I understand where your sleepless nights come from. I’ve been there, it might still happen once in a while. As a recreational (well, studied recreational) I have actually had your thoughts, however, with all that said, a saying from Lex comes to mind: If you see any of these top players do something, you should 100% do it as well in the same spot even if you don’t understand (yet) why they do it. The math checks out in the Spraggy hand, the math checks out in your hand ( did you know you can shove that exact hand vs even a HJ open - it’s that strong ). When the math checks out, you do it, doesn’t matter what happens, this is the only way you actually play poker. It might look stupid at times you might make mistakes along the way, just focus on correcting the mistakes and move on. As a side note, GTO tools do not account for bounties, if you factor in the bounty as a stack and add it to the pot as dead money, you might be surprised of the results (the math is: every bounty is worth a starting stack, and you add the number of stacks that represent the bounty as dead money in the pot - in your case, make the BTN RFI bigger (add the starting stack to it so it will be like 7BB), the run GTO again, 95s might be a call and you have way less fold equity then you think). As a side side note, you mentioned that late reg is over, but the timer in the video is still ticking and you are in the level 6 of the tournament( talking about the exact spot in the video, not saying it didn’t happen in the spot you mentioned), this probably means that in the spot in the video, you have less than a starting stack and he has even bigger odds to call. Good luck! I like your content
Spraggy is playing a hyper-turbo PKO and he 5x covers. His hand is suited & and should never be dominated other than pocket pairs. He has 37% equity pre-flop for a hit of 20% of his stack. He covers the UTG raiser so he isn’t incentivised to call him off unless he has an absolute monster which he won’t have a lot of the time, 99, TT, KQs, KQo, AJs etc. are all folding as Spraggy is showing strength 4betting all in against UTG raise. Idk if that’s what your guy was thinking but I a sure you Spraggy was thinking that
Unfortunately there are a lot of these types of players online. They are simply just rec players who are willing to gamble in these types of spots. It’s not right but they do it. Just remember these type of players will always lose in the long run and you can take advantage of that.
Do you run pre flop equity ranges? I think the 95s guy is just a donk play, but spraggy knew he was about 27% with a big stack, also it’s a hyper so shoving ranges wider for the shorties. Add the 500 euro bounty makes it tempting. The 95s is the absolute bottom of a 27% range and the showing range crushes it. I think spraggy folds there 😂
These low cards can perform well in all-ins as he doesn't re-shove A7, rarely A4s as a bluff. Considering the opponent has a very low stack for a bounty worth half the buy-in, he shouldn't be bluffing in this spot with anything other than A5s maybe, as he will induce much calling behind him. And you still get two live-cards with 74s in that case. Only thing that crushes you is overpairs, while you are somewhat connected and suited as well. There are dead chips from the initial raiser and he has fold-equity against him, which makes the heads-up (in case he folds) way more profitable. It is not the line you should always take with 74s but it can work out for you from time to time. The only thing that seems a bit strange to me is that he wanted a call from the initial raiser. It seems greedy to me as he would be putting a vast majority of his stack into the pot just for one more bounty. I would use this play only as an isolation to go heads-up and wouldn't be happy to see a call after two re-jams. Lastly, he probably had information on his opponents that we cannot know by just watching a highlight video. As for your hand, that's the shit you expect to see even in mid-stakes. People hunting min-bounties with junk. As you said, you played your hand 100% the correct way and I can understand that him hitting the 4-outer on the river can be tilting. In the long run you make so much money off of these calls.
@@therealseagullpete You can run the equities in HRC. When half the buyin is the bounty, its probably not a bad gamble. I don't even know if its correct, I just don't think its terrible.
As a fellow clueless poker player I see it exactly the same as you do!! I feel in your online hand it is a case of “it’s only a small buy in and I could win a min bounty here” type scenario. I haven’t watched too much scraggy but what I have he defo knows what he is doing in the game!! I think in this instance though it is mental play! There can be no way he thinks he is good there?!? The only way I can possibly rationalise the situation is, I think, he is maybe thinking more about content, very different video if he loses that hand, maybe doesn’t even make the edit and just explains at a later hand he “lost a few hands” or something!! Hope it helps you sleep knowing you are not going mad thinking you are the only one perplexed by this!!!
You could be on to something there. I hadn't considered the content aspect of it all. Seems like an expensive way to get a clip for social media though lol. At least I'm not the only one that thinks its mad. That is good to know. What level of buy in do you think it would take before he didn't make that sort of play though?
All depends on bankroll or if he has people backing him, can’t see that type of play going down too well if someone has staked you!! It might not be worth it but if he gets a few million views off it then he has earned more than the bounty!!
Spraggy doesn't share his actual thoughts. He shares what he wants to share. Maybe he put them on AK or AQ. When I'm playing live and I believe someone shoves AK pre I call with hands like 45 or 56 suited. Spraggy probably narrowed down their ranges with some tells and jammed thinking he was flipping.
@@therealseagullpete you would get destroyed because all the decisions are highly situational for each specific person that plays. 😂 I know you don't make money playing poker.
Any person who plays the game has degeneracy tendencies otherwise they wouldn't play the game. If there weren't bounty implications, the 74s would have been mucked without a single thought. If the hand wasn't suited, it would have been folded. Spraggy knows the numbers, he wouldn't choose this spot every time. Poker can be a very instinctual game especially for thinking and intuitive players. The way you play hands can change radically depending on mood, feeling and many other fundamentals. This is what makes the potentially lucrative game so enthralling because it's ever changing due to the diversity and ingenuity of individual play. Another note - If you watch Spraggys video closer you'll see it wasn't an UTG open, it was in fact an UTG+1 open. This changes everything. Ranges and all that (save the writing). If it was an UTG open, he'd probably muck. Also, due to the stack sizes (with the information provided) he likely covered the table so he can push off the initial raiser (who could have had a high VPIP or a fishy player or perhaps the complete opposite, a tight player, thus enforcing a fold) then be heads up against possible broadway combinations where your odds are essentially a coin flip. For example if the all in player had AA, the 7-4s has still around 20% probability of winning (pre flop). Not bad for 7 high (and that's without seeing any cards). Another example - If the UTG+1 had A10s and the small stack jammed AQo (which he had), believe it or not, the numbers state that whilst the AQo is still the favourite but the 7high has a higher percentage of winning the pot than the A10s! These are the exact numbers on a poker calculator specifically for these 3 hands (not including any other players folded hands (so 3 max playing with 48 cards). AQo Win - 38.72% A10h Win - 23.37% 74s Win 33.98% This is an example of equity and how playing in bounty tournaments changes decision making entirely. It's not "Oh this is only a 1k, I can afford to lose". It's calculated gambling strategy. In summary, Spraggy would have made these plays tones of times online in similar spots. It's a numbers game, he's playing math and riding that tidal wave of variance.
I really appreciate the time you’ve taken to give me your thoughts. I hear what you’re saying. Maybe I’m just not playing a high enough volume to be able to take the hits of the variance.
I think we’re going to have to agree to disagree. The original poster saying that “20% chance of winning with 7 high is pretty good” is just madness to me lol
I understand where your sleepless nights come from. I’ve been there, it might still happen once in a while. As a recreational (well, studied recreational) I have actually had your thoughts, however, with all that said, a saying from Lex comes to mind: If you see any of these top players do something, you should 100% do it as well in the same spot even if you don’t understand (yet) why they do it.
The math checks out in the Spraggy hand, the math checks out in your hand ( did you know you can shove that exact hand vs even a HJ open - it’s that strong ). When the math checks out, you do it, doesn’t matter what happens, this is the only way you actually play poker. It might look stupid at times you might make mistakes along the way, just focus on correcting the mistakes and move on.
As a side note, GTO tools do not account for bounties, if you factor in the bounty as a stack and add it to the pot as dead money, you might be surprised of the results (the math is: every bounty is worth a starting stack, and you add the number of stacks that represent the bounty as dead money in the pot - in your case, make the BTN RFI bigger (add the starting stack to it so it will be like 7BB), the run GTO again, 95s might be a call and you have way less fold equity then you think).
As a side side note, you mentioned that late reg is over, but the timer in the video is still ticking and you are in the level 6 of the tournament( talking about the exact spot in the video, not saying it didn’t happen in the spot you mentioned), this probably means that in the spot in the video, you have less than a starting stack and he has even bigger odds to call.
Good luck! I like your content
Spraggy is playing a hyper-turbo PKO and he 5x covers. His hand is suited & and should never be dominated other than pocket pairs. He has 37% equity pre-flop for a hit of 20% of his stack. He covers the UTG raiser so he isn’t incentivised to call him off unless he has an absolute monster which he won’t have a lot of the time, 99, TT, KQs, KQo, AJs etc. are all folding as Spraggy is showing strength 4betting all in against UTG raise. Idk if that’s what your guy was thinking but I a sure you Spraggy was thinking that
Unfortunately there are a lot of these types of players online. They are simply just rec players who are willing to gamble in these types of spots. It’s not right but they do it. Just remember these type of players will always lose in the long run and you can take advantage of that.
You forgot the TILT factor!
Do you run pre flop equity ranges? I think the 95s guy is just a donk play, but spraggy knew he was about 27% with a big stack, also it’s a hyper so shoving ranges wider for the shorties. Add the 500 euro bounty makes it tempting. The 95s is the absolute bottom of a 27% range and the showing range crushes it. I think spraggy folds there 😂
These low cards can perform well in all-ins as he doesn't re-shove A7, rarely A4s as a bluff. Considering the opponent has a very low stack for a bounty worth half the buy-in, he shouldn't be bluffing in this spot with anything other than A5s maybe, as he will induce much calling behind him. And you still get two live-cards with 74s in that case. Only thing that crushes you is overpairs, while you are somewhat connected and suited as well. There are dead chips from the initial raiser and he has fold-equity against him, which makes the heads-up (in case he folds) way more profitable. It is not the line you should always take with 74s but it can work out for you from time to time. The only thing that seems a bit strange to me is that he wanted a call from the initial raiser. It seems greedy to me as he would be putting a vast majority of his stack into the pot just for one more bounty. I would use this play only as an isolation to go heads-up and wouldn't be happy to see a call after two re-jams. Lastly, he probably had information on his opponents that we cannot know by just watching a highlight video. As for your hand, that's the shit you expect to see even in mid-stakes. People hunting min-bounties with junk. As you said, you played your hand 100% the correct way and I can understand that him hitting the 4-outer on the river can be tilting. In the long run you make so much money off of these calls.
He gets half his buyin back, if he knocks him out with the 74s, I don't think its as bad as ur making it out to be.
How often would a poker player expect to knock someone out with 74 though? Not often!
@@therealseagullpete You can run the equities in HRC. When half the buyin is the bounty, its probably not a bad gamble. I don't even know if its correct, I just don't think its terrible.
As a fellow clueless poker player I see it exactly the same as you do!! I feel in your online hand it is a case of “it’s only a small buy in and I could win a min bounty here” type scenario. I haven’t watched too much scraggy but what I have he defo knows what he is doing in the game!!
I think in this instance though it is mental play! There can be no way he thinks he is good there?!?
The only way I can possibly rationalise the situation is, I think, he is maybe thinking more about content, very different video if he loses that hand, maybe doesn’t even make the edit and just explains at a later hand he “lost a few hands” or something!!
Hope it helps you sleep knowing you are not going mad thinking you are the only one perplexed by this!!!
You could be on to something there. I hadn't considered the content aspect of it all. Seems like an expensive way to get a clip for social media though lol.
At least I'm not the only one that thinks its mad. That is good to know. What level of buy in do you think it would take before he didn't make that sort of play though?
All depends on bankroll or if he has people backing him, can’t see that type of play going down too well if someone has staked you!!
It might not be worth it but if he gets a few million views off it then he has earned more than the bounty!!
Spraggy doesn't share his actual thoughts. He shares what he wants to share. Maybe he put them on AK or AQ. When I'm playing live and I believe someone shoves AK pre I call with hands like 45 or 56 suited. Spraggy probably narrowed down their ranges with some tells and jammed thinking he was flipping.
I wish I could play in your games then ;)
@@therealseagullpete you would get destroyed because all the decisions are highly situational for each specific person that plays. 😂
I know you don't make money playing poker.
Any person who plays the game has degeneracy tendencies otherwise they wouldn't play the game. If there weren't bounty implications, the 74s would have been mucked without a single thought. If the hand wasn't suited, it would have been folded.
Spraggy knows the numbers, he wouldn't choose this spot every time. Poker can be a very instinctual game especially for thinking and intuitive players. The way you play hands can change radically depending on mood, feeling and many other fundamentals. This is what makes the potentially lucrative game so enthralling because it's ever changing due to the diversity and ingenuity of individual play.
Another note - If you watch Spraggys video closer you'll see it wasn't an UTG open, it was in fact an UTG+1 open. This changes everything. Ranges and all that (save the writing). If it was an UTG open, he'd probably muck. Also, due to the stack sizes (with the information provided) he likely covered the table so he can push off the initial raiser (who could have had a high VPIP or a fishy player or perhaps the complete opposite, a tight player, thus enforcing a fold) then be heads up against possible broadway combinations where your odds are essentially a coin flip.
For example if the all in player had AA, the 7-4s has still around 20% probability of winning (pre flop). Not bad for 7 high (and that's without seeing any cards).
Another example - If the UTG+1 had A10s and the small stack jammed AQo (which he had), believe it or not, the numbers state that whilst the AQo is still the favourite but the 7high has a higher percentage of winning the pot than the A10s!
These are the exact numbers on a poker calculator specifically for these 3 hands (not including any other players folded hands (so 3 max playing with 48 cards).
AQo Win - 38.72%
A10h Win - 23.37%
74s Win 33.98%
This is an example of equity and how playing in bounty tournaments changes decision making entirely. It's not "Oh this is only a 1k, I can afford to lose". It's calculated gambling strategy.
In summary, Spraggy would have made these plays tones of times online in similar spots. It's a numbers game, he's playing math and riding that tidal wave of variance.
I really appreciate the time you’ve taken to give me your thoughts. I hear what you’re saying. Maybe I’m just not playing a high enough volume to be able to take the hits of the variance.
What he said
Pretty much explains it. Add decent bankroll management to and play more volume
I think we’re going to have to agree to disagree. The original poster saying that “20% chance of winning with 7 high is pretty good” is just madness to me lol
@@therealseagullpete Again, you're inaccurate. I in fact said "not bad for 7 high". 20% is 20% whatever way you look at it.
Yeah yeah u had kq he has 95 so what?
Its a bad play by him thats what lol