Kentucky Derby Handicapping Show 2024
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 เม.ย. 2024
- This is a preview of the 2024 Kentucky Derby from Churchill Downs. The Kentucky Derby field will be the topic of the conversation. We will take questions and get you ready for the Kentucky Derby 2024.
- กีฬา
Just A Touch or Dornoch. Updating my final rankings with the scratch of Encino…
Final 2024 Kentucky Derby Rankings
1. Fierceness (No. 16)
2. Sierra Leone (No. 2)
3. Just A Touch (No. 8)
4. Stronghold (No. 17)
5. Resilience (No. 18)
6. Just Steel (No. 6)
7. Catching Freedom (No. 4)
8. Honor Marie (No. 7)
9. Forever Young (No. 10)
10. Endlessly (No. 13)
11. West Saratoga (No. 12) 👀
12. Society Man (No. 19) 👀
13. Mystik Dan (No. 3)
14. Domestic Product (No. 14)
15. Epic Ride (No. 20)
16. Track Phantom (No. 11)
17. Dornoch (No. 1)
18. Catalytic (No. 5)
19. Grand Mo the First (No. 15)
20. T O Password (No. 9)
The number in parentheses is the post they’re breaking from. Not their program number. Fierceness will no longer break from the winless No. 17 and will break from No. 16.
I’m heavily considering tossing both Fierceness and Sierra Leone. This is the type of the race that can screw up everyone. We’re acting boastful now acting like some know-it-all but the last few Derbies have humbled us. Were you boastful when you watched Rich Strike passed right on by Epicenter and Zandon? Or how about when Angel of Empire only mustered up 3rd last year losing to a maiden winner who was unraced at 2? And Angel of Empire accomplished nothing after like Mage.
I don’t want to wait an entire year for the Derby to bet on favorites. And it’s not like the favorites have been winning the last 5 Derbies. I want to profit nicely. Fierceness and Sierra Leone have enough question marks that makes me want to toss both out. I’ll be tossing Forever Young too. These Japanese horses are the most annoying entries. I had Crown Pride in 2022 and he did nothing. UAE Derby winners are still 0-19. Why take Forever Young at anything below 20-1?
I still don’t know which ones will be my main plays. I wasn’t crazy when Stronghold and Resilience got No. 18 and No. 19 which is now No. 17 for Stronghold and No. 18 for Resilience. That post position draw was terrible for most of my top picks except for Honor Marie. Just A Touch was on the brink of falling out of my top 10 before he got No. 8.
With Encino out, I still think Just A Touch will run a 46 and 1:10. And if Fierceness is close, he’s going to fade next to Just A Touch like what I saw with Messier and Taiba in 2022 and Verifying and Reincarnate in 2023. Fierceness is already at a disadvantage even if he now gets post No. 16. There’s too much ground he’s already losing early. Racing gods keeps cursing Pletcher with bad post positions.
While that Blue Grass winner jinx may continue to grow to 33 years and it’s not like Sierra Leone had a fast closing time. West Saratoga closed faster than him. The two favorites’ odds are way too low for the questions they need to answer.
I may blindfold myself and pick my main plays from there. Maybe put win bets on Just A Touch, Stronghold, Resilience, Catching Freedom, Honor Marie, Just Steel, Endlessly, West Saratoga, Society Man, and Epic Ride. I need at least 8-1 on these horses. I refuse to play Fierceness and Sierra Leone at anything below 4-1. They’re starting to look like a sucker’s bet. Fierceness is another Derby favorite duping the betting public who think they know everything by looking at speed figures.
during betting the post positions didnt move . they still show fierceness in post 17
Dornoch Straight To The Front
Great show. Year in, year out the best Derby content in the game.
Thanks for watching, another Derby Weekend lining up. Enjoy the Big Day tomorrow.
Got some amazing exotic plays this year. Very excited spend a long time studying and dicing these horses this time.
Frisco Texas watching
Hello from Canada, with the scratch of Encino, guess who's not in post #17...fierceness
Good stuff Maynard
Abrumar Saffie's American Sprint entry with Paco Lopez getting the leg up
Fierceness is the best speed! I will not be using any speed horse!
Doc, Watching from Las Vegas
Another great show Craig! I was late to the party, but still loved every minute of it watching the replay. Thank you very much! 🏇
Catching freedom, domestic product
Great video. Thanks. I like Catalytic and everyone says I'm nuts. So what else is new? I had Mine that Bird in 2009. He figured. He was a mudder. A small horse who had won on mud previously. Check the tape. No other contender that year had ever won on mud. It was obvious to me. A small horse with wide feet. He skipped over the mud as the others sank into the mud like quicksand.
Deepest South London in the UK. Cracking days racing on Saturday both the Kentucky Derby and the first English Classic the 2000 Guinea's and then the Kentucky Derby. I think I like Just a Touch.
Nice, big races on both continents this weekend. Enjoy the Weekend.
Sierra Leone also of 20 good luck
Thanks Craig!
Dornoch AndJust A Touch Is Faster Than Last Years Pace Setters
Enjoyed the show
Well, if my girlfriends lemon muffin and everland with west Saratoga double hits; maybe she can afford to move out😏😁
Oregon City, OR Just a Touch for the win 🏆
Just a little touch of Mojo Hand -Pigpen
Exacta Box Sierra Leone, Honor Marie, Catching Freedom & Fierceness.
Good Luck Friday and Saturday.
I think it’s a moderate pace also depends if it’s going to be wet track or fast track Kevin from california
Laughlin Arizona on the river in the sun
The long run into the first turn also causes a fast early pace. I don't see anything different this year. Especially how some of the pace setters are spread around inside, middle and outside of the field. Velasquez will have to somehow work a trip and not get caught wide early. I see Dornoch and Track Phantom 1-2 early. Followed by Just A Touch, Catalytic, TO Password( after that fast workout) and Fierceness ( won't go as slow as the Florida Derby) after clearing the outside post. As the speed falls apart, Fierceness will be the first with Just A Touch to attack but will they hold off all the oncoming closers? I see Forever Young and Just Steel right behind them turning for home. Fierceness puts Just A Touch away but struggles with Forever Young's pressure and those two go to the wire with Just Steel nailing them all late. Box Just A Steel/ Forever Young / Fierceness. Throw in Catching Freedom in case Fierceness throws in another clunker or Forever Young is just another UAE flop. Win bet though on Just A Steel. Another Charismatic win for the Coach.
Forever young to fierceness
Honor Marie!
Good Luck on the Kentucky Derby
Can you tell me How I can buy a race program for the derby. Thank you
126 lbs... Endlessly, Resilience, will be comming , I kid you not
Stronghold is a good ‘ Long shot’ bet! Winners of Santa Anita Derby have a good track record in the Kentucky Derby.
Fierceness to win with my exacta horses being sierra leone catching freedom strong hold and the long shot catalytic that horse ran second to fierceness 13 lenghts behind fiercenss 1 48 1 for 9 furlongs in the florida derby
Downtown Las Vegas.
I'm still on fierceness
Ennis, deserves to win, so does Jose, and Dwayne Lucas
New York
❤❤❤❤
Gonna bet @ Sportsbook n Illinois I believe Hawthorne operates called Saddle Room / very nice $80..for all n derby glass ….big tent ⛺️ with 2 outdoor patio bars / very very nice 👍 2 hours from Milwaukee…
The curse of Apollo is those that have not run as 2yo's right?
Yes, horses that have not run at two are the curse of Apollo.
Real Quiet.....The Fish
The fish was pretty good.
@@derbyologist Yes he was. Saw when Victory Gallop ran him down at the wire. I think it was the toughest loss I ever seen. I think they were still paying out the $5 million Triple Crown bonus at that time.
Not True - New York Traffic Was Saffie First Derby Runner
What do you think of the Japanese horse that ran the UAE derby his knock is he doesn’t like dirt in his face do u think as handicapper does he has a chance??
I wonder if he's going to get sent to avoid kickback,then fractions will be faster especially if T. O. Password and Track Fanthom also go
Vegas Tim is hear for some winners
Just a touch and dornock on the lead then fierceness.
Forever young on the bottom
Longshot resilience and stronghold
Golden nugget in vegas
I dont hear many people taking sierra Leone
I'm 10 minutes from Churchill Downs
Dettori Will be closing his career in flying colors Now that they moved him to 19...
Good luck to all
Will be using 19 along with the Japanese horse, fearsness and seralione
These for the top 3 for the super will be using some wicked numbers
Forget Overrated Sierra Leone Andy Beyer Ain’t Impressed Neither Am I
I wouldn’t bet Dornoch with your money
I’ll Bet Him With My Money And Take Yours…
@@ianchefking5416 never won’t make it to the top of the stretch
@@user-ze9mk7vq6x but Sierra Leone Will
@@user-ze9mk7vq6x You’re A Action Player,Not An Analyst…I’ll Bet Him With Mine And Take Yours!
Doc, Watching from Las Vegas
Doc, Watching from Las Vegas
Doc, Watching from Las Vegas