“With mortgage rates remaining elevated and fewer houses listed for sale, homeowners sitting on favorable rates are getting more value out of their property, a new report shows. U.S. homeowners with a mortgage rate under the current average of 6.67% saved $66,000 by not selling their home in December, more than the $55,000 that Freddie Mac calculated in July. Freddie Mac estimates that "locked-in" homeowners had saved a total of $800 billion as of October, as six in 10 borrowers have a mortgage rate below 4%.”
Sales are BELOW the lowest sales in the Spring of 2020 and look like they are lower than they Fall 2007 low! That means they are the lowest form Jan 2005 forward! Does the chart reflect all the data avalable.?
Jason, the reason you see medium price goes up is because of the increase of the percentage of 1M and up home sales. which skews the data. if you exclude that price range, I am willing to bet that the medium price is down YOY
I expect California home prices to trend sideways for some time until wages can catch up with our elevated prices. Even if there is some 2008 event again, there are too many boomers and retirees in this state, and high paid techies to keep everything afloat. I would expect the undesireable areas to feel the most pain, i.e. Stockton, Fresno, Modesto and the more desireable areas to live, like El Dorado County, Placer County to not see much of a downturn. The trend is that people are moving away from high crime areas to more remote and rural areas. There is very low volume in the nicer areas, because people have found their slice of heaven and are staying put. Thats my prediction. As a California native, lets see if my intuition is right. 🤷♂️
Wages don’t have to keep up they aren’t the primary driver of growth. Ca is run off stocks and equity. People save believe it or not. Look at global home prices affordability as far as wage to price of home isn’t a stat that matters. In Canada wages are much lower and prices much higher.
Yes, it makes sense that more sales are getting done at the higher end of the market. Sellers can cut prices more aggressively because they are unlikely to be leveraged and are more astute investors. They might be willing to sell a property 20 or 30% off its highest price, because they can put the money into another better investment or they recognize it could be years before prices recover. They don't *need* the highest price to sell, they just need to get the sale done.
The buyers on the higher end homes are less sensitive to prices. The 1 home that sold this Fall in our immediate neighborhood (about 40 homes, all > $2M) went under contract in 2 weeks.
Not what I said though. Im saying High end of the market is selling more easily because the sellers there have more flexibility. Catching the highest possible price isn't necessarily their only goal. @@eile4219
Outside of the Bay Area, the CA market is very strong for SFR's. I just bought a "small" investment property, a single family home, for 560k. It's a light fixer. It's worth 725k as is. 18mo ago this home renovated sold for $600k. Fully renovated a model match sold around the corner for $805k. For single family in San Diego, this is the very bottom of our market and the demand is quite high. A business partner of mine builds very high end homes in Rancho Santa Fe. He finished a 6.5mil home in October and it's already sold. LA has some softening but is still near all time highs. Most of CA is still very expensive and possibly increasing in value.
Sale price to list price ratio is manipulated. I’ve seen various properties that change their final list price just before the deal closes to match the sale price.
3:20 This is the beginning. It won't be long before real estate loses its shine and stinks like a monkey. Once it gets the smell of failure about it, then EVERYONE will stay away. In California, we are basically seeing a CRASH in all areas except for million dollar homes. The million dollar homes are masking what is going on with buyers that have less money. Good work on covering the different price stratas. The wheels are coming off the housing market wagon. At some point, massive declines will become obvious and all buyers will disappear as sellers try to all head for the exits at once. CRASH.
@@jaydeeare285 This month in 2008 in my industry (commercial real estate) is referenced as "The Great Credit Line Freeze"...Lending totally shut down and any open LOC's with available credit were closed whether tied to real estate or not. There is much more to the story, but yeah, Sept 2008 sits firmly in my head.
People are leaving California regardless of their reasons. So it doesn't matter what you're asking, you're losing potential buyers. Therefore your market of buyers is shrinking. As Florida's market continues to climb. People have to wonder why?!
I would love to see/hear an analysis of the Charlotte, NC area…
As a potential home buyer this was very informative and easy to follow. Thank you!
Happy holidays Jason
Sand to you Jack!
“With mortgage rates remaining elevated and fewer houses listed for sale, homeowners sitting on favorable rates are getting more value out of their property, a new report shows.
U.S. homeowners with a mortgage rate under the current average of 6.67% saved $66,000 by not selling their home in December, more than the $55,000 that Freddie Mac calculated in July.
Freddie Mac estimates that "locked-in" homeowners had saved a total of $800 billion as of October, as six in 10 borrowers have a mortgage rate below 4%.”
Excellent video, great information, thanks for your diligence!
Thank you for supporting the channel!
Nicely done as usual
I appreciate that
Sales are BELOW the lowest sales in the Spring of 2020 and look like they are lower than they Fall 2007 low! That means they are the lowest form Jan 2005 forward! Does the chart reflect all the data avalable.?
Really helpful info Jason, thanks!
Happy to hear that. Thank you!
Jason, the reason you see medium price goes up is because of the increase of the percentage of 1M and up home sales. which skews the data. if you exclude that price range, I am willing to bet that the medium price is down YOY
Yo Jason appreciate the work and update
Thank you and Good morning!
Thanks Jason 😊
My pleasure! Thank you for supporting the channel.
I've noticed Redfin estimates are going up fast in the last week or 2. Trying to manipulate the market higher.
Yup exactly
No that is the reaction to rate lowering everyone told you would happen that was ignored
Can you do a NY version
I expect California home prices to trend sideways for some time until wages can catch up with our elevated prices. Even if there is some 2008 event again, there are too many boomers and retirees in this state, and high paid techies to keep everything afloat. I would expect the undesireable areas to feel the most pain, i.e. Stockton, Fresno, Modesto and the more desireable areas to live, like El Dorado County, Placer County to not see much of a downturn. The trend is that people are moving away from high crime areas to more remote and rural areas. There is very low volume in the nicer areas, because people have found their slice of heaven and are staying put. Thats my prediction. As a California native, lets see if my intuition is right. 🤷♂️
Pretty close, but I think rather than sideways.. it’s a gradual decline from 2024-2028. I predict about 2-3% decline each year.
Folsom and edh are still building crazy and sold crazy!
@@noname-mm9ofdef down. A few markets will bounce on the way down!
@noname-mm9of 3% until when? You want to see a possible 30% correction? I can't afford to wait 10 years for something that may not happen.
Wages don’t have to keep up they aren’t the primary driver of growth. Ca is run off stocks and equity. People save believe it or not. Look at global home prices affordability as far as wage to price of home isn’t a stat that matters. In Canada wages are much lower and prices much higher.
Yes, it makes sense that more sales are getting done at the higher end of the market. Sellers can cut prices more aggressively because they are unlikely to be leveraged and are more astute investors. They might be willing to sell a property 20 or 30% off its highest price, because they can put the money into another better investment or they recognize it could be years before prices recover. They don't *need* the highest price to sell, they just need to get the sale done.
The buyers on the higher end homes are less sensitive to prices. The 1 home that sold this Fall in our immediate neighborhood (about 40 homes, all > $2M) went under contract in 2 weeks.
got it, we just need to increase the price to high end, then it will sell
Not what I said though. Im saying High end of the market is selling more easily because the sellers there have more flexibility. Catching the highest possible price isn't necessarily their only goal. @@eile4219
@@eile4219 foregone conclusion 😂
Outside of the Bay Area, the CA market is very strong for SFR's. I just bought a "small" investment property, a single family home, for 560k. It's a light fixer. It's worth 725k as is. 18mo ago this home renovated sold for $600k. Fully renovated a model match sold around the corner for $805k. For single family in San Diego, this is the very bottom of our market and the demand is quite high. A business partner of mine builds very high end homes in Rancho Santa Fe. He finished a 6.5mil home in October and it's already sold. LA has some softening but is still near all time highs. Most of CA is still very expensive and possibly increasing in value.
Sale price to list price ratio is manipulated. I’ve seen various properties that change their final list price just before the deal closes to match the sale price.
I wish they used the original price
Makes sense because if share of houses have price cut is 35%+ the final sale to list price should be greater not this 1-2% BS
most data just look at the final sales price and compare to last year's final sales price.
Good morning Jason.
Lol
Good morning!
The rate matters on a $2m house by u BUT not so much on my $300k house..V Gavin😁😁😁😁
Great morning Jason & welcome back!👍
Good morning Steve!
Feeling blessed to be retired debt free and under prop 13.
Watching the debtors "investors" panic..great entertainment. 😅
You snooze You lose.
Prop 13, great reason to stay in California.
Prop 13 is a huge benefit of owning a home in California especially during years when the market skyrockets.
We now in CALIFORNIA are in a $68 Billion dollar deficit….. the crash is going to be very wide and hard across the board….
Median price is 822k....🤣 and then 🤮
3:20
This is the beginning. It won't be long before real estate loses its shine and stinks like a monkey. Once it gets the smell of failure about it, then EVERYONE will stay away.
In California, we are basically seeing a CRASH in all areas except for million dollar homes. The million dollar homes are masking what is going on with buyers that have less money. Good work on covering the different price stratas.
The wheels are coming off the housing market wagon. At some point, massive declines will become obvious and all buyers will disappear as sellers try to all head for the exits at once. CRASH.
😴
Still Alive GM !!!!! New CA Taxes on 1/1 ???😁😁😁😁😁
What are the new taxes?
@@eurekahope5310 LOTs $$$ in CA I saw on another Podcast . Uncle Joe raised N-Gas Taxes on all 1/2023 so 1/1/2024 ?????????😝😝😝 V Gavin😁😁😁😁
Good morning Jim!
September 2008 is when banks stopped issuing home loans.
Huh ? 🤷♀️
@@jaydeeare285 This month in 2008 in my industry (commercial real estate) is referenced as "The Great Credit Line Freeze"...Lending totally shut down and any open LOC's with available credit were closed whether tied to real estate or not. There is much more to the story, but yeah, Sept 2008 sits firmly in my head.
@@jaydeeare285 Re: time stamp 10:10 th-cam.com/video/YKRqq1sLUps/w-d-xo.html
What?
People are leaving California regardless of their reasons. So it doesn't matter what you're asking, you're losing potential buyers. Therefore your market of buyers is shrinking. As Florida's market continues to climb. People have to wonder why?!
As a Californian in the Monterey area, homes are still going fast. Our market of buyers has not been affected by the mass exodus.