Feels like our own military industrial complex is beginning to hobble us. My American pride compels me to shrug it off and rest on the, “but our stuff and people are better”. This in my view is a dangerous hubris in these changing times.
one thing i notice about this video is the framing of taiwan as a xi personal pet project. It really isn't its a national endevour since the KMT retreat to taiwan that all chinese considers essential. An independent taiwan means it has the authority to host an american base 100 miles off the shore of china. Ask any chinese, even the ones over seas, and they will tell you the samething. taiwan was a long term project for the chinese before xi.. and it will remain one after xi is out of the office. The chinese will reunify with taiwan at its time of its own choosing. not at the speculation of u.s or any foreign media.
@Apsoy Pike china graduates 600k stem degrees a year. us graduates 60k. That GAP is now a chasm. Only way for u.s to compete with china is to actually fix its domestic issues like education, heatlhcare and inequality. There won't be any contest once chinese GDP is 2-3x that of the u.s
@@levelazn China just has way more people in general though. The US has 332,403,650. China has 1.426 billion. 60k is still way too low though. The US should have around a quarter of China's be keeping up proportionately. Ideally more. You're never going to see parity though.
American stuff were better in the 1990s, the time when they were designed. To think they'll still be better in 2025 against Chinese stuff designed in the 2020s is not just hurbis, its suicide. Case in point, each Type 055 has 48x 850mm by 9m deep VLS cell that can carry hypersonic missiles, a single Chinese CSG with 2x 055 and 2x 052D has 160 hypersonic tubes, meanwhile Mk-41 on Burkes are too small to fit any of USN's future hypersonic rounds.
@Apsoy Pike A few points about air power: - YF-22 first flight was 1990, it was designed in the late 80s against 80s Soviet threat profile, "modernization" contract was only awarded last year running until 2031. - X-35 first flight was 2000, it was designed in late 90s against the same threat profile as LCS and Ford class, i.e. Iran, without knowledge of J-20, and we all know the problems it has. - J-20 first flight was 2011, it was designed in the late 2000s singularly against F-22 and F-35, with full knowledge of, and depending on what you believe, full inside intellgence on both, and it has been constantly upgraded twice over the 2010s, now with a 2-seater drone command version. It's the same as Burkes vs Type 055/052D, US is the side with quantity vs fewer but better Chinese stuff, and even that's about to end with new Chinese fighter plants 1.5x larger than USAF Plant 4. Admiral Charles Richard didn't just say what he did for nothing, the fact that most American immediately think he just want more funding tells you just out of touch American public is from military realities.
I read a book awhile ago that included quite a bit on the Repulse and Prince of Wales. A reporter was on board listening to the chatter of the sailors. They repeatedly remarked to the effect that the Japanese were not a real threat. These same men were soon struggling against fire and water as both ships were sunk by the Japanese forces that were "not very good." I have always thought that you should approach a fight with the assumption the other guy is at least as strong as you are until they prove otherwise.
@@tcm81 G'day, Not "Bravado"... Simple White Supremacist British Imperial Racism. Multiplied by grandiose delusions of Glory, nurtured on stories of "The Empire on which the Sun never set..." ; and fantasies involving Japanese Military personnel all being both short-sighted and mentally retarded, while the Japanese Aircraft were all made of Rice-Paper and Bamboo - and they flew slowly going backwards, to keep the dust out of the Pilots' Eyes... Instead, the Prince of Wales & the Repulse relied on Vickers bloody VILDEBEASTES and Brewster Buffaloes to keep the Bettys and Zeroes away. The Leadership of the A.B.D.A Forces in the Pacific (Australian, British, Dutch & AmeriKan...) was bedevilled by Communication Failure, Imagination Failure, Intelligence Failure, Logistical Failure, Strategic Incompetance and an overweaning reliance on the deep Theological conviction that God was a White English Man, and thus..., "Gott Mit UNS...!" ; and how very funny, that the squinty-eyed little Yellow Fellows would have the temerity to try to stand up to their EuroPeon BETTERS.... When Japan bombed Hawaii, Singapore, Hong Kong and invaded Malaya and the Phillipines all on 7 December 1941, ABDA Command collectively shit itself. In February '42, when Darwin was bombed, the RAAF was possessed of ONE Monoplane Fighter with a retractable Undercarraige and a closed Canopy, a Mk-1 Hawker Hurricane...; it had no Guns though, and it was based at Point Cook in Melbourne, diametrically across the continent from Darwin - where it was only ever flown to stage Aerobatic Displays at Recruiting Events to entice enlistment in the RAAF's Empire Aircrew Training Scheme and being fed as Replacements into the RAF's War with Germany & Italy... Happily enough, from my viewpoint (30° S., 151° E...), Japan never had any intentions or plans to invade or occupy Oz - let alone any ships, planes, tanks, men, fuel, food, weapons, ammunition, trucks or strategic reserves required to launch and sustain an Invasion. Therefore, the Japanese Bicycle Brigades never did land at Darwin, to pedal across Oz (advancing like hot knives through butter as they did when coming down the Malayan Peninsula) to test the Western Defences of Sydney when they encountered "The Brisbane (To Melbourne) Line...". The Curtis P-40s which were available to be bombed in Darwin in Feb. '42 were being operated by the US Army Air Corps, and were enroute to Timor (in ignorance of the fact that Timor was already in Japanese hands at that point) when the IJN Carrier Aircraft hit Darwin. Racism, especially Imperial Military Racism..., was a VERY Big motivating factor within the mindsets of ALL the participating Combatants in both World Wars...; it is standard operating procedure to De-Humanise the Designated "Enemy" (Any Me ?) - by describing them as "vermin..., rats..., cockroaches..., untermenchen (sub-humans), devils, pagan worshippers of false Godtheories, rapists and baby-killers... And they cheat at Criquet, too ; by Jove ! And so, on ALL sides of EVERY Combat..., as they rationalise their beliefs and behaviour to themselves, ALL the people preparing to kill Strangers parrot the same tired old universally paranoid "justification"... "They fight to kill us, because they hate us..., whereas we fight to kill them because we love our Family, Hearth, and Homeland...; so by the Grace of our Godtheory, we DESERVE to win..., because They are all EVIL !". I, personally, cannot see where the Universal Creator Godtheory might find room for a One Thousandth of an inch Feeler-Guage to fit between the moral and ethical positions of ANYBODY and EVERYBODY who chooses to participate in War, trying to kill Strangers, for pay..., on any side of every Conflict. So, in a sense..., what War appears to be good for (apart from teaching Geography to the AmeriKans...!) is to enable everybody who believes in making the World a better place by blowing stuff up and killing Strangers, to actively compost each other's DNA. Eventually, all the DNA required to build a Human Brain hosting a Mind capable of agreeing to engage in Waaauugh(!)..., will have been composted ; and then, finally, The Meek...; SHALL Inherit The Earth....! Right now, apparently, almost 8 Billion bloodyminded Dickheads are eagerly clamouring for War - all as confident and eager as were the Imperial Sailors, Soldiers and Aircrew, in World War Two, as they praised their Lords of War and polished their Ammunition while planning great Victories and imagining themselves enjoying the "Spoils of War". Karma Cuts ALL Ways.... Such is life. ;-p Ciao !
Denigration of other militaries has always played a part in war. Much of it is due to some racism, as imperial powers are loath to admit that their subjects could even stand up to them. The British were astounded that their colonial subjects were not totally against the 'enemy' when they had been treating them like dirt for decades beforehand. The fact that the Japanese were even worse after those countries were conquered should not be an excuse for the horrid treatment the British gave to their subject.s
@@skydiverclassc2031 The British always took the Japanese seriously from a military perspective. Look at Kitchener's visit to Japan. Kitchener, Major General Sir Henry Rawlinson and other officers went to observe the Imperial Grand manoeuvres of the Japanese army in 1909.
The fall of Singapore was a total disaster. The UK totally blew that and a lot of POWs suffered due to the total incompetence of British High Command. The Pacific wasn’t even on the radar while Germany was threatening England. They basically abandoned Australia to their militia, and if it wasn’t for the US and MacArthur fleeing to Australia, Australia would have been hung out to dry without any military equipment to fight the Japanese. We are doomed to repeat history if we don’t start realising the threat and building up to counter it. Shrinking our fleets and budgets is not the appropriate approach at this time in history.
@@robertd7073 unfortunately, China doesn't care about what you think. They're going to do what they want anyway, and as always, they'll continue their conquests when they prove to themselves that appeasement means that they can take what they want. The fool is the one who thinks bullies just change to pacifism when bullying gets them what they want. Chamberlain thought Hitler would stop at Poland too.
True!! The British royalty always had the blunder of ranking rich narcissistic entitled idiots to high officer status. Most never earned it and had no respect for the enlisted. They considered the enlisted as a lower class that were dumb and uneducated. You know, just like the people we vote for think about us. The over confident British thought that no one can beat them. Marshal seen that and when we started WW2, Marshal rotated his generals constantly. It worked then, but in Korea it was a catastrophe and soldiers and grunts died of hypothermia, starvation and non reinforcement. My Arthur though the Chinese of being laundry cleaning, stone aged people. Even today, I hear of Navy pilots thinking that no other country can get under the wire of a Carrier. The next major battle against a country that can hurt or Navy, Will! Because of over confidence. Like Pearl Harbor. And I think the US Navy will realize that the Carrier will be what the battleship was in WW2. We don’t need a huge ship full of fuel and thousands of people and 90 aircraft to sail half way across the world to launch a jet to go another 700 miles to drop a 500 pound bomb. Today, because of satellite tech. The carrier is not a small camouflage ship in a huge Ocean and hypersonic tech makes it a lot easier to hit a carrier, then a destroyer that zigzags. Because of the F-18 blunder(fighter, tanker, EAWS) CVN’S have to sail closer to land and re fuel a lot more. The 18 was already an inferior bird to the 14 and still is even though a14 wouldn’t stand a chance in todays tech. More Destroyers, and subs, and less CVNs. The CVN-73 is still in the yards for a half life refit. 5 years? Takes 4 to built 2. Should’ve replaced the old reactor with the same and sold it to Australia. A huge waste of tax payer money that could’ve went into stealth drone, and stealthy ship drone tech. It’s my opinion, and if I’m wrong, then educate me. I’m an old Catapult Vet (V-2) of CVN-73.
@@robertd7073 The Chinese Communist Party IS the worlds most deadly VIRUS, western nations absofuckinglutely need to build and be ready to STOP the CCP with absolute soft/hard/military power (I.e, an actual vaccine) AND such actions need to be carried out YESTERDAY, not tomorrow.
It is way past time that Australia had it's own comprehensive nuclear deterrent. We already have everything we need except the political will. Have we learned nothing from the pandemic and Ukraine?
Great analysis. It’s more information that makes me uneasy about the future. The Pentagon’s procurement , waste and ineptitude is breathtaking. General Eisenhower was so right.
Fun fact: It was the "Military - Industrial - Congressional Complex". Odd how millions of dollars of marketing helped Congress get their name out of that one, eh?
@@peredavi watch Adam Curtis. He explains how the CIA changed conspiracy to conspiracy theory. Epstein’s Lolita express was a conspiracy theory, until it wasn’t.
There are always doubter but rarely do they understand the nature of what the world is. China is not an industrial power no matter how much you try to argue that it is.
Totally agree about building hardened shelters etc on the front line ASAP. At the leadup to WW2 (for America) the US was rushing to build defences on the outlying islands from Hawaii - Wake, Midway, Johnson Atoll (I think that's the right one). The Japanese had already gone against the treaty and fortified and built up their island bases. As a result, apart from WAKE putting up a brilliant and gallant defence (if only General Percival had been able to do similar) once the Japanese gained a foothold, it was all over. Also, from my research I keep getting the impression that most US leaders thought the Japanese were going to start the war around June 1942. That is why the Pearl Harbour Ops room and the island defences hadn't been completed by Dec 1941. That's why I think that this time the US may be planning for 6 years (4 years now), but if China is aware of this, I'm sure they will work to their own timetable. And expect to be surprised! The Chinese are very clever. Look at Korea. They warned the US that they would attack and the US (McArthur) didn't believe it. The Chinese used underwater bridges along the Yalu River to cross, completely surprising the UN forces. Expect the unexpected.
Once again I am impressed by the caliber of thinking expressed in your videos! In particular the thoughts discussed surrounding American procurement programs were by far the most "on target" of any that I've read to date. To me, what we're living through now bears an eerie resemblance to the magical thinking of the 1920's and 1930's as far as the West's handling of rising threats is concerned. To be hopeful and optimistic is one thing, but hope as a strategy is simply compounded foolishness!
Colonial history and on its death bed Ideology 2% of world population can control and build their cities on its wealth with a gun 90: million slaughtered now usa gave the world nukes but Russia saw it coming Jews a history controlled by colonial laws its history to date rammed down our throats hiw many Jewish children suffering from terrible deformities due to thE holocaust Holocaust as perpetrated buy usa in Vietnam and Afghanistan none
Mr. Herzinger is a fantastic source of excellent information. I am glad there are people like him around talking about these subjects. I don't know where else to find this kind of professional frank speak about the realities we face.
Precisely. It seems it’s time to return to fundamentals in defence spending, collectively we in the main democracies and NATO need to realize that other nations are innovating faster and moving ahead of our capabilities. Thankfully there are some such has Mr. Herzinger who won’t simply regurgitate the defense industry pablum. Time to return to using a base of proven technologies and then iterate on improvements to that base as China is doing. The LCS program in particular is one of the worst examples of bloated military contractor incompetence I can think of, although TBH I hadn’t heard of the Boeing submarine nonsense until watching this video. Thanks so much Ward for bringing on such knowledgeable guests and giving the public a rare view into the successes and challenges that are part of the US military program.
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Please read my commentary for another more accurate US General Joseph Stilwell point view
A most impressive guest, Ward! He made many excellent points. Your subject matter has long been a concern of mine, more at times than at other times. We got into the Pacific War when Japan decided it was time to fight us---rather than to wait for our massive ship building program that was part of the "Two-Ocean Navy." While Japan was strictly limited to what the Japanese could build, and we were far less limited, the Chinese are now pumping out the ships and other weapons systems that we, ourselves, cannot and will not build. And, as was noted about some of our Navy's building programs, I often wonder how those programs ever got funded and off the ground??? Great interview. Most impressive on both your part and that of your guest. Go Navy!
One big thing this "analyst" keeps missing... most of the tech Chyna has is built with blueprints from USA, Israel, France. This is a matter of record, Chynese spies have been caught stealing US military secrets on a number of occasions. This doesn't mean the quality is as good and that's why they build in such large numbers. If Chyna achieves victories in any future conflicts it will be by throwing huge amounts of hardware and infantry at their opposition, not necessarily by any tactical or engineering feats. In fact strategists have already done simulations of Chyna invading Taiwan and the losses on the Chynese side were enormous. Also remember that they cannot just bomb everything as they would want to keep some key infrastructure (chip manufacturers) in tact.
Its a system set up with limited conflict and profit in mind. Its not a system set up for a major conflict; in China's case, it could go on for a long time. The longer it goes the harder it will become.
He was spot on with that one. How many cruise missiles or F16's could we have fielded for the cost of the ridiculous Zumwalt program and other programs like it? (I guess they didn't know that destroyers are supposed to be cheap and plentiful!) In the end we will fail because of the politicians that steered billions of dollars into useless corporate Rube-Goldberg projects in order to get votes and make personal profits. Their treachery will bring us down, but few people will understand the real reason why we failed.
That's NOT just an American problem its pretty much an EVERYWHERE problem. I'm Australian but did aerospace engineering in America. We have had this decade long debacle with submarines that's now so bad its a national embarrassment. We also have a horrendous list of government and private sector projects that had monster cost blowouts, delays and a couple of spectacular failures. *And it must be stressed its NOT just a government project problem its terrible in the private sector as well.* If you actually go into it there's huge issues with complex project management. Its poorly understood and horribly executed and it really does bug a lot of engineers because we either get blamed or have to clean up the mess. The reasons are complex but there are some common factors. 1) There are too many voices when it comes to the basic specifications and too many of those voices don't have the skills or experience required to even be in the room, let alone sit at prominent positions at the table. Designing complex systems by committee DOES NOT WORK. I recently saw a great video on the British TSR-2. At one meeting there were 58 people and when the minister in charge told them to fix it there were 61 at the next meeting. 2) There are way too many people with economics backgrounds interfering in projects. They can't shut up and they can't stay out of the road and when they suddenly make decisions (and they do) they are usually disastrous or catastrophic. 3) Human Resources has proven to be one of the WORST management concepts EVER. The idea that someone with no understanding of engineering or how to get a project done can use psychological profiling to determine the best person to do anything is either insane, stupid, ridiculous or all 3.*IF, as they claim* that they are picking the right people and putting them in the right places for the right reasons then how come: - NASA went from from being able to men on the Moon to NOT even being able to get people into space under the leadership of people they put in place; and - Boeing went from building the safest passenger aircraft available to the always going to crash Max-8 under the leadership of people they put in place. And those are just 2 of my favorite clubs to bash HR with. There's lots of others.
@@tonywilson4713 Very well said. I think of WW2, and the ability that America had to turn out multitudes of weapon systems that was mind boggling. The race to the moon was the same. NASA had brilliant engineers and management. Men like Paine, Gilruth, Kraft, and Von Braun. They were top notch engineers who were also very good managers of men, money and time. It is stunning to consider WW2 and the race to the moon, what was accomplished, compared to the clown show we see today.
The MSM espouses the liberal line that everything is just fine. I took notice when the Chinese demonstrated their drone capabilities during the Olympics. 200 relatively small drones flown against an aircraft carrier renders it useless, IMHO...
They said people hated the ROC because it's was a dictatorship but failed to mentioned U.S puppet the mainland communist as a real dictatorship governments 😂🤣
I would agree completely on your last statement, Ward: the enemy is us! We're our best enemy most of the times. I'm a fan and (critic) supporter of the US Navy but I cannot stop getting dazed by their failures!
White folks has no right talking about Taiwan and China. Look at history, few example, south and north Korea, Indian and Pakistan, before north and south Vietam and......... what white folks did and trying to do is same as hundred years ago, divided the same race, and make them to hate or killed each other, so whites can control and benefit from the situations. Stop talking about human rights and other make up issues to make whites feel better. Now is 2022, information pass form one end to the other side of the world less than one second, and people are much more educated. Whites forks still thinking all colors will cook your foods and farm your lands, and you can be superior over other colors and races, what your whites wish for is LONG GONE! Wake up. Go back to you own countries and sort out the problems which are weaken you and your future, better if all whites go back to where you original from and return the lands and counties to the real indigenous people! Then we can set down and talk about human right and other things! Fair?
Respectfully, Blake, Prince of Wales and Repulse were sunk by long range Naval aviation, but, the aircraft were land based Mitsubishi G3M, Nells, and G4M Betty twin engine bombers in both lvl and torpedo roles.
I didn't think any of the Japanese carriers were in Malaya at the time. Force Z was sunk on Dec 10 and the Japanese fleet carriers were still sailing back from Oahu. The British force was supposed to have air cover, but were in a rush to intercept the troop transports. Further, I think these were the first battleships, not in port, to be sunk by air power.
@@ElGrandoCaymano You are spot on. The two British capital ships had no air cover, but even if they had had fighter cover, it would have been Brewster Buffalo fighters... had the Buffalos been there, I wonder if they would have been any help.
and the (otherwise advanced) AA Gunnery radars on PoW were designed in Northern Europe and failed in the heat. They probably wouldn't have saved ForceZ from such an overwhelming number of aircraft but this didn't exactly help.
Just watched this excellent segment tonight. I also saw your segment on the shooting down of the balloon. Both informative and worthwhile. The point of who shoots first is not always the winner, but who has enough to shoot last because they have more to begin with (ships, planes, subs) is valid. Don't carry a 10 round mag when you have a 15 round mag available. Thank you.
This was a really good interview. Anyone hearing it heard the truth and if thought about, why we as the United States need to up our commitment to our military without engaging in troop damaging wars. I'm a Vet and know the damage of 100% disabled. I don't wish this life on any young soldier but the lack of essential sacrifice will topple our way of life.
You need to read Smedley Butler again; it's never been about your way of life: the US military has always been about committing war crimes to make the rich in America richer at the expense of the rights of others.
How would China annexing Taiwan threaten the American way of life? If the US and China wage war, you'd likely be killing hundreds of thousands of young Americans, wounding millions, and in the end it won't benefit ordinary Americans in any way. It'll be Vietnam x 10.
Unfortunately, it's always going to be boots on the ground that win wars/conflict. Our troops are severely lacking in relevant combat training. We spend more time on EO training than actually training for war. It's sad. Sergeants time training is a thing of the past, officers are more concerned about their OER than anything else. The state of the military really kinda sucks.
@@almo3250US intervention more/less helped and harmed some nations, but there is nothing wrong with meddling in Yemen due to the fact that the legitimate Yemeni Government personally asked the US to help them fight the Iranian-backed Houthi Rebels. The US didn't intervene for "Muh oil", they intervened because it was the right thing to do.
I enjoyed Blake's analytical powers, Ward Great discussion, though it left me distinctly uneasy. While I believe there are worse things than being 2nd to China in global influence (with all the incumbent costs and responsibilities), I really can't look forward to the transition. Thanks again, Mooch! Great content.👍👍👍
The US is not second to China on anything. If the US was to go to war with China tomorrow China would collapse in six months and with in a few years would be completely defeated. A lot of lives would be lost on the US side but the defeat would be guaranteed for China.
I just want to say that normally when i see titles like this one, I pass, but because it's you Mooch, I'm all ears. Hearing thoughts on a topic so impactful from a warrior makes it more real & truthful. Respect
Glad to hear other Westerners speaking more openly about the Mainland China-Taiwan situation. I am an American educated in Mainland China and now living in Taiwan. While in China I studied modern Chinese history with mainland students so I have not only an academic view. Sadly to say that most westerners don't know about the events that led up to today's dangerous situation. I wish you had spoken more of the indepth background of China / Taiwan relations. You just touched the tip. Anyway here in Taiwan I wake up every morning hearing low flying Taiwan F-16s. I'll be back to hear more. Take care.
Great video and analysis, Only thing like to point out is that there has been a huge perception in the West that PLA has a conscription model. That is never been the case. Only time China had conscription was during the warlord period under KMT rules. Current PLA recruiting requirements are pretty high, and it isn't easy to join, requiring both physical and written exams.
White folks has no right talking about Taiwan and China. Look at history, few example, south and north Korea, Indian and Pakistan, before north and south Vietam and......... what white folks did and trying to do is same as hundred years ago, divided the same race, and make them to hate or killed each other, so whites can control and benefit from the situations. Stop talking about human rights and other make up issues to make whites feel better. Now is 2022, information pass form one end to the other side of the world less than one second, and people are much more educated. Whites forks still thinking all colors will cook your foods and farm your lands, and you can be superior over other colors and races, what your whites wish for is LONG GONE! Wake up. Go back to you own countries and sort out the problems which are weaken you and your future, better if all whites go back to where you original from and return the lands and counties to the real indigenous people! Then we can set down and talk about human right and other things! Fair?
China has compulsory military service which certainly requires conscription, but it was never practiced since PLA never had trouble with volunteers. In fact there are too many volunteers. If someday PLA decided to follow the constitution and do compulsory military service and fully arms it, China will end up with an army that is half of all USA population with high tech gears (we are looking at at least 4000 5th gen fighters and 40+ supercarriers and many more; arming all of them to the teeth will be a headache as well). I'm not sure what Chinese will think about that, but I'm pretty sure the world will be very concerned.
About military budgets. You may want to review Perun's video on comparing different countries military budgets and who gets the most bang for the buck. Pogo is back.
Kaohsiung is a strategic ocean shipping hub for Asia. Many ports in Asia like Manila can’t accommodate the super container ships. I managed a USG manufacturing operation in Manila and all of our incoming and outgoing containerized ocean freight would be transferred ship-to-ship in Kaohsiung.
Mr Mooch. I want to thank you for your videos / interviews with experts that knows their stuff, like Blake Herzinger and Dr Justin Bronk. It's such a strong contrast to what media is airing. I've been following Dr Bronk's facts and reflections on the Ukraine air war with great interest. These are facts that is hard to come by anywhere else. Great job!
Thank you for the discussion. I am a long time Taiwan resident. This will not play out forever, as much as I wish it would. Eyes and ears open to things as they develop. Again, thank you for the discussion.
I retired from a major aerospace company a few years back. I held a Secret clearance. I was always amazed and disheartened by the number of engineers that worked there who held top secret clearances and who spoke fluent chinese.
@@g8way2k1 these people appeared to be Chinese nationals... Speaking fluent English was the only thing they didn't excel at. Not natural born Americans for damned sure. Perhaps there was more going on than I could safely contemplate, but it bothered me to experience them right next to a closed space.
Truman gave Chiang full support, including the ship crossings to then Formosa. Truman also acknowledged he was dealing with a gangster. Basically the US denied China the spoils of victory, and ever since have done everything to prevent reconciliation between China and Taiwan, and those days are numbered.
This was one of the best videos I have ever watched. Not because it reinforced my preconcieved notions, but because it was a brilliant analysis led with brilliant questions. I also like that we address that how we view a country NOW is not how thoughtful minds thought THEN, and that there are unintended consequences, now that we chose to overlook (or never recognized) in the past. Yes, Chiang Kai-Shek was a dictator, but that image is somewhat sanitized now because of the advances of his successors, especially post 2000 NOT his own works. NOW we (and for that matter, so do PRC oligarchs) view Taiwan as this beautiful resort isle with amazing cuisine and an amazing chip company, but originally it very much was run by a dictator who was untenable to support. I love how Ward asked if Xi learned from the world response to the invasion of Ukraine. I love how Blake addressed the US procurement process! I love how you both discussed the movement of manpower, gas, machinery and ammo, the prep for the military side AND the prep for the domestic front. As an Asian, it hit me particularly about the effect of the PRC one child law, and sending that only child off to war, perhaps never to return and fulfill the familial blood line. We also should remember that in MANY Asian families, the children are expected to care for their parents in their old age. If we think the Chinese are mad because of lockdowns, I assure you that parents of military age (mostly men) are going to be mad if they look at a future where their bloodline will end and where they have no security in their old age. And remember that those parents of military aged children are facing and economy has been ravaged by the real estate rip offs and the finance industry that was devastated because of the real estate rip off. One thing that military people don't mention, but finance people know is that there is a TON of PRC directly and Chineae oligarch money invested in Taiwan. Taiwan is one of the Chicom oligargh "second homes" of the rich and famous set. And that there is a lot of Taiwan money invested in the Shenzen, Hong Kong (Hang Seng) and especially the Shanghai stock exchanges. The US is China's #1 business partner. Will China risk economic sanctions by the whole world as Russia faced, especially after their real estate and banking system being in shambles? Or is shinese manufactruing and sales of consumer goods to the west and to rapidly developing nations a way that it can stabilize itself after the banking collapse? I would be interested in your opinion of non-kinetic military advantages and disadvantages each side has, especially AI and cyber. China has some of the very best cyber security in the entire world. I'm sure ours is top notch but We keep ours relatively secret. Our Military, including the Navy is using Palantir to analyze Chinese movement and to war game. Palantir even has a promotional video about a scenario in the Taiwan Straits. We've seen the success of Palantir in Ukraine, how do you guys view it in re: China. _____________________________________________ I absolutely do view China as an adversary and view an invasion as possible, but you two really point out that this is a complicated issue, not just a black and white, yes or no issue that is facing Xi.
Back in the day there used to be a newspaper cartoon titled "Pogo". It featured a bunch of animal characters that lived in a swamp. One of the more memorable lines from that was, "We have met the enemy and he is us". Unfortunately there is a lot of truth in that on a variety of different levels.
The willingness of our leadership in the West to keep us in the world of the great chocolate malt makes our policy too little and too late for efficient deterance. Our desire to live in a fantasy land makes us the enemy he is us. China has not hesitated to murder its own people by the millions. What would it do to us? Don Hansen
Admiral Philip Davidson was my first CO on USS GETTYSBURG CG-64 If I could pick a secretary of the navy it would be him. Great CO and he was not a pushover when he made flag.
We actually had quite a lot of airpower in Singapore, the main problem was that we greatly underestimated the Japanese, as did the Americans. It was just as well that our carrier ran aground before reaching Singapore, as the Navy had no idea how to operate carriers. The fate of Courageous in 1939 and Glorious in 1940 bear witness to that. Chennault sent info on the Zero and how to deal with it to Britain, but it never reached the squadrons. Very few Zeros were used in the attack on Malaya as they had to fly from airfields near Saigon, but the similar but less well armed Oscar was used in large numbers. The quality of our troops and their commanders left a lot to be desired, so airfields were soon overrun. Morale was shattered by the first defeats.
Actually the Singapore Strategy was fundamentally and fatally flawed to begin with. Chief of Army Lt Gen John Lavarack advised Australian government such in the early 30's, causing much antagonism. His warnings were prescient, but not acted on. Lawrence Wackett, head of CAC (Commonwealth Aircraft Corporation) wanted to build an air superiority fighter that the country badly needed, and to get it into service by 41-42 - but couldn't get the funding.
@@ivantheteribul The troops usually fled long before the Japs arrived, leaving a lot of fighters on the airfield to be captured by the Japs. Similar incidents occurred in France in 1940. The Buffalo, although not the best fighter around, was better than it's usually given credit for and about as good as the Oscar. The Hurricane IIA well flown could give the Zero a run for its money provided you didn't try to dogfight. I recommend a book called "Hurricane Over the Jungle" by a Malaya campaign Hurricane pilot, published about 40 years ago.
A little much to say the Royal Navy "had no idea how to operate carriers", this would be the same Navy that dealt the crippling blow to Bismarck, largest capital ship in the world, with naval aviation.
@@Edax_Royeaux Yes, the same Navy that lost HMS Courageous in October1939 after sending it without escorts to hunt for subs, and the same navy that lost HMS Glorious in the Norway fiasco, June 1940 after crowding the decks with fighters so no bombers could take off to defend it from Scharnhorst!
Wow Blake sure knows his onions as we say here in the UK. To be honest I don't normally watch these sort of analysing programs very much but I was riveted right to the Rey end on this one. This should b a very big wake up call o the US an the rest of the free world for those who are ignorant of what's going on with China internally ( like me lol ) thanks Ward and Blake
Mooch, having resided here in Taiwan since 1988 and seeing first hand how well this country has developed their infrastructure, I can't imagine this beautiful island being destroyed by warfare. With the KMT gradually losing support and the DPP's pro independence stance, there is very little chance of this country accepting China's authoritarian rule. Instead of worrying about what catastrophe awaits us here, I can't help thinking about those guys on the flight decks of the carriers in our neighborhood and how pumped up they will be when they hear the general quarters announcement followed by, this is not a drill! I was in VF 74 in '81 in the Gulf of Sidra
It’s disgusting and people should be in jail, if not shot/hanged for it. It’s all a racket and our military will pay for it both in wasted dollars and in blood.
@@andrews2990 Hold on Congress decides the budget not the military. And Congress wanted these cuts because there was no conflict that would require these programs.
The 'Pacing Threat'. I agree, Gross defense budget alone is far from a complete picture. Value for dollar spent is very important. China won't fight in isolation. Like BRICS nations and OPEC+ are helping Russia endure sanctions. So will they support China. Great show, looking forward to your 'Enemy Within' episode.
I think when push comes to shove, China won't have many allies. Maybe Russia since they're already getting sanctioned to hell anyways and need the trade.
Another excellent episode - and so timely, Ward. Thanks very much. I agree entirely with Blake Herzinger. Rotation doesn't solve anything, and yes, boosting anti-missile defence is essential. Think back to the dynamic in NATO during the Cold War (where I was based as a young fighter pilot in the UK). We were outnumbered by several orders of magnitude, in tanks, aircraft and troops. In response, we worked smart, beefing up our capabilities and capacity to defend and take the fight to the Soviet forces if they invaded - and to deter them from attacking in the first place. Have we forgotten those lessons? If so, we're in deep trouble.
There was air cover available for force Z - it wasn't great - No 453 Sqd RAF was assigned for fleet defence. What failed was proper coordination with Force z. A number of Buffalos were eventually scrambled to provide support, after the Japanese air attack had begun. They arrived too late. The "Drachininfel" youtube channel has done an excellent video on the destruction of Force z.
The Brewster Buffalo does not constitute "Air Support". Cannon fodder maybe, but not air support. No offense to the poor pilots who were forced to fly them.
The average age of a person in the Communist Party is 70 years old. There are about 5.6 million Communists that are 25 years old or younger. It is not the Chinese military. It's the Chinese party military. Troops swear an oath to the Communist Party.
@@assertivekarma1909 but still russia population are already shrinking in years now, and their demographic imbalance when woman are more than man, so they're pretty much lacking of young man adult but still they invaded ukrainr anyway
@@assertivekarma1909 and also china is still have 1,4 Billion people, that pretty much four time the number population of US. With that number they could easily recruit 1 million volunteers without any concription or drafting
I just discovered this brief. And as always, it's fabulous Ward. TY 👌 Time stamp 9:48.. Concerning missles and accuracy. Almost an edited quote from page xx of the Prologue in Hornfischer's NEPTUNE'S INFERNO. = "Victory always tended to fly with the first effective salvo." As graphically display at the beginning and end of Master and Commander, Lucky Jack figured it out PDQ.
Ward, your historical synopsis of Taiwan's status is largely untrue. The only support we withheld from the 'Peanut' was armed intervention, and shut off the financial/military aid, only after the civil war was already lost in late 1948.
Chiang Kai Shek said Taiwan was a part of China. He was only interested in overthrowing the communists and returning to power on the mainland not Taiwan independence.
The US did intervene unofficially in Ukraine. Weapons, "advisors", indirect air support along with sanctions. Also, China has fought the US before "Korean War" to a stalemate. We as the US I believe has chosen to maintain security in Europe over maintaining superiority in the pacific. While there were some missteps by Russia in Ukraine, they have made significant gains in terms of energy. Great commentary by two outstanding gentlemen. I was stationed at Kadena for 3 years, so this video resonated with me.
The Chinese on their own did not fight the US to a stalemate in Korea. It was the fear of the USSR coming in with nuclear weapons if the US beat the Chinese back into China
@@Cromius771 true the USSR played a factor but all the major battles were between a technological superior US vs China. Also the US wasn’t alone either. There was a coalition of countries that assisted the US. Some would argue the Korean War was WW3 just without nukes.
@@Cromius771 Where do you get this story? As a matter of fact MacArthur wanted to drop atomic bombs on China but Truman held him back. MacArthur didn’t seem the least bit concerned about the Soviets.
@@Bk6346 MacArthur is also a general who helped defeat the Japanese and saw how the power of atomic weapons brought the Japanese to heel. It was a new age with a older generation still at the helm. MacArthur never would have been given permission to use those nuclear weapons due to the domino effect it would spill.
Stalin once said that "Quantity has a quality all its own". Military and naval kit produced in times of peace tends to be built to last, because the money to replace it when ite wears out may be hard to get. When the shooting starts, it's going to "wear out" a hell of a lot faster, needing to be replaced quickly and in quantity. The brass are then going to be busy with matters other than specification and budgeting. (Look at the history of the UK Ministry of Aircraft Production.)
Aircraft production was much simpler in WWII. Production lead times now are measured in years compared to weeks. We could never produce airframes, ships or tanks in an adequate rate today. Plus, as we give Ukraine all our Javelins, we're bringing our own tactical missile resouces below acceptable levels. Plus all the hardware left behind in Afghanistan! Current US Administration is beyond incompetent!
The Prince of Wales and Repulse were sunk by land based aviation, not carried based. G3M's (Nells) and G4M (Bettys) were Japanese land based bombers that were armed with torpedoes.
@@brentvfreiberger exactly. The loss of these two capital ships was another indication of the incompetency of the British military in WW2. If not for the US the British would have been using translation books while they learned German.
@@stevecam724 true that the United States was the essential ally. But that was no accident. The USA only entered the European war courtesy of the Germans and the Italians due to their declarations of war. On December 8 Roosevelt only sought a declaration of war on Japan. Roosevelt certainly favored American action against Germany but without the German declaration he could never have gotten Congress on board.
One big difference between the war in Ukraine and a potential war in Taiwan is that, contrary to Russia, China is importing a lot of its food and most of its oil. The U.S. could easily choke these imports far away from China's reach. I'd be interested in an expert's opinion about this.
Great comparison of the US plan vs the Singapore strategy. It's pretty easy to see when a power says something about deploying forces when hostilities begin vs actually forward deploying those defenses.
Nope it wasn't a great comparison! One happened in vastly different circumstances and was a disaster, the other hasn't happened yet, if at all. And while Blake makes, some, good points he is speculating from a very narrow perspective. As was said about the success or failure of Democracy - It's too soon to say. (I'm pretty sure I'm messing up that quote, but the point stands.
@@djd8305 Ooookay. The comparison is more stripped down than a pure historical analysis. It is one that pits the experience of planning a wartime deployment vs having ready forces on hand. History has an example of how plans fall apart and turn into token gestures that lead to disaster. We have a solid counter example of the US' NATO commitment throughout the Cold War, boots on the ground and plans/material for substantial follow on forces, which worked. With those two examples we see that these can guide possible decisions with regard to the US' posture in Asia.
@@PrimarchX Ahh, apologies for 'stamping' on ya with my big boots:) Over tha past few days I've seen too many, ahem, dumb comments, which display no thinking and lots of prejudices. Yep, history sure does suggest that sitting back and watching/waiting doesn't work. It's that Teddy Roosevelt thing, with going and carrying and sticks ....
@@djd8305 No problem. What happens with China and Taiwan is a defining issue for our future. There are lots of perspectives but no one really knows what the right answer will be. Strength, resolve and unity have been good remedies in the past, so to me that's the best course to steer in uncertain waters.
@@PrimarchX I fully agree. Russia, for decades, has been the easy bogeyman. China, because it hasn't been the bad guy, and has been the supplier of cheap 'good times' has in certain ways been under the radar. But China is far more different to the Western World than Russia. Chinese/Asian peoples/regimes think differently than Westerners. And it is too easy to equate "Western" with American and dismiss fears of Chinese aggression, as perhaps Europeans do. There's a reason that dystopian science fiction - eg. Blade Runner - sees the future populated by 'Asian' people and 'Westerners' as, well, different. It's about population growth, unity of purpose, a single-mindedness of purpose and central control. Ask India, African countries etc. about how determined China is to secure resources. One of Hitler's central aims was to gain territory for an expanding population. China may have more land, but scarce resources. It may only want small territorial gains - Taiwan, Tibet.... but gaining them challenges regional and international players. Bullies often need bullies to quieten them.
Blake is is a star guest for this show. Great observations, not only on the order of battle, but also the societal issues facing China (ending entire bloodlines in a battle due to the 1 child years), and many other areas. I also agree that if China takes this shot and misses, it spells the end of the CCCP. Thanks for a great discussion.
One thing that a lot of civilians forget: Ground bases cannot move, but Naval forces can. But in the modern context, even Naval forces can be fairly quickly re-located and targeted. Also, China is building sillouette targets of US aircraft carriers and other surface combatants in their vast deserts - and USING them to test all types weapons systems, but especially ballistic and hypersonic systems.
@@johnbrinsmead3316 China's 10x speed of sound wu-14 missile entered service in 2014, far earlier than Russia, the known hypersonic missiles that have been equipped are DF-17, CJ-100, XK2, YJ21, etc, about 5 to 6 types, this year in Zhuhai publicly displayed the air-launched version of YJ21 and began exporting it, China's weapons manufacturing has actually been done independently since 1990, so It was only in 2004 that we had a large wind tunnel with 7 times the speed of sound, much higher than the United States. No country would take its most advanced weapons and share them, and we have started to export the YJ21, and we hope to popularise him to all countries that need to fight against aircraft carriers.
Too bad though that the discussion only mentioned based nearby like in Okinawa. Is why the US has redeployed and reconstituted the types of forces on far off but relevant bases like Guam. China could try to wipe out nearby bases but would find it much more difficult to wipe out bases like in Guam. Not only would targeting be more difficult but the distance would mean that any attack would likely be detected with time to make decisions long before the missiles arrive. Unless hypersonics were launched from very nearby like submarines, I doubt anything launched from elsewhere would have much chance of success.
Many thanks Ward and Blake, well said and presented. I was the Commander of Marine Forces Pacific in 2008 and it was pretty obvious then where the PRC was going. There was very little time in Washington for the views of Service Components or even PACOM at the time. The so called "pivot" was in name only and Allies and the PRC saw that clearly. Our current problem is also one of "too little, too late", I regret to say...... I hope the world doesn't pay a terrible price for it.
The key to the defense of Taiwan is to stop the Chicoms at sea. An invasion would require a massive amount of sea-borne troops and the supplies required to support them. Sinking those vessels would stop the invasion cold. Taiwan needs to focus on the acquisition of anti-ship missiles and submarines.
Taiwan has the capability to build both, however it would require some technology transfer. I don’t think the current US congress would approve that though
@@stingray427man Taiwan already possesses US-made Harpoon missiles. More could be acquired. Very high quality diesel subs can be acquired from Germany.
@@IMDunn-oy9cd sub acquisition would probably require years to obtain however I agree Taiwan should be working towards both as long term Insurance. They are fully capable of building quality military equipment. They have some of the best chip manufacturing technology
The question becomes, what happens in 10 of 15 years when these ships, aircraft & other high tech weapon systems need major maintenance cycles. Being able to build & field a weapon system is only a fraction of the cost & expertise required to keep these systems relevant; see the Soviet/Russian Navy. Another TH-camr (Aaron Amick @ Sub Brief) mentioned that the quietest a submarine will ever be is right after it's put in service. Will China just keep dropping new hulls in the water rather than trying to do life extensions? Does this enter into the PRC timeline?
The Chinese procurement process is more corrupt than the U.S. system. China last stress tested its military in Vietnam and lost. Its officers gain rank through bribes. China could wind up like Russia in Ukraine by believing its own hype.
This is a very good point - the majority of the cost comes from the Maintenace, setting aside facilities for dry docking, etc. The surge of ship building is possible because they didn't have to have facilities and funds being funneled into preserving their current fleet like the US
The problem with the U.S. military is that it currently is set up to generate profit for American corporations rather than build the most capable force. Of course, the U.S. military does get lucky at times and build some quite capable hardware, but then as was stated in the video, a lot of the expenditures and theoretical projects come to naught. We waste so much money with our military currently. I am afraid that when another real war comes the U.S. is going to find that it isn't nearly as well prepared as our budget would indicate that we are. A lot of that money - it is in the pockets of company shareholders and the rich.
If US is concerned about Taiwan people, US should support peaceful unification. And two sides should start negotiation for unification now. But it is never US interests to see peaceful unification. What can you expect from a country started around 50 wars in the past 30 years, killed millions and caused 50 million refugees?
After seeing Russia’s military perform so poorly in Ukraine I can’t help but wonder about China’s quality of training and level of corruption and how that might effect their performance.
If there is a relevant lesson for Taiwan in the Ukraine war it is that smart weapons in huge numbers can raise the cost of invasion so high as to make it prohibitive. If Taiwan is smart they should start now building 10,000 50-kilometer anti-ship missiles and 10,000 more 15-kilometer anti-ship missiles and as many anti-aircraft weapons as China has planes + helicopters. It will cost many $ billions but will make invasion an impossibility. Worth every penny and would avoid the direct conflict between the US and China that would be catastrophic for the whole world.
Unlike Ukraine, Taiwan is an island surrounded by ocean. China can starve Taiwan out through blockade without a fight. To break the blockade though, U.S. and its Allies will be facing direct confrontation with Chinese forces.
@@nanjiang1953 you raise the excellent point that Taiwan can remain independent only by achieving self-sufficiency in many dimensions. With a strong anti-ship defense Taiwan can break a naval blockade though it would then be in a shooting war with China. At that point one has to ask what other outcome is possible but the maximum possible destruction of Taiwan. And before the fact what could China gain by doing such a thing? Ruling ruins is pointless. Only Russia seems to think otherwise.
Notice the fact: Taiwan is part of China and should go back home. Why do you expect there is a war between Taiwan of China and Mainland China? They are in ONE country.
The Germans lost the war for many reasons, one major reason was the focus on "dream weapons" that had no meaningful impact on the war. The US builds dream weapons all the time, but if we need to use them in a shooting war, the dream weapon will soon turn into a nightmare. It does seem that the US Navy faces many challenges, workforce training and motivation being first and foremost, the Seawolf class boat driving into the ground is one of a few public examples. Today's weapons systems are quite complex and the quality of the war fighters education the ability to understand and employ has dropped. And also strategy, many problems with the latest classes of ships, as mentioned at the close.
That's a spurious comparison. Germany was resource poor, and led by true mad men. And, where is your evidence that "the ability to understand and employ has dropped."?
@@djd8305 I would not classify my comments as Spurious at all. Tiger, Panther, Ferdinan, ME262, V1, V2, No advanced night fighter development, they flew the 110 to the end...In short, never enough of these advanced systems on the battlefield, Look at the host of tanks they built, I have a background in DOD-based manufacturing, It's a clear example of not having enough resources spread way too thin. Time to build plan to fighting vehicle, teething the list goes on. Jet Blue flies 1 airframe, and United has multiple, talk to those guys it's hard to make a profit managing a diverse fleet. At JB staffing 1 plane, crews are interchangeable. And to reply to the 2nd part of your comment, I have a hands-on background in the industry...
@@Gridlocked Sorry I used the term in reference to the precise nature of the systems. Maintaining USAF assets and others under combat conditions in the pacific will become challenging. Cool toys but if the shooting starts, will the systems hold up. Due to the limited base options, these will become targets that can be concentrated on for strikes. Same holds true for the SSN Fleet, resupply will have to be done outside the combat operations area. Added transit time. The nature of systems today creates a very narrow footprint for operations. Any conflict with China will be the most serious operational challenge that the US has faced since 1945.
All the best for the new year. Really enjoy the military hardware and ops content, will stay with Spengler for China analysis. Re: Formosa, a friend of my dad did recon aviation during the Chinese civil war. Each battle he observed ended with the KMT abandoning their weapons to the Communists. Decades later, sure glad my son and most of his friends are out and not target practice for expanding Chinese assets that seem to understand Mahan better than we do
@@WALTERBROADDUS one side pulls a trigger. Not hard really. Xi has already made it clear he is more interested in governmental stability than economic. And China has long been weaponizing America's unwillingness to shake up the economic boat against us. At some point, you have to be willing to rip off the bandaid, unless you plan to start learning Mandarin.
@@WALTERBROADDUS You never asked me a question numbnuts. You asked another person how a war between two trade partners starts. I answered. Its not fucking hard. The rest of your "mArCHinG oN BeiJinG!!11!" fucktardistry is irrelevant. One side shoots, you're now at war. That's all it takes.
@@cjohnson3836 actually I did. What is the end game here? Once the chess moves begin. What do you expect the Chinese to counter with? If you could not take out the Taliban, what makes you think you're going to be able to defeat the people's Liberation Army and a billion people Plus? Why does making war or one of our largest trading partners make any lick of sense?
Excellent video again sir - on an important subject. Keep up the great work! The problem with focusing on quantity though is just leading us down a path of mutual escalation where there's not gonna be a winner. It was one thing to play this game with the Russians, whose economy we presumed would at some point or another run out of steam and leave us as the undisputed master superpower. But with the Chinese we can't be operating under the same calculus. Its just going to go on and on - greater and greater numbers. Additionally, this feels reactionary as well - and that's not a position the US and our military should be operating from. We don't want the threat of conflict over Taiwan to be what propagates an out of control snowball of conventional forces build-up/proliferation of the US and China, never mind it also having the potential to lead to greater nuclear proliferation as well. Also, the idea that the American public would accept for any significant length of time a conflict over the defense of Taiwan that factors the significant loss of life of US military personnel is I think very unrealistic. If the Chinese are willing to lay it all on the line to take Taiwan, expecting the American public to do the same is really unimaginable. And none of this is saying that its ok for China to do this, nor that the US should simply stand by and allow China free reign - but gearing up for a *major* war with China over Taiwan just seems crazy. There has to be another angle. And being cynical as well, I think the defense industry certainly loves things like that prospect - but I think concerning as well though is the fact that top American service personnel are very seriously considering the prospects of such a war and of how to win such a war. The guest just referenced this as an arms race, and we just cannot go down that road again. Ok - digressing real quick I want to also thank the guest for calling attention to the problems the defense industry has had with devoting valuable time and resources to projects that were complete wastes for various reasons (I've commented previously on the major issue with the littoral combat ship fleet debacle that we're currently still in the middle of) and that took money/resources away from other legitimate programs and/or from the acquisition of supplies etc that all branches of the military desperately could have utilized.
You, like most people unfortunately here forgot the important caveat, USA isn't the sole defender of democracy in the world, just the biggest. USA has plenty of allies in the Pacific with modern forces who are ramping up their own military spending. You really think south east Asian countries in the pacific are sticking their heads in the sand now?😂 Let alone Britain's renewed interest, and several pacific rim countries including Australia . Chinas own expansionist policy includes much of the pacific rim , Taiwan is just one of MANY.
@@snapdragon9300 China doesn’t have any expansionist views. China considers Taiwan a part of their territory. You forget Chiang Kai Shek and the Chinese Civil War. Taiwan has never declared independence or held a referendum for independence. It’s status is still a gray area.
@@Bk6346 “China doesn’t have any expansionist views.” China might not, but the acquisition of certain border 'territories' by the CCP and those artificial islands in the West Philippine Sea says that the CCP does. “China considers Taiwan a part of their territory.” The CCP has never held the island of Formosa so has no legal claim to it, and to be frank most of us Americans do not care if the CCP considers Taiwan to be a part of their territory. As long as Taiwan does not consider itself as a territory of the CCP we will support that viewpoint, and unlike the other territorial acquisitions that the CCP has made we have certain agreements with Taiwan. How far we go with this support probably depends on how far the CCP goes to take control of Taiwan. “You forget Chiang Kai Shek and the Chinese Civil War.” Again, it’s not about forgetting, it’s about not caring. The CCP tried to remove ROC from Formosa and failed, so as far as we care the Chinese Civil War is over. The CCW created 2 independent nations in 1949, the PRC which is now the CCP and the ROC or Taiwan as we know it. “Taiwan has never declared independence or held a referendum for independence.” Every time Taiwan would talk about doing this the CCP would pull a hissy-fit, and for a time the world was more interested in making money off of China than supporting Taiwan, so it was just easier to not do anything. Unfortunately for the CCP it’s proving more and more to be less the benevolent business partner, and more the authoritarian asswipe that it is. Personally I think it’s time for Taiwan to make the change and tell the CCP to GFY, but that is easy for me to say being I’m here in the states.
@@jdeuraud1096 Sounds like self serving logic. Taiwan was a part of China during the Qing Dynasty. Chiang Kai Shek was a political refugee from the mainland and he ruled Taiwan from 1949 till his death in 1975. He wasn’t interested in Taiwan independence but only to overthrow the communists and return to power on the mainland. Even to this day the KMT says that Taiwan is a part of China but that China is the ROC and not the PRC. You need to read up on your history.
I like what Ward said, "the enemy is us" in the end of the show, you have made very clear in the beginning that the war between PRC and ROC (Taiwan) is an unfinished civil war just like civil war happened in the US history, it is a pure internal matter. Taiwan is not formally recognized as a sovereign country by UN, even US doesn't recognize Taiwan as country, so Taiwan is not like Ukraine, If China taking on Taiwan by force, It won't have much support from UN members in legal term. If US wants fight a war with China in China's door step, US has no chance to win that war as many US General already pointed out. If China invades Taiwan tomorrow, there will be no major military movement in day time, everything pretty much there. Just like in Aug 4 military drill surrounding Taiwan island, no major military deployments were observed, all the missiles, artillery launched from different part of the coasts.
The only problem here is that from a strictly military viewpoint could China afford to risk US/Japanese intervention in a Taiwan prepperatory attack by just attacking Taiwan in a surprise attack while leaving the US/Japan all their capabilities to respond with overwhelming force? Neither the US nor Japan would wait around for a UN resolution to intervene and both countries could move their naval assets (minus attack submarines) out beyond the first island chain and dispurse their aircraft to smaller alternate airfields. China would be taking a huge risk not trying to get in the first blow against the US and Japan, which in turn would force the issue because US and Japanese officials would claim they are defending themselves as much as they would be defending Taiwan. The American people wouldn't care if Taiwan was recognized by the US before the war. It would only matter that American lives were lost in a sneak attack and somebody needs to pay.
@@TheLAGopher The USA didn’t even intervene in Ukraine which is a sovereign country. China and Taiwan are still in a civil war. China has now a large enough navy, nuclear arsenal, anti-ship missiles, chemical and biological weapons to make the USA and Japan think twice in to entering into a war.
Finally somebody that actually knows what is happening in SEA, being as I live in SEA I thought this was very good as I see everyday just how toothless the US would be in the area....if China invaded Taiwan it would take them a matter of hours to negate Okinawa and that is just a fact...the only service I see actually planning to fight in SEA is the USMC and honestly if it happens that will be too little to late
@@dinte215 It was never returned because China was not part of the Unconditional Surrender Armistice Agreement and at the time of the surrender the KMT was the legitimate and recognized government of China.
@@purebloodstevetungate5418 are you suggesting the taiwan government is illegal? It gives chinese government more right to claim taiwan as China is the only country that claim to own taiwan and i don’t see any country will fight a war with China to occupy taiwan.
Some very good points being discussed in this episode. I do however think that if China goes for an all out war they will face the same issue Russia is facing in Ukraine. Issues like logistics, leadership, strategy, etc. The first attempt at a strike may go well but when the shit hits the fan will they be able to keep their composure? I am not to sure about that.
Their logistics issues will be much less than our own given the distances involved, not to mention 100 years of procurement ineptitude on our part. Always, always developing the wrong weapons for the war in front of us.
Logistics is one area that China is well ahead of the US, especially in the Westpac area. They are the worlds largest manufacturing power, they have all the infrastructure in place they need to move material from their industrial heartland to their coastal ports, and onto ships for export throughout the world.
In your recap of the history of Taiwan, I believe you left out one important detail -- prior to and during WWII Formosa (Taiwan) was a possession of Imperial Japan. It had not been under Chinese control (although its people, language and culture were Chinese) for some time.
Korea was occupied by Japan from 1910-1945. It was supposed to become an independent country but was split up into the North and South by the USA and the Soviet Union after the war. Japan also occupied Sakhalin Island from 1905-1945. Taiwan was returned to the government of China after the Japanese surrendered in 1945.
Thank You Blake! That was a very informative brief. Think we need to replace Mark Milley with Blake but seeing how that isn’t a option. I would settle for Admiral Richards, who’s comments just yesterday could be a continuation of this topic Wade. Thanks again love your channel.
Ok, so Blake's analysis was very concise, very informative, what I was waiting for, and did not hear ( as a retired Recon Marine), was the fact that China has no battle experience, they, as well as their hardware are untested, one thing I can tell you from personal experience is that the US Military is very effective at destroying an enemies command and control in the opening days of hostilities.
Is the US planning on invading or bombing China? Attacking another nuclear power like China or Russia is another ballgame. Especially Russia with their 6,000 nukes and other weapons of mass destruction such as chemical and biological.
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Feels like our own military industrial complex is beginning to hobble us.
My American pride compels me to shrug it off and rest on the, “but our stuff and people are better”. This in my view is a dangerous hubris in these changing times.
one thing i notice about this video is the framing of taiwan as a xi personal pet project. It really isn't its a national endevour since the KMT retreat to taiwan that all chinese considers essential. An independent taiwan means it has the authority to host an american base 100 miles off the shore of china. Ask any chinese, even the ones over seas, and they will tell you the samething. taiwan was a long term project for the chinese before xi.. and it will remain one after xi is out of the office. The chinese will reunify with taiwan at its time of its own choosing. not at the speculation of u.s or any foreign media.
@Apsoy Pike china graduates 600k stem degrees a year. us graduates 60k. That GAP is now a chasm. Only way for u.s to compete with china is to actually fix its domestic issues like education, heatlhcare and inequality. There won't be any contest once chinese GDP is 2-3x that of the u.s
@@levelazn China just has way more people in general though. The US has 332,403,650. China has 1.426 billion. 60k is still way too low though. The US should have around a quarter of China's be keeping up proportionately. Ideally more. You're never going to see parity though.
American stuff were better in the 1990s, the time when they were designed. To think they'll still be better in 2025 against Chinese stuff designed in the 2020s is not just hurbis, its suicide. Case in point, each Type 055 has 48x 850mm by 9m deep VLS cell that can carry hypersonic missiles, a single Chinese CSG with 2x 055 and 2x 052D has 160 hypersonic tubes, meanwhile Mk-41 on Burkes are too small to fit any of USN's future hypersonic rounds.
@Apsoy Pike A few points about air power:
- YF-22 first flight was 1990, it was designed in the late 80s against 80s Soviet threat profile, "modernization" contract was only awarded last year running until 2031.
- X-35 first flight was 2000, it was designed in late 90s against the same threat profile as LCS and Ford class, i.e. Iran, without knowledge of J-20, and we all know the problems it has.
- J-20 first flight was 2011, it was designed in the late 2000s singularly against F-22 and F-35, with full knowledge of, and depending on what you believe, full inside intellgence on both, and it has been constantly upgraded twice over the 2010s, now with a 2-seater drone command version.
It's the same as Burkes vs Type 055/052D, US is the side with quantity vs fewer but better Chinese stuff, and even that's about to end with new Chinese fighter plants 1.5x larger than USAF Plant 4.
Admiral Charles Richard didn't just say what he did for nothing, the fact that most American immediately think he just want more funding tells you just out of touch American public is from military realities.
I read a book awhile ago that included quite a bit on the Repulse and Prince of Wales. A reporter was on board listening to the chatter of the sailors. They repeatedly remarked to the effect that the Japanese were not a real threat. These same men were soon struggling against fire and water as both ships were sunk by the Japanese forces that were "not very good."
I have always thought that you should approach a fight with the assumption the other guy is at least as strong as you are until they prove otherwise.
Likely just bravado. Talking up the enemy is a bad idea as it damages morale. You can lose a war that way before the fighting has begun.
@@tcm81
G'day,
Not "Bravado"...
Simple White Supremacist British Imperial Racism.
Multiplied by grandiose delusions of Glory, nurtured on stories of "The Empire on which the Sun never set..." ; and fantasies involving Japanese Military personnel all being both short-sighted and mentally retarded, while the Japanese Aircraft were all made of Rice-Paper and Bamboo - and they flew slowly going backwards, to keep the dust out of the Pilots' Eyes...
Instead, the Prince of Wales & the Repulse relied on Vickers bloody VILDEBEASTES and Brewster Buffaloes to keep the Bettys and Zeroes away.
The Leadership of the A.B.D.A Forces in the Pacific (Australian, British, Dutch & AmeriKan...) was bedevilled by Communication Failure, Imagination Failure, Intelligence Failure, Logistical Failure, Strategic Incompetance and an overweaning reliance on the deep Theological conviction that God was a White English Man, and thus...,
"Gott Mit UNS...!" ;
and how very funny, that the squinty-eyed little Yellow Fellows would have the temerity to try to stand up to their EuroPeon BETTERS....
When Japan bombed Hawaii, Singapore, Hong Kong and invaded Malaya and the Phillipines all on 7 December 1941, ABDA Command collectively shit itself.
In February '42, when Darwin was bombed, the RAAF was possessed of ONE Monoplane Fighter with a retractable Undercarraige and a closed Canopy, a Mk-1 Hawker Hurricane...; it had no Guns though, and it was based at Point Cook in Melbourne, diametrically across the continent from Darwin - where it was only ever flown to stage Aerobatic Displays at Recruiting Events to entice enlistment in the RAAF's Empire Aircrew Training Scheme and being fed as Replacements into the RAF's War with Germany & Italy...
Happily enough, from my viewpoint (30° S., 151° E...), Japan never had any intentions or plans to invade or occupy Oz - let alone any ships, planes, tanks, men, fuel, food, weapons, ammunition, trucks or strategic reserves required to launch and sustain an Invasion.
Therefore, the Japanese Bicycle Brigades never did land at Darwin, to pedal across Oz (advancing like hot knives through butter as they did when coming down the Malayan Peninsula) to test the Western Defences of Sydney when they encountered
"The Brisbane (To Melbourne) Line...".
The Curtis P-40s which were available to be bombed in Darwin in Feb. '42 were being operated by the US Army Air Corps, and were enroute to Timor (in ignorance of the fact that Timor was already in Japanese hands at that point) when the IJN Carrier Aircraft hit Darwin.
Racism, especially Imperial Military Racism..., was a VERY Big motivating factor within the mindsets of ALL the participating Combatants in both World Wars...; it is standard operating procedure to De-Humanise the Designated "Enemy" (Any Me ?) - by describing them as "vermin..., rats..., cockroaches..., untermenchen (sub-humans), devils, pagan worshippers of false Godtheories, rapists and baby-killers...
And they cheat at Criquet, too ; by Jove !
And so, on ALL sides of EVERY Combat..., as they rationalise their beliefs and behaviour to themselves, ALL the people preparing to kill Strangers parrot the same tired old universally paranoid "justification"...
"They fight to kill us, because they hate us..., whereas we fight to kill them because we love our Family, Hearth, and Homeland...; so by the Grace of our Godtheory, we DESERVE to win..., because They are all EVIL !".
I, personally, cannot see where the Universal Creator Godtheory might find room for a One Thousandth of an inch Feeler-Guage to fit between the moral and ethical positions of ANYBODY and EVERYBODY who chooses to participate in War, trying to kill Strangers, for pay..., on any side of every Conflict.
So, in a sense..., what War appears to be good for (apart from teaching Geography to the AmeriKans...!) is to enable everybody who believes in making the World a better place by blowing stuff up and killing Strangers, to actively compost each other's DNA.
Eventually, all the DNA required to build a Human Brain hosting a Mind capable of agreeing to engage in Waaauugh(!)..., will have been composted ; and then, finally,
The
Meek...;
SHALL
Inherit
The
Earth....!
Right now, apparently, almost 8 Billion bloodyminded Dickheads are eagerly clamouring for War - all as confident and eager as were the Imperial Sailors, Soldiers and Aircrew, in World War Two, as they praised their Lords of War and polished their Ammunition while planning great Victories and imagining themselves enjoying the "Spoils of War".
Karma
Cuts
ALL
Ways....
Such is life.
;-p
Ciao !
Denigration of other militaries has always played a part in war. Much of it is due to some racism, as imperial powers are loath to admit that their subjects could even stand up to them. The British were astounded that their colonial subjects were not totally against the 'enemy' when they had been treating them like dirt for decades beforehand. The fact that the Japanese were even worse after those countries were conquered should not be an excuse for the horrid treatment the British gave to their subject.s
You always denigrate the enemy. It's how you psyche up for the fight. But you better have trained up to be as good as you think you are.
@@skydiverclassc2031 The British always took the Japanese seriously from a military perspective. Look at Kitchener's visit to Japan. Kitchener, Major General Sir Henry Rawlinson and other officers went to observe the Imperial Grand manoeuvres of the Japanese army in 1909.
The fall of Singapore was a total disaster. The UK totally blew that and a lot of POWs suffered due to the total incompetence of British High Command. The Pacific wasn’t even on the radar while Germany was threatening England. They basically abandoned Australia to their militia, and if it wasn’t for the US and MacArthur fleeing to Australia, Australia would have been hung out to dry without any military equipment to fight the Japanese. We are doomed to repeat history if we don’t start realising the threat and building up to counter it. Shrinking our fleets and budgets is not the appropriate approach at this time in history.
@@cvr527 you'll get no argument from me on that statement.
@@robertd7073 unfortunately, China doesn't care about what you think. They're going to do what they want anyway, and as always, they'll continue their conquests when they prove to themselves that appeasement means that they can take what they want. The fool is the one who thinks bullies just change to pacifism when bullying gets them what they want. Chamberlain thought Hitler would stop at Poland too.
True!! The British royalty always had the blunder of ranking rich narcissistic entitled idiots to high officer status. Most never earned it and had no respect for the enlisted. They considered the enlisted as a lower class that were dumb and uneducated. You know, just like the people we vote for think about us. The over confident British thought that no one can beat them. Marshal seen that and when we started WW2, Marshal rotated his generals constantly. It worked then, but in Korea it was a catastrophe and soldiers and grunts died of hypothermia, starvation and non reinforcement. My Arthur though the Chinese of being laundry cleaning, stone aged people. Even today, I hear of Navy pilots thinking that no other country can get under the wire of a Carrier. The next major battle against a country that can hurt or Navy, Will! Because of over confidence. Like Pearl Harbor. And I think the US Navy will realize that the Carrier will be what the battleship was in WW2. We don’t need a huge ship full of fuel and thousands of people and 90 aircraft to sail half way across the world to launch a jet to go another 700 miles to drop a 500 pound bomb. Today, because of satellite tech. The carrier is not a small camouflage ship in a huge Ocean and hypersonic tech makes it a lot easier to hit a carrier, then a destroyer that zigzags. Because of the F-18 blunder(fighter, tanker, EAWS) CVN’S have to sail closer to land and re fuel a lot more. The 18 was already an inferior bird to the 14 and still is even though a14 wouldn’t stand a chance in todays tech. More Destroyers, and subs, and less CVNs. The CVN-73 is still in the yards for a half life refit. 5 years? Takes 4 to built 2. Should’ve replaced the old reactor with the same and sold it to Australia. A huge waste of tax payer money that could’ve went into stealth drone, and stealthy ship drone tech. It’s my opinion, and if I’m wrong, then educate me. I’m an old Catapult Vet (V-2) of CVN-73.
@@robertd7073 The Chinese Communist Party IS the worlds most deadly VIRUS, western nations absofuckinglutely need to build and be ready to STOP the CCP with absolute soft/hard/military power (I.e, an actual vaccine) AND such actions need to be carried out YESTERDAY, not tomorrow.
It is way past time that Australia had it's own comprehensive nuclear deterrent. We already have everything we need except the political will. Have we learned nothing from the pandemic and Ukraine?
There are only two phases of a defense procurement program: “too early to tell.” And “too late to stop.”
Blake tackles some fundamental points that are so often overlooked in pop discussions.
Thanks Ward, brilliant interview.
Please read my commentary for another more accurate US General Joseph Stilwell point view
Great analysis. It’s more information that makes me uneasy about the future. The Pentagon’s procurement , waste and ineptitude is breathtaking. General Eisenhower was so right.
Fun fact: It was the "Military - Industrial - Congressional Complex". Odd how millions of dollars of marketing helped Congress get their name out of that one, eh?
@Brendon Lee O'Connell More conspiracy theory lunacy.
@@peredavi watch Adam Curtis. He explains how the CIA changed conspiracy to conspiracy theory. Epstein’s Lolita express was a conspiracy theory, until it wasn’t.
There are always doubter but rarely do they understand the nature of what the world is. China is not an industrial power no matter how much you try to argue that it is.
@@KevinJDildonik There is an old saying that you can't buy an American Congressman But you can rent them very cheaply.
Totally agree about building hardened shelters etc on the front line ASAP. At the leadup to WW2 (for America) the US was rushing to build defences on the outlying islands from Hawaii - Wake, Midway, Johnson Atoll (I think that's the right one). The Japanese had already gone against the treaty and fortified and built up their island bases. As a result, apart from WAKE putting up a brilliant and gallant defence (if only General Percival had been able to do similar) once the Japanese gained a foothold, it was all over. Also, from my research I keep getting the impression that most US leaders thought the Japanese were going to start the war around June 1942. That is why the Pearl Harbour Ops room and the island defences hadn't been completed by Dec 1941. That's why I think that this time the US may be planning for 6 years (4 years now), but if China is aware of this, I'm sure they will work to their own timetable. And expect to be surprised! The Chinese are very clever. Look at Korea. They warned the US that they would attack and the US (McArthur) didn't believe it. The Chinese used underwater bridges along the Yalu River to cross, completely surprising the UN forces. Expect the unexpected.
Not sure I agree. Hardened shelters didn't exactly help the Iraqis.
THE P3NTAGON HAS LIMITED IMAGINATION, SURPRISE IS OUR MIDDLE NAME...
SORRY CHIEF, WE MISSED IT BY"THAT MUCH"......*_°.!
Once again I am impressed by the caliber of thinking expressed in your videos! In particular the thoughts discussed surrounding American procurement programs were by far the most "on target" of any that I've read to date.
To me, what we're living through now bears an eerie resemblance to the magical thinking of the 1920's and 1930's as far as the West's handling of rising threats is concerned. To be hopeful and optimistic is one thing, but hope as a strategy is simply compounded foolishness!
Colonial history and on its death bed Ideology 2% of world population can control and build their cities on its wealth with a gun 90: million slaughtered now usa gave the world nukes but Russia saw it coming Jews a history controlled by colonial laws its history to date rammed down our throats hiw many Jewish children suffering from terrible deformities due to thE holocaust Holocaust as perpetrated buy usa in Vietnam and Afghanistan none
Astute comment. Hopium is on the periodic table next to copium.
@@paulbarclay4114 yessir
Mr. Herzinger is a fantastic source of excellent information. I am glad there are people like him around talking about these subjects. I don't know where else to find this kind of professional frank speak about the realities we face.
Precisely. It seems it’s time to return to fundamentals in defence spending, collectively we in the main democracies and NATO need to realize that other nations are innovating faster and moving ahead of our capabilities. Thankfully there are some such has Mr. Herzinger who won’t simply regurgitate the defense industry pablum. Time to return to using a base of proven technologies and then iterate on improvements to that base as China is doing. The LCS program in particular is one of the worst examples of bloated military contractor incompetence I can think of, although TBH I hadn’t heard of the Boeing submarine nonsense until watching this video.
Thanks so much Ward for bringing on such knowledgeable guests and giving the public a rare view into the successes and challenges that are part of the US military program.
Please read my commentary for another more accurate US General Joseph Stilwell point view
A most impressive guest, Ward! He made many excellent points. Your subject matter has long been a concern of mine, more at times than at other times. We got into the Pacific War when Japan decided it was time to fight us---rather than to wait for our massive ship building program that was part of the "Two-Ocean Navy." While Japan was strictly limited to what the Japanese could build, and we were far less limited, the Chinese are now pumping out the ships and other weapons systems that we, ourselves, cannot and will not build. And, as was noted about some of our Navy's building programs, I often wonder how those programs ever got funded and off the ground??? Great interview. Most impressive on both your part and that of your guest. Go Navy!
Well thought out and insightful discussion. Appreciate the history lesson and especially enjoyed the "pacing threat" commentary. Another great job.
Please read my commentary for another more accurate US General Joseph Stilwell point view
Great to see an analyst as levelheaded as today’s guest.
Agreed. Thank God. We need to fear God more than China.
Ukraine should have produced chips instead of grain
You do realize this guy is wrong
@@chriscorts3337 Yes your bible tells us god is a far greater enemy of humanity than China.
One big thing this "analyst" keeps missing... most of the tech Chyna has is built with blueprints from USA, Israel, France. This is a matter of record, Chynese spies have been caught stealing US military secrets on a number of occasions. This doesn't mean the quality is as good and that's why they build in such large numbers.
If Chyna achieves victories in any future conflicts it will be by throwing huge amounts of hardware and infantry at their opposition, not necessarily by any tactical or engineering feats.
In fact strategists have already done simulations of Chyna invading Taiwan and the losses on the Chynese side were enormous. Also remember that they cannot just bomb everything as they would want to keep some key infrastructure (chip manufacturers) in tact.
Wow, he just gave us a blistering commentary on our procurement debacle and the unsaid corruption of the defense industry and establishment.
I've often wondered these last few years if history will look back on the corruption in the Navy especially as the reason China beat the US.
Its a system set up with limited conflict and profit in mind. Its not a system set up for a major conflict; in China's case, it could go on for a long time. The longer it goes the harder it will become.
He was spot on with that one. How many cruise missiles or F16's could we have fielded for the cost of the ridiculous Zumwalt program and other programs like it? (I guess they didn't know that destroyers are supposed to be cheap and plentiful!) In the end we will fail because of the politicians that steered billions of dollars into useless corporate Rube-Goldberg projects in order to get votes and make personal profits. Their treachery will bring us down, but few people will understand the real reason why we failed.
That's NOT just an American problem its pretty much an EVERYWHERE problem.
I'm Australian but did aerospace engineering in America. We have had this decade long debacle with submarines that's now so bad its a national embarrassment. We also have a horrendous list of government and private sector projects that had monster cost blowouts, delays and a couple of spectacular failures. *And it must be stressed its NOT just a government project problem its terrible in the private sector as well.*
If you actually go into it there's huge issues with complex project management. Its poorly understood and horribly executed and it really does bug a lot of engineers because we either get blamed or have to clean up the mess. The reasons are complex but there are some common factors.
1) There are too many voices when it comes to the basic specifications and too many of those voices don't have the skills or experience required to even be in the room, let alone sit at prominent positions at the table. Designing complex systems by committee DOES NOT WORK. I recently saw a great video on the British TSR-2. At one meeting there were 58 people and when the minister in charge told them to fix it there were 61 at the next meeting.
2) There are way too many people with economics backgrounds interfering in projects. They can't shut up and they can't stay out of the road and when they suddenly make decisions (and they do) they are usually disastrous or catastrophic.
3) Human Resources has proven to be one of the WORST management concepts EVER. The idea that someone with no understanding of engineering or how to get a project done can use psychological profiling to determine the best person to do anything is either insane, stupid, ridiculous or all 3.*IF, as they claim* that they are picking the right people and putting them in the right places for the right reasons then how come:
- NASA went from from being able to men on the Moon to NOT even being able to get people into space under the leadership of people they put in place; and
- Boeing went from building the safest passenger aircraft available to the always going to crash Max-8 under the leadership of people they put in place.
And those are just 2 of my favorite clubs to bash HR with. There's lots of others.
@@tonywilson4713 Very well said. I think of WW2, and the ability that America had to turn out multitudes of weapon systems that was mind boggling.
The race to the moon was the same.
NASA had brilliant engineers and management. Men like Paine, Gilruth, Kraft, and Von Braun. They were top notch engineers who were also very good managers of men, money and time. It is stunning to consider WW2 and the race to the moon, what was accomplished, compared to the clown show we see today.
Excellent guest. So many parallels to past history, yet lessons remain unheeded in many aspects.
Please read my commentary for another more accurate US General Joseph Stilwell point view
I can’t help noticing the full collection of Patrick O’Brian age of sail novels in Blake’s bookcase 😂😂😂. Kudos for great taste in literature Blake!
I see you too are a man of culture, John!
Me too...I was just looking at the covers. Excellent observation.
I wish the main stream media was as good at analyzing what's going on in the world as your channel is.
The MSM espouses the liberal line that everything is just fine. I took notice when the Chinese demonstrated their drone capabilities during the Olympics. 200 relatively small drones flown against an aircraft carrier renders it useless, IMHO...
They said people hated the ROC because it's was a dictatorship but failed to mentioned U.S puppet the mainland communist as a real dictatorship governments 😂🤣
I would agree completely on your last statement, Ward: the enemy is us! We're our best enemy most of the times. I'm a fan and (critic) supporter of the US Navy but I cannot stop getting dazed by their failures!
Correct
White folks has no right talking about Taiwan and China. Look at history, few example, south and north Korea, Indian and Pakistan, before north and south Vietam and......... what white folks did and trying to do is same as hundred years ago, divided the same race, and make them to hate or killed each other, so whites can control and benefit from the situations. Stop talking about human rights and other make up issues to make whites feel better. Now is 2022, information pass form one end to the other side of the world less than one second, and people are much more educated. Whites forks still thinking all colors will cook your foods and farm your lands, and you can be superior over other colors and races, what your whites wish for is LONG GONE! Wake up. Go back to you own countries and sort out the problems which are weaken you and your future, better if all whites go back to where you original from and return the lands and counties to the real indigenous people! Then we can set down and talk about human right and other things! Fair?
no worry ..US air force is the no 1 over the world !! LOL !!
Respectfully, Blake,
Prince of Wales and Repulse were sunk by long range Naval aviation, but, the aircraft were land based Mitsubishi G3M, Nells, and G4M Betty twin engine bombers in both lvl and torpedo roles.
I didn't think any of the Japanese carriers were in Malaya at the time. Force Z was sunk on Dec 10 and the Japanese fleet carriers were still sailing back from Oahu. The British force was supposed to have air cover, but were in a rush to intercept the troop transports. Further, I think these were the first battleships, not in port, to be sunk by air power.
@@ElGrandoCaymano You are spot on. The two British capital ships had no air cover, but even if they had had fighter cover, it would have been Brewster Buffalo fighters... had the Buffalos been there, I wonder if they would have been any help.
Yep, you're absolutely right! I'm going to hide behind an infant and several months of
I came here to say this too. Mr. Herzinger needs to focus more on obscure WWII facts and less time on the baby! 😄
and the (otherwise advanced) AA Gunnery radars on PoW were designed in Northern Europe and failed in the heat. They probably wouldn't have saved ForceZ from such an overwhelming number of aircraft but this didn't exactly help.
Just watched this excellent segment tonight. I also saw your segment on the shooting down of the balloon. Both informative and worthwhile. The point of who shoots first is not always the winner, but who has enough to shoot last because they have more to begin with (ships, planes, subs) is valid. Don't carry a 10 round mag when you have a 15 round mag available. Thank you.
Great content as usual Ward. Blake Herzinger is always an erudite and articulate guest. I enjoy listening to his analyses immensely.
This was a really good interview. Anyone hearing it heard the truth and if thought about, why we as the United States need to up our commitment to our military without engaging in troop damaging wars. I'm a Vet and know the damage of 100% disabled. I don't wish this life on any young soldier but the lack of essential sacrifice will topple our way of life.
You need to read Smedley Butler again; it's never been about your way of life: the US military has always been about committing war crimes to make the rich in America richer at the expense of the rights of others.
How would China annexing Taiwan threaten the American way of life? If the US and China wage war, you'd likely be killing hundreds of thousands of young Americans, wounding millions, and in the end it won't benefit ordinary Americans in any way. It'll be Vietnam x 10.
Unfortunately, it's always going to be boots on the ground that win wars/conflict. Our troops are severely lacking in relevant combat training. We spend more time on EO training than actually training for war. It's sad. Sergeants time training is a thing of the past, officers are more concerned about their OER than anything else. The state of the military really kinda sucks.
@@almo3250US intervention more/less helped and harmed some nations, but there is nothing wrong with meddling in Yemen due to the fact that the legitimate Yemeni Government personally asked the US to help them fight the Iranian-backed Houthi Rebels. The US didn't intervene for "Muh oil", they intervened because it was the right thing to do.
@@Armyb-ko9yh calm down 中国海军航空兵的训练 比美国差太多了。。
I enjoyed Blake's analytical powers, Ward Great discussion, though it left me distinctly uneasy. While I believe there are worse things than being 2nd to China in global influence (with all the incumbent costs and responsibilities), I really can't look forward to the transition. Thanks again, Mooch! Great content.👍👍👍
This cannot happen as they will come for us next if it does happen.
@Apsoy Pike it's also a lot harder to reinforce taiwan than Ukraine, just look at the map.
The US is not second to China on anything. If the US was to go to war with China tomorrow China would collapse in six months and with in a few years would be completely defeated. A lot of lives would be lost on the US side but the defeat would be guaranteed for China.
@Apsoy Pike Do you really think Congress and the current White House have the guts to fight? For Taiwan? Not a chance in hell.
I just want to say that normally when i see titles like this one, I pass, but because it's you Mooch, I'm all ears. Hearing thoughts on a topic so impactful from a warrior makes it more real & truthful. Respect
Glad to hear other Westerners speaking more openly about the Mainland China-Taiwan situation. I am an American educated in Mainland China and now living in Taiwan. While in China I studied modern Chinese history with mainland students so I have not only an academic view. Sadly to say that most westerners don't know about the events that led up to today's dangerous situation. I wish you had spoken more of the indepth background of China / Taiwan relations. You just touched the tip. Anyway here in Taiwan I wake up every morning hearing low flying Taiwan F-16s. I'll be back to hear more. Take care.
Nope, that's anti asian white national rhetoric. To be politically correct we need to let the CCP take over the world.
Anytime I watch a video on China I like to say this: China? I think you mean Mainland Taiwan
The GREED of the Walton family helped CCP in the military power accruing and the West helped by buying cheap Chinese goods.
A n y t h i n g.
Sellling tech to CCP is selling them "The ROPE" OF Capitalist demise. STOP SELLING TO CCP COMMUNISTS. NO BOEING JETS. NO A N Y T H I N G.
Great video and analysis, Only thing like to point out is that there has been a huge perception in the West that PLA has a conscription model. That is never been the case. Only time China had conscription was during the warlord period under KMT rules. Current PLA recruiting requirements are pretty high, and it isn't easy to join, requiring both physical and written exams.
White folks has no right talking about Taiwan and China. Look at history, few example, south and north Korea, Indian and Pakistan, before north and south Vietam and......... what white folks did and trying to do is same as hundred years ago, divided the same race, and make them to hate or killed each other, so whites can control and benefit from the situations. Stop talking about human rights and other make up issues to make whites feel better. Now is 2022, information pass form one end to the other side of the world less than one second, and people are much more educated. Whites forks still thinking all colors will cook your foods and farm your lands, and you can be superior over other colors and races, what your whites wish for is LONG GONE! Wake up. Go back to you own countries and sort out the problems which are weaken you and your future, better if all whites go back to where you original from and return the lands and counties to the real indigenous people! Then we can set down and talk about human right and other things! Fair?
written exams？有纸质考试吗……
@@远山-k3s yep, long format too.
@@yiping7193 征兵工作具体流程是：
1、兵役登记，适龄青年在乡镇、街道设立的兵役登记站进行兵役登记，本人没法在规定的时间亲自前往登记，可委托他人进行登记。
2、确定预征对象，乡镇、街道或企事业单位想县征兵办推荐适龄青年为预征对象，由县征兵办进行审核。
3、预征对象的管理，由乡镇、街道和县人民武装部对预征对象进行管理教育。
4、确定应征青年(报名)，由乡镇街道和县征兵办从预征对象中确定应征人员，称为应征青年。
5、初检、初审，由乡镇、街道武装部对应征青年进行身体初检、政治初审，并将初检、初审的结果上报县征兵办。
6、体格检查，由县征兵办统一组织应征青年进行体格检查。
7、政治审查，由县征兵办组织对体检合格人员进行政审。
8、审批定兵，由县征兵办根据体检政审双合格人员情况，择优定兵。
9、发放服装，在新兵起运前2-3天发放服装。
10、交接新兵，由县征兵办在新兵起运之前1天集中与接兵部队进行交接。
11、新兵起运，根据铁路运输计划，在规定的时间起运。
要不是我特地查了还真就差点信了，你说的是军校吧？
China has compulsory military service which certainly requires conscription, but it was never practiced since PLA never had trouble with volunteers. In fact there are too many volunteers. If someday PLA decided to follow the constitution and do compulsory military service and fully arms it, China will end up with an army that is half of all USA population with high tech gears (we are looking at at least 4000 5th gen fighters and 40+ supercarriers and many more; arming all of them to the teeth will be a headache as well). I'm not sure what Chinese will think about that, but I'm pretty sure the world will be very concerned.
As usual, fantastic, factual, & non-partison analysis. Thanks again Ward. Great guest.✌️
base on western thinking. lol
@@jetli740 If you prefer out of the loop politically based analysis, I suggest you try CNN, FOX, or Al Jazeera 😏
@@souljahroch2519 CNN, FOX, or Al Jazeera 🤣🤣🤣🤣 that why I said your thinking is western 1 side mindset
@@jetli740 I'm quite sure you have no idea what my thinking is.
@@souljahroch2519 Oh I do, Your 1 side Bias news surely make you clever 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
About military budgets. You may want to review Perun's video on comparing different countries military budgets and who gets the most bang for the buck. Pogo is back.
When you say Pogo, I hope that’s not a reference to POGO.
Kaohsiung is a strategic ocean shipping hub for Asia. Many ports in Asia like Manila can’t accommodate the super container ships. I managed a USG manufacturing operation in Manila and all of our incoming and outgoing containerized ocean freight would be transferred ship-to-ship in Kaohsiung.
Mr Mooch. I want to thank you for your videos / interviews with experts that knows their stuff, like Blake Herzinger and Dr Justin Bronk. It's such a strong contrast to what media is airing. I've been following Dr Bronk's facts and reflections on the Ukraine air war with great interest. These are facts that is hard to come by anywhere else. Great job!
Thank you for the discussion. I am a long time Taiwan resident. This will not play out forever, as much as I wish it would. Eyes and ears open to things as they develop. Again, thank you for the discussion.
As always useful and up to date info...as well as history and a keen insight into military planning. Great show. Sir.
Please read my commentary for another more accurate US General Joseph Stilwell point view
A topic I've thought a lot about. If I'm honest, it's a topic I'm not extremely familiar with; I should change that.
I retired from a major aerospace company a few years back. I held a Secret clearance. I was always amazed and disheartened by the number of engineers that worked there who held top secret clearances and who spoke fluent chinese.
I would imagine that is exactly what we want, no Ricky? Think about it.
Thats really scary man, the corruption is real.
@@g8way2k1 these people appeared to be Chinese nationals... Speaking fluent English was the only thing they didn't excel at. Not natural born Americans for damned sure. Perhaps there was more going on than I could safely contemplate, but it bothered me to experience them right next to a closed space.
The minute they were heard speaking chink they should have been fired
Okay Ricky but they don’t speak Chinese they speak mandarin. Forgive me if I don’t take your claim that seriously.
Truman gave Chiang full support, including the ship crossings to then Formosa. Truman also acknowledged he was dealing with a gangster. Basically the US denied China the spoils of victory, and ever since have done everything to prevent reconciliation between China and Taiwan, and those days are numbered.
This was one of the best videos I have ever watched. Not because it reinforced my preconcieved notions, but because it was a brilliant analysis led with brilliant questions.
I also like that we address that how we view a country NOW is not how thoughtful minds thought THEN, and that there are unintended consequences, now that we chose to overlook (or never recognized) in the past. Yes, Chiang Kai-Shek was a dictator, but that image is somewhat sanitized now because of the advances of his successors, especially post 2000 NOT his own works.
NOW we (and for that matter, so do PRC oligarchs) view Taiwan as this beautiful resort isle with amazing cuisine and an amazing chip company, but originally it very much was run by a dictator who was untenable to support.
I love how Ward asked if Xi learned from the world response to the invasion of Ukraine.
I love how Blake addressed the US procurement process!
I love how you both discussed the movement of manpower, gas, machinery and ammo, the prep for the military side AND the prep for the domestic front.
As an Asian, it hit me particularly about the effect of the PRC one child law, and sending that only child off to war, perhaps never to return and fulfill the familial blood line. We also should remember that in MANY Asian families, the children are expected to care for their parents in their old age. If we think the Chinese are mad because of lockdowns, I assure you that parents of military age (mostly men) are going to be mad if they look at a future where their bloodline will end and where they have no security in their old age. And remember that those parents of military aged children are facing and economy has been ravaged by the real estate rip offs and the finance industry that was devastated because of the real estate rip off.
One thing that military people don't mention, but finance people know is that there is a TON of PRC directly and Chineae oligarch money invested in Taiwan. Taiwan is one of the Chicom oligargh "second homes" of the rich and famous set. And that there is a lot of Taiwan money invested in the Shenzen, Hong Kong (Hang Seng) and especially the Shanghai stock exchanges.
The US is China's #1 business partner. Will China risk economic sanctions by the whole world as Russia faced, especially after their real estate and banking system being in shambles? Or is shinese manufactruing and sales of consumer goods to the west and to rapidly developing nations a way that it can stabilize itself after the banking collapse?
I would be interested in your opinion of non-kinetic military advantages and disadvantages each side has, especially AI and cyber. China has some of the very best cyber security in the entire world. I'm sure ours is top notch but We keep ours relatively secret.
Our Military, including the Navy is using Palantir to analyze Chinese movement and to war game. Palantir even has a promotional video about a scenario in the Taiwan Straits. We've seen the success of Palantir in Ukraine, how do you guys view it in re: China.
_____________________________________________
I absolutely do view China as an adversary and view an invasion as possible, but you two really point out that this is a complicated issue, not just a black and white, yes or no issue that is facing Xi.
Good to see Blake back, out of his dress uniform he’s been in lately..
Back in the day there used to be a newspaper cartoon titled "Pogo". It featured a bunch of animal characters that lived in a swamp. One of the more memorable lines from that was, "We have met the enemy and he is us". Unfortunately there is a lot of truth in that on a variety of different levels.
At 81, I remember that...
The willingness of our leadership in the West to keep us in the world of the great chocolate malt makes our policy too little and too late for efficient deterance.
Our desire to live in a fantasy land makes us the enemy he is us.
China has not hesitated to murder its own people by the millions.
What would it do to us?
Don Hansen
Loved that cartoon, never missed reading it, always paralleled events happening around the world.
Brutal honesty here. Refreshing. Imagine just, y'know... following the facts. Amazing what you find.
Brilliant conversation. 👏 👏 👏
Thank you.
I Have some doubts/queries. Will check and post.
Thank you again.
Please read my commentary for another more accurate US General Joseph Stilwell point view
Interesting conversation - As always! Top stuff Ward.
Please read my commentary for another more accurate US General Joseph Stilwell point view
Pogo said it first, “We have met the enemy and they is us.” Thanks to Walt Kelly.
I feel this to be an underrated VLOG
Commander, you continue to spoil us with brilliant research. Ward, well done and I am learning SO MUCH!!!!
Admiral Philip Davidson was my first CO on USS GETTYSBURG CG-64 If I could pick a secretary of the navy it would be him. Great CO and he was not a pushover when he made flag.
We actually had quite a lot of airpower in Singapore, the main problem was that we greatly underestimated the Japanese, as did the Americans. It was just as well that our carrier ran aground before reaching Singapore, as the Navy had no idea how to operate carriers. The fate of Courageous in 1939 and Glorious in 1940 bear witness to that. Chennault sent info on the Zero and how to deal with it to Britain, but it never reached the squadrons. Very few Zeros were used in the attack on Malaya as they had to fly from airfields near Saigon, but the similar but less well armed Oscar was used in large numbers. The quality of our troops and their commanders left a lot to be desired, so airfields were soon overrun. Morale was shattered by the first defeats.
Actually the Singapore Strategy was fundamentally and fatally flawed to begin with. Chief of Army Lt Gen John Lavarack advised Australian government such in the early 30's, causing much antagonism. His warnings were prescient, but not acted on. Lawrence Wackett, head of CAC (Commonwealth Aircraft Corporation) wanted to build an air superiority fighter that the country badly needed, and to get it into service by 41-42 - but couldn't get the funding.
It might have demonstrated how much trouble attacking a fighter-defended target would be.
@@ivantheteribul The troops usually fled long before the Japs arrived, leaving a lot of fighters on the airfield to be captured by the Japs. Similar incidents occurred in France in 1940. The Buffalo, although not the best fighter around, was better than it's usually given credit for and about as good as the Oscar. The Hurricane IIA well flown could give the Zero a run for its money provided you didn't try to dogfight. I recommend a book called "Hurricane Over the Jungle" by a Malaya campaign Hurricane pilot, published about 40 years ago.
A little much to say the Royal Navy "had no idea how to operate carriers", this would be the same Navy that dealt the crippling blow to Bismarck, largest capital ship in the world, with naval aviation.
@@Edax_Royeaux Yes, the same Navy that lost HMS Courageous in October1939 after sending it without escorts to hunt for subs, and the same navy that lost HMS Glorious in the Norway fiasco, June 1940 after crowding the decks with fighters so no bombers could take off to defend it from Scharnhorst!
Wow Blake sure knows his onions as we say here in the UK. To be honest I don't normally watch these sort of analysing programs very much but I was riveted right to the Rey end on this one. This should b a very big wake up call o the US an the rest of the free world for those who are ignorant of what's going on with China internally ( like me lol ) thanks Ward and Blake
Ward's channel is becoming the defense version of Larry King live, love it. Please keep bringing on more qualified guests.
Mooch, having resided here in Taiwan since 1988 and seeing first hand how well this country has developed their infrastructure, I can't imagine this beautiful island being destroyed by warfare. With the KMT gradually losing support and the DPP's pro independence stance, there is very little chance of this country accepting China's authoritarian rule. Instead of worrying about what catastrophe awaits us here, I can't help thinking about those guys on the flight decks of the carriers in our neighborhood and how pumped up they will be when they hear the general quarters announcement followed by, this is not a drill!
I was in VF 74 in '81 in the Gulf of Sidra
Oof yeah... LCS, Zumwalt, Ford, KC-46, T-7A... The entirety of DoD has a chronic procurement problem, and an acute Boeing problem.
It’s disgusting and people should be in jail, if not shot/hanged for it. It’s all a racket and our military will pay for it both in wasted dollars and in blood.
Requirements development and procurement problem.
@@andrews2990 Hold on Congress decides the budget not the military. And Congress wanted these cuts because there was no conflict that would require these programs.
The 'Pacing Threat'. I agree, Gross defense budget alone is far from a complete picture. Value for dollar spent is very important.
China won't fight in isolation. Like BRICS nations and OPEC+ are helping Russia endure sanctions. So will they support China.
Great show, looking forward to your 'Enemy Within' episode.
I think when push comes to shove, China won't have many allies. Maybe Russia since they're already getting sanctioned to hell anyways and need the trade.
India won't be supporting China.
Excellent guest, great analysis…just wish our government saw it a bit more clearly. The numbers are quite disconcerting.
I love these face to face candid discussions without all the high tech graphics
Another excellent episode - and so timely, Ward. Thanks very much. I agree entirely with Blake Herzinger. Rotation doesn't solve anything, and yes, boosting anti-missile defence is essential. Think back to the dynamic in NATO during the Cold War (where I was based as a young fighter pilot in the UK).
We were outnumbered by several orders of magnitude, in tanks, aircraft and troops. In response, we worked smart, beefing up our capabilities and capacity to defend and take the fight to the Soviet forces if they invaded - and to deter them from attacking in the first place.
Have we forgotten those lessons? If so, we're in deep trouble.
There was air cover available for force Z - it wasn't great - No 453 Sqd RAF was assigned for fleet defence. What failed was proper coordination with Force z. A number of Buffalos were eventually scrambled to provide support, after the Japanese air attack had begun. They arrived too late. The "Drachininfel" youtube channel has done an excellent video on the destruction of Force z.
The Brewster Buffalo does not constitute "Air Support". Cannon fodder maybe, but not air support. No offense to the poor pilots who were forced to fly them.
Up until this point, no combat-ready battleship at sea had ever been sunk by airpower.
Nevertheless, having faults with the anti-aircraft weapons and the weather causing damage to the ammunition would have been a red flag.
@@Edax_Royeaux Absolutely true about the inadequate AA provision for force Z - it was a RN wide problem that caused many unnecessary losses.
Interesting topic; thanks Ward!
I've been asking about the role of one child policy & combat deaths, glad to hear it raised.
The average age of a person in the Communist Party is 70 years old. There are about 5.6 million Communists that are 25 years old or younger. It is not the Chinese military. It's the Chinese party military. Troops swear an oath to the Communist Party.
Russia also suffer from same demographic and population shrinking but it doesn't stop to invade ukraine
@@Fauzanarief-n7i Russia didn't have a government mandated one child policy tho, but some demographic strains exist.
@@assertivekarma1909 but still russia population are already shrinking in years now, and their demographic imbalance when woman are more than man, so they're pretty much lacking of young man adult but still they invaded ukrainr anyway
@@assertivekarma1909 and also china is still have 1,4 Billion people, that pretty much four time the number population of US. With that number they could easily recruit 1 million volunteers without any concription or drafting
I just discovered this brief. And as always, it's fabulous Ward. TY 👌 Time stamp 9:48.. Concerning missles and accuracy. Almost an edited quote from page xx of the Prologue in Hornfischer's NEPTUNE'S INFERNO. = "Victory always tended to fly with the first effective salvo." As graphically display at the beginning and end of Master and Commander, Lucky Jack figured it out PDQ.
Terrific ! Thought provoking, Thanks Ward.
Ward, your historical synopsis of Taiwan's status is largely untrue. The only support we withheld from the 'Peanut' was armed intervention, and shut off the financial/military aid, only after the civil war was already lost in late 1948.
Chiang Kai Shek said Taiwan was a part of China. He was only interested in overthrowing the communists and returning to power on the mainland not Taiwan independence.
Russia was aiding the communists.
Don
The US did intervene unofficially in Ukraine. Weapons, "advisors", indirect air support along with sanctions. Also, China has fought the US before "Korean War" to a stalemate. We as the US I believe has chosen to maintain security in Europe over maintaining superiority in the pacific. While there were some missteps by Russia in Ukraine, they have made significant gains in terms of energy.
Great commentary by two outstanding gentlemen. I was stationed at Kadena for 3 years, so this video resonated with me.
The Chinese on their own did not fight the US to a stalemate in Korea. It was the fear of the USSR coming in with nuclear weapons if the US beat the Chinese back into China
@@Cromius771 true the USSR played a factor but all the major battles were between a technological superior US vs China.
Also the US wasn’t alone either. There was a coalition of countries that assisted the US. Some would argue the Korean War was WW3 just without nukes.
@@Cromius771 Where do you get this story? As a matter of fact MacArthur wanted to drop atomic bombs on China but Truman held him back. MacArthur didn’t seem the least bit concerned about the Soviets.
@@Bk6346 of course he wasn't worried about the Soviets
@@Bk6346 MacArthur is also a general who helped defeat the Japanese and saw how the power of atomic weapons brought the Japanese to heel. It was a new age with a older generation still at the helm. MacArthur never would have been given permission to use those nuclear weapons due to the domino effect it would spill.
This the fist time I heard anyone consider the end the family lines, the private Ryan paradox.
Informed and interested first time viewer. Button hit and bell rung.
Cheers.
Australia.
Welcome!
What a fantastic conversation.
Stalin once said that "Quantity has a quality all its own". Military and naval kit produced in times of peace tends to be built to last, because the money to replace it when ite wears out may be hard to get. When the shooting starts, it's going to "wear out" a hell of a lot faster, needing to be replaced quickly and in quantity. The brass are then going to be busy with matters other than specification and budgeting. (Look at the history of the UK Ministry of Aircraft Production.)
@T.J. Kong They don't mind lol the taxpayers foot the bill.
Easy for him to say when he was getting all his material from the US
Lenin said that, not Stalin.
Aircraft production was much simpler in WWII. Production lead times now are measured in years compared to weeks. We could never produce airframes, ships or tanks in an adequate rate today. Plus, as we give Ukraine all our Javelins, we're bringing our own tactical missile resouces below acceptable levels. Plus all the hardware left behind in Afghanistan! Current US Administration is beyond incompetent!
The Prince of Wales and Repulse were sunk by land based aviation, not carried based. G3M's (Nells) and G4M (Bettys) were Japanese land based bombers that were armed with torpedoes.
Both were part of Japanese naval air. Obviously they were not carrier based but the were naval aircraft.
You beat me to it - that mistake was pretty bad.
@brentvfreiberger… you are correct, but he did actually say “by carrier aviation”.
@@brentvfreiberger exactly.
The loss of these two capital ships was another indication of the incompetency of the British military in WW2.
If not for the US the British would have been using translation books while they learned German.
@@stevecam724 true that the United States was the essential ally. But that was no accident. The USA only entered the European war courtesy of the Germans and the Italians due to their declarations of war. On December 8 Roosevelt only sought a declaration of war on Japan. Roosevelt certainly favored American action against Germany but without the German declaration he could never have gotten Congress on board.
One big difference between the war in Ukraine and a potential war in Taiwan is that, contrary to Russia, China is importing a lot of its food and most of its oil. The U.S. could easily choke these imports far away from China's reach. I'd be interested in an expert's opinion about this.
Hopefully correct‼️😲🗣📣🥁🔔🍀🎺🇺🇸🌎
Their food and fuel come from Russia...
We need to build more of what works and focus on that.
Great conversation! Also, he looks exactly like Antoni from Queer Eye lol.
Great comparison of the US plan vs the Singapore strategy. It's pretty easy to see when a power says something about deploying forces when hostilities begin vs actually forward deploying those defenses.
Nope it wasn't a great comparison! One happened in vastly different circumstances and was a disaster, the other hasn't happened yet, if at all. And while Blake makes, some, good points he is speculating from a very narrow perspective. As was said about the success or failure of Democracy - It's too soon to say. (I'm pretty sure I'm messing up that quote, but the point stands.
@@djd8305 Ooookay. The comparison is more stripped down than a pure historical analysis. It is one that pits the experience of planning a wartime deployment vs having ready forces on hand. History has an example of how plans fall apart and turn into token gestures that lead to disaster. We have a solid counter example of the US' NATO commitment throughout the Cold War, boots on the ground and plans/material for substantial follow on forces, which worked. With those two examples we see that these can guide possible decisions with regard to the US' posture in Asia.
@@PrimarchX Ahh, apologies for 'stamping' on ya with my big boots:) Over tha past few days I've seen too many, ahem, dumb comments, which display no thinking and lots of prejudices.
Yep, history sure does suggest that sitting back and watching/waiting doesn't work. It's that Teddy Roosevelt thing, with going and carrying and sticks ....
@@djd8305 No problem. What happens with China and Taiwan is a defining issue for our future. There are lots of perspectives but no one really knows what the right answer will be. Strength, resolve and unity have been good remedies in the past, so to me that's the best course to steer in uncertain waters.
@@PrimarchX I fully agree. Russia, for decades, has been the easy bogeyman. China, because it hasn't been the bad guy, and has been the supplier of cheap 'good times' has in certain ways been under the radar.
But China is far more different to the Western World than Russia. Chinese/Asian peoples/regimes think differently than Westerners. And it is too easy to equate "Western" with American and dismiss fears of Chinese aggression, as perhaps Europeans do.
There's a reason that dystopian science fiction - eg. Blade Runner - sees the future populated by 'Asian' people and 'Westerners' as, well, different. It's about population growth, unity of purpose, a single-mindedness of purpose and central control. Ask India, African countries etc. about how determined China is to secure resources. One of Hitler's central aims was to gain territory for an expanding population. China may have more land, but scarce resources. It may only want small territorial gains - Taiwan, Tibet.... but gaining them challenges regional and international players.
Bullies often need bullies to quieten them.
Blake is is a star guest for this show. Great observations, not only on the order of battle, but also the societal issues facing China (ending entire bloodlines in a battle due to the 1 child years), and many other areas. I also agree that if China takes this shot and misses, it spells the end of the CCCP. Thanks for a great discussion.
One thing that a lot of civilians forget: Ground bases cannot move, but Naval forces can.
But in the modern context, even Naval forces can be fairly quickly re-located and targeted.
Also, China is building sillouette targets of US aircraft carriers and other surface combatants in their vast deserts - and USING them to test all types weapons systems, but especially ballistic and hypersonic systems.
Would be surprised if Russia and China weren't engaged in discussions on China building zircon hypersonic cruise missiles.
@@johnbrinsmead3316 The "No Limit" relation includes technology transfer between China and Russia.
@@johnbrinsmead3316 China's 10x speed of sound wu-14 missile entered service in 2014, far earlier than Russia, the known hypersonic missiles that have been equipped are DF-17, CJ-100, XK2, YJ21, etc, about 5 to 6 types, this year in Zhuhai publicly displayed the air-launched version of YJ21 and began exporting it, China's weapons manufacturing has actually been done independently since 1990, so It was only in 2004 that we had a large wind tunnel with 7 times the speed of sound, much higher than the United States. No country would take its most advanced weapons and share them, and we have started to export the YJ21, and we hope to popularise him to all countries that need to fight against aircraft carriers.
Too bad though that the discussion only mentioned based nearby like in Okinawa.
Is why the US has redeployed and reconstituted the types of forces on far off but relevant bases like Guam. China could try to wipe out nearby bases but would find it much more difficult to wipe out bases like in Guam. Not only would targeting be more difficult but the distance would mean that any attack would likely be detected with time to make decisions long before the missiles arrive. Unless hypersonics were launched from very nearby like submarines, I doubt anything launched from elsewhere would have much chance of success.
@@tonysu8860 You only need one or two missiles to hit Guam. On the other hand China also has more time to detect attacka coming from Guam.
Thank you for your service Ward and Blake and thank you for this very educational video about Taiwan and China.
Many thanks Ward and Blake, well said and presented. I was the Commander of Marine Forces Pacific in 2008 and it was pretty obvious then where the PRC was going. There was very little time in Washington for the views of Service Components or even PACOM at the time. The so called "pivot" was in name only and Allies and the PRC saw that clearly. Our current problem is also one of "too little, too late", I regret to say...... I hope the world doesn't pay a terrible price for it.
The key to the defense of Taiwan is to stop the Chicoms at sea. An invasion would require a massive amount of sea-borne troops and the supplies required to support them. Sinking those vessels would stop the invasion cold.
Taiwan needs to focus on the acquisition of anti-ship missiles and submarines.
Taiwan has the capability to build both, however it would require some technology transfer. I don’t think the current US congress would approve that though
@@stingray427man Taiwan already possesses US-made Harpoon missiles. More could be acquired. Very high quality diesel subs can be acquired from Germany.
@@IMDunn-oy9cd sub acquisition would probably require years to obtain however I agree Taiwan should be working towards both as long term Insurance. They are fully capable of building quality military equipment. They have some of the best chip manufacturing technology
正确 /Correct
@@stingray427man Japan has offered their indigenously build subs to the Australians. This submarine would more than meet their needs.
The question becomes, what happens in 10 of 15 years when these ships, aircraft & other high tech weapon systems need major maintenance cycles. Being able to build & field a weapon system is only a fraction of the cost & expertise required to keep these systems relevant; see the Soviet/Russian Navy. Another TH-camr (Aaron Amick @ Sub Brief) mentioned that the quietest a submarine will ever be is right after it's put in service. Will China just keep dropping new hulls in the water rather than trying to do life extensions? Does this enter into the PRC timeline?
The Chinese procurement process is more corrupt than the U.S. system. China last stress tested its military in Vietnam and lost. Its officers gain rank through bribes. China could wind up like Russia in Ukraine by believing its own hype.
This is a very good point - the majority of the cost comes from the Maintenace, setting aside facilities for dry docking, etc.
The surge of ship building is possible because they didn't have to have facilities and funds being funneled into preserving their current fleet like the US
The problem with the U.S. military is that it currently is set up to generate profit for American corporations rather than build the most capable force. Of course, the U.S. military does get lucky at times and build some quite capable hardware, but then as was stated in the video, a lot of the expenditures and theoretical projects come to naught. We waste so much money with our military currently. I am afraid that when another real war comes the U.S. is going to find that it isn't nearly as well prepared as our budget would indicate that we are. A lot of that money - it is in the pockets of company shareholders and the rich.
If US is concerned about Taiwan people, US should support peaceful unification. And two sides should start negotiation for unification now. But it is never US interests to see peaceful unification. What can you expect from a country started around 50 wars in the past 30 years, killed millions and caused 50 million refugees?
Ward, your guest is brilliant . Blake should be Chief of Staff . Good on you for interviewing him .
Fantastic interview! Thank you Blake and Ward, you're awesome!
Our pleasure!
After seeing Russia’s military perform so poorly in Ukraine I can’t help but wonder about China’s quality of training and level of corruption and how that might effect their performance.
If there is a relevant lesson for Taiwan in the Ukraine war it is that smart weapons in huge numbers can raise the cost of invasion so high as to make it prohibitive. If Taiwan is smart they should start now building 10,000 50-kilometer anti-ship missiles and 10,000 more 15-kilometer anti-ship missiles and as many anti-aircraft weapons as China has planes + helicopters. It will cost many $ billions but will make invasion an impossibility. Worth every penny and would avoid the direct conflict between the US and China that would be catastrophic for the whole world.
Unlike Ukraine, Taiwan is an island surrounded by ocean. China can starve Taiwan out through blockade without a fight. To break the blockade though, U.S. and its Allies will be facing direct confrontation with Chinese forces.
@@nanjiang1953 you raise the excellent point that Taiwan can remain independent only by achieving self-sufficiency in many dimensions. With a strong anti-ship defense Taiwan can break a naval blockade though it would then be in a shooting war with China. At that point one has to ask what other outcome is possible but the maximum possible destruction of Taiwan. And before the fact what could China gain by doing such a thing? Ruling ruins is pointless. Only Russia seems to think otherwise.
Notice the fact: Taiwan is part of China and should go back home. Why do you expect there is a war between Taiwan of China and Mainland China? They are in ONE country.
The Germans lost the war for many reasons, one major reason was the focus on "dream weapons" that had no meaningful impact on the war.
The US builds dream weapons all the time, but if we need to use them in a shooting war, the dream weapon will soon turn into a nightmare.
It does seem that the US Navy faces many challenges, workforce training and motivation being first and foremost, the Seawolf class boat driving into the ground is one of a few public examples.
Today's weapons systems are quite complex and the quality of the war fighters education the ability to understand and employ has dropped.
And also strategy, many problems with the latest classes of ships, as mentioned at the close.
That's a spurious comparison. Germany was resource poor, and led by true mad men. And, where is your evidence that "the ability to understand and employ has dropped."?
@@djd8305 I would not classify my comments as Spurious at all. Tiger, Panther, Ferdinan, ME262, V1, V2, No advanced night fighter development, they flew the 110 to the end...In short, never enough of these advanced systems on the battlefield, Look at the host of tanks they built, I have a background in DOD-based manufacturing, It's a clear example of not having enough resources spread way too thin. Time to build plan to fighting vehicle, teething the list goes on. Jet Blue flies 1 airframe, and United has multiple, talk to those guys it's hard to make a profit managing a diverse fleet. At JB staffing 1 plane, crews are interchangeable. And to reply to the 2nd part of your comment, I have a hands-on background in the industry...
@@cvr527 Thanks I am reading Duel under the stars now!
What are some examples of a “dream weapon” within U.S. military equipment inventory?
@@Gridlocked Sorry I used the term in reference to the precise nature of the systems. Maintaining USAF assets and others under combat conditions in the pacific will become challenging. Cool toys but if the shooting starts, will the systems hold up. Due to the limited base options, these will become targets that can be concentrated on for strikes. Same holds true for the SSN Fleet, resupply will have to be done outside the combat operations area. Added transit time. The nature of systems today creates a very narrow footprint for operations. Any conflict with China will be the most serious operational challenge that the US has faced since 1945.
Y'all might want to look at the USAF Rapid Dragon program. It will give the US Navy heavy backup in a fleet to fleet engagement.
All the best for the new year. Really enjoy the military hardware and ops content, will stay with Spengler for China analysis. Re: Formosa, a friend of my dad did recon aviation during the Chinese civil war. Each battle he observed ended with the KMT abandoning their weapons to the Communists. Decades later, sure glad my son and most of his friends are out and not target practice for expanding Chinese assets that seem to understand Mahan better than we do
Thank you for sharing. ✌️🇺🇲🙏
Historically, wars between trading partners is not unusual. So, war between USA and China is not unthinkable.
And how's that supposed to work exactly?
@@WALTERBROADDUS one side pulls a trigger. Not hard really. Xi has already made it clear he is more interested in governmental stability than economic. And China has long been weaponizing America's unwillingness to shake up the economic boat against us. At some point, you have to be willing to rip off the bandaid, unless you plan to start learning Mandarin.
@@cjohnson3836 you still haven't answered my question how far you willing to take it? You plan on marching to Beijing?
@@WALTERBROADDUS You never asked me a question numbnuts. You asked another person how a war between two trade partners starts. I answered. Its not fucking hard. The rest of your "mArCHinG oN BeiJinG!!11!" fucktardistry is irrelevant. One side shoots, you're now at war. That's all it takes.
@@cjohnson3836 actually I did. What is the end game here? Once the chess moves begin. What do you expect the Chinese to counter with? If you could not take out the Taliban, what makes you think you're going to be able to defeat the people's Liberation Army and a billion people Plus? Why does making war or one of our largest trading partners make any lick of sense?
Excellent video again sir - on an important subject. Keep up the great work!
The problem with focusing on quantity though is just leading us down a path of mutual escalation where there's not gonna be a winner. It was one thing to play this game with the Russians, whose economy we presumed would at some point or another run out of steam and leave us as the undisputed master superpower. But with the Chinese we can't be operating under the same calculus. Its just going to go on and on - greater and greater numbers. Additionally, this feels reactionary as well - and that's not a position the US and our military should be operating from.
We don't want the threat of conflict over Taiwan to be what propagates an out of control snowball of conventional forces build-up/proliferation of the US and China, never mind it also having the potential to lead to greater nuclear proliferation as well.
Also, the idea that the American public would accept for any significant length of time a conflict over the defense of Taiwan that factors the significant loss of life of US military personnel is I think very unrealistic. If the Chinese are willing to lay it all on the line to take Taiwan, expecting the American public to do the same is really unimaginable. And none of this is saying that its ok for China to do this, nor that the US should simply stand by and allow China free reign - but gearing up for a *major* war with China over Taiwan just seems crazy. There has to be another angle. And being cynical as well, I think the defense industry certainly loves things like that prospect - but I think concerning as well though is the fact that top American service personnel are very seriously considering the prospects of such a war and of how to win such a war. The guest just referenced this as an arms race, and we just cannot go down that road again.
Ok - digressing real quick I want to also thank the guest for calling attention to the problems the defense industry has had with devoting valuable time and resources to projects that were complete wastes for various reasons (I've commented previously on the major issue with the littoral combat ship fleet debacle that we're currently still in the middle of) and that took money/resources away from other legitimate programs and/or from the acquisition of supplies etc that all branches of the military desperately could have utilized.
You, like most people unfortunately here forgot the important caveat, USA isn't the sole defender of democracy in the world, just the biggest. USA has plenty of allies in the Pacific with modern forces who are ramping up their own military spending.
You really think south east Asian countries in the pacific are sticking their heads in the sand now?😂
Let alone Britain's renewed interest, and several pacific rim countries including Australia .
Chinas own expansionist policy includes much of the pacific rim , Taiwan is just one of MANY.
@@snapdragon9300 China doesn’t have any expansionist views. China considers Taiwan a part of their territory. You forget Chiang Kai Shek and the Chinese Civil War. Taiwan has never declared independence or held a referendum for independence. It’s status is still a gray area.
well said.👍
@@Bk6346 “China doesn’t have any expansionist views.”
China might not, but the acquisition of certain border 'territories' by the CCP and those artificial islands in the West Philippine Sea says that the CCP does.
“China considers Taiwan a part of their territory.”
The CCP has never held the island of Formosa so has no legal claim to it, and to be frank most of us Americans do not care if the CCP considers Taiwan to be a part of their territory. As long as Taiwan does not consider itself as a territory of the CCP we will support that viewpoint, and unlike the other territorial acquisitions that the CCP has made we have certain agreements with Taiwan. How far we go with this support probably depends on how far the CCP goes to take control of Taiwan.
“You forget Chiang Kai Shek and the Chinese Civil War.”
Again, it’s not about forgetting, it’s about not caring.
The CCP tried to remove ROC from Formosa and failed, so as far as we care the Chinese Civil War is over. The CCW created 2 independent nations in 1949, the PRC which is now the CCP and the ROC or Taiwan as we know it.
“Taiwan has never declared independence or held a referendum for independence.”
Every time Taiwan would talk about doing this the CCP would pull a hissy-fit, and for a time the world was more interested in making money off of China than supporting Taiwan, so it was just easier to not do anything. Unfortunately for the CCP it’s proving more and more to be less the benevolent business partner, and more the authoritarian asswipe that it is.
Personally I think it’s time for Taiwan to make the change and tell the CCP to GFY, but that is easy for me to say being I’m here in the states.
@@jdeuraud1096 Sounds like self serving logic. Taiwan was a part of China during the Qing Dynasty. Chiang Kai Shek was a political refugee from the mainland and he ruled Taiwan from 1949 till his death in 1975. He wasn’t interested in Taiwan independence but only to overthrow the communists and return to power on the mainland. Even to this day the KMT says that Taiwan is a part of China but that China is the ROC and not the PRC. You need to read up on your history.
Great and intelligent conversation.
Great discussion with the historical background. This is the potential conflict that could sneak up on us, although it shouldn't.
I like what Ward said, "the enemy is us" in the end of the show, you have made very clear in the beginning that the war between PRC and ROC (Taiwan) is an unfinished civil war just like civil war happened in the US history, it is a pure internal matter. Taiwan is not formally recognized as a sovereign country by UN, even US doesn't recognize Taiwan as country, so Taiwan is not like Ukraine, If China taking on Taiwan by force, It won't have much support from UN members in legal term.
If US wants fight a war with China in China's door step, US has no chance to win that war as many US General already pointed out. If China invades Taiwan tomorrow, there will be no major military movement in day time, everything pretty much there. Just like in Aug 4 military drill surrounding Taiwan island, no major military deployments were observed, all the missiles, artillery launched from different part of the coasts.
The only problem here is that from a strictly military viewpoint could China afford to risk US/Japanese intervention in a Taiwan
prepperatory attack by just attacking Taiwan in a surprise attack while leaving the US/Japan all their capabilities to respond with
overwhelming force? Neither the US nor Japan would wait around for a UN resolution to intervene and both countries could move their
naval assets (minus attack submarines) out beyond the first island chain and dispurse their aircraft to smaller alternate airfields.
China would be taking a huge risk not trying to get in the first blow against the US and Japan, which in turn would force the issue
because US and Japanese officials would claim they are defending themselves as much as they would be defending Taiwan.
The American people wouldn't care if Taiwan was recognized by the US before the war. It would only matter that American lives were lost
in a sneak attack and somebody needs to pay.
@@TheLAGopher The USA didn’t even intervene in Ukraine which is a sovereign country. China and Taiwan are still in a civil war. China has now a large enough navy, nuclear arsenal, anti-ship missiles, chemical and biological weapons to make the USA and Japan think twice in to entering into a war.
When the equation is one missile to sink one ship, it really doesn't matter who has the better ships.
That is exactly the lesson of the Ukraine repulsing the 'superior' invadors
Finally somebody that actually knows what is happening in SEA, being as I live in SEA I thought this was very good as I see everyday just how toothless the US would be in the area....if China invaded Taiwan it would take them a matter of hours to negate Okinawa and that is just a fact...the only service I see actually planning to fight in SEA is the USMC and honestly if it happens that will be too little to late
Once China negates Okinawa or Guam is nuclear war. So, they won't do that unless the real objective is the end of the present "civilization".
The USMC’s AOR is within the Indo-Pacific region (USINDOPACOM).
Guam, Australia and Hawaii is US main military bases.
Mr. Herzinger is a tremendously valuable guest!! Excellent source of information!
Fantastic Content. Blake Herzinger is lucid, informed, and on point. Well done. Hope you have him back often.
Taiwan or Formosa was ceded to japan in the Treaty of Shimonoseki in 1895 so it was not even a Chinese territory in 1949 when the KMT claimed it.
正确/Correct !
No it was returned as part of the Japanese surrender treaty in 1945.
@@dinte215 It was never returned because China was not part of the Unconditional Surrender Armistice Agreement and at the time of the surrender the KMT was the legitimate and recognized government of China.
60 years is not a long time in the Chinese zietgiest - pretty sure the KMT considered a rightful Chinese possession.
@@purebloodstevetungate5418 are you suggesting the taiwan government is illegal? It gives chinese government more right to claim taiwan as China is the only country that claim to own taiwan and i don’t see any country will fight a war with China to occupy taiwan.
Some very good points being discussed in this episode. I do however think that if China goes for an all out war they will face the same issue Russia is facing in Ukraine. Issues like logistics, leadership, strategy, etc. The first attempt at a strike may go well but when the shit hits the fan will they be able to keep their composure? I am not to sure about that.
Their logistics issues will be much less than our own given the distances involved, not to mention 100 years of procurement ineptitude on our part. Always, always developing the wrong weapons for the war in front of us.
Logistics is one area that China is well ahead of the US, especially in the Westpac area. They are the worlds largest manufacturing power, they have all the infrastructure in place they need to move material from their industrial heartland to their coastal ports, and onto ships for export throughout the world.
In your recap of the history of Taiwan, I believe you left out one important detail -- prior to and during WWII Formosa (Taiwan) was a possession of Imperial Japan. It had not been under Chinese control (although its people, language and culture were Chinese) for some time.
Korea was occupied by Japan from 1910-1945. It was supposed to become an independent country but was split up into the North and South by the USA and the Soviet Union after the war. Japan also occupied Sakhalin Island from 1905-1945. Taiwan was returned to the government of China after the Japanese surrendered in 1945.
That, and the KMT killed a lot of local Taiwanese when they fled to Taiwan, forcefully taking it over.
Thank You Blake! That was a very informative brief. Think we need to replace Mark Milley with Blake but seeing how that isn’t a option. I would settle for Admiral Richards, who’s comments just yesterday could be a continuation of this topic Wade. Thanks again love your channel.
Ok, so Blake's analysis was very concise, very informative, what I was waiting for, and did not hear ( as a retired Recon Marine), was the fact that China has no battle experience, they, as well as their hardware are untested, one thing I can tell you from personal experience is that the US Military is very effective at destroying an enemies command and control in the opening days of hostilities.
Is the US planning on invading or bombing China? Attacking another nuclear power like China or Russia is another ballgame. Especially Russia with their 6,000 nukes and other weapons of mass destruction such as chemical and biological.
Never thought about that angle about ending family lines. Scary stuff