disadvantage everyone trying to catch up to Tesla is.. They can't make theirs cheap enough, much less fast enough and buyers just straight up want Tesla's FSD.
You have still to sell their cars. Tesla has no break at the moment, very popular as a fleet car. What with the services they will give. You can't always solve problems by the internet. They will never achieve these numbers. A big part of the European drivers can't pay a tesla. So a vw id4 or id3 are a lot cheaper. There will be also a lot of concurrent of Chinese car manufactures.
@@christiaanmaekelberg628 So Christian do you not think tesla will keep the price at the required level to sell their cars? Especially as they are approaching making 30%ish on their cars?. VW Etal make next to nothing on their evs
Maybe the only real competition will be from Hyundai / Kia. They're in a market segment that Tesla doesn't do yet, and they have great products (or would be, if they fitted rear wipers!). They can sell all they can build, but can they build enough?
The car manufacturers who talk about when they will switch over to full EV production are dreaming - fact is it is the buyers who will decide when all manufacturers (who survive) switch to 100% EV, any that can't switch will not survive. Great news is that if Tesla is confident they can sell this volume that implies they can make EVs profitably down to a price that most people will find affordable - not just early adopters.
This is really going to be something to watch. Big car company executives must be panicking and at a loss of what to do.. Many of us who have wanted electric cars for years, understanding the advantages while knowing they were both possible and less harmful to the environment. Sadly GM knowingly squandered their own opportunity to run with the ball twenty five years ago and ended up destroying a car that was highly regarded by those who had the opportunity to drive one. Being able to have a car with little maintenance, no harmful exhaust and can be powered by roof top solar is akin to having your cake and eating it to.
@@grahamjohnson4702 You are more than a little behind the times in your knowledge. Many people are powering their vehicles with a home solar roof array
@@morninboy The best to date is 150 miles for a weeks charge and is not into production for at least 2 more years. That is vehicles you can class as real cars. You show me a better one.
Good point. In addition, Elon used the designation "Greater Europe" in his speech. In the economic space, that may very well include the Mediterranean, so including North Africa, the Middle East, and Turkey. Then in the North, we have Russia and Ukraine at our borders.
Lars, thank you for an interesting analysis of TESLA vs its legacy competitors in Europe. It will be fun to watch how this all plays out over the next 4-5 years. I really appreciate your thoughtful TH-cam videos.
If the Giga Berlin factory can average 3000 vehicles per week in it's first year of production, and sells them at an average cost of 50K dollars each, and has a 20 percent profit margin, then they will have around 1.5 billion in profit in the first year. And if they reach an average of 5000 vehicles per week in the second year, they will have around 2.5 billion in profit then. This means that the factory will have paid for itself within 2 years. This will give them an astounding lead over other manufacturers.
If they are to build 2 000 000 cars per year, that's 5479 cars per day or 38356 cars per week. Assuming your numbers for cost and margin that's $25 B in profits.
That's a very low average. That only comes out to be 156,000 cars produced for entire year. I think they will achieve at least 500,000 matching or beating Shanghai.
Lars, excellent perspective. I knew the capacity but I did not know the competitive contrast! Hope tesla gets all the permits before lobbyists realize this! Can't wait to see the results end of 2022 & 2023!
Design plays a part in buying cars too, Teslas are quite plain looking cars and their interiors are only attractive to EV geeks. I think european makers have more to fear from the Chinese brands who make cars more appealing to your everyday motorist.
My concern for Tesla is that they only sell big cars and Europe and the UK have loads of smaller cars, the Chinese may still do well! Tesla will do well with bigger cars, but they need to get on with the smaller cars as well. One thing I will miss is the huge variety of cars that are on the market at the moment. I know they are all beginning to look a little similar, but there still is variety. Tesla can bring great cars to the roads, but it could be quite boring, Please design some more models!!!!!!!
The more interesting aspect of this will be which companies lose the most ICE market share first and what the point of no return is for each company. You could see VW losing the smallest amount of market share but still going broke first. Will they shrink over time or just fall in a heap at some point ? They will all be different.
Scrolling thru comments here. I have 1 question where is the E.U. going to plug in all these Teslas to charge them. 2 million cars a year will put a tremendous load on the Electrical grid. LIGHTS OUT.
Brilliant research and analysis, Lars. You've beaten all the other youtubers and mainstream media to the punch here. No hyperbole, no exaggeration, just thorough, factual research and analysis. Can't wait to see this Giga Berlin factory crank into action. Wonder what your old friend GJ will have to say about this? He goes on and on about Tesla losing market share in Europe as the competition wakes up. I don't think so... 😀
Notice how Lars didn't talk about giga Berlin's actual opening date. That's because Germany hasn't given a permit for the factory. it sits on sensitive wetlands and the factory is in danger of never being operational... Good Job Lars, once again you gloss over information that makes your precious Tesla look bad.
I tend to agree. These are the only reason i dont like the Tesla, SpaceX etc, videos as they seem to be nothing but bootlicking. There are MANY MANY factors going on here. I also don't think that EXPENSIVE AF Teslas will fly off the shelf to the tune of 2m / year only in Europe. People don't have that much money. Until they're unable to make cars for 16-20K usd cars, they'll never reach big numbers
I get it Lars, finally, thank you :} Tesla will be finished eating everyone's luch before they even get out of bed (from their "WE'RE NUMBER 1 !" celebrations ). Brilliant. He is always surprising and at "Warp Speed, Scotty !" Great to have Lars decrypting for me ;o)
The skills required to build and develop ICE engines are not of much use in the EV industry. That is why traditional ICE investors do not necessarily make good, competetive EVs and have to invest ALOT and work hard to make the transition. MAZDA and Toyota makes formidable ICEs (I would say better than VW really), but they struggle to make proper EVs. Yes IMO the BZ4X looks very cool and will probably be a fine EV. But can they make enough of them to become relevant? Will the price be competitive? And add to that the chinese EV manufactorers which had little experience building proper cars, and made the shittiest ICE cars you can imagine. They are doing, if not fantastic, at least decently by now. In the EV market. And the chinese goverment will ensure they lack no funding. But to be frank this leaves the German car industry (or any ICE car corporation) with all its accumulated knowledge and talent and R&D in a rather difficult spot. They are smart, resourceful people obviously, but I doubt many of them will stay that relevant in the EV car industry. Another issue as Anthony points out is software, and the Germans are at zero advantage here compared to the others. Especially not Tesla. I would say the German talent thing is, while not without merit, still quite overrated. At the end of the day, they may make "the nicest EVs" but it is not that much nicer than a Lexus or a Genesis and they all share the same issue; they are technologically in their twilight age now.
the big drag on the legacy automakers is: -advertising: (added to price of the car, but causes the car to depreciate as soon as it is driven off the lot) -dealers/showrooms/car lots: this is all added to the price of the car, dealer fees, destinations fees, and fucking fees from mars show up on the price tag. -dealerships: your 'new' car sits on the lot for: days, weeks, years, etc. rusting out, etc. it's such a wasteful, and useless enterprise, the whole advertising and dealership scam. if the car (or anything else for that matter) is great, it sells itself. Just use the internet, Elon Musk bypassed the old legacy scam in one step.
Elon was not responsible for the decision to skip dealerships. Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning decided on that after feedback from other people on the feasibility of dealership partnerships in the first few month before Elon and JB Straubel joined.
Tesla Economist reckoned Lagacy Auto have a $15K hurdle to climb, on each car they produce, compared to Tesla production cost. I reckoned an extra $5K to service the debt they will incur. It is really hard to see how anyone can compete, with that disadvantage. And that is why you see such (relatively) small numbers of EVs from Legacy auto - they make a loss on every one, unless it's a more luxury type.
@@chrisheath2637 i agree, the legacy auto makers are in severe debt, and negative cash flow. If they plan on retooling all their lines to go electric, it will be bankruptcy for sure. The gas motor manufacturers will go from millions to thousands in units, plus none of the engine assembly teams will be required anymore, so a significant amount of people will lose their jobs in any event.
I bought more shares at 780/share last week. I'd been hoping for some fud to drop the price, but with all the great news, I don't want to miss the ride!
Totally agree it’s crazy of the legacy players to hope to match the profit pet car Tesla will enjoy while they crash ahead with poor copies, unless the oil giants cover the losses to keep them in the game and the tax payers less not forget them poor buggers, this is a war coming I see it’s goi g to be messy .
What I would caution people to keep in mind is to ask, “What is China doing?” First off….what is _their_ current production capacity for EVs and batteries? The second thing I would say is that China would not hesitate one millisecond to ‘nationalize’ any and all of Tesla’s manufacturing facilities and those of their suppliers…in China. Plus, I’m quite sure they now have knowledge of _all_ of Tesla’s advanced engineering and manufacturing technologies. As a result, China could equal or surpass Tesla at any time…however unethical any of the things I mentioned they’re doing might be. Anyone else of the same opinion?
Yes some great point's you mentioned. Imo the pivot to mostly exporting from the Shanghai factory earlier this year was a huge red flag warning. China it seems is more than happy to steal from tesla, allow them to be lambasted in the media. All while simultaneously allowing made in China tesla branded cars, assembled by Chinese workers, who speak chinese and email one another in Chinese, made with of course a mandated majority Chinese sourced parts to be sold in the hundreds of thousands in all their competitors countries. What a genius fn cutthroat business strategy. 😐 All while they consolidate their own nev factories, with No doubt plans to rule the economy end of evs world-wide in just a few short year's from now. You watch exactly this happen by 2025 at the latest. Locally produced mid to upper level cars will sell like crazy at home. While they export millions of lfp blade battery powered cheap evs as in sub 20k everywhere they can. 😑
@@4literv6 Nope, those lfp blade batteries may be great but I still doubt the quality of their cars-you are referring to BYD, right? In addition, they sell at a higher price outside China. It is not anymore sub$20k. The dealership make sure they add 30% to the retail price. Only Tesla with their online direct selling honestly shows their SRP wherever their clients may be.
@@benzengap6804 byd has the new dolphin ev and even with a 30% surcharge it would still be under 20k. For a decent hatchback that outperforms the 30k mini Cooper currently on sale. There are other small evs made by baic&mg which even with tariffs and surcharges would still cost around 15-20k. Granted those are 150-200miles if that. But at that price point and with incentives. People would buy every one they ship over. So take that and if they make the next ev incentive an actual point of sale rebate instead of tax credit? It could make many of those cheap Chinese imports 10k or less. Also consider that some states have further ev discounts/rebates and low income programs available plus utility incentives. Nobody is competing with that kind of dirt cheap price. Hence why I said they could rule the low end ev market spectrum as exporters. And keep the higher end stuff for their local market's. Also consider expeng who I personally loathe because they have been sued for stealing multiple tesla ip. The ugly expeng g5 is Toyota Corolla $ with decent range and performance for its segment. Imagine that imported around $30k mid next year. Combined with the tax credit and state incentives? Who domestically could compete? As it's not likely tesla has their compact available until late 2022 or even 2023 now. Heck they haven't even shown a prototype off yet. Although the model y was less than 12 months from unveiling to first deliveries. So it wouldn't be to insane if say they debut it here soon and get it out by q3 next year in small volumes. 🤔
3 years ago I hadn't heard of Tesla, 2 years ago I had never seen one. Now I see them every day and I'm in Northern Ireland which has precisely Zero super chargers. If Tesla can ramp up Super Chargers across Europe as quickly as car production they will be unstoppable.
What Tesla produce is one thing, what they can sell is a whole different thing. They have had a really good year in 2020 but their bad reputation on build quality is catching up on them. I believe Tesla does not have a very good ratio of customer retention which is important if you are going to build your brand. Tesla needs to improve on their build quality and also the customer service needs to improve as well.
Good point however 2M is not from one factory but rather combined ambition for GIGA Berlin site which would include multiple models and multiple production lines.
There is one dark horse in all of this. Does the Berlin area have the talent required and in the quantities required to get this factory up to it's full potential? It's not exactly known for it car manufacturing know-how. However there is a lot of talent in the renewable area, mainly wind power, not that long away. Maybe they can attract some of these talents.
@@nordic5490 Employees mostly want good pay, good working conditions and the opportunity to advance their skills. Most people don't care if the company they sign with today isn't going to exist in 5-10 years.
Future Video idea: FSD + self charging at super chargers = checkmate. once cars can drive themselves.... owners can opt to get cars delivered to their residence for a reduced price. (Maybe $1,000 savings?) reducing significant cost for delivery for Tesla and have cars for DIRECTLY from factory to residence. BOOM
*Money is the issue that everyone has for a better and luxurious life. life was hard for me until I started investing in bitcoin and now earning £3900 per week.*
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I don't like the screen situation and controls at the driver's seat in Model 3. Also the lack of a HUD and Apple Carplay. The legacy automakers still have a good chance of selling every car they make...
BestInTESLA - great video, watched GigaBerlin factory tour LIVE on TH-cam, the Wolfpack Berlin and Gali of Hyperchange we're there. I really hope GigaAustin will also hold a County Fair and Factory 🏭 tour soon.
The rich sees an economic crisis as a garage sale also the rich stays rich by investing and diversifying their portfolio with stocks, Crypto currency and Forex trading which is the wisest thing every individual needs to do and it's real profiting
@@nellyswizz8308 I Was able to see that he is a registered trader, cause to be sincere I don't believe anything I see online but I'm definitely shocked that he is real. How do I reach him please🙏
Thanks! Fascinating analysis, haven't seen anything comparable. And Tesla does it without marketing. If you're interested, the Geico paint operation -- and it's former CEO -- is as interesting as Indra. All the best!
*There's of course one issue with electric cars in general* : They are not better, not safer and not more environmentally friendly - the attendant pollution is just generated elsewhere - out of sight. And with recently stoked fears of black-out in Germany, due to insufficient electricity generation there, you have to wonder about the wisdom of loading the grid with the needs of transportation
Too bad Tesla's are overpriced, and overpromised with proprietary plugs. My Chevy bolt gets 250-300 miles range, only cost $24k brand new after Chevy rebates and uses standard charging ports. They can't sell those 2million cars unless they cut at least a third off of the price, and they're barely breaking even with the current price.
Your Bolt is unsaleable atm, making Teslas much better value. Tesla uses standar Euro charge ports in the EU, Tesla is offering a new charge port adapter in the USA next week.
@@nordic5490 The bolt had a recall because like, 10/150,000 had fires or something negligible like that. But Tesla's are overpriced for the range they provide, and unless the government forces them, they will fuck everyone over by only letting Tesla owners use the public charging infrastructure.
A lot of comments on the size, but here is a link to the max out factory. What they have built out now is just over little corner of the factory 😉 twitter.com/gigafactory_4/status/1213998281891680257
A friend was at the Berlin factory and was told by a senior employee that the factory is awaiting regulatory approval, once received it will be ready to begin producing cars in two hours after. They are ready to go!!
When will they get the approval ??
Sounds wonderful…….Let’s go!
@@juned3122 it is reckoned to be approved some time mid November
We don’t have the electricity to supply the cars. Electrical cars aren’t the way forward.
@@OFFSHOREDOUG currently the electrical grid can cope but you are right as more people switch to battery electric only vehicles the electrical supply will be constrained and that is why the supply companies will have to rely on more renewable sourced electricity such as solar and also on grid storage methods to deal with the increase in demand.
Politics is the wild card in this game.
From the standpoint of intellectual property, production engineering, software, any standpoint at all, Tesla has secured for itself a frightening position in the auto industry. The price/value ratio for Tesla products is the best in the industry. Demand isn't going to be a problem.
But there is political opposition. This fight is just starting.
In Germany, Tesla's political opponents co-opted a part of the Green movement. We don't know details - which lobbyists paid off Greenies to actively oppose GF-Berlin. But it had to have happened. Otherwise why would Green advocates fight to preserve - not an old growth forest, but a monocrop timber farm which was always planned to be cut? Why the bitter opposition to ending the era of burning fossil fuels for transportation? Greens should *welcome* GF-Berlin. And many do! But some veered off course to fight *against* Tesla.
Someone paid them off.
Unions are bitterly opposed to Tesla, which both isn't unionized *and* is vigorously reducing the workers required to operate a factory through increasing automation and cutting down assembly steps.
Taxi drivers aren't happy about the prospect of robotic taxis killing their jobs.
Truck drivers aren't happy about the prospect of robotic trucks killing their jobs.
Legacy automakers are bitterly opposed to Tesla - and they can't keep up.
The fossil fuel industry also sees Tesla as posing an existential crisis.
Mainstream media is generally hostile to Tesla. Tesla doesn't give them money for advertising. Tesla's opponents do, which means media outlets have a stake in this fight. Expect more anti-Tesla fear, uncertainty and doubt (FUD) attempting to poison consumer attitudes towards Tesla.
All of these political players have deep pockets and powerful influence in national, state and local governments, and they will all be looking for ways to use politics and to shape consumer attitudes to slow or halt Tesla. They all *talk* about ending fossil fuels, but none of them want to see Tesla actually *do* it.
Nuisance regulations and laws aimed at Tesla, lawsuits galore, negative media attention. Every dirty trick opponents can think of will be tried. How that will affect Tesla's growth is difficult to know in advance. But don't expect smooth sailing.
This is the ugly part of this transition that many well meaning people don't wish to look at, but must so that a counter move can be made.
The festival at the factory was one of the public salvos. This channel and others is a constant barrage as well, but NOTHING BEATS BUTTS IN SEATS and they gave rides at the festival.
Add on the fact that the other side isn't sitting idle either so it is a matter of who is smarter, not bigger or richer.
This hasn't been easy, the fact that Tesla is here today showed us that we've already done the impossible ONCE, so now we have to continue on every front and being complacent now would be death.
I think the good news bolsters our cause and helps so while I know it won't be easy, I have to take the time to celebrate because you have to when you get the chance. I'll take the excitement after years of being near the edge.
Good points.
Disruption sucks for those being disrupted. Instead of fighting it they need to accept change. Its a better alternative than dying from an extreme weather event exacerbated by ICE CO2 emissions.
Not sure what regulations, law suits, or FUD will stop Tesla. You are being paranoid and hyperbolic. The toothpaste is already out of the tube.
There are more multi $ billion companies that are fighting for the transition and THEY ARE ALREADY WINNING the fight.
So you suggest the politics will force consumers to buy inferior vehicles with worse safety and more expensive fuel and maintenance? I see a lot of unemployed or executed politicians in the future.
@@jcjensenllc In the US it's easy to find examples. We have states that refuse to allow direct sales. We have a Biden Administration that is poised to incentivize cars with tailpipes as much or more than any incentives Tesla will receive. Every damn day, we have FUD articles and stories from media outlets that paint Tesla in a negative light, sometimes even outright lying. One reviewer recently complained that driving a Tesla made him feel nauseous. Which is ridiculous. Don't drive in a way that nauseates you! A Tesla doesn't *have* to be driven wildly, any more than any other car.
Tesla is and will be scrutinized heavily by regulators for an incidence rate far lower than legacy auto experiences - fires, collisions. And how many drunk driver accidents result in a lawsuit against the manufacturer? In the US, it only happens to Tesla.
Articles in the US about the 'top ten BEVs' leave Tesla off of the list. Car reviews stage incidents where a Tesla runs out of battery power - *staged,* mind you. It's endless.
I feel I am acknowledging reality, not indulging in paranoia or hyperbole.
I am not predicting Tesla won't overcome opposition. I'm pretty confident they will succeed. I'm only saying that Tesla's progress will be opposed. There will be a dirty political fight waged aggressively against Tesla, and FUD will be everywhere.
The list of industries that are against Tesla should also include the Ice service and parts chain plus the Ice Dealerships. I can see a lot of interference by the list of disrupted already anti-ing up resistance. It's up to the consumers to move the needle in the right direction and positive reinforcement of channels like Best in Tesla. Keep up the good fight Lars.
So happy I bought stocks in Tesla 1,5 years ago !!!
Yes, …and my only regret is that I didn’t buy 10 times what I bought 2 years ago.
Producing is one thing, selling is another. Euro factories can make more if they could sell more.
It is great to be part of the Tesla community, I have never felt so excited about the future.
🤖🧡
Lars keep up the great videos. Thanks for the preview. Like you said I don’t think most people understand how big this is! “This is nuts!”🤣
Tesla has decimated the competition in Europe. Nobody says it better than you Lars. Well done as usual
Competition?
I'm a little concerned about Elons personal safety, he's treading on the toes of many of the powerful, established institutions.
Now I do think the "old" European car industry will somewhat survive. I do think it will rebound at some point, but Tesla (and now the chinese and Koreans with their cheaper, still servicable EVs) will be a very significant, brutally hard hitting reality that Europe's "luxury" car industry, the Germans, the expensive italian brands and Volvo, DS and of course the remnants of the british car industry, will have to wake up to. Most them will not endure, but I do think the VW group and at least a part of Stellantis will make it (Stellantis I am slightly less certain about). Stellantis will mostly survive because the French state will keep it afloat during its coming transition. The british car industry is as good as dead, but then again, it already is kinda dead. They make few niche cars and sell very, very little regardless. Who has a Jaguar or a mini these days!?! The local village idiot might.
The old European industry will go in a rough time now, but their ICE vehicles are not completely irrelevant yet even if someone on this channel might blow a gasket. Diesel remains relevant for heavy truckery and ICEs may still relevant in colder areas due to BEVs still having far from full charge efficiency there... not everyone is as rich and guilt-ridden as Norway with money to pay their way out of the BEV range issues in the cold zones. South America and Africa, the middle east and the poorer parts of Asia remain significant car markets still, and they are not technologically or infrastructurally ready for BEVs yet and in these places, new more efficient ICEs and diesels might still, for the time being, be a viable option. But these markets require cheaply built vehicles with less sophistication to easen maintanence and lower price; it will give European brands revenue but certianly NO experience in high tech car building so required to battle in the EV market. Then, finally, also add in America, still overall a slow mover in the EV sector compared to China and Europe. America may have given birth to Tesla, but America itself appears to have less appatite for EVs compared to Europe as fuel is cheap in the US and denial or carelessness of climate problems are widespread. The European brands, particularly the germans, premium italiens and Volvo, can use this to their advantage and will still have a market there. Stellantis will not have a market in the US and has to rely on what few ICE cars it can sell in Europe in the future along with the former french colonies.... It will be a huge loss of prestige for the European Industry having, to a higher degree, scrape for survival by relying on these markets - and relying on ICE in general which wealthier buyers will refrain from - but it will give the old industry sales it needs to survive. The Japanese industry will tap into this same option of at least getting some profits from there.
Will this kill of the European car industry? Nope, it will not. I actually think the most "fucked" car industry is the American one (bar Tesla), that is General Motors and Ford, Chevvy, Ram and the rest. The Legacy US makers will have to almost entirely have to rely on the US car market and their expiry date is clear; the day even the US want EVs as these US brands don't do well in the emerging markets like the European and Japanese ones due to being oversized, fuel-thirsty, ugly, expensive to buy and maintain and unsafe. Let us not forget the US legacy companies are heavily indebted as well and virtually without any abroad market presence. Ford produces a minor amount of cars in Germany and sells them in Europe, that is most of the abroad presence the US car industry has. That is the one, important edge European and japanese legacy makers have to survive the coming EV onslaught and their own transition to said technology; a sense of quality and the abroad market options that has granted to them. I do think it will buy them some important years to transition.
Tesla will, most likely, become the world's number 1 manufactorer by revenue and perhaps also by number of cars. But it will be years before they produce 2 million cars per year in Berlin. There will be time to catchup, but not every european brand will manage it. far from it.
@@TheLordexilius No one is reading your long winded answer.
@@prestontucker1687 Bull, I fell out the bottom to arrive at yours.....
Now it's starting to come into focus. Total World Domination! hehe hehe hehe. And that's a good thing!
Since when has a monopoly ever been a good thing?
@@TheLongonot62 Tammany Hall affair?
@@TheLongonot62 Tesla wouldn't be in a position to become a monopoly if the legacy manufacturers were to put up more of a fight...
@@TheLongonot62 Since when does "Total World Domination" equal "monopoly"?
@@TheLongonot62 Oil.
The old legacy manufacturers reminds me of Bluckbuster video when they ignored technology.
And Kodak. Remember Vinyl? 8-Track? VHS? Cassettes? CDs? DVDs?
Well there's still a Blockbuster in Bend Oregon so...😀😀😀
@@huskydogg7536 they probably using flip phones still
VW CEO seems to agree. Tesla can build a car in a fraction of the time VW can build a car. For EU, esp. Germany, Tesla needs a compact. VW needs to stop cheating (emissions).
Now think about what happens in the USA to Detroit ICE when Giga Texas ramps up!
And organizes a real Texan country fair. YESS!
2 train wrecks in one year ... lmao 🤣 🤣 🤣
LEGACY Auto will be DEAD in America.
both gm and FUD motors will go BANKRUPT by 2025.
@@wolfgangpreier9160 - a real TEXAS Hoedown, Don't mess with TESLA.
@@markplott4820 👍👍🤣🤣😂😂
3M Texas, 1M, California, 2M Germany, 2M China- at that rate Tesla is on course to being the world’s largest car producer in just a few years.
A bit high from my thoughts and research. I had them at around 5mill or so total unit's once all factories&batteries catch up by late 2023.
And that's between the 3&y, I think they x out the s&x soon. Semi ramped, roadster in production. And cybertruck around 250k run rate.
But I like the optimism for sure. 👍🏻😁
And after 2 years, Tesla will announce their MULTI-FACTORY in Asia. A battery factory in Indonesia, a parts factory or research center in India and an assembly factory in Thailand--the reason for this is to take advantage of the zero tariff within the ASEAN region. The question is, will such a MULTI-FACTORY be more efficient than one located in a sole location.
Tesla is broken in 2 Years, do you heard about the energy crisis in Europe and China ?
@@Klimawandelzeuge a Tesla can drive 20 miles on the electricity used to create petrol to drive a ICE about the same distance (average not the most efficient). Not the total energy required to make petrol, just the electricity. If the energy crisis in Europe and China is a problem for Tesla its a major problem for ICE manufacturers. And with electricity at least you can ramp up renewables and use nuclear to address it (unless you are Germany on the last one of course) Vive la France on that one, and the UK is at least still building new reactors. The inherent efficiency of EV’s makes them an obvious choice.
the germans have the highest energy prices in the world and you cant run the energy system with renewebales it is not possible because we dont have a solution to store the energy
Should have my Model 3 in just about 3 months! SO excited for it! I ALMOST bought a Mach-E until I decided that spending more money to get less in every way imaginable except for getting something that looks different probably wasn't the best use for my money.
March e still pretty decent car though. Good choice though!
@@monkeysezbegood Oh, I agree.... That being said, I'm still glad a ordered a Tesla.... Going EV is a good idea either way though... especially with tax credits coming in 2022 in the United States.
The look of Mach 3 I really like better then all but Model S, but would go with 3 or Y due to refueling, self driving and technology
@@cryan9376 right there with ya.... The model 3 skirt kits make it look pretty sweet though.
Oh, mach e moose test is to die for! Then check model 3 moose test.
0:47 um, that is Not how a bishop moves! Maybe that’s what’s so great about Elon Musk, he seems to make moves that others would find completely impossible or invalid.
Elon has completely changed the rules:
-- The others have a Specific Time Limit,
to jointly achieve any defense.
-- United, they can defeat Tesla
Currently:
Tesla has:
--a few large castles;
--a large recruiting heard of knights;
--several Bishops; one Queen; one King;
--and a decent number of pawns
The Others, could still unite !
--Operate their Castles, as one;
--Save & Increase their Bishops;
--Ptomote a good portion of their pawns,
--Start Finding their Knights
!! Greatest problem:
a large number of Kings & few Queens !
@@dirktween244 haha, too right
Maybe it's one reason:
Being more Logic or more feeling in chess
Is it possible to meet bishop?
@@niloufarzamani4806
2 bishops, yes
32 bishops (28 in researve ) ?
That alone, should tell you to quit !
@@dirktween244
Thanks alot Drik🙏
Of course, I quit for all bishops
The Legacy Crowd had their fears
As Elon mached on through the years
Facing imminent slaughter
Giga-foes cried; “No water!”
Musk laughed;
“Then we’ll just use your tears!” 😂
You know, It still amazes me, even though I know Tesla will be the #1 EV maker in the World, that they are doing this so fast and have come so far, while still being OVERLOOKED!
VW Dietz has understood the treat and what is so sad, those working with him are his biggest detractors within the company. Their targets, are laughable when you look at what this one factory WILL DO and WHEN they will be able to hit those targets.
Govts, policy makers everyone one is either fighting to stay the same or change the entire system.
We don't have to just sit back, we mustn't just leave it to others. Make sure to take note of those who are pushing for change and those who are working to stay the same. Tell you friends about what is coming and encourage the young and old to look into alternatives to what they are doing NOW because so many of what we have know before is going to no longer be viable. NOT KNOWING YOUR OPTIONS IS FRIGHTENING, so KNOWLEDGE is POWER.
What a time to be alive! That sentence hits differently depending on how you see things.
Volkswagen stand to lose quite much sales when Tesla ramps up their production in Europe. Dietz may have understood this by now, but the rest of the company doesn't seem to be serious enough. When Tesla starts to steal market share big time, all legacy automakers will see their sales plummet real fast. That's not a pretty sight considering the mountains of debt that legacy automakers have, and how much they must invest into the transition to EVs.
With GigaBerlin, Tesla will test the limits of EV demand for their products. Sit back, watch and enjoy the show.
@Snake Plant I like the way you think! May be closer to 2B. Not everyone is looking to replace their car today and may wait until useful life has been exhausted.
Demand? Tesla don't need to spend a cent on advertising. Ford spends £5billion a year. let that sink in.
We will see a huge demand problem - but the way that in a few years there will be not enough EV´s available on the market thus the one who can make the most EV´s will dominate. And the ones who did not secure battery supply early enough will simply go bankrupt. And most likely Chinese manufacturers will enter the European market and undercut prices. Lots of completely unknown Chinese brands have quite a significant EV market share in China (selling combined more cars than Tesla in China).
@@nilsfrederking62 Good points. Tesla makes better cars than anyone and will make millions and millions and millions of them. China and others can do well also. Goodbye old gas cars.
I remember hearing someone talking about a fully automated car engine factory in the US. He said the strangest thing was there were no lights on in the factory. It was really dark. When the machine detected a problem, it turned on lights from where the maintainers were to where the problem was. So, your phrase turning on the lights may be true, but maybe some sections don't need lighting.
Great Presentation! Very soon you will se as many Tesla on the road as we see in Norway. Here more than 1 of 10 is a Tesla in rush hours to and from Oslo.
Norway is killing the ICE car in 2023.......LOL
Close to what i see on most trips over the hill n far away in the bay area, foljs reconize that solar pluss ev eauals big savings that and a car that can save your life on a winding road
One of your Best! Real insight here, revealing the full magnitude of Tesla power in Europe! Excellent content…
It amazes me how anyone still thinks there is any credible competition for Tesla. Any car company that currently mass-produces ICE vehicles is done. Legacy auto imagine they will be selling 50% ICE powertrains in 2030. They will not. They have been calling the shots for a long time, a century in some cases, but they don't seem to realise that their power is gone. It's over.
I hope the same happens to the zionist money printers and their terrorists proxiew
@@friedpickles342 Sure! Why not? Lump 'em all in!
👏👏👏👏
#TSLA
🤖🧡
The old OEMs are walking dead and just don't realize it yet.
The only question left is where their bodies will fall.
Only a handful of Legacy Automakers even seem to recognize the existential threat out there.
Tesla is moving so fast, it's not even looking back to see who's keeping up...no one is, of course.
Your point about the OEMs thinking they will still be selling 50% ICE in 2030 is spot on.
Who wants to pay new car prices for old tech? Buying an ICE car is like buying yesterday's newspaper. If you're buying an ICE car in 2021 you'd better get a screaming deal on it, because selling it in even 1-2 years could be a real problem.
Great job! So nice to see someone that isn't copying the same stories from everyone else.
Not only cars it might take over the airline industry with Space X in the next 10 years. Excellent video Lars
Zero chance of SpaceX having _any_ effect on the airline industry in the next decade.
@@UncleKennysPlace “0”.
Great Presentation and analysis Lars - as always! Tesla is an amazing story to be watching as it unfolds, thank you for bringing us a ring-side seat!
It's going to be like a train wreck 🙃 ... lmao 🤣 🤣 🤣
GO TESLA GO 👊🏻🚀🚀🚀👍🏻😀
Lars, you are getting much better at seeing the big picture. Good presentation.
2022 looking very exciting for Tesla's production ramp up. Also for SpaceX's Starship as well.
It doesn't matter how many car it produces. What matters is how many they sell
Diess sees it coming. He is trying his best to drag the board, essentially controlled by the Piech family, into the future. He has his work cut out for him. Ferdinand Porsche is still god there and gasoline fumes are their drug of choice.
Tesla should try and poach him from VW. That might be the motivation (kick in the jellies) they need.
Only two choices remain.
- ALL others unite, to fight against Tesla;
OR
- They accept their funeral dates !
Let ALL the boards:
Recognize & Unite against Tesla.
There might still be time,
but they are quickly running out of time.
********
My choice:
-- Immediate Emergency board calling, of all ICE manufacturers !
-- Immediate production changes:
allowing ALL of them to produce
the same supporting lines,
against Tesla !
??
Tesla EV's vs United Heritage EV's
They are in for a rude awakening.
Diess will get thrown out of VW. Hopefully Elon is already talking to him.
@@dirktween244 funeral dates 😂😂😂😂. ICE company will never unite they have been in competition for decades amongst each other … plus if they did change their business model, build new facilities & knock down the old, it takes time (which they don’t have l) and money (which I believe they r in debt)
The welds on the are some thing to look at very messy
VW owns Skoda and Audi, so total number for VW should be over 3 million.
…and Seat
Brilliant Brilliant Brilliant breakdown of a reality happening invisibly right in front of people's noses. Your breakdowns are light-years ahead of what even industry "experts" see. You nailed that this is not an EV race but an automobile race Tesla is running. You also nailed the point on margins. Almost no one mentions this and is a major reason legacy manufacturers want to hold onto ICE sales and have paltry ramp up plans for EVs. The Audi e Tron is excellent for consumers, but it isn't excellent for Audi from a profit perspective.
Awesome. Very insightful.
You’re right on the money it’s amazing how many people can’t understand what’s going on it’s right in front of them.
The thing that makes me laugh when people talk about how Tesla isn't big enough to compete when the legacy automakers "ramp up" their ev production is when I get to remind them that Tesla makes so much profit on each car. If they waned, they could slash the price of their cars by $5k USD or more and STILL be making money compared to just about everyone else in the industry.
Tesla makes most of its money selling carbon credits and very little on its cars. It seems you’ve not done any research.
@@turbolevo8703 It seems you haven't done yours, at least not lately. Tesla has been profitable for many quarters now without credits. That's an old argument.
@@MarkXHolland indeed it is an old tired argument. Just like elons insane compensation awards are never factored in nor is the fact they pay a very high tax rate on each zev credit sold. Or how they built out concurrently 3 of the largest ev manufacturing plant's ever constructed.
Or how in the last 4 year's they've built out 5 new factories between the giga ny plant, gigaveda, gigahai, gigalin, teratx and updated/expanded freemont out multiple times now. All at capex costs that should've killed any profit. But they still pulled it off.
But hey the ignorant spread it like a disease. 🤔
@@turbolevo8703 "Tesla makes most of its money selling carbon credits and very little on its cars. It seems you’ve not done any research."
Nonsense. The only person who haven't done enough research here is you. Just look at the Q2 numbers. The credit sales went down and Tesla posted record profits yet again.
@@yourcrazybear
The problem for Tesla is, it’s turning into a cult of fanboys. You call him Elon. First name terms for someone you’ve never met. This is beyond over-familiarity and is a tell for cultism.
Lars, very well produced video. keep up good work
Lars is also ramping up, pumping out those videos ! 👍🏼
I love your videos and optimism (I’m a shareholder of Tesla…).
You forgot one thing: FSD. When FSD allows autotaxi service, every Tesla can take the place of 3-5+ Non-FSD vehicles. This will absolutely destroy the competition.
I don't see Europe with it's heavy handed regulations, allowing Teslas driverless "robotaxis" on the roads anytime soon. If/when it comes it will likely be rolled out slowly.
No. All over the world most people do not care about full self driving cars. In fact, many Govs may not even allow it. Most people just want a cheap to buy, cheap to run,, easy to use car. It is an appliance, like a refrigerator, it has a job to do. Most people could not care less about FSD.
I am astonished at the figures you supplied. Nowhere have I ever seen Europe only figures and this places the "Tesla Killers" in a completely different light.
To put this in perspective; Europe is around 10-15 million car sales a year. Tesla will conquer between 12% and 20% of the European market with 2 million cars.
And legacy automakers will lose out big time in the process.
@@yourcrazybear Oh, for sure, but while Tesla will have 20%, other auto makers must per definition duke it out on the other 80%.
This will be Smartphones all over again, where old dragons (Nokia, Ericsson, Sony, Motorola) got completely and utterly destroyed by Apple, Samsung, and a loooooooong tail of other smartphone makers including Chinese brands. Today, Chinese phones are 50% of the market, and I don't see how the EV market will be much different, to be honest. :)
@@wertigon Yes. Tesla and some of the Chinese brands will steal a big chunk of the total market from legacy automakers for sure. I wouldn't want to be in their (legacy auto) shoes when that happens, considering all the debt and old ICE baggage they have. There will be winners (Tesla, Chinese brands, etc) and there will be losers, and investing in any legacy automaker now is a huge risk. Some companies will inevitable go bankrupt.
Will demand be able to keep up? Genuinely asking, I'm a Tesla bull
@@tohyongsheng3406 Short answer, yes, for sure. EU institutions have already guaranteed EVs will be in high demand for the coming years.
However, Tesla *is* making a mistake in not launching the $15 000 until as late as 2024. Like Apple did they are now trading market share for the more profitable $40k+ market. That is a gamble that will not always pay off... :/
The $40k+ segment can easily reach 2M in Europe though, you just need to keep increasing what you get for that price. More range, faster charging, better tech...
Fascinating video. Does Tesla have a small car range eg VW Lupo? If not, I think the estimates are too high fir direct European sales
A huge disadvantage everyone trying to catch up to Tesla is.. They can't make theirs cheap enough, much less fast enough and buyers just straight up want Tesla's FSD.
you are Correct, gm wants to make a EV for $30,000.....good luck.....lol.
Yes. Legacy are funding their unprofitable EVs with their ICE profits. When ICE demand tanks, there's really not much left.
Lars, your insights and value added thinking are enlightening as always. !!!! My point is specific to Tesla Berlin vs Audi. Did not know.
Just like the music at the beginning of this show, Tesla's lead is straight up spooky.
I hope to be frightened by the Q4 results in a couple months ;)
Yeah. I hope everyone is sufficiently well invested!
You have still to sell their cars. Tesla has no break at the moment, very popular as a fleet car. What with the services they will give. You can't always solve problems by the internet. They will never achieve these numbers. A big part of the European drivers can't pay a tesla. So a vw id4 or id3 are a lot cheaper. There will be also a lot of concurrent of Chinese car manufactures.
@@christiaanmaekelberg628
So Christian do you not think tesla will keep the price at the required level to sell their cars? Especially as they are approaching making 30%ish on their cars?. VW Etal make next to nothing on their evs
Q4? What is your profit prediction for Q3?
Tesla Q4 usually smaller in delivery and other numbers. Hopefully I’m wrong this year
2nd M3 delivered this week. In New Zealand M3 was 2nd most bought car in July 2021.
That is a lot of BMWs.
Maybe the only real competition will be from Hyundai / Kia. They're in a market segment that Tesla doesn't do yet, and they have great products (or would be, if they fitted rear wipers!). They can sell all they can build, but can they build enough?
Actually the competition will be from China, not SK. Byd, MG, etc.
When you said widening the gap, I heard it as "Y"ding the gap :-)
The car manufacturers who talk about when they will switch over to full EV production are dreaming - fact is it is the buyers who will decide when all manufacturers (who survive) switch to 100% EV, any that can't switch will not survive. Great news is that if Tesla is confident they can sell this volume that implies they can make EVs profitably down to a price that most people will find affordable - not just early adopters.
Lots of good information. Thanks
This is really going to be something to watch. Big car company executives must be panicking and at a loss of what to do..
Many of us who have wanted electric cars for years, understanding the advantages while knowing they were both possible and less harmful to the environment.
Sadly GM knowingly squandered their own opportunity to run with the ball twenty five years ago and ended up destroying a car that was highly regarded by those who had the opportunity to drive one.
Being able to have a car with little maintenance, no harmful exhaust and can be powered by roof top solar is akin to having your cake and eating it to.
I doubt any car will be powered by a rooftop solar panel.
@@grahamjohnson4702 You are more than a little behind the times in your knowledge. Many people are powering their vehicles with a home solar roof array
@@morninboy The best to date is 150 miles for a weeks charge and is not into production for at least 2 more years. That is vehicles you can class as real cars. You show me a better one.
@@grahamjohnson4702 Gads you're empty of knowledge and full of crap🤣🤣
@@morninboy And you are so empty of knowledge you can't back up your belief.
Wow! Thanks for putting in perspective Tesla's dominance in Europe! Great video as always!
Good point. In addition, Elon used the designation "Greater Europe" in his speech. In the economic space, that may very well include the Mediterranean, so including North Africa, the Middle East, and Turkey. Then in the North, we have Russia and Ukraine at our borders.
Great Video as always!
It’s Exciting to witness this transitional Event in History!
Lars, thank you for an interesting analysis of TESLA vs its legacy competitors in Europe. It will be fun to watch how this all plays out over the next 4-5 years. I really appreciate your thoughtful TH-cam videos.
If the Giga Berlin factory can average 3000 vehicles per week in it's first year of production, and sells them at an average cost of 50K dollars each, and has a 20 percent profit margin, then they will have around 1.5 billion in profit in the first year. And if they reach an average of 5000 vehicles per week in the second year, they will have around 2.5 billion in profit then. This means that the factory will have paid for itself within 2 years. This will give them an astounding lead over other manufacturers.
Not much press about it, but Tesla has just paid off the loan for Shanghai factory. 🥸
If they are to build 2 000 000 cars per year, that's 5479 cars per day or 38356 cars per week. Assuming your numbers for cost and margin that's $25 B in profits.
The lead will increase even more given how much sales legacy automakers will lose as their market share plummets.
That's a very low average. That only comes out to be 156,000 cars produced for entire year. I think they will achieve at least 500,000 matching or beating Shanghai.
Lars, excellent perspective. I knew the capacity but I did not know the competitive contrast! Hope tesla gets all the permits before lobbyists realize this! Can't wait to see the results end of 2022 & 2023!
Expect a blizzard of corruption to try and block every move, because that's about all the legacy builders have left to use.
The 19 Audi factories are not solely for Audi but some are also producing other models/brands from the VAG group.
Design plays a part in buying cars too, Teslas are quite plain looking cars and their interiors are only attractive to EV geeks. I think european makers have more to fear from the Chinese brands who make cars more appealing to your everyday motorist.
Europeans individualists? ROFL! 🤣🤣🤣
Once they start the hype, people will pile in. Just like with Volkswagen, when they started.
My concern for Tesla is that they only sell big cars and Europe and the UK have loads of smaller cars, the Chinese may still do well! Tesla will do well with bigger cars, but they need to get on with the smaller cars as well. One thing I will miss is the huge variety of cars that are on the market at the moment. I know they are all beginning to look a little similar, but there still is variety. Tesla can bring great cars to the roads, but it could be quite boring, Please design some more models!!!!!!!
The more interesting aspect of this will be which companies lose the most ICE market share first and what the point of no return is for each company. You could see VW losing the smallest amount of market share but still going broke first. Will they shrink over time or just fall in a heap at some point ? They will all be different.
gm and FUD motors already lost market share in 2020, both have been in DECLINE since 2016.
One thing is capacity and second is sales - that is big difference!
Lars hope everyone on the internet sees your video. Two thumbs up!!
Scrolling thru comments here. I have 1 question where is the E.U. going to plug in all these Teslas to charge them. 2 million cars a year will put a tremendous load on the Electrical grid. LIGHTS OUT.
Brilliant research and analysis, Lars. You've beaten all the other youtubers and mainstream media to the punch here. No hyperbole, no exaggeration, just thorough, factual research and analysis. Can't wait to see this Giga Berlin factory crank into action. Wonder what your old friend GJ will have to say about this? He goes on and on about Tesla losing market share in Europe as the competition wakes up. I don't think so... 😀
is the 2m cars all from the present footprint or do they have to do additional buildings.
with current footprint, Total capacity at GigaBerlin is 3 -4 Million fully ramped, mostly Model Y , then 2024 car for $24,000 HOT HATCH.
I think it is from the currently built structures. 2 million is a conservative number, could be more.
Cant wait for Tesla’s affordable EV !🤞 saving my pennies already!
Super Video yet again Thanks
Notice how Lars didn't talk about giga Berlin's actual opening date. That's because Germany hasn't given a permit for the factory. it sits on sensitive wetlands and the factory is in danger of never being operational... Good Job Lars, once again you gloss over information that makes your precious Tesla look bad.
I tend to agree. These are the only reason i dont like the Tesla, SpaceX etc, videos as they seem to be nothing but bootlicking. There are MANY MANY factors going on here.
I also don't think that EXPENSIVE AF Teslas will fly off the shelf to the tune of 2m / year only in Europe. People don't have that much money. Until they're unable to make cars for 16-20K usd cars, they'll never reach big numbers
Very good as usual, thank you.
I get it Lars, finally, thank you :} Tesla will be finished eating everyone's luch before they even get out of bed (from their "WE'RE NUMBER 1 !" celebrations ).
Brilliant. He is always surprising and at "Warp Speed, Scotty !"
Great to have Lars decrypting for me ;o)
How long until the market is saturated?
What about the German car talent and knowledge they will attract when the German ICE companies go down?
The skills required to build and develop ICE engines are not of much use in the EV industry. That is why traditional ICE investors do not necessarily make good, competetive EVs and have to invest ALOT and work hard to make the transition. MAZDA and Toyota makes formidable ICEs (I would say better than VW really), but they struggle to make proper EVs. Yes IMO the BZ4X looks very cool and will probably be a fine EV. But can they make enough of them to become relevant? Will the price be competitive?
And add to that the chinese EV manufactorers which had little experience building proper cars, and made the shittiest ICE cars you can imagine. They are doing, if not fantastic, at least decently by now. In the EV market. And the chinese goverment will ensure they lack no funding.
But to be frank this leaves the German car industry (or any ICE car corporation) with all its accumulated knowledge and talent and R&D in a rather difficult spot. They are smart, resourceful people obviously, but I doubt many of them will stay that relevant in the EV car industry.
Another issue as Anthony points out is software, and the Germans are at zero advantage here compared to the others. Especially not Tesla.
I would say the German talent thing is, while not without merit, still quite overrated. At the end of the day, they may make "the nicest EVs" but it is not that much nicer than a Lexus or a Genesis and they all share the same issue; they are technologically in their twilight age now.
@Anthony Q Fair enough, though I still think Tesla's cars could use a design boost.
Lars, Keep up the great work, your show is still my favorite utube channel. I’m ready to buy more sway as well. Thanks again and be safe.😀😀
the big drag on the legacy automakers is:
-advertising: (added to price of the car, but causes the car to depreciate as soon as it is driven off the lot)
-dealers/showrooms/car lots: this is all added to the price of the car, dealer fees, destinations fees, and fucking fees from mars show up on the price tag.
-dealerships: your 'new' car sits on the lot for: days, weeks, years, etc. rusting out, etc.
it's such a wasteful, and useless enterprise, the whole advertising and dealership scam. if the car (or anything else for that matter) is great, it sells itself. Just use the internet, Elon Musk bypassed the old legacy scam in one step.
Elon was not responsible for the decision to skip dealerships. Martin Eberhard and Marc Tarpenning decided on that after feedback from other people on the feasibility of dealership partnerships in the first few month before Elon and JB Straubel joined.
Tesla Economist reckoned Lagacy Auto have a $15K hurdle to climb, on each car they produce, compared to Tesla production cost. I reckoned an extra $5K to service the debt they will incur. It is really hard to see how anyone can compete, with that disadvantage. And that is why you see such (relatively) small numbers of EVs from Legacy auto - they make a loss on every one, unless it's a more luxury type.
@@chrisheath2637 i agree, the legacy auto makers are in severe debt, and negative cash flow. If they plan on retooling all their lines to go electric, it will be bankruptcy for sure. The gas motor manufacturers will go from millions to thousands in units, plus none of the engine assembly teams will be required anymore, so a significant amount of people will lose their jobs in any event.
I bought more shares at 780/share last week. I'd been hoping for some fud to drop the price, but with all the great news, I don't want to miss the ride!
Totally agree it’s crazy of the legacy players to hope to match the profit pet car Tesla will enjoy while they crash ahead with poor copies, unless the oil giants cover the losses to keep them in the game and the tax payers less not forget them poor buggers, this is a war coming I see it’s goi g to be messy .
In 2023 Tesla will become bigger than all but the biggest auto manufacturers.
What I would caution people to keep in mind is to ask, “What is China doing?” First off….what is _their_ current production capacity for EVs and batteries? The second thing I would say is that China would not hesitate one millisecond to ‘nationalize’ any and all of Tesla’s manufacturing facilities and those of their suppliers…in China. Plus, I’m quite sure they now have knowledge of _all_ of Tesla’s advanced engineering and manufacturing technologies. As a result, China could equal or surpass Tesla at any time…however unethical any of the things I mentioned they’re doing might be. Anyone else of the same opinion?
Yes some great point's you mentioned. Imo the pivot to mostly exporting from the Shanghai factory earlier this year was a huge red flag warning.
China it seems is more than happy to steal from tesla, allow them to be lambasted in the media.
All while simultaneously allowing made in China tesla branded cars, assembled by Chinese workers, who speak chinese and email one another in Chinese, made with of course a mandated majority Chinese sourced parts to be sold in the hundreds of thousands in all their competitors countries. What a genius fn cutthroat business strategy. 😐
All while they consolidate their own nev factories, with No doubt plans to rule the economy end of evs world-wide in just a few short year's from now. You watch exactly this happen by 2025 at the latest. Locally produced mid to upper level cars will sell like crazy at home.
While they export millions of lfp blade battery powered cheap evs as in sub 20k everywhere they can. 😑
@@4literv6 nationalizing would be a huge problem for them, they will be happy just stealing the tech.
Elon probably has a "kill switch" in case China wants to blackmail Tesla.
@@4literv6 Nope, those lfp blade batteries may be great but I still doubt the quality of their cars-you are referring to BYD, right? In addition, they sell at a higher price outside China. It is not anymore sub$20k. The dealership make sure they add 30% to the retail price. Only Tesla with their online direct selling honestly shows their SRP wherever their clients may be.
@@benzengap6804 byd has the new dolphin ev and even with a 30% surcharge it would still be under 20k. For a decent hatchback that outperforms the 30k mini Cooper currently on sale.
There are other small evs made by baic&mg which even with tariffs and surcharges would still cost around 15-20k.
Granted those are 150-200miles if that. But at that price point and with incentives. People would buy every one they ship over.
So take that and if they make the next ev incentive an actual point of sale rebate instead of tax credit?
It could make many of those cheap Chinese imports 10k or less. Also consider that some states have further ev discounts/rebates and low income programs available plus utility incentives.
Nobody is competing with that kind of dirt cheap price. Hence why I said they could rule the low end ev market spectrum as exporters.
And keep the higher end stuff for their local market's.
Also consider expeng who I personally loathe because they have been sued for stealing multiple tesla ip.
The ugly expeng g5 is Toyota Corolla $ with decent range and performance for its segment.
Imagine that imported around $30k mid next year.
Combined with the tax credit and state incentives? Who domestically could compete?
As it's not likely tesla has their compact available until late 2022 or even 2023 now.
Heck they haven't even shown a prototype off yet.
Although the model y was less than 12 months from unveiling to first deliveries. So it wouldn't be to insane if say they debut it here soon and get it out by q3 next year in small volumes. 🤔
GREAT video! thanks!
The thing is: There will not be more cars sold in europ overall - therefore these 2M cars will reduce sales of others by ~2M…!!!
3 years ago I hadn't heard of Tesla, 2 years ago I had never seen one. Now I see them every day and I'm in Northern Ireland which has precisely Zero super chargers. If Tesla can ramp up Super Chargers across Europe as quickly as car production they will be unstoppable.
What Tesla produce is one thing, what they can sell is a whole different thing. They have had a really good year in 2020 but their bad reputation on build quality is catching up on them. I believe Tesla does not have a very good ratio of customer retention which is important if you are going to build your brand. Tesla needs to improve on their build quality and also the customer service needs to improve as well.
Good point however 2M is not from one factory but rather combined ambition for GIGA Berlin site which would include multiple models and multiple production lines.
There is one dark horse in all of this. Does the Berlin area have the talent required and in the quantities required to get this factory up to it's full potential? It's not exactly known for it car manufacturing know-how. However there is a lot of talent in the renewable area, mainly wind power, not that long away. Maybe they can attract some of these talents.
You really think Tesla just decided to build a factory in Berlin without thinking about a quality workforce??? Yeah, right.
Employees will want to work at a plant with a future.
@@nordic5490 Employees mostly want good pay, good working conditions and the opportunity to advance their skills. Most people don't care if the company they sign with today isn't going to exist in 5-10 years.
Great job love the reporting
I see the three short sellers left have down-voted you....
Future Video idea: FSD + self charging at super chargers = checkmate.
once cars can drive themselves.... owners can opt to get cars delivered to their residence for a reduced price. (Maybe $1,000 savings?) reducing significant cost for delivery for Tesla and have cars for DIRECTLY from factory to residence. BOOM
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Great video, nice rhythm in voice over too. Keep it up.
I don't like the screen situation and controls at the driver's seat in Model 3. Also the lack of a HUD and Apple Carplay. The legacy automakers still have a good chance of selling every car they make...
Tesla do not use a corporative democratic philosophy by a geniocratic philosophy: the best minds are leading.
BestInTESLA - great video, watched GigaBerlin factory tour LIVE on TH-cam, the Wolfpack Berlin and Gali of Hyperchange we're there.
I really hope GigaAustin will also hold a County Fair and Factory 🏭 tour soon.
Tesla helping keep Austin weird - yeehaw!
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*There's of course one issue with electric cars in general* :
They are not better, not safer and not more environmentally friendly - the attendant pollution is just generated elsewhere - out of sight.
And with recently stoked fears of black-out in Germany, due to insufficient electricity generation there, you have to wonder about the wisdom of loading the grid with the needs of transportation
Too bad Tesla's are overpriced, and overpromised with proprietary plugs. My Chevy bolt gets 250-300 miles range, only cost $24k brand new after Chevy rebates and uses standard charging ports. They can't sell those 2million cars unless they cut at least a third off of the price, and they're barely breaking even with the current price.
Your Bolt is unsaleable atm, making Teslas much better value. Tesla uses standar Euro charge ports in the EU, Tesla is offering a new charge port adapter in the USA next week.
@@nordic5490 The bolt had a recall because like, 10/150,000 had fires or something negligible like that. But Tesla's are overpriced for the range they provide, and unless the government forces them, they will fuck everyone over by only letting Tesla owners use the public charging infrastructure.