0:44 An article published on 11 June 2024 summed it up perfectly when it quoted the Luxembourg prime minister Xavier Bettel’s comments from March 2018: “They were in with loads of opt-outs and now want out with loads of opt-ins.” Not going to happen Starmer!
@@louis-philippearnhem6959 NO IT WONT HAPPEN, I LIKE STARMER BUT I THINK HE KNOWS IT, HES TRYING TO PLEASE BOTH SIDES, TORIES AND FARAGE HAVE LEFT US WITH A STINKING MESS AND STARMER WILL SMELL DEALING WITH IT TOLL ITS MOSTLY CLEARED UP
Just discussing Farage and Johnson nearly a decade after Brexit shows how far the English have to go to even begin realistic discussions on applying to the EU.
They are always stuck firmly in the past, so why should brexit be an exception. In 10 years time the discussion will still not have moved from "only 37% voted for brexit".
Thank you John & Brendan. I think it is also worth a mention that if Harris succeeds then Trump if finished, MAGA America will need to regroup, the Republican Party will have to regroup, and the Brexit Nationalists of the Reform & Conservative Parties in the UK will suffer a huge body blow, ... and a whole new vista opens for Starmer.
No. Republicans will retain the House and Senate most likely. We have a checks and balances system. Whoever wins will not help the UK. No trade deal will ever happen. Obama (your neo-lib savior) said it himself, “The UK will be in the back of the que.”😮 Americans call it ‘the line.’ Either way, in 30 years, England as you know it will cease to exist. Happy Brexit!
I sincerely hope that that will happen. Trump is a joke and he is reviled the whole world over except by those in Republican states where the education system has been destroyed. Trump did say that he loves the uneducated, didn't he.
I am not sure these are incidental disasters. Brexit has destroyed the political stability of the UK and the Premierships of Johnson and Truss are fitting symptoms of this instability.
It is actually a funny discussion, to me. The UK geographically is always in Europe. Your political choice is to make bureaucracy more or less. Brexit is just a choice for more roadblocks to collaboration.
EU is stronger working together, especially in these difficult times. War is close and dictators are collaborating on our downfall. I would be happy for UK return.
Unfortunately until either the UK gets serious electoral reform, or either labour or conservative parties are prepared to face down the minority of the population who support Brexit then we won't get any move forward.
Many of these issues would be solved - or at least greatly mitigated - by replacing the UK's dysfunctional First Part The Post electoral system with Proportional Representation in tandem with the Single Transferable Vote. Sadly, however, Starmer has made it ABUNDANTLY clear that he has ZERO intention of EVER doing so. Au contraire, he has dug his heels in on this issue. Moreover, Starmer has said that in his lifetime a Labour Government would NEVER seek for the UK to join the EU again. Indeed, one of his election slogans was 'Make Brexit Work.' And then we have the problem that Starmer is seeking to continue the previous (Tory) govenment's plan to create numerous 'Special Enterprise Zones' and some more 'Free Ports' which would be devoid of government regulation. Doing this will ensure that the UK will NOT be eligible to join the EU for a VERY, VERY long time - at least another 35 years in my opinion. All of which delights the Kremlin/Putin, who is delighted to see as much fracturing of Europe as possible, and has poured considerable money and resources into ensuring that Brexit come about in the first place, and that it will continue unabated for the next fourty years or more. Add to this comments such as Freedom of Movement being a thing of the past, and that we have to 'move on.' To say that those of us who want to see the UK once more within the EU is an uphill struggle is an understatement.
"We think Britain's place is in the European Union". Lots of European Union citizens think the opposite. Britain had a chance to integrate but chose to leave. No more opt-outs, no more exceptionalism. It's over and done.
@@nicks4934 While a member it was the UK who prevented any attempt at a european defense cooperation. Now that the UK is out this idea finaly advances, hopefully not to late. Bringing the UK back in the EU would again reinstate the blockade of all closer european cooperation. That would be extremely destructive for the EU. Im sorry you have to suffer from the economic problems the UK voted to take upon itself, but we cant help you without destroying the EU.
Interesting video thanks. Time for the young to change the conversation using modern communications. No longer does TV ad newspapers have a stranglehold on mass communications. Both Cons and labour pro-EU groups need change the discussion within those parties.
Unfortunately, it's unlikely that the Conservative Party is on the way to being destroyed. They will be pragmatic enough to survive, somehow, like they always have.
They will be subsumed by the reform party sooner or later, much like the tea party and MAGA shift in the US. Basically they are now Republicans in name only. The Tories (the old “moderate” party are dead and buried), just aren’t attracting anyone talented enough to save them.
@@col.hertford9855 Yes, I can see that happening (infact, it's happening as we speak). But I can't see a sudden "destruction" involving them being overtaken by Reform in a general election. Having said that, at the last election they got their worst ever result, so we are living through historical changes!
@@montornes1979 As I touch on in the piece, the Scottish and Welsh devolved elections could be critical: there seems to be a real chance Reform could destroy the Conservatives in both contests. It is difficult to imagine the Conservative leader surviving that imv.
I think the Tories will eventually split into two different parties composing of moderate Re-joiners and far right Brexiteers. I don't think that those different factions can live with each other anymore. Obviously they've been successful in the past precisely because they've been a broad church, but there are now millions of moderate Remainer Tories who are embarrassed and angry about what their party has done.
You love telling the narrative you fantasise over. The UK will never seek to be entangled in EU again. That's the reality. It doesn't matter what scenarios inhabit the minds of anti brexiters. The UK is stuck with a debt of well over 60% GDP for DECADES TO COME. That's why Starmer knows that the UK will not be joining the EU in his lifetime. It ain't gonna happen.
They cannot out-Reform Reform because Reform is the genuine Far Right revolutionary article, Brexit in tooth and claw, whereas the Conservatives can only ever be an insipid tribute act, and because Reform has obviously evaded the responsibility in the public mind for the fiasco of the last Conservative government. But Farage, by polluting the Conservative Party with anti-Europeanism, over twenty years, and by helping secure Brexit is the real architect of that fiasco and all he promises the Conservatives is a second attempt at making Brexit work for his objectives, an incoherent combination of free market fundamentalism and interventionist nativism, wrapped up in flag and family, which must ferment, if implemented, an even greater fiasco. Or something far worse, reminiscent of Franco's Spain without the sunshine (or the faith).
Sad to say Labour don't do "attacking things head on" - it's not in their DNA. Wasn't it Skinner who said Labour doesn't signpost it weathervanes? That fits nicely with what we're seeing now. Europeanism is an abstract concept for most Labour politicians, off the perceived core business radar. They've always drifted along behind the Tories on Europe, never ever making the pace, save noble efforts by Blair. But can you remember anyone else from the Blair years standing out as a prominent advocate for Europeanism? If there were they've faded from my memory. Then after Brown had his Gillian Duffy moment in 2010 the cat got bigger and scarier and the pigeons more flappy and nervy. Labour were forced into taking a more prominent stance once a referendum, again not of their making, was called. Just because perhaps a majority of their MPs argued a case for remaining, don't imagine it was out of burning europhiliac conviction. Remain was, of course, the 'leave things as they are' option - right up Labour's street. I don't question that they genuinely thought being in the EU was okay but, in their blood, they had not morphed into expert advocates and persuaders for the positive benefits of the EU - and it showed. It was Labour's reaction to the passage of brexit that is more telling. Complete capitulation even to the hard Tory TCA and, from 2019 to 2024, back in that comfy position of having to do nothing but drift along behind the Tories. It's just a fact that in or out of power Labour don't have the skill, the will or the confidence to propose, plan and handle the crucial job of leading the way back into the EU. The parliamentary party is now knuckled down to living in its collective head every day with the dissonance of knowing that's where the UK belongs and needs to be. So, the realist position is to have no expectations whatever of the Labour leadership to make any move that relaxes or destabilises this imposed discipline of denial. They will provide for occasional little flurries and overtures, shows of interest to keep their pro-EU followers and supporters hopeful and believing (and voting?). That's the main purpose they'll be meant to serve. They must know the EU won't give favourable conditions to Third Countries and, you'd have thought, especially ones that had EU membership and rejected it. There's no evidence at all that Labour has any intention of seriously interfering with Brexitland status. It's back to 'leave things as they are' and let the years tick by and by...
Except if they don't get growth, Brexit will finish them as much as it has already finished the Conservatives, and the only path to growth is back into the EU.
@@JohnStevens-gp7geand since the path back into the EU takes decades, what do you think will that mean for this or the next parliamentary cycle and a labour or con effort to "secure growth"? They'll promise to take the country back into the EU to secure growth, nothing happens, and the blaming the EU game starts all over again.
@@ab-ym3bf I do not accept that path "takes decades". The barrier is the European commitment of the British, not the readiness, were that commitment to be truly and irreversibly forthcoming, of the Europeans. Labour are not "promising to take the country back into the EU to secure growth".And anyway, rejoining the EU secures growth by doing it not by just talking about it.
@@JohnStevens-gp7ge completely irrelevant what you accept or not, what counts is reality. As long as you speak of "the Europeans" you show you are not near ready, the mindset that led to brexit hasn't changed a bit. The brits will never be "truly" committed to what the EU stands for. And given that EU membership is decades away, the path to it will not bring economic relief since nothing in the actual situation will have changed.
@@ab-ym3bf I do not accept it because it is not the reality. Are not those in the EU Europeans? Are they not more entitled to that definition than those outside the EU? Is that not the whole burden of this debate? But your views and manner are well known to me as mine to you, after your regular and repetitive appearances on this site, so let us desist, to spare other readers.
Yes Brexit is "draining away" for the Tories and also for Reform/Farage. But - Farage has one big advantage - he isn't the Tories and he stands against the "old parties". The enemy for Farage now is not Brussels but the old parties and Westminster establishment. He's moved on from Brexit. Above all, the enemy for Farage now is "migration". That isn't going away. Indeed, with Starmer its likely to stay the same - or get worse. All the better for Reform.
The only hope for the Conservative Party is to reverse on Brexit completely and commit to rejoin. This would be a vote winner for sure! But in order to do so it needs a brave and level headed leader, something unfortunately unlikely for some time.
The current incarnation of the Conservatives is nothing like what it used to be. There is nothing remotely intrinsically conservative about the project of leaving the EU.
Join labour movement for Europe. It’s 100 mps can apply pressure on the government. They represent millions more than Reform. As do the greens and lib democrats.
If that is your general political orientation, yes. But Conservatives or ex-Conservatives must fashion their own case for rejoining the EU. We will not do so unless there is support clear across the political spectrum. European unity is not just a Centre-Left project.
Does the EU want the UK back? the answer is easy "NO". It will be difficult for the EU to forget all that has been said and done in recent years. EU is not ready at this stage to trust the UK and to take the risk to face the same mess a few years later after each election. What is needed is a genuine belief by a large majority of Britons "not 52%" in the EU project, and not because of the UK's economic decline >. This generation will probably not see the UK return to the EU.
Trouble with trying to rejoin EU - if the EU were to accept UK again as a member, UK would have to accept EU freedom of movement, which would mean many hundreds of thousands of people migrating into the UK again, on top of the already existing very high levels of inward migration. That is not likely to be popular with the electorate with its perceived effects on housing, jobs, NHS, schools, roads, infra etc.. Not a vote winner. And UK would most likely also have to accept the Euro this time round. Also not popular. As for the other question: will Brexit destroy the Conservative Party.... its already practically destroyed it. Can't see it putting the party back together again - for the reasons just given. Toxic topic. Keep Away.
I would have thought that a pro-EU LDP would be an absolute no-brainer. What are they afraid of? PS: most immigration to the UK has been non EU. Why don’t the LDs promise to brutally reduce the number of work (student) visas given out to ‘non EU’ - including American bankers, Japanese engineers etc…
The problem is the LDs are not credible, or acceptable, for a range of reasons, particularly to a large portion of the pro-EU business constituency, as well as to other pro-EU erstwhile Conservative voters, such as those who are not socially or culturally liberal. The LDs are still essentially a centre-left and progressive party, not a centre-right and conservative one. Which I think answers your concluding question.
@@rogerphelps9939I am sorry I have no idea what you mean by projection, but the reason the LDs won so many Conservative constituencies was because there was a wave of revulsion against the Conservative government and thus unprecedentedly high levels of tactical voting (by Labour voters to the LDs to get rid of the Conservatives in those seats). It was not a positive vote for what the LDs were offering (in as much that offering consisted of anything very precise, notably on the EU.) The number of 2019 Conservative voters who switched to LDs was dwarfed by the number who stayed at home (or voted Reform in protest). Nothing would be more logical or desirable than for the LDs to revive the Orange Book approach, though not obviously its eurosceptic elements) and move to the economic and social and cultural Right to occupy the space of the old Conservative Party, and so make the Centre-Right case for rejoining the EU. For make no mistake we shall only get back into the EU if there is support for doing so clear across the mainstream political spectrum in the UK. But I regret I do not, at the moment, see that happening, not least because as long as Brexit continues it will damn and divide the Conservatives and sustain Reform, which will enhance the chances of the LDs holding the seats they have gained (and perhaps getting a few more) without the risks of reviving the controversies and divisions of the 2016 referendum. So there is no driving tactical incentive for the LDs to become the Centre-Right party of rejoining the EU and leading on that programme. But please, demonstrate I am wrong.
The wider Tory membership (outside the PCP) comprises some pretty extreme Neoliberal Brexiteers. Witness theTory membership voting for Liz Truss, and previously for Boris Johnson, preferring them to Sunak and Hunt respectively. HENCE: 1) Whilst the wider electorate may be divided on the issue of Brexit, the local Conservative Constituency Parties (who SELECT Tory electoral candidates in the first place) will ALWAYS favour hard-line Brexiteers and hard-line Neoliberals. 2) The strong likelihood that either Boris Johnson could in due course return to lead the Tory Party, OR Farage could 'Jump Ship' and become their leader.
All true. But the erosion of support for Brexit is already undermining that. Truss' budget was the last throw of the dice by Conservatives seeking Singapore on Thames from Brexit. Now Reform is trying to do it without that baggage of prior failure. But the number of Conservative activists still up for that is declining (and dying). It is surprising, and encouraging, to see the hostility now towards both Johnson and Truss amongst some members (though Cleverly turning up for Johnson's launch of his comically mendacious memoir is a sign he still think the connection could win him votes.) I am sure we can rule out Johnson returning to Parliament as a Conservative (and he will not play side-kick to Farage, who anyway wants to destroy the Conservative Party, not join it. He believes the brand is bust and he may well be right.
@@JohnStevens-gp7ge For the moment, the majority of the UK electorate rightly see the Tories as being toxic. That said, the right wing press and media are relentessly promoting a hard-line, hard-Brexit, hard-Neoliberal agenda which always favours the right wing. The majority of the UK electorate are pig ignorant about economics and about politics, and this ignorance makes them easy to manipulate. The likes of Rupert Murdoch and Viscount Rothermere have a massive and malign influence upon the general population, by spreading misinformation and disinformation, which in turn means that the electorate are not getting anything like the full picture of how bad Brexit really is for the UK economy. I wish things were different. But then, had we had a well-informed electorate they wouldn't have voted for Cameron in 2010, and they wouldn't have voted Leave in 2016.
Demographics if the tories don't change and change quickly will be ousted forever, they will never be elected again,I can see the tories collapse and Scotland and probably Wales parting the uk,brexit has been the biggest mistake ever,am 27 and will never ever vote torie,,,
@@fcassmann ROFL! You are full of bitterness and hatred. Yet you swan off to Switzerland which has *never* been an EU member and never will. You hypocrite.
@@rebecca_noble Quite hilarious coming from a country that had to beg on its bare knees THREE TIMES to be admitted. We just laugh in the faces of you haughty, corrupt English.
Sigh... The "principal barrier" to any step towards EU membership (other than the fact that the UK electorate has rejected it), is the UK being nowhere near fulfilling the Copenhagen criteria. A country mile off. The UK national debt is over 100% GDP. It would take DECADES of sustained growth for the UK to get that down to 70%, let alone the EU accession bar of 60%. If you look imagine "rejoining the EU" is a few parliaments away, you are off your trolleys.
@@rogerphelps9939 rofl! You've obviously got no idea about the EU accession process. Go read the Copenhagen criteria. Or don't! I don't care if you are a total nincompoop! The UK is out of the EU and never going to seek EU membership. Starmer got it right. "Not in my lifetime". I go a step further. Never. The UK will NEVER seek EU membership. Ever.
@@rebecca_noble Oh dear. How will we in the EU survive without the loudmouthed, arrogant, selfish, dishonest, mendacious, corrupt, untrustworthy, unreliable, rude English 🤣
@@rebecca_noble , the debt to GDP limit is not mentioned as a criteria for joining the EU. It is mentioned as a criteria for joining the Euro, but with an exemption for new members from joining the Euro until the meet the required debt to gdp ratio (with a requirement to make progress to the required debt to gpd ratio)
@@katywalker8322 You can rest assured that the UK will be required to meet the € criteria before they will be granted membership, given their track record of cheating whenever they can and violating treaties signed. It may not be a requirement in the CC ..... but ANY memberstate can MAKE it a prerequisite or they will veto. That simple. And you can bet your arse we will. Greetings from civilization 🇪🇺
_I like Trump_ The same Trump that has been charged with a total of 88 felony counts across four criminal investigations, and has already been found guilty of 34 of them.The same Trump a jury found liable for sexual abuse, the 'grab 'em by the pussy!' Trump. And you *like* him. You sure have issues, Becca.
@@maartenaalsmeer well, I guess a lot of his adversaries hate him. Of course, butter wouldn't melt in your mouth, would it? I forgive him for mentioning the word "pussy", but I dare say he's right. Even if it was only male banter. But hey! You didn't get here by any miraculous conception, did you? You're not born of a virgin. I'm not a USA resident or voter. So my view is mere spectatorship. But regardless, I'd much prefer Trump as USA president than the other reprobates. Speaking personally. And no. I don't have "issues". I'm quite relaxed with it. Thank you so very much.
you mustt be one in a million. The vast majority of UK cirizens see Trump for what he really is. I dread what would happen if he wins. You can guarantee that it would be nothing good.
Make decisions after that think it was mistake,... better not working with us this lads..🥸..... return back to English society, probably they take politics as something can do today forget tomorrow, politics not like that....... power with responsibility, honest with honour, know what is majority and minority, laws + civilian+ security= country, wealth of country must divide even with majority and minority,....and so on...🥸...
0:44 An article published on 11 June 2024 summed it up perfectly when it quoted the Luxembourg prime minister Xavier Bettel’s comments from March 2018: “They were in with loads of opt-outs and now want out with loads of opt-ins.”
Not going to happen Starmer!
Oh yes it is. We will have to forgo the opt outs but we will be in.
@@rogerphelps9939 Yep, you will be in. In the year 3535, if man is still alive!
@@marinusvosyep if it takes 500 years thats how long it takes.
@@rogerphelps9939Modt of us voters now are unaware of theopt ours unlike the EU. Never taught to uk children. So we wont miss what we didn't know.
@@louis-philippearnhem6959 NO IT WONT HAPPEN, I LIKE STARMER BUT I THINK HE KNOWS IT, HES TRYING TO PLEASE BOTH SIDES, TORIES AND FARAGE HAVE LEFT US WITH A STINKING MESS AND STARMER WILL SMELL DEALING WITH IT TOLL ITS MOSTLY CLEARED UP
Just discussing Farage and Johnson nearly a decade after Brexit shows how far the English have to go to even begin realistic discussions on applying to the EU.
They are always stuck firmly in the past, so why should brexit be an exception.
In 10 years time the discussion will still not have moved from "only 37% voted for brexit".
The EU? Which is increasingly "far-right"?
Not just the tories, but if starmer can't see past his insistence of stupid tory red lines he'll be finished too
Thank you John & Brendan. I think it is also worth a mention that if Harris succeeds then Trump if finished, MAGA America will need to regroup, the Republican Party will have to regroup, and the Brexit Nationalists of the Reform & Conservative Parties in the UK will suffer a huge body blow, ... and a whole new vista opens for Starmer.
No. Republicans will retain the House and Senate most likely. We have a checks and balances system. Whoever wins will not help the UK. No trade deal will ever happen. Obama (your neo-lib savior) said it himself, “The UK will be in the back of the que.”😮 Americans call it ‘the line.’ Either way, in 30 years, England as you know it will cease to exist. Happy Brexit!
@JohnnyinMN not getting that trade deal would probably be quite helpful I reckon!
@@JohnnyinMN True. Even (or particularly perhaps) if the Democrats were to control Congress.
I sincerely hope that that will happen. Trump is a joke and he is reviled the whole world over except by those in Republican states where the education system has been destroyed. Trump did say that he loves the uneducated, didn't he.
Fingers crossed for Harris.
I agree that Brexit has been a disaster but it also created two incidental disasters: Johnson and Truss as PM.
I am not sure these are incidental disasters. Brexit has destroyed the political stability of the UK and the Premierships of Johnson and Truss are fitting symptoms of this instability.
@@adampowell5376 ALL CREATED BY FARAGE
Note how the Tory leadership candidates won't mention Brexit. I wonder why? The
Excellent clip
Very informative
Thank you 😊
Keep going! Let's hope that the tide of history sweeps Brexit away.
Rofl!! 🤣🤣🤣🤣😅😅😅
Try to put that one past the UK electorate!
You people are wallowing around in a quagmire of delusion.
Good luck with that. The EU will be gone by the time Britain rejoins.
@@Stoddardian The UK will never seek EU membership.
😏
Start with an inquiry into the impact of Brexit and the deliberate decision taken to undermine the country economically politically and culturally
It has, in exchange for an effortless, one-time victory in 2019.
The conservative party, as we once knew it, has already been destroyed.
Exactly I just posted that
At last, and thank goodness eh?
It is actually a funny discussion, to me. The UK geographically is always in Europe. Your political choice is to make bureaucracy more or less. Brexit is just a choice for more roadblocks to collaboration.
The Conservative Party will survive - not so the UK.
If the UK Union shatters the Conservative and Unionist Party shatters with it. (But it could shatter without that outcome too).
Agree 👍
I think that the uk will survive in some form, easiest prediction is that it will be a lot poorer. Portugal in the 70's?
@@JA-qi1fb Spain in the 30's is more my concern.
@@JohnStevens-gp7ge I do understand your concerns. Do you think we'll all be out & about on donkeys .. or eating them?
EU is stronger working together, especially in these difficult times. War is close and dictators are collaborating on our downfall. I would be happy for UK return.
Unfortunately until either the UK gets serious electoral reform, or either labour or conservative parties are prepared to face down the minority of the population who support Brexit then we won't get any move forward.
And women fought for your right to vote? 🥳
Many of these issues would be solved - or at least greatly mitigated - by replacing the UK's dysfunctional First Part The Post electoral system with Proportional Representation in tandem with the Single Transferable Vote. Sadly, however, Starmer has made it ABUNDANTLY clear that he has ZERO intention of EVER doing so. Au contraire, he has dug his heels in on this issue.
Moreover, Starmer has said that in his lifetime a Labour Government would NEVER seek for the UK to join the EU again. Indeed, one of his election slogans was 'Make Brexit Work.'
And then we have the problem that Starmer is seeking to continue the previous (Tory) govenment's plan to create numerous 'Special Enterprise Zones' and some more 'Free Ports' which would be devoid of government regulation.
Doing this will ensure that the UK will NOT be eligible to join the EU for a VERY, VERY long time - at least another 35 years in my opinion.
All of which delights the Kremlin/Putin, who is delighted to see as much fracturing of Europe as possible, and has poured considerable money and resources into ensuring that Brexit come about in the first place, and that it will continue unabated for the next fourty years or more.
Add to this comments such as Freedom of Movement being a thing of the past, and that we have to 'move on.'
To say that those of us who want to see the UK once more within the EU is an uphill struggle is an understatement.
It is clear that adopting a proportional voting system will be a condition in a UK (or its components) move to return to the EU.
Unfortunately even if we want to rejoin the damage is already done. It will take years to recover.
"We think Britain's place is in the European Union". Lots of European Union citizens think the opposite. Britain had a chance to integrate but chose to leave. No more opt-outs, no more exceptionalism. It's over and done.
Nope
@@nicks4934
While a member it was the UK who prevented any attempt at a european defense cooperation.
Now that the UK is out this idea finaly advances, hopefully not to late.
Bringing the UK back in the EU would again reinstate the blockade of all closer european cooperation.
That would be extremely destructive for the EU.
Im sorry you have to suffer from the economic problems the UK voted to take upon itself, but we cant help you without destroying the EU.
Interesting video thanks. Time for the young to change the conversation using modern communications. No longer does TV ad newspapers have a stranglehold on mass communications. Both Cons and labour pro-EU groups need change the discussion within those parties.
Unfortunately, it's unlikely that the Conservative Party is on the way to being destroyed. They will be pragmatic enough to survive, somehow, like they always have.
They will be subsumed by the reform party sooner or later, much like the tea party and MAGA shift in the US. Basically they are now Republicans in name only. The Tories (the old “moderate” party are dead and buried), just aren’t attracting anyone talented enough to save them.
@@col.hertford9855 Yes, I can see that happening (infact, it's happening as we speak). But I can't see a sudden "destruction" involving them being overtaken by Reform in a general election. Having said that, at the last election they got their worst ever result, so we are living through historical changes!
@@montornes1979 As I touch on in the piece, the Scottish and Welsh devolved elections could be critical: there seems to be a real chance Reform could destroy the Conservatives in both contests. It is difficult to imagine the Conservative leader surviving that imv.
Yes, the PR system in Scotland and Wales makes this a realistic prospect. And Jenrick or Badenoch will be on thin ice anyway.
I very much doubt that.
I don't care what destroys it, as long as it goes permanently.
I think the Tories will eventually split into two different parties composing of moderate Re-joiners and far right Brexiteers. I don't think that those different factions can live with each other anymore. Obviously they've been successful in the past precisely because they've been a broad church, but there are now millions of moderate Remainer Tories who are embarrassed and angry about what their party has done.
You love telling the narrative you fantasise over.
The UK will never seek to be entangled in EU again. That's the reality. It doesn't matter what scenarios inhabit the minds of anti brexiters.
The UK is stuck with a debt of well over 60% GDP for DECADES TO COME.
That's why Starmer knows that the UK will not be joining the EU in his lifetime.
It ain't gonna happen.
And, Newsflash. There are ZERO "remainers". We've *left* the EU.
@@rebecca_noble People still apply the word Remainer to those who hate Brexit, it's a common term, but you will note I also used the word re-joiner.
@@danielcarr7090 It's cloud cuckoo land. Pure delusion.
@@rebecca_noble Complete and utter bollocks. It will happen and sooner than you might imagine.
The EU united wartime enemies, but Brexiteers' ignorance and contempt of the EU's achievements caused more diplomatic damage.
What achievements? Flooding Europe with Third Worlders?
The conservatives can never out reform reform. They will never leave the comfort of the party.
They cannot out-Reform Reform because Reform is the genuine Far Right revolutionary article, Brexit in tooth and claw, whereas the Conservatives can only ever be an insipid tribute act, and because Reform has obviously evaded the responsibility in the public mind for the fiasco of the last Conservative government. But Farage, by polluting the Conservative Party with anti-Europeanism, over twenty years, and by helping secure Brexit is the real architect of that fiasco and all he promises the Conservatives is a second attempt at making Brexit work for his objectives, an incoherent combination of free market fundamentalism and interventionist nativism, wrapped up in flag and family, which must ferment, if implemented, an even greater fiasco. Or something far worse, reminiscent of Franco's Spain without the sunshine (or the faith).
Sad to say Labour don't do "attacking things head on" - it's not in their DNA. Wasn't it Skinner who said Labour doesn't signpost it weathervanes? That fits nicely with what we're seeing now. Europeanism is an abstract concept for most Labour politicians, off the perceived core business radar. They've always drifted along behind the Tories on Europe, never ever making the pace, save noble efforts by Blair. But can you remember anyone else from the Blair years standing out as a prominent advocate for Europeanism? If there were they've faded from my memory. Then after Brown had his Gillian Duffy moment in 2010 the cat got bigger and scarier and the pigeons more flappy and nervy.
Labour were forced into taking a more prominent stance once a referendum, again not of their making, was called. Just because perhaps a majority of their MPs argued a case for remaining, don't imagine it was out of burning europhiliac conviction. Remain was, of course, the 'leave things as they are' option - right up Labour's street. I don't question that they genuinely thought being in the EU was okay but, in their blood, they had not morphed into expert advocates and persuaders for the positive benefits of the EU - and it showed.
It was Labour's reaction to the passage of brexit that is more telling. Complete capitulation even to the hard Tory TCA and, from 2019 to 2024, back in that comfy position of having to do nothing but drift along behind the Tories.
It's just a fact that in or out of power Labour don't have the skill, the will or the confidence to propose, plan and handle the crucial job of leading the way back into the EU. The parliamentary party is now knuckled down to living in its collective head every day with the dissonance of knowing that's where the UK belongs and needs to be. So, the realist position is to have no expectations whatever of the Labour leadership to make any move that relaxes or destabilises this imposed discipline of denial.
They will provide for occasional little flurries and overtures, shows of interest to keep their pro-EU followers and supporters hopeful and believing (and voting?). That's the main purpose they'll be meant to serve. They must know the EU won't give favourable conditions to Third Countries and, you'd have thought, especially ones that had EU membership and rejected it.
There's no evidence at all that Labour has any intention of seriously interfering with Brexitland status. It's back to 'leave things as they are' and let the years tick by and by...
Except if they don't get growth, Brexit will finish them as much as it has already finished the Conservatives, and the only path to growth is back into the EU.
@@JohnStevens-gp7geand since the path back into the EU takes decades, what do you think will that mean for this or the next parliamentary cycle and a labour or con effort to "secure growth"?
They'll promise to take the country back into the EU to secure growth, nothing happens, and the blaming the EU game starts all over again.
@@ab-ym3bf I do not accept that path "takes decades". The barrier is the European commitment of the British, not the readiness, were that commitment to be truly and irreversibly forthcoming, of the Europeans. Labour are not "promising to take the country back into the EU to secure growth".And anyway, rejoining the EU secures growth by doing it not by just talking about it.
@@JohnStevens-gp7ge completely irrelevant what you accept or not, what counts is reality.
As long as you speak of "the Europeans" you show you are not near ready, the mindset that led to brexit hasn't changed a bit. The brits will never be "truly" committed to what the EU stands for.
And given that EU membership is decades away, the path to it will not bring economic relief since nothing in the actual situation will have changed.
@@ab-ym3bf I do not accept it because it is not the reality. Are not those in the EU Europeans? Are they not more entitled to that definition than those outside the EU? Is that not the whole burden of this debate? But your views and manner are well known to me as mine to you, after your regular and repetitive appearances on this site, so let us desist, to spare other readers.
One can hope.
Yes Brexit is "draining away" for the Tories and also for Reform/Farage. But - Farage has one big advantage - he isn't the Tories and he stands against the "old parties". The enemy for Farage now is not Brussels but the old parties and Westminster establishment. He's moved on from Brexit. Above all, the enemy for Farage now is "migration". That isn't going away. Indeed, with Starmer its likely to stay the same - or get worse. All the better for Reform.
The only hope for the Conservative Party is to reverse on Brexit completely and commit to rejoin. This would be a vote winner for sure! But in order to do so it needs a brave and level headed leader, something unfortunately unlikely for some time.
Already has, mate. Already has.
Would anyone miss the current incarnation of the Tories?
I know many people have nostalgia for how it used to be, but that party is long gone
The current incarnation of the Conservatives is nothing like what it used to be. There is nothing remotely intrinsically conservative about the project of leaving the EU.
Yes it has
Join labour movement for Europe. It’s 100 mps can apply pressure on the government. They represent millions more than Reform. As do the greens and lib democrats.
If that is your general political orientation, yes. But Conservatives or ex-Conservatives must fashion their own case for rejoining the EU. We will not do so unless there is support clear across the political spectrum. European unity is not just a Centre-Left project.
always an enlightened discussion - a delight to listen to.
Does the EU want the UK back? the answer is easy "NO".
It will be difficult for the EU to forget all that has been said and done in recent years. EU is not ready at this stage to trust the UK and to take the risk to face the same mess a few years later after each election. What is needed is a genuine belief by a large majority of Britons "not 52%" in the EU project, and not because of the UK's economic decline >. This generation will probably not see the UK return to the EU.
Trouble with trying to rejoin EU - if the EU were to accept UK again as a member, UK would have to accept EU freedom of movement, which would mean many hundreds of thousands of people migrating into the UK again, on top of the already existing very high levels of inward migration. That is not likely to be popular with the electorate with its perceived effects on housing, jobs, NHS, schools, roads, infra etc.. Not a vote winner. And UK would most likely also have to accept the Euro this time round. Also not popular. As for the other question: will Brexit destroy the Conservative Party.... its already practically destroyed it. Can't see it putting the party back together again - for the reasons just given. Toxic topic. Keep Away.
I would have thought that a pro-EU LDP would be an absolute no-brainer.
What are they afraid of?
PS: most immigration to the UK has been non EU. Why don’t the LDs promise to brutally reduce the number of work (student) visas given out to ‘non EU’ - including American bankers, Japanese engineers etc…
The problem is the LDs are not credible, or acceptable, for a range of reasons, particularly to a large portion of the pro-EU business constituency, as well as to other pro-EU erstwhile Conservative voters, such as those who are not socially or culturally liberal. The LDs are still essentially a centre-left and progressive party, not a centre-right and conservative one.
Which I think answers your concluding question.
@@JohnStevens-gp7ge You are guilty of projection. Why on Earth did Tory voters switch to the Lib Demsen mass in a slew of Tory constituencies ?
@@rogerphelps9939I am sorry I have no idea what you mean by projection, but the reason the LDs won so many Conservative constituencies was because there was a wave of revulsion against the Conservative government and thus unprecedentedly high levels of tactical voting (by Labour voters to the LDs to get rid of the Conservatives in those seats). It was not a positive vote for what the LDs were offering (in as much that offering consisted of anything very precise, notably on the EU.) The number of 2019 Conservative voters who switched to LDs was dwarfed by the number who stayed at home (or voted Reform in protest). Nothing would be more logical or desirable than for the LDs to revive the Orange Book approach, though not obviously its eurosceptic elements) and move to the economic and social and cultural Right to occupy the space of the old Conservative Party, and so make the Centre-Right case for rejoining the EU. For make no mistake we shall only get back into the EU if there is support for doing so clear across the mainstream political spectrum in the UK. But I regret I do not, at the moment, see that happening, not least because as long as Brexit continues it will damn and divide the Conservatives and sustain Reform, which will enhance the chances of the LDs holding the seats they have gained (and perhaps getting a few more) without the risks of reviving the controversies and divisions of the 2016 referendum. So there is no driving tactical incentive for the LDs to become the Centre-Right party of rejoining the EU and leading on that programme. But please, demonstrate I am wrong.
The wider Tory membership (outside the PCP) comprises some pretty extreme Neoliberal Brexiteers. Witness theTory membership voting for Liz Truss, and previously for Boris Johnson, preferring them to Sunak and Hunt respectively. HENCE:
1) Whilst the wider electorate may be divided on the issue of Brexit, the local Conservative Constituency Parties (who SELECT Tory electoral candidates in the first place) will ALWAYS favour hard-line Brexiteers and hard-line Neoliberals.
2) The strong likelihood that either Boris Johnson could in due course return to lead the Tory Party, OR Farage could 'Jump Ship' and become their leader.
All true. But the erosion of support for Brexit is already undermining that. Truss' budget was the last throw of the dice by Conservatives seeking Singapore on Thames from Brexit. Now Reform is trying to do it without that baggage of prior failure. But the number of Conservative activists still up for that is declining (and dying). It is surprising, and encouraging, to see the hostility now towards both Johnson and Truss amongst some members (though Cleverly turning up for Johnson's launch of his comically mendacious memoir is a sign he still think the connection could win him votes.) I am sure we can rule out Johnson returning to Parliament as a Conservative (and he will not play side-kick to Farage, who anyway wants to destroy the Conservative Party, not join it. He believes the brand is bust and he may well be right.
@@JohnStevens-gp7ge For the moment, the majority of the UK electorate rightly see the Tories as being toxic. That said, the right wing press and media are relentessly promoting a hard-line, hard-Brexit, hard-Neoliberal agenda which always favours the right wing.
The majority of the UK electorate are pig ignorant about economics and about politics, and this ignorance makes them easy to manipulate.
The likes of Rupert Murdoch and Viscount Rothermere have a massive and malign influence upon the general population, by spreading misinformation and disinformation, which in turn means that the electorate are not getting anything like the full picture of how bad Brexit really is for the UK economy.
I wish things were different. But then, had we had a well-informed electorate they wouldn't have voted for Cameron in 2010, and they wouldn't have voted Leave in 2016.
Demographics if the tories don't change and change quickly will be ousted forever, they will never be elected again,I can see the tories collapse and Scotland and probably Wales parting the uk,brexit has been the biggest mistake ever,am 27 and will never ever vote torie,,,
@@timelwell7002,well said 👏👏👏
@@timelwell7002 All true, sadly.
Out means out.
Stay out.
🇪🇺🇳🇱
Sacked means sacked.
The EU can stay sacked.
@@rebecca_noble
We don't care.
Have fun.
🇪🇺🇳🇱
@@fcassmann ROFL! You are full of bitterness and hatred.
Yet you swan off to Switzerland which has *never* been an EU member and never will.
You hypocrite.
@@rebecca_noble
Use Google and learn what the status of Switzerland is.
Bye bye.
Have fun.
🇪🇺🇳🇱
@@rebecca_noble Quite hilarious coming from a country that had to beg on its bare knees THREE TIMES to be admitted. We just laugh in the faces of you haughty, corrupt English.
It as f all to do with Brexit.
And your still coming out with your normal bull shit.
Mark, your grammar is still very poor. "And your still" should be "And you're" Make an effort and learn where apostrophes are needed.
@@richardwaters7770 The thing is that I have Dyslexia,and the other is I don't give a shit what you think.
Sigh...
The "principal barrier" to any step towards EU membership (other than the fact that the UK electorate has rejected it), is the UK being nowhere near fulfilling the Copenhagen criteria. A country mile off.
The UK national debt is over 100% GDP.
It would take DECADES of sustained growth for the UK to get that down to 70%, let alone the EU accession bar of 60%.
If you look imagine "rejoining the EU" is a few parliaments away, you are off your trolleys.
There are plenty of candidates for EU membership whose national debt exceeded 100% of GDP. It is amazing what can be done given the will.
@@rogerphelps9939 rofl!
You've obviously got no idea about the EU accession process.
Go read the Copenhagen criteria.
Or don't! I don't care if you are a total nincompoop!
The UK is out of the EU and never going to seek EU membership.
Starmer got it right. "Not in my lifetime". I go a step further. Never. The UK will NEVER seek EU membership. Ever.
@@rebecca_noble Oh dear. How will we in the EU survive without the loudmouthed, arrogant, selfish, dishonest, mendacious, corrupt, untrustworthy, unreliable, rude English 🤣
@@rebecca_noble , the debt to GDP limit is not mentioned as a criteria for joining the EU. It is mentioned as a criteria for joining the Euro, but with an exemption for new members from joining the Euro until the meet the required debt to gdp ratio (with a requirement to make progress to the required debt to gpd ratio)
@@katywalker8322 You can rest assured that the UK will be required to meet the € criteria before they will be granted membership, given their track record of cheating whenever they can and violating treaties signed.
It may not be a requirement in the CC ..... but ANY memberstate can MAKE it a prerequisite or they will veto.
That simple.
And you can bet your arse we will.
Greetings from civilization 🇪🇺
I like Trump. If he wins the USA Presidency I would welcome him here in the UK. Not like the uncouth, rude and disgraceful left.
_I like Trump_ The same Trump that has been charged with a total of 88 felony counts across four criminal investigations, and has already been found guilty of 34 of them.The same Trump a jury found liable for sexual abuse, the 'grab 'em by the pussy!' Trump. And you *like* him. You sure have issues, Becca.
@@maartenaalsmeer well, I guess a lot of his adversaries hate him.
Of course, butter wouldn't melt in your mouth, would it?
I forgive him for mentioning the word "pussy", but I dare say he's right.
Even if it was only male banter.
But hey! You didn't get here by any miraculous conception, did you? You're not born of a virgin.
I'm not a USA resident or voter. So my view is mere spectatorship.
But regardless, I'd much prefer Trump as USA president than the other reprobates. Speaking personally.
And no. I don't have "issues". I'm quite relaxed with it. Thank you so very much.
you mustt be one in a million. The vast majority of UK cirizens see Trump for what he really is. I dread what would happen if he wins. You can guarantee that it would be nothing good.
What a vile excuse for a woman, making a rapist welcome, FFS
Well hopefully you'll be as welcoming when the IMF take up residence in London, because that is where your nonsense is taking you.
The price is too big to discard.. 🥸
Make decisions after that think it was mistake,... better not working with us this lads..🥸..... return back to English society, probably they take politics as something can do today forget tomorrow, politics not like that....... power with responsibility, honest with honour, know what is majority and minority, laws + civilian+ security= country, wealth of country must divide even with majority and minority,....and so on...🥸...