This is the first Australian content creator digging into global monetary policy, local government policy and possible impacts. I really appreciate your effort as we are so blind in Australia to foreign owned property data agencies who I feel certain are manipulating listings and MSM narratives to keep the ponzi going. It’s not just government and immigration stats; and we are really going to be blindsided as we’re all frogs boiling slowly in this complex pot of corrupt monetary systems!
One comment in this video stands out. “ wages are rising faster than inflation”. On what planet??? I have been going backwards for 20 years. Maybe politicians are beating inflation but normal everyday Aussies definitely are not.
if the data is right then inflation should be headed back up. my best guess is that if the it's right it's from the public spending. I have one client who is a driver for NDIS clients who is earning $250k. i am not joking.
And these fucking politicians are on a base wage of 200 k so they don’t give a flying fuck about the Aussie these arsehole are career politicians,not to help us no way,they leave politicians when they now can go work for a multi billionaire who at some point they helped them while they were a politician
Gov policy is to keep the housing market booming up and up, so no matter what the speculation, Gov will find a way to increase the house price, so dear investors, do not worry to buy another one!
A factor in the domestic housing market inflation is the unrestricted overseas investor over the last 30 years which included money laundering. Governments welcomed the inflow of capitol without any thought on the domestic market. Real Estate agents would boast how their overseas buyer paid way above the reserve, this filtered down to the house next door, next street and next suburb.
Good video, I like your delivery style. Couple of notes, data can only tell you what has happened, not what will happen. Removal of negative gearing led to rent rises only in Sydney. I think they fell or were flat everywhere else.
RE rates: You are bang on. People are complaining about how rates are high but we are still lower than the historical average. People need to stop relying on rate drops given we are in the sweet spot according to the RBA. Our economy needs to continue on the basis that rates won't drop, or by much if they do, and push forward from there. If that means we see people having to sell up as a result, so be it.
@@markovasil1608 Not quite right. The RBA cash rate is still below the historical average since 1992. While variable rates are higher now, that's due to banks' costs and margins, not just the RBA. You can see this because banks are dropping their rates despite the cash rate holding firm. You're right though in saying that house prices have doubled while wages haven't kept up, but that's a separate issue from how interest rates are set.
Whatabout gst if you buy a coffee for instance there is 10% on the milk the coffee the sugar every component has gst we are rorted by our govt they sell our gas for peanuts and we pay through the nose we are being taxed out of existance and rorted by our governments while their lurks and perks just go up this is just one example
The reserve bank is on track to give us stagflation by not putting rates up high enough quick enough, this trundling along feels very much like stagflation
What about Rural Residential!! I'm no realestate guy but with future lock downs just round the corner I reckon Rural Residential will be a preferred option!?
Australia is one of the worlds biggest money laundering machines. ie via real estate. There are no checks and balances on any money being fed into Australian residential property unlike in most other western countries. The government agreed to abide by international standards 20+ years ago but since then has done nothing, neither Labor nor LNP. They are all scumbags up to their necks in the scam that Aus real estate.
may not if gov keep printing money to keep the price up, rich people will collect all the homes and gets richer, and poorer gets poorer , never own home before death, so economy will still go strong with rich people spending, circulating the money, it's just that the poor people will remain poor, poor as in never be able to own a home!
You were going fine until you said that a discount on capital gains was introduced in 1999. Just plain wrong. Yes lots of commentators make this ridiculous statement. The 50% discount REPLACED a far better (imho) capital gains tax system. In short the index cost base of the asset was adjusted up by the quarterly CPI . The RATE of tax was assessed by adding 20% of the Capital Gain to the other income for that year of asset disposal, then that marginal rate of tax was applied to the total of the capital gain after the CPI is added to the cost index base. In fact the Howard changes introducing a 50% "discount" in time is actually a large INCREASE in the tax payable. It locks in an increase in tax revenue to any government that generates inflation, (they both do, just the ALP does it a bit more - run deficit budgets.) House prices are not just a factor of inflation. Increasing scarcity of land (the edge of cities keeps moving out) and the cost of building replacement goes up with materials and tradies wages. In fact materials are largely an expression of the labour added to produce that product. for example, ready mixed concrete, a vital component in construction consists of gravel, sand and cement. But the raw sand needs to be washed (energy ) and transported to batching plant (energy), the granite needs to be quarried (energy) crushed to size (energy) and transported to batching plant in the city (energy), cement same story. Limestone needs to be mined and crushed (energy) then heated the hell out of (energy) to make portland cement, then transported in those droopy looking tankers (more energy to the batching plant. Then the ingredients are mixed together (more energy) and the resulting product is poured into an agiater (concrete truck) where water is added. Just the drum and agitator alone id heavy enough, but now we add water, more weight. Now this heavily loaded bogie truck drives to site (yeap more energy) , and of course the product is now very perishable. But the client is really paying mostly for the energy inputs a lot of which is diesel. So that price is controlled to a large extent by international factors. The one downward pressure on the price of a house is the fact the building itself is depreciating as it gets older. this is generally more than offset by the increase in replacement costs. So any crash or drop in house prices is traditionally just a correction and the long term trend is still about 10% per year, BUT NOT A CONSTANT increase. Government polices play a huge influence on all investment decisions. The obscene costs councils charge for approvals (up to $35,000 just for a granny flat approval - a contribution but zero direct benefit to the granny flat) and the costs of developing a green field site, plus increasingly high rates of land tax (not charged on other investments but media still claim landlords get an easy ride) results in the housing crisis we now have. IF build to rent was such a favorable investment then we would see large corporations such as Westfields and Stocklands investing in build to rent schemes. But we only see them investing in retirement village investment, because it is way more profitable. The banks and Insurance companies would also be jumping into build for rent projects if it was so good. Or are they lacking good expert advice?? Nett result for me is to invest overseas where the tax regimes are more reasonable.
Great summary Will. Most commentators have fixed opinions but this was an excellent summary of need to know history. My view is we’re in for a very painful time and the sooner we rip off the Band-Aid the better!! Still hurts
Negative gearing should only be for new builds. That would help increase the housing stock. To me a huge part of the problem with price to income ratio going insane is also from the CGT discount. That needs to go... I think your summary is excellent although I feel attention could be added to the CGT discount although I get you can always add something in a summary.
The supply numbers are okay. It's demand supported by immigration. Our birth rate is below replacement and yet our population is exploding. My personal belief is it is to keep the Ponzi going.
The Victorian economy went from "Marvelous Rich Melbourne" in the late 1880's to a real estate crash and real estate being almost worthless. 80% of banks closed their doors, unemployment 60 to 80%. Triggered by loans issued by English banks having Argentina defaulting on loans. You also didn't stress the possibility of a steep fall in the dollar.
They are always for sale and I noticed the same 15 years ago, however not genuinely for sale on account that the potential sellers never drop the prices to meet the apparent lack of demand. Not only that, they keep putting up their 'for sale' prices in line with Melbourne house prices. 99% of those sellers are just waiting for the greater fool to come along and gift them some cap gains but are in no hurry to actually sell.
Few recognise that property prices in Australia are the result of dual income and not tax policy. As a tax professional changes to tax policy will only tweak the margins unless so significant to make property investment untenable, and even then owner occupied property will be unaffected. I suspect there will be an effective bifurcation of the property market in coming years with the cookie cutter new builds of recent years being market dogs and those without bank of mum and dad priced out.
@@mareecrick2379 this scam is mainly driven by illicit money from south east Asia, artificial demand-supply imbalance, unlimited interest only mortgage scam by banks etc.. apart from govt sponsored tax breaks especially 50% CGT discount... Shame on the perpetrators of this... Many people migrated recently have started realising the ground realities and started packing up for return. The system should now start targetting the next set of uninformed people...
Duel income was normal in the 70s 80s and 90s. Today duel income is 100% necessary and even then a struggle for most people. Every aspect of Aus property is gamed by people who have no genuine interest in housing other than gaming it for speculative gains or income, ie parasites. The government has encouraged this for the last 30 years. Lets hope this is the start of the end. No market on earth deserves a total collapse like Aus housing does.
Thanks Will. The social cost too great. The next 20 years I estimate to be a 'wild ride' Baby boomers hold 50% of the wealth. and the rich want more! Expecting the Middle and poor working class to pay Tax for the Corporate/Rich. The 80's tax system changed where the top earners were appropriately taxed, turned on its head, with the mothers who maintained the emotional buffer in the household, now go to work to feed the children because their money doesn't go as far. Families where the mother works full time, maintains a house They are divorcing!, The struggle too great. On the flip side, Housing investors with their huge tax breaks are cashing in with large profits and not a house affordable to rent. I have seen multiple families living in cars! Australians are second on the world list as the highest consumers of anti-depressants. The next generation will have Ai to do their work! Its going to be interesting. It means Australians in cities will be living in a Unit with no backyard, both parents working 2 jobs to barely pay for a shoe box that was poorly built. I feel for the next generation. We need a political party willing to to make " An Australia first" policy.
Based on most analysts in Canada, Australia and the UK there should have been a bust a few years ago. But it did not happen. Something peculiar happened These nations flooded the country with millions of migrants. This created a massive demand for accommodation which in turn inflated rents. Which in turn inflated house prices. This prevented the bubble. It appears like house prices have rached a tipping point. If you check the original prices of homes like apartments in CBDs, units and townhouses you will find most are selling below the original price, much below and with few buyers. The homes that are selling at a good margin are multimilliond dollar homes in the affluent suburbs. But these buyers a few, and are the super rich who have $10M and above in spare money and are paying wat above the market price. The average home prices include these homes so you get inflated figures.
Why so different than the New Zealand housing market which has a a substantial drop since 2021 and still coming down . Why so different than Australia yet so close in proximity? Would you invest today in NZ or AU?
@@lindam.1502 Many people i knew used NZ as the stepping stone to migrating to Australia, most of them were from Asian countries but then realized that life back home was better than in Australia then left back to their countries. And NZ is now a mess.
😮 Beyond holes in the ground and land producing industries, we produce very little. Migration is/has always been #1 grow sector because it's controllable and takes no imagination or effort!. Instead of voting in the same idiots each election and expecting change? We could vote differently and support creative common sense people who are batting for the people and not Self admiration!!
How do you fix it fix it Maybe we need to have smaller houses like they were in the 60s The fact that land is the biggest expense, and no one can never own it, only own a title All land should be leased and cost of lease affordable
The problem is between wage growth and housing prices. Current rates are bot statistically high but if you factor in housing price to wages you are left with morgage stress at 4% and oblivion if the cash rate hits 5%. The failure is viewing residential property as an investment tool as opposed to a family investment.
The problem is government spending, policies, corporate greed and mass immigration. Employers should not have to fund corporate/government greed with wage increases.
The cash cow flow which keeps on giving to all tiers of government is the housing building industry. Increased migration leads to increased supply and demand at the expense of local Australians! The only industry truly booming in Australia and keeping the economy growing... Easy non innovative politics from politicians!
I was a Zero pound POM my parents paid 10 Pound each in 1972 5 kids paid nothing! Family moved back to UK in 1975, I came back to Australia in 1980 as one of the last 10 Pound POMs so I emigrated twice to Australia for a total of 10 Pound lol
We want 95% home ownership. Just ban investing in homes. Either live in it, rent it out or pay a 10% vacancy tax each year. This would put more homes in the hands of current renters. Government must make sure there are a surplus of homes available which would keep prices low. If government does not provide enough homes then they must be stripped of all personal assets. There have to be repercussions for the crime of breaking the social contract. No foreigners allowed to buy Homes or Land in Australia. No mortgage or rent repayments should be more than 25% of ones take home income. 1% fixed term mortgages. Doesn't matter if people only pay off 10% of their loan, its still their home and their capital in the home. We need laws that FORCE politicians to make decisions that solve the problem. If they keep doing things that do not get 95% or even 100% of people housed in their own home, they have to be punished. Currently the political class are stupid and selfish and corrupt. Its a bad combination. But punishments there must be or Australia will have a communist style revolution where all the wealthy land owners are murdered as has happened around the world so many times in the past and we don't want to get to that point. Why not build several amazing new cities like Sydney, there is no shortage of land on the coast to do it. Other countries are doing it. The reason is its not happening in Australia is because the political class is corrupt and they do not give a shit about the public. When they get into office they should have done all the work on what to build where and have all the designs drawn up and ready to go.
Thanks. I'm fine with that. I think it's ok for real estate so long as the money is going to work in reaching the country's goals. For example -increasing housing supply.
That's great of you to get rid of the mom n pop investors for the corporations. They have zero problem claiming all losses, they even get tax dollars to help their monopoly.
@@nicolle_2944 yeah corporates don't get CGT discount. And "mom and pop" investors is a trope. 25% of all investment properties are owned by 1% of people.
I’m an Australian citizen working in medical income that I earn barely covers rent I’m not able to save unfortunately I will have to move to Asia even probably change my profession to survive I have been forced to,leave the country I love
They would have to time their currency conversion pretty tightly for that to be the case, there is a good chance the dollar will recover and the RBA will increase rates instead of cut them to curb the inflation. Good chance the property market is going to take a hit with the influx of government spending to expedite building of new houses, less immigration due to the cost of living here to the point where even hotels are expensive etc. Aussies fleeing the country because they can't afford to live here, wages not increasing at the same rate as inflation and the cost of housing etc. I think a lot of aussies are under the delusion that property can inflate forever. People are ignoring the fact that the AUD fell to the lowest price it has in yeras, that is one of the reasons the RBA stated that might cause them to increase rates and everything else that is about to happen this year.
@greggoldberg1518 I think you're correct on that, I've got family that has been adamant that interest rates are coming down for the last 18 months, and I've disagreed. Unemployment is still too low to lower rates
@@scottthorp22 if the AUD didn't take a hit recently and nosedive into oblivion they might have been right, unemployment is meant to rise this year apparently (which means people will default on mortgages more and hit the property market). A month ago they were predicting 70 US cents for an AUD when they said they were going to cut rates in February or May, now they are predicting 50 cents. I think we might be at the start of a crash but properties will still be more expensive than they were a few years ago and after a while (when wages catch up) they will be just as expensive.
No thanks. Dog kennels for slaves. We end up with high rise density 'projects' like China. Australia does not need this lazy, greed driven poorly constructed developments.
Our rent are going feom 2100 to 2500/ month thats almost 20 % up on rent and not including all groceries ect So overall its more likely 25-35% inflation on average for most people
Housing market is only good for dual incomes and families combining incomes on property. Any single incomes whereby you can live in a area that offers you and children higher education and numbers of students to support certain courses are becoming unattainable. To have basic liveability is becoming harder and harder to find making thinking outside the box to get within grasp of having a bright future possible. .....🤔...i wish i could sing 😛
@@FranksHairSalon Once the credit is removed the real money will come in and the house of cards will fall... the domino effect all over western countries!
I sold up in 2019 to move to the UK. Biggest mistake. I am now trying to get back in at 60yrs with two dependents and it is frightening. Many expats are moving back and it is horrific to see what is going on in the property market and it really is not sustainable for the new generations. Why can’t the government really develop regional cities, incentivise blue chips and put in fast trains. Very successful in the UK and Europe. Australia is in its own bubble.
Based on observation by all family and relatives living in other developed countries, Australia is at least 20 -25 years behind in development planning and housing plans and land use. The state govts just don't get it, and the federal govt is too busy fighting in parliament and accusing each other about historical and existing problems impacting on non wealthy citizens, including childhood poverty which should not exist in the land of Gina Rhinehart and her cronies.
@@zarinepeter5716 Plus Australia is one of the worlds biggest money laundering machines. ie via real estate. There are no checks and balances on any money being fed into Australian residential property unlike in most other western countries. The government agreed to abide by international standards 20+ years ago but since then has done nothing, neither Labor nor LNP. They are all scumbags up to their necks in the scam that Aus real estate is.
Just stop the foreign demand and we'll be fine without the fast trains and further development. Most of us don't want massive population and more cities. We want to keep our Australian lifestyle
@@Christina-f4f However, as and Australian , I do live in the UK and on the whole is nowhere near as bad as it can be made out to be and Australia has nothing like the amazing lifestyle it is presumed to be this side of $1.5 million house + $$$$$ wage to go with it. As it stands the cost of living in the UK for us is less than Australia, something I notice on my trips back to Oz. We would like to move back but the obscene house prices say NO. The biggest drawback for us in the UK is the long winter.
Really hope the government is buying bitcoin because USD reserves will be worthless eventually and as most Australians are completely ignorant about the coming transformation we’ll all be stuffed! Please educate yourself fast with Ray Dalio, Jeff Booth and Michael Saylor videos (in that order). Even if you don’t form a conviction, at least you’ll be educated and better prepared for the coming. Stagflation.
Me thinketh beautiful and amazing Greater West, close to stations, stopping centres with doer uppers on large blocks of land around $700,000. Sorry girls, no ensuites or Island benchtops!@!?😉😁
Shacks surrounded by drug addicts and other assorted criminals. These houses have a real economic value of about $25K but in Australia's totally dystopian realestate wonderland, as you say $700K
Oh an addition. Negative gearing used to be for new builds, which would encourage development, now some clever anti-social personality in government threw in a few clauses!! Probably about the same time a certain prime minister sold off the Electricity/Assets in NSW, and stated 'its not a problem if house prices increase'. I'm not a mathematician, but I am not stupid either. As for the gas sell out, We are equivalent to the Saudis in gas supplies, yet Australians pay the highest gas prices/Electricity. Twiggy Forest is building Gas Tanks in Sydney/Kanibla, and Melbourne so we can buy IMPORTED gas. WTF Its like telling the Saudis to import Petrol, its a Joke. Meanwhile, the cheap gas that China and Japan are sourcing from Australia, is oversupplied so they sell it on for a profit. WTF Gross exploitation of Australian who are hard working, well the majority😀
Negative gearing is a shame n prevented so many many new home buyers buying their first home, ihave a daughter and two sons unable to into property, my children keeps on telling me , dad we can never set a foot in our first home, instead of investing in property invest in jobs.the nation is not facing housing shortages but its facing greed were one person has 10 houses and one person don't have a caravan, wat a sham, it sikens me to death.
Sorry,Negative gearing didn't start in 2022,2008 or 2000,but mass immigration did.Its simple maths,extra 600,000 people every year means an extra 200,000 plus houses just to have a hope of keeping up.We don't build that many houses in favourable economic conditions
Hopefully, its a total crash. Housing is so overpriced, it needs to FALL, crash. Its killing the country. Further, its not just the price of buying, rents are also ridiculous..
One thing is sure corruption, corrupt and more corruption will keep the bubble inflated, this will require more and more immigration, so called skilled but as everyone expects those statistics are wrong yesterday and tomorrow, looking forward to the 5 hours in my highly taxed car on the way to financial brick wall
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This is the first Australian content creator digging into global monetary policy, local government policy and possible impacts. I really appreciate your effort as we are so blind in Australia to foreign owned property data agencies who I feel certain are manipulating listings and MSM narratives to keep the ponzi going. It’s not just government and immigration stats; and we are really going to be blindsided as we’re all frogs boiling slowly in this complex pot of corrupt monetary systems!
Thanks!
One comment in this video stands out. “ wages are rising faster than inflation”. On what planet??? I have been going backwards for 20 years. Maybe politicians are beating inflation but normal everyday Aussies definitely are not.
if the data is right then inflation should be headed back up. my best guess is that if the it's right it's from the public spending. I have one client who is a driver for NDIS clients who is earning $250k. i am not joking.
Wages HAVE outpaced the CPI. But here’s the kicker - they don’t count house prices in CPI.
@@jasontohealMy wage hasn’t increased in 10 years. My employer is breaking even. Construction industry.
@@jasontoheal Correct. The CPI are fudged numbers to hide the truth about fiat currencies.
And these fucking politicians are on a base wage of 200 k so they don’t give a flying fuck about the Aussie these arsehole are career politicians,not to help us no way,they leave politicians when they now can go work for a multi billionaire who at some point they helped them while they were a politician
Gov policy is to keep the housing market booming up and up, so no matter what the speculation, Gov will find a way to increase the house price, so dear investors, do not worry to buy another one!
A factor in the domestic housing market inflation is the unrestricted overseas investor over the last 30 years which included money laundering. Governments welcomed the inflow of capitol without any thought on the domestic market. Real Estate agents would boast how their overseas buyer paid way above the reserve, this filtered down to the house next door, next street and next suburb.
Good video, I like your delivery style. Couple of notes, data can only tell you what has happened, not what will happen. Removal of negative gearing led to rent rises only in Sydney. I think they fell or were flat everywhere else.
RE rates: You are bang on. People are complaining about how rates are high but we are still lower than the historical average. People need to stop relying on rate drops given we are in the sweet spot according to the RBA. Our economy needs to continue on the basis that rates won't drop, or by much if they do, and push forward from there. If that means we see people having to sell up as a result, so be it.
Your wrong, interest rates haven’t been this high since 2005 when houses were 1/2 the price. But wages aren’t double. Therein lies the problem
@@markovasil1608 Not quite right. The RBA cash rate is still below the historical average since 1992. While variable rates are higher now, that's due to banks' costs and margins, not just the RBA. You can see this because banks are dropping their rates despite the cash rate holding firm. You're right though in saying that house prices have doubled while wages haven't kept up, but that's a separate issue from how interest rates are set.
If rates were to drop so would the Australian dollar meaning imports would inflate and everuthong we have would be exported
Whatabout gst if you buy a coffee for instance there is 10% on the milk the coffee the sugar every component has gst we are rorted by our govt they sell our gas for peanuts and we pay through the nose we are being taxed out of existance and rorted by our governments while their lurks and perks just go up this is just one example
Ow fuck of you idiot where the fuck do you work out your bullshit,look at immigration you complete fucking flog
Currency devaluation. Aud is the new peso.
@Garden-offgrid that's why I think the currency will devalue. My home has gone up a lot in value but it's not something to celebrate imo.
The new peso! Lol😂
The thing is it seems like it's true.
The Aus $ is still far too high vs the value of the country.
Compare it to the price of gold and this will confirm this is happening in full blown mode.
Fantastic breakdown of the Australian property market thanks Will
Thanks mate!
This is a lot of words to say “Howard ramped up immigration and house prices went nuts”
And howard halved cap gains reductions and started the ramp up in immigration. ie he turned Aus housing into a casino.
Great video, honest and less opinion more just facts. Great job 👍
Thanks mate. I've probaby had too much opinion in previous vids so that's great to hear!
The reserve bank is on track to give us stagflation by not putting rates up high enough quick enough, this trundling along feels very much like stagflation
Stagflation is best case in 2025/26. I suspect incoming recession. Buckle up 😂
@@marcusbolleurs9105 The recession currently happening with our biggest trading partner (hina) will be the catalyst.
@@marcusbolleurs9105private sector has been in a recession for quite some time now. It is the government that is spending like a drunken sailor.
What about Rural Residential!! I'm no realestate guy but with future lock downs just round the corner I reckon Rural Residential will be a preferred option!?
If housing unaffordability continues like this we're going to have to implement a 'purge' type situation
Money washing through our property market from overseas investors and negative gearing are the two factors that influence our property values today.
Australia is one of the worlds biggest money laundering machines. ie via real estate. There are no checks and balances on any money being fed into Australian residential property unlike in most other western countries. The government agreed to abide by international standards 20+ years ago but since then has done nothing, neither Labor nor LNP. They are all scumbags up to their necks in the scam that Aus real estate.
Once the Govt manages their spending RBA will achieve what needs to happen..
Very good logical piece of work, keep up the good work.
It's finish we had 2000 to 2024 what goes up must come down ❤
may not if gov keep printing money to keep the price up, rich people will collect all the homes and gets richer, and poorer gets poorer , never own home before death, so economy will still go strong with rich people spending, circulating the money, it's just that the poor people will remain poor, poor as in never be able to own a home!
We keep hoping.
@@chorcor888the fourth Industrial Revolution... aka The Great Reset.
The government should get completely out of the housing market, and every other domestic market.
Very good idea and poorest, disabled and sick end up in your house?😂😂😂😂
You were going fine until you said that a discount on capital gains was introduced in 1999. Just plain wrong. Yes lots of commentators make this ridiculous statement. The 50% discount REPLACED a far better (imho) capital gains tax system. In short the index cost base of the asset was adjusted up by the quarterly CPI . The RATE of tax was assessed by adding 20% of the Capital Gain to the other income for that year of asset disposal, then that marginal rate of tax was applied to the total of the capital gain after the CPI is added to the cost index base.
In fact the Howard changes introducing a 50% "discount" in time is actually a large INCREASE in the tax payable. It locks in an increase in tax revenue to any government that generates inflation, (they both do, just the ALP does it a bit more - run deficit budgets.) House prices are not just a factor of inflation. Increasing scarcity of land (the edge of cities keeps moving out) and the cost of building replacement goes up with materials and tradies wages. In fact materials are largely an expression of the labour added to produce that product. for example, ready mixed concrete, a vital component in construction consists of gravel, sand and cement. But the raw sand needs to be washed (energy ) and transported to batching plant (energy), the granite needs to be quarried (energy) crushed to size (energy) and transported to batching plant in the city (energy), cement same story. Limestone needs to be mined and crushed (energy) then heated the hell out of (energy) to make portland cement, then transported in those droopy looking tankers (more energy to the batching plant. Then the ingredients are mixed together (more energy) and the resulting product is poured into an agiater (concrete truck) where water is added. Just the drum and agitator alone id heavy enough, but now we add water, more weight. Now this heavily loaded bogie truck drives to site (yeap more energy) , and of course the product is now very perishable. But the client is really paying mostly for the energy inputs a lot of which is diesel. So that price is controlled to a large extent by international factors. The one downward pressure on the price of a house is the fact the building itself is depreciating as it gets older. this is generally more than offset by the increase in replacement costs. So any crash or drop in house prices is traditionally just a correction and the long term trend is still about 10% per year, BUT NOT A CONSTANT increase. Government polices play a huge influence on all investment decisions. The obscene costs councils charge for approvals (up to $35,000 just for a granny flat approval - a contribution but zero direct benefit to the granny flat) and the costs of developing a green field site, plus increasingly high rates of land tax (not charged on other investments but media still claim landlords get an easy ride) results in the housing crisis we now have.
IF build to rent was such a favorable investment then we would see large corporations such as Westfields and Stocklands investing in build to rent schemes. But we only see them investing in retirement village investment, because it is way more profitable. The banks and Insurance companies would also be jumping into build for rent projects if it was so good. Or are they lacking good expert advice?? Nett result for me is to invest overseas where the tax regimes are more reasonable.
Just came across your video, congratulations on a balanced analysis,
Great summary Will. Most commentators have fixed opinions but this was an excellent summary of need to know history. My view is we’re in for a very painful time and the sooner we rip off the Band-Aid the better!! Still hurts
Thanks Geoff. I agree. Whatever move we make there will be more pain.
We own our own house since 1982. We were given $5,000 from our
mother in law and is a province to own it plus her unit as. well.
Negative gearing should only be for new builds. That would help increase the housing stock. To me a huge part of the problem with price to income ratio going insane is also from the CGT discount. That needs to go...
I think your summary is excellent although I feel attention could be added to the CGT discount although I get you can always add something in a summary.
Exactly... Also RBA cannot close their eyes to the scam by banks giving interest only loans for property investment. This scam has to stop...
The supply numbers are okay. It's demand supported by immigration. Our birth rate is below replacement and yet our population is exploding. My personal belief is it is to keep the Ponzi going.
So just ignoring record immigration I guess huh 🤦🏻♂️
@@mr_jdes supply numbers will never keep up with the population boom. Our leaders know it but don't want to talk about it.
We need tax cuts not tax hikes. F@ck that
The Victorian economy went from "Marvelous Rich Melbourne" in the late 1880's to a real estate crash and real estate being almost worthless. 80% of banks closed their doors, unemployment 60 to 80%. Triggered by loans issued by English banks having Argentina defaulting on loans. You also didn't stress the possibility of a steep fall in the dollar.
The government, the housing minister see the property market like the stock exchange not as a needs of food and shelter
700 houses for sale in Torquay..
Yes people are bailing the failed Socialist State! A minister for men’s behaviour!!! It’s booming in QLD. We need a wall to stop the Victorians!
Land tax in Vic is crazy
They are always for sale and I noticed the same 15 years ago, however not genuinely for sale on account that the potential sellers never drop the prices to meet the apparent lack of demand. Not only that, they keep putting up their 'for sale' prices in line with Melbourne house prices. 99% of those sellers are just waiting for the greater fool to come along and gift them some cap gains but are in no hurry to actually sell.
@@stephanguitar9778isn't that how a bust starts?
Thank you for your videos. You are spot on.
Few recognise that property prices in Australia are the result of dual income and not tax policy. As a tax professional changes to tax policy will only tweak the margins unless so significant to make property investment untenable, and even then owner occupied property will be unaffected. I suspect there will be an effective bifurcation of the property market in coming years with the cookie cutter new builds of recent years being market dogs and those without bank of mum and dad priced out.
@@mareecrick2379 yes. We are doing twice as much work for half as much. Should be twice as rich but alas.
@@mareecrick2379 this scam is mainly driven by illicit money from south east Asia, artificial demand-supply imbalance, unlimited interest only mortgage scam by banks etc.. apart from govt sponsored tax breaks especially 50% CGT discount...
Shame on the perpetrators of this...
Many people migrated recently have started realising the ground realities and started packing up for return. The system should now start targetting the next set of uninformed people...
Duel income was normal in the 70s 80s and 90s. Today duel income is 100% necessary and even then a struggle for most people. Every aspect of Aus property is gamed by people who have no genuine interest in housing other than gaming it for speculative gains or income, ie parasites. The government has encouraged this for the last 30 years. Lets hope this is the start of the end. No market on earth deserves a total collapse like Aus housing does.
That was set up before 2000. Since then it's the mass immigration and foreign ownership that has overinflated prices.
Thanks Will. The social cost too great. The next 20 years I estimate to be a 'wild ride' Baby boomers hold 50% of the wealth. and the rich want more! Expecting the Middle and poor working class to pay Tax for the Corporate/Rich. The 80's tax system changed where the top earners were appropriately taxed, turned on its head, with the mothers who maintained the emotional buffer in the household, now go to work to feed the children because their money doesn't go as far. Families where the mother works full time, maintains a house They are divorcing!, The struggle too great. On the flip side, Housing investors with their huge tax breaks are cashing in with large profits and not a house affordable to rent. I have seen multiple families living in cars! Australians are second on the world list as the highest consumers of anti-depressants. The next generation will have Ai to do their work! Its going to be interesting. It means Australians in cities will be living in a Unit with no backyard, both parents working 2 jobs to barely pay for a shoe box that was poorly built. I feel for the next generation. We need a political party willing to to make " An Australia first" policy.
Based on most analysts in Canada, Australia and the UK there should have been a bust a few years ago. But it did not happen.
Something peculiar happened
These nations flooded the country with millions of migrants. This created a massive demand for accommodation which in turn inflated rents. Which in turn inflated house prices. This prevented the bubble. It appears like house prices have rached a tipping point. If you check the original prices of homes like apartments in CBDs, units and townhouses you will find most are selling below the original price, much below and with few buyers.
The homes that are selling at a good margin are multimilliond dollar homes in the affluent suburbs. But these buyers a few, and are the super rich who have $10M and above in spare money and are paying wat above the market price. The average home prices include these homes so you get inflated figures.
Why so different than the New Zealand housing market which has a a substantial drop since 2021 and still coming down .
Why so different than Australia yet so close in proximity?
Would you invest today in NZ or AU?
Immigration?
@@lindam.1502 Many people i knew used NZ as the stepping stone to migrating to Australia, most of them were from Asian countries but then realized that life back home was better than in Australia then left back to their countries. And NZ is now a mess.
😮 Beyond holes in the ground and land producing industries, we produce very little. Migration is/has always been #1 grow sector because it's controllable and takes no imagination or effort!.
Instead of voting in the same idiots each election and expecting change? We could vote differently and support creative common sense people who are batting for the people and not Self admiration!!
How do you fix it fix it
Maybe we need to have smaller houses like they were in the 60s
The fact that land is the biggest expense, and no one can never own it, only own a title
All land should be leased and cost of lease affordable
The problem is between wage growth and housing prices. Current rates are bot statistically high but if you factor in housing price to wages you are left with morgage stress at 4% and oblivion if the cash rate hits 5%. The failure is viewing residential property as an investment tool as opposed to a family investment.
The problem is government spending, policies, corporate greed and mass immigration. Employers should not have to fund corporate/government greed with wage increases.
The cash cow flow which keeps on giving to all tiers of government is the housing building industry. Increased migration leads to increased supply and demand at the expense of local Australians! The only industry truly booming in Australia and keeping the economy growing... Easy non innovative politics from politicians!
I was a Zero pound POM my parents paid 10 Pound each in 1972 5 kids paid nothing! Family moved back to UK in 1975, I came back to Australia in 1980 as one of the last 10 Pound POMs so I emigrated twice to Australia for a total of 10 Pound lol
I'm attending an interview as an underwriter please help me for more information
NINJA = (no income, no job, and no asset), BUT probably no job applications, too.
We want 95% home ownership. Just ban investing in homes. Either live in it, rent it out or pay a 10% vacancy tax each year. This would put more homes in the hands of current renters. Government must make sure there are a surplus of homes available which would keep prices low. If government does not provide enough homes then they must be stripped of all personal assets. There have to be repercussions for the crime of breaking the social contract. No foreigners allowed to buy Homes or Land in Australia.
No mortgage or rent repayments should be more than 25% of ones take home income. 1% fixed term mortgages. Doesn't matter if people only pay off 10% of their loan, its still their home and their capital in the home.
We need laws that FORCE politicians to make decisions that solve the problem. If they keep doing things that do not get 95% or even 100% of people housed in their own home, they have to be punished. Currently the political class are stupid and selfish and corrupt. Its a bad combination. But punishments there must be or Australia will have a communist style revolution where all the wealthy land owners are murdered as has happened around the world so many times in the past and we don't want to get to that point.
Why not build several amazing new cities like Sydney, there is no shortage of land on the coast to do it. Other countries are doing it. The reason is its not happening in Australia is because the political class is corrupt and they do not give a shit about the public. When they get into office they should have done all the work on what to build where and have all the designs drawn up and ready to go.
Boom or bust 🤔 crash n burn management not only investment strategies
Clare needs to go. She screwed up immigration. How did she get this job????
Sucked off a few
To cover up what she did with mass immigration 😂
REMOVE negative gearing investment
What is employment in 2025?
Great video!
Glad you enjoyed it
The property is bust its Doom Doom ❤
Australia pm is like joe Biden.
Negative gear 2 investments and thereafter remove it
IMO negative gearing is fine as long as it's quarantined to income from real estate and not other sources of income.
Thanks. I'm fine with that. I think it's ok for real estate so long as the money is going to work in reaching the country's goals. For example -increasing housing supply.
That's great of you to get rid of the mom n pop investors for the corporations. They have zero problem claiming all losses, they even get tax dollars to help their monopoly.
@@nicolle_2944 yeah corporates don't get CGT discount. And "mom and pop" investors is a trope. 25% of all investment properties are owned by 1% of people.
I’m an Australian citizen working in medical income that I earn barely covers rent I’m not able to save unfortunately I will have to move to Asia even probably change my profession to survive I have been forced to,leave the country I love
Bust ! The biggest bubble ever
The value of the Australian dollar is falling. This is making property cheaper to foreign buyers
They would have to time their currency conversion pretty tightly for that to be the case, there is a good chance the dollar will recover and the RBA will increase rates instead of cut them to curb the inflation. Good chance the property market is going to take a hit with the influx of government spending to expedite building of new houses, less immigration due to the cost of living here to the point where even hotels are expensive etc. Aussies fleeing the country because they can't afford to live here, wages not increasing at the same rate as inflation and the cost of housing etc. I think a lot of aussies are under the delusion that property can inflate forever.
People are ignoring the fact that the AUD fell to the lowest price it has in yeras, that is one of the reasons the RBA stated that might cause them to increase rates and everything else that is about to happen this year.
@greggoldberg1518 I think you're correct on that, I've got family that has been adamant that interest rates are coming down for the last 18 months, and I've disagreed. Unemployment is still too low to lower rates
@@scottthorp22 if the AUD didn't take a hit recently and nosedive into oblivion they might have been right, unemployment is meant to rise this year apparently (which means people will default on mortgages more and hit the property market). A month ago they were predicting 70 US cents for an AUD when they said they were going to cut rates in February or May, now they are predicting 50 cents. I think we might be at the start of a crash but properties will still be more expensive than they were a few years ago and after a while (when wages catch up) they will be just as expensive.
I would like to see a tax scheme that would encourage Investors towards Apartment buildings and Units.
Get them out of Family Units.
All tax systems need restructure but its wouldn't be done because it's better for government.
I would like to see no units or apartments. It's an unAustralian way of living, and why should that be the only option for renters?
No thanks. Dog kennels for slaves. We end up with high rise density 'projects' like China. Australia does not need this lazy, greed driven poorly constructed developments.
U have no clue bradda!😮
Our rent are going feom 2100 to 2500/ month thats almost 20 % up on rent and not including all groceries ect
So overall its more likely 25-35% inflation on average for most people
Why do you think they don't count mortgages and rent in the inflation figures? 😂
Housing market is only good for dual incomes and families combining incomes on property.
Any single incomes whereby you can live in a area that offers you and children higher education and numbers of students to support certain courses are becoming unattainable.
To have basic liveability is becoming harder and harder to find making thinking outside the box to get within grasp of having a bright future possible.
.....🤔...i wish i could sing 😛
On 14th of Feb 1966 the biggest crime in Australia's history was committed.
No, it was in 1971 with the introduction of a fiat currency and the loss of the gold standard. The result is a debt based economy.
@FranksHairSalon no central banking came in with the decimal currency.
@@rodneygillespie9212 Correct.
@@FranksHairSalon Once the credit is removed the real money will come in and the house of cards will fall... the domino effect all over western countries!
I sold up in 2019 to move to the UK. Biggest mistake. I am now trying to get back in at 60yrs with two dependents and it is frightening. Many expats are moving back and it is horrific to see what is going on in the property market and it really is not sustainable for the new generations. Why can’t the government really develop regional cities, incentivise blue chips and put in fast trains. Very successful in the UK and Europe. Australia is in its own bubble.
Based on observation by all family and relatives living in other developed countries, Australia is at least 20 -25 years behind in development planning and housing plans and land use. The state govts just don't get it, and the federal govt is too busy fighting in parliament and accusing each other about historical and existing problems impacting on non wealthy citizens, including childhood poverty which should not exist in the land of Gina Rhinehart and her cronies.
@@zarinepeter5716 Plus Australia is one of the worlds biggest money laundering machines. ie via real estate. There are no checks and balances on any money being fed into Australian residential property unlike in most other western countries. The government agreed to abide by international standards 20+ years ago but since then has done nothing, neither Labor nor LNP. They are all scumbags up to their necks in the scam that Aus real estate is.
Umm have you seen what's going on in the UK lately? I wouldn't move there if you paid me.
Just stop the foreign demand and we'll be fine without the fast trains and further development. Most of us don't want massive population and more cities. We want to keep our Australian lifestyle
@@Christina-f4f However, as and Australian , I do live in the UK and on the whole is nowhere near as bad as it can be made out to be and Australia has nothing like the amazing lifestyle it is presumed to be this side of $1.5 million house + $$$$$ wage to go with it. As it stands the cost of living in the UK for us is less than Australia, something I notice on my trips back to Oz. We would like to move back but the obscene house prices say NO. The biggest drawback for us in the UK is the long winter.
Bust! Obviously!
I started buying BTC in 2020. Besides being the best investment I've made, it helps me see a way for us all to break free of the ponzi banks.
Really hope the government is buying bitcoin because USD reserves will be worthless eventually and as most Australians are completely ignorant about the coming transformation we’ll all be stuffed! Please educate yourself fast with Ray Dalio, Jeff Booth and Michael Saylor videos (in that order). Even if you don’t form a conviction, at least you’ll be educated and better prepared for the coming. Stagflation.
Me thinketh beautiful and amazing Greater West, close to stations, stopping centres with doer uppers on large blocks of land around $700,000.
Sorry girls, no ensuites or Island benchtops!@!?😉😁
Shacks surrounded by drug addicts and other assorted criminals. These houses have a real economic value of about $25K but in Australia's totally dystopian realestate wonderland, as you say $700K
Negative gearing in Aust does keep rents down! If you have every lived in USA you will know how much more renting property costs
Running out of land obviously.
Oh an addition. Negative gearing used to be for new builds, which would encourage development, now some clever anti-social personality in government threw in a few clauses!! Probably about the same time a certain prime minister sold off the Electricity/Assets in NSW, and stated 'its not a problem if house prices increase'. I'm not a mathematician, but I am not stupid either. As for the gas sell out, We are equivalent to the Saudis in gas supplies, yet Australians pay the highest gas prices/Electricity. Twiggy Forest is building Gas Tanks in Sydney/Kanibla, and Melbourne so we can buy IMPORTED gas. WTF Its like telling the Saudis to import Petrol, its a Joke. Meanwhile, the cheap gas that China and Japan are sourcing from Australia, is oversupplied so they sell it on for a profit. WTF Gross exploitation of Australian who are hard working, well the majority😀
Negative gearing is a shame n prevented so many many new home buyers buying their first home, ihave a daughter and two sons unable to into property, my children keeps on telling me , dad we can never set a foot in our first home, instead of investing in property invest in jobs.the nation is not facing housing shortages but its facing greed were one person has 10 houses and one person don't have a caravan, wat a sham, it sikens me to death.
BINGO!
Sorry,Negative gearing didn't start in 2022,2008 or 2000,but mass immigration did.Its simple maths,extra 600,000 people every year means an extra 200,000 plus houses just to have a hope of keeping up.We don't build that many houses in favourable economic conditions
Hopefully, its a total crash. Housing is so overpriced, it needs to FALL, crash. Its killing the country. Further, its not just the price of buying, rents are also ridiculous..
The housing market should NOT be used for speculation with tax breaks, etc. It should be used for families as a place to live.
It's a BS
Who cares?
The rich corporate giants will make sure 80% of us will pay rent forever amen? Just because you are the adviser?
If I told you you were talking bullshit?
One thing is sure corruption, corrupt and more corruption will keep the bubble inflated, this will require more and more immigration, so called skilled but as everyone expects those statistics are wrong yesterday and tomorrow, looking forward to the 5 hours in my highly taxed car on the way to financial brick wall