Lok Sabha Prediction | ‘Big Question: Will BJP Cross Majority Mark?’ - Sanjay Kumar, CSDS
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 19 พ.ค. 2024
- Fifth phase of Lok Sabha elections 2024 has concluded, and with this, the world’s largest democratic exercise has reached its penultimate phase. India is just two weeks away from the big verdict. Where do the elections stand now, after the completion of five phases? What could the next two phases have in store? Editorji’s Vikram Chandra caught up with one of India’s top psephologists, Sanjay Kumar of CSDS, to discuss these questions.
#theindiastory #vikramchandra #loksabhaelection2024 #sanjaykumar #csds #electionswithej #electionnews #elections2024 #politicalnews #politics
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BJP will be loosing till June 3rd
On June 4th sudden EVM HACK 😂
Nonsense. 🍇 are...
th-cam.com/video/QjrSPLFil68/w-d-xo.htmlsi=4kXzrZod4MsHDzSK iska 5 sal phle ka disscussion
Opposition k dhakkanon ne rona toh Shuru kar diya but ab yeh EVM ka bahana bhi nh bana sakte....SC se laat kha chuke hein
No chance of hacking EVM this time if done there will be bloodshed. The power of people can't be decided by hacking EVM.
th-cam.com/video/lmru8sLc7fQ/w-d-xo.html
It seems Sanjay kumar is confused master as he doesn't want to tell bjp's victory. Committed.
He is the same guy who said Congress getting majority in Chattisgarh 🤣
Prashant Kishore sticks his neck out. Not Sanjay Kumar.
sticking neck out is not a virtue on its own - every tom dick and harry has been shouting about BJP win and saying likh ke lelo bs. so really does not matter.
plus from what I hear this is perhaps the first 'admission' by a professional psephologists who runs a relatively credible poll agency that partners with mainstream meadia channels about such numbers. So idk what you are on about here.
You are absolutely right Sir
Paid.
sticking neck out is not a virtue in itself. even a lafandar has been saying 400 paar. kishore did not say anything too different. infact first time a credible poll analyst like Sanjay has said something about BJP/ NDA being in trouble, so i dont know what you are on about.
@@nextingting well articulated! 👍
There is close fight and it's good for democracy.
With ECI working in favor of BJP, with tons of cash (EB, etc) in BJP's kitty, thorough Surat / Gandhinagar / Indore model - where do you see fair ground? So calling it 'close' fight is very inappropriate. If there was fair ground, BJP would lose any day to the India alliance.
@@dip-tree Absolutely!
@@dip-tree That's what losers do.. Blame others for own failure and never retrospect because of narcissistic tendency and arrogance.
The days are gone when u could make people fools by such claims. Now people are seeing both sides.
What had happened during Congress era, what they and their so called allies are doing in their states.
So instead of blaming try to improve urself
@@abhimanyunath2001 Hey you must be from some other planet to not know the bias ECI is showing towards BJP this time. Looks like you are a bhakt, and so your arguments are trash. Don't waste your time other than stuffing gobar in your brains. Little do you have credibility to give advice to others, like jokers in BJP. And just for the info of others - I am not a bit sympathetic towards what Congress (or anyone in power) use to do and still doing.
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Sanjay Kumar is the first psephologist to change stance from giving BJP NDA a clear majority
Check his previous exit polls 🤣
He had given 277 for NDA in 2019
@@ab2003710% variation is Ok.
@@dhari-rl6su what 10%
NDA got 350
He gave approx 75 less 😂30% variance
In psephology only 2% variance allowed
Arey Bhai u are the same Sanjay who said in 2019 " BJP 205,210,215 Tak seemith ho sakte hain". Search his videos from 2019.
Yes I know. Please send the video link of 2019 of sanjay kumar pf bjp where he said 204, 210.
😅😅😅
@@priyankshrivastava915 u can search 2019 and his name.
@@vamshi12in thanks. I want to know because Sanjay Kumar is saying something different that bjp alone slightly struggling to gain 272 seats wheras phalodi satta bazar is giving 280 to 300 seats to bjp after five phases of polling. National media is saying different, one side some poll strategist is saying against & some are saying clearly support of bjp. Csds conducted survey pre poll election survey in which they predicted that bjp vote share will increase from 38% to 40% & congress upa 19% to 21% but on tv channels he is completely different.
th-cam.com/video/QjrSPLFil68/w-d-xo.htmlsi=4kXzrZod4MsHDzSK
Very nice discussion Sanjayji. Namaste.
Correct observation
I think this time INDIA ❤
Todays politics are around Letter "M" - Fairly speaking Money,Mandir,Mangalsutra,muslim,Machili,Motton and Monk.... Non of these words wont help in upliftment of poor, jobs for unemployed and peace in the country without any agitations across... Facts are very hard to listen but true
the congress is playing dirty game of dividing hindus in the name of caste. Modi was forced to use M card...how long can nation run on freebies and breaking our own limbs by turning poverty into caste problem and thus benefit from corruption.
Sarr me bhery egucated
Me bhatch deily dhruv and rabbish sarr
Let us make you the PM....you have the ability and vision handle 140 crores!!
First identify the root problems then come with ur arguments.
Current government is way better than the Opposition
@@abhimanyunath2001😂😂How? Modiji wave has gone because of his dictatorial and rubbish speeches in the present election campaign. BJP hatao desh bachao. Congress and INDIA alliance Zindabaad.
UP People will decide the Indian democracy.
No political party in India should get extreme power, be it BJP, Congress or any party. Every Indian has dictatorial instinct, which needs to be checked by other Indians.
Csds sanjay kumar always been 50--50 PERSON. HE TALKS always supporting both.
Nobody talking about seats of congress..Strange..
Congress 150 seats +/- 20 seats.
South & North East contributes 75 seats to Congress.
2019 before results opposition we’re talking the same thing, no Modi wave.
Now the same people are talking last time Modi wave was at peak, now there is no wave😂😂😂
That is pulwama wave. Wave created by modi. Now all them understand so there is no wave
th-cam.com/video/lmru8sLc7fQ/w-d-xo.html
So why are you listening and commenting on it? 🤔
@@sandeeproy1327 why are you looking my comment and replying?
2019 Pulwama happened. There is no Pulwama in 2024.
Where do all these people come from? For instance, if you believe they have worked at the ground level, they didn't understand the truth. that's the main problem. This guy does not make any sense in his report. Just a point less direction less talk. In a foolish way, Yogendra Salim yadav is best.
Indians are not fool, we have enough of Modi. The plight of poor people speak
Simple issue made complicated, Editorji. NDA is getting Majority whether BJP gets majority or goes to 370+- is Q.
Imbalance sound output. We have to raise volume when Vikram speaks, and reduce while the Sanjay speaks.😮
Very poor sound quality
Sir ur analysis is if u win max seats then it has to loose some seats since it cant increase the Tally (hear BJP) what logic is this sir? In Karnataka BJP won 25 in 2019 so according to to u it has loose, i cant understand sir
true, bjp is going to loose karnataka elections, first thing it has already lost the state to congress which is ruling party now and moreover there is that Prajwal Revanna case, where the PM himself directly shared the stage with the accused sex scandal person and has directly asked people to vote for the [erson who is accused in a sex scandal.
Seems like an interview. No cross talk and no interruptions. Allowing expression of ideas
Good analysis
Sanjay ji, please clarify whether it's a close fight or still largely one sided contest ?
Bcoz if it's the former, then only it seems there is some good hope for opposition and India needs strong opposition.
Things are almost clear from Sanjayji.
Well said
Wait upto 4th of June
Bharat mata ki jai
It is advisable to summon the national icon of the ECI for his expert analysis.
This guy gave BJP 271 seats in 2019 among them gave BJP 63 seats in UP and 16 seats in Karnataka 😂😂 he was proved wrong BJP won 27 seats out of 28 in Karnataka and almost all states results proved him wrong.
Not sure if you understand sephology. It's not about absolute numbers. It's about predicting which way the wind is blowing and who could emerge victorious, especially in a country as diverse as India. If someone predicts with a 10% margin of 271 for 303 and 62 for 63 in Uttar Pradesh is very commendable. The guy can be proud of his work.
@@rtpcr007 yes understood few months ago they predicted full majority to Congress in Chattisgarh MLA election.🤣 And they show this on national news Channels just to fool people for TRP.
I wonder even to day there are people who think Congress will get majority. May god bless them. Now question is how many seats seats BJP will get or NDA will get how many seats. BJP with NDA partners will form the govt at central 2024 is foregone conclusion.
I wonder even to day there are people who think BJP will get majority. May god bless them. Now question is how many seats seats Congress will get or INDIA alliance will get how many seats. Congress with INDIA alliance partners will form the govt at central 2024 is foregone conclusion.😆😆😆😆😆😆😆😆
@@learntherightfulget ready to cry on 4 June , I feel sorry for you buddy 😢
@@learntherightful Dont worry congress wont cross 50 seats pan-india
Pls do a vedio after June 4 th. I will Wait 😂
th-cam.com/video/QjrSPLFil68/w-d-xo.htmlsi=4kXzrZod4MsHDzSK
Following the ancient Indian culture, won't it be the time for Modi to go for either 'Vanaprast' or 'Sanyas'?
Thanikku pokkam... Karnavar evideyum ponnila.. Modi 3.0 loading
There is no doubt. Both bjp or NDA NEVER GET MAJORITY. Cong alliance is going to form the next govt. people want a change. That is clearly visible all over the country.
No political party should get extream majority ...strong opposition is more important to stop dictatorship!
Nice
If BJP win . It will not be walk in the park this time . Third term means bjp will have to deliver . And people will get impatience very easily. Also opposition will be stronger 🙏
Even if BJP wins ten times, they will not deliver. They, basically have no intention of delivering. Only looting the common people, the poor and the middle class!
Try all you may, but you will not be able to change the direction of the wind!
Along with Modi , Sanjay would also retire after election results are announced on 4th June.
400 par BJP
Sanjay Kumar c.voter always support to opposition parties
I wasted 16 minutes watching this video.. Sanjay Kumar kept repeating"difficult to say" 10 times..He didn't stick his neck out.
th-cam.com/video/lmru8sLc7fQ/w-d-xo.html
Sk himself is confused abt election outcome
Can’t agree to the gentleman’s opinion😮
th-cam.com/video/lmru8sLc7fQ/w-d-xo.html
Vikram..you are intelligent use your conviction ...don't promote false narrative
150 for bjp less than 200 for NDA. This will be the most surprising election results ever.
4 tarikh ko is msg PE reply krna
@@tejastorawane8349 sure
Day Dreaming
Continue dreaming Day & Night till 4th June 2024.
@@SRINIVASACRAO okay no problem. I gave 63 seats for Congress in Telangana it got 65 and 120 for Congress in Karnataka it got 130+ let's see.
Can any body explain me what CSDS speaking BJP is loss or what Should be have do BJP
Bjp nda 217 Congress IndiA 303
Sanjay Kumar ji , are we talking on assumptions and not ground reality . Good you are commenting, but without much valid reasons.
Many experts are reading or predicting in the nerrative of 2019 but they will fail in many cases this time😂😂
They do same everytime but on results day they change their tone
No need BJP anymore.. we need job
Sanjay Kumar ideologue of Tukde Tukde Gang !
Sanjay Kumar is playing safe. Nothing very praiseworthy.
It seems a thin majority for BJP....atleast this discussion points towards that....
Simple slogan BJP hatao desh bachao.
Very poor sound quality
NDA will get around 230-240
Right prediction👍🏼. BJP NDA will not cross 250+. High chance of India Alliance to get around 282-295
350+ for BJP LED NDA is right assessment
If BJP looses there will be a khichdi government so likewise corruption will also be more.I am mot denying there is no corruption in Modi regime but it's not that much.
Two Commies discussing voter mood…irony must have died 1000 times…nothing has changed nor the Ram Mandir has lost its relevance in this election….its the nerrative that’s set…blame EVM, if 400 paar…go to courts, disrupt the mandate…
Oh this is the old NDTV group who wants bjp to loose. But these idiots lost NDTV the same way their prediction.
Indi will win..
SBI refuses to disclose bond details
Despite CJI order
Accepting in SC
Auditor CA must face nfra investigation too
Looting 50 cr VOTER accounts daily , SBI
Why SBI open 9-3:30 pm , not 9-9 pm x 7 days
Create 3 shift
Pay 1/3
Will help investors, job creation too
Very realistic, valid opinion. 👍🏻♥️
We are now 1977 election scenario without JP stature around and INDIA Alliance will sweep
Who is 5he face of Indi...noBody..People are not fool to elect 5 pm in 5years.
@@yoyovivek then what about UPA govt? UPA govt was a coalition govt.. Did you saw 10 Prime Ministers during 10 years?? Dont be fool.. Think straight forward...
Sad Kangress is Doomed Party . Matter of Discussion is how many seats BJP will Get.
All women voted for RS 1 lakh freebies. All youth voted for Rs 1 lakh freebies.
All narratives will expire in 10 days time. What will be left is the credibility of people like Sanjay Kumar.
BJP total seats near 325. Maximum.
So basically economy, so many social schemes, minimal corruption, law and order, peace is not good enough? People want bomb blasts, mafias, loot, riots - thats the brief this gentleman seems to be giving! Ram mandir, 370, foreign policy are also important. What is the vision that the opposition has to offer, apart from dividing Hindus along caste lines and appeasement?
Corruption bale gathbandhan ko koi scope nahi for sure.. keep analysing your ways but public opinion is absolutely different in strong favour of modi ji😂
You keep on going back to 2014,2019...
What about Modi's recent nonsensical utterances ....do you think these don't have any effect on voters?
I think Sanjay Kumar playing with Statics..and he change his mind and it's hard to believe him but i have convinced with prasant kishor who very confident and stick with pre poll predictions
Sanjay was Yogendras chela in office.
For healthy democracy it is important to change the government but if we see as a nation purpose BJP is good
Dear friend totally tell BJP wont come as expected
Simple. Dont waste ptecipus time
Hope you wont comeon line on 4 th june. Switch off tv at 12 and go to bed
Looks like a poor rebuttal of his initial views. Sanjay looks completely out of sorts !!
Works done by modi... article 370 removal. Triple talaq.. 4 crore houses.. 4 crore toilet s... Gold mudra... Bank accounts for farmer... Digitalization... Semi conductors manufacturing... Computors, cell phone s record production.. Ayodhya. Kashi development ( employment creation) . Navi mumbai bridge.. 24 Aims hospitals... Ayushmaan bharat.. Free corona vaccine.. Most popular world leader... Good foreign relations. Strong defense... Record export of fighter planes.
BJP will not get majority of its own, it was clear after Karnataka Elections. That why everything happened in Maharashtra, Bihar, Bharat Ratna, Jharkhand Delhi and ED CBI etc.
Only question is whether NDA will get majority mark 272 or not.
If the people vote for bjp, they vote for ration not for employment.
Arey Bhai watch his 2019 analysis. Still these people have face to showup and predict the elections. He said Rajasthan Congress will get 10, madhya Pradesh Congress will gain and in Bengal BJP will not cross 10. And over all BJP will get 205-215. 😂😂😂😂😂😂
2019 balakot changed everything
Game seems to be turning around. Mr SANJAY Kumar is a reputed analyst
Govt schemes aur benifits mein kuch anyay nahi like congress. Ram mandir ban vaya, National highways double kiya, article 370 Nikal diya, No terror attacks on civilians, Inflation lower then UPA days, No enemy country threats. Superior international policy. Ye sab chodke kisi aur ko vote kaise Dena Mann Kar raha hai???
With all due respect have you guys checked on ground what is the latest about free ration. Giving Bajra & Makka in 45 degrees plus summer is horrible. This has hurt them. Marginalised section has voted for Congress. Don't know how it will transform into seats.
Namaskar ji your analysis is two hundred percent pure wrong.
Let me ask you some questions and give me reply.
How many seats are the Congress contesting? 328 seats . In this
25 Seat In AP& 40 seats in West Bengal are not counted, because there no scope in Two States.
You should consider 263 seats only. in 263 seats how many seats will you get?
God knows, how many seats will lose deposit?
Why did Rahul run away from Amethi and Wayanad?
Why were six state PCC presidents resigned?
Why are all the leaders in Congress resigning and leaving?
It would be great if Congress gets 40 to 50 seats . We will see on the fourth June . The Congress party will not get the opposition status even for the third time. Rahul is losing in two seats. Even if he wins in Vayanadu with few votes, it is doubtful. He is definitely losing in the Rayabareli. Congress won't even get a single seat from Uttar Pradesh.
What a crap of analysis, no clear direction mentioned. Any fourth grade will do similar analysis. Please don’t waste time in listening this analysis.
In UP still BJP have 60 seat only out of 80...then how it will reduce..
BJP will get only 40 seats in UP.
BJP is getting majority, ground realities not shifted massively, there is some discontent but still BJP by far ahead at least can tell you from my own experiences in Bihar today where I did cast my vote.
Even BJP is admitting that they will loose seats in karnataka, Maharastra, Bihar and Rajsthan.
if they loose 30 seats all over india, they loose majority.
@@JohnAbraham-gh6dz: they will not loose
but the supreme leader is not sounding so confident; he is changing positions rather uncomfortably! saying one thing now and denying it in the next moment?
@@jaspreetsethi2626 it depends on how many seats they loose. They are going to loose seats for sure
@@JohnAbraham-gh6dzthey never said it.
I think too much is being made of a. the revival of sorts of the regional opposition parties, and b. BJP’s allies which are considered weak in Maharashtra and Bihar; in the overall scheme of things my take is BJP - 320; it’s allies 15-20. And where will the opposition I.N.D.I.A get? 150? The INC? 50? 60? Hardly anything to get into a paroxysm, is there? My take is in WB BJP will range between 20-25, in Odisha too it might get 10-12. In UP I will be surprised if BJP drops below 70; I won’t be surprised if they manage 75/80. Social justice is a buzzword.
Whatever stament of sanajay kumar is only book reading opinion but those who have been jointly predicated form land mark will be true
Only media and rich people can say but 90 percent voters reject b jp emwr voters not want b jp voters want congres.amd india
😂😂😂
😂😂😂
Bjp will win with thumping majority
sanjay is playing in hands of INDIA bloc
In ap bjp will get zero. Tdp may get two or three. The commemtator will utterly fail in ap. Its my challenge.
The headline of your video indicates that you are out of sync with reality. Content may still be relevant, won't be watching it though
I think AP n odhisa will be king makers for both
NDA or INDIA
MARK MY WORDS NO ONE IS KLOSE TO MAJORITY
Please wait upto jine 4th
As per my political observation BJP may lose 80-100 seats.
BJP+ had 370+ seat while BJP 303 THERE IS BJD DMK can support on issue.
NDA seat projection
Phase one-- -58/102
Phase two- --62/88
Phase three --79/94
Phase four---81/96
Phase five -40/49
Total --320/380
BJP -275/380
Bjp 420/543
BJP 999
Thumping win for BJP through EVM.
In my opinion khangress number of seats will be less than 2019 election
I will not be surprised if khangress may reduce to single digit
No one senses wave before results. After results they say it was wave but hidden. Always same. Bjp will sweep.
th-cam.com/video/QjrSPLFil68/w-d-xo.htmlsi=4kXzrZod4MsHDzSK sala jhooth bol raha h
BJP will suffer very badly
In your dreams 😴 😂@@sastryrc2923