Will The Kit Plane Industry Collapse in 2024? Find Out NOW!

What would a recession mean for the homebuilt aircraft industry in 2023? Should you start building an Experimental yet? Is it worth getting into aviation right now? Here's what Mark Schaible of Sonex Aircraft LLC had to say about downturns in the economy and how they affect the business. Plus, my take on what that means for other companies and us builders.
Full Sonex Interview from 2021:
• Sonex Aircraft Intervi...
By Dan Johnson S-LSA List:
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[@kevindennis9227]

I think there will be a significant slow down in the kit build industry. The pandemic was a unique time. Lots of people working from home. They were traveling less. A lot of people reevaluated their end careers and went ahead and retired giving them more time at home. All in all, there was an incredible increase in the demand for kit planes as we are all aware. Wait times skyrocketed due to demand as well as supply chain issues. The costs of everything also followed the demand/supply curves and skyrocketed. But now were have people back at work. A lot of those remote jobs are heading back to the office. Retirees are facing down a recession and many are starting to tighten up their finances. There will be a significant slow down in the demand for these aircraft. In fact, I think many of the pandemic kit purchases will be up for sale here in the near future as people realize that they don't have the time or money to continue building anymore. Might as well buy a kit that someone bought in 2020 instead of a brand new one that costs a lot more now. Those that are buying each sub kit and then putting off on avionics and engine are waking up with new increased prices on engines and avionics. So much so, that it is causing people to abandon their kits as inflation has blown past their budgets. Honestly, I am kind of rooting for a recession in the aviation sector in hopes that GA prices might come back down a little bit from orbit. The last 2 years has been great for those that were already in it. Just like houses. If you had one, watching the value skyrocket was great. But for those looking to break in, it has been very disheartening.

[@LeftSeatAdventures]

Very well said, I 💯% agree that the aviation market is a bit of a bubble waiting to pop. Have you seen the prices of ragged out Cessna 150s lately?! 😳 I may or may not be sitting on some cash waiting for the opportunity you mentioned....

[@jeremylauer5234]

great insight and with a pending recession, people might be looking at buying parts of a kit that they can afford now with the cash they have on hand rather than financing a whole project. That way they will have parts on had to progress with a kit as they are deep in a recession. The key is to not over extend yourself if there really is a looming recession in the coming months\year. Be a little more tight with your money and maybe plan to have a larger safety net. Thanks

[@LeftSeatAdventures]

Spot on Jeremy, making the right financial decisions at the right time will be key. My plan is to buy the individual sub kits over the course of my build. It will take longer overall, but less up front financial commitment.

[@jeremylauer5234]

@@LeftSeatAdventures I might be in the opposite boat, i can afford the whole kit now without financing it and might place that order soon and the wait time will be okay (12 months) due to other projects going on. additionally, when i need the engine and avionics in a couple years, might be through the recession time. I'm planning on a 3-4 year build plan based on still having a full time job.

[@LeftSeatAdventures]

Awesome 👍! Keep your eyes open for opportunity, I expect there to be people selling new engines and avionics packages through this time. There's always examples of that, but I expect more. I know I'll be looking for them 😉!