buy extremely leveraged 2 week till expiration puts and make yourself really wealthy or entirely broke my market manipulating homie and remember if you do it once it goes public its legal
The secret to investing isn't trying to be right. It's figuring out who's wrong and betting against them. People are often rash in their decisions so it can be very profitable to invest on bad news that isn't that bad..
Most people overlook that institutional investors care about the next quarter so much because they're not deciding between investing in Chipotle or not investing in Chipotle. They're deciding between Chipotle and thousands of other investment options. They might think Chipotle is a good business with a good product, but if they think it's going to have a rough quarter, they are obligated to their employer, their clients, and yes themselves, to find a temporary alternative. Apple is always there to provide a near guaranteed 3% per quarter.
Problem, McDonald’s stock has barely dropped 5% since the outbreak became public. If that’s all you wanted to make then you could have just invested in the S&P over the past 3 days. The outbreak seems to have been contained and investors have learned their lesson about dumping these stocks prematurely.
@@screenwriterjohn It is a strong stock because it is a real estate company more than it is a 'food' company. McDonald's corporation makes most of it's revenue via monthly rent from the franchise owners, supplying them with their branded products and additional fees to cover the expenses of advertising, etc. Therefore, McDonald's corporation can not lose feeding off from thousands of captive franchise owners.
Great breakdown and use of information! It highlights the complexities involved in truly knowing a business and understanding a sector. Great content!!
What are your thoughts on Boars Head. They have also had some serious problems. Not sure if they will bounce back just as well as the previously mentioned
@MyExcellentOpinion so argentina has had a lot of fiscal problems, inflation has been through the roof. So they elected an economist for president who comes from the austrian school. In a few months now he really stifled inflation and argentine economy is really starting to recover now. I'm interested in watching a video about that and if there are any investment opportunities or something
@@bionicle37 depends on who you ask. it highly questionable that the economy is actually recovering and it seems that inflation maybe starting to increase again also one does have to treat the offical Argentine economic figures with caution because the current government certainly has a specific agenda and may fudging the figures to paint a somewhat rosier picture than is necessary reality. it is pretty hard to get a clear reading on aregntina at the moment because different sources say different things.
About 5 months ago my buddy told me chipotle was the same price as McDonald’s. Yeah we stopped going to McDonald’s. For $10-$12 you get way more food that’s a little bit better for you than McDonald’s is
I don’t know if it was mentioned but chipotle’s stock also went up because of help from a newly introduced man can’t remember the position or name but he made it go up and if I’m wrong somone please explain what I may be talking about
the video is not advice, and in the second half of the video I talk about what made Chipotle's turnaround unique from most restaurants that have been through a food safety scandal
@@HamishHodderthis comment reminds me of Drake being called a pedo then responding with “pfffft, I don’t have a daughter😂” 😂 cuz you didn’t address the big deal that is the *survivorship bias* presented by the commenter. As for the commenter, I’d like to hear which restaurants did *not* survive if any. This would be good to look into for a rebuttal but you chose to tackle the “advice” part of his comment instead.
@@Phosfit Chi-Chi's is one of the scarce cases where a poisoning scandal directly contributed to the bankrupcy of a chain. They had a Hepatitis A outbreak in 2003 and closed in 2004. Other cases are Jack in the Box (1993) and Sizzler (2000). Both companies survived, though many locations had to be closed. Sizzler later filed for bankrupcy due to Covid in 2020. Jack in the Box still exists, though its stocks have been declining last few years. No more cases to go over, really. Large fast food chains are too big to fail, I suppose :)
@@Phosfit The issue is that the vast majority of these ( I've yet to hear of one that was) cases were due to a supplier and not the restaurant themselves. People Also have a short memory. If the business is otherwise doing well but the stock drops due to a scare then the advice would be sound.
Anyone know if McDonald's will be implementing additional ecoli testing? There are many companies that make instant tests, might not move the needle a huge amount but if even one is used per franchise that's a huge order!
But I am by no means a prolific investor, something that I have focused on a lot in my personal investment journey is leveraging my knowledge of politics and history. Similar to this, using News, I remember that I was able to turn a $60 investment into a microcap company into a 10 X return because of the fact that news broke they were suing a much larger firm in the space. Of course I didn’t cash out because I was greedy, but I find this philosophy of investing to be interesting.
Aloha kakahiaka kakou,have you looked into RRGB.They did well coming out of the Pandamic thanks to the CEO Murphy who I personally met.I thought he did a good job keeping RRGB from going under.Sad to say he move on about a year ago I think the Pandemic took its toll on him.The new CEO GJ Hart who wants to be called GJ,for me that was a RED flag. Aloha
So you are saying I should poison people in resturants, wait for the stock to crash, and then invest.
Get people sick but not too sick to have you close down then wait it out and ride the wave
you have undetsood the mission
Yes but to make even more, buy some puts right before carrying out the mission to maximise profit 🤑🤑
@ ice. Double down. Buy short term puts and long term calls
buy extremely leveraged 2 week till expiration puts and make yourself really wealthy or entirely broke my market manipulating homie and remember if you do it once it goes public its legal
The secret to investing isn't trying to be right. It's figuring out who's wrong and betting against them. People are often rash in their decisions so it can be very profitable to invest on bad news that isn't that bad..
True. Once you understand that a stock price is purely based off peoples’ perceptions it becomes a little easier to understand value.
only problem with that is that ITS ALL PRICED IN. most movement is caused by institutions, and they know more than you.
Mcdonalds dropping 9% vs chipotle and jack in the box dropping 60%
McDonalds is world wide
I didn't even hear about the outbreak until now
Most people overlook that institutional investors care about the next quarter so much because they're not deciding between investing in Chipotle or not investing in Chipotle. They're deciding between Chipotle and thousands of other investment options. They might think Chipotle is a good business with a good product, but if they think it's going to have a rough quarter, they are obligated to their employer, their clients, and yes themselves, to find a temporary alternative. Apple is always there to provide a near guaranteed 3% per quarter.
This video took an extra week because I got food poisoning at McDonalds
Just kidding, had some personal matters to attend to. Back to weekly videos again :)
First to comment! bang!
@@HamishHodder.. hehe .. got me.
Great quality channel; thank-you for the video.
Hahahaha 😂
Agree, we can't just blindly invest in food-poisoning restaurants. MCD has much slower growth potential comparing to Chipotle.
Problem, McDonald’s stock has barely dropped 5% since the outbreak became public. If that’s all you wanted to make then you could have just invested in the S&P over the past 3 days. The outbreak seems to have been contained and investors have learned their lesson about dumping these stocks prematurely.
Exactly what I thought. At the beginning I went all in, for a miserable 1% 🙃
The issue is that you can't predict the bottom during downturns though (just like with pretty much any other stock)
Dollar 👏 cost 👏 average 👏
go all in after double bottom confirmation
@@joshwells3247no need in this case
Can we appreciate that there isn’t a single top comment bot or anything on this video
Great video showing the benefit of objectively assessing a companies underlying value and investing for the long term.
How has MCD "bounced back"? Stock is still at around 290-300. Formerly at 317.
It just dropped like 5%. Considering it was selling toxic cheesburgers, it's still a strong stock.
@@screenwriterjohn It is a strong stock because it is a real estate company more than it is a 'food' company. McDonald's corporation makes most of it's revenue via monthly rent from the franchise owners, supplying them with their branded products and additional fees to cover the expenses of advertising, etc. Therefore, McDonald's corporation can not lose feeding off from thousands of captive franchise owners.
End result once people understand this trade is that soon we'll see weird/inexplicable spikes in food company stocks after they have bad press.
Even they believe Chipotele will turn around, I wonder how many people had the patience to hold their Chipotle stock for 2 years, 2016-2018?
As 1 of my mentors there said “never waste a good crisis”
Great breakdown and use of information! It highlights the complexities involved in truly knowing a business and understanding a sector. Great content!!
As long as they survive Hamish...
I actually got it when it happened and told my friends about it. It's highest point was lik 316 I got it at 292 now its like 297 or 296. Great trade!
What are your thoughts on Boars Head. They have also had some serious problems. Not sure if they will bounce back just as well as the previously mentioned
A video about investing in the argentinian economy now that Milei's in charge would be interesting
Anyways, love your content dude
Can you respond with your thoughts? What benefits do you anticipate? I am not familiar with the transition.
@MyExcellentOpinion so argentina has had a lot of fiscal problems, inflation has been through the roof. So they elected an economist for president who comes from the austrian school. In a few months now he really stifled inflation and argentine economy is really starting to recover now. I'm interested in watching a video about that and if there are any investment opportunities or something
@@bionicle37 depends on who you ask. it highly questionable that the economy is actually recovering and it seems that inflation maybe starting to increase again also one does have to treat the offical Argentine economic figures with caution because the current government certainly has a specific agenda and may fudging the figures to paint a somewhat rosier picture than is necessary reality.
it is pretty hard to get a clear reading on aregntina at the moment because different sources say different things.
Great video! Very interesting
Enjoyed watching your and new moneys videos 😍 both channles are few among my favourites ❤
I bought crowdstrike after they had their major global crash. It was a good move. Same idea
The supplier for the dried onion for Macdonald food chain in USA it’s OFI!😱😱😱
I’m all in on chipotle
Great video! Thank you.
About 5 months ago my buddy told me chipotle was the same price as McDonald’s. Yeah we stopped going to McDonald’s. For $10-$12 you get way more food that’s a little bit better for you than McDonald’s is
Memo: Invest in food chain stocks while there is food poisoing->very profitable
why does it sound like you're saying "fruit poisoning" instead of "food poisoning"😂
😆
I dont know if i need to be worried or hyped 😂
Memo: Chipotle was dealing with a lot of food poisoning cases
Mcdonald stock is good because it's also real estate company
I don’t know if it was mentioned but chipotle’s stock also went up because of help from a newly introduced man can’t remember the position or name but he made it go up and if I’m wrong somone please explain what I may be talking about
this is called surivors bias and its terrible advice
the video is not advice, and in the second half of the video I talk about what made Chipotle's turnaround unique from most restaurants that have been through a food safety scandal
@@HamishHodderthis comment reminds me of Drake being called a pedo then responding with “pfffft, I don’t have a daughter😂” 😂 cuz you didn’t address the big deal that is the *survivorship bias* presented by the commenter.
As for the commenter, I’d like to hear which restaurants did *not* survive if any. This would be good to look into for a rebuttal but you chose to tackle the “advice” part of his comment instead.
@@Phosfit Chi-Chi's is one of the scarce cases where a poisoning scandal directly contributed to the bankrupcy of a chain. They had a Hepatitis A outbreak in 2003 and closed in 2004.
Other cases are Jack in the Box (1993) and Sizzler (2000). Both companies survived, though many locations had to be closed. Sizzler later filed for bankrupcy due to Covid in 2020. Jack in the Box still exists, though its stocks have been declining last few years.
No more cases to go over, really. Large fast food chains are too big to fail, I suppose :)
@@Phosfit The issue is that the vast majority of these ( I've yet to hear of one that was) cases were due to a supplier and not the restaurant themselves.
People Also have a short memory. If the business is otherwise doing well but the stock drops due to a scare then the advice would be sound.
This guy predicted mcdonalds.
so, the comments section isn't going as expected....
Survivorship bias 101 lol
Memo: There are different tipes of E. Coli
Anyone know if McDonald's will be implementing additional ecoli testing? There are many companies that make instant tests, might not move the needle a huge amount but if even one is used per franchise that's a huge order!
But I am by no means a prolific investor, something that I have focused on a lot in my personal investment journey is leveraging my knowledge of politics and history. Similar to this, using News, I remember that I was able to turn a $60 investment into a microcap company into a 10 X return because of the fact that news broke they were suing a much larger firm in the space. Of course I didn’t cash out because I was greedy, but I find this philosophy of investing to be interesting.
Memo: Most people who got E. Coli ate Beef Burger, also onions could be contaminated
how is this an important memo hahaha
@@alonewanderer4697So we know what to avoid lol
@@SingerDuce it's a hyperspecific case, next thing could be as well any burger, from any fastfood chain, any restaurant even
Very well done 👍✅ 🐐
How will RFK Jr's new position at "Department of Health and Human Services" affect these stocks, do you guys think?
Depends on what he actually does 🤔will he actual enforce changes if the industry that dissuade issue like this? Or is he all talk? We shall see………
"They didn't tell you?"
You best believe Buffet will be buying a crap of shares after this.
He is a suscriber
I predict peak junk food just passed
Amazing thumbnail art Hamish!
thank you!
I’m either gonna be rich or lose all my dough, but wish me luck
We love it
Thanks Hamish, really good video!
Me who’s down $500 on papa Johns stock
E. Coli found in the lower intestine
Aloha kakahiaka kakou,have you looked into RRGB.They did well coming out of the Pandamic thanks to the CEO Murphy who I personally met.I thought he did a good job keeping RRGB from going under.Sad to say he move on about a year ago I think the Pandemic took its toll on him.The new CEO GJ Hart who wants to be called GJ,for me that was a RED flag.
Aloha
Memo: E. Coli is food poisoning
exposing my secret
I like ur funny words magic man
I'd like to see evidence that it's professionals dumping, cuz that's what amateurs do.
As Peter Lynch says, smart money isn't so smart. And dumb money isn't so dumb.
Macdonald's and their investors all suck.
time to deport chipotle
Back in the day Ozempic wasn’t a thing… 😂
This is so funny.