It's pathetic that this country is still on life support from an economic crisis 17 years ago. When a sentence starts _"Since 2008..."_ I just... _* sigh *_
The concequences of Austerity, I'm afraid. Edit: I suppose you tossers in the replies would prefer I say "Unchecked Austerity" just because we have it worse than other places.
You get what you vote for I'm afraid. We had the chance to start to turn things around and stop offering socialism to the rich when we had the A.V. referendum, but apparently people are quite happy having only two choices both of which don't have the country's interests at heart.
@@effluxi9587 hahah what , austerity was a reaction to the economy that was in taters post recession , in hindsight it was not the answer but was a response not a cause
It is pretty amazing. Iceladn taht was in fre fall 2008 turned it around mroe than the UK (The Icelandic currency not even convertible or available at times)... Most scary is Brexit was eight (8) years after 2008 so it is an ...ongoing fiasco for 17 years.
😂Thats what the term managed decline is for, the government manages more things than ever but everything has declined from healthcare to the economy. Cooked country.
And they obsess over keeping intrest rates higher than inflation, because then more people will save money in their bank accounts, so bankers have more money to work with. The bank of England serves bankers first, the ultra wealthy second, and all of us last. That extra money being saved in bank accounts isn't being spent or invested back in the UK in its entirety, because the banks are buying foreign assets
Their loss is covering for the fiscal space they gave the government and more importantly the economy during crisis. It does make sense in a way, if they don't do that they may end up having to create inflationary pressure if a new crisis arises, so they are maybe being careful not to get caught in an inflationary loop if something does happen.
@JorgeTorresH this policy is not anti- inflationary at all. They can't reduce the amount of bonds in existence, only sell themto someone else, so when the crisis hits (even though we're already in a crisis but whatever) they will have the same capacity to buy government bonds issued for this purpose, and the same capacity for QE as they would have if they hadn't done QT. This policy ironically raises the burden of debt by increasing interest payments and therefore total spending without getting anything more from it. It's pouring money into the hands of big capital
LOL buying U.K gilts that use for Spending?? I can just imagine you clearly. Perhaps your statement should include don;t print money to give to workers during covid too.
@@allykhan8594 the difference is the amount of money and the distribution, most COVID money didn't go to workers but to the already rich/landlords/businesses etc. if I give you 1k pounds but increase the money supply by 100s of billions you actually have less money.
The whole argument for keeping the central bank independent is based on the belief that it will act professionally and impartially to maintain a healthy UK economy. But what if it doesn’t? Are they actually accountable?
Turkey 's government forced its central bank to keep interest rates artificially low during early COVID and that lead to hyperinflation. I don't think it's central bank independence that's the problem.
Central bank shouldn’t exist at all. It’s ridiculous to assume independence or direct control over it would keep it from being impartial or completely corrupt. Something that powerful will never be free the hands of those in power who would want use and abuse it for their own gain.
Did the same to Truss, I don't like Truss or Starmer but the way the Bank of England can just decide on a whim to crash the economy and make all our lives even more miserable doesn't sit right with me 😐
I would argue Liz Truss’s economic problems were a lot more self-inflicted - people may not like Rachel Reeves’ budget but it was actually very tame with very little change contrast this with Liz Truss who attempted to make very large reforms (such as completely cutting the top rate of tax) all in one go which surprised the markets The ongoing problems with Labour are more due to a long term view that things will not get better rather an immediate panic which happened under Liz Truss Gary Stevenson explained this very well Id recommend
@@franzusgutlus54 I absolutely agree I may not like BofE policy but I’d much it maintains it’s independence rather than be dictated by government policy which may not always be in my best interest
The Bank of England (BoE) is currently implementing policies aimed at stabilizing the UK economy amid various challenges, including high inflation and labor market shifts. While some analysts express concerns about these measures potentially leading to economic downturns, the BoE's actions are intended to balance growth and stability.
Bank failures are likely to continue increasing due to rising interest rates, as it causes their commercial paper and treasuries to become devalued. To prevent a severe economic downturn, it is necessary to implement a freeze on interest rates. Simultaneously, the govt should support the industry in boosting gas and oil production to lower fuel prices. The anti-oil stance only contributes to higher energy costs, leading to inflation throughout the economy. By reducing interest rates, tightening the money supply, cutting government expenditures, and increasing the availability of affordable fuel, inflation will decrease, and the economy will thrive. Unfortunately, various conflicting agendas make it unlikely for all these measures to be implemented, resulting in a recession and persistent inflation.
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Well as an ex-grunt job worker all I can say now is: If you want to go work in the grit, dust, and smog then be my guest. My great grandad died in a mine collapse. My steel-working grandad nearly died in a steel mill, my Dad nearly died twice after falling the height of two houses. All of us had several injuries on the go constantly from working the jobs. And my Dad's generation and mine were shafted out of decent wages and savings at every turn. You want manufacturing and grunt jobs back? Go for it! I'll die in the streets out in what remains of fresh air and with sun on my face before I go back to being a wage-slave. This nation just throws people to the grinder either way. So if my choice is which way do I want to suffer for nothing then I'll choose my own poisons rather than be forced to swallow an industrial one. Besides robots will be doing 95% of manufacturing roles by the time 2050 rolls around. No more poverty and soft or hard slavery for the poor! Better to die free and by your own choosing than to work 60 hours a week on nights in a factory hellhole industrial estate. Blade Runner chose the Middlesbrough skyline as inspiration for it's dystopian mood setting. And you want more of that? As a Northerner who has seen where steel pride led to the destruction of the planet, all I can say is I won't participate further in the manufacturing of Hell on earth!
If the government can't use the Bank of England, what if instead they create a shell corporation that says they'll sail to the Caribbean to trade goods, but instead just buys up government debt and exchanges it for stock in the company?
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It's not normal for interest rates to be as low as they were for so long. This made it crap for savers and allowed people with wealth to borrow cheaply and buy up more goods. There was literally no point opening a savings account when you're getting less then 1% annual return.
With all the brilliant economic brains in the Bank of England and the Exchequer Civil Servants, one would have thought that someone could have come up with something a little more sophisticated than the blunt one-size-fits-all policy of interest rate control. All that does is fuel price rises by manufacturers to meet their increased cost of funding and punish the poorer in society whereby mortgages and rents go up which constitute a large proportion of their income.
They are doing what they are expected to do (by those who put them there): provide conditions for the rich to become richer on the expense of the rest of the population.
Okay, so come up with a better strategy to try and fix post-Covid inflation then without the raising interest rates, that's literally what all G7 countries did from the US, Canada, EU, Australia, it's the most effective tool against inflation that central banks has. Do you want Turkey level of inflations? Because that's what Erdogan did, he interfered with the central bank and forced them to keep interest rates low instead of raising it, that decision made the Lira value plummet and Turkey reached 60% inflation in March of 22'.
There was one monetary policy option the UK could have used during the pandemic when inflation was badly needed. Instead of quantitative easing Bank of England could have just forgiven the government the bonds they held on their books (so completely canceled) instead of issuing more bonds. However this approach may have meant higher interest rates needed post-pandemic. Obviously now that would make no sense because they are using the quantitative tightening (in conjunction with higher interest rates) to quell inflation.
Of course this is the actual explanation of why global inflation has been the absolute norm since the 1970s. Everybody loves inflation when they're selling but hates it when buying. Blame Democracy and the State. Anyone else blaming other factors don't understand basic economics
There is absolutely no need to sell these bonds at a loss. They could keep them to maturity and the government could pay them off at face value. The BOE does not need the money. Its madness.
Except your assumption that BOE "does not need money" is obviously wrong, BOEs job isn't to raise or not raise money, it's about adjusting money supply. In time of uncertainty, they do QE, in times of inflation they tighten. Obviously holding bonds to maturity is a form of weak tightening. But its really misses the point of what BOE are doing completely. They are controlling the balance sheet, I don't think you get that, obviously waiting to a bonds maturity is going to be much a weak weaker form of reducing the balance sheet than actively selling. So, yea, I honestly think you missed the point of QT entirely.
@ I do get it. They are reducing liquidity, in the mistaken belief that excess demand is causing inflation. But it’s not. The economy is flat lining, there is spare capacity and a lack of demand. So QT is going to put the economy into recession and kill gdp growth. The opposite of what the government is trying to achieve.
@@AB-zv6dz No, the job of the BofE is to provide the government with the money it requires to function, and it's the government's job to control the supply of money in the economy via taxation. The BofE is an unelected body and should not be in control of the economy which it is at present under such a weak chancellor.
@@AB-zv6dzQT has the effect of reducing demand in the economy through a reduction in liquidity. Which will only reduce inflation if the source of the inflation is an overheating economy which clearly it is not. This will have the affect of causing a recession through a decrease in growth. QT is the last thing the economy needs right now.
@@garysmith5025 LOL gary smith that is an awful take. You need to get off the youtube comments, yikes. The BOEs job is not to "provide the government with money", the BOE controls monetary policy. Government raises money through taxation and borrowing. BOE may buy from the government, but thats it. The governments job is NOT to control the supply of money via taxation. Monetary policy controls the supply of money (hint, its in the name so its extra simple for you gary). Taxation is FISCAL policy. Taxation does not control the supply of money. Obviously. The supply of money is indirectly impacted via fiscal policy but the BOEs job is squarely to manage the money supply. So no Gary, you clearly have no idea how things work. BOE controls monetary policy, govt control fiscal policy and the bank does not fund the government but it can buy gilts in order to control the money supply.
Yes, in retrospect Band of England injected too much liquidity into the economy. However no one complains when their mortgage rates decrease* or they have to pay less tax temporarily. *Except for savers of course. In some ways our economy has been very cruel to savers for decades and severely disincentivised saving.
It's easy to blame people like the BOE and starmer, conservatives and so on, people don't find it so easy when they have to pay more taxes or gas prices. Things have been so incredibly cheap for so long, electric simply didn't just double, it was frozen for too long and now we are paying in reality what we should. People are selfish, don't want to pay more in tax but will happily take benefits of paying tax, and they'd rather make the economy worse than pay more tax, with or without full knowledge.
@@fewik8567 Partly true but part of what's driving inflation is that productivity growth has stalled. As our population ages and retires there are fewer workers to produce the goods and services society wants and needs. That means the workers need to be more productive just for the economy to stand still. That should be possible with better technology, machines, more efficient processes etc. but it's not really happening in the UK. Consequently inflation is increasing because demand is growing faster than supply.
Missed a lot in this video. Quantitative tightening is seen as another mechanism to reduce liquidity in the economy and dampen inflation. Also, QE has been blamed for large asset appreciation, so surprised everyone is pushing back against QT. If the BoE reduced interest rates, provide QE and inflation rose, then the currency would crash or debt would become even more expensive.
@@Zenkrypt Sure, but if other countries aren't experiencing a similar inflation, will greatly impact the currency. Will also increase borrowing costs which will require more debt.
Right but I don't think the case has been made for the depth or the timing of this tightening. Furthermore given the irregularity of the size of borrowing for Covid I would have thought some alignment of monetary and fiscal policy would be in order in settling that bill. Instead we have another fairly myopic looking decision from the BoE.
The UK is economy is collapsing, we are in financial ruin and there are rising taxes due to a combination of 4 reasons: 1. Recession in 2008/2009 - Leading to government borrowing, bank bailouts and austerity measures . Due to austerity measures, there has been a lack investment in the NHS and public services since 2008/09. This lack of investment has now caught up with us as its effect has been more noticeable in recent years. Back in 2007, the UK was one of the worlds strongest economists predicted our GDP would grow 3% per year. Also in 2007, £1 was worth around $2. From around 1997 until 2009, the UK economy was stronger than any other G7 country. It took the UK until around 2020 for the UK economy to go back to 2007 levels. To give you an indication of how bad this recession was, the UK government debt as a percentage of GDP before the recession was 41%. In 2012 this jumped to 83% and right now is greater than 98% ! 2. Brexit - Resentment from the recession played a part in false stories told by ministers to gain voter support. Economists and analysts at Cambridge Econometrics found that, by 2035, the UK is anticipated to have three million fewer jobs, 32% lower investment, 5% lower exports and 16% lower imports, than it would have had been. The report states that the UK will be £311bn worse off by 2035 due to leaving EU. The government borrowed more money to pay the divorce bill triggering markets to believe if we could ever pay this back, so the value of the pound dropped, inflation increased. Up until Brexit in 2020 the UK had year-on-year GDP growth. However, the GDP growth from 2008/09 to 2020 is a false picture as the growth in these years was due to austerity measures. Brexit made our situation much, much worser. Our politicians lied to the public e.g. Boris Bus, blaming migrants, we will be better off after Brexit and our economy will recover due to UK trade-deals etc. The economic risk due to Brexit was huge and then Covid happened. 3. Covid - The government borrowed more money again as we had to bail out the whole economy. There was massive drop in GDP again and it crashed, all business were shutting down. The UK is the only G7 country to never economically recover after covid. Yes, we had coronavirus vaccination costs, support schemes, grant and loans but all European countries did similar (apart from furloughing the nation cost) and the whole world was in the same boat. Let’s not forget the PPE scandal, bounce back loan fraud, eat-out-to-help-out and ministers holding shares in vaccination firms. 4. Political mismanagement in all of the above - constant leadership changes, rising crime rates. UK government borrowing is out control leading to higher inflation and rising taxes. Russia/Ukraine conflict, I’m excluding from the 4 reasons as all European countries are in the same boat, other European countries are more impacted as they rely greater than UK on Russian gas and trade. High streets in some areas are like a ghost town, Debenhams etc has gone. National wages have stagnated across the country. Home ownership is a right only reserved for the rich. Less and less deposable income for the average Brit. The government appears to be nothing to prevent the average Brit from becoming poorer. I can write even more but getting angry whilst typing. The UK is in a complete and utter mess. We are in cost of living crisis. The government doesn’t have enough money and neither does the public. It will take one or two generations not years to fix it.
There is a cost of quantity easing, and it is inflation. Because the quantity easing it self is basically the fancy way of describing and implementing the money printing.
It will only cause inflation if too much of the extra money is left in the economy, combine QE with increased progressive taxation and you avoid inflation.
We do know, quantitative tightening is supposed to help reduce inflation and stabilize the pound. TLDR is just saying they're doing for "independence" but they're not, there's a reason for everything they do, it's not some random decision. Although the choice to sell the debt instead of letting it mature is definitely controversial for economists, the Federal reserve and ECB just let their debt mature.
We do. They are performing a ridiculous dance called Quantitative Tightening that serves no purpose in the current economic situation. Why? To hide the fact that they lent the UK government money. The whole thing is a farce. The other thing they are doing is keeping interests rates artificially high because they have a long stated of goal of keeping interest rates above the level of inflation so that lenders and saver make more money leaving their cash in banks. The whole situation is ridiculous and is a good part of the reason why the UK is in the economic state it is in.
Bailey always was a fool. Listen to some of his nonsense after Brexit !!! His predecessor (Mark Carney) was brilliant, and now in the run to be Canadas next PM.
Bailey has always been incompetent. How he got the job after the shambles of the FCA is unbelievable. Although Mark Carney wasn't much better either imo.
Carney left rates at near zero for 10 years, helping create the massive the bubble were now in. Almost everyone agrees it was one of stupidest decisions ever taken by the central banks, but used to transfer wealth to the super rich. Their wealth has exploded since 2010. Never in history were rates left so low, for so long. Money was practically free. The people must now pay it back. Carney is a technocrat nothing will change in Canada.
When QT has such a massive impact on the interest rate there is already a massive problem with the QE period. More specifically there wasn't the demand for the huge amount of yields in the first place. You could argue that this was because of the crisis but on the other hand the money should seek risk free assets in a crisis. To get money back into state bonds they have to be more valuable than real estate or the stock market. But all the money from QE artificially inflatet these markets. So the budget has to compete with a QE market in QT period.
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Because gilt rates and redemption value are fixed and the bank of England is selling those assets at a loss, the loss is directly related to the difference in the coupon and the current interest rate. That is all money the govt has to find. Rachel Reeves can instruct the BoE to stop selling these bonds despite their "independence" and hasn't, why not? Do labour really want Austerity 2.0?
I expect she is damned if she tells them to stop, and damned if she doesn't. At least at the moment she can claim there is no intervention ongoing, this is just the market adjusting to reality.
Austerity is a myth. All it means is that the rate of increase in spending is lower. In real terms funding has continued to increase for decades, but not as fast as it used to.
Debt is always made out to be one of the worst things you can get into and there are so many videos and adverts to help reduce or get out of debt. Yet most governments seem to not care about getting out of debt but getting more into debt is the solution to all the problems. No doubt someone is making money somewhere.
Debt is seen as bad for the average person to be in because the average person generally isn't investing the money they indebted. A business or government is a ~good~ thing, since it should mean that the business or government is maximising investment now to make higher returns later. For example, I want to build a bridge to allow trade to take place at a higher rate. To get my money back for the bridge I place a toll on either side. If I wait until I have the money, I will miss out on the toll fees for the time that I was saving. Whereas if I take debt at a lower interest than the toll fees generate in that time, then I am overall better off having taken the debt. I also know the prices of material, labor etc with more certainty now than I do in the future. The amount of debt and confidence in repayments is the concern here, not the fact that there is a debt at all.
People and nations buy debt. China and others have been selling off US debt bonds for most of last year. Unfortunately Britain is not doing so and could end up in a bigger mess than it is.
@@IfISpeakBigTrouble assumes competence in decision making and that the reason for government borrowing is infact a net good or has output greater than the cost of borrowing and also does not account for the fact that much of borrowing involves printing money and hence devaluing the money of the governments primary stackholder (i.e., the people). A prime example of this recently is increasing costs of valuable producers (farmers) via unnecessary inheritance tax whilst simultaneously giving away the same amount of tax expected to be raised to foreigner farmers abroad. Supposedly according to labour these new taxes on farmers are to help balance the books but there will be many secondary effects that will negate any good of balancing the books whilst simultaneously sounding ridiculous by begging the question why the books need balancing in such a way whilst we overspend on nonsense such as giving money to foreign farmers abroad. We could avoid borrowing if we prioritised spending or the borrowing we did do could be better targetted directly into actual investments that provide returns to british people if the borrow was not because of government overreach and spend but after a sensible fiscal programme that didnt involve literally taxing brits to pay foriegn farmers.
Mainly because debt isn't a bad thing. Debt just means you own someone some money. For example, if you every hire a service and you pay for it on completion, you are in debt at the moment they have finished. Most likely only for like an couple of hours, but it's still technically debt. Scale that up to a country or big corpo, where services/projects can take years as can the bureaucracy of moving money, and that's why they are always in debt. It's by design and definition. Add in inflation reducing the real cost of standing debts it actually makes it cheaper for them to be in debt. Up to a point. There is always a line when the debt is to much, but where that line is can vary and change.
The idea that all debt is bad only comes from financial illiteracy. Knowing the difference between good debt and bad debt is very important in people's financial education. Borrowing money to buy liabilities (things that lose money like a car) is bad debt. Where as borrowing money to invest into assets (things that go up in value or make money such as homes, businesses or even investing in education to learn a skill to make more money in the future) is good debt. Government's do the same as well where they'll borrow money to invest into the economy to fuel growth (leading to higher tax receipts) is something government all over the world have been doing for centuries. They invest in the things like infrastructure ie transport links that makes it easier to do business and therefore boosting the economy. It is why governments are generally not that bothered about trying to pay off their debt if the economy carries on growing cos it means they can still service their debt. It why governments are obsessed with growing the economy. Starmer is betting big on AI hoping the investment will lead to lots of business opportunities and better productivity
This is a terrible video. Please take an economist consultant to check your scripts. Quantitative tightening is a tool to control inflation, just like quantitative easing helped create inflation with economic stimulus. It also mitigates the devaluation of the pound. The BoE is not just "trying to prove its independence" which is a ridiculous statement. Blaming the government financial problems on the central bank is the oldest trick of governments with no fiscal control, a lore repeated continuously by Turkey, Brazil, Argentina, and so on.
@mnm1273 it lowers the amount of money in the money supply, which would therefore decrease inflation. We did a lot of QE during COVID, and now it's come back to bite us.
I agree to an extent. QT is all about reducing inflation. Is that the priority right now? That's questionable, it's pushing up interest rates, which is bad for growth. However it's certainly the BOE's priority, as its the only thing they are judged on (they think), as their single target is of course to keep inflation below 2%. When all you have is a hammer, everything start to look like a nail.
@mnm1273 So the BofE sells the bonds, investors use their income to buy bonds instead of spending on goods/services, thus reducing inflation. That's how I think it would work.
We own the Bank of England. Their "independence" is limited and can be overridden in law. The combination of quantitative tightening and high interest rates is making our theoretical debt (where the left pocket borrows from the right and we become in debt to ourselves) considerably higher through higher interest rates. The bank is not working for the country; we are all working to fuel financial greed. Who will end up paying for casino banking? You probably guessed it...
We shud just print like Venezuela innit! Usury is madness but the poor love it when they become rich and hate it when they are poor. The rich love it as they are mostly atheist, need to have fun before cashing out.
print more money so my little kids can have a warm home? What about children eating gadoogadoo in Indonesia? Print them some as well. Print more, my parents live alone, INDEPENDENT and need more money for food and heating. Print more more money the Hospitals are failing. Some can't even get sex changes, print them some too, and asylum seekers need better hotels.
"Turmoil" in the bond markets does not mean the UK economy is crashing or collapsing. It just means bond yields are higher than expected and borrowing cost is higher. But the demand for borrowing still remains, and businesses are still investing.
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I'm confused. You release videos about the "pound collapsing" and "a market meltdown", but the currency charts show otherwise. Sure, the UK pound has become cheaper against the USD and Euro recently, but the decline isn't THAT severe. From January to June 2004, the GBP/EUR ranged from 1.1524 to 1.1800, reaching a high of around the 1.2150 mark by the end of the year. Currently, it's at 1.1880, similar to its peak in early 2024 and still well above 1.1524. This doesn't seem like a collapse to me. So, why the dramatic headlines?
Because GBP value usually goes up when 1) interest rates go up and 2) when you can earn more from guilts. Labour have managed to engineer a scenario where GBP falls in value while these are happening.
As a lay person, I usually equate finances with driving a high powered car. If you accelerate from very slow to very fast, and vice-versa, you get a nice smooth transition, but if you keep stamping hard on the throttle and then the brake, things are pretty rough. Surely if these fiscal transitions were more gradual markets would have more time to make gradual adjustments. Speed of change seems to be the modern curse with almost everything these days. No wonder people find it hard to adjust; the pace of life seems no longer on a human scale!
The fact I got an advert for "Islamic property insurance" on this video (I'm British) tells you how utterly decrepit our governments have been to us while still failing economically
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Lol Gary the multimillionaire posing as a man of the people in front of his carefully contrived kitchen scene, complete with bottle of fairy liquid and £20 kettle, asking people to donate to his patreon 😂
Interesting video. Yet, any government from any political ideology would struggle with the highest nominal UK sovereign debt ever alongside bond yields inevitably rising from the lowest ever since the inception of central banking - bloody difficult task for anyone ?
Spent on what? Furlough ? Lockdown ? Benefits ? There were no tax cuts for the rich. There weren’t any tax cuts at all… the reason why money is spent is there is literally no growth. We have a tremendously expensive energy policy, expensive health and infrastructure policy that literally doesn’t work…. But politicans keep the boat going by just throwing cheap money at it. Rachel from accounts is finding out that when a country has zero growth it cannot tax it’s way to growth. Without growth no more taxes. But inflation increases public pay costs (without increases in taxes) so basically what’s happening is because the economy isn’t growing, everything is more expensive and we don’t have more money to pay.
The BoE's argument that it needs to keep interest rates above the inflation rate might possibly make sense, if the rates were close. They are not. There's loads of headroom there, more than almost any time in recent history. They are solving a problem that doesn't exist and in the process transferring money out of the economy and into the pockets of bankers. Who'd have thought a bank would do something like that? 🙄
The BofE used to target monetary stability. In the GFC this got reinterpreted as financial stability. Suddenly, making sure the balance sheets of key companies were in the black took priority over the 2% inflation goal.
Yes it is. Also great video by you guys thank you. Also the Bank of England Act 1998 provides the option for the Chancellor to tell the bank what to do if its an "economic necessity. Its actually there in the legislation so Reeves can to a certain extent do what she wants if its urgent which explains the QE after 2008 and during the pandemic. However both times we had Tory Government on power so they didn't take the opportunity that the low interest rates and loads of central bank bonds gave them.
06:00 "This can be good for governments because markets will generally offer you lower borrowing rates" After you've already correctly identified multiple times that the central bank can't go bankrupt - so why care about borrowing from markets.
TLDR completely dismissed Liz Truss blaming the bank as a valid excuse back when this was happening to evil tories a few years ago... but now that its labour the tune changes. So blatant to anyone with a memory longer than a goldfish. These guys are such partisans.
At 4:17, it's very disingenuous to omit the fact that bond yields had already increased by 3.2% in the two years before Truss' budget. The Bank of England's overreaction is what caused bond yields to spike by 0.9% after the Truss budget. Lowering tax would have undoubtedly been better for our economy than whatever we have been doing over the last five years to end up where we are now. The truth is, Truss was actually trying to help the economy and it didn't align with what globalist donors wanted, so they manufactured an artificial reaction to justify ousting her.
Because high interest rates and quantitative tightening are the only things controlling inflation. If BoE stopped you'd be using bank notes as toilet paper soon.
investors HATE when a government puts pretty much any regulation on otherwise independent banks. Since this whole thing is allegedly "spooking investors," if she suddenly made a demand to the BoE, then that would likely "spook" investors even more.
@@cow_tools_ the financial markets are sending Reeves a message (gilt yields on 10yr and 30yr govt bonds rising to levels not seen in 2008 and 1998 respectively) - if she doesn't do anything to show fiscal prudence by March 26 (when the next budget announcement is), the UK economy and the £ will in be severe trouble. It doesn't help when you've got an incompetent central bank governor by the name of Andrew Bailey, who wants to mimick the Fed and ECB's path of monetary policy won't be able to due to poor fiscal policy from Reeves. The financial markets will force Reeves' hand if she doesn't make the hard and only right decision (cut govt spending). The reality is we cannot afford the welfare state we've had for decades - unsurpisingly - this level of public spending, especially when you a) borrow billions of £££ from international capital markets to fund the public sector and b) have barely any positive GDP growth, is completely unsustainable. It will be political suicide for Labour to cut govt spending in very costly areas like the Civil Service, welfare state, and removing triple lock on pension payments but due to their own incompetence and their terrible understanding of economics, we're in this position. Cutting govt spending is the only right decision, even if it means political suicide. Opting for further tax rises, when tax as a %age of GDP is reaching levels not seen in decades, is completely punitive. If Reeves, Starmer and Labour are serious about economic growth, they'll polititcally tough but fiscally responsible decisions - I'm worried this inexperienced Labour government doesn't have the balls to make the hard decisions I've mentioned. State pensions for the future should be at least means tested if they don't scrap it entirely, triple lock needs to go for current pensioners and the efficiency + pricing model of the NHS needs to be looked at (also the NHS has been ~11% less productive despite hiring more people since 2020 - how do you explain this?).
I'm sick to the teeth with the British people picking up the bill for the corruption and greed in the banking industry. We must not bail them out again like in 2008 give the ordinary people any money they lose up to say 200 grand and let the bank's go bust if we bail them out again we must all take to the streets we must not keep protecting the richest of society and greedy bankers and corporate business donors.
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And just for additional context not everyone wanted to leave the EEC. Quite a few of us were against being party to the Maasstrict treaty but the E.U. wouldn't budge on that until it was too late (i.e. post referendum) and thanks to peoples' opposition to the Alternate Vote we got the worst available outcome: Boris Johnson as P.M. during Brexit negotiations and a pretty hard Brexit.
“… another Labour Chancellor might change the rules, another Labour Chancellor might also, of course, tell the Bank of England to cut interest rates. If they did they'd be very wise. It’s absolutely essential to the well-being of this country that that happens. It's absolutely essential to the well-being of this Labour Government that that happens. “And it _can_ happen because, simultaneously, the Government could tell the Bank of England to stop doing quantitative tightening, which is the sale of 100 billion pounds worth of bonds each year, out of the stock of bonds the Bank of England bought during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 Covid crisis, back to the financial markets, with the deliberate intention of crushing growth in the UK economy. You could not make something up quite as absurd as this. When Rachel Reeves is begging for growth, the Bank of England is doing everything it can to destroy it. And a wise Chancellor, unlike the one we have, would tell the Bank of England to stop doing that and, as a consequence, interest rates would fall…” -Richard Murphy, “Where is the UK economy now?” 13 January 2025
The bank cannot be allowed to act like this, basically politically. We need tougher scrutiny. They did this to Truss just because she suggested a different approach.
Also worth adding that if the Fed or ECB sell bonds at a loss, they are NOT made whole by the EU or US because, as mentioned, they can't go bust so don't need to balance the sheet. So the UK is literally throwing away £40b per year, the same amount we spend in total on public order and safety each year and half of what is spent on education. Ideological austerity.
Same, I met Elizabeth stark last year for the first time at a conference in Wilshire, after then my Life has changed for good.God bless Elizabeth stark
Higher borrowing costs don't sound like as big of a problem, as long as the bonds are pound denominated, and it comes out to around the same thing post-inflation.
7:30 "nice" printing money and increasing debt? Of course...if you are leaving with your parents and they allowed you not ot put money on the household spending, not to pay rent or any utility bill and "living la vida loca"...of course...your parent/Central Bank are good and nice. "Nasty" being an adult independent responsible taking care of your finance? Yes. They create this problem with the politicians. We are paying the pay of it.
In efforts to buy votes, politicians are burdening governments with more services than any economy can support. We used up all of our money. We are running out of our grandchildren money. And the masses are barking to raid the stockmarket and real-estate market. When they fail to liquidate those assets at their currently hyperinflation values, ( as is always the with prescription attemots) we are all going to be in serious trouble
Not to mention when there is a crash it'll be the rich that'll come in and do land grabs, buying homes, and gaining even more wealth. It's also bad for our small/medium businesses which will scale back operations, cut staff, and in some cases go bust, or get swallowed up by the big dogs, who will now have greater controls over the markets they operate in. The whole system is actually a scam designed to benefit the few at the expense of the many. I was very sceptical about cryptocurrency, but now having learnt more about how the banking system works and central banks, I would say in a world of cryptocurrency where central banks are no longer needed, the world would be a much better, fairer place.
The main reason they're doing QT is that their gilt holdings distort the market, making long-term loans cheaper than they should be. These kinds of distortions cause malinvestment, which harms the economy in the long run. It's like: if there was a big government subsidy on petrol, then petrol would be cheaper than its actual costs, and people would use more of it than the economy's pricing says that they actually should; there'd be less investment into green energy and public transport, and more into ICE vehicles. With QE, it basically makes waiting seem less painful for investors, so there's less investment in stuff for today (machines, tractors), and more into stuff for the far future (AI, biotech moonshots), even though market pricing of rates is saying that this is a sub-optimal time-preference for the economy. When the US Federal Reserve loses money, they basically just let their bank balance go negative, with the expectation that they'll make it up with future profit. It doesn't affect the US budget. Probably the UK should have the same policy.
QT is unnecessary. As you say it increases interest rates, damping down economic activity and will likely lead to austerity and a recession. The BoE can and should intervene and start buying bonds to reverse their stupidity.
The British economy is collapsing for two reasons. First, there is a globally synchronized deflationary recession in progress and Britian is entangled with the rest of the world’s economies in that collapse. Second, and the most destructive, Britian elected Brexit, which did real permanent damage to its economy, and it will not recover from that for generations - maybe never. The Bank of England’s efforts are completely insignificant compared to those two issues, and honestly nothing they could possibly do, tighten, loosen, raise or lower, would have any real effect at this point.
The Bank of England spied on the UK for the Germans in WWII. The British government actually allowed it as they thought they (the British government) were getting the more useful data. But it was noted that the Bank of England was much more enthusiastic about helping the Germans than helping the British. And that's the opinion of the British government of that period.
The bank of England is older than the EU, it's possibly even older than most EU countries (at least in their current form). This has nothing to do with Brexit
Labours in power 6 months and suddenly Liz Truss was right all along. I can understand frustration at the BoE, but the hypocrisy (on both sides) annoys me.
She wishes it was that simple, but frankly, it isn't. Truss suddenly scared the market with a bunch of unfunded cuts when it was in a vulnerable state, whereas Labour's issue is more an issue of lacking long term confidence... Labour should be able to slowly mend that, but the media is resent to give them any time - They've been saying they ought to be chucked out every day since day 1.
@@effluxi9587 I agree. Truss' economic plans were genuinely a path to certain financial doom. There's no evidence of her idea that tax cuts for the rich give any economic boost, let alone one that covers the losses in tax revenue and borrowing. She was in a league of her own idiocy. Labour are just stuck between a rock and a hard place because the Tories left them with 14 years of austerity, with the additional burden of loads of government debt, and Brexit making trading with our biggest market a nightmare. It will take a long time to fix long term problems, anybody offering a quick fix is a liar who would probably make things worse.
Liz acted extremely recklessly and immediately after a fiscal tinderbox that had been accumulating and smoldering for some time (you can find people warning about it in 2015) exploded. Did it explode because of Liz? Was it a coincidence? Would it have exploded at some point anyway she just set it off slightly early? We will never know. It suited everyone, especially those who assembled the tinderbox, to blame her. She's the worst PM in British history regardless. The only reason there was a spark was that her budget was extremely reckless and pushed without even being reviewed by the cabinet. And that was basically the only thing she did so no good to counter the bad.
@@HALLish-jl5mo Agreed but something needs to be said as to why BoE even let the govt borrow and lent during QE... People found easy to blame on Liz but i think they did try to sabotage her from the beginning .
Why don't you bring up a counter-argument for a change? Instead of spewing random statements, give actual proof. I don't agree with TLDR on a lot of things, but I'm also not stupid enough to claim they're wrong on the internet without a source, especially when they've provided considerably more evidence than you have. People like you are the reason why politics is such a brawl all the time. All talk, no substance. Please, if you _do_ have any idea what _YOU'RE_ talking about, edit your comment and provide some goddamn reasoning for your claims.
My understanding is that the quantitative tightening is to reduce inflation as it involves the destruction of money. All the quantitative easing that has already occurred resulted in massive inflation.
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well yes, they've been jacking up rates since 2022 EDIT: This makes money more expensive, and since 95% of M2 is bank credit, that means they're directly responsible for general price inflation (M2 isn't falling since credit demands go up when public sector spending declines). It's a yoke on the necks of salaried workers.
I don’t think the problem is the central Bank of England trying to show off its independence from the rest of government. Even if the Bank of England cannot go ‘bankrupt’, if they continued to buy bonds at the rate labour wants them to, it will only mean more money going into circulation, which will only make inflation and interest rates stay higher for longer. The other problem is also value of the pound. If more notes were printed because BoE was open to buying more national debt, then that would be disastrous for the value of the sterling; and bear in mind that the UK is an import based nation which buys more in than it exports, the pound must have value internationally for us to buy in what we need.
Why do governments find the money to support other countries but wars but not to the support the NHS or local institutions that are failing. Transport etc
Because Gov't borrow money from mega banks, the mega banks tells them what to do with the money, they obey their WEF orders, and then pay back the money with tax payers money with interest. Remembering they never needed to borrow the money in the first place, the borrowing is about transferring the wealth.
Because supporting other countries isn't just dumping money into a black hole, for example aid to Ukraine achieves the goal of defending Europe/UK from any potential Russian military threat and can be used to recycle older weapon systems that cost more to decommission, whereas any similar funding to the MOD would be far less efficient for the same task.
@human4116they aren’t sending old weapons systems. The UK has sent over half its entire artillery park to Ukraine. The UK military is now unable to function due to critical shortages of literally everything, including men.
Partially true, the crutch to rely upon is NATO here and that's quite a powerful threat to anybody considering an attack. The reason for aid is Europe cannot allow countries like Russia to walk over them, that incentivises other powers to try the same and also protects Ukraine, which is part of an investment countries like the UK have. You also then have the moral standpoint
@ while I see your point the more Ukraine receives the less likely it is the UK will need to use those systems before they can be replaced. The alternative of NOT giving those systems is potentially having to fight Russia with NATO/EU and that will be far more expensive both in money and actual casualties.
The reason for the whole “make room for future quantitative easing” is because the BofE can’t afford to increase the money supply too much and because it probably did it too much in the previous emergency situations, it has to bring the average injections down, giving it headroom for the future.
BTW thanks for doing this follow up, it's too easy at moment for people to just say it's Labour's fault. Sure they aren't doing great but in this case the BoE is working against them.
It's pathetic that this country is still on life support from an economic crisis 17 years ago. When a sentence starts _"Since 2008..."_ I just... _* sigh *_
The concequences of Austerity, I'm afraid.
Edit: I suppose you tossers in the replies would prefer I say "Unchecked Austerity" just because we have it worse than other places.
You get what you vote for I'm afraid.
We had the chance to start to turn things around and stop offering socialism to the rich when we had the A.V. referendum, but apparently people are quite happy having only two choices both of which don't have the country's interests at heart.
@@effluxi9587 hahah what , austerity was a reaction to the economy that was in taters post recession , in hindsight it was not the answer but was a response not a cause
It is pretty amazing. Iceladn taht was in fre fall 2008 turned it around mroe than the UK (The Icelandic currency not even convertible or available at times)...
Most scary is Brexit was eight (8) years after 2008 so it is an ...ongoing fiasco for 17 years.
😂Thats what the term managed decline is for, the government manages more things than ever but everything has declined from healthcare to the economy. Cooked country.
So they sell at a loss, get reimbursed with tax money for the loss and all the bankers still get their bonuses? What a world we live in.
And they obsess over keeping intrest rates higher than inflation, because then more people will save money in their bank accounts, so bankers have more money to work with. The bank of England serves bankers first, the ultra wealthy second, and all of us last. That extra money being saved in bank accounts isn't being spent or invested back in the UK in its entirety, because the banks are buying foreign assets
Now you get it. Central banks are a cartel dealing money.
Their loss is covering for the fiscal space they gave the government and more importantly the economy during crisis.
It does make sense in a way, if they don't do that they may end up having to create inflationary pressure if a new crisis arises, so they are maybe being careful not to get caught in an inflationary loop if something does happen.
@JorgeTorresH this policy is not anti- inflationary at all. They can't reduce the amount of bonds in existence, only sell themto someone else, so when the crisis hits (even though we're already in a crisis but whatever) they will have the same capacity to buy government bonds issued for this purpose, and the same capacity for QE as they would have if they hadn't done QT. This policy ironically raises the burden of debt by increasing interest payments and therefore total spending without getting anything more from it. It's pouring money into the hands of big capital
They are gods wrestling the economy, you're a mere mortal getting in their way. Accept your punishment and apologise for standing in the wrong place.
They did QE for 15 years and gave all the money to rich people. Now the country has to "pay its debt" and guess who gets the bill! 😂
Should be the rich people then..
@@cow_tools_ Lobbying makes that a suicidal decision for any government. You can't lump taxes on those who hold your party up financially.
LOL buying U.K gilts that use for Spending?? I can just imagine you clearly. Perhaps your statement should include don;t print money to give to workers during covid too.
@@allykhan8594 the difference is the amount of money and the distribution, most COVID money didn't go to workers but to the already rich/landlords/businesses etc. if I give you 1k pounds but increase the money supply by 100s of billions you actually have less money.
@@JustAnotherAccount8That's why we need hard limits on party donations.
The whole argument for keeping the central bank independent is based on the belief that it will act professionally and impartially to maintain a healthy UK economy. But what if it doesn’t? Are they actually accountable?
Yes, BoEs board is appointed by the government for fixed terms.
I think you have to recall the period before central bank independence.
It isn't independent. Neither is the Federal Reserve.
Turkey 's government forced its central bank to keep interest rates artificially low during early COVID and that lead to hyperinflation. I don't think it's central bank independence that's the problem.
Central bank shouldn’t exist at all. It’s ridiculous to assume independence or direct control over it would keep it from being impartial or completely corrupt. Something that powerful will never be free the hands of those in power who would want use and abuse it for their own gain.
Did the same to Truss, I don't like Truss or Starmer but the way the Bank of England can just decide on a whim to crash the economy and make all our lives even more miserable doesn't sit right with me 😐
Truss did do it to herself as well though. Surprising the markets in the way that she did was not very clever.
I would argue Liz Truss’s economic problems were a lot more self-inflicted - people may not like Rachel Reeves’ budget but it was actually very tame with very little change contrast this with Liz Truss who attempted to make very large reforms (such as completely cutting the top rate of tax) all in one go which surprised the markets
The ongoing problems with Labour are more due to a long term view that things will not get better rather an immediate panic which happened under Liz Truss
Gary Stevenson explained this very well Id recommend
You do realise Starmer / Rachel Reeves can literally order the BoE to stop selling bonds
It's within their remit
@@franzusgutlus54 I absolutely agree I may not like BofE policy but I’d much it maintains it’s independence rather than be dictated by government policy which may not always be in my best interest
@@ukmaxiTruss may have been weak, but she was undoubtedly couped out of office by the BoE and her own party.
Everyone loves showing a picture of the Royal Exchange when talking about the Bank of England.
They are right next door!
I love it actually
Sure, that's the problem with a nation debt trap... "ooh the pretty picture is wrong..."
You living standards and freedom is being stolen and all you care about is pictures... no wonder fascism is thriving.
The Bank of England (BoE) is currently implementing policies aimed at stabilizing the UK economy amid various challenges, including high inflation and labor market shifts. While some analysts express concerns about these measures potentially leading to economic downturns, the BoE's actions are intended to balance growth and stability.
Bank failures are likely to continue increasing due to rising interest rates, as it causes their commercial paper and treasuries to become devalued. To prevent a severe economic downturn, it is necessary to implement a freeze on interest rates. Simultaneously, the govt should support the industry in boosting gas and oil production to lower fuel prices. The anti-oil stance only contributes to higher energy costs, leading to inflation throughout the economy. By reducing interest rates, tightening the money supply, cutting government expenditures, and increasing the availability of affordable fuel, inflation will decrease, and the economy will thrive. Unfortunately, various conflicting agendas make it unlikely for all these measures to be implemented, resulting in a recession and persistent inflation.
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Selling bonds at a loss - a way to send truckloads of money to the rich.
Yeh absolutely. I wonder who is leaning on the BOE to make this happen...
Banks. The BOE mainly buys bonds from the banks.
Goldman Sachs said the don't u.k gilts crap. As it's crap. is that a reflection of U.K economy? Stop trying to get rich on welfare.
Or the poor. Literally anyone can bonds or shares
@@TrouserSn4ck yes, the poor have plenty of cash to buy bonds /s
Our Central Bank being independent is the only reason the Chilean Peso has not cratered even more during my lifetime, so, I think I have a bias here
The bacen of Brazil too, the independence of such institutions is paramount for limited inflation, at least it has been here in LATAM
Ni siquiera ahora con Milei tenemos un BCRA independiente, cuiden lo que tienen
Who would have thought centalizing your entire economy in finances in one city rather than manufacturing in many cities would go so wrong?
Best comment here!
The Krauts went all in on manufacturing and they're doing sooo well. The UK is still a top 10 world manufacturer anyway.
Literally. And refusing to spend public money on value generating assets but happily bailing out privately owned companies who risked it all
Well as an ex-grunt job worker all I can say now is: If you want to go work in the grit, dust, and smog then be my guest.
My great grandad died in a mine collapse. My steel-working grandad nearly died in a steel mill, my Dad nearly died twice after falling the height of two houses. All of us had several injuries on the go constantly from working the jobs. And my Dad's generation and mine were shafted out of decent wages and savings at every turn.
You want manufacturing and grunt jobs back? Go for it! I'll die in the streets out in what remains of fresh air and with sun on my face before I go back to being a wage-slave.
This nation just throws people to the grinder either way. So if my choice is which way do I want to suffer for nothing then I'll choose my own poisons rather than be forced to swallow an industrial one.
Besides robots will be doing 95% of manufacturing roles by the time 2050 rolls around.
No more poverty and soft or hard slavery for the poor!
Better to die free and by your own choosing than to work 60 hours a week on nights in a factory hellhole industrial estate.
Blade Runner chose the Middlesbrough skyline as inspiration for it's dystopian mood setting.
And you want more of that? As a Northerner who has seen where steel pride led to the destruction of the planet, all I can say is I won't participate further in the manufacturing of Hell on earth!
Agreed, selling every industry to outside the UK, privatizing everything, selling our gold. I would laugh if it didn't depress me so much
If the government can't use the Bank of England, what if instead they create a shell corporation that says they'll sail to the Caribbean to trade goods, but instead just buys up government debt and exchanges it for stock in the company?
Appoint the ghost of Robert Walpole Chancellor
Niche southern sea company reference
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It's not normal for interest rates to be as low as they were for so long. This made it crap for savers and allowed people with wealth to borrow cheaply and buy up more goods. There was literally no point opening a savings account when you're getting less then 1% annual return.
That sponsor transition was about as smooth as a car with no suspension on a dirt road 😂
With all the brilliant economic brains in the Bank of England and the Exchequer Civil Servants, one would have thought that someone could have come up with something a little more sophisticated than the blunt one-size-fits-all policy of interest rate control. All that does is fuel price rises by manufacturers to meet their increased cost of funding and punish the poorer in society whereby mortgages and rents go up which constitute a large proportion of their income.
You need to get your pay and living conditions in line with China if you want to compete.
It's almost as if noone knows what's going on
They are doing what they are expected to do (by those who put them there): provide conditions for the rich to become richer on the expense of the rest of the population.
Okay, so come up with a better strategy to try and fix post-Covid inflation then without the raising interest rates, that's literally what all G7 countries did from the US, Canada, EU, Australia, it's the most effective tool against inflation that central banks has. Do you want Turkey level of inflations? Because that's what Erdogan did, he interfered with the central bank and forced them to keep interest rates low instead of raising it, that decision made the Lira value plummet and Turkey reached 60% inflation in March of 22'.
There was one monetary policy option the UK could have used during the pandemic when inflation was badly needed. Instead of quantitative easing Bank of England could have just forgiven the government the bonds they held on their books (so completely canceled) instead of issuing more bonds. However this approach may have meant higher interest rates needed post-pandemic.
Obviously now that would make no sense because they are using the quantitative tightening (in conjunction with higher interest rates) to quell inflation.
It turns out politicians and the public like borrowing money at low interest rates, they just don't like having to pay it back later.
Of course this is the actual explanation of why global inflation has been the absolute norm since the 1970s. Everybody loves inflation when they're selling but hates it when buying. Blame Democracy and the State. Anyone else blaming other factors don't understand basic economics
There is absolutely no need to sell these bonds at a loss. They could keep them to maturity and the government could pay them off at face value. The BOE does not need the money. Its madness.
Except your assumption that BOE "does not need money" is obviously wrong, BOEs job isn't to raise or not raise money, it's about adjusting money supply. In time of uncertainty, they do QE, in times of inflation they tighten. Obviously holding bonds to maturity is a form of weak tightening. But its really misses the point of what BOE are doing completely. They are controlling the balance sheet, I don't think you get that, obviously waiting to a bonds maturity is going to be much a weak weaker form of reducing the balance sheet than actively selling. So, yea, I honestly think you missed the point of QT entirely.
@ I do get it. They are reducing liquidity, in the mistaken belief that excess demand is causing inflation. But it’s not. The economy is flat lining, there is spare capacity and a lack of demand. So QT is going to put the economy into recession and kill gdp growth. The opposite of what the government is trying to achieve.
@@AB-zv6dz No, the job of the BofE is to provide the government with the money it requires to function, and it's the government's job to control the supply of money in the economy via taxation. The BofE is an unelected body and should not be in control of the economy which it is at present under such a weak chancellor.
@@AB-zv6dzQT has the effect of reducing demand in the economy through a reduction in liquidity. Which will only reduce inflation if the source of the inflation is an overheating economy which clearly it is not. This will have the affect of causing a recession through a decrease in growth. QT is the last thing the economy needs right now.
@@garysmith5025 LOL gary smith that is an awful take. You need to get off the youtube comments, yikes. The BOEs job is not to "provide the government with money", the BOE controls monetary policy. Government raises money through taxation and borrowing. BOE may buy from the government, but thats it. The governments job is NOT to control the supply of money via taxation. Monetary policy controls the supply of money (hint, its in the name so its extra simple for you gary). Taxation is FISCAL policy. Taxation does not control the supply of money. Obviously. The supply of money is indirectly impacted via fiscal policy but the BOEs job is squarely to manage the money supply. So no Gary, you clearly have no idea how things work. BOE controls monetary policy, govt control fiscal policy and the bank does not fund the government but it can buy gilts in order to control the money supply.
Isn't the real issue that the Bank did so much QE, that we are now paying the price in it's unwinding?
Yes, in retrospect Band of England injected too much liquidity into the economy. However no one complains when their mortgage rates decrease* or they have to pay less tax temporarily.
*Except for savers of course. In some ways our economy has been very cruel to savers for decades and severely disincentivised saving.
It's easy to blame people like the BOE and starmer, conservatives and so on, people don't find it so easy when they have to pay more taxes or gas prices.
Things have been so incredibly cheap for so long, electric simply didn't just double, it was frozen for too long and now we are paying in reality what we should.
People are selfish, don't want to pay more in tax but will happily take benefits of paying tax, and they'd rather make the economy worse than pay more tax, with or without full knowledge.
@@thomas316 yes completely agree
@@fewik8567 Partly true but part of what's driving inflation is that productivity growth has stalled. As our population ages and retires there are fewer workers to produce the goods and services society wants and needs. That means the workers need to be more productive just for the economy to stand still. That should be possible with better technology, machines, more efficient processes etc. but it's not really happening in the UK. Consequently inflation is increasing because demand is growing faster than supply.
You are mainly paying the price for the proxy and trade w-@-r against Russia.
Missed a lot in this video. Quantitative tightening is seen as another mechanism to reduce liquidity in the economy and dampen inflation. Also, QE has been blamed for large asset appreciation, so surprised everyone is pushing back against QT.
If the BoE reduced interest rates, provide QE and inflation rose, then the currency would crash or debt would become even more expensive.
Well actually, debt decreases from higher inflation.
@@Zenkrypt Sure, but if other countries aren't experiencing a similar inflation, will greatly impact the currency. Will also increase borrowing costs which will require more debt.
@@WTFinancepodcast i agree and why is our inflation higher?
Brexit
Right but I don't think the case has been made for the depth or the timing of this tightening. Furthermore given the irregularity of the size of borrowing for Covid I would have thought some alignment of monetary and fiscal policy would be in order in settling that bill. Instead we have another fairly myopic looking decision from the BoE.
@@Zenkryptbut then cost of borrowing would go up due to many lender not willing to lose value. Their would be a panic to sell bonds
The UK is economy is collapsing, we are in financial ruin and there are rising taxes due to a combination of 4 reasons:
1. Recession in 2008/2009 - Leading to government borrowing, bank bailouts and austerity measures . Due to austerity measures, there has been a lack investment in the NHS and public services since 2008/09. This lack of investment has now caught up with us as its effect has been more noticeable in recent years. Back in 2007, the UK was one of the worlds strongest economists predicted our GDP would grow 3% per year. Also in 2007, £1 was worth around $2. From around 1997 until 2009, the UK economy was stronger than any other G7 country. It took the UK until around 2020 for the UK economy to go back to 2007 levels. To give you an indication of how bad this recession was, the UK government debt as a percentage of GDP before the recession was 41%. In 2012 this jumped to 83% and right now is greater than 98% !
2. Brexit - Resentment from the recession played a part in false stories told by ministers to gain voter support. Economists and analysts at Cambridge Econometrics found that, by 2035, the UK is anticipated to have three million fewer jobs, 32% lower investment, 5% lower exports and 16% lower imports, than it would have had been. The report states that the UK will be £311bn worse off by 2035 due to leaving EU. The government borrowed more money to pay the divorce bill triggering markets to believe if we could ever pay this back, so the value of the pound dropped, inflation increased. Up until Brexit in 2020 the UK had year-on-year GDP growth. However, the GDP growth from 2008/09 to 2020 is a false picture as the growth in these years was due to austerity measures. Brexit made our situation much, much worser. Our politicians lied to the public e.g. Boris Bus, blaming migrants, we will be better off after Brexit and our economy will recover due to UK trade-deals etc. The economic risk due to Brexit was huge and then Covid happened.
3. Covid - The government borrowed more money again as we had to bail out the whole economy. There was massive drop in GDP again and it crashed, all business were shutting down. The UK is the only G7 country to never economically recover after covid. Yes, we had coronavirus vaccination costs, support schemes, grant and loans but all European countries did similar (apart from furloughing the nation cost) and the whole world was in the same boat. Let’s not forget the PPE scandal, bounce back loan fraud, eat-out-to-help-out and ministers holding shares in vaccination firms.
4. Political mismanagement in all of the above - constant leadership changes, rising crime rates. UK government borrowing is out control leading to higher inflation and rising taxes. Russia/Ukraine conflict, I’m excluding from the 4 reasons as all European countries are in the same boat, other European countries are more impacted as they rely greater than UK on Russian gas and trade. High streets in some areas are like a ghost town, Debenhams etc has gone. National wages have stagnated across the country. Home ownership is a right only reserved for the rich. Less and less deposable income for the average Brit. The government appears to be nothing to prevent the average Brit from becoming poorer.
I can write even more but getting angry whilst typing. The UK is in a complete and utter mess. We are in cost of living crisis. The government doesn’t have enough money and neither does the public. It will take one or two generations not years to fix it.
There is a cost of quantity easing, and it is inflation. Because the quantity easing it self is basically the fancy way of describing and implementing the money printing.
I like it, over time the debt becomes worthless........And more and more people come to the UK and push up property prices, it's great.
It will only cause inflation if too much of the extra money is left in the economy, combine QE with increased progressive taxation and you avoid inflation.
@ "It will only cause inflation if too much of the extra money is left in the economy".You nut job, it's not Schrödinger's box.
@@ohk749 Kindly GFY.
@@ohk749I suppose you own a big property or two then?
We can't print and spend forever with no consequences
Basically we don't know what the hell the BoE is trying to do right now
We do know, quantitative tightening is supposed to help reduce inflation and stabilize the pound. TLDR is just saying they're doing for "independence" but they're not, there's a reason for everything they do, it's not some random decision. Although the choice to sell the debt instead of letting it mature is definitely controversial for economists, the Federal reserve and ECB just let their debt mature.
We know who owns the BOE and it's not the UK.
It's the bankers, who'd rather the free for all under the Tories.
protect the £GBP.
just literally watch the video and then you can delete your comment
We do. They are performing a ridiculous dance called Quantitative Tightening that serves no purpose in the current economic situation. Why? To hide the fact that they lent the UK government money. The whole thing is a farce. The other thing they are doing is keeping interests rates artificially high because they have a long stated of goal of keeping interest rates above the level of inflation so that lenders and saver make more money leaving their cash in banks. The whole situation is ridiculous and is a good part of the reason why the UK is in the economic state it is in.
Bailey always was a fool. Listen to some of his nonsense after Brexit !!!
His predecessor (Mark Carney) was brilliant, and now in the run to be Canadas next PM.
he is not “in the running” the Liberals sit at 16% in the polls and it is virtually impossible for them to win the next election.
Bailey has always been incompetent. How he got the job after the shambles of the FCA is unbelievable. Although Mark Carney wasn't much better either imo.
Carney left rates at near zero for 10 years, helping create the massive the bubble were now in. Almost everyone agrees it was one of stupidest decisions ever taken by the central banks, but used to transfer wealth to the super rich.
Their wealth has exploded since 2010.
Never in history were rates left so low, for so long. Money was practically free.
The people must now pay it back.
Carney is a technocrat nothing will change in Canada.
Nobody sane would want to be Canada’s next prime minister😂was that supposed to instil confidence in him or something?
When QT has such a massive impact on the interest rate there is already a massive problem with the QE period. More specifically there wasn't the demand for the huge amount of yields in the first place. You could argue that this was because of the crisis but on the other hand the money should seek risk free assets in a crisis. To get money back into state bonds they have to be more valuable than real estate or the stock market. But all the money from QE artificially inflatet these markets. So the budget has to compete with a QE market in QT period.
Tories in charge: Let's print money to help out politicians.
Labour in charge: we suddenly need to be fiscally responsible.
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Because gilt rates and redemption value are fixed and the bank of England is selling those assets at a loss, the loss is directly related to the difference in the coupon and the current interest rate. That is all money the govt has to find. Rachel Reeves can instruct the BoE to stop selling these bonds despite their "independence" and hasn't, why not? Do labour really want Austerity 2.0?
Labour hasn't reversed austerity. Does Labour want to continue it's continuation of austerity.
I expect she is damned if she tells them to stop, and damned if she doesn't. At least at the moment she can claim there is no intervention ongoing, this is just the market adjusting to reality.
@@0w784goperating a budget deficit of 5.1% isn't austerity.
@@istherenofreenameI would still instruct the bank and at least that puts the blame on them if they don't
Austerity is a myth. All it means is that the rate of increase in spending is lower. In real terms funding has continued to increase for decades, but not as fast as it used to.
Debt is always made out to be one of the worst things you can get into and there are so many videos and adverts to help reduce or get out of debt. Yet most governments seem to not care about getting out of debt but getting more into debt is the solution to all the problems. No doubt someone is making money somewhere.
Debt is seen as bad for the average person to be in because the average person generally isn't investing the money they indebted.
A business or government is a ~good~ thing, since it should mean that the business or government is maximising investment now to make higher returns later.
For example, I want to build a bridge to allow trade to take place at a higher rate. To get my money back for the bridge I place a toll on either side. If I wait until I have the money, I will miss out on the toll fees for the time that I was saving.
Whereas if I take debt at a lower interest than the toll fees generate in that time, then I am overall better off having taken the debt.
I also know the prices of material, labor etc with more certainty now than I do in the future.
The amount of debt and confidence in repayments is the concern here, not the fact that there is a debt at all.
People and nations buy debt. China and others have been selling off US debt bonds for most of last year. Unfortunately Britain is not doing so and could end up in a bigger mess than it is.
@@IfISpeakBigTrouble assumes competence in decision making and that the reason for government borrowing is infact a net good or has output greater than the cost of borrowing and also does not account for the fact that much of borrowing involves printing money and hence devaluing the money of the governments primary stackholder (i.e., the people).
A prime example of this recently is increasing costs of valuable producers (farmers) via unnecessary inheritance tax whilst simultaneously giving away the same amount of tax expected to be raised to foreigner farmers abroad. Supposedly according to labour these new taxes on farmers are to help balance the books but there will be many secondary effects that will negate any good of balancing the books whilst simultaneously sounding ridiculous by begging the question why the books need balancing in such a way whilst we overspend on nonsense such as giving money to foreign farmers abroad.
We could avoid borrowing if we prioritised spending or the borrowing we did do could be better targetted directly into actual investments that provide returns to british people if the borrow was not because of government overreach and spend but after a sensible fiscal programme that didnt involve literally taxing brits to pay foriegn farmers.
Mainly because debt isn't a bad thing. Debt just means you own someone some money. For example, if you every hire a service and you pay for it on completion, you are in debt at the moment they have finished. Most likely only for like an couple of hours, but it's still technically debt. Scale that up to a country or big corpo, where services/projects can take years as can the bureaucracy of moving money, and that's why they are always in debt. It's by design and definition. Add in inflation reducing the real cost of standing debts it actually makes it cheaper for them to be in debt. Up to a point. There is always a line when the debt is to much, but where that line is can vary and change.
The idea that all debt is bad only comes from financial illiteracy. Knowing the difference between good debt and bad debt is very important in people's financial education. Borrowing money to buy liabilities (things that lose money like a car) is bad debt. Where as borrowing money to invest into assets (things that go up in value or make money such as homes, businesses or even investing in education to learn a skill to make more money in the future) is good debt. Government's do the same as well where they'll borrow money to invest into the economy to fuel growth (leading to higher tax receipts) is something government all over the world have been doing for centuries. They invest in the things like infrastructure ie transport links that makes it easier to do business and therefore boosting the economy. It is why governments are generally not that bothered about trying to pay off their debt if the economy carries on growing cos it means they can still service their debt. It why governments are obsessed with growing the economy. Starmer is betting big on AI hoping the investment will lead to lots of business opportunities and better productivity
This is a terrible video. Please take an economist consultant to check your scripts. Quantitative tightening is a tool to control inflation, just like quantitative easing helped create inflation with economic stimulus. It also mitigates the devaluation of the pound. The BoE is not just "trying to prove its independence" which is a ridiculous statement. Blaming the government financial problems on the central bank is the oldest trick of governments with no fiscal control, a lore repeated continuously by Turkey, Brazil, Argentina, and so on.
How does quantitative tightening decrease inflation (assuming you mean decrease when you say the vague "control")?
@mnm1273 it lowers the amount of money in the money supply, which would therefore decrease inflation. We did a lot of QE during COVID, and now it's come back to bite us.
I agree to an extent. QT is all about reducing inflation. Is that the priority right now? That's questionable, it's pushing up interest rates, which is bad for growth. However it's certainly the BOE's priority, as its the only thing they are judged on (they think), as their single target is of course to keep inflation below 2%. When all you have is a hammer, everything start to look like a nail.
@mnm1273 So the BofE sells the bonds, investors use their income to buy bonds instead of spending on goods/services, thus reducing inflation. That's how I think it would work.
@mnm1273he said create inflation right after
We own the Bank of England. Their "independence" is limited and can be overridden in law. The combination of quantitative tightening and high interest rates is making our theoretical debt (where the left pocket borrows from the right and we become in debt to ourselves) considerably higher through higher interest rates. The bank is not working for the country; we are all working to fuel financial greed. Who will end up paying for casino banking? You probably guessed it...
I also prefer turkeys system where the gov can just print money if it wants. What could go wrong? Deffo not election stimulus or anything.
We don't own the BOE, the richest family in the world own all the central banks.
We shud just print like Venezuela innit! Usury is madness but the poor love it when they become rich and hate it when they are poor. The rich love it as they are mostly atheist, need to have fun before cashing out.
print more money so my little kids can have a warm home? What about children eating gadoogadoo in Indonesia? Print them some as well. Print more, my parents live alone, INDEPENDENT and need more money for food and heating. Print more more money the Hospitals are failing. Some can't even get sex changes, print them some too, and asylum seekers need better hotels.
print baby print
"Turmoil" in the bond markets does not mean the UK economy is crashing or collapsing. It just means bond yields are higher than expected and borrowing cost is higher. But the demand for borrowing still remains, and businesses are still investing.
“Independent” is just code for “Unaccountable”.
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Good video. Raises a very important question about what our very non-democratic central bank's priorities are.
I'm confused. You release videos about the "pound collapsing" and "a market meltdown", but the currency charts show otherwise. Sure, the UK pound has become cheaper against the USD and Euro recently, but the decline isn't THAT severe. From January to June 2004, the GBP/EUR ranged from 1.1524 to 1.1800, reaching a high of around the 1.2150 mark by the end of the year. Currently, it's at 1.1880, similar to its peak in early 2024 and still well above 1.1524. This doesn't seem like a collapse to me. So, why the dramatic headlines?
Because GBP value usually goes up when 1) interest rates go up and 2) when you can earn more from guilts. Labour have managed to engineer a scenario where GBP falls in value while these are happening.
Pound goes down it's easier to sell goods, pound goes up it's harder. Swings and roundabouts for gamblers.
@@Ghengiskhansmum so bad if the nation is a net importer like the uk, good for net exporters like china.
As a lay person, I usually equate finances with driving a high powered car. If you accelerate from very slow to very fast, and vice-versa, you get a nice smooth transition, but if you keep stamping hard on the throttle and then the brake, things are pretty rough. Surely if these fiscal transitions were more gradual markets would have more time to make gradual adjustments. Speed of change seems to be the modern curse with almost everything these days. No wonder people find it hard to adjust; the pace of life seems no longer on a human scale!
Replace the mandate of stability and 2% with reduce the wealth inequality gap.
No, net zero trade deficit
@ how does that help level the massive wealth inequality gap?
....And you will have an argentinian/venezuelan inflation.
@ why if they are charged with closing the wealth gap?
Sooo, hyperinflation? Everyone is equally poor.
The fact I got an advert for "Islamic property insurance" on this video (I'm British) tells you how utterly decrepit our governments have been to us while still failing economically
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Note that the BOE is the building to the left. The one in the centre, which was sometimes shown on its own, is seperate.
New intro music? Interesting.
You should have Gary economics explain things.
Gary Economics just another marxist moron sadly 😂
That dude is so damn boring. TLDR delivery all the way.
Lol Gary the multimillionaire posing as a man of the people in front of his carefully contrived kitchen scene, complete with bottle of fairy liquid and £20 kettle, asking people to donate to his patreon 😂
Interesting video. Yet, any government from any political ideology would struggle with the highest nominal UK sovereign debt ever alongside bond yields inevitably rising from the lowest ever since the inception of central banking - bloody difficult task for anyone ?
If you watch the video it shows the UK and US yields to be virtually locked together and yet nobody says these things about the US.
@@SmileyEmoji42@SmileyEmoji42 Especially if the UK is the largest buyer of an American debt crisis vis-a-vis Bermuda and the Cayman Islands!🎉😂
Basically the tories spent all of the money when the BOE had debt to gdp of 66%, now it’s 99.5% they can’t anymore, tories wasted all the room
“The boe say they’re creating more space for quantities easing in the future, aka, when the tories are back in, it’s a political play”
Spent on what? Furlough ? Lockdown ? Benefits ? There were no tax cuts for the rich. There weren’t any tax cuts at all… the reason why money is spent is there is literally no growth. We have a tremendously expensive energy policy, expensive health and infrastructure policy that literally doesn’t work…. But politicans keep the boat going by just throwing cheap money at it. Rachel from accounts is finding out that when a country has zero growth it cannot tax it’s way to growth. Without growth no more taxes. But inflation increases public pay costs (without increases in taxes) so basically what’s happening is because the economy isn’t growing, everything is more expensive and we don’t have more money to pay.
And yet all the time the Tories were in power, Labour supporters kept demanding that they spend more money. You can't please a Labour supporter
You mean the party that wanted an either harsher lockdown for longer is complaining the money was spent on furlough?
“When the private markets doesn’t work” aka when nobody wants to buy the UK’s terrible bonds at the interest the UK are offering them at…
The BoE's argument that it needs to keep interest rates above the inflation rate might possibly make sense, if the rates were close. They are not. There's loads of headroom there, more than almost any time in recent history. They are solving a problem that doesn't exist and in the process transferring money out of the economy and into the pockets of bankers. Who'd have thought a bank would do something like that? 🙄
"GIVE me control of a nation's money supply, and I care not who makes its laws.” Mayer Amschel Rothschild
guess who still owns it.
Casual antisemitism. He didn't say that, and the insinuation that Jews control the banks is disgraceful
He never said this. This is a misattributed quote.
Same was said about the food, think you've been fooled.The BIS run the central banks, good luck for the future. @hhaa3728
@@hhaa3728 Do you know who did? It's a very smart quote whoever said it.
The BofE used to target monetary stability. In the GFC this got reinterpreted as financial stability. Suddenly, making sure the balance sheets of key companies were in the black took priority over the 2% inflation goal.
Yes it is. Also great video by you guys thank you.
Also the Bank of England Act 1998 provides the option for the Chancellor to tell the bank what to do if its an "economic necessity. Its actually there in the legislation so Reeves can to a certain extent do what she wants if its urgent which explains the QE after 2008 and during the pandemic. However both times we had Tory Government on power so they didn't take the opportunity that the low interest rates and loads of central bank bonds gave them.
Labour were in power in 2008...
@bongsound yes and then they lost power 2 years later. BoE did QE for like over 15 years. And Tories were in power for 13 of those 15 years.
06:00 "This can be good for governments because markets will generally offer you lower borrowing rates"
After you've already correctly identified multiple times that the central bank can't go bankrupt - so why care about borrowing from markets.
TLDR completely dismissed Liz Truss blaming the bank as a valid excuse back when this was happening to evil tories a few years ago... but now that its labour the tune changes. So blatant to anyone with a memory longer than a goldfish. These guys are such partisans.
I'm glad its not just me that see's how "impartial" they are.
At 4:17, it's very disingenuous to omit the fact that bond yields had already increased by 3.2% in the two years before Truss' budget. The Bank of England's overreaction is what caused bond yields to spike by 0.9% after the Truss budget. Lowering tax would have undoubtedly been better for our economy than whatever we have been doing over the last five years to end up where we are now. The truth is, Truss was actually trying to help the economy and it didn't align with what globalist donors wanted, so they manufactured an artificial reaction to justify ousting her.
Rachel Reeves has the statutory power to make the BoE stop doing this… does she not know this or does she simply not have the courage to do so?
Because high interest rates and quantitative tightening are the only things controlling inflation. If BoE stopped you'd be using bank notes as toilet paper soon.
investors HATE when a government puts pretty much any regulation on otherwise independent banks. Since this whole thing is allegedly "spooking investors," if she suddenly made a demand to the BoE, then that would likely "spook" investors even more.
@@luigiwoo4469let the investors be spooked. They are half the problem.
End the BOE
Please BRING MARK CARNEY BACK!!!! Bailey clearly isn’t up to the job.
God no. Bring back Merv.
He was utterly shite.
Of all the G7 countries, for some reason the UK feels like it is always living from pound to pound
Bank of England needs more regulations as they are putting the UK economy on a chokehold
Yup yup. Labour government is not terrible with their fiscal handling at all. Sounds about right.
The bank is protecting the Value of the £GBP, as Govs borrow more it devalues the £GBP. Also the Bank tightens suppy of money to control inflation.
Then why is the GBP losing value now?
The bank of England is selling bonds at a loss and that loss is covered by the taxpayer.🤦🤦🤦 We need a revolution civil wars are caused like this
Monetary policy doesn’t exist to correct bad fiscal policy btw.
Who decides what's bad fiscal policy? That's political.
@@cow_tools_ the financial markets are sending Reeves a message (gilt yields on 10yr and 30yr govt bonds rising to levels not seen in 2008 and 1998 respectively) - if she doesn't do anything to show fiscal prudence by March 26 (when the next budget announcement is), the UK economy and the £ will in be severe trouble. It doesn't help when you've got an incompetent central bank governor by the name of Andrew Bailey, who wants to mimick the Fed and ECB's path of monetary policy won't be able to due to poor fiscal policy from Reeves.
The financial markets will force Reeves' hand if she doesn't make the hard and only right decision (cut govt spending).
The reality is we cannot afford the welfare state we've had for decades - unsurpisingly - this level of public spending, especially when you a) borrow billions of £££ from international capital markets to fund the public sector and b) have barely any positive GDP growth, is completely unsustainable. It will be political suicide for Labour to cut govt spending in very costly areas like the Civil Service, welfare state, and removing triple lock on pension payments but due to their own incompetence and their terrible understanding of economics, we're in this position. Cutting govt spending is the only right decision, even if it means political suicide. Opting for further tax rises, when tax as a %age of GDP is reaching levels not seen in decades, is completely punitive.
If Reeves, Starmer and Labour are serious about economic growth, they'll polititcally tough but fiscally responsible decisions - I'm worried this inexperienced Labour government doesn't have the balls to make the hard decisions I've mentioned. State pensions for the future should be at least means tested if they don't scrap it entirely, triple lock needs to go for current pensioners and the efficiency + pricing model of the NHS needs to be looked at (also the NHS has been ~11% less productive despite hiring more people since 2020 - how do you explain this?).
How can the bank of England an independent institution,when the governor of the bank of England is chosen by the chancellor of the exchequer ?
I'm sick to the teeth with the British people picking up the bill for the corruption and greed in the banking industry.
We must not bail them out again like in 2008 give the ordinary people any money they lose up to say 200 grand and let the bank's go bust if we bail them out again we must all take to the streets we must not keep protecting the richest of society and greedy bankers and corporate business donors.
Great vid. Wish these were longer at times.
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For context, £45 billion is what Brexit cost each year ( in losses).
The NHS got an extra £350m a week now though!
Source?
@@geraldh.8047 suuuuure... still waiting to see it...
And just for additional context not everyone wanted to leave the EEC. Quite a few of us were against being party to the Maasstrict treaty but the E.U. wouldn't budge on that until it was too late (i.e. post referendum) and thanks to peoples' opposition to the Alternate Vote we got the worst available outcome: Boris Johnson as P.M. during Brexit negotiations and a pretty hard Brexit.
@@gillesmarchal5251I believe that was (hopefully) supposed to be capped with an /s.
“… another Labour Chancellor might change the rules, another Labour Chancellor might also, of course, tell the Bank of England to cut interest rates. If they did they'd be very wise. It’s absolutely essential to the well-being of this country that that happens. It's absolutely essential to the well-being of this Labour Government that that happens.
“And it _can_ happen because, simultaneously, the Government could tell the Bank of England to stop doing quantitative tightening, which is the sale of 100 billion pounds worth of bonds each year, out of the stock of bonds the Bank of England bought during the 2008 financial crisis and the 2020 Covid crisis, back to the financial markets, with the deliberate intention of crushing growth in the UK economy. You could not make something up quite as absurd as this. When Rachel Reeves is begging for growth, the Bank of England is doing everything it can to destroy it. And a wise Chancellor, unlike the one we have, would tell the Bank of England to stop doing that and, as a consequence, interest rates would fall…”
-Richard Murphy, “Where is the UK economy now?” 13 January 2025
The bank cannot be allowed to act like this, basically politically. We need tougher scrutiny. They did this to Truss just because she suggested a different approach.
Also worth adding that if the Fed or ECB sell bonds at a loss, they are NOT made whole by the EU or US because, as mentioned, they can't go bust so don't need to balance the sheet.
So the UK is literally throwing away £40b per year, the same amount we spend in total on public order and safety each year and half of what is spent on education. Ideological austerity.
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Higher borrowing costs don't sound like as big of a problem, as long as the bonds are pound denominated, and it comes out to around the same thing post-inflation.
Another example of Blair's short term policies ruining a country which has worked well for centuries.
The filling up there pension pots and bounes that's what bank's do best greed.
7:30 "nice" printing money and increasing debt? Of course...if you are leaving with your parents and they allowed you not ot put money on the household spending, not to pay rent or any utility bill and "living la vida loca"...of course...your parent/Central Bank are good and nice.
"Nasty" being an adult independent responsible taking care of your finance?
Yes. They create this problem with the politicians. We are paying the pay of it.
So central banks are supposed to help with stability? Then why are we destabilising?
Sounds like the central bank needs a change.
In efforts to buy votes, politicians are burdening governments with more services than any economy can support. We used up all of our money. We are running out of our grandchildren money. And the masses are barking to raid the stockmarket and real-estate market. When they fail to liquidate those assets at their currently hyperinflation values, ( as is always the with prescription attemots) we are all going to be in serious trouble
Not to mention when there is a crash it'll be the rich that'll come in and do land grabs, buying homes, and gaining even more wealth. It's also bad for our small/medium businesses which will scale back operations, cut staff, and in some cases go bust, or get swallowed up by the big dogs, who will now have greater controls over the markets they operate in. The whole system is actually a scam designed to benefit the few at the expense of the many.
I was very sceptical about cryptocurrency, but now having learnt more about how the banking system works and central banks, I would say in a world of cryptocurrency where central banks are no longer needed, the world would be a much better, fairer place.
The main reason they're doing QT is that their gilt holdings distort the market, making long-term loans cheaper than they should be. These kinds of distortions cause malinvestment, which harms the economy in the long run. It's like: if there was a big government subsidy on petrol, then petrol would be cheaper than its actual costs, and people would use more of it than the economy's pricing says that they actually should; there'd be less investment into green energy and public transport, and more into ICE vehicles. With QE, it basically makes waiting seem less painful for investors, so there's less investment in stuff for today (machines, tractors), and more into stuff for the far future (AI, biotech moonshots), even though market pricing of rates is saying that this is a sub-optimal time-preference for the economy.
When the US Federal Reserve loses money, they basically just let their bank balance go negative, with the expectation that they'll make it up with future profit. It doesn't affect the US budget. Probably the UK should have the same policy.
Yes
The BoE has effectively been privatised without even being sold off.
Paying the losses of the bank of England make sanse in a gold based economy but no sense at all in fiat currency.
QT is unnecessary. As you say it increases interest rates, damping down economic activity and will likely lead to austerity and a recession. The BoE can and should intervene and start buying bonds to reverse their stupidity.
The British economy is collapsing for two reasons. First, there is a globally synchronized deflationary recession in progress and Britian is entangled with the rest of the world’s economies in that collapse. Second, and the most destructive, Britian elected Brexit, which did real permanent damage to its economy, and it will not recover from that for generations - maybe never. The Bank of England’s efforts are completely insignificant compared to those two issues, and honestly nothing they could possibly do, tighten, loosen, raise or lower, would have any real effect at this point.
The Bank of England spied on the UK for the Germans in WWII. The British government actually allowed it as they thought they (the British government) were getting the more useful data. But it was noted that the Bank of England was much more enthusiastic about helping the Germans than helping the British. And that's the opinion of the British government of that period.
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The bank of England is older than the EU, it's possibly even older than most EU countries (at least in their current form). This has nothing to do with Brexit
Tell us you have no idea what you're talking about without telling us you have no idea what you're talking about.
@@FuzzyRiy He's just rightfully laughing at us, because brexiteers had been making fun of Germany & France for a while now.
When you hear about Morgan Stanley making record bank this quarter, you know this is why
Labours in power 6 months and suddenly Liz Truss was right all along. I can understand frustration at the BoE, but the hypocrisy (on both sides) annoys me.
She wishes it was that simple, but frankly, it isn't. Truss suddenly scared the market with a bunch of unfunded cuts when it was in a vulnerable state, whereas Labour's issue is more an issue of lacking long term confidence... Labour should be able to slowly mend that, but the media is resent to give them any time - They've been saying they ought to be chucked out every day since day 1.
ah, another enlightened centrist
@@kamil.g.m Centrism is the best ideology, seethe.
This is how voters in this country generally are now: selfish, uninformed, reactionary and never willing to accept responsibility for their actions.
@@effluxi9587
I agree. Truss' economic plans were genuinely a path to certain financial doom. There's no evidence of her idea that tax cuts for the rich give any economic boost, let alone one that covers the losses in tax revenue and borrowing. She was in a league of her own idiocy.
Labour are just stuck between a rock and a hard place because the Tories left them with 14 years of austerity, with the additional burden of loads of government debt, and Brexit making trading with our biggest market a nightmare. It will take a long time to fix long term problems, anybody offering a quick fix is a liar who would probably make things worse.
They did this to Liz Truss, not Rachel!
Liz shocked the markets.
@ BoE sabotaged her. They're not sabotaging Labour.
Liz acted extremely recklessly and immediately after a fiscal tinderbox that had been accumulating and smoldering for some time (you can find people warning about it in 2015) exploded.
Did it explode because of Liz? Was it a coincidence? Would it have exploded at some point anyway she just set it off slightly early?
We will never know. It suited everyone, especially those who assembled the tinderbox, to blame her.
She's the worst PM in British history regardless. The only reason there was a spark was that her budget was extremely reckless and pushed without even being reviewed by the cabinet. And that was basically the only thing she did so no good to counter the bad.
@@HALLish-jl5mo Agreed but something needs to be said as to why BoE even let the govt borrow and lent during QE... People found easy to blame on Liz but i think they did try to sabotage her from the beginning .
TLDR still trying to provide economic news coverage, without actually knowing what they are talking about.
Why don't you bring up a counter-argument for a change? Instead of spewing random statements, give actual proof. I don't agree with TLDR on a lot of things, but I'm also not stupid enough to claim they're wrong on the internet without a source, especially when they've provided considerably more evidence than you have.
People like you are the reason why politics is such a brawl all the time. All talk, no substance.
Please, if you _do_ have any idea what _YOU'RE_ talking about, edit your comment and provide some goddamn reasoning for your claims.
My understanding is that the quantitative tightening is to reduce inflation as it involves the destruction of money. All the quantitative easing that has already occurred resulted in massive inflation.
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well yes, they've been jacking up rates since 2022
EDIT: This makes money more expensive, and since 95% of M2 is bank credit, that means they're directly responsible for general price inflation (M2 isn't falling since credit demands go up when public sector spending declines). It's a yoke on the necks of salaried workers.
Labour and their depressing attitude and disaster out policies and corruption are to blame . ( as well as the top five dodgy banks )
I don’t think the problem is the central Bank of England trying to show off its independence from the rest of government. Even if the Bank of England cannot go ‘bankrupt’, if they continued to buy bonds at the rate labour wants them to, it will only mean more money going into circulation, which will only make inflation and interest rates stay higher for longer. The other problem is also value of the pound. If more notes were printed because BoE was open to buying more national debt, then that would be disastrous for the value of the sterling; and bear in mind that the UK is an import based nation which buys more in than it exports, the pound must have value internationally for us to buy in what we need.
Why do governments find the money to support other countries but wars but not to the support the NHS or local institutions that are failing. Transport etc
Because Gov't borrow money from mega banks, the mega banks tells them what to do with the money, they obey their WEF orders, and then pay back the money with tax payers money with interest. Remembering they never needed to borrow the money in the first place, the borrowing is about transferring the wealth.
Because supporting other countries isn't just dumping money into a black hole, for example aid to Ukraine achieves the goal of defending Europe/UK from any potential Russian military threat and can be used to recycle older weapon systems that cost more to decommission, whereas any similar funding to the MOD would be far less efficient for the same task.
@human4116they aren’t sending old weapons systems. The UK has sent over half its entire artillery park to Ukraine. The UK military is now unable to function due to critical shortages of literally everything, including men.
Partially true, the crutch to rely upon is NATO here and that's quite a powerful threat to anybody considering an attack.
The reason for aid is Europe cannot allow countries like Russia to walk over them, that incentivises other powers to try the same and also protects Ukraine, which is part of an investment countries like the UK have.
You also then have the moral standpoint
@ while I see your point the more Ukraine receives the less likely it is the UK will need to use those systems before they can be replaced. The alternative of NOT giving those systems is potentially having to fight Russia with NATO/EU and that will be far more expensive both in money and actual casualties.
The reason for the whole “make room for future quantitative easing” is because the BofE can’t afford to increase the money supply too much and because it probably did it too much in the previous emergency situations, it has to bring the average injections down, giving it headroom for the future.
£ is a fiat currency - they can print as much as they want
People blaming BoE are what you call “total idiots” and shouldn’t have the right to vote
BTW thanks for doing this follow up, it's too easy at moment for people to just say it's Labour's fault. Sure they aren't doing great but in this case the BoE is working against them.
I doubt the fools in government need any help .
It seems like the BoE decides policy on irrelevant technical goals rather than the national interest.
Its complicated. Doing QE forever will cause inflation and push asset prices up.