Is the climate glass half full or half empty? IPCC Vice Chair Prof. Diana Ürge-Vorsatz
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 25 พ.ย. 2024
- In this interview with the Vice Chair of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), Professor Diana Ürge-Vorsatz, gives her perspective on a range of critical issues - in part presenting a glass-half-full perspective, despite so many mounting challenges.
This was recorded on Saturday 16th Nov at the midway point through COP29. Since the COP has ended, countries have finalised a $300 billion dollar pledge to vulnerable nations set against a required $1.3 trillion by 2035. Trust between so-called developed and developing or vulnerable nations remains stubbornly low. But meeting the $1.3 trillion required funding is not a charity gift, but rather a collaborative investment in all our futures. Until we collectively realise the only way forward is with all hands seen as equal, the fate for us all remains entirely bleak.
More COP29 interviews are on the way as well as an interview this week with the author of a new study on the state of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) that risks up-ending all our climate rhetoric to date.
If you want a fast paced journey through the last eight COPs from Paris to the UAE then order my book COPOUT online, in paperback or audio, from all main retailers. This was my 9th COPOUT experience and I’ll be writing a supplementary chapter in the coming weeks that will include astonishing in-person admissions from delegates of fossil fuel producing nations as well as forays into the north of Azerbaijan through decimated landscapes and threadbare ecosystems.
Thanks to all subscribers!
Summary:
IPCC's role at COP29: The IPCC's primary function is to provide scientific knowledge to support climate negotiations. This includes hosting events at a pavilion in collaboration with the WMO and Mary Foundation, participating in discussions as a scientific voice, and strengthening partnerships with organizations that integrate science into decision-making.
Methane emissions focus: Methane, a potent but short-lived greenhouse gas, has seen rising concentrations. Regulating methane emissions offers faster results in reducing climate impacts compared to carbon dioxide. Progress on methane at COP29 is viewed as critical and achievable.
Understanding the 1.5°C target: Despite media claims, crossing the 1.5°C mark for short periods does not mean the Paris goal is permanently breached. The IPCC evaluates long-term averages, which currently place warming at 1.3°C. However, the rapidly shrinking carbon budget underscores the urgency for action.
Progress since the Paris Agreement: Global warming projections have improved, with worst-case scenarios of 5-6°C now considered unlikely. Current trajectories estimate warming between 2.5 and 4°C. Renewables supply a growing share of global electricity, though demand outpaces clean energy growth.
Balancing supply and demand: Diana emphasized the need for climate strategies that combine clean energy production with demand reduction. Solutions include retrofitting buildings for energy efficiency and designing cities that minimize car dependency, improving quality of life and reducing emissions.
Political and industrial challenges: Policymakers often face constraints from political and social realities, hindering rapid fossil fuel reductions. Diana advocates for pragmatic strategies that align climate actions with societal priorities and provide viable alternatives before phasing out fossil fuels.
Demand-side climate solutions: Highlighting the co-benefits of demand-focused pathways, such as improved air quality and more inclusive urban environments, Diana stressed that reducing energy and material demand is key to achieving climate goals.
Optimism despite obstacles: Subnational actors like cities, businesses, and civil society are driving progress, often independent of high-level political will. Advances in renewables and decentralized initiatives provide hope for climate solutions.
Scepticism about Solar Radiation Management (SRM): Diana expressed personal concerns about the unknowns surrounding SRM and stressed the need for more research before considering its implementation as a geoengineering strategy. She remains optimistic about achieving emission reductions through existing and scalable solutions.
Do we really have to wait 20 years to declare that the 1.5 boundary has been breached when each year is hotter than the previous?
Technically no, it won't take another 20 years, at the rate we're travelling the arbitrary 'climate' boundary will be broken within 10years
@@PeterTodd It wasn't arbitrary, and it was originally 1.5 above the 1700 baseline. It was 'picked' because we already knew that was the temp rise that would tip the glaciers. Then we got the IPCC and the COP's (politics got involved). They moved the baseline up to 1850 (hiding nearly 0.5 of warming). They refused to include methane for decades (because, just like the 1700-1850 shift, they wouldn't be able to keep the "we have time narrative")
We've already breached 2 with the new scale....and people are still talking about 1.5...madness.
Buckle up...nature is now back in control.....we're on our way to +8/10....because that's the amount of CO2 that is in short term natural storage. The more fossil we add the higher the temp at the end.
And we cant lock it back up....and it will never get naturally locked away again. we're shifting the climate back to a pre-carboniferous one.
Heating in UK is more than all emissions from electricity, all done with gas, half of electricity is gas and Qatar turns natural gas into jet fuel and gives it away free and the removal of coal from Uk is why places like Australia are the world's largest exporter, all wells leak and are under reported and they still claim confusion of where this "jump" came from. Govt policy is driving climate change and we have zero control and the question is "half full or half empty"?
Agreed!!
Several years ago we claimed we need to put in the back gear. All countries have to stop polluting and burning anything furthermore we have to try to suck or bring the CO2 down somehow. The benchmark was 350 ppm in 1988! Animal numbers need to be reduces. Meat alternatives instead. Stop deforestation, fight desertification against all odds and plant trees, ecological farming and irrigation in terrasses as they did in Persia and Spain before. Of course renewable energy all over, education, that all needs investments, health care, equal rights and fair pay! Probably the money system needs to be reformed. Negative investment rates could bring the money down from the super rich to the million poor. At least taxation has to be installed and laws that stop all the pollution and waste of energy and resources. Good luck to all. It is little time left for most rainforest, ecosystems and islands!
@@alexandrawagner5963 "Animal numbers need to be reduces. Meat alternatives instead."
Completely wrong, globally we feed more crop waste than food we grow for them and the rest is non arable land. Nothing can be cleaner than non arable land produce.
"Negative investment rates could bring the money down from the super rich to the million poor. At least taxation has to be installed and laws that stop all the pollution and waste of energy and resources. "
We are a debt based system, all money is debt, and all goes back to zero, we need to change the debt based system run by bankers
Boring....she's just towing the hopium-infused IPCC line. I'm sick of the 'it's not too late, but we must act now' narrative. I've heard it for 15 years and it's starting to wear me out. The IPCC and the CoPs stand in the way of meaningful climate action.
They only reached agreement so they'd be allowed to go home
Doubt they'll stick to their promises
Aye yi yi, lots of dancing around those questions, trying to make it sound like it's all going to be ok. Yikes.
Couldn’t listen to her after the first 5 minutes … waffle !
James Hansen’s paper ‘in the pipeline’ and follow ups since publication, from his team and Leon Simons in particular should show any thinking observers that we have this game all wrong.
If the correlation to temp is CO2eq … then surely we should be focussed on that number and NOT temp as that lag is years in the making and longer it seams for scientists to be brave enough to state the obvious… we have no way off this bus)
Seminal paper in this space !!!
Peter Hamilton - "If the correlation to temp is CO2eq … then surely we should be focussed on that number..."
Yep. Per NOAA, the global radiative forcing of the longer-term GHGs (i.e. CO₂, CH₄, N₂O, CFCs, HCFCs, and the HFCs), expressed as CO₂₋ₑ for year-2023 is 534 ppm, with an Annual Greenhouse Gas Index (AGGI) of 1.515 (relative to AGGI = 1 in 1990).
The Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum (MMCO) lasted from 17.5 to 14.5 million years ago, with a global mean surface temperature (GMST) of approximately 18.4 °C, about 3 °C warmer than today and 4 °C warmer than preindustrial. Boron-based records indicate 𝘱CO₂ varied between 300 and 500 ppm during the MMCO.
Per Berkeley Earth's 𝗢𝗰𝘁𝗼𝗯𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟰 𝗧𝗲𝗺𝗽𝗲𝗿𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗨𝗽𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗲, published on 21 Nov 2024:
• 𝘛𝘩𝘦 12-𝘮𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘩 𝘮𝘰𝘷𝘪𝘯𝘨-𝘢𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘨𝘦 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘶𝘦𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘯𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘳𝘥 𝘸𝘢𝘳𝘮 𝘢𝘵 1.64 ± 0.07 °𝘊 (2.95 ± 0.13 °𝘍) 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘷𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 1850-1900 𝘢𝘷𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘨𝘦.
• 2024 𝘪𝘴 𝘢𝘭𝘮𝘰𝘴𝘵 𝘤𝘦𝘳𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯 𝘵𝘰 𝘣𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘸𝘢𝘳𝘮𝘦𝘴𝘵 𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳 𝘰𝘯 𝘳𝘦𝘤𝘰𝘳𝘥.
Using the Copernicus ERA5 GMST dataset, the 2-year running mean breached the +1.5 °C threshold relative to the 1850-1900 baseline earlier this month.
The global mean surface temperature (GMST) anomaly is currently about +1.3 °C (30-year mean) relative to the 1850-1900 baseline.
The GMST anomaly will inevitably breach the +1.5 °C (30-year mean) threshold, and that's likely sometime around 2030, perhaps as early as 2028, or perhaps as late as 2036.
And the GMST anomaly is currently on a trajectory to breach the +2.0 °C (30-year mean) threshold likely sometime in the 2040s, maybe as late as 2062.
See the 𝘊𝘢𝘳𝘣𝘰𝘯 𝘉𝘳𝘪𝘦𝘧 article published 13 Jun 2024, by Zeke Hausfather headlined 𝗔𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘆𝘀𝗶𝘀: 𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗱 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝘁 𝗺𝗲𝗮𝗻𝘀 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗯𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗰𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝟭.𝟱𝗖 𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗹𝗶𝗺𝗶𝘁.
See also the peer-reviewed scientific paper by Hansen 𝘦𝘵 𝘢𝘭. (2023) titled 𝗚𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗶𝗽𝗲𝗹𝗶𝗻𝗲.
The rate of warming is accelerating. From 1970-2008, the GMST rose by 0.18 °C/decade. From 2010 onwards, the rate has jumped up to 0.3 °C/decade.
The Earth System has left the climate of the Holocene (last 11,700 years of the Earth's history), transiting towards a warming climate similar to the Mid-Pliocene (circa 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago) by mid-century, on the way towards the Mid-Miocene (15.97 ± 0.05 million years ago to 11.608 ± 0.005 Ma) by perhaps the end of this century.
𝘕𝘢𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦 𝘚𝘶𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘣𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘺 published a paper by Timothy Lenton 𝘦𝘵. 𝘢𝘭. on 22 May 2023, titled 𝗤𝘂𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗳𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗵𝘂𝗺𝗮𝗻 𝗰𝗼𝘀𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗴𝗹𝗼𝗯𝗮𝗹 𝘄𝗮𝗿𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗴. It included Fig. 4: Regions and population densities exposed to unprecedented heat at different levels of global warming. Climate change has already put ~9% of people (>600 million) outside this niche. Around +2.7 °C global warming could leave one-third (22-39%) of people outside the niche. This could occur as soon as 40 years hence, if the current trend of accelerated warming is maintained, in the period 2060-2070.
@ nice bit of info thanks.
20 year running average. Go home, this lady is part of the problem
It's a political crime being commited, not a science problem. Thanks Nick, good luck
Time is not on our side.
She is talking about finding ways for people to continue with the lifestyle they want. How do we make that happen with renewables when increased natural disasters force us to rebuild homes and build and buy new vehicles?
This will keep fossil fuels in the loop even as we build up renewable.
You can knock down the flames of a fire but smoldering is the same destruction only slower.
Cop would do better if they did only one thing , insist everyone watches Peter Carter latest climate emergency post and ask for a response , that is all and no reason to travel at all .
💯 agree
Magicians! What an impressive sleight of hand they have pulled off?! Let's keep them looking at emissions so they don't notice that our very profitable mining is the problem.
Thank you so much for this amazing video! Could you help me with something unrelated: My OKX wallet holds some USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). How should I go about transferring them to Binance?
The glass is filling … who’s gonna do the pouring?
Nick for cop 30 president
Hm, the oily spoilers would have to be repelled...
The sound is too low for me.
I feel as if there are groups of scientists who live in entirely different universes wrt each other. This Prof doesn’t seem to have the sense of urgency that other researchers have. I would like to see them in a discussion with each other, to debate the data.
fffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffffff
**Exactly a QUARTER** = 300.000.000.000 / 1.200.000.000.000
Paris2015 was a crime. Baku is even worse. _Rich men give a finger_
One can measure the level of desperation via the efforts needed to keep Hope alive......
1984
Diana 💚 thank you for your positivity and hard work
Waffle, waffle..on and on and....yawn.........show me the money and we'll spend it on....?.........ourselves.........hm...
Cliumate? Hahahaha
I know!
No change then in the power, privilege and wealth structure. Where's Kevin Anderson and Peter kalmus? They know better than to waste their time at another COP OUT. Cheers Nick and good wishes