As someone who is 2 weeks short of a year in the forex market I am very thankful for this video. You have cleared some things up. I now understand that price action and technical analysis are not the same thing and should have different mindsets. I have also finally come to understand why none of the indicators work. When ever I would use indicators they would just create noise and confusion when I would trade. They never indicated the same thing either. I got rid of all but the SMA, ATR and sessions indicator. I am pretty sure I do not know what they are really used for but I know what I use them for.
I just came into contact with this channel. It's too soon to tell but thus far I am extremely curious and impressed. Thank you. This might be on a whole other level - perhaps way more advanced and valuable then 99% percent of what's on youtube. I might be getting exited prematurely but the content is really captivating at the very least...
Ed, Excellent video! Your material has changed my trading forever. I cannot look at other so-called "Trading Mentors" in same way again. You have helped my focus on trading! Also, if may I request a video topic: How you scan the markets for potential trading opportunities with the Fractal Flow methodology. Thank you again for being a REAL educator out there for folks like us!
If any technical or fundamental indicator consistently worked, everyone would use it, it would become too obvious, and people would start moving in contrarian ways to confuse it and take advantage of those who were expecting it to work every time. If anything in the markets was truly predictable the markets would cease to function properly.
New trader here. I instinctively didn’t trust most technical analysis, only thing I found a bit reliable for the 1 stock I mostly trade and don’t know if applies to other is the Bollinger, I noticed whenever that stock crossed over the high end, within 1 week it usually dropped back below it.
Yea i've been using it on the 5 min chart for a while and it does work well, the way i do it is put the bol bands on 3 deviations from the mean line instdead of the 2 deviations (deffault) so aboud 99% of the price action takes place within the bol bands, so i go long or short when it crosses the outside band and close trade at the mean line and this strategy has about an 80% win rate but the time where it doesn't work is during a very volatile move where it gives fake signals and pretty much makes you lose a ton of money and the simple way to avoid this is just going on the higher time frames such as the 30 min or the 1 hour or just using other indicators to predict a sudden crash or a high move to the upside, till now i've been very succesful with it
I recently found out that there are also adaptive indicators like the Kaufman's adaptive moving average (KAMA). This indicator changes the period it uses by itself in a very smart way. The period will range between very slow and very fast according to the market conditions. In my opinion technical indicators can be very useful when you combine them in the right way. But it's not easy and takes a lot of time.
From my experience, adaptive indicators are as bad as standard ones. I've never seen one that is capable of truly adapting to the market in the way it is supposed to.
I understand the arguments against technical indicators - my first teaching said price action is king. Ofc indicators are lagging - but I still learn them just for completeness. With this knowledge in mind I found for some indicators that they sometimes help with visualization certain information. I found that some indicators helped me to see things better. I understand the final goal is not to use them - some successfull traders still use them - but I think it may just help their cognitive process. Probably the experience with price action is the actual cause for their success. Btw: Your videos are the best I have seen so far - thank you for this great free resource!!!
@@fractalflowpro yes, my friend and I, are working together to learn how to trade and I came across your videos, I was just telling my friend that you and your work is on a completely different level. Thank you for sharing this.
Ichimoku cloud trader is using 4H chart as trend direction--& entry on 15 minute price action. However if on daily chart price is above the cloud, & on 4H chart price is below the cloud. WHICH DIRECTION SHOULD TRADER BE TRADING? Trader holds positions for 3-5 days & IS NOT A DAY TRADER OR SCALPER. 4H trend is not going to flip on A dime & IS A GOOD TREND GUIDE FOR MOST OF TRADERS EXCEPT SCALPERS.. Any suggestion/ideas/wisdom is greatly appreciated. AND Thank you.
It is very interesting! Especially because I agree about the indicators, but came to a different conclusion, which is to make indicators that don't suffer the flaws you mentionned. I actually have 3 of them, that (among other things) reveal what I'm interested to know about what's "under the tip of the iceberg" right now. And therefore they help me anticipate what is more likely to happen soon. That's giving me an edge, a system, and more confidence. What I mean is that maybe, there are good indicators...
For me, supply and demand levels are everything, here you can find price bar anomalies - large bars with small volume and small bars with large volume and all in between! Small bars packed with high volume are dynamite waiting to explode! When prices are held at a level and packed with volume, it is in fact churn in action! Smart Money actions!
I started trading using Technical Analysis, but now I want to learn Financial Mathematics but I don't know which topic to start with. I have no problem with learning Mathematics but I dont know where to start and how to applied it to Trading.
price and time. but the challenge is how to capture the right moment. We can say the price can go up or down, but when? There is a moving average with undisclosed settings can show that. Oh, I mean moving averages. one, two, or three of them will never be enough.
The closest thing you'll get to the "holy grail" (even though it's a stupid term), it's something called cointegration. It solves a major problem that most traders don't even know they have.
Your moving average with undisclosed settings ignores the fact that the settings vary with time. You don't realize the contradiction in your point of view.
It's funny. My bread and butter income trading system is so easy I could teach an 8 year old to trade it in a day or two and it's as reliable as my toyota. It's fascinating how complex it can be though.
This was an incredibly interesting video to watch man. Thank you for explaining it in such a way that makes it understandable and talking about these things.
My opinion: I love technical analysis with indicators they make me feel more confident because price action is very hard to master for beginners. I don't rely on indicators alone but analyze the context involved to make sure everything's aligned for a high probable trade. Still without indicators I may actually feel insecure from my analysis so it gives me confluence that goes along with my idea. Some MAs you've gotta remove if price won't respect these but if it does, specially the 50ma which is used by retail traders and even when you see news, you'll find references about 200 moving average and 50ma so if you're in this game for the long run, You need to understand how these work and what do experts mean when they're talking about these.
Take the time away from the indicators and pay attention to market structure. Then reintroduce the indicators when you can see potential in the structure with your own eyes and analysis. Market moves up, down, and parallel(sideways). Psychologically speaking, people chase after specifics. You can’t bottle what’s already been bottled. Numbers < data < people Trade < analysis < psychology < people What happens on the highest timeframe, there will be copies on the lower timeframes. Double top pattern on the higher timeframe can also found on the lower timeframe. Uptrend on the higher time frame? Same thing. How you apply yourself during trading and the results really speak for you. You can do it without the indicators. Give yourself a good chance to show yourself.
Thats true but traders do indicate that no tool can guarantee a 100% win, its all probabilities. Its all about chance, whehter low or high. Lots of these are based on previous behaviour.
They can be useful in trending markets as well. The point is that it's not really possible to know when a sideways market will turn into a trending market and vice versa. That's the problem.
Well....technical indicators can be very powerful practical tools. A good trader learns how to use a small number of indicators effectively, in conjunction with a number of other factors of course. This explanation here is nice but very abstract, whereas trading is immediate, real and you see the outcomes quickly. No retail trader is going to succeed using econometrics. Patient and careful traders will definitely find technical indicators that help them consistently.
There are certain technical indicators that can be used in specific situations, but most of them cannot be used effectivelly. Econometrics can be used if you have a good platform.
Find a legit trader who is making consistent money...month after month...year after year...and very very few of them use indicators. If indicators actually worked.....the market would know this and manipulate them just like they manipulate your stop loss below the support line.
@@garrydye2394 You can only manipulate so many types of moving averages on different settings and different timeframes. Trends always have to happen, and moving averages will show it visually.
Several months back, I began putting standard deviation & then linear regression channels on my charts. I keep light background lines for each of 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2 & their negative counterparts on all my timeframe charts but find most useful timeframes to be 90-day charts (with 1-hour delineations) for swing trades as well as a simple 2-day chart for intra-day. I trade when price is between +1.8 & +2 or between -1.8 & -2, as these represent the extremes akin to your example of "a drunk walking down the street will stay at least somewhere between the 2 sidewalks." Now, when price falls to -2 on a 2-day/ 3 or 5-minute chart I find I can use tools such as RSI, stochastics & MACD quite effectively when used at the extreme edges of linear regression. My "win rate" is very very high now; I'll reserve judgment until I've traded for several more months this way but it seems overwhelmingly to me that the missing piece of the puzzle was linear regression. Now all indicators take on much more useable value within the constraints of linear regression channels.
Thanks, unfortunately I can't seem to see your whole reply for some reason. I've tried to look up why that's happening but I can't figure it out. I appreciate the response though.
@@dyingelectron4392 Well, I could write a book on what've learned & added within the last year or so since my post here, but as succinctly as possible the concept of "regression to the mean" never leaves my mind... I only trade based on 1 to 2 (or -1 to -2) on very short term charts of 1 day, meaning previous day into current day. I don't use this channel exlcusivley to enter a trade, it's just 1 of a number of possible confirmations (reversal candels, volume profile, support/resistance, VIX, TNX, $DXY, market internals). On any longer term charts I find Standard Deviation or Mean Regression Channels most directly useful for spotting "pivot points" of support/resistance along angled lines (most traders only use horizontal support/resistance lines & perhaps drawn in angled trend lines but never think to run a mean regression channel from for instance the recent swing low point to current, similar to if you were adding a Fibonnacci chart). It's all enabled me to remain a successful trader. MOST IMPORTANT: The addition of directly watching VIX, TNX & $DXY to help directly time entries & exits adds incredible trading ability; similar to what the author of this video says about "needing something external to the trades we're in for perspective" vs just "indicators." Also watching market internals (Advance/Decline & $TICKS primarily) helps me know what kind of day we're having and when to go heavier or stay lighter in trades in general... Hope you're doing well, and progressing in your trading.... Best to you, & everyone!
Thank you for this video introduction which makes me got hooked to dive deeper in this topic! I have purchased the ebook and enjoying it's content and i must admit that it's a bit difficult to understands for a beginner like myself.
Very deep and understandable. Been saving up to be able to get all four institutional trading methodology ebooks you wrote. Thanks for giving us peeps into the content of the books🙏🙏
I am kinda wanting to get the book but as a noobie that I currently am, I feel that the contents will eat me alive but Im very interested. I was about to watch an indicator video but I instead watched this and Im glad I did
Hey i bought your course for price action 1 but 1 seems to be difficult its not that i am not ready but i wanna know if i do 1,2 ,3 , would that be enough to trade? Or i have to buy strategies and is the volume 2 and 3 is based on andrew pitchfork as well?
@@jeskg720 This is not so much about prediction as it is about estimating, and yes, you can estimate it with good chances. There are no guarantees though as we are dealing with Brownian motion.
@@zaynr1605 why dumb? if we want to excel we have to think outside the box. There is a reason for why watching a candle stick video wont make you a millionaire.
Thanks, ED I think most traders know that TA is BS but they don't want to accept the truth, because it's easier for them to rely on mechanical analysis that tells when to buy or sell than a subjective analysis that's why they always looking for a magical indicator (stuck in the rabbit hole)
TA works, however you are confusing FOMO, fear, greed, positioning sizing, not using stop losses, revenge trading for why most traders fail. EMOTIONS kill you not TA.
If it produces profit it's not bullshit. TA is just a lens. And any lens is better than no lens. Even if it's not the best lens. 20% of understanding beats 0%of understanding. It only seems futile to those with +20% understanding.
Good one, but too technical and beyond my reach, One simple answer why 20 MA is popular, because many people use that, so we expect something to happen near that. May be few years later people will start to look at 19 or 18 on a safer side to take action, then 20 will loose power another number will replace. I am a novice but a logical thinker.
Hi Have you ever try to remove the time element from the chart and then analyze the data ? If you build an AI, the AI will maybe decide that time is not important then trading becomes totally different yes I have study also this problem and found out that time series doesn't work , later I found out that you have to look at prediction of the price in a different way the big question is can you predict the future price with price data of the past
I learned very early in trading to IGNORE PRICE. This was mastery level for the reason mentioned. Ignore price because it's 1mm of a massive miles deep iceberg. The grandmaster level is to reintroduce price action with new understanding, and meaningful information dredged up from the noise of the depths.
econometrics seems like a terribly complicated and deep subject on its own. how do you take the concepts in econometrics that are relevant to price action on a chart and apply it successfully? not even considering how you'd dumb down the language within econometrics and the mathematical formulas within it so that the average person can understand. id really like to hear more on the topic if you can go more in depth.
Amongst click-baitey 'Buy-buy-buy' signals, here's content drawing upon a Nobel prize-winning concept. It must be the information age, when such high-quality knowledge is so easily accessible and your time, is all you pay for it.
Every moment is unique.. there is no such a thing "prediction" in trading... it is same as quantum mechanics.. we can only observe (after observation we knew actually) after something happened. Trading teach me a lot about life..
Its strange to see person from Mathematical Background saying Technical Indicators use Random Calculations and are meaningless, while on other hand also saying mathematics is 100% objective while Technical Analysis is subjective. Mathematics is objective so there is no way Technical Analysis can ever be subjective. Every calculation in mathematics has some meaning, an average in mathematics representation equality in terms of x=y, average is not a random calculation it have a specific meaning in mathematics. Average is going to work for you if you will try to trade meaning of average. I am a Technical Trader, in real sense an indicator based trader, 90% of my trades are indicator based. The reason I can trade because I know indicators are not random calculations.
Question. So I create automated trading strategies using a combo of technical indicators and price action that get great results. But I'm always looking for ways to improve them and create new ones (more out of obsession than need). So I saw your ebook which I don't mind investing in. Seems like tremendous value for the price. At the same time, my question is... is it possible once learning this info to somehow automate it? Like in this video around the 15:00 mark you show some type of cointegration indicator that you say once price is below a certain level you buy, etc. So is it possible to realistically create this type of indicator, which subsequently I could use in an automation?
Any everybody and his brother is trying to automate....you probably will not come up with anything that has not already been tried a zillion times. Every computer engineer is doing this.
Thank you 🙏 very much, you’re doing a huge efforts , but still many people are not willing to give up on technical indicators, if technical indicators really work, why there thousands and thousands of them?!
another great video. I am currently only using one technical indicator, which is the 200 period ema and sma (i guess thats 2 indicators) on the daily chart only. Would you suggest getting rid of even that? Do you think it hurts more then it helps in the long run? Thank you.
@@fractalflowpro thanks for the help. will do. I just realized I used one other indicator -VWAP. I didnt even think of it cause ive always had it on. Should I get rid of that as well?
Wow. Thank you for this lesson. This is a great foundation for a beginner. From the beginning to the end. Thank you for illustrating how vast the world is below the transitory price chart as well as for what's going below price and the foundation for how to capitalize on that world below the price.
@@khanyisilemkhize4191 watch the video again.He explained that its a combination of Economics and Statistics. in this context its a mathematical approach to technical analysis
Its interesting and I dont want to disparage the author, yet he disparages a trading system that MANY people have found successful. IN dollars and in independent living. So... my response to this is the ... the guy who takes all the indicators and runs it 100 times and publishes the results... The Trading Rush Channel... So with that and others (books included) whats underneath that "iceberg" which is, that it is NEVER ONE indicator which is the gold chalice, its always a number of things, along with experience, along with NEWS, along with Level 2, along with instinct, etc that builds a successful account. And to disregard all of these things nonchalantly is... borders on arrogance. But I don't know enough about what he is saying in Co-integration and I appreciate his Nobel Prize winning guy who did the work on it and its something to consider. But to flatly pan everything else and say this is the "right" way, smells of gnostic behavior. Especially since I was trading in the 90s, my account was always around 10-15 percent increase, (I stopped because of the stream of scandals, Enron, MCI, etc) and now, thanks to God, its about 68 percent, but was about 113 percent in January (inflation fears, I think was a factor, but looking to get back over 100 percent quickly). So these things are not ... hokum. But its never ONE thing at the expense of all others, its a combination of things along with experience (of clean and dirty trading.) And other elements I cant get into now. SO I would say look at Trading Rush like channels and you will see for yourself what I'm saying. Its always parts of a whole. Finally I will look at his Cointegration concepts and see, but I wish the author wouldn't pan EVERYTHING like its poison, because its not, and it does smell of gnosticism... perhaps its not. Perhaps its a better way, I just don't like the flat repudiation of everything else.
Thanks so much for this. Even as a beginner, I believe technical analysis is pretty much useless... In most cases I just use support, resistance, and trend lines...
What kind of track record you have to prove and back your statements with some real trading and results?I can not find any name or person behind all this? Why I should trust you and spend time on something I dont even know if it works at all?
am following standarad devation(valuaiton lines) and chart patterns for trading to me technical indicators just for reference purpose rest depends on volumes and price action ( then what is the use of creating so many indicators(its my personal view)
I won't lie but these topics hard to chew or even understand how it could help me in my own trades. but still worth gold to dig deeper on such knowledge. I am really appreciate your hard work and respect your perspective of the market. Thank you for opening new gates of knowledge and learning.
I agree with most, but not all. I've tested lots of indicators as well as price action strategies. Non works by it self. Even with price action analysis it's a 10-15%. The rest is money management and trading psychology. I have discovered a technical indicators strategy that works. So far in the back testing this strategy has outperformed every other known indicator when used in automated trading. With manual trading you need a very strict sl , trailing stop because you can't open position as fast as a bot. The problem with all indicators and price action analysis is that they perform terribly in choppy, non trending markets. All indicators will grasp a good strong trend, but when the market is not trending you are doomed.
Indicators do work in sideways markets, but you have to change their setting. The problem is that it's difficult to know when there is going to be a trend and when there is going to be a sideways market.
5 year trader, first fractal flow video iv come across and im glad i did! Very interesting information, looking forward to going through all of your content!, GREAT WORK BROTHER!!
First of all would like to say thank you for your amazing video and contents so summarising it for a trader it’s better to trade in a sideways market Amazing thank you
Holy cow!!! That was by far the most “technical “ video I saw from end-to-end… never ever heard most of the terminology. Thanks for the info.
Man. Who knows how much time and money the information in this video will save people. Sincere thanks, brother.
As someone who is 2 weeks short of a year in the forex market I am very thankful for this video. You have cleared some things up. I now understand that price action and technical analysis are not the same thing and should have different mindsets. I have also finally come to understand why none of the indicators work. When ever I would use indicators they would just create noise and confusion when I would trade. They never indicated the same thing either. I got rid of all but the SMA, ATR and sessions indicator. I am pretty sure I do not know what they are really used for but I know what I use them for.
I just came into contact with this channel. It's too soon to tell but thus far I am extremely curious and impressed. Thank you. This might be on a whole other level - perhaps way more advanced and valuable then 99% percent of what's on youtube. I might be getting exited prematurely but the content is really captivating at the very least...
Best trading education on youtube! My new favourite channel! Make more! Can't stop watching!
"Meaningful information is in the noise of price action" should be the motto of every single trader! Thank you for another meaningful video.
To minimise the price noise of min chart, is the use of renko the solution?
Renko will erase the nuances of price that make possible to extract some good information of the chart.
So heiken ashi erased the nuances too?
Or how to actually use the heiken ashi Sir?
Thank you..
@@fractalflowpro фф
Thank you sir.
Maximum people don’t like to share what they learnt but you are different
Ed,
Excellent video! Your material has changed my trading forever. I cannot look at other so-called "Trading Mentors" in same way again. You have helped my focus on trading! Also, if may I request a video topic: How you scan the markets for potential trading opportunities with the Fractal Flow methodology. Thank you again for being a REAL educator out there for folks like us!
If any technical or fundamental indicator consistently worked, everyone would use it, it would become too obvious, and people would start moving in contrarian ways to confuse it and take advantage of those who were expecting it to work every time. If anything in the markets was truly predictable the markets would cease to function properly.
Precisely.
New trader here. I instinctively didn’t trust most technical analysis, only thing I found a bit reliable for the 1 stock I mostly trade and don’t know if applies to other is the Bollinger, I noticed whenever that stock crossed over the high end, within 1 week it usually dropped back below it.
Yea i've been using it on the 5 min chart for a while and it does work well, the way i do it is put the bol bands on 3 deviations from the mean line instdead of the 2 deviations (deffault) so aboud 99% of the price action takes place within the bol bands, so i go long or short when it crosses the outside band and close trade at the mean line and this strategy has about an 80% win rate but the time where it doesn't work is during a very volatile move where it gives fake signals and pretty much makes you lose a ton of money and the simple way to avoid this is just going on the higher time frames such as the 30 min or the 1 hour or just using other indicators to predict a sudden crash or a high move to the upside, till now i've been very succesful with it
Yeah for me too
That's for taking the time to explain. You didn't have to but you did. Awesome content👆👑
Love from south Africa🇿🇦
Stay safe out here bro 🙏🏻🇿🇦
I recently found out that there are also adaptive indicators like the Kaufman's adaptive moving average (KAMA). This indicator changes the period it uses by itself in a very smart way. The period will range between very slow and very fast according to the market conditions. In my opinion technical indicators can be very useful when you combine them in the right way. But it's not easy and takes a lot of time.
From my experience, adaptive indicators are as bad as standard ones. I've never seen one that is capable of truly adapting to the market in the way it is supposed to.
I understand the arguments against technical indicators - my first teaching said price action is king. Ofc indicators are lagging - but I still learn them just for completeness. With this knowledge in mind I found for some indicators that they sometimes help with visualization certain information. I found that some indicators helped me to see things better. I understand the final goal is not to use them - some successfull traders still use them - but I think it may just help their cognitive process. Probably the experience with price action is the actual cause for their success. Btw: Your videos are the best I have seen so far - thank you for this great free resource!!!
There are ways of using indicators, but many of the most famous claims associated with them are completely false.
You are by far the most knowledgeable trader I have seen on TH-cam, this amazing, each second I learn something more that no one is talking about.
Thank you, but that's not hard to do in a place where everyone talks about scalping and moving averages.
@@fractalflowpro yes, my friend and I, are working together to learn how to trade and I came across your videos, I was just telling my friend that you and your work is on a completely different level. Thank you for sharing this.
Great. I hope it helps.
Man, You are GREAT. You are tackling the questions in my mind since I've seen the charts.
So, what's next ?😍
Ichimoku cloud trader is using 4H chart as trend direction--& entry on 15 minute price action. However if on daily chart price is above the cloud, & on 4H chart price is below the cloud. WHICH DIRECTION SHOULD TRADER BE TRADING? Trader holds positions for 3-5 days & IS NOT A DAY TRADER OR SCALPER. 4H trend is not going to flip on A dime & IS A GOOD TREND GUIDE FOR MOST OF TRADERS EXCEPT SCALPERS.. Any suggestion/ideas/wisdom is greatly appreciated. AND Thank you.
This is and will always be the best video I have ever seen, very informative, I'm new to TA awesome content thank you.
It is very interesting! Especially because I agree about the indicators, but came to a different conclusion, which is to make indicators that don't suffer the flaws you mentionned. I actually have 3 of them, that (among other things) reveal what I'm interested to know about what's "under the tip of the iceberg" right now. And therefore they help me anticipate what is more likely to happen soon. That's giving me an edge, a system, and more confidence. What I mean is that maybe, there are good indicators...
What should we as a trader should focus on while trying to built a system for trading. I know pitchfork is there..but what else .. please guide us
Incredible video. Thank you 🙏🏾 😊
Sir...u r a pioneer...u r genius than FII's
For me, supply and demand levels are everything, here you can find price bar anomalies - large bars with small volume and small bars with large volume and all in between! Small bars packed with high volume are dynamite waiting to explode! When prices are held at a level and packed with volume, it is in fact churn in action! Smart Money actions!
I started trading using Technical Analysis, but now I want to learn Financial Mathematics but I don't know which topic to start with. I have no problem with learning Mathematics but I dont know where to start and how to applied it to Trading.
price and time. but the challenge is how to capture the right moment. We can say the price can go up or down, but when? There is a moving average with undisclosed settings can show that. Oh, I mean moving averages. one, two, or three of them will never be enough.
The closest thing you'll get to the "holy grail" (even though it's a stupid term), it's something called cointegration. It solves a major problem that most traders don't even know they have.
@@fractalflowpro not even close
haha sure.. please educate me on the holy grail
@@fractalflowpro why should I?
Your moving average with undisclosed settings ignores the fact that the settings vary with time. You don't realize the contradiction in your point of view.
It's funny. My bread and butter income trading system is so easy I could teach an 8 year old to trade it in a day or two and it's as reliable as my toyota. It's fascinating how complex it can be though.
After a month trolling through free trading videos, I finally learned something on this one. Thanks.
Finally found the perfect channel🎉🎉🎉🎉
Hey mate. Thank you for your content! Just subscribed🙏
This was an incredibly interesting video to watch man. Thank you for explaining it in such a way that makes it understandable and talking about these things.
I'm glad you found it easy to understand!
My opinion: I love technical analysis with indicators they make me feel more confident because price action is very hard to master for beginners. I don't rely on indicators alone but analyze the context involved to make sure everything's aligned for a high probable trade. Still without indicators I may actually feel insecure from my analysis so it gives me confluence that goes along with my idea. Some MAs you've gotta remove if price won't respect these but if it does, specially the 50ma which is used by retail traders and even when you see news, you'll find references about 200 moving average and 50ma so if you're in this game for the long run, You need to understand how these work and what do experts mean when they're talking about these.
Take the time away from the indicators and pay attention to market structure.
Then reintroduce the indicators when you can see potential in the structure with your own eyes and analysis.
Market moves up, down, and parallel(sideways).
Psychologically speaking, people chase after specifics. You can’t bottle what’s already been bottled.
Numbers < data < people
Trade < analysis < psychology < people
What happens on the highest timeframe, there will be copies on the lower timeframes.
Double top pattern on the higher timeframe can also found on the lower timeframe.
Uptrend on the higher time frame? Same thing.
How you apply yourself during trading and the results really speak for you.
You can do it without the indicators. Give yourself a good chance to show yourself.
Thats true but traders do indicate that no tool can guarantee a 100% win, its all probabilities. Its all about chance, whehter low or high. Lots of these are based on previous behaviour.
so the indicators are useless in the trend but useful in the side market?, what would be the useful indicators in the trend?
They can be useful in trending markets as well. The point is that it's not really possible to know when a sideways market will turn into a trending market and vice versa. That's the problem.
@@fractalflowpro I think it's all about price action and fundamental analysis.
Yes, price action analysis is much better than technical indicators for the most part.
@@fractalflowpro to start a beginner of crypto/ stocks/commodities, if the indicators are wrong which strategies to use?
@@fractalflowpro risk management, are there any secrets?, is there an effective strategy you recommend?
Please l need the ebook
Well....technical indicators can be very powerful practical tools.
A good trader learns how to use a small number of indicators effectively, in conjunction with a number of other factors of course. This explanation here is nice but very abstract, whereas trading is immediate, real and you see the outcomes quickly. No retail trader is going to succeed using econometrics. Patient and careful traders will definitely find technical indicators that help them consistently.
There are certain technical indicators that can be used in specific situations, but most of them cannot be used effectivelly. Econometrics can be used if you have a good platform.
Find a legit trader who is making consistent money...month after month...year after year...and very very few of them use indicators. If indicators actually worked.....the market would know this and manipulate them just like they manipulate your stop loss below the support line.
@@garrydye2394 You can only manipulate so many types of moving averages on different settings and different timeframes. Trends always have to happen, and moving averages will show it visually.
Several months back, I began putting standard deviation & then linear regression channels on my charts. I keep light background lines for each of 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2 & their negative counterparts on all my timeframe charts but find most useful timeframes to be 90-day charts (with 1-hour delineations) for swing trades as well as a simple 2-day chart for intra-day. I trade when price is between +1.8 & +2 or between -1.8 & -2, as these represent the extremes akin to your example of "a drunk walking down the street will stay at least somewhere between the 2 sidewalks." Now, when price falls to -2 on a 2-day/ 3 or 5-minute chart I find I can use tools such as RSI, stochastics & MACD quite effectively when used at the extreme edges of linear regression. My "win rate" is very very high now; I'll reserve judgment until I've traded for several more months this way but it seems overwhelmingly to me that the missing piece of the puzzle was linear regression. Now all indicators take on much more useable value within the constraints of linear regression channels.
are you using tradingview? I couldn't get the settings to your specifications. I'm not sure if I'm doing it right.
Thanks, unfortunately I can't seem to see your whole reply for some reason. I've tried to look up why that's happening but I can't figure it out. I appreciate the response though.
Please let us know about your progress so far
@@dyingelectron4392 Well, I could write a book on what've learned & added within the last year or so since my post here, but as succinctly as possible the concept of "regression to the mean" never leaves my mind... I only trade based on 1 to 2 (or -1 to -2) on very short term charts of 1 day, meaning previous day into current day. I don't use this channel exlcusivley to enter a trade, it's just 1 of a number of possible confirmations (reversal candels, volume profile, support/resistance, VIX, TNX, $DXY, market internals). On any longer term charts I find Standard Deviation or Mean Regression Channels most directly useful for spotting "pivot points" of support/resistance along angled lines (most traders only use horizontal support/resistance lines & perhaps drawn in angled trend lines but never think to run a mean regression channel from for instance the recent swing low point to current, similar to if you were adding a Fibonnacci chart). It's all enabled me to remain a successful trader. MOST IMPORTANT: The addition of directly watching VIX, TNX & $DXY to help directly time entries & exits adds incredible trading ability; similar to what the author of this video says about "needing something external to the trades we're in for perspective" vs just "indicators." Also watching market internals (Advance/Decline & $TICKS primarily) helps me know what kind of day we're having and when to go heavier or stay lighter in trades in general... Hope you're doing well, and progressing in your trading.... Best to you, & everyone!
Thank you for this video introduction which makes me got hooked to dive deeper in this topic! I have purchased the ebook and enjoying it's content and i must admit that it's a bit difficult to understands for a beginner like myself.
I can't understand :(
Very deep and understandable. Been saving up to be able to get all four institutional trading methodology ebooks you wrote. Thanks for giving us peeps into the content of the books🙏🙏
Email me
Which is the 4th one? I only know fractal flow strategy
Market maker method
Pitchfork strategy
I am kinda wanting to get the book but as a noobie that I currently am, I feel that the contents will eat me alive but Im very interested. I was about to watch an indicator video but I instead watched this and Im glad I did
The mathematics is not that complicated.
Hey i bought your course for price action 1 but 1 seems to be difficult its not that i am not ready but i wanna know if i do 1,2 ,3 , would that be enough to trade? Or i have to buy strategies and is the volume 2 and 3 is based on andrew pitchfork as well?
Awesome Sir 😘😘
Please upload
Detail price action & support and resistance
Price is also lagging by definition. We look at historical data. Even if its just 1 second or 1 tic ago.
That's a not a very practical road to go down to.
@@fractalflowpro the unanswered question still standing, all our information is lagging, can we use that info to predict the future or not?
@@jeskg720 This is not so much about prediction as it is about estimating, and yes, you can estimate it with good chances. There are no guarantees though as we are dealing with Brownian motion.
What a dumb thing to say . @jes kg
@@zaynr1605 why dumb? if we want to excel we have to think outside the box. There is a reason for why watching a candle stick video wont make you a millionaire.
Thank for the information supplied I would to get name of your book ? I am in deep research as beginner training trader thank you
Statistical Arbitrage by Cointegration. See the video description.
Thanks, ED
I think most traders know that TA is BS but they don't want to accept the truth, because it's easier for them to rely on mechanical analysis that tells when to buy or sell than a subjective analysis that's why they always looking for a magical indicator (stuck in the rabbit hole)
Indeed
TA works, however you are confusing FOMO, fear, greed, positioning sizing, not using stop losses, revenge trading for why most traders fail. EMOTIONS kill you not TA.
Have you ever wondered why thoses things you described are so common with traders who use TA?
If it produces profit it's not bullshit. TA is just a lens. And any lens is better than no lens. Even if it's not the best lens. 20% of understanding beats 0%of understanding. It only seems futile to those with +20% understanding.
There are better lenses
Good one, but too technical and beyond my reach, One simple answer why 20 MA is popular, because many people use that, so we expect something to happen near that. May be few years later people will start to look at 19 or 18 on a safer side to take action, then 20 will loose power another number will replace. I am a novice but a logical thinker.
Whenever some opportunity becomes too obvious, it disappears.
Thank you for you time and patience .... This is amazing ..... 🙌🏾💯
Thanks for the feedback
Hi
Have you ever try to remove the time element from the chart and then analyze the data ?
If you build an AI, the AI will maybe decide that time is not important
then trading becomes totally different
yes I have study also this problem and found out that time series doesn't work ,
later I found out that you have to look at prediction of the price in a different way
the big question is can you predict the future price with price data of the past
Make sense. Well explained.
Means a lot, thanks,
I learned very early in trading to IGNORE PRICE. This was mastery level for the reason mentioned. Ignore price because it's 1mm of a massive miles deep iceberg. The grandmaster level is to reintroduce price action with new understanding, and meaningful information dredged up from the noise of the depths.
So what do you recommend?
There is only 1 technical indicator, your gut instinct!
Our gut instinct evolved to avoid lions in the savanna. Not to trade the markets.
Do you trade using these methods explained in your book?
Yes!
econometrics seems like a terribly complicated and deep subject on its own. how do you take the concepts in econometrics that are relevant to price action on a chart and apply it successfully? not even considering how you'd dumb down the language within econometrics and the mathematical formulas within it so that the average person can understand. id really like to hear more on the topic if you can go more in depth.
price action is thr only googd method. my question is what about method based on td sequential as its based on the price action only.
Price action is not the only good method. Econometric models are far superior.
@@fractalflowpro does it work in Scalping also?
Need to save up the money for your book :)
@@fractalflowpro your videos are eye opener though cant make it in trading from long time but i am lagging as indicator. 😅
Amongst click-baitey 'Buy-buy-buy' signals, here's content drawing upon a Nobel prize-winning concept.
It must be the information age, when such high-quality knowledge is so easily accessible and your time, is all you pay for it.
Thanks a lot and U have a beautiful voice
Wow this is a real eye opener thank you so much
Isn't arbitrage illegal at every broker?
There are many kinds of arbitrage. Statistical arbitrage is not illegal.
Please provide English captions (subtitles) to the video. I can not follow or understand without them. please and thank you very much!
It is available in TH-cam itself.. Just select that option...
Every moment is unique.. there is no such a thing "prediction" in trading... it is same as quantum mechanics.. we can only observe (after observation we knew actually) after something happened. Trading teach me a lot about life..
Thanks forex king so nice explanation and illustrations
Awesome content man
Its strange to see person from Mathematical Background saying Technical Indicators use Random Calculations and are meaningless, while on other hand also saying mathematics is 100% objective while Technical Analysis is subjective. Mathematics is objective so there is no way Technical Analysis can ever be subjective. Every calculation in mathematics has some meaning, an average in mathematics representation equality in terms of x=y, average is not a random calculation it have a specific meaning in mathematics. Average is going to work for you if you will try to trade meaning of average. I am a Technical Trader, in real sense an indicator based trader, 90% of my trades are indicator based. The reason I can trade because I know indicators are not random calculations.
Technical analysis is not subjective. Price Action analysis is subjective.
@@fractalflowpro TA is subjective! PA is objective but our interpretation of it is something else!
Can someone call Elon Musk and tell him to invest in this information👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏👏
Question. So I create automated trading strategies using a combo of technical indicators and price action that get great results. But I'm always looking for ways to improve them and create new ones (more out of obsession than need). So I saw your ebook which I don't mind investing in. Seems like tremendous value for the price. At the same time, my question is... is it possible once learning this info to somehow automate it? Like in this video around the 15:00 mark you show some type of cointegration indicator that you say once price is below a certain level you buy, etc. So is it possible to realistically create this type of indicator, which subsequently I could use in an automation?
Yes sir. It's possible to automate institutional methods, but it's a nightmare.
Any everybody and his brother is trying to automate....you probably will not come up with anything that has not already been tried a zillion times. Every computer engineer is doing this.
Thank you 🙏 very much, you’re doing a huge efforts , but still many people are not willing to give up on technical indicators, if technical indicators really work, why there thousands and thousands of them?!
Because good things are rare haha
Very interesting topic on cointegration model. Learning a lot. Thank you
another great video. I am currently only using one technical indicator, which is the 200 period ema and sma (i guess thats 2 indicators) on the daily chart only. Would you suggest getting rid of even that? Do you think it hurts more then it helps in the long run? Thank you.
Get rid of it
@@fractalflowpro thanks for the help. will do. I just realized I used one other indicator -VWAP. I didnt even think of it cause ive always had it on. Should I get rid of that as well?
@@user-hz7fe2pc1x I'm not too familiar with VWAP to give a honest opinion
@@fractalflowpro ok thank u. Im taking it, u dont use it, so ill try getting rid of it for a while and see how it affects my trading.
Was your trading affected ?
Very true, I am a beginner I totally agree you. I trade using tech analysis and now I am on losing streak.
Would be very interesting if you covered the statistical ...cointegration book ,chapter by chapter .
You can read the book also
@@fractalflowpro I'll definitely read the book as I'm studying these techniques as part of my studies
Love it thanks again. Great as always
U said Dark secrets ...But had Put every slide in Bright Colors ...Annoying see this night time...btw Good info Bro
interesting discussion on how to predict the future, which, of course cannot be done.
I agree. You can estimate it based on statistical stability or repeatable patterns though.
Wow. Thank you for this lesson. This is a great foundation for a beginner. From the beginning to the end. Thank you for illustrating how vast the world is below the transitory price chart as well as for what's going below price and the foundation for how to capitalize on that world below the price.
Now I'm thinking to pursue my masters degree in econometrics. I want to study it.
Do it!
What is econometrics all about?
@@khanyisilemkhize4191 watch the video again.He explained that its a combination of Economics and Statistics. in this context its a mathematical approach to technical analysis
Awesome strategy. One of your strategy made me a profitable trader. Thanks man.
THANK U DER
LOVE U :)
Its interesting and I dont want to disparage the author, yet he disparages a trading system that MANY people have found successful. IN dollars and in independent living. So... my response to this is the ... the guy who takes all the indicators and runs it 100 times and publishes the results... The Trading Rush Channel... So with that and others (books included) whats underneath that "iceberg" which is, that it is NEVER ONE indicator which is the gold chalice, its always a number of things, along with experience, along with NEWS, along with Level 2, along with instinct, etc that builds a successful account. And to disregard all of these things nonchalantly is... borders on arrogance. But I don't know enough about what he is saying in Co-integration and I appreciate his Nobel Prize winning guy who did the work on it and its something to consider. But to flatly pan everything else and say this is the "right" way, smells of gnostic behavior. Especially since I was trading in the 90s, my account was always around 10-15 percent increase, (I stopped because of the stream of scandals, Enron, MCI, etc) and now, thanks to God, its about 68 percent, but was about 113 percent in January (inflation fears, I think was a factor, but looking to get back over 100 percent quickly). So these things are not ... hokum. But its never ONE thing at the expense of all others, its a combination of things along with experience (of clean and dirty trading.) And other elements I cant get into now.
SO I would say look at Trading Rush like channels and you will see for yourself what I'm saying. Its always parts of a whole.
Finally I will look at his Cointegration concepts and see, but I wish the author wouldn't pan EVERYTHING like its poison, because its not, and it does smell of gnosticism... perhaps its not. Perhaps its a better way, I just don't like the flat repudiation of everything else.
Sir how do institutions trade?
Mostly arbitrage and hedging.
@@fractalflowpro then who trade in options?
There are arbitrage and hedging strategies in options
@@fractalflowpro can retailers make money in options in long run?
Yes, that's exactly what I talk about in my eBooks
Good talk and explanation.
Thanks so much for this. Even as a beginner, I believe technical analysis is pretty much useless... In most cases I just use support, resistance, and trend lines...
@@masteringtao6320 people must do what is working for them i trade technicals
What kind of track record you have to prove and back your statements with some real trading and results?I can not find any name or person behind all this? Why I should trust you and spend time on something I dont even know if it works at all?
I didn't invent econometrics. It's an established science.
widen the range based on alpha or the sector and size it well according to staying power.
You're a genius. Seriously.
am following standarad devation(valuaiton lines) and chart patterns for trading to me technical indicators just for reference purpose rest depends on volumes and price action ( then what is the use of creating so many indicators(its my personal view)
Ahhh! How many deviations do you go out on your charts? I use 4, since some stocks tend to stay over 3 for a while before finally pulling back
Many thanks; I enjoy your work.
I won't lie but these topics hard to chew or even understand how it could help me in my own trades. but still worth gold to dig deeper on such knowledge. I am really appreciate your hard work and respect your perspective of the market. Thank you for opening new gates of knowledge and learning.
I agree with most, but not all. I've tested lots of indicators as well as price action strategies. Non works by it self. Even with price action analysis it's a 10-15%. The rest is money management and trading psychology. I have discovered a technical indicators strategy that works. So far in the back testing this strategy has outperformed every other known indicator when used in automated trading. With manual trading you need a very strict sl , trailing stop because you can't open position as fast as a bot. The problem with all indicators and price action analysis is that they perform terribly in choppy, non trending markets. All indicators will grasp a good strong trend, but when the market is not trending you are doomed.
Indicators do work in sideways markets, but you have to change their setting. The problem is that it's difficult to know when there is going to be a trend and when there is going to be a sideways market.
@@fractalflowpro complete bollocks my friend
@@ArunHDGaming Good argument
@@fractalflowpro look down
people get upset with me when I try to explain these same conceptual problems with indicators... they don't want to hear it
Yes, denial is a problem with these traders.
Absolutely correct. however, it ends up working, because the market is rigged.
Interesting video, mate. Thanks!
5 year trader, first fractal flow video iv come across and im glad i did! Very interesting information, looking forward to going through all of your content!, GREAT WORK BROTHER!!
Proper G this is great explanation
I have subscribe this channel which is far advance and simple in explanation....tq sir
No one could explain the difference between TA and PA. TA is just indicators?
Basically yes. Well, some people might disagree, but in my view yes.
Damn the price of that book :( Love your content btw :)
great love from Kenya!
Ww unafanya kazi kampuni Gani😁😁
Another Kenyan here
very good method of learning theway u teach keep update
GOD bless. Thanks 😊
First of all would like to say thank you for your amazing video and contents so summarising it for a trader it’s better to trade in a sideways market
Amazing thank you