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Russia will dominate once The Northeast Passage opens up. Europe is already dependent with oil/gas plus many other goods with Russia and now they'll be dependent on shipping to the East as well.
Your statistics regarding the gas dependency are misleading. For example out of total energy production in Finland gas takes only 6%. Your statistics only show how much of that is bought from Russia.
When talking about the dependence of Europe on Russian gas, it is important to mention that GERMANY INTENTIONALLY ELIMINATED A VITAL SOURCE OF ENERGY when it shut down its nuclear plants. If all of Europe had as much nuclear power as France, this discussion would be completely different.
Nuclear power is a hotbutton issue. In theory, everyone is kind of ok with it. In practice no one wants it anywhere nearby. Local protests of people living anywhere near a nuclear plant make it politically toxic. I can kind of see their point. Basically, people have lost faith in the safety of nuclear power after the Fukashima disaster and forced their politicians to stop using it. Is that smart? Well no not really, but I wouldn't want to live near a nuclear power plant either. Though I'd be ok with it if it was used somewhere else, somewhere far far away. If everyone thinks that way, it doesn't get built.
@@zenopath1 I agree with you mostly, but I have a nuclear power plant nearby and I'm glad it's there. That one plant delivers half of the power that is generated in my state, without producing significant carbon emissions. Fukushima and Chernobyl were both designed in the 60's. After 60 years of more experience, the new designs are far safer. Unfortunately, most people are not well informed about new nuclear technology or how radiation woks in general. And of course, there will always be people against anything that seems unnatural, even if it means the planet will choke on carbon dioxide.
As a finnish resident, I think you should point out that yes all of our gas comes from Russia but that isn't a problem at all since gas is only used in really specific small sectors of the industry and not for heating homes or critical infrastructure. Russia restricting gas to Finland would have little to no impact on anything here - the country which suffers most from Russian gas politics is Germany.
Russian:- You don't join NATO or we'll attack you 😡 Ukraine:- We're joining NATO so you don't attack us 🥶 Russia: Builds up over 100k trooper around Ukraine Russia: "We don't want war, stop overreacting."
When the USSR collapsed, there were nuclear missiles left in Ukraine and Kazakhstan. But a year or two later, both countries made a deal with the Russian Federation and voluntarily gave their nukes up. I remember thinking at the time, "They're gonna regret this." I take no pleasure in being right about that.
@Tony Soprano 'They got Billions of Dollar for the Nukes from Europe and America. " sadly - nope. Budapest memorandum was heavily critisised inside in Ukraine 90-s because nukes were gave up for free and for weakly declarised promises. Plus there were many tactical small radius nukes, those need no codes.
@Tony Soprano However the cores could have been removed from the missiles and put in new ones which Ukraine controlled. I know the west didn't want any more proliferation in who had nukes, but just having a few of them might have ensured Ukraine's future independence from Russia.
Ukraine gave up it’s nukes under tremendous pressure from the US, EU and Russia. Washington and Brussels promised billion in aid and Russia went so far as to guarantee it would not attack Ukraine if Ukraine gave up the nukes.
It's the 1st March and wow. So much has changed in less than 2 weeks. Would love to see follow up to assess how all these cards from Putin and NATO that have played out. The EU is almost underwriting Ukraine's war which could potentially get funded by frozen Russian assets of they get seized
Regardless of who wins it is the people that suffers.... Those in power as well as the elites might be able to endure sanctions but the ordinary people will pay the price of the conflict.
That's true to a point. There is a line that could be crossed where thousands or millions of people will no longer tolerate losing money because of other people's dicisions
@@douglassantet647 2014 is because greedy European firms especially Germans are still working around sanctions. this time they will be sweeping and will hit the financial sector hard that is why Putin is yet to tempt them with an invasion. Russians still lost 10% of their disposable income. what do you think when things like flight bans to Europe are imposed on Russia it will turn into North Korea
Typical half wit fallacy claiming that the elites are to blame. It's regular humans. Elites might facilitate it, but it's the common man, and his warlike human nature that gets enrolled in the army. Yes the people suffer, but it's because other people prefer getting enrolled in the army rather than getting a job, and they don't mind actually going to war either, because they might reap benefits. So shut you pie-hole with that elites cliche, I'm so sick of it..
Long term I think this strategy is bad for Russia. What has Putin accomplished? Well, he's threatened Kiev with the heaviest possible intervention- full on invasion. They'll be rearming and strengthening like crazy for at least the next few years now, faster than ever. To a somewhat lesser extent but by no means insignificant, NATO nations will have seen this possible danger crystallizing in front of them. They will also be thinking about rearming or increasing their military capabilities. Europe evidently seems more dangerous than it did 20 years ago. It drives debate inside Sweden and Finland, to move closer to NATO membership. This would be some distance away, but the fact is they have also woken up to the perceived Russian threat. What about energy? This energy crisis will be stimulant for those nations lazily reliant on Russian imports, previously taking it for granted. Particularly Germany. Will they sit there and do nothing? Unlikely. They and many other countries are going to throw more weight and effort behind their green agendas in an attempt to insulate themselves from future energy shocks. It's a big wake up call for Europe on multiple fronts after a period of complacency. I don't see how any of it makes sense for Russian goals, except perhaps to service nationalistic pride, a folly. If Putin's long term goal is to make Europe more hostile and the backup plan is to sell out wholesale to Beijing then they're on point.....
@@megaponful only if you think Putin is some sort of infallible strategic genius. All signs during these last few months seem to point to Russia's moves creating a whole bunch of very undesirable (for them) unforeseen consequences. More NATO not less, being the primary example. If you want to shock a wealthy nation into action then also drive up their energy prices and see if they just do nothing. There is always a response, and many of them appear to not be favourable to Russia's goals especially long term.
@@pgr3290 On the contrary, risks for Putin are small, he controls the whole situation and can escalate and deescalate when he wants. For Russia the Ukraine is a key factor so Putin plays hard. And of course the EU countries need to blame themselfs for high gas prices - that's showed completely wrong in that video
" throw more weight and effort behind their green agendas in an attempt to insulate themselves from future energy shocks" Green agenda? That's a failure- nuclear energy is the future for Europe.
NATO is not a defensive entity, it has seen intervention in Libya, and in Afghanistan. Probably best if Russia move first, than later. So how is that long term bad? I mean they going to join anyway, at least they make sure their Black Sea port isn't blockade.
One thing missing from your analysis is what this crisis is doing to Ukraine and how this plays into Russia's hands. One of Putin's goals was to show Ukraine that it is in their interest to cooperate with Russia at least as much as to cooperate with the West - or in less diplomatic words, "to show them who's boss". Although this has made ordinary Ukrainians hate Russia far more than before, at the high level Putin's mission has so far been accomplished, without firing a single shot. How? Russia can afford to keep 100,000 or more troops at Ukraine's border for a long time, but Ukraine can't afford those troops being at the border. Ukraine needs to maintain a large force including reserves, which is a huge drain on its finances; they are losing foreign direct investment because everyone is spooked about the "imminent invasion"; some Ukrainians (though not many at this point) are moving inside Ukraine or to other countries to avoid the conflict, destabilizing the economy; and many other issues for Ukraine. Again, without a single shot being fired. To make it worse for Ukraine, the West is now considering making small concessions to Russia to "allow Putin to climb down the ladder". However, there is no ladder - an invasion has never been in Russia's interest, but a prolonged standoff serves Putin more the longer it lasts.
@@iloncadaniela4270 Donbass war killed around 13,000 people. By contrast, Afghanistan killed around 300,000. And don't even get me started on Iraq. Good luck next time:)
@@ArawnOfAnnwn nowhere near 300K Afghans were killed since US invasion , you pulled that # out of your ass . 150-200K Iraqis were killed , but nearly all were killed by their own countrymen , in the Sunni/Shia sectarian conflict , not by Americans . Russia on the other hand genocides over a million afghans in the 80s , & over 5 million Ukrainians in the Holodomor of 1930s . So far , high gas/oil prices have kept the Russian economy in a slightly better state than it was in the 90s . But the world did not forget the Russian mass terrors mentioned above , so if putin grows too big for his britches , you better believe the Russian economy will cease to exist . Europe may have to pay a bit more for natural gas (until the Israeli/Cyprus gas pipeline to Greece is finished) but they can afford it . But Russia cannot , & if putin overplays his hand , he alone will be the one to blame for the complete pauperization of Russia
During WW II, the Nazis were drawn into the interior of Russia during the summer months, only for the Soviet Union to launch a counter-offensive once the weather became bitterly cold. This was the point where Germany's efforts at taking over Europe ended. Following WW II, the Soviet Union and Russia invested heavily in resource extraction in the middle of the country - oil, gas, metals, and other minerals. Other investments were made in railroads, roads, and power generation infrastructure. The population of the Soviet Union was about 380 million at its peak. The population of Russia was about 150 million when the Soviet Union dissolved. In most years since Russia's population has been shrinking, and it is now at 142 million. Based on the population pyramid for Russia published by the CIA World Factbook, there are about 19 million people aged 45 to 55 in Russia. The retirement age in Russia is 55, so this implies that roughly 2 million people are exiting the workforce each year at the retirement age. The number of people aged 10 to 19 in Russia is about 16 million, which implies that roughly 1.6 million new workers are entering the workforce for each 2 million that leave. This will remain true for at least the next 20 years. In short, the Russian workforce is shrinking by 400,000 per year. This workforce is responsible for maintaining all the far flung pipelines, compressor stations, railroad bridges, powerlines, and roads built by their parents and grandparents. Losing 1 million workers every 2.5 years is sort of like being in a war where 400,000 troops are being killed or permanently disabled every year. Did Russia overextend itself into its hinterland, and is now losing the core labor force required to keep it functional? Is anyone in either Russia or the West cognizant of this situation and how it might influence any decision to engage militarily?
The total number of Russians working in lucrative oil and gas jobs won't even be 5 million. Getting a job in that industry is extremely hard because they pay so well compared to other jobs that pay only $600/month. So there will never be a shortage of workers when it comes to Russian vital exports especially when you take into account that Russia receives at least a million of working-age immigrants every year.
This story is true of the west as well, except for America which keeps surviving off of immigrants. Europe is also aging rapidly. Ultimately it's America that once again shows how blessed they are in every way. And I'm not praising America when I say that mind you, rather I'm pointing out just how damn lucky that country is - it's been blessed with practically every advantage you could ask for. Protected by two massive oceans, plentiful productive farmland, abundant resources, a relatively educated starting populace, and on and on. Americans like to think very highly of themselves, when really America is, in brain4breakfasts' words, playing on easy mode.
@@jontalbot1 Russia actually liberated a lot of countries like Bulgaria, Greece, Serbia, Romania from the Ottomans. They are also allies with a lot of countries on their border like Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia.
All right, I'll play. No, not the videogame you recommended. Realpolitik. Putin miscalculated badly when he seized Crimea. Crimea is populated almost entirely by Russian-speaking, Russian-sympathizing citizens. When they were taken out of Ukraine, it handed to the opposition in Kiev easy victory in polls and in elections. Kiev was freed to chart its own political course - a course that leaned Westward and away from Russia. Ukrainian sentiment towards Russia was also damaged broadly by the seizure of Crimea. In other words, Russia lost more than it gained by seizing Crimea. Beforehand, Ukraine itself was firmly in Russia's sphere of influence. In 2014, that ended abruptly, with the former Russian-leaning President fleeing all the way to Moscow and a new regime taking over, Putin tried putting pressure on Kiev by backing separatists in Eastern Ukraine and by playing games with natural gas supplies. That did not convince Kiev to knuckle under, and it alarmed NATO. Arms started flowing to Kiev, NATO made some token Eastward deployments, and the Ukrainian military expanded and became tougher. Kiev leaned ever more Westward. Russia was even further from its goal of political dominance over Ukraine and sowing disunity among NATO allies. And EU and US sanctions, though not as robust as they might have been, nevertheless hurt Russia. Putin's scheming backfired, badly. Now Putin is using the threat of invasion to try to recover what he has lost with his shenanigans. But that won't work, either. Ukraine isn't panicked, but instead calmly preparing. More arms are arriving from NATO. The populace is viewing Russia with even more distaste. Nobody likes a bully, Russia does have the military strength to invade and make it stick. NATO won't intervene directly; they'll be following the cold war strategy of never confronting a nuclear power directly unless directly attacked, Russia could install a puppet government in Kiev, but its legitimacy will be zero, the population will be hostile, and insurgents (Moscow will call them 'terrorists') will be annoying, It will not be another Afghanistan, exactly; the terrain and politics will be very different. But the only way now for Putin to ensure that Kiev remains in Russia's sphere of influence will be to occupy it indefinitely. That will be expensive, and it will drain the military morale Putin has so carefully built up over the last fifteen years. And though NATO will be divided over how sanctions should be imposed, the US will find enough agreement in the EU to make them hurt more than the sanctions which are already in place. Europe will look for alternative sources of supply for its energy needs. They'll pay more, but Russia will have demonstrated, by invading Ukraine, that dependence on Russia for energy is a nonstarter. Saudi Arabia, the US and other oil and LNG suppliers will step up deliveries; and Europe will accelerate wind and solar projects and BEV adoption. Going forward, Russia will find that most of its oil and gas reserves will end up unexploited. The smart move is for Russia to throw in its hand, accept the status quo and retreat. Will they? No, I think not. Putin's pride is on the line here. If he backs down, he'll look foolish. Looking foolish is not good for an autocrat; others in Russia might get ideas. I think he'll invade. He'll damage Europe by cutting off natural gas deliveries, in an attempt to get them to stop sending arms to insurgents in Ukraine. He'll mobilize his propaganda wizards to try to convince Ukrainians that it's all for the best, that the Westward-leaning government was corrupt (no doubt they are, but not as corrupt as Russia itself under Putin), that NATO won't defend them (true), that Ukraine's true heart and interests align with Russia's. And he will argue that diplomacy should be used to settle the question of Ukraine - *after* he has already taken it. Putin set the stage for this little drama. He has no choice now but to play it through to its conclusion. He can't be seen to be indecisive or bluffing, and in truth, he is not. He's got the military might, he's got China backing his play, he will never accept that Russia is no longer one of the world's superpowers, and he's annoyed by the endless carping from the West over Russia's one-party concept of democracy (a contradiction in terms) or Russia's human rights record. Forecasting for this matter is tricky, because when you are dealing with a dictator, it doesn't really come down to analysis of the political and economic factors in play. Those are not unimportant, but the final decision belongs to one man. And so we are reduced to attempting to divine Putin's thinking. I think he'll invade. You don't. But none of the arguments we can put forward will get at the truth. Putin will do whatever he decides to do, and that's the final answer. It's up to him. Putin is the sole actor; everyone else can only react to his decision.
Crimea, under any circumstances, did not give an opportunity to control Ukraine, elections in Ukraine do not matter if nationalists can overthrow any president by force, so the return of Crimea to Russia gave a greater gain in the long run, as soon as the anti-Russian regime in Kiev came to power, the countdown began for it, the economic degradation of Ukraine will sooner or later lead to its collapse, if at the same time you invest a lot of money in Crimea and show an example of successful development, then this will accelerate the processes of discrediting anti-Russian elites.
@@Emily-ou6lq Crimea was, before Putin seized it, an internationally recognized part of Ukraine. It had a local government - hence the 'autonomous' descriptor - but it was still part of the sovereign territory of Ukraine. Let's not pretend that the legal status of Crimea was that of a sovereign nation, or that Putin's seizure of it did not violate Ukrainian sovereignty. Crimea had been a part of Ukraine since Stalin ruled Russia, who decided to remove it from Russia and gift it to Ukraine. Is there an historical context in which the return of Crimea to Russia can be justified? Definitely yes. Should the wishes of Crimeans matter? Sure! Could Russia's desire to reunite with Crimea have been handled diplomatically? I don't see why not. But it wasn't. It is a fact that Crimea belonged to Ukraine, Russia took it by force, and Russia's seizure violated Ukrainian sovereignty. The seizure of Crimea also changed the political map in Ukraine drastically, pushing Kiev away from Russia's sphere of influence and towards the EU's and NATO's. Now Russia is again threatening a sovereign nation with force. European nations and their allies will not look favorably upon Russia if it starts another European war. We've had quite enough of those.
Apparent? It’s going to happen and very soon. A sad day indeed, many Ukrainians and Russians will get injured and die, all at the will of Putin. He won’t be sacrificing anything personally.
No the false claims of a invasion hyped by a scripted media has caused prices to go up. But I'm sure Biden will use it as a excuse for his inflation problem and fuel prices back home
Finland only uses 6% of natural gas towards energy consumption, see statistics Finland. 21% roughly is oil, even more is wooden fuel. Gas is mostly used in industrial processes, in particular steelworks, but that is only a matter of time until that is not used. Finland has a dedicated online platform for transparent statistics, I suggest you use it.
JAVELINS if putin invades ukraine the Russian veterans who survive the war will hate that word for the rest of their lives, those missiles can cause horrific losses when put to use in a guerilla war, Putin should just give up Ukraine is long gone from his influence
Russia will not invade Uraine, but will come to protect russian independent regions, hold a referendum on joining Russia and add those regions to the russian federation. Exactly the same scenario as in Crimea.
Nah, it is not useful for Russia. If this happens, then those republics officially won't be a part of Ukraine, so it will be easier for Ukraine to join NATO with its new borders that it actually controls compared to the current borders of the territory it can't even control.
@@gdrfggtthmfr4272 hope so ...Russia has great history . Good and bad , just like America and Britain . Unfortunatly the western Media is powerful and keeps the General population and its PM Johnson stupid . Can we borrow Vladimir for a few weeks ?
Well, this video didn't age well! "... And so, Putin's first great strength in the Ukrainian crisis is precisely being able to expect that, if necessary, the Russian army will be in a position to make a clean and rapid intervention."
Very interesting as all your other videos, well done. May I suggest you do another video on the oil and gas dependence from Russia by Germany and other EU countries discussing pre- and post- invasion on Ukraine. I don't agree with you on Poland being put into the same basket as the other EU countries - Poland was against building the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and making themselves dependent on Russia. Poland knows not to trust Russia and warned EU of dependence on Russian gas for years but no one would listen. Poland made themselves independent by diversifying to get majority from Qatar, US and Norway. They built liquefied natural gas port on the Baltic Sea in 2015 and Baltic Pipe project together with Denmark for supply of gas from North Sea which will be operational in October'22. Poland takes small amounts of Russian oil and gas, and was going to cut itself off completely when Gazprom contract expires at the end of 2022. Know your enemy is the main principle of the Art of War.
We went over all of this advanced Russian war weapons stuff during the Cold War. It’s the same old story. The Russians used to sing a marching song about going through Europe then Chicago. It never happened and the Russians are even weaker today. When the USSR fell I was shocked to see that it was all bellow and bluster. Putin had to raise the pension age recently because he wanted to save money. War is very expensive and Russia hasn’t the money or manpower to prosecute a long war. He doesn’t have enough support for his legacy building adventures. We could cut off China from our markets. We can make money from selling LNG to Europe and weapons to Ukraine. China has even worst demographic problems. It doesn’t have a replacement population to be workers and soldiers. Now there is cheaper labor in Mexico and Indonesia to compete with China. Of course China has problems with Taiwan which can be a nightmare for the PLA. Meanwhile the USA is looking inwards and cares less about Europe . We supply LNG to South Korea and Japan. So we will focus on making the LNG process cheaper and more productive.
The problem is that as for germany. Many people prefer russian gas over US fracking gas as the US-method isn't as eco friendly. This is very important for germans.
@@timkey_4542 natural gas is very eco friendly. Shale rock when cracked releases oil and natural gas. Natural gas is a by product of fracking. Fracking is eco friendly. Because the oil inside of shale rock is fine grade there is little refining needed. Venezuelan crude is the opposite and needs heavy refining. But if Germans want Russian gas then political warfare comes with it. The Germans can give themselves up to the gentle mercies of Putin.
@@chairde I wouldn't even care about eco friendlyness of gas and oil if I didn't live in the country those morons (Green Party and SPD) are in charge of rn
difference between "looking dangerous" and "being dangerous".Russia describes military doctrine as defensive military doctrine. With regard to nuclear weapons specifically, Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons: in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it or its allies,in case of aggression against Russia with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is threatened. oops google russia deadhand The 'Perimeter' system, dubbed in the United States and Europe the 'Dead Hand', is an automatic control system for a retaliation nuclear strike. To put it simply, if Russia's territory is devastated after a nuclear attack, the Perimeter system automatically strikes the enemy's territory with its own nuclear missiles
@@knowledge3563 Still all old Cold War stuff. It all comes out of M.A.D. Theory. That is mutually assured destruction meaning that there is no limited nuclear war. If two nuclear powers start tossing nukes then both sides get destroyed. You can believe that if anyone uses a nuke against the USA the automatic response would end the world. Nuclear weapons are only good as a deterrent to invasion. Which is why nobody is going to invade Russia.
*The big idea is that because transactions are public, irreversible, mostly unhackable, and controlled by the people, users and their digital finances are more protected*
@@andrewalderman9489 western values kek? Are you re_tarded have you heard about commodities the thing EU is hugely dependent on Russia and can't just get from anyone else without major disruption of trade in other parts of the world.
Basil's Cathedral is the most beautiful building in the world, especially when you consider the interior exceeds the exterior. Orthodox Christians know how to celebrate God in their Architecture.
@@majorkade Beauty is Objective and subjective. God is objectively beautiful, the Devil is objectively beautiful, subjectivity is simply how much one prefers the beauty of Good vs the beauty of Evil. St. Basils is the most beautiful Church and is the epitome of Good Beauty.
Russia does have several trump cards, lots of countries depend on Russian oil, gas, minerals and probably most of all alluminium. It was Germany who asked for Nord Stream 2, Russia can sell all its spare gas to countries on Asia
Putin would have ordered the invasion already if he saw little opposition from Ukraine. The way things stand there will be many casualties if he invades and this is very risky for his popularity (probably what he is most worried about)
Putin isn't scared of Ukraine lol. Even this channel admits they'd win easily, just get bogged down in the occupation. He didn't want to invade in the first place. Cos this isn't about Ukraine, it's about NATO. Hell, it's not even about NATO as a whole, but America. Russia was getting sick of seeing American forces creeping closer to it every year. Doing nothing meant a slow death, until it was too late. The Russians wanted a NATO agreement to halt expansion in the 90s, but couldn't get one. So now they're finally forcing the issue.
Let's get serious Mr Anderson Russia can reduce Kiev to rubble without even stepping foot on Ukrainian soil. KH-47M2 Khinzal, 3M-14AE Kalibr, KH-59MK2 Ovod, 9K720 Iskander-M. The shortest operational range of these missiles is 300KM. Ukraine can not match that firepower.
you forgot the 5th: you. "Ukraine not joining NATO!" is a core Russian interest, which Russia has said it time after times, Ukraine is not a core interest of the United States.
Putin doesn’t care about NATO. He believes Ukraine and Belarus are not proper countries but are part of a greater Russia. His aim is to weaken and destabilise Ukraine as he cannot take it. None of this helps his own people one iota.
@@jontalbot1 you must read some news 1999 was signed a treaty of merger between Russia and Belaruss it will be now be implement for Russian there is not any border between the two countries an for Belarussian
@@jontalbot1 as many Russian he know Ukraine is a mess specially when the dominant ideology as now is Galician, he waits with calm it implose but he might deliver Dombas
While Russian gas may account for almost all of the natural gas used in Finland, you are painting a false picture here. Gas is a very marginal source of energy in Finland, therefore Finland is NOT highly dependent on Russian gas.
I think with Russia running out of Russians fast as its population contracted by almost a million last year alone it could really use those 40 million "spare Russians"in the Ukraine. With food as the new oil the enormous agricultural potential of Ukraine would be a nice bonus to say the least.
@@josephphoenix1376 Well, the video suggests that Putin is well prepared to make his move at minimal cost and the suffering of the Russian people is of no concern to his regime. Basically people with power always want more power at any cost.
IT is along time Ukraine has enormous unexploited agricultural since 30 years; thanks to the sanction now Russia is self-suffisant and export weat Madagascar has also potencials well administrated ukraine has a big future but in a long time don't say in THE Ukraine if there is an Ukrainian around he will not be happy and I dont know why
Well, the West just called his ... bluff? From the looks of it your previous video was spot-on. I think the Russians have jumped into a hornets nest and that even many of their own soldiers would prefer Russia joining the West rather than fight Ukraine civilians, maybe even relatives of theirs ... Problem remains that the dictator has command over some pretty big nuclear stingers himself.
Making it out at a young age is quite difficult. I started a side hustle at 17, saved up and made some good investments. l'm 28,live on my own and having a good life for myself. Big ups to you and everyone out there trying
@Hoshi Fuyo Yes it sure is. I put in money in investments and get profits. That 's how I make more money without working. This does not sound new to you right ?
Yeah pretty much that was revealed when the Chinese government commented on the Russian anniversary of Vladivostok The CCP said that "Vladivostok was once a Chinese city and it should be returned"
not at all its going to be the strongest alliance ever military, economically because of genious strategists from Us neoconservative ( the one who invaded Irak) who sent Russia in the arms of China
Russia 2022: We promise not to invade Ukraine as long as Ukraine promises not to ask for help and if NATO promise not to help if asked. Germany 1939: We promise not to invade Poland as long as Poland promises not to ask for help and if Allies promise not to help if asked.
I agree with your last point: A swift and surprising invasion would be key for it not to become a disaster and for limiting the risks. Just as with Krimea back in 2014.
@Tony Soprano Probably, but at the same time, he is a gambler that is quick to take advantage of an opportunity when it shows up. And of course, events tend to have a nasty habit of not going according to plan. Traditional game theory assumes perfect knowledge and logical thinking, but that is rarely the case in the real world. Invasion is highly unlikely, but a an uncertainty still exists. And so, the play continues. lol
@Tony Soprano US and NATO estimates for requirement of full scale invasion was 130.000 troops. That is also about ish the size of Ukraine's army. The 130k was reached during the last days according to US intelligence. (That's also where the invasion date 16.02. Or headline "invasion is imminent" Came from: it is more about the troops capabilities than about their intention. A fact that, at least in Germany, was not much discussed. All that was left was: russia will invade soon.)
We're experiencing what I regard as the "Canadization" of Russia. That is to say, a resource-rich nation that becomes dependant upon being able to export said riches to a more powerful industrial nation, while it's own national industry either atrophies or simply never grows to significance. And I say this as a proud-ish Canadian. Welcome to the Hewers of Wood and Drawers of Water club, Russia. Please help yourself to a beer from the fridge, but leave your guns on the table.
We don't have the benefit of having no nations who want a piece of us around us. China licks their lips at Siberia, most of Western nations want more out of us, and the Caucasus will attempt to crack open and separate. The problem with this assumption is that Russia is in a safe position, where becoming a Canada is safe and beneficial, it is neither, and will most likely lead to Russia simply being torn apart by every passer-by. I have deep respect for Canada, you guys have beautiful nature and nice people, but the only nation that borders you is your ally.
Well, I wouldn't mind living a halcyon life with a steady job without needing to worry about wars. Looking forward to having this kind of life in Russia.
@@gent9358 Truth be.. Russia, with a democratic / republic president, more inclined to embrace west - could become the next economic power, not just military. Look how much very small Estonia managed to do in so little time.. The thing is, most west countries, including USA, love Russian people, are intrigue by the country and it's beautiful places.. but knowing that it is a totalitarian regime, with huge mafia and not so safe to travel, i really think it misses a lot of opportunities. Before Erdogan, Turkey was huge economically, especially in tourism. I guarantee you that west people would flock to visit Russia if it wasn't for the afford mentioned problems.
@@gent9358 you said it pretty well of what I was thinking. Although we do sell sell natural resources, we also have a sizeable automotive and aircraft industry. So we don’t put too many eggs in one basket. Where Russia is significantly more reliant on the fuel resource sector. One only wonders how damaging it’ll hit them as early as 2030 with the world moving away from natural gas, oil, etc…
@@gent9358 Russia, as it stands, will eventually fragment, and when Russia breaks, the entire world will suffer the consequences. What the scope of the damage will be or not be, I can only speculate, but Russia cannot maintain this state indefinitely, and at some point in the future, it _will_ fragment. The question is not whether this will happen, but how. I know that's a potentially inflammatory thing to say, especially to someone who is Russian. As stated, I am Canadian. I've accepted for a long time that my country, which I do love, will eventually become absorbed into the United States. Maybe some people think this is a good thing, others a bad thing, and others won't care one way or another. Accepted doesn't mean that I like it, but it does mean that I understand why it will happen, and why it makes no difference how I feel about it. In the end Nations are just another thing we invented, another work of mankind like any other. The Question isn't why they should fall someday, but why they should be the sole exception.
Both Russia and the Western Nations have dwindling populations due to their low birth rates and cannot afford to expend their youth. Hence no major conflict for the next 50yrs but there will be plenty of posturing and brow beating The biggest loser of all would be Germany if a war did break out since it consumes most of Russia's raw materials which are mostly imported cheaply by rail. It's a case of sabre rattling from Russia for it definitely needs Europe to help catapult it into the 21st Century. Of the Ukraine's 44m population over 20% are ethnic Russians. Its hard to say what role they would play if a conflict did play out.. There are also ethnic Russians in neighbouring Belarus too. There's no way Americans would dare to be directly involved Since the conflict would most likely consist of urban warfare - which renders battle space technology useless - due to the fear of civilian casualties caused by collateral damage. Since the end of the Vietnam War most American deaths have been caused by error or friendly fire - thus the American public will not be able to tolerate a high rate of casualties of which would result from house to house combat. Thus a war in the Ukraine would be a proxy war between the US and Britain against Russia and it's former allies with France, Germany and most of the EU remaining neutral. All in all Russia would win against the Ukraine and using boots on the ground could successfully invade the rest of Europe within a couple of Weeks. This is because highly developed nations have a greater dependency on their infrastructure to be fully functional imagine these economies without WiFi for instance, such Infrastructure which could be easily destroyed by air or by foot. Any how could any Westerner truly imagine a friend or relative engaged in hand-to-hand combat these days? My 30yr old son would be traumatised if I asked him to pick-up my prescription on his way home from his work!
Ok guys, you have some very dated info on Polish dependency on Russian gas. However it was still 55% last year(your chart shows about 70%), we are building "baltic pipe" from Norway which is basically a gas pipeline which, with increasing capacity of our gasport will have capacity to stop import from Russia altogether.
Even if you only had half of your current dependency on Russian gas your economy would be crippled. The baltic pipeline is a pipe dream as Norway is already at max production capacity and according to its prime minister cannot replace any missing supplies from Russia.
@@Argozification except were doing the oil mining in Norway by PGNiG and we aren't obligated to sell this stuff anywhere. We can simply ship it from our rented oil platforms straight home. And the deals are not going to run out for decades, so get yourself educated before you spew contempt.
by not agreeing to any of his demands... ukraine is actually worthless to everyone including russia but they will have to pay to take it and keep it and deal with all the fallout
I think one of the things that took Putin by surprise, was Biden's comment is that the nord pipeline may not exist if things don't settle down. I was very surprised by that statement.
It might sound like conspiracy theory, but I do believe that Putin (exKGB who worked in Germany) still has a lot of influence in Germany and they lobbied against nuclear power while only alternative was Russian gas, making Germany and other nations dependant.
I have been of the belief that Putin's strategy is just sit there and do nothing. Under the idea just the constant threat will induce fatigue in the West. Until Putin gets whatever he wants just to make this all go away. Since a forever possible war is almost as bad as forever war.
America isn't going to withdraw from Europe. It has more than enough resources to sustain a presence in Europe. Even if European leaders do nothing, America is responsible for over 60% of NATO budget so it will remain in Europe
Why are wealthy Russians who have close ties to government leaders oligarchs but wealthy Americans who are close to US politicians: Adelson, the Kochs, the Mercers etc aren’t?
1. Russia's military has simply been rebuilt to the point where it can defend the Russian homeland. While its equipment and command and control were a mess in the 2000s, returning it to 'combat ready status' simply means it would be cost prohibitive for some other country to attack Russian territory. It doesn't mean Russia is adequately equipped to project power at any distance for a significant length of time. 2. Having foreign reserves of $600 billion wouldn't be much help in a war costing $1 billion per day. This is certainly what the US spent in Afghanistan, if not more. The US economy is far more productive per labor hour. If the average American worker had to work ten hours per year to support the Afghan campaign, the average Russian would have to work hundreds or even close to a thousand hours per year to pay for a 'hot' engagement in the Ukraine. This kind of resource diversion would led to shortages in civilian medical care, food, and maintenance on railroads, aircraft, and urban transit. 3. Europe might well balk at severe sanctions. This would be useful if Europe could supply Russia with computer chips. If the shortage is global, Russia would get 'leftovers', and these would be pretty meagre. If Russian labor is being diverted to support a war effort, any breakdown in infrastructure would inhibit exports to anywhere, whether Europe or China. Europe wouldn't have to impose sanctions, they might effectively come about from an inability of Russia to get product out the door. 4. China and Russia might 'like each other', or at least their leaders coordinate economic and foreign policies. This doesn't mean China can do much for anyone. China has realized it has a severe worker shortage and the workers it has have been misallocated. China desperately wants more factory workers and fewer paper pushers with Bachelor's degrees. It is pouring money into its own military, in some cases unproductively. If Russia starts leaning on China for help, China may well have to apologize with 'sorry, we can't do what you need' - even if they want to. Vast amounts of Russian wealth have been stored in Western financial institutions or in Western assets. The US is likely to confiscate everything it can find that belongs to Putin or any of his friends, or anything that is obviously Russian but otherwise untraceable. If Russians aren't busily repatriating their assets to Russia, it's likely that Putin can sense his personal exposure, as well as the capacity of his allies to support him if their assets are stripped as well. This is probably a background signal of Putin's intentions. Russia's 'population pyramid' is more like a 'population funnel'. Based on the CIA World Factbook, the number of women in the age range of 20 to 29 is around 7 million. Over the next ten years these women are likely to have about 11 million babies (fertility ratio of 1.6). If one multiplies 1.1 babies per year times a 72 year life expectancy, one gets a population of roughly 80 million in 2090. This means that the population of Russia will be shrinking by attrition alone at a rate of nearly 1 million per year. If the US and a few other countries made it trivially easy for Russian women with young children to emigrate, the demographic shock on Russia would be severe. Russia would have to impose very strict foreign travel restrictions on its citizens, which might well result in economic or political chaos. It's unlikely that the US would do any such thing, but certain other countries might find this option attractive if their own demographic profiles continue to deteriorate the way they have over the last few decades.
2. Don't compare inflated war pricing of USA to Russia. There was no taxes increase for example for Syria. It's just part of regular budget. Russia is fighting it's wars much more economical, as military-industrial complex is not in control. 3. You are making it look like we are going into WW3. WW3 will be huge issue for everyone, mainly due to use of nuclear weapons. Local conflict does not mean it will require WW2-level of mobilization. 4. When was the last time you've been to China? I suggest you take a high-speed train from Shanghai to Shenzhen to see it. It's power is overwhelming. China is trying to downplay it to not scare everyone too soon. On immigration - if you check statistics, you will see that Russia has systematic immigration surplus. I.e. people are immigrating TO Russia, not FROM Russia every year in the last ~10 years at least. "American dream" is dead not only for Americans, but also for Russians (since late 1990's).
@@BarsMonster "Don't compare inflated war pricing of USA to Russia." It costs money to field an army, and the money is a proportion of GDP. People sitting in tanks are not sitting at desks, or 'on their feet' in farms or factories. Russian military operations may be 'cheap' in comparison to the way the US fights wars, but it isn't free. "You are making it look like we are going into WW3" A lot of people believe, when hostilities start, that "this will all be over with in a few months". Two years, five years, ten years, twenty years later, vast more treasure and life has been lost, and often there is little to show for it. "When was the last time you've been to China?" I've never been to China. Building high speed rail is one thing a country like China can do well. However, they've messed up a lot elsewhere. The whole 'lie flat' business is a reaction to too much government, too much parental pressure, and overly demanding employers. The CCP is flailing around trying to cope with a population bust, bankrupt property developers, corrupt local government officials, and polluted food and water. I could visit monuments and 'showpiece' public works all day. That isn't the whole story, or even very much of the story.
@@meredithpoor666 Congratulations, you are the most delusional person I have ever run across here, and that's really saying something. I mean, you are *offensively* delusional. Russia's military doesn't have to "project power" , it literally has to just march across an imaginary line. Don't compare American costs to anything, it would cost America more than the world's GDP if it tried building a high speed rail system like China's. It doesn't cost much to bomb power stations, sanitation plants, and hospitals in the western part of Ukraine opposed to Russian control - just like Putin did in Syria until he ground the rebellion into dust. Whatever your nonsense about Russian demographics, you might want to note that America's fertility rate is about where Russia's is. You're in the same boat - if their population pyramid looks like a funnel or donut or whatever your silliness is, so does yours. But your nonsense about China takes the cake. China wants more factory workers and fewer people with university degrees? Are you high? China is pumping eye watering sums of money into its education system and it graduates 8x more STEM degree holders than America. You very *obviously* haven't been to China - all you know of it is negative Western propaganda; and it is propaganda, your Congress just allocated $500 million dollars to buy negative press about China. How pathetic. All the problems you've mentioned are nothing more than pebbles thrown at a rolling freight train. China has all the technology and capital Russia could ever need. All your stupid sanctions would do is demolish German industry and leave the field wide open for Chinese companies. It would force Russia to sell its gas at a discount to China, so China wins yet again.
Western countries must remove restrictions on Russian youth so they can move out of Russia easily. Stealing young healthy Russians and moving them to the west would be a great idea of weakening Russia
All in all, i worry most about the "information war". Maybe this would also do a good video topic for content like this @VisualPolitik EN? At least here in Germany, the news, expert discussions, commentaries etc dont seem to add up to the actual scenario in ukraine. Either journalist and Politicians have fallen fully and without any doubting for Putin's ruse or one could get the feeling, thst there is a method behind the exaggeration, the hysteria (afterall twice in 12 months they have called the invasion to be "imminent" without anything happening...): Without an attack on Nato members ever being in discussion and USA, Germany and France speaking of "grave consequences" only in the sense of sanctions not militarily defending ukraine, nato had sent troops to the east. Journalists often mainly repeat american and Nato statement (like "invasion imminent" and "no withdrawl to be confirmed (less then 24 h after the announcement as if it were mouse click)" without adding the relevent context or critical thinking. And with that i am not saying Russian statement dont need this either. No. But both sides are playing with information and desinformation with facts and how they are to be interpreted and we seem to be falling for it...
@@ArawnOfAnnwn true. This Channel is also part of the media. But why should I not ask them. Maybe i asked other "the medias" as well to look at the topic. What makes me confident @VisualPolitik EN is different? Nothing. I dont watch their content often enough to judge. Also it sometimes is difficult to see the difference between subjectivity on their (the "media") side or a biased definition of "objectivity on my end (that i also apply to the news etc). But this video alone seems to be different to most I have seen in the news recently. But even if not: A video about the information wars is already interesting enough, whether it adhears to my definition of objectivity or not, don't you think? 😀
You seem to underestimate the China card. It may weaken Russia but strengthens China which anyway poses a greater threat to the global order than Russia. From a realpolitik POV, the German admiral Schonbach was correct. Making an ally of Russia would be more helpful, even necessary, to stare down Chinese aggression.
Yeah maybe so or maybe not. What if Putin won't stop ? What if what he want not just Ukraine but expand to ex-Soviet block ? A new threat from Russia would help US something to throw on Europe while focus on China. Europe power like German really need to shake off from pacifist POV and to face the need of have its own powerful military. Like Japan should be doing in Asia
@@khan-cricket That's the point. If you make an ally out of him, he will also have the chinese threat to face. He won't make an enemy out of both sides, and he can't be friends to both sides. He needs money and western money is more attractive than Chinese money so far. The point is to to try and work out a deal with him.
@@sameerindirock No. I think it is too late to deal with such mean. China is watching now and every moves Putin makes, China will learn from it. Now it is time to show some tough move before US have to deal with stiuation like this again in Asia
@@khan-cricket That just means stronger China. Putin also is not comfortable being over-reliant on China, but lack of tact from the west means he will go that way anyway. A China without Russia could be leveraged for oil and gas. But China with Russia reduces such a threat to China a great deal.
America should be staying out of this and let EU countries and EU members of NATO handle the negotiations. A major of part of Putin's 'invasion' mind game of Ukraine is about America and lessor extent NATO and the EU. It would make more sense for the EU to work with Russia with out America's 'we are the leader of the free world' interference.
Well yes but NATO members are incompetent US dogs. He did try to deal with the EU leaders but ultimately turned to Biden seeing how incompetent they are.
I actually believe this is not really a NATO problem but an EU problem because one of the central pillars of the EU constitution is Security. If the UE cannot collectively sort out this response from a united people of 450 million which is three times the population of Russia then the days of EU co-operation are numbered and a period of deglobalisation will come to the fore. EVERY MAN FOR HIMSELF.
Putin is no fool and he is right about the NATO encroachment. That said, he is still tyrannical and is about to launch an offensive that will see many Ukrainian and Russian lives lost and great financial hardship for both. He himself will not suffer or sacrifice anything while sitting in the Kremlin with all his concealed wealth.
@@SimonBrisbane Why do you people believe he has to invade all of Ukraine? He can just annex more territories if he wants at a similar cost to Crimea and Donbass.
This helps a lot with my trading. As long as the invasion is limited , Europe will always choose soft sanctions that Russia will simply brush off. Russia boosted its foreign reserves to insulate itself from western sanctions and its interference on its decisions. The west too will have to free it’s economy if it’s to make independent decisions. Russia did their homework, the west, not so much and unfortunate for Ukraine
It will take some time but the sanctions will eventually run Russia into the ground. Putin’s personal anschluss will come back to haunt Russia. I hope the people rise up against the mad man.
@@SimonBrisbane this will affect the whole world economy. We are fools if we think russians did not think through these sanctions. These war moves are made after considering all worse outcomes from it. NATO/Ukraine should accept their liberal diplomacy failure and accept to be a neutral state.
@@SimonBrisbane However, as Europe remains dependent on Russian resources, it’s unlikely for sanctions to be crashing. A more meaningful one would have targeted the energy industry but EU needs gas especially during the winter (Part of the reason Putin chose winter and during high gas prices). By the time the weather becomes warmer or gas prices drop (maybe an Iran nuclear deal), Putin plans on being out of there or would have installed a puppet government. And EU would have moved on and started cozying up to Russia with a energy deal … EU need to accelerate its independence on Russian resources (that is the long term solution)
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What about Greece- Israel gas pipe line?
Russia will dominate once The Northeast Passage opens up.
Europe is already dependent with oil/gas plus many other goods with Russia and now they'll be dependent on shipping to the East as well.
Your statistics regarding the gas dependency are misleading. For example out of total energy production in Finland gas takes only 6%. Your statistics only show how much of that is bought from Russia.
There is no evidence of a “lack of technology” actually plenty of evidence to show the complete opposite. But better than your last uneducated video
@@PetrosTriantafyllidis ok
Watching this today 21/02/2022, you were wrong buddy, Putin invaded.
rip
Aged like milk
You should watch his video on the west's response (before the invasion in what they would do if it happened) shockingly accurate
This video didn't age well a few weeks into the Ukraine invasion
hes a clout chaser simple as that, totally clueless on anything military.
When talking about the dependence of Europe on Russian gas, it is important to mention that GERMANY INTENTIONALLY ELIMINATED A VITAL SOURCE OF ENERGY when it shut down its nuclear plants. If all of Europe had as much nuclear power as France, this discussion would be completely different.
Exactly. Thanks, to Angela Merkel for the greatest example of shortsightedness in politics during the last decade.
They're gonna solve that by relabeling gas as green energy, and green energy is renewable
Nuclear power is a hotbutton issue. In theory, everyone is kind of ok with it. In practice no one wants it anywhere nearby. Local protests of people living anywhere near a nuclear plant make it politically toxic. I can kind of see their point. Basically, people have lost faith in the safety of nuclear power after the Fukashima disaster and forced their politicians to stop using it. Is that smart? Well no not really, but I wouldn't want to live near a nuclear power plant either. Though I'd be ok with it if it was used somewhere else, somewhere far far away. If everyone thinks that way, it doesn't get built.
@@zenopath1 I agree with you mostly, but I have a nuclear power plant nearby and I'm glad it's there. That one plant delivers half of the power that is generated in my state, without producing significant carbon emissions. Fukushima and Chernobyl were both designed in the 60's. After 60 years of more experience, the new designs are far safer. Unfortunately, most people are not well informed about new nuclear technology or how radiation woks in general. And of course, there will always be people against anything that seems unnatural, even if it means the planet will choke on carbon dioxide.
Yes I wish nuclear power was given more a chance to much bad publicity
As a finnish resident, I think you should point out that yes all of our gas comes from Russia but that isn't a problem at all since gas is only used in really specific small sectors of the industry and not for heating homes or critical infrastructure. Russia restricting gas to Finland would have little to no impact on anything here - the country which suffers most from Russian gas politics is Germany.
thank you i did not now that
boy, this didn't age well ...thats why I prefer the Caspianreport, he was spot on!
Russian:- You don't join NATO or we'll attack you 😡
Ukraine:- We're joining NATO so you don't attack us 🥶
Russia: Builds up over 100k trooper around Ukraine
Russia: "We don't want war, stop overreacting."
Stupid bot
Lol I like that this account is just pasting this on the comments of every Ukraine related news video.
@@DiviAugusti it’s just disinformation, that’s one of the tactics of warfare
Ukraine applied to join NATO in 2008 and was denied, even though they had no territorial claims.
The Ukrainian grouping in the Donbas is 250 thousand soldiers, the presence of 100 thousand Russian soldiers on the border does not mean anything.
When the USSR collapsed, there were nuclear missiles left in Ukraine and Kazakhstan. But a year or two later, both countries made a deal with the Russian Federation and voluntarily gave their nukes up. I remember thinking at the time, "They're gonna regret this."
I take no pleasure in being right about that.
@Tony Soprano 'They got Billions of Dollar for the Nukes from Europe and America. " sadly - nope. Budapest memorandum was heavily critisised inside in Ukraine 90-s because nukes were gave up for free and for weakly declarised promises. Plus there were many tactical small radius nukes, those need no codes.
@Tony Soprano However the cores could have been removed from the missiles and put in new ones which Ukraine controlled. I know the west didn't want any more proliferation in who had nukes, but just having a few of them might have ensured Ukraine's future independence from Russia.
When the Soviet Union Collapsed, Ukraine technically had the 3rd largest Nuclear Arsenal in the World.
That said, Chernobyl is also in Ukraine... 🥴
Ukraine gave up it’s nukes under tremendous pressure from the US, EU and Russia. Washington and Brussels promised billion in aid and Russia went so far as to guarantee it would not attack Ukraine if Ukraine gave up the nukes.
@@dm9078 Yeah and Russia kept that promise down to this day.
It's the 1st March and wow. So much has changed in less than 2 weeks. Would love to see follow up to assess how all these cards from Putin and NATO that have played out. The EU is almost underwriting Ukraine's war which could potentially get funded by frozen Russian assets of they get seized
Well his first video was spot on...
Regardless of who wins it is the people that suffers.... Those in power as well as the elites might be able to endure sanctions but the ordinary people will pay the price of the conflict.
that is the whole idea of sanctions elites cant controll millions of people who suddenly find themselves poor
That's true to a point. There is a line that could be crossed where thousands or millions of people will no longer tolerate losing money because of other people's dicisions
@@eduwino151 that should have happened in 2014
@@douglassantet647 2014 is because greedy European firms especially Germans are still working around sanctions. this time they will be sweeping and will hit the financial sector hard that is why Putin is yet to tempt them with an invasion. Russians still lost 10% of their disposable income. what do you think when things like flight bans to Europe are imposed on Russia it will turn into North Korea
Typical half wit fallacy claiming that the elites are to blame. It's regular humans. Elites might facilitate it, but it's the common man, and his warlike human nature that gets enrolled in the army. Yes the people suffer, but it's because other people prefer getting enrolled in the army rather than getting a job, and they don't mind actually going to war either, because they might reap benefits. So shut you pie-hole with that elites cliche, I'm so sick of it..
Long term I think this strategy is bad for Russia. What has Putin accomplished? Well, he's threatened Kiev with the heaviest possible intervention- full on invasion. They'll be rearming and strengthening like crazy for at least the next few years now, faster than ever. To a somewhat lesser extent but by no means insignificant, NATO nations will have seen this possible danger crystallizing in front of them. They will also be thinking about rearming or increasing their military capabilities. Europe evidently seems more dangerous than it did 20 years ago. It drives debate inside Sweden and Finland, to move closer to NATO membership. This would be some distance away, but the fact is they have also woken up to the perceived Russian threat. What about energy? This energy crisis will be stimulant for those nations lazily reliant on Russian imports, previously taking it for granted. Particularly Germany. Will they sit there and do nothing? Unlikely. They and many other countries are going to throw more weight and effort behind their green agendas in an attempt to insulate themselves from future energy shocks. It's a big wake up call for Europe on multiple fronts after a period of complacency. I don't see how any of it makes sense for Russian goals, except perhaps to service nationalistic pride, a folly. If Putin's long term goal is to make Europe more hostile and the backup plan is to sell out wholesale to Beijing then they're on point.....
Are you really going take VisualPolitic's word on how Putin's mind works and how he makes his strategies.
@@megaponful only if you think Putin is some sort of infallible strategic genius. All signs during these last few months seem to point to Russia's moves creating a whole bunch of very undesirable (for them) unforeseen consequences. More NATO not less, being the primary example. If you want to shock a wealthy nation into action then also drive up their energy prices and see if they just do nothing. There is always a response, and many of them appear to not be favourable to Russia's goals especially long term.
@@pgr3290 On the contrary, risks for Putin are small, he controls the whole situation and can escalate and deescalate when he wants. For Russia the Ukraine is a key factor so Putin plays hard.
And of course the EU countries need to blame themselfs for high gas prices - that's showed completely wrong in that video
" throw more weight and effort behind their green agendas in an attempt to insulate themselves from future energy shocks"
Green agenda? That's a failure- nuclear energy is the future for Europe.
NATO is not a defensive entity, it has seen intervention in Libya, and in Afghanistan. Probably best if Russia move first, than later. So how is that long term bad? I mean they going to join anyway, at least they make sure their Black Sea port isn't blockade.
One thing missing from your analysis is what this crisis is doing to Ukraine and how this plays into Russia's hands.
One of Putin's goals was to show Ukraine that it is in their interest to cooperate with Russia at least as much as to cooperate with the West - or in less diplomatic words, "to show them who's boss".
Although this has made ordinary Ukrainians hate Russia far more than before, at the high level Putin's mission has so far been accomplished, without firing a single shot.
How? Russia can afford to keep 100,000 or more troops at Ukraine's border for a long time, but Ukraine can't afford those troops being at the border. Ukraine needs to maintain a large force including reserves, which is a huge drain on its finances; they are losing foreign direct investment because everyone is spooked about the "imminent invasion"; some Ukrainians (though not many at this point) are moving inside Ukraine or to other countries to avoid the conflict, destabilizing the economy; and many other issues for Ukraine. Again, without a single shot being fired.
To make it worse for Ukraine, the West is now considering making small concessions to Russia to "allow Putin to climb down the ladder". However, there is no ladder - an invasion has never been in Russia's interest, but a prolonged standoff serves Putin more the longer it lasts.
Well they fieard a lot of shots in Donbas, so your not totally right.
Good luck next time:)
@@iloncadaniela4270 Donbass war killed around 13,000 people. By contrast, Afghanistan killed around 300,000. And don't even get me started on Iraq. Good luck next time:)
@@iloncadaniela4270 in the grand scheme of things one must ask level of impact here. It could just be a skirmish as well.
Interesting point.
@@ArawnOfAnnwn nowhere near 300K Afghans were killed since US invasion , you pulled that # out of your ass . 150-200K Iraqis were killed , but nearly all were killed by their own countrymen , in the Sunni/Shia sectarian conflict , not by Americans . Russia on the other hand genocides over a million afghans in the 80s , & over 5 million Ukrainians in the Holodomor of 1930s . So far , high gas/oil prices have kept the Russian economy in a slightly better state than it was in the 90s . But the world did not forget the Russian mass terrors mentioned above , so if putin grows too big for his britches , you better believe the Russian economy will cease to exist . Europe may have to pay a bit more for natural gas (until the Israeli/Cyprus gas pipeline to Greece is finished) but they can afford it . But Russia cannot , & if putin overplays his hand , he alone will be the one to blame for the complete pauperization of Russia
During WW II, the Nazis were drawn into the interior of Russia during the summer months, only for the Soviet Union to launch a counter-offensive once the weather became bitterly cold. This was the point where Germany's efforts at taking over Europe ended.
Following WW II, the Soviet Union and Russia invested heavily in resource extraction in the middle of the country - oil, gas, metals, and other minerals. Other investments were made in railroads, roads, and power generation infrastructure.
The population of the Soviet Union was about 380 million at its peak. The population of Russia was about 150 million when the Soviet Union dissolved. In most years since Russia's population has been shrinking, and it is now at 142 million.
Based on the population pyramid for Russia published by the CIA World Factbook, there are about 19 million people aged 45 to 55 in Russia. The retirement age in Russia is 55, so this implies that roughly 2 million people are exiting the workforce each year at the retirement age. The number of people aged 10 to 19 in Russia is about 16 million, which implies that roughly 1.6 million new workers are entering the workforce for each 2 million that leave. This will remain true for at least the next 20 years.
In short, the Russian workforce is shrinking by 400,000 per year. This workforce is responsible for maintaining all the far flung pipelines, compressor stations, railroad bridges, powerlines, and roads built by their parents and grandparents. Losing 1 million workers every 2.5 years is sort of like being in a war where 400,000 troops are being killed or permanently disabled every year.
Did Russia overextend itself into its hinterland, and is now losing the core labor force required to keep it functional? Is anyone in either Russia or the West cognizant of this situation and how it might influence any decision to engage militarily?
The total number of Russians working in lucrative oil and gas jobs won't even be 5 million. Getting a job in that industry is extremely hard because they pay so well compared to other jobs that pay only $600/month. So there will never be a shortage of workers when it comes to Russian vital exports especially when you take into account that Russia receives at least a million of working-age immigrants every year.
How sure are you about that?Classical western analyst
It seems ur fact is based on western propaganda. U should have known better.🤷🏻♂️🤷🏻♂️
Soviet population was not close to 380 million. Do your homework.
This story is true of the west as well, except for America which keeps surviving off of immigrants. Europe is also aging rapidly. Ultimately it's America that once again shows how blessed they are in every way. And I'm not praising America when I say that mind you, rather I'm pointing out just how damn lucky that country is - it's been blessed with practically every advantage you could ask for. Protected by two massive oceans, plentiful productive farmland, abundant resources, a relatively educated starting populace, and on and on. Americans like to think very highly of themselves, when really America is, in brain4breakfasts' words, playing on easy mode.
If you border Russia, they are your greatest enemy or your greatest friend. There is no middle ground.
I love your video on Ukraine’s anti-air capabilities!
How are they a saviour?
@@jontalbot1 Russia actually liberated a lot of countries like Bulgaria, Greece, Serbia, Romania from the Ottomans. They are also allies with a lot of countries on their border like Belarus, Kazakhstan and Armenia.
@@cowboybeboop9420 What times do we live now?
@@ernie4125 not every country wants western/liberal values dont frget
This channel keeps me updated on the Russia- Ukraine conflict. Good job folks.
All right, I'll play. No, not the videogame you recommended. Realpolitik.
Putin miscalculated badly when he seized Crimea. Crimea is populated almost entirely by Russian-speaking, Russian-sympathizing citizens. When they were taken out of Ukraine, it handed to the opposition in Kiev easy victory in polls and in elections. Kiev was freed to chart its own political course - a course that leaned Westward and away from Russia. Ukrainian sentiment towards Russia was also damaged broadly by the seizure of Crimea.
In other words, Russia lost more than it gained by seizing Crimea. Beforehand, Ukraine itself was firmly in Russia's sphere of influence. In 2014, that ended abruptly, with the former Russian-leaning President fleeing all the way to Moscow and a new regime taking over,
Putin tried putting pressure on Kiev by backing separatists in Eastern Ukraine and by playing games with natural gas supplies. That did not convince Kiev to knuckle under, and it alarmed NATO. Arms started flowing to Kiev, NATO made some token Eastward deployments, and the Ukrainian military expanded and became tougher. Kiev leaned ever more Westward. Russia was even further from its goal of political dominance over Ukraine and sowing disunity among NATO allies. And EU and US sanctions, though not as robust as they might have been, nevertheless hurt Russia.
Putin's scheming backfired, badly.
Now Putin is using the threat of invasion to try to recover what he has lost with his shenanigans. But that won't work, either. Ukraine isn't panicked, but instead calmly preparing. More arms are arriving from NATO. The populace is viewing Russia with even more distaste. Nobody likes a bully,
Russia does have the military strength to invade and make it stick. NATO won't intervene directly; they'll be following the cold war strategy of never confronting a nuclear power directly unless directly attacked,
Russia could install a puppet government in Kiev, but its legitimacy will be zero, the population will be hostile, and insurgents (Moscow will call them 'terrorists') will be annoying, It will not be another Afghanistan, exactly; the terrain and politics will be very different. But the only way now for Putin to ensure that Kiev remains in Russia's sphere of influence will be to occupy it indefinitely. That will be expensive, and it will drain the military morale Putin has so carefully built up over the last fifteen years. And though NATO will be divided over how sanctions should be imposed, the US will find enough agreement in the EU to make them hurt more than the sanctions which are already in place.
Europe will look for alternative sources of supply for its energy needs. They'll pay more, but Russia will have demonstrated, by invading Ukraine, that dependence on Russia for energy is a nonstarter. Saudi Arabia, the US and other oil and LNG suppliers will step up deliveries; and Europe will accelerate wind and solar projects and BEV adoption. Going forward, Russia will find that most of its oil and gas reserves will end up unexploited.
The smart move is for Russia to throw in its hand, accept the status quo and retreat.
Will they?
No, I think not. Putin's pride is on the line here. If he backs down, he'll look foolish. Looking foolish is not good for an autocrat; others in Russia might get ideas.
I think he'll invade. He'll damage Europe by cutting off natural gas deliveries, in an attempt to get them to stop sending arms to insurgents in Ukraine. He'll mobilize his propaganda wizards to try to convince Ukrainians that it's all for the best, that the Westward-leaning government was corrupt (no doubt they are, but not as corrupt as Russia itself under Putin), that NATO won't defend them (true), that Ukraine's true heart and interests align with Russia's. And he will argue that diplomacy should be used to settle the question of Ukraine - *after* he has already taken it.
Putin set the stage for this little drama. He has no choice now but to play it through to its conclusion. He can't be seen to be indecisive or bluffing, and in truth, he is not. He's got the military might, he's got China backing his play, he will never accept that Russia is no longer one of the world's superpowers, and he's annoyed by the endless carping from the West over Russia's one-party concept of democracy (a contradiction in terms) or Russia's human rights record.
Forecasting for this matter is tricky, because when you are dealing with a dictator, it doesn't really come down to analysis of the political and economic factors in play. Those are not unimportant, but the final decision belongs to one man. And so we are reduced to attempting to divine Putin's thinking. I think he'll invade. You don't. But none of the arguments we can put forward will get at the truth. Putin will do whatever he decides to do, and that's the final answer. It's up to him. Putin is the sole actor; everyone else can only react to his decision.
Crimea, under any circumstances, did not give an opportunity to control Ukraine, elections in Ukraine do not matter if nationalists can overthrow any president by force, so the return of Crimea to Russia gave a greater gain in the long run, as soon as the anti-Russian regime in Kiev came to power, the countdown began for it, the economic degradation of Ukraine will sooner or later lead to its collapse, if at the same time you invest a lot of money in Crimea and show an example of successful development, then this will accelerate the processes of discrediting anti-Russian elites.
Excellent commentary, thanks for the insightful observations.
You sir have my upvote
Very through explanation sir, thanks.
@@Emily-ou6lq Crimea was, before Putin seized it, an internationally recognized part of Ukraine. It had a local government - hence the 'autonomous' descriptor - but it was still part of the sovereign territory of Ukraine.
Let's not pretend that the legal status of Crimea was that of a sovereign nation, or that Putin's seizure of it did not violate Ukrainian sovereignty.
Crimea had been a part of Ukraine since Stalin ruled Russia, who decided to remove it from Russia and gift it to Ukraine.
Is there an historical context in which the return of Crimea to Russia can be justified? Definitely yes.
Should the wishes of Crimeans matter? Sure!
Could Russia's desire to reunite with Crimea have been handled diplomatically? I don't see why not. But it wasn't.
It is a fact that Crimea belonged to Ukraine, Russia took it by force, and Russia's seizure violated Ukrainian sovereignty. The seizure of Crimea also changed the political map in Ukraine drastically, pushing Kiev away from Russia's sphere of influence and towards the EU's and NATO's.
Now Russia is again threatening a sovereign nation with force.
European nations and their allies will not look favorably upon Russia if it starts another European war. We've had quite enough of those.
Damn glad I found this site, always proving to be a great analyse of topical issues. Nice work.
This apparent invasion might have been a maneuver to get the commodities prices high 🤔
Wouldn't surprise me. The markets are so volatile that a moose farting in Canada might be able to affect prices.
Apparent? It’s going to happen and very soon. A sad day indeed, many Ukrainians and Russians will get injured and die, all at the will of Putin. He won’t be sacrificing anything personally.
@@SimonBrisbane Do tell
Mmmmm...
Very good idea. Keep it up.
No the false claims of a invasion hyped by a scripted media has caused prices to go up. But I'm sure Biden will use it as a excuse for his inflation problem and fuel prices back home
Putin already got what he wanted. High energy prices!
And bloody hands as his personal anschluss continues.
Finland only uses 6% of natural gas towards energy consumption, see statistics Finland. 21% roughly is oil, even more is wooden fuel. Gas is mostly used in industrial processes, in particular steelworks, but that is only a matter of time until that is not used. Finland has a dedicated online platform for transparent statistics, I suggest you use it.
No war EVER is beneficial, what matters is to weigh the loss you'll get to how much badly you want the thing you're fighting for...
JAVELINS if putin invades ukraine the Russian veterans who survive the war will hate that word for the rest of their lives, those missiles can cause horrific losses when put to use in a guerilla war, Putin should just give up Ukraine is long gone from his influence
Bot
It is not possible for China and Russia to stand shoulder to shoulder because Chinese are much shorter
Putin plays 3D chess, while Bye-done plays 2D checkers.
This channel is on another level from the rest ! Superb video
Not sure if T72s are a good example. They got eaten for breakfast by US Tanks in the 90s Gulf War …
Russia will not invade Uraine, but will come to protect russian independent regions, hold a referendum on joining Russia and add those regions to the russian federation. Exactly the same scenario as in Crimea.
Doubtful. Crimea was a special case. The Donbas region is only 50% Russian and the transfer is much less clear.
Nah, it is not useful for Russia. If this happens, then those republics officially won't be a part of Ukraine, so it will be easier for Ukraine to join NATO with its new borders that it actually controls compared to the current borders of the territory it can't even control.
Нет это не так! Путин востановит СССР в границах, и НАТО уйдет с восточной Европы. И это все произойдет в ближайшие 2 года! Нам отступать уже некуда!
@@MrDjgalas and then we need to see missiles in Cuba and Venuzuala to shut Yankee gobs .
@@gdrfggtthmfr4272 hope so ...Russia has great history . Good and bad , just like America and Britain . Unfortunatly the western Media is powerful and keeps the General population and its PM Johnson stupid . Can we borrow Vladimir for a few weeks ?
Well, this video didn't age well!
"... And so, Putin's first great strength in the Ukrainian crisis is precisely being able to expect that, if necessary, the Russian army will be in a position to make a clean and rapid intervention."
One of the biggest highlights for this video is that I learned Xi is taller than Putin. Also begs the question, how tall is Putin? lmao
Probably 5'5" or 5'6". Stalin was about that size, too.
About 1,70 m
Very interesting as all your other videos, well done. May I suggest you do another video on the oil and gas dependence from Russia by Germany and other EU countries discussing pre- and post- invasion on Ukraine. I don't agree with you on Poland being put into the same basket as the other EU countries - Poland was against building the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline and making themselves dependent on Russia. Poland knows not to trust Russia and warned EU of dependence on Russian gas for years but no one would listen. Poland made themselves independent by diversifying to get majority from Qatar, US and Norway. They built liquefied natural gas port on the Baltic Sea in 2015 and Baltic Pipe project together with Denmark for supply of gas from North Sea which will be operational in October'22. Poland takes small amounts of Russian oil and gas, and was going to cut itself off completely when Gazprom contract expires at the end of 2022. Know your enemy is the main principle of the Art of War.
This video hasn't aged well........ LOL
Their current strategic blunders in Ukraine are baffling
I'm waiting for that video on Canada that's a year and a half overdue
Excellent Job!
I look forward to finding any vids you may have done on Strategy or Tactics.
You seem to have a good head for this kind of stuff!
We went over all of this advanced Russian war weapons stuff during the Cold War. It’s the same old story. The Russians used to sing a marching song about going through Europe then Chicago. It never happened and the Russians are even weaker today. When the USSR fell I was shocked to see that it was all bellow and bluster.
Putin had to raise the pension age recently because he wanted to save money. War is very expensive and Russia hasn’t the money or manpower to prosecute a long war. He doesn’t have enough support for his legacy building adventures. We could cut off China from our markets. We can make money from selling LNG to Europe and weapons to Ukraine.
China has even worst demographic problems. It doesn’t have a replacement population to be workers and soldiers. Now there is cheaper labor in Mexico and Indonesia to compete with China. Of course China has problems with Taiwan which can be a nightmare for the PLA. Meanwhile the USA is looking inwards and cares less about Europe . We supply LNG to South Korea and Japan. So we will focus on making the LNG process cheaper and more productive.
The problem is that as for germany. Many people prefer russian gas over US fracking gas as the US-method isn't as eco friendly.
This is very important for germans.
@@timkey_4542 natural gas is very eco friendly. Shale rock when cracked releases oil and natural gas. Natural gas is a by product of fracking. Fracking is eco friendly. Because the oil inside of shale rock is fine grade there is little refining needed. Venezuelan crude is the opposite and needs heavy refining. But if Germans want Russian gas then political warfare comes with it. The Germans can give themselves up to the gentle mercies of Putin.
@@chairde I wouldn't even care about eco friendlyness of gas and oil if I didn't live in the country those morons (Green Party and SPD) are in charge of rn
difference between "looking dangerous" and "being dangerous".Russia describes military doctrine as defensive military doctrine. With regard to nuclear weapons specifically, Russia reserves the right to use nuclear weapons: in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it or its allies,in case of aggression against Russia with the use of conventional weapons when the very existence of the state is threatened.
oops
google russia deadhand
The 'Perimeter' system, dubbed in the United States and Europe the 'Dead Hand', is an automatic control system for a retaliation nuclear strike. To put it simply, if Russia's territory is devastated after a nuclear attack, the Perimeter system automatically strikes the enemy's territory with its own nuclear missiles
@@knowledge3563 Still all old Cold War stuff. It all comes out of M.A.D. Theory. That is mutually assured destruction meaning that there is no limited nuclear war. If two nuclear powers start tossing nukes then both sides get destroyed. You can believe that if anyone uses a nuke against the USA the automatic response would end the world. Nuclear weapons are only good as a deterrent to invasion. Which is why nobody is going to invade Russia.
*The big idea is that because transactions are public, irreversible, mostly unhackable, and controlled by the people, users and their digital finances are more protected*
Russia is for more important for EU than US.
No, Russia doesn't share Western values. Their cooperation always comes at a cost, where with the US, they act on mutual interests.
You cannot be friends with dictators when you are a democratic country
@@sylvianorah1367 I guess you never heard of the United states and saudi Arabia relationship
@@iljenshumilin467 Why not?
@@andrewalderman9489 western values kek? Are you re_tarded have you heard about commodities the thing EU is hugely dependent on Russia and can't just get from anyone else without major disruption of trade in other parts of the world.
16:01 You just need to wait eight more days.
I've never noticed it before, but Russia has a lot of beautiful architecture.
Basil's Cathedral is the most beautiful building in the world, especially when you consider the interior exceeds the exterior. Orthodox Christians know how to celebrate God in their Architecture.
Lots of beautiful architecture there. Seen it with my own eyes. 😉
@@jasimmalik8078 uh, big claim and subjective. But okay. Beautiful building, yes, but I have seen many stunning buildings in numerous countries.
@@majorkade Beauty is Objective and subjective. God is objectively beautiful, the Devil is objectively beautiful, subjectivity is simply how much one prefers the beauty of Good vs the beauty of Evil. St. Basils is the most beautiful Church and is the epitome of Good Beauty.
@@jasimmalik8078 Taj Mahal begs to differ. And that ain't a religious building either.
Russia does have several trump cards, lots of countries depend on Russian oil, gas, minerals and probably most of all alluminium. It was Germany who asked for Nord Stream 2, Russia can sell all its spare gas to countries on Asia
Putin would have ordered the invasion already if he saw little opposition from Ukraine.
The way things stand there will be many casualties if he invades and this is very risky for his popularity (probably what he is most worried about)
Or maybe his just trolling.
The ground wasnt frozen. Its freezing now.
Putin isn't scared of Ukraine lol. Even this channel admits they'd win easily, just get bogged down in the occupation. He didn't want to invade in the first place. Cos this isn't about Ukraine, it's about NATO. Hell, it's not even about NATO as a whole, but America. Russia was getting sick of seeing American forces creeping closer to it every year. Doing nothing meant a slow death, until it was too late. The Russians wanted a NATO agreement to halt expansion in the 90s, but couldn't get one. So now they're finally forcing the issue.
Let's get serious Mr Anderson Russia can reduce Kiev to rubble without even stepping foot on Ukrainian soil. KH-47M2 Khinzal, 3M-14AE Kalibr, KH-59MK2 Ovod, 9K720 Iskander-M. The shortest operational range of these missiles is 300KM. Ukraine can not match that firepower.
How many stinger missiles ? .. he wonders.
Thanks for posting on TH-cam, loving yall
Ha. Russia’s military is the laughing stock of the world 😆
In war, it doesn't matter who's right but who's left.
Most underrated comment!!! Not heard that one before - it's brilliant 👏 love it ! 😏. On a more serious note, err hopefully not !
you forgot the 5th: you. "Ukraine not joining NATO!" is a core Russian interest, which Russia has said it time after times, Ukraine is not a core interest of the United States.
Putin doesn’t care about NATO. He believes Ukraine and Belarus are not proper countries but are part of a greater Russia. His aim is to weaken and destabilise Ukraine as he cannot take it. None of this helps his own people one iota.
@@jontalbot1 where is your proof?
@@leoyuanluo this might interest you: static.rusi.org/special-report-202202-ukraine-web.pdf
@@jontalbot1 you must read some news
1999 was signed a treaty of merger between Russia and Belaruss it will be now be implement for Russian there is not any border between the two countries an for Belarussian
@@jontalbot1 as many Russian he know Ukraine is a mess specially when the dominant ideology as now is Galician, he waits with calm it implose but he might deliver Dombas
Excellent content. As always. Thanks VisualPolitik EN
Well, this didn't age well 🤣
16:00 -16:11 lmao 🤣 and this video 10 days old , are you eating those words for breakfast?
This didn't age well.
While Russian gas may account for almost all of the natural gas used in Finland, you are painting a false picture here. Gas is a very marginal source of energy in Finland, therefore Finland is NOT highly dependent on Russian gas.
16:00 this video has aged like milk..
Putin should star in a Pizza Hut commercial
I think with Russia running out of Russians fast as its population contracted by almost a million last year alone it could really use those 40 million "spare Russians"in the Ukraine. With food as the new oil the enormous agricultural potential of Ukraine would be a nice bonus to say the least.
But at WHAT COST?🤔
@@josephphoenix1376 Well, the video suggests that Putin is well prepared to make his move at minimal cost and the suffering of the Russian people is of no concern to his regime. Basically people with power always want more power at any cost.
Lol there is no 40 millions Russians in Ukraine...... sure there is quite a lot of Russians in Ukraine but not that many.
@@trentl It's about Putin view on Ukrainians. Not far away from reality. Millions of slavic people will be cool for Russia
IT is along time Ukraine has enormous unexploited agricultural since 30 years; thanks to the sanction now Russia is self-suffisant and export weat
Madagascar has also potencials well administrated ukraine has a big future but in a long time
don't say in THE Ukraine if there is an Ukrainian around he will not be happy and I dont know why
I guess it's back to the drawing board on this one.
I'd like to see an update on this topic.
Well, the West just called his ... bluff? From the looks of it your previous video was spot-on. I think the Russians have jumped into a hornets nest and that even many of their own soldiers would prefer Russia joining the West rather than fight Ukraine civilians, maybe even relatives of theirs ... Problem remains that the dictator has command over some pretty big nuclear stingers himself.
russia: i have 4 major cards
16:34 europe: i have a croatian robot
‘’Courage taught me no matter how bad a crisis gets ... any sound investment will eventually pay off." - Carlos Slim Helu
Making it out at a young age is quite difficult. I started a side hustle at 17, saved up and made some good investments. l'm 28,live on my own and having a good life for myself. Big ups to you and everyone out there trying
@Hoshi Fuyo Yes it sure is. I put in money in investments and get profits. That 's how I make more money without working. This does not sound new to you right ?
Financial freedom is absolutely the perfect freedom
@Muyiwa MG There are lots of investments options such as real estate, stock market, forex, cr ypt os, passive income,
@@alexmontrey5372 This is awesome, please can you be of an assistance to me how can I connect with your broker?
Of course he can attack right now. But he's playing this as strategic chess match.
Putin is done if he's backed down. Biden is building him up big time. It's like almost daring Putin to invade. 😂😂😂
Strategy.
THAT IS PRESIDENT JOE'S STYLE !!! GO USA USA USA !!! GO TRUMP! FUCK EUROPE ANYWAY!
@@daawedge9324 yea. Without Europe, I dare the USA to stand alone.
no only dombas but it is 100% russian
5:34 watch the plane literally have a lag spike mid flight
Conclusion: Putin is a badass 🤣🤣 constantly dealing single handedly with the West 🤣
Please cover the Trucker Protests
None
He truly has put himself in a "no win" situation.
He would be a good case study on how not to manage foreign affairs.
The children in Kyiv are dying in their beds and I'm supposed to be intimidated at the prospect of wearing a sweater?
Keeping troops on border increases oil and gas prices, increasing their leaverage and reserves.
Well that aged well
I don’t consider the relationship between China and Russia significant. It’s clear it’s a “who’s gonna stab who first” deal.
Yeah pretty much that was revealed when the Chinese government commented on the Russian anniversary of Vladivostok
The CCP said that "Vladivostok was once a Chinese city and it should be returned"
not at all its going to be the strongest alliance ever military, economically because of genious strategists from Us neoconservative ( the one who invaded Irak) who sent Russia in the arms of China
Russian economy is similar in size to that of Texas…
Russia 2022: We promise not to invade Ukraine as long as Ukraine promises not to ask for help and if NATO promise not to help if asked.
Germany 1939: We promise not to invade Poland as long as Poland promises not to ask for help and if Allies promise not to help if asked.
Spot on 👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍👍
Funny when videos age so so quickly
I agree with your last point: A swift and surprising invasion would be key for it not to become a disaster and for limiting the risks. Just as with Krimea back in 2014.
Putin can easily overrun the Ukraine. What scares him is the threat of an insurgency. A sustained insurgency would break Russia and him.
@Tony Soprano
Probably, but at the same time, he is a gambler that is quick to take advantage of an opportunity when it shows up. And of course, events tend to have a nasty habit of not going according to plan.
Traditional game theory assumes perfect knowledge and logical thinking, but that is rarely the case in the real world. Invasion is highly unlikely, but a an uncertainty still exists. And so, the play continues. lol
@Tony Soprano US and NATO estimates for requirement of full scale invasion was 130.000 troops. That is also about ish the size of Ukraine's army.
The 130k was reached during the last days according to US intelligence. (That's also where the invasion date 16.02. Or headline "invasion is imminent" Came from: it is more about the troops capabilities than about their intention. A fact that, at least in Germany, was not much discussed. All that was left was: russia will invade soon.)
We need the Ruskies to try out our NLAWs before they expire, so they better be quick
@@cptrelentless80085 haha. I think that fits thebehaviour perfectly😄
The music is so insane so epic
We're experiencing what I regard as the "Canadization" of Russia. That is to say, a resource-rich nation that becomes dependant upon being able to export said riches to a more powerful industrial nation, while it's own national industry either atrophies or simply never grows to significance. And I say this as a proud-ish Canadian.
Welcome to the Hewers of Wood and Drawers of Water club, Russia. Please help yourself to a beer from the fridge, but leave your guns on the table.
We don't have the benefit of having no nations who want a piece of us around us. China licks their lips at Siberia, most of Western nations want more out of us, and the Caucasus will attempt to crack open and separate. The problem with this assumption is that Russia is in a safe position, where becoming a Canada is safe and beneficial, it is neither, and will most likely lead to Russia simply being torn apart by every passer-by. I have deep respect for Canada, you guys have beautiful nature and nice people, but the only nation that borders you is your ally.
Well, I wouldn't mind living a halcyon life with a steady job without needing to worry about wars. Looking forward to having this kind of life in Russia.
@@gent9358 Truth be.. Russia, with a democratic / republic president, more inclined to embrace west - could become the next economic power, not just military. Look how much very small Estonia managed to do in so little time.. The thing is, most west countries, including USA, love Russian people, are intrigue by the country and it's beautiful places.. but knowing that it is a totalitarian regime, with huge mafia and not so safe to travel, i really think it misses a lot of opportunities. Before Erdogan, Turkey was huge economically, especially in tourism. I guarantee you that west people would flock to visit Russia if it wasn't for the afford mentioned problems.
@@gent9358 you said it pretty well of what I was thinking. Although we do sell sell natural resources, we also have a sizeable automotive and aircraft industry. So we don’t put too many eggs in one basket. Where Russia is significantly more reliant on the fuel resource sector. One only wonders how damaging it’ll hit them as early as 2030 with the world moving away from natural gas, oil, etc…
@@gent9358 Russia, as it stands, will eventually fragment, and when Russia breaks, the entire world will suffer the consequences. What the scope of the damage will be or not be, I can only speculate, but Russia cannot maintain this state indefinitely, and at some point in the future, it _will_ fragment. The question is not whether this will happen, but how.
I know that's a potentially inflammatory thing to say, especially to someone who is Russian. As stated, I am Canadian. I've accepted for a long time that my country, which I do love, will eventually become absorbed into the United States. Maybe some people think this is a good thing, others a bad thing, and others won't care one way or another. Accepted doesn't mean that I like it, but it does mean that I understand why it will happen, and why it makes no difference how I feel about it. In the end Nations are just another thing we invented, another work of mankind like any other. The Question isn't why they should fall someday, but why they should be the sole exception.
What if Russia's plan was to take Berlin on day 1 from the beginning 😂
Both Russia and the Western Nations have dwindling populations due to their low birth rates and cannot afford to expend their youth. Hence no major conflict for the next 50yrs but there will be plenty of posturing and brow beating
The biggest loser of all would be Germany if a war did break out since it consumes most of Russia's raw materials which are mostly imported cheaply by rail.
It's a case of sabre rattling from Russia for it definitely needs Europe to help catapult it into the 21st Century.
Of the Ukraine's 44m population over 20% are ethnic Russians. Its hard to say what role they would play if a conflict did play out.. There are also ethnic Russians in neighbouring Belarus too.
There's no way Americans would dare to be directly involved Since the conflict would most likely consist of urban warfare - which renders battle space technology useless - due to the fear of civilian casualties caused by collateral damage.
Since the end of the Vietnam War most American deaths have been caused by error or friendly fire - thus the American public will not be able to tolerate a high rate of casualties of which would result from house to house combat. Thus a war in the Ukraine would be a proxy war between the US and Britain against Russia and it's former allies with France, Germany and most of the EU remaining neutral.
All in all Russia would win against the Ukraine and using boots on the ground could successfully invade the rest of Europe within a couple of Weeks. This is because highly developed nations have a greater dependency on their infrastructure to be fully functional imagine these economies without WiFi for instance, such Infrastructure which could be easily destroyed by air or by foot. Any how could any Westerner truly imagine a friend or relative engaged in hand-to-hand combat these days?
My 30yr old son would be traumatised if I asked him to pick-up my prescription on his way home from his work!
Very interesting.
Ok guys, you have some very dated info on Polish dependency on Russian gas. However it was still 55% last year(your chart shows about 70%), we are building "baltic pipe" from Norway which is basically a gas pipeline which, with increasing capacity of our gasport will have capacity to stop import from Russia altogether.
Even if you only had half of your current dependency on Russian gas your economy would be crippled.
The baltic pipeline is a pipe dream as Norway is already at max production capacity and according to its prime minister cannot replace any missing supplies from Russia.
@@Argozification except were doing the oil mining in Norway by PGNiG and we aren't obligated to sell this stuff anywhere. We can simply ship it from our rented oil platforms straight home. And the deals are not going to run out for decades, so get yourself educated before you spew contempt.
I don’t get it.
You presented Voveks cards.
And then… USA is calling the bluff.
With what cards?
USA is as Biden looks.
by not agreeing to any of his demands... ukraine is actually worthless to everyone including russia but they will have to pay to take it and keep it and deal with all the fallout
I think one of the things that took Putin by surprise, was Biden's comment is that the nord pipeline may not exist if things don't settle down.
I was very surprised by that statement.
It might sound like conspiracy theory, but I do believe that Putin (exKGB who worked in Germany) still has a lot of influence in Germany and they lobbied against nuclear power while only alternative was Russian gas, making Germany and other nations dependant.
Everyone forgets about the collapse of Yugoslavia in the 1990s
I have been of the belief that Putin's strategy is just sit there and do nothing. Under the idea just the constant threat will induce fatigue in the West. Until Putin gets whatever he wants just to make this all go away. Since a forever possible war is almost as bad as forever war.
America isn't going to withdraw from Europe. It has more than enough resources to sustain a presence in Europe. Even if European leaders do nothing, America is responsible for over 60% of NATO budget so it will remain in Europe
Why are wealthy Russians who have close ties to government leaders oligarchs but wealthy Americans who are close to US politicians: Adelson, the Kochs, the Mercers etc aren’t?
1. Russia's military has simply been rebuilt to the point where it can defend the Russian homeland. While its equipment and command and control were a mess in the 2000s, returning it to 'combat ready status' simply means it would be cost prohibitive for some other country to attack Russian territory. It doesn't mean Russia is adequately equipped to project power at any distance for a significant length of time.
2. Having foreign reserves of $600 billion wouldn't be much help in a war costing $1 billion per day. This is certainly what the US spent in Afghanistan, if not more. The US economy is far more productive per labor hour. If the average American worker had to work ten hours per year to support the Afghan campaign, the average Russian would have to work hundreds or even close to a thousand hours per year to pay for a 'hot' engagement in the Ukraine. This kind of resource diversion would led to shortages in civilian medical care, food, and maintenance on railroads, aircraft, and urban transit.
3. Europe might well balk at severe sanctions. This would be useful if Europe could supply Russia with computer chips. If the shortage is global, Russia would get 'leftovers', and these would be pretty meagre. If Russian labor is being diverted to support a war effort, any breakdown in infrastructure would inhibit exports to anywhere, whether Europe or China. Europe wouldn't have to impose sanctions, they might effectively come about from an inability of Russia to get product out the door.
4. China and Russia might 'like each other', or at least their leaders coordinate economic and foreign policies. This doesn't mean China can do much for anyone. China has realized it has a severe worker shortage and the workers it has have been misallocated. China desperately wants more factory workers and fewer paper pushers with Bachelor's degrees. It is pouring money into its own military, in some cases unproductively. If Russia starts leaning on China for help, China may well have to apologize with 'sorry, we can't do what you need' - even if they want to.
Vast amounts of Russian wealth have been stored in Western financial institutions or in Western assets. The US is likely to confiscate everything it can find that belongs to Putin or any of his friends, or anything that is obviously Russian but otherwise untraceable. If Russians aren't busily repatriating their assets to Russia, it's likely that Putin can sense his personal exposure, as well as the capacity of his allies to support him if their assets are stripped as well. This is probably a background signal of Putin's intentions.
Russia's 'population pyramid' is more like a 'population funnel'. Based on the CIA World Factbook, the number of women in the age range of 20 to 29 is around 7 million. Over the next ten years these women are likely to have about 11 million babies (fertility ratio of 1.6). If one multiplies 1.1 babies per year times a 72 year life expectancy, one gets a population of roughly 80 million in 2090. This means that the population of Russia will be shrinking by attrition alone at a rate of nearly 1 million per year.
If the US and a few other countries made it trivially easy for Russian women with young children to emigrate, the demographic shock on Russia would be severe. Russia would have to impose very strict foreign travel restrictions on its citizens, which might well result in economic or political chaos. It's unlikely that the US would do any such thing, but certain other countries might find this option attractive if their own demographic profiles continue to deteriorate the way they have over the last few decades.
2. Don't compare inflated war pricing of USA to Russia. There was no taxes increase for example for Syria. It's just part of regular budget. Russia is fighting it's wars much more economical, as military-industrial complex is not in control.
3. You are making it look like we are going into WW3. WW3 will be huge issue for everyone, mainly due to use of nuclear weapons. Local conflict does not mean it will require WW2-level of mobilization.
4. When was the last time you've been to China? I suggest you take a high-speed train from Shanghai to Shenzhen to see it. It's power is overwhelming. China is trying to downplay it to not scare everyone too soon.
On immigration - if you check statistics, you will see that Russia has systematic immigration surplus. I.e. people are immigrating TO Russia, not FROM Russia every year in the last ~10 years at least. "American dream" is dead not only for Americans, but also for Russians (since late 1990's).
@@BarsMonster "Don't compare inflated war pricing of USA to Russia." It costs money to field an army, and the money is a proportion of GDP. People sitting in tanks are not sitting at desks, or 'on their feet' in farms or factories. Russian military operations may be 'cheap' in comparison to the way the US fights wars, but it isn't free.
"You are making it look like we are going into WW3" A lot of people believe, when hostilities start, that "this will all be over with in a few months". Two years, five years, ten years, twenty years later, vast more treasure and life has been lost, and often there is little to show for it.
"When was the last time you've been to China?" I've never been to China. Building high speed rail is one thing a country like China can do well. However, they've messed up a lot elsewhere. The whole 'lie flat' business is a reaction to too much government, too much parental pressure, and overly demanding employers. The CCP is flailing around trying to cope with a population bust, bankrupt property developers, corrupt local government officials, and polluted food and water. I could visit monuments and 'showpiece' public works all day. That isn't the whole story, or even very much of the story.
@@meredithpoor666 Congratulations, you are the most delusional person I have ever run across here, and that's really saying something. I mean, you are *offensively* delusional. Russia's military doesn't have to "project power" , it literally has to just march across an imaginary line. Don't compare American costs to anything, it would cost America more than the world's GDP if it tried building a high speed rail system like China's. It doesn't cost much to bomb power stations, sanitation plants, and hospitals in the western part of Ukraine opposed to Russian control - just like Putin did in Syria until he ground the rebellion into dust. Whatever your nonsense about Russian demographics, you might want to note that America's fertility rate is about where Russia's is. You're in the same boat - if their population pyramid looks like a funnel or donut or whatever your silliness is, so does yours.
But your nonsense about China takes the cake. China wants more factory workers and fewer people with university degrees? Are you high? China is pumping eye watering sums of money into its education system and it graduates 8x more STEM degree holders than America. You very *obviously* haven't been to China - all you know of it is negative Western propaganda; and it is propaganda, your Congress just allocated $500 million dollars to buy negative press about China. How pathetic. All the problems you've mentioned are nothing more than pebbles thrown at a rolling freight train.
China has all the technology and capital Russia could ever need. All your stupid sanctions would do is demolish German industry and leave the field wide open for Chinese companies. It would force Russia to sell its gas at a discount to China, so China wins yet again.
lol... whatever makes you sleep better at night.
Western countries must remove restrictions on Russian youth so they can move out of Russia easily. Stealing young healthy Russians and moving them to the west would be a great idea of weakening Russia
"If Russia really wanted to...." he is...
One doesn’t experience self-transcendence, the illusion of self only dissipates - 🎈
All in all, i worry most about the "information war". Maybe this would also do a good video topic for content like this @VisualPolitik EN?
At least here in Germany, the news, expert discussions, commentaries etc dont seem to add up to the actual scenario in ukraine. Either journalist and Politicians have fallen fully and without any doubting for Putin's ruse or one could get the feeling, thst there is a method behind the exaggeration, the hysteria (afterall twice in 12 months they have called the invasion to be "imminent" without anything happening...):
Without an attack on Nato members ever being in discussion and USA, Germany and France speaking of "grave consequences" only in the sense of sanctions not militarily defending ukraine, nato had sent troops to the east. Journalists often mainly repeat american and Nato statement (like "invasion imminent" and "no withdrawl to be confirmed (less then 24 h after the announcement as if it were mouse click)" without adding the relevent context or critical thinking. And with that i am not saying Russian statement dont need this either. No. But both sides are playing with information and desinformation with facts and how they are to be interpreted and we seem to be falling for it...
I think with the de nazification Germany refuses to raise another Joseph goebells to spin propaganda.
Grab a bag of Popcorn and watch the fireworks. But it's going to be a long intro.
What makes you confident this channel is all that different? Why're you asking them about the media? They're media themselves.
@@ArawnOfAnnwn true. This Channel is also part of the media. But why should I not ask them. Maybe i asked other "the medias" as well to look at the topic.
What makes me confident @VisualPolitik EN is different? Nothing. I dont watch their content often enough to judge. Also it sometimes is difficult to see the difference between subjectivity on their (the "media") side or a biased definition of "objectivity on my end (that i also apply to the news etc). But this video alone seems to be different to most I have seen in the news recently.
But even if not: A video about the information wars is already interesting enough, whether it adhears to my definition of objectivity or not, don't you think? 😀
@@karlheinzotto3701 Fair enough.
China pledging troops to Putin is rarely mentioned.
Putin really outplayed his hands on this one
No
@@007furious yes
Why not make mention of salient points to better illustrate historical back drop of this conflict?
You seem to underestimate the China card. It may weaken Russia but strengthens China which anyway poses a greater threat to the global order than Russia. From a realpolitik POV, the German admiral Schonbach was correct. Making an ally of Russia would be more helpful, even necessary, to stare down Chinese aggression.
Yeah maybe so or maybe not. What if Putin won't stop ? What if what he want not just Ukraine but expand to ex-Soviet block ? A new threat from Russia would help US something to throw on Europe while focus on China. Europe power like German really need to shake off from pacifist POV and to face the need of have its own powerful military. Like Japan should be doing in Asia
Impossible as long as the NATO dogs cower under the USA. Wish they would realize they have greater interests working with Russia.
@@khan-cricket That's the point. If you make an ally out of him, he will also have the chinese threat to face. He won't make an enemy out of both sides, and he can't be friends to both sides. He needs money and western money is more attractive than Chinese money so far. The point is to to try and work out a deal with him.
@@sameerindirock No. I think it is too late to deal with such mean. China is watching now and every moves Putin makes, China will learn from it. Now it is time to show some tough move before US have to deal with stiuation like this again in Asia
@@khan-cricket That just means stronger China. Putin also is not comfortable being over-reliant on China, but lack of tact from the west means he will go that way anyway. A China without Russia could be leveraged for oil and gas. But China with Russia reduces such a threat to China a great deal.
l think the optimism that Russia wouldn't invade has been dashed.
In some ways this is good as it will force the EU to move to Green energy and look for their own gas reserves
Like india with cowdung?
Just had a kid the world needs to keep it together
America should be staying out of this and let EU countries and EU members of NATO handle the negotiations. A major of part of Putin's 'invasion' mind game of Ukraine is about America and lessor extent NATO and the EU. It would make more sense for the EU to work with Russia with out America's 'we are the leader of the free world' interference.
We tried that. Remember the Serbian conflict? The EU was whining for the US to do something.
Well yes but NATO members are incompetent US dogs. He did try to deal with the EU leaders but ultimately turned to Biden seeing how incompetent they are.
I guess you were wrong about Putin not really wanting to invade Ukraine. That's not quite the way things turned out.
Well this didn't age well lol…👍
I actually believe this is not really a NATO problem but an EU problem because one of the central pillars of the EU constitution is Security. If the UE cannot collectively sort out this response from a united
people of 450 million which is three times the population of Russia then the days of EU co-operation are numbered and a period of deglobalisation will come to the fore. EVERY MAN FOR HIMSELF.
The "divided" NATO and 🇪🇺 have never been this united in recent history.
Putin isn't a ♟️ player, he doesn't think many moves ahead.
Putin is no fool and he is right about the NATO encroachment. That said, he is still tyrannical and is about to launch an offensive that will see many Ukrainian and Russian lives lost and great financial hardship for both. He himself will not suffer or sacrifice anything while sitting in the Kremlin with all his concealed wealth.
@@SimonBrisbane Why do you people believe he has to invade all of Ukraine? He can just annex more territories if he wants at a similar cost to Crimea and Donbass.
Thanks bro great time
This helps a lot with my trading. As long as the invasion is limited , Europe will always choose soft sanctions that Russia will simply brush off. Russia boosted its foreign reserves to insulate itself from western sanctions and its interference on its decisions. The west too will have to free it’s economy if it’s to make independent decisions. Russia did their homework, the west, not so much and unfortunate for Ukraine
spot on!
It will take some time but the sanctions will eventually run Russia into the ground. Putin’s personal anschluss will come back to haunt Russia. I hope the people rise up against the mad man.
@@SimonBrisbane this will affect the whole world economy. We are fools if we think russians did not think through these sanctions. These war moves are made after considering all worse outcomes from it. NATO/Ukraine should accept their liberal diplomacy failure and accept to be a neutral state.
@@SimonBrisbane However, as Europe remains dependent on Russian resources, it’s unlikely for sanctions to be crashing. A more meaningful one would have targeted the energy industry but EU needs gas especially during the winter (Part of the reason Putin chose winter and during high gas prices). By the time the weather becomes warmer or gas prices drop (maybe an Iran nuclear deal), Putin plans on being out of there or would have installed a puppet government. And EU would have moved on and started cozying up to Russia with a energy deal … EU need to accelerate its independence on Russian resources (that is the long term solution)
Last part aged like fine milk.