Understanding Societal Collapse with Complexity Scientist Peter Turchin
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 6 มิ.ย. 2023
- What leads to political turbulence and social breakdown? Is there any way to stop history repeating itself today? Peter Turchin has mined 10,000 years of data to find the answer.
Peter Turchin has pioneered a new science of making history predictable - by applying methods that had already succeeded in other complex fields. You'll want to know what he sees lying ahead, and what we can do about it.
In this live event, he will present a ground-breaking account of how human societies work, explaining how, when the shifting balance of power between the ruling class and the majority tips too far in favour of elites, elite overproduction leads to state breakdown. It happened in imperial China, in medieval France, in the American Civil War - and it is happening now.
#PeterTurchin #ComplexityScience #SocietalCollapse #PoliticalTurbulence #SocialBreakdown #EliteOverproduction #StateBreakdown
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So ironic to listen to the host talk about the problem while simultaneously being unaware he is an example if it.
Although I get what you're saying, I doubt he is unaware. I get the feeling he was given the directive from his boss to protect the elite that academia relies on for donations.
@@daffyf6829 Just seems like run if the mill Trump Derrangement Syndrome and Climate Cult stuff.
They are castrated and fearfull.
ah, irony.
have you considered your part in the collapse?
I get the feeling that the whole audience were Aspiring Elites
Host wrecked this talk
Wrecked like screeeeeeeech BANG
If the revolution happens this interviewer is one of the first to go.
lol
Well said
The most vanilla talk about societal collapse published these days.
Impotence at its finest. They are castrated and fearfull.
No one will bother to touch these...
@@blaeks Fear the person that has nothing left to lose, and an axe to grind, they will do any job they deem "necessary".
@@Solsys2007 true
This interviewer could easily be an advisor to our corrupt political elites. Why our society is in the sad state it is in. Honestly oblivious to their role in our societies decline. From Hope and Change which I bought into to five million people kicked out of their homes and executives keeping bonuses with taxpayer dollars. After covid worse than ever. CARES Act is latest example.
He knows damned well that mass immigration benefits wealthy elites at the expense of the native population. He knows it and doesn't care because he's a rootless globalist.
41:15 Why would we not want elites wiped out and capital appropriation?
I know, if the solution to an occurring societal collapse is to double down on climate authoritarianism, the person is obviously missing something foundational (about structural demographic theory). It is utopian thinking on par with "if everyone converted to Christianity" or "if everyone gave up their possessions an labour for a true communist state".
The way to test if an individual follows science or dogma is to ask them 'clean hands' questions (from Atran's "In Gods We Trust"): if Trump policies le to a decrease in the wealth pump as Turchin said at one point, and if that also shut off the immigration pump which may (or may not) lead to real wage growth for commoners due to labour shortage, would you support such a thing or not. The answer to that (on both sides) is why this societal collapse will not stop and hasn't yet hit bottom
Same feeling here
Sums up today’s UK in general (especially southern England)
Interviewers political biases didn’t help this flesh out interesting topic. Real shame.
Biases or poor questioning.
Agreed
Awkward interviewer. I could feel Turchin's reactions in my body. He did a great job off trying to transmit the information he wanted to though.
The interviewer ironically buys into the corrupt veneer of nonsense that current elites use to veil the wealth pumps running hotter than ever before.
It's like he's presumed the Democrats in the US or Lib-Dems/Labour in the UK are doing their best to get us out of the poly-crisis, gosh darn-it, but greedy MAGA Republicans are whipping up a white-lash.. it's like, no, these elites in the Dems especially ramping up since the Clinton admin and for longer in the UK have been breaking down the social contract with social engineering and unsustainable spending, counterproductive policy, undermining education and social capital, etc. They have much more to do with the breakdown than the populist right movements. So do the business and Neoconservative elites that captured the Republican party a long whilr ago. George Bush Senior was the director of the CIA in the 70s and his son kicked off the most recent run of US wealth pump Imperialism that Obama and Biden extended.
People have to escape blue team red team manipulation. It's the Uniparty.
Right on, like the problems didn't start with fundamental changes of law that allowed those with a different personality to enter our politic. This guy is establishment.
It’s not just competition but needed cooperation is necessary
I'm watching this in July 2023 while France burns with looting. This feels so prescient.
The French always protest. It’s just what they do and what they’ve always done. Same shit, different day
@teddybearroosevelt1847 These recent riots were not "The French."
Pull your head out of the sand.
That’s multiculturalism
I can't believe how many educated people like this interviewer still choose to believe that oligarchs mean it well and "don't conspire like a medieval king would do"...
Also: Who explains to this idiot (interviewer) that creating jobs is just a matter of political will and that the main reason why that political will is lacking it's because the oligarchs (who, as evidence suggests, own all of the Western governments) want to be the only ones who determine wages?
Oligarchs are never mean well but it seen to be an inevitable when society develop.
If one plans to upload a conversation to youtube, they should pay attention to audio production quality. Really does a disservice to the audience and the speakers
Sounds fine to me!
@@gilianrampart8514 I had to crank my speakers to hear it, I think the microphone he was holding is sub par.
I agree, I cant hold thos to my ear for an hour. I can see how their voices fade as soon as they move their hands slightly, so I think the mucs are inferior but wish they'd increased the volume. Its especially necessary with a guest with a heavy accent and talks fast intermittently and mumbles.
A sober analysis, so much a sober perspective "backed by fact" and running parallel to intuition; it gives me shivers...
read my book “Social Pandemic” - A Terminally ill Modern Society
"Absolute power corrupts absolutely." Remember the Stanford Prison Experiment 1971?
It’s a flawed experiment, influenced by the person conducting said study. Has been tried again with different results everyone was rather helpful and nice to one another.
Except that in the Stanford Prison Experiment they excluded psychopaths and sociopaths. The elite select for those traits.
Absolutely
Reminds me of the saying”Give the devil a horse and he will ride straight to hell”
Except that the Devil is a hermaphrodite.
An evolutionary process that seems a future option for us if the fertility researchers are correct. Parthenogenesis!
Good saying. Who is the devil in this argument and why is he going to hell?
Very biased interviewer.
The host keeps making value based arguments on crazy shit like net zero, just transition, policies on which are actually causing more emiseration to the poor contrary to narrative. The author smartly skirts away form affirming the implied value judgement on those nutty ideas from the host
The dominance of materially based arguments got us into the global ecological crisis that might well wipe humanity out in the long run. So value based arguments are urgently required. In a closed system, which our planet is, immiseration of the poor is only preventable by „immiseration“ of the rich.
th-cam.com/video/nvAbKE8-jYA/w-d-xo.html
His thesis probably won’t get much elite media coverage.
Most of the elites that control universities , media , banks, and libral Tribe people believe the same marxis ideas or ideals this ignorant person spaw...
You mean mainstream. Academics and their interviews and lectures are usually regarded as elites anyway, of which he's been doing a lot lately promoting his book. I'd ditch the ideologically loaded elite word, it's been overused to the point of being meaningless. Anyone with job security is an elite, but too often thats loaded up to mean a faceless enemy in control of everything.
A lot of figures and alternative left media are referencing and quoting Turchin, that's how I found him. mainstream news media also doesn't usually cover theory as need though, it covers events mostly. So I'm not sure why you're even expecting them to do that, you're just setting yourself up for disappointment. Allegedly Turchin predicted Jan 6th though, not sure if that's explicitly true yet. Not sure if CSPAN books is still around or whatever, but maybe he'll start popping up and embraced by the elites, as you would put it.
Anyway, you're expectations are too high, and your terminology loaded. The media you are talking about doesn't generally cover things like this because it's not a news event. Maybe if the book is successful he'll be featured for short interviews and clips, like the occassional academic that becomes mainstream along with current events. Or maybe it's all a big conspiracy to hide the truth from us because elites be eliting. Most people would get lost and/or resent what Turchin is presenting anyway, the masses aren't ready to self reflect or take self responsibility. It's not the illuminati we have to worry about, it's the illiterati that are so easily swayed by the winds of capital.
"Elite" media is all just propaganda.
You're so smart.
problem is affluence, not elitism.. top 25% shittin on the bottom 75%, and the 75% dont realize that 9ettin9 on the top 25%s level i unsustainable... o well
The recipeients of the wealth pumps response to the threat of pitch forks has been embracing as a facade so called woke capitalism (ESG), e.g. in western countries aggresive support of lgbtqia (whilst the same corporates completely ignoring in eastern cultures).
Exactly : CIA sponsored the Neo Marxists.
Exactly, and no one explains that better than James Lindsay
Exactly, but the whole "woke" machine has a second purpose. It also discredits the "Left", in that they have labeled it leftist and people aren't smart enough anymore to examine that.
Aggressive support for LGBTQ? We were treated like felon criminals under the law even in "liberal" Massacusetts, in my lifetime.
The ones most bringing about societal and global collapse are the gay-hating, Christian-embracing authoritarians like Vladimir Putin, who constantly threatens nuclear war, disrupts global grain supplies, kills hundreds of thousands, creates orphans, Same for Trump, who calls global warming a "hoax", while unprecedented climate disasters are occurring around the globe, and called covid a "hoax" before it killed over a million Amercans.
You can try to scapegoat gays, just like Christian professional bigots have tried to blame gays for hurricanes, earthquakes and 9/11. But your collapse is mostly due to your own choices, Your collapse, in the eyes of a gay man, is fully your just deserts. I no longer dream of real justice, or to change you, or to try to make friends with people like you, All that is left is a desire to watch your bigoted ilk fall into the mass graves that you've been digging for yourselves.
For me, this kind of thought plugs right in with Eric Hoffer's, "The True Believer". That said, I am also pleasantly surprised yet refreshed at the poignancy of the questions, and with the simple yet precise language used to really illustrate the ideas Turchin shares. I always appreciate well thought out communication with a sincere yet empirical human being, especially if said human being is a bona fide expert.
The early 70s is when we lost real money. Its not a coincidence. Fiat money puts the cantilon effect on steroids.
Precious metal currency was an improvement to granary based currency because gold doesn't rot or get consumed. Paper money representing precious metals was an improvement to precious metal coins because it can't be split or shaved or otherwise reduced. Fiat currency is an improvement on precious metal based currency because it is way more efficient and less costly than storing, securing, maintaining and transporting precious metals.
@@daffyf6829Fiat money cannot be split or shaved, it can be created out of thin air. Are you taking a piss?
@daffyf6829
Simply isn't enough physical PMs to back world money and grow like the world did and use it for industry also.
@@daffyf6829Currency without backing is no improvement. If currencies can be created out of thin air they will be, and have been. Have you seen the balance sheets?
@@gcanaday1 fiat currency is backed by the nation's productivity, which is definitely something. It's basically a standardized bartering system. More importantly, it scales effortlessly with population growth and infrastructure investment and is resistant to outside influence (see Mansa Musa's effect on gold prices during his pilgrimage. See also the inflation of the California gold rush).
Lastly, it's easy to maintain and control. Some people see this as a bad thing, and I agree with the concern to an extent. It doesn't take much irresponsibility from a Nation's banking system to throw a wrench into the whole thing (see Zimbabwe). To me, the benefits far outweigh the risks though.
Good analogy ..more & more players scrambling for fewer and fewer chairs, removing not one but several chairs each round ...
It's gonna get physical fast.
Increases in wages & social security need to be indexed to inflation, or it's useless.
That seems to make sense so I have to ask why they haven't been indexed to inflation (and things like COLAs have been removed). The obvious answer for me is that to index these things to inflation means less profit is there to extract with the "wealth pump"
@@dinnerwithfranklin2451
I have to say, I think you're right.
Here in Us Reagan and Friedman unleashed greed. It became law in some states and practice in the entire country that corporations have only one command. More money for stockholders. Simultaneously companies dropped pensions. 70 million boomers were chained to this model. Today their retirements are nearly 100% dependent on corporate dividends, splits etc. This group, my group, are following Mr Turchin's iron law! We want more more more. More houses vacations clothes jewelry and on and on. Our stocks can never drop. We invest more in risky businesses. Insider trading is now normalized. We well off rarely if ever have tax audits. All as we spew 51 billion tons of greenhouse gases pollution into our shared atmosphere while doing deep damage to the biosphere which is the source of all life.
“The glorification of greed” , I’d say was the start…
Yes, Reagan and Friedman are the ones responsible for human beings being greedy. There was no sign of this greed until they arrived on the scene. 🙄
Greed is in every persons heart, I know it is in mine! When is it enough?
@@thewrightoknow Couldn't disagree more, greed is produced thru ideology. We could easily set up a society whereby greed was not a dominant attribute at all.
@@gordonpepper1400 I think the heart of man throughout the history of mankind is self evident that selfishness is in every person, even those who think not.
Wow all our issues just happen to be related to solutions that involve giving the government more money!
You mean giving rich people more money?
You mean more taxes?
Unfortunately that seems to be true. The only time in U.S. history, and one of the few times in world history such massive wealth inequality has been reversed without mass violence was the Progressive Era after the Gilded Age.
If you're the 1%, then yes.
Government is the creator of it own currency. Government debt is sovereign debt and can be spent directly into circulation. Demand for government money debt, is created by it must be used to pay your taxes. Private banks inflate the currency through fractional reserve lending. Lending what they don't have at interest, and the interest, the loan principal was never actually created. The private banks collect actual created hard currency in loan payments. Money for nothing total controle for free. Federal reserve bank is a private bank originally for profit until most American people took gi bill loans and went directly into debt to the private banks. There is a whole history to how we got here they don't want you to know. I can't teach it in a chat. So do your self a favor stfu until you understand the debt based economic system. Your government doesn't need to barrow money its a sovereign. NY banks wanted 40% interest to fight the civil war. Lincoln simply printed 500 million in greenbacks fought and won the Civil War with it. Read!!!
Did he turn on his microphone. Cant these clever people manage to produce good sound quality?
It is a rule of relativity. As intellect increases sound quality decreases.
That point in the 70s Turchin speaks about is us getting off the gold standard.
Wow! Stop lecturing and let the man talk!
That was the sort of conversation that requires time to digest. Thank you.
I suggest taking a mental laxative. 😏
@@paulheydarian1281 Is that what you used to shit your brain out? 😁
It is telling that these ideas are new to you. The question you really need to ask is who owns our political infrastructure and how do we implement democracy more democratically?
6:16 What are you doing trying to rewrite history? Get your facts straight you lying $#@%
Not only are they not new, they are dilluted to appeal to what seems to be a lefty audience. Demographics and other important factors left out.
The only time in human history that working class people had upward social mobility was under the threat of communism. We need a true left political party to remind them of the alternative.
I was not sure that there was anyone left who had that insight. Bingo. It is the wealthy who most fear Marxism and communism, the real reason being that they simply don't want their stashes, good life, and ill-gotten gains touched. The little people are suckers for the rich man's propaganda, so work against their own class interests, But capitalism, in addition to waging vicious, no-holds-barred open war and covert war on anything to the left of Reagan, also has had to make concessions to the little people, precisely to ward off the chance of their being seduced by the Marxist siren song.
You're both very wrong.
They are those who push for the left, because they are those who can fund or defund, and thus control it. It is the situation in the West *now*.
It has been and will forever be used as the hammer on its flags.
Interviewer doesn't want to lose his seat at aspirant chairs
Ask the 1000s of tech employees fired how that employer concern is working out.
The workers became obsolete. That’s why they became obsolete. Like the flight engineer and navigator in an airline cockpit.
A corporation’s primary responsibility is returning shareholder value. Plain and simple. Instead of fighting it, own shares in companies with growing revenue and improving margins.
The US and the UK are the best examples.
Daniel Schmachtenberger's Consilience Project is a quite good place to start in this conversation.....
Shout out to the Schmack! He makes this guy look like an eager high school student. I've only watched the first ten minutes of this video, and am done with it. Yes, some of my hesitancy is because of his heavy accent, but he's not really getting into any juicy meat and potatoes. Ten minutes of the Schmack and I was hooked; have since watched several hours of his talks.
@@tarico4436you are strange
You know the "activists" who throw paint on priceless Rembrandts? That's this interviewer.
We are conflating definitions of elites.
1. those who contribute on high levels, because they are educated, knowledgeable, inspiring, and have talent of leadership. Practically a benign meritocracy.
2. those who have money and power, and their power is a result of networking and meddling with human communication, for instance control over media by ownership structures and advertising schemes.
I know highly capable Silicon Valley engineers who are great capable people but their ideas are so out their that they can help nobody
I'm not sure that conflation is accidental.
@@adriankovac1943 no doubt, but can you give us a name or an exmple?
All they mean by elites are people who have alot of money and social position, standing or power.
Turchin mentions the elites fighting each other… which got my excited for the Musk and Zuckerberg pay per view cage match. Woot
6:19 that’s not what happened at all but the created media reaction by the ruling elite is exactly what Peter is referring to
What if that's what the ruling media elite want your to believe?
That’s why I don’t think the sky is that bright, cause he could not see through the propaganda.
Audio Quality?
Omg, Chris Hedges has been telling us this for 15 years, it’s time to act now, Jesus, Mary and Joseph!
Interlocutor was asking some good questions but yes it was awkward. Turchin is a genius
Sure, if plagiarizing Marx makes him a genius, yes, he is.
Interlocutor is obtuse
I’m old enough to remember when priests were the “scientists” of the apocalypse.
Priests didn’t give us computers, medicine, space flight, etc
It’s a pity you can’t see the benefit of the scientific method and can only go as far as ‘I like/don’t like it’.
@@NapoleonGelignite They kiiiind of did though. There would be no science without the work of Catholic and Muslim members of religious orders in the Middle Ages. I’m not going to list the priests in the modern era who made deep contributions to the enlightenment.
Anyway, the irony is that you’re the small minded person who is putting words in my mouth and fabricating a straw man. I made no comment about the scientific method. I was commenting on eschatological thinking, which is what a lot of climate change discussion is. Anyone with an understanding of the history of thought can see the straight line going from Greta Thunberg to Noah’s Ark. You’re clearly just another internet NPC who wants me to be some sort of Republican denier of everything. A boring and heavily unscientific presumption. Bye.
@@NapoleonGelignite that's not what he said. He said protests used to be the ones delivering apocalypse speeches, the 'scientists' of apocalypse.
now it is programmers!
@@GeorgeTsiros - you seem ok with programmers making your phone useful. You should go back to chalk and blackboards.
Offshoring should have been made illegal long ago.
This is one of the big ones. I haven't looked at other countries, it's probably similar, but for US and UK, supposedly there's enough money off shore they belongs in the respective systems and economies they the interest payments alone on that wealth are the entire tax base of the two nations. Our governments and our people have been robbed blind, and there's an air of complicity everywhere, it's why we seemingly can't reappropriate those funds.
But, but.... Freedumb!
Countries with parliaments (representative democracy) are in fact oligarchies (few lead). In order to be a true democracy, the decisions of the Parliament should be submitted to the approval of the citizens. The "fatigue" of democracy occurs when there is a big difference between the interests of those elected and the voters, so people lose confidence in the way society function. As a result, the poor and desperate citizens will vote with whoever promises them a lifeline, i.e. the populists or demagogues. The democratic aspect is a side effect in societies where economies have a strong competitive aspect, where the interests of those who hold economic power in society are divergent. Thus, those with money, and implicitly with political power in society, are supervising each other so that none of them have undeserved advantages due to politics. Because of this, countries with large mineral resources, like Russia and Venezuela (their share in GDP is large), do not have democratic aspects, because a small group of people can exploit these resources in their own interest. In poor countries, the main resource exploited may even be the state budget, as they have converging interests in benefiting, in their own interest, from this resource. This is what is observed in Romania, Bulgaria, when, no matter which party comes to power, the result is the same. The solution is modern direct democracy in which every citizen can vote, whenever he wants, over the head of the parliamentarian who represents him. He can even dismiss him if most of his voters consider that their interests are not right represented.
Those who think that democracy is when you choose someone to make decisions for you without him having to consult you, are either a fool or a scoundrel. It's like when you have to choose from several thieves who will steal from you. It's like when you have to build a house and you choose the site manager and the architect, but they don't have the duty to consult with you. The house will certainly not look the way you want it, but the way they want it, and even more surely you will be left without money and without the house. It is strange that outside of the political sphere, you will not find, in any economic or sports activity, someone elected to a leadership position and who has failure after failure and who is fired only after 4 years. We, the voters, must be consulted about the decisions and if they have negative effects we can dismiss them at any time, without to wait until the term to be fulfilled, because we pay, not them. In any company, the management team comes up with a plan approved by the shareholders. Any change in this plan must be re-approved by the shareholders and it is normal because the shareholders pay.
I so much agee with your comment. But…
As with popularism where politicians will say anything to get to power, people tend to vote for short term gains. Is that all good? Since the world around u dont work that way the direct democratic model wont provide for long time planning that is needed to always make sure your society is not taken over by another state that on long term plans to conquer more land and resources including the place where u live.
Looks like we humans cant figure out a model that works long term and even if we could we dont seem to be able to stick to such a model over time.
And we are only human, humans apear with different driving aspirations and tend to use whatever model from marxism to democarcy to justify their personal gain.
Think of elitist, Ivy League and exclusive colleges. I would submit that tech-elite and the coupling of concentrated media are catalyst to a post-dystopia culture/society. Couple that with AI/ML systems that will reduce free will and will accelerate pre-determined social engineers. "Things are getting weird. "😅
GO BUCKS!
Fortunately, free will does not exist.
Hate that the interviewer dragged the level of discourse down so low with his own narrow political worldview.
Wealthiest nations bring about a feel good factor with reduction of social discord. Economic decline tends to signify a collapse of social intergration. The antagonism towards immigrants increases and family ties can weaken. But, the solution does not lie in economic prosperity in fact it destroys the natural world, increases social disparities around the world and spoiling the harmony between ethnic groups because we denude natural resources. Blaming Russia and China will ultimately denigrate relations and trust and only bring warfare. Capitalism relies upon a endless supply of resources which the Western empires have enjoyed for many centuries but the halcyon days are finished and in a civilised world we should be sharing resources and consuming less. Poverty is natural but suffering is unwelcome. Boxing in ethnic groups into economic ghettos is not a solution as it will break the link between us and our natural world. Some nations are too wealthy enriched by centuries of exploitation of nature. If I can survive on a tea cake then why not another? Greed and self worship has undermind compassion and realities of our impact on a finite resource. We need to live in smaller communities which survive through local resources but do not desire wealth but a rational essential to life on earth. 29:02
Thank you 👏
Ecological overshoot, resource depletion, population, bio physical economics..put them in the mix.. energy is key to explaining our past /future trajectory..
50 years of oil reserves left and 100 years of uranium left, and still limited resources and ability to access renewables at scale. The dystopian future is a bit scary to say the least.
So is the corporate hostile buyout of the global political system.
New energy sources will do very little to benefit the "lower classes" since this new energy will only be controlled by elites. Same with any technology. It doesn't help all unless it is free from elite control.
Wow all our issues just happen to be related to solutions that involve giving the government more money!
@@subcitizen2012 50 years of oil reserves
says who ? Iraq alone is using few of the oil fields and majority are unused and are closed after the 2003 democracy installation by western nations. Iran Venezuela is sanctioned with 3 or 4 largest oil reserves.Giant reserves in Kazakhstan and Caspian basin, where did you find the information of 50 years ?
There is not enough copper to "transition" to Green dream.
I hope that the man's book is more clear than his spoken thoughts. 😢
Spoken thoughts are only ever as clear as the mind that receives them.
Yes, the main impression I came away with is that society may soon collapse under the weight of its academic fads.
@@bradleyholland4881true, but intelligibility of the message matters. Internal coherence. You can also have 2 intelligent minds who can't connect despite competent messaging. Extreme example: one speaks modern English only, the other one Old Anglo Saxon English only
@@jtzoltan your example is not extreme, it is absurd because such an example doesn’t exist in reality. And who said that intelligibility doesn’t matter?
@@bradleyholland4881or the mouth thats speaks them
In fairness he speaks wirha. Jeavy accent a loap and speaks wirh an odd cadance. Its not exactly weird that somone would find his speech difficult to comprehend.
It's predictable criminality that the closed caption regularly replaces "immiseration"with "immigration"
Recent US industrial policy is driving innovation and market creation to boost fundamental economic productivity over the coming decades. Too many people are focusing on the renewable energy provisions, and ignoring the economic potential of hydrogen and advanced nuclear power. This new industrial revolution will create an abundant sustainable economy. Excess abundance can be used to provide a generous universal basic income, so full employment is not necessary for social stability.
This new policy is among the most important in history, and if political stability can be maintained and the provisions properly shepherded by devoted stewards, the windfall in wealth will be unbelievable. We should start seeing an explosion in growth within a decade when the new technology begins to rapidly scale. Once it gets going, it will be a lot easier to decarbonize the rest of the planet.
To raise the planet out of poverty, we can start by trying to double energy per capita to the level of Western Europe, which will increase the global economy from around $100 trillion to somewhere between $200-300 trillion. Cheap sustainable power will enable mass recycling, universal air conditioning and heating, mass desalination, and even carbon capture to reduce the atmospheric concentration of CO2 back down to pre-industrial levels.
There is no certainty that the energy transition will happen in time. Political and social instability can give rise to empires as opposed to the economic integration of democracies. Climate tipping points could take warming to a point where it becomes self-sustaining, despite the decarbonization of industry. Hotheaded maniacs could open Pandora’s box by using nuclear weapons in desperation and revenge.
You don't "undo this"
You endure it
Few minutes in I realised the stark politicial bias and switched off
The moderator's mic is way too loud compared to Turchin. Whoever was responsible for the audio should be fired.
Gonna be really interesting to see what all the new immigration to the United States does to the working class
We need immigrants; wages are too low for inflation increasing. Corporate America is trying to stay alive on the backs of their workers. 😢
We need more immigrants for our capitalism to grow so we can revenue out of debt. 60 million willing immigrants worldwide, and no reason for them not to come except for racism and xenophobia. Barring their entry is part of the reason the foot of our future is getting shot off. Or we can keep devolving into a nationalist diet fascism that blames other ethnicities and culture for our problems.
US immigration has a strategy to it like it or not - as long as the US manages to succesfully "integrate" immigrants succesfully it is what keeps the American hegemony sustainable. Otherwise, USA would have been on demographic decline like rest of Europe and Asia with a lot of older people and few young workers
@@kirstinstrand6292 immigrantion to the US encourages population and society depletion of the nations of emmigration. the people lose out except those exploiting all this for profit and power. not a good policy
With AI handling all of the service jobs we won’t have much of a need for unskilled voters any more. Could be a tricky situation as we may have to go back to importing doctors and lawyers.
Oh joy. At the interviewer's blatant misinformation regarding Jan 6 2021, I stopped watching.
Well, let us hold. Our goals are not net 0. That doesn’t produce the energy is jacks up energy costs, and it’s damaging to the firemen.
Interesting discussion
Another thought, I think his method is great to inform the present, but it doesn't help to inform what we could build in the future.
He's using historical data which can only help us understand the present. That data can't really tell us what we can do. That's what human imagination is for.
The key part of the issue at stake for humanity is the privilege far too many people assume is their right because they're have sufficient quantity of what ever passes for the legal medium of exhange to effectively destroy the biosphere. Here wecome up against criminal abuse of laws, treaties, people, planet and other life forms. We can't even get ecocide written into the treaty of Rome. Meanwhile we have eloquence everywhere in talks like this, and it's very likely all listening are a part of this extractive criminal class. Perhaps it's in our nature, yet we tell ourselves we are the clever species? But clearly not clever enough by a long way
Talk to some lawyers - the law bosses definitely wan to immiserate the lower strata. Literally, and not accidentally!
Sounds like Marx describing Historical Materialism. Dude was really ahead of his time
Youth - Revolution - War
In our time we have lots of tricks in place
Youth is being lured into new crusades, hypermoralistic education, so they don't revolt against elite but fight on behalf of elite. There are reports about the voluntary mercenaries for Ukraine, Palki Sharma had a report about the training camps with interviews. It showed eliticist ideology and hypermorality among them.
Arab Spring had a problem that no one seems to understand. First, it was gaslighted by the Facebook algorithm, they overestimated themselves. Second, in every extended family in Egypt and other countries there is a policeman and a higher military person. They have good reputation in their families, other than in the West. They took over the situation on the ground and in the families, and after some difficulty, youth lined up behind them again.
So many absurd and unhelpful questions asked. Why?
Is min wage a good way to turn off the pump? I think rather it just shifts the allocation of the available wage pool.
Tax the rich. That or eat them.
Really great conversation, however I'm confused as to how speakers can both talk about a coming collapse yet repeatedly endorse the policies of one of the two corporate political parties as the solution?
Not disagreeing with Turchin's "wealth pump" proposition, but I guess because he is a social scientist rather than an economist, and more aware of industrial capitalism because of his age and background, he only recognises @9:50 the falling proportion of wages relative to productivity since the 1970's as the means whereby money is "pumped" from workers to employers. He doesn't mention the parallel massive rise in financial capitalism, causing household debt to both make falling wages possible without crashing the economy (since aggregate demand = wages +new credit), and to grow to be the biggest part of the pump- from household income to bank's shareholders.
thanks for this amazing and great,,,but you guys could call this "The Weatlh Pump" instead of Understanding Societal Collapse with Complexity Scientist Peter Turchin,,,maybe you will excerpt the highlights and change the title,,, not complaining love it, but showbiz works for a reason,,,thanks again
Did you forget to turn the microphones on?
An interesting analysis. Only, I find it incomplete fot various reasons. So do you really think you are going to help when you are yourselves a part of the problem?
The chairman trying to defend the wealth elites by saying they are just passively and inadvertently enjoying the flow of wealth upwards was a very weird moment
He must enjoy hanging out with rich people 🤠💵💶💷💴🤑
WE allow the elite to exist. WE permit them to amass such wealth. They are playing a game and we PLAY ALONGA
As is the generation of leaves, so to of men:
At one time the wind shakes the leaves to the ground
but then the flourishing woods
Gives birth, and the season of spring comes
into existence;
So it is with the generations of men, which
alternately come forth and pass away.
-Homer, The Illiad, Book Six
This guy's great! I've listened to several of his talks.
ETR !!
The presenter however could not be more full of shit. Everything he said was a repetition of old views and arguments which are nothing more than propaganda. How do people like him live with themselves. Oh I forgot, they have no conscience.
Any recommendations?
time for the pitchforks
Everything traditionally revolves around the distribution of capital, the availability of public goods and opportunities for enrichment for the general population....heh..the French loved their king Louis very much..and when he started doing everything wrong...he was chopped into fine minced beef. .and fed to stray dogs...
Less than 10 minutes before biases started showing.
Love the bottle of vodka right there on the table. Honesty.
Marketing
Seize the means of production, deterrence, and automation. Replace the elites with a federated AI system.
Honest measures, gold money honest results. Dishonest measures, credits, debts, crypto, pixels, digits, and of course we collapse.
How is wealth pump was opened ? in 1971 ? closing gold window going on a printing press to print all the money in the world.
That's how the Money sucking pump was switched on.
Be nice if I could hear it.
5:56 oligarch narrative, supported by interviewer. A better analysis would the typical counter insurgency insurgency tactics of fascistic systems: Hitler's rise to power; the Azov battalion killing both sides during the US led Maidan uprising; the collusion of oligarchs to stage the 1/6 episode - that fooled many people. These acts of violence make people crave a police state, and creates a frightened and submissive populus. The day of the inauguration tanks rolled into Syria and the profiteers from the killing machine were comfortably back in power.
The international nature of the world's plutocracy means that the collapse of countries is no longer based on nationalist power struggles. The élite have no loyalty to any particular country - it now is truly a globe spanning small cartel of the ultra rich and powerful, many of whom i'm sure we don't know by name
Important contradiction is the nation-based character of imperialist exploitation and national military industrial complex.
Well said
It’s all to do with the money. The wealth pump is facilitated by fiat and cantilion effect. Hard money standard would only allow elites to be generated via merit.
That has never been true.
@@annoloki The whole concept that this gentleman is complaining about is a wealth pump from seeking credentials without adding value to broader society. Look at James Watt. He discovered half of thermodynamics as an instrument maker. He applied his knowledge to create steam engines. That is what the elites should be doing. To some degree it happens in Silicon Valley. But politics and corporate credentials cuts off people with high barriers to entry and is funded with fiat.
Bitcoin fixes this
I googled it and got a bunch of conspiracy theory websites. Please state an example of how lowering the interest rate benefits specifically the richest in society.
@@Ikbeneengeit Artificially low interest rates primarily benefit the wealthiest in society through a number of means. Firstly, they can easily access cheap borrowing, enabling them to fund substantial investments and expand their wealth. Secondly, as asset values rise due to increased demand, the wealthy, who often hold significant investments in scarce assets like real estate and stocks, see their wealth grow further. Thirdly, they can refinance high-interest loans at lower rates, reducing expenses and freeing up capital for more investments.
Abridged version? :)
Yes, I really like the idea of renaming sociology into complexity science. :D
On target
සුරේන්ද්ර Covid කාලයේදී අපේ architecture undergraduates ලාට ඉතා වැඩදායක වැඩමුළුවක් කරා.
'pioneer in the science of predicting... ' : man, Asimov decribed this decades ago, psycho history, and insurance companies and share traders are using this (complex systems/non liners systyems) since the 50's. I appreciate the talk though, (been waiting for his kind of conscience to emerge and it is reassuring to 'not feel I may be mad') but it is faint and weak in its conclusions.
cliodynamics rests on the notion that h. sap. has underlying principles of action, maybe so, and we can use them to shape society.
nope.
the drivers of human society may well be simple, but generally not responsive to logic, or justice, or even self-preservation.
There is a human nature that is determined by our biology. Becauae of this shared human nature, humans tend on a societal level react in recurring ways. The reactions are not exactly the same, because culture also influences things, but nevertheless you can deduce predictable actions from this. It is just that we have denied this reality and have been living under the dogma of tabula rasa.
48:50 We no longer need elites in the sense he means. His perspective is good but limited by his presuppositions.
What to do about collapse @homestead ranger
Thank you youtube algo god.
Shame the recording level was so off it was unintelligable .
@12.00 - 13.35 ffs guys! it's financialisation of the economy!!
Perhaps trade stuff for stuff until the monetary system adjusts?
It has been well established that cultural shifts can drive changes in politics and vice versa. Something drove the 1960s counterculture and use of and promotion of illegal drugs.
All of these things are driven by wealthy banking tycoons who fund both sides of political debates and the formation of laws through huge lobbyist efforts. Often the tycoons have long ago already written legislation, and are shopping around for which paid-off politician can put their name to it. These are called yesmen.
Tycoons fund political movements and public relations campaigns and research into psychology involving the use of drugs--psychiatry.
Bankers who offer deals to certain businessmen enable those businessmen to become multi-billionaire tycoons who go on to strongly influence the direction taken in a nation. Two groups of men strongly influenced education--Rockefeller dynasty and Carnegie Foundation. Through education monopolies, they changed the practice of medicine. They funded a fake study that shut down their competition by closing all medical schools that were not teaching their brand or kind of medicine. They then made medical practice a monopoly by compelling the government to issue licenses to practice.
They funded Marxism, women's liberation, war, and anti-war sentiments. They wanted to change society worldwide by doing these things everywhere.
Wall Street lawyers who worked for tycoons' business firms founded the OSS and then the CIA which were involved in subversive spy agency activities.
Influential powerful people are invited to join secret societies with secret extremely serious oaths. These are the Luciferian Free Masonic groups. They then funded both sides of the Marxism movement.
You see, a poor person can do NOTHING, but a banking tycoon can orchestrate all kinds of things by driving a nation into a HUGE debt by instigating endless wars, income taxes, collection of taxes, the funding crooked yesmen politicians, loosening and tightening monetary policies that can drive political unrest by causing boom and bust cycles of poverty.
Pawns and puppets who act on their behalf--useful idiots, dupes, and patsies.
Two factions within the same tycoon dynasty can uplift and put down a popular Marxism uprising such as MLK and the civil rights movement. One side allowed MLK to rise, and the other side got away with assassinating him while showing him to have been a pastor who numerously had extramarital affairs with groups of ladies cheating on his unfortunate wife and family--hardly a moral compass to be emulated.
Some of this is outlined in the various films of G. Edward Griffin--The Capitalist Conspiracy, etc.
Each war had consequences that ended up being the purpose of the war in the first place. Many of these wars were concerning Marxism which has never worked ever. The Bolsheviks were supported by banking tycoons in Europe and the USA. Prof. Dr. Antony C. Sutton wrote books and produced talks about how money can be traced as originating from people who had a revolutionary spirit and who had bottomless pockets of money that were made to happen by strongly influencing international law formation that in turn triggered the starting and ending of wars and revolutions all over the world.
The money managers of tax-exempt charitable foundations have long funded Marxism according to a 1972 series of lectures by the author of None Dare Call It Conspiracy--Gary Allen whose talks were supported by the very factions that Gary Allen was trying to expose as corrupted--JBS--the John Birch Society that was in part funded by one faction of the Rockefeller dynasty.
Various political movements including Marxism promote globalism that simplifies the banking tycoons' ability to seize total world control which was their aim starting thousands of years ago.
Follow the money.
See
--> "none dare call it conspiracy" TH-cam 2012 "federalexpression"
This TH-cam creator has a large number of various lectures in a large playlist. Watch them all, but keep an open mind that there is even more to everything said.
Your comment should be pinned at the top.
Great conversation, GREAT information.
I don't agree that we need the elites. That may be true in organized society, but I no longer want that.
We don’t need elites for organised society.
@@atticustay1 id like to find out.
It's semantics. You are going to have to have some people running things. Once you have that, you have elites. Call it what you want.
This line of thinking is a sign of revolution. There are always elites and hierarchies in society. No such thing as a utopia where everyone contributes to decisionmaking and leadership equally and everyone receives the same amount of wealth and resources. Last I heard they tried that in the Soviet Union and communist China, and ended back into an oligarchy where a few elites controlled all once more, and killed tens of millions to get there. Even in nature there are always hierarchies in every animal group. You may not want it but it is a law of nature and cannot be avoided, only tweaked
😎
SF Chronicle
Here's a quick primer on what's wrong and what to do about it.
ALL fiat currency is debt, that's the only way the Fed makes it, whether through government bondage note, or private bank loans.
Bankers have developed four practices that
are unsustainable and catastrophic.
If we dont understand the causes of a problem we will address the symptoms or actors, not the causes.
1st. Large private and Central banks have obtained the Exclusive franchise to create ALL new Currency as Debt, at interest.
An increasing population needs an increase in currency, but it is ALL created as a debt to the Central Bank, bearing interest.
This indebts the whole world, every person, every government, in totally unpayable debts, ( because where can the interest come from) enslaving us all to bankers through personal debt or ever increasing oppressive and unjust taxation, permits, licences, registrations, regulations, rates, duties, fees, fines, levies, surcharges, adinfinitum, of which an increasing volume goes straight to the debt creators, who created it for free. (At zero cost to themselves.)
2nd. Because of the first fault, (wherein a Central bank has the Exclusive franchise to create ALL new money,) and they attach interest to it, (which they do not create) they must continually create more currency to pay the interest on the last round of debts and to resupply liquidity as debt repayments suck the currency they created out of the national economy.
The volumes of the booms and busts are totally unnatural and the economy should follow population growth.
Inflation, (or rather, devaluation through deliberate currency oversupply,) is intentional and destructive to all but the rich. There is virtually no limitation on fiat currency creation.
Adding to this is fractional reserve banking wherein private banks effectively create massive new Currency volumes, (but its onky temporary because it's all debt) blowing bubbles (in housing/CRE/stocks) which devalues everyone's savings, work, 401k & pension, by raising all prices.
We call this inflation, but it's really devaluation of your savings, time, work.
Shrinkflation further adds to our reduction and desolation.
(Did you know the only time our society gets some real new Currency ? It's when someone goes bankrupt and can't repay the banks what they borrowed. )
The fix ? The first step is to end Central Banks and return to Sound Metalic Money.
This will slow the rate of currency creation and make it much more difficult to devalue our wages and savings by currency 'printing.'
The 2nd step would be to legislate that banks publish their reserve ratio. So if they have $100 million on their books in deposits, and $50 million in loans, that's a 50% reserve ratio. We could legislate a reserve ratio, and by openly publishing this people can choose the risk level they are willing to take.
This will change banking and we need to change banking, because it is destructive. The banks wont be able to make as much, and that's a good thing.
We need to make money anything the people want, but legal tender must meet Metalic standards under the office of weights and measures, and national and state treasury departments and mints could produce and release real intrinsic value Money.
This will not create inflation like some bankers/economists would have you think.
It is not who creates currency that drives the Constant devaluation of your work & money, it is THE VOLUME per population/ productivity.
The banks increased the base currency supply by over 65 % since March 2020 & 300% since 2008. This was multiplied as deposits were rolled back into cheap real estate loans creating bubbles, which further lever up equity to back more loans.
You can't spend it off planet, and we've had no increase in population or productivity. How can it not devalue our savings, wages and retirement funds by a similar % as it enters the economy ?
3rd problem. Fiat currency whether paper OR DIGITAL has no intrinsic value, thus it cannot be used as a long term store of value, particularly in an ever expanding fiat system. Taxation and the 'legal' currency label attached to fiat creates artificial demand for fiat currency.
The fix ?
Return to Silver, Gold, Copper & Nickle currency, designated by weight, not cents/dollars. These will find their own local value. These can't be printed to oblivion, have intrinsic value, and are a safeguard against bankers counterfeiting. Continue to keep the manufacture of Gold & Silver rounds by private mints & foundries to help keep government mints honest.
Do not allow bankers and economists of the current system to con you into believing there isn't enough Metalic Money. You float its value, mint it by grams and ounces and you have a Gold and Silver backed currency. Same with Copper & Nickle. Mint 10th ounce, 2 10ths, 5 10ths and 1 ounce and grams in 1 grams, 2 grams, 5 & 10 grams. Never give it a 'value number,' which is a lie. Give it its weight & purity, and let the market decide what it will buy. Call it 'slow money," like 'slow food.' It's slower for sure, but it's 10 times better for you.
Probably necessary to nationalise mines & pay shareholders out in metals. We are aiming at a more just, more perfect union, and that requires we treat shareholders justly and make them whole while preserving a mining and exploration industry. So gently, thoughtfully, carefully on this one.
4th. The 'World Bank' and IMF are your friendly international arms of the Federal Reserve, who loan worthless US currency invented at zero cost to enslaved nations of people to purchase necessities, when their own commodities or worthless currency would do just as well. This ensures the indebtedness of nation's simply to survive.
Correct these 4 Principles and >80 % of a nation's problems would disappear.
Do not allow your masters the Debt slave creator's to tell you it can't be done. They are not seeking your best interests, but theirs. It is easily done.
Beware. The FED, IMF, WEF wants you totally enslaved with Digital currency. Convert your garbage fiat currency into Gold and Silver or prepare for destruction.
Come to think of it, you better prepare for destruction anyway, because humans are animals and always learn the hard way.
The bankers motto is : 'Preserve your Capital at all costs.' The bankers are buying Gold. We the people can afford Silver.
Good luck.
Societal collapse is imagined. 💓
Last year I wrote a book titled “Social Pandemic” - A Terminally ill Modern Society
Go now, and die in whatever way seems best to you - Lord Denethor, Steward of Gondor.