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Agreed, but my hope is that Vlad has more intellectual & disciplinary credibility than Ross. Bob Ross was fascinating, especially the fake afro, but actually by most aesthetic standards a terrible artist. Ouch.
@@VladVexlerChat Yes!😸💚 Calm explanations and looking at situations, individuals, and countries in our socio-political sea is helpful in our byte driven information world. I also find your insights helpful in understanding that countries and people are dynamic, so there isn't always going to be easy or straightforward paths in our interactions or in what the people can or will do about things. You bring understanding and reflection, helping us to broaden our perspectives. We need your voice in these turbulent times. Glad to see your feeling better. Much love from the Left Coast California! 💜🌎🍀
The subject is fasinating. On point, semi-prophetic. TBH, i could probably listen to you talk about anything. i just have to pause and rewind a lot to grasp the depth. Thank you!
Thank you, Vlad, for being the sort of person who turns on the light or opens the curtains rather than flailing away in the dark hoping to hit something. You obviously care about finding the truth more than your popularity, and I am sure that for plenty of us you are a much-needed dose of lucidity.
The inner circle will develop a new post-Putin leader after a while and with little interaction with the broader populace. A historical parallel of Russia's trauma would be the replacement of Stalin, without much public negative outcry for the new leader. The usual theater in the Duma will vote for the new leader, giving the newcomer the required legibility. An interesting thought would be whether any Russian republics would take the opportunity to declare independence in the tumult after Putin's disappearance.
@@Cunning_Trout They are likely willing to take two steps backwards rather than continue to live under Russia's yoke, the two bitter Chechnya wars in which tens of thousands died demonstrates that the desire is there.
@@suzannstrohmaier2578 Yes there was something of a party in Berlin. Putin claims to have been traumatised by that year - there was no answer from Moscow to requests for orders. Other events of 1989 included the election of Solidarity as government in Poland and the fall of the Ceacescu regime in Romania. It was a dramatic year.
@iris1224wwad I remember one time a guy went on a plane with explosives in his underwear 😆 but they malfunctioned...he got burned and taken to jail...no one else got hurt. 💥💣
Even Nemtsov supported Putin’s candidacy, for example. Some people simply perceive political processes as a queue. Here is the elderly Joe (all coincidences are coincidental), finally it is his turn to become president, because he has been in the apparatus for so long. When there is no queue, frustration comes out.
@user-nl6zv6hz6x Biden was first elected in 1972 to the Senate...poor guy has earned a presidential term 😆 too bad he didn't get it a decade or two ago...so he could better enjoy the job. That's why having a queue and a plan are vital...normally the president and the vice president are supposed to fly on different planes....we aren't taking any chances over here. 🙄
Probably nothing overly dramatic. While the current system revolves around Putin, seems unlikely that people within the state apparatus would want the system to change or collapse entirely. They own their wealth and position to the current system. It works for them and they don't want to lose any of that. There may be some power struggles, but eventually they'll settle down for something.
Since the geographic region we call currently call Russia still is ruled by a well-entrenched kleptocracy, the only thing that would happen when Putin eventually is no longer in charge, is that the local regional kleptocrats would arrange a meeting to decide who takes over next. It's like the Mafia. Economic interests will always obtain. And economic activity can take place in Russia, only if the security/intelligence apparatus allows it. So until the underworld mafia that is really in control is eradicated, Russia will remain a pariah, with aging dangerous nuclear weapons, and nuclear annihilation blackmail as it's modus operandi. That's the real problem. We aren't dealing with a normal state here. Functionally, they are more like pirates.
It will be interesting to see how much they trust each other - they will be betting their lives, their families lives and their fortunes on the decency or malleability of the designated successor. But, in the Game of Thrones, you win or you die.
As a Russian citizen (antiwar) I agree with your analysis partially about our gov being mafia and holding "meetings to decide" after that, but I seriously doubt it's the ONLY thing that will happen. I'm absolutely sure there will be forces in that time and place those elites will need to acknowledge. Too many people want change. Putin's system stripped people of *any* political agency for ages. Your analysis as well counts as political agents only the elites and I don't blame you. The politics *always* forget this lesson, they think that ordinary ppl can't do sh## and don't give a f### about their schemes. Until the belt tightened too much and they are forced to show they *can* and *do*. By denying ppl *any* control over their lives Putin actually created a boiling kettle with a giant pressure from inside waiting to be opened. Few generations already yearn lo learn what is it like to live in a place with healthy politics and I'm sure I'll live long enough to see it.
@@shipso6116 Thnk you for the clarification. I agree with you, that the length of time which Russia has been forced to forgo any expression of honest populist sentiment has bred a hunger for change which is not articulated well in Western analysis. My apologies if I seemed to ignore that dimension here. I do believe there is a fair chance that, in select places, this underlying force may be able to surface. I really hope it does. Really, really hope so.
Hello beautiful community and thank you Vlad for another thought-provoking if a bit (if I might be so rude to say) rambly video. For those that want a deeper dive into this topic, I can only recommend Mark Galeotti's Podcast "In Moscow's Shadows" in particular the episode "120: Putin is Dead! (well, probably not)". I tend to have a soft spot for speculation and imagining the future, as such these episodes intrigue me greatly. Sadly, they also leave me a bit disillusioned by the fact that the west does not proactively work towards to creating conditions for certain events happen. Like trying to induce cracks in the regime or even having a plan for the post Putin future. Be that out of fear of nuclear escalation, shortsightedness, democratic incapacity, laziness or whichever. It sometimes feels like sitting in a car you cannot get out of, who’s driver can’t see the obstacles ahead until they are very close and if sees the obstacle, he takes a good while to yank the steering wheel around. So you sit in the car yelling at the driver and hoping you’ll come out alright on the other side, it didn’t work out all too bad in the past after all…
Something that strikes me, and this doesn't seem unique to Putin but is perhaps unique to certain brands of authoritarian regimes, there is no realistic succession plan. Is there some sort of self-selection at play that prevents authoritarians imagining their nations without them?
Agree Daniel. It's the autocratic trap. The Emperor cannot groom a successor who might decide to accelerate his career development. Nor can the Emperor build institutions which have legitimacy to determine the succession, because then those institutions are more legitimate than the Emperor. Monarchies at least had rules of succession as a basis for legitimacy, although that often did not work in practice.
It depends on what you consider an authoritarian regime. Was there an authoritarian regime in the USSR? Is current China an authoritarian regime? Is Iran authoritarian? In all these countries there was a transfer of power even without the death of a leader and without a coup.
In circumstances where the regime becomes unstable would the military have a role to play, apart from security/intelligence services? This has been a factor in other authoritarian regimes experiencing difficult domestic situations. Not saying this is where Russia is at present but perhaps a possible future scenario?
Democracy after a long period of an autocratic regime or dictatorship is possible. I'm Spanish, and after 40 years of dictatorship we have now a modern democracy, an imperfect one, like all democracies, but still a democracy. The difference with Russia is that in Spain they had experienced democracy before, which is not exactly the same for Russia,except for the short time with Gorbachev, a time that most Russians identify with chaos. Right now the majority of the population in Russia is completely apolitical. This is a bad thing now, but it could be a good thing after Putin, if they courageous enough to not be afraid of something new and different.
From an historical point of view, you are right. But i was analyzing the situation more from a psychological point. Germans after Hitler had to deal with guilt, that was not the case is Spain and it won't be the case in Russia, even regarding the war in Ukraine. They'll have to deal with freedom, not an easy task when you have been under oppression since always.
🍏 & 🍊. The Spanish had experienced democracy before, a muscular tradition of resisting centralized authority and were famous for political activism. None of which Russia has.
@@judithjorda-od5jz To whom should the Russians have guilt? The Israelis are probably very worried about killing 15,000 children and feel guilty before the Palestinian people?
but they will not be as strong as the one leader who was in power for decades, and a group of people can never be as extreme as a single person, for they will always have to compromise and thus choose something more regressing to the center;
@@jondoe1622 all power comes from the barrel of a gun, as comrade Mao said; If Prigozhin did no deal, he and his fighters wouldve died in Moscow; You cannot take a city of 10+ Million inhabitants with a couple thousand of soldiers (as he had) with no heavy artillery (which he could not bring, at speed); So what Moscow needs is someone much bigger and stronger than Prigozhin was, and thats a very tall order... (also, very bloody one)
He’s 70 now, he’ll be around (physically) until around 85-90 so 2040-2050 is when a change is quite naturally expected. Otherwise, there are absolutely no pre requisites for him leaving. Ever.
But in the case of Kruschev and Gorbachev they rose to power through the Soviet party apparatus as a means of achieving a modicum of legitimacy. The current system, insofar as there is a system, call it oligarchy, has no such structure from which to draw legitimacy. Seems to me any change would have to have a dynamic that is closer to the court of a king. A coup.
It seems evident to me that the person who would be considered most desirable would be someone who is perceived to have the ability to increase Russia's energy revenue streams.
Yes. What people are hoping for in the west simply won’t happen - namely a total delegitimisation of the structures of corruption and oppressive security services like what fell apart in the DDR. It simply won’t happen and any new leader will need to make an implicit/explicit bargain with the existing structures. The most that can be hoped for is that a new leader would pivot from the cod-historical teleological analysis of Putin and becomes more realistic in terms of geopolitics.
russia will experience a new period of turmoil for the redistribution of wealth accumulated by the oligarchs of the 90's. And likely, atleast some regions will try to break away
Doubtful. The Balkanization that would occur has likely already occurred with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Kazakhstan, he rest of the stans, and of course Ukraine left. The many ethnic minorities of Siberia and other areas stayed. That said, there will probably be renewed breakaway efforts in the Caucasus, however. Looking at you, Chechnya and Dagestan.
@guydreamr good point...I don't think there are that many people way into the Russian interior...so there would not be large viable regions trying to separate, besides the Caucasus regions.
When I think about decoupling myself from our circus of politics here in America.....I remember what Russia has become and know I must stay engaged. I feel the creep of utter powerlessness still...a nasty feeling.
Vlad have you looked into CIRS as a possible underlying reason for CFS? It’s not your thing per sa but there’s the top Doc specialist that was on Jordan Peterson few months back explaining what I suspected he’s had much of his life…it’s an 80 symptom possible issue often from a dysbiosis in the house which is breathed in I thought I had CFS for 24 years until I found out about CIRS MOLD BIOTOXIN illness 6 years ago Take good care and thanks for wonderful work
Regarding being able to evaluate evil acts for their brilliance/efficacy, I just watched part of a lecture by Sarah M.C. Paine where she talks about the brilliance of Hitler’s blitzkrieg. Initially it was jarring to hear someone say something so complimentary about him 😅
The upside of a Trump presidency will be to see how he resolves the Ukraine/Russia war in one day...he claims he can solve it in one day by speaking directly to Putin and Zelensky...if he can pull that off he would gain my respect...but highly doubtful...we all know how Trump likes to brag. 🤣
Yes, a crack in the regime that results in people being able to take action to express their position AND action that makes a difference. If political prisoners such as Kara-Murza are not released then you'll have your answer.
You wouldn't be talking about this if you didn't think the possibility has increased in the probability of the retiring of Putin's regime which is very hopeful. I'd say the likelihood is at least 30% up from 15% prior to this year. We can get the balloons and champagne ready but keep them on ice until summer is over and Putin's regime is stretched 20% more thin. Looking forward to that 50/50%.
Dear Vlad, I hope you'll see this question. I am terribly scared about the situation in my home country, Slovakia. Our government is taking more and more authoritarian turns, and to top it all off, our presidential election was just won by a coalition candidate who actually used fearmongering as a way to get himself elected (he said if the opposing candidate wins, we will go to war in Ukraine as soldiers). They are spewing militant anti-West rhetoric and it genuinely seems like at least half of our population is on the war path against anything West and Ukraine. I'm just scared, disappointed and terribly angry at all this. What would you recommend to us as a way forward, or at least how should we react so that we don't become second Hungary fast?
kHello Vlad. I cannot imagine any successor to Putin will be installed with much ease no matter who makes to choice. If the infighting at the top doesn't delay a transition trouble at street level might.
Is it possible to get the evil ghost back in the bottle? There is so much corruption and lawlessness committed by the regime, so many “good” people fled the country how to turn this around to a functional society?
Is this video an analysis of what could happen in Russia of Putin dies or is overthrown? Or, is this an effort to provide reasons or justification for us to believe the result we want will happen?/
A population so readily de-politicized doesn't give a strong prospect for any means of re-politicization any time soon. Far more likely, a new regime rumbles into place, hopefully at least more along the lines of a politburo than the current strong-man regime. Any other hope seems extravagant. Given the losses & instability induced by Putrin, there would be a collective elite interest in avoiding a repetition of the status quo ante. Other points in favor of a new-style politburo - less susceptible to esoteric theories of national destiny, more amenable (more personal interest) in Western re-engagement.
Clearly it would be naive to expect any grassroots rebellion in russia, but there must be a lot of discontent among the oligarchs, about which we hear almost nothing in the media. But surely that could be a major factor in Putin's potential downfall?
How different is Putin from Slobodan Milošević? Why couldn’t the Russian Federation follow the path of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia; all of the parts of which are now in the EU and are democracies? Why aren’t we talking about an endgame that mirrors the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia? The EU was designed to avoid further wars in Europe; it seems natural that we’d want to integrate the Russian space next?!
That's what I assumed would happen...but I guess it depends on Russia...if they want to join or not? and how friendly the EU is to include them. Right now the EU is not letting Russians in even to visit.
@@suzannstrohmaier2578 yeah but these things can quickly change; they treat Russians the way that they do because they’re proxies for Putin at this point, however unfair this is. Once Putin is gone things could rapidly change, especially if the west had a plan in place!
Glad to see that you're in better health.🌞I'm looking forward to the rest of the 70%. It will be interesting to see that transition without the structure and ideology of the Communist Party. Could ideological nationalism in a multi ethnic empire be feasible in a society based on self interest? What part will the interests of China (and the West) play? Will the desire for stability be paramount for all parties?Then there's the nukes??? Ukraine can only pray that day comes sooner than later. Thanks for getting the conversation started.🤔
I doubt much will change if it happens in the next few years. People aren't enamored of the Western model right now and will be happy enough aligning to the Chinese model. Times were different in the 1990s. Part of the problem is the Western ideal has degraded, but another important piece is just how hard it is to create a liberal democracy with high standards of living. People thought it would be easy post-Cold War but it proved much more challenging than anticipated. I think Russians will be happy enough if they can keep pace with China, Brazil, etc. and will look to the Chinese political system as being good enough. That means a strongman at the top is acceptable and a high level of state interference in daily life.
If it's 10 years from now it will be dependent on China's economic performance in that 10 years. There is some evidence that Xi's iron grip is degrading the country's economic prospects and that could certainly impact things.
Those tight-lipped Babushkas probably have a better idea than any of us, as I seriously doubt there will be any male heroes popping out of the forests. What I did find quite interesting now is Constantine's take on 'What Russia Will Look Like In 5 Years?' th-cam.com/video/dBtZbEaSly0/w-d-xo.html
Do you think that it would have been useful political technology for western leaders to... say that Putin blaming the Moscow terror attack on Ukraine despite another party claiming responsibility is, frankly, insane, and that the situation where Putin is serious about that insanity might be a contraindicator to his fitness as a public servant? Or in other words, speculate that Moscow's blame game could be the result of Putin's dementia? It certainly could backfire on western leaders, especially the United States, but in the case of Putin's authoritarian regime my hypothesis would be that such speculations of weakness could mobilize some sort of infighting between prospective heirs to his throne.
What people should really hope for is not for Putin to go or die - even though, I certainly wouldn't miss him. But what they should really hope or work for is to get rid of the System that makes someone like Putin possible. And that is much harder task. And one only the Russian people can achieve.
In the event that Putin dies or is overthrown, I agree that it is a fairytail scenario that power would be assumed by the Prime Minister as stated in the Russian Constitution. The current situation has many parallels with Stalin's rein as General Secretary. Stalin consolidated power by killing off his strongest potential opponents and successors. At his death, the soliviki fought it out among themse;ves. Beria, who was well positioned to succeed was undercut by a "whisper campaign" against him. And having only the military support of the KGB, was eventually hunted down and assassinated. The emerging winner was Krushchev, who controlled the army, a formidable force in Russia and who had survived by presenting himself as an innocuous subserviant. With the power of the army behind him, the remaining soliviki either fell or fell in line. Something like that is the most likely process of succession of Putin. With the army so completely and apparently incompetently focussed on Putin's fandango in Ukraine, it is not clear to me that the MOD head will be able to focus on succeeding Putin as head of state (or should I say pinacle of power). It is clear that Putin will die in 1-10 years and someone will succeed him, likely not someone he has chosen.
Your point about the efficacy of terrorist acts is very important. This is an area in which russia unfortunately seems to be winning, whether in terms of destroying civilian infrastructure or hybrid/cyber warfare against the West, covert ops etc. The West seems distressingly impotent against this.
Someone pointed to the example of 🇪🇸, but they had democratic experience, a muscular tradition of resisting centralized authority and were famous for political activism. None of which 🇷🇺 has. Worst of all, half of educated and liberal Russians have fled the country and few will return to bother with trying to establish democracy.
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To answer the title question: We dance!
Until someone else takes over
@@themetricsystem7967 Damn it.
@@themetricsystem7967 Enough of the giving out those negative waves
You’re confuse being realistic with being negative @@CollectiveWest1
Can I start polishing my shoes now ??
Your voice and cadence is so soothing- you are like the Bob Ross of sociopolitical theory.
Agreed, but my hope is that Vlad has more intellectual & disciplinary credibility than Ross. Bob Ross was fascinating, especially the fake afro, but actually by most aesthetic standards a terrible artist. Ouch.
@@petermelville5524 A link where we can see your paintings for comparison?
@@petermelville5524Nice waste of time even making this comment.
Ha ha 🌻
@@VladVexlerChat Yes!😸💚
Calm explanations and looking at situations, individuals, and countries in our socio-political sea is helpful in our byte driven information world. I also find your insights helpful in understanding that countries and people are dynamic, so there isn't always going to be easy or straightforward paths in our interactions or in what the people can or will do about things.
You bring understanding and reflection, helping us to broaden our perspectives. We need your voice in these turbulent times.
Glad to see your feeling better.
Much love from the Left Coast California! 💜🌎🍀
Well the first thing that happens is window repair loses its place as a lucrative career field.
Or there might be a surge in demand
Vlad!❤❤❤!!! You're up! Hallelujah!!!! Feeling better? Sending you love! And St. Bernard puppy hugs!!!❤❤❤❤❤❤❤
Bourbon? Or maybe Patron Gold?
I quit cigars over high blood pressure, but one more won't kill me.
Hello beautiful community
Hello right back atchya 😊
Xello*
The subject is fasinating. On point, semi-prophetic. TBH, i could probably listen to you talk about anything. i just have to pause and rewind a lot to grasp the depth. Thank you!
THE BEAUTIFUL COMMUNITY!!
Thank you, Vlad, for being the sort of person who turns on the light or opens the curtains rather than flailing away in the dark hoping to hit something. You obviously care about finding the truth more than your popularity, and I am sure that for plenty of us you are a much-needed dose of lucidity.
the light comes on when I open my fridge ice box
Greetings, Vlad!
Greetings!
The inner circle will develop a new post-Putin leader after a while and with little interaction with the broader populace. A historical parallel of Russia's trauma would be the replacement of Stalin, without much public negative outcry for the new leader. The usual theater in the Duma will vote for the new leader, giving the newcomer the required legibility. An interesting thought would be whether any Russian republics would take the opportunity to declare independence in the tumult after Putin's disappearance.
Chechnya and Dagestan, most likely.
@guydreamr both are ultimately unsustainable without Russian federal money. @@guydreamr
@@Cunning_Trout They both existed just fine for centuries before they were even a part of Russia.
are you seriously comparing the sustainability of 350k pre-RE tribal population of Dagestan with the 3.2 million nation it is today? @@guydreamr
@@Cunning_Trout They are likely willing to take two steps backwards rather than continue to live under Russia's yoke, the two bitter Chechnya wars in which tens of thousands died demonstrates that the desire is there.
He still has time to leave an heir if he can read enough casualty reports to get excited.
Hello 👋 Vlad!
Khello!
Party like it's 1999!
or 1989
@@CollectiveWest1November 89 I believe is when the Berlin Wall 🧱 came down 😊 there was a section of it at my local library on display awhile back. 👍
I'm sure Russia wants to go back to 1999.
Or 1991
@@suzannstrohmaier2578 Yes there was something of a party in Berlin. Putin claims to have been traumatised by that year - there was no answer from Moscow to requests for orders. Other events of 1989 included the election of Solidarity as government in Poland and the fall of the Ceacescu regime in Romania. It was a dramatic year.
Thanks, Vlad. ❤
Very useful. Thank you man.
I remember Putin riding in a horse drawn carriage in London with the Queen in 2014. Hope we don't get fooled again
It's good to see you vertical.❤
Thank you!
@@VladVexlerChat ♥️
Thanks!
Ok this time I am leaving a like and a comment organically 🌱 after watching the whole video
Very apt. Thank you.
Thanks
Putin might fall out a window 😊
Or drink a "special" tea 🍵 😋
Fancy a cuppa evil dwarf ?🤣🤣🤣🤣🤞
He may want to avoid underwear too. 😬
He'll get thrown out of his bunkers window 🤣🤣🤣
@iris1224wwad I remember one time a guy went on a plane with explosives in his underwear 😆 but they malfunctioned...he got burned and taken to jail...no one else got hurt. 💥💣
When Yeltsin's people settled on Putin, he didn't look anything like the powerful person he became
That's why term limits are so important...staying in power too long never works well.
@@suzannstrohmaier2578 They had that until he changed it.
@andriandrason1318 hopefully we never get to that point here in the USA...I guess their system was too new and fragile to maintain the rules.
Even Nemtsov supported Putin’s candidacy, for example. Some people simply perceive political processes as a queue. Here is the elderly Joe (all coincidences are coincidental), finally it is his turn to become president, because he has been in the apparatus for so long. When there is no queue, frustration comes out.
@user-nl6zv6hz6x Biden was first elected in 1972 to the Senate...poor guy has earned a presidential term 😆 too bad he didn't get it a decade or two ago...so he could better enjoy the job. That's why having a queue and a plan are vital...normally the president and the vice president are supposed to fly on different planes....we aren't taking any chances over here. 🙄
And the new leader says: This is my coup; How do you do? 🙂
Shades of Johnny Cash 😂.
Thank you
Thanks, Vlad!
🌻
Ruskimir - we've found the enemy and it is us 😱
The British world is no better
So, no predictions and who, where and how? And here I was gonna guess Colonel Mustard in the Kitchen with the Pipe.
Thanks for helping us think more clearly about a terrible situation with many agendas among the commentators .
Probably nothing overly dramatic. While the current system revolves around Putin, seems unlikely that people within the state apparatus would want the system to change or collapse entirely. They own their wealth and position to the current system. It works for them and they don't want to lose any of that.
There may be some power struggles, but eventually they'll settle down for something.
Take care of your country moron
Since the geographic region we call currently call Russia still is ruled by a well-entrenched kleptocracy, the only thing that would happen when Putin eventually is no longer in charge, is that the local regional kleptocrats would arrange a meeting to decide who takes over next. It's like the Mafia. Economic interests will always obtain. And economic activity can take place in Russia, only if the security/intelligence apparatus allows it. So until the underworld mafia that is really in control is eradicated, Russia will remain a pariah, with aging dangerous nuclear weapons, and nuclear annihilation blackmail as it's modus operandi. That's the real problem. We aren't dealing with a normal state here. Functionally, they are more like pirates.
It will be interesting to see how much they trust each other - they will be betting their lives, their families lives and their fortunes on the decency or malleability of the designated successor. But, in the Game of Thrones, you win or you die.
As a Russian citizen (antiwar) I agree with your analysis partially about our gov being mafia and holding "meetings to decide" after that, but I seriously doubt it's the ONLY thing that will happen. I'm absolutely sure there will be forces in that time and place those elites will need to acknowledge. Too many people want change. Putin's system stripped people of *any* political agency for ages. Your analysis as well counts as political agents only the elites and I don't blame you. The politics *always* forget this lesson, they think that ordinary ppl can't do sh## and don't give a f### about their schemes. Until the belt tightened too much and they are forced to show they *can* and *do*. By denying ppl *any* control over their lives Putin actually created a boiling kettle with a giant pressure from inside waiting to be opened. Few generations already yearn lo learn what is it like to live in a place with healthy politics and I'm sure I'll live long enough to see it.
I wonder how did the CPSU turn into a mafia infestation post collapse?
@@shipso6116 Thnk you for the clarification. I agree with you, that the length of time which Russia has been forced to forgo any expression of honest populist sentiment has bred a hunger for change which is not articulated well in Western analysis. My apologies if I seemed to ignore that dimension here. I do believe there is a fair chance that, in select places, this underlying force may be able to surface. I really hope it does. Really, really hope so.
Why attack and invade the territory of the Russian Federation, and be afraid of receiving nuclear approval?
Hello beautiful community and thank you Vlad for another thought-provoking if a bit (if I might be so rude to say) rambly video.
For those that want a deeper dive into this topic, I can only recommend Mark Galeotti's Podcast "In Moscow's Shadows" in particular the episode "120: Putin is Dead! (well, probably not)".
I tend to have a soft spot for speculation and imagining the future, as such these episodes intrigue me greatly. Sadly, they also leave me a bit disillusioned by the fact that the west does not proactively work towards to creating conditions for certain events happen. Like trying to induce cracks in the regime or even having a plan for the post Putin future. Be that out of fear of nuclear escalation, shortsightedness, democratic incapacity, laziness or whichever. It sometimes feels like sitting in a car you cannot get out of, who’s driver can’t see the obstacles ahead until they are very close and if sees the obstacle, he takes a good while to yank the steering wheel around. So you sit in the car yelling at the driver and hoping you’ll come out alright on the other side, it didn’t work out all too bad in the past after all…
What does the West care about Russia, is it an aggressor?
He'd better not get a city named after him.
He could get a "Vladimir Putin, Russia" LUL
Something that strikes me, and this doesn't seem unique to Putin but is perhaps unique to certain brands of authoritarian regimes, there is no realistic succession plan. Is there some sort of self-selection at play that prevents authoritarians imagining their nations without them?
Agree Daniel. It's the autocratic trap. The Emperor cannot groom a successor who might decide to accelerate his career development. Nor can the Emperor build institutions which have legitimacy to determine the succession, because then those institutions are more legitimate than the Emperor. Monarchies at least had rules of succession as a basis for legitimacy, although that often did not work in practice.
Any succession plan becomes a roadmap to coup.
It depends on what you consider an authoritarian regime. Was there an authoritarian regime in the USSR? Is current China an authoritarian regime? Is Iran authoritarian? In all these countries there was a transfer of power even without the death of a leader and without a coup.
What I'm curious of is what kind of scenario could cause the severe weakening or destruction of russian troll farms and misinformation capabilities.
I wonder if Anonymous is still working on it. Doubt there is any way to end them.😢
Mr Vlad, intriguing evaluation of the possibilities of post putin outcomes.
The devil cannot die....
Yup, they will prop him up with body doubles while looting his trillion dollar stash.
In circumstances where the regime becomes unstable would the military have a role to play, apart from security/intelligence services? This has been a factor in other authoritarian regimes experiencing difficult domestic situations. Not saying this is where Russia is at present but perhaps a possible future scenario?
Democracy after a long period of an autocratic regime or dictatorship is possible. I'm Spanish, and after 40 years of dictatorship we have now a modern democracy, an imperfect one, like all democracies, but still a democracy. The difference with Russia is that in Spain they had experienced democracy before, which is not exactly the same for Russia,except for the short time with Gorbachev, a time that most Russians identify with chaos. Right now the majority of the population in Russia is completely apolitical. This is a bad thing now, but it could be a good thing after Putin, if they courageous enough to not be afraid of something new and different.
Russia's situation is closer to Germany before 1945. With the 90s being its Weimar era.
From an historical point of view, you are right. But i was analyzing the situation more from a psychological point. Germans after Hitler had to deal with guilt, that was not the case is Spain and it won't be the case in Russia, even regarding the war in Ukraine. They'll have to deal with freedom, not an easy task when you have been under oppression since always.
🍏 & 🍊. The Spanish had experienced democracy before, a muscular tradition of resisting centralized authority and were famous for political activism. None of which Russia has.
@@The_ZeroLine Tha'ts what I said on my first comment. Apparently you haven't read it entirely.
@@judithjorda-od5jz To whom should the Russians have guilt? The Israelis are probably very worried about killing 15,000 children and feel guilty before the Palestinian people?
👍⭐️⭐️⭐️ Excellent as usual 👍☘️☘️
Nothing. The remaining vultures will still be there.
A lot of uncertainty and chaos is certain.
but they will not be as strong as the one leader who was in power for decades,
and a group of people can never be as extreme as a single person, for they will always have to compromise and thus choose something more regressing to the center;
@@peka2478in Russia power comes from the gun. And from an unwillingness to fight those guns. What Moscow needs is a Prigozin that does no deals.
@@jondoe1622 all power comes from the barrel of a gun, as comrade Mao said;
If Prigozhin did no deal, he and his fighters wouldve died in Moscow;
You cannot take a city of 10+ Million inhabitants
with a couple thousand of soldiers (as he had) with no heavy artillery (which he could not bring, at speed);
So what Moscow needs is someone much bigger and stronger than Prigozhin was, and thats a very tall order...
(also, very bloody one)
@@peka2478 who would stand for a bunch of oligarchs that evacuated Moscow at the first sign of trouble? You?
Hmmmm, where is our dear Mr Vexler? One hopes that he is okay. x
He’s 70 now, he’ll be around (physically) until around 85-90 so 2040-2050 is when a change is quite naturally expected. Otherwise, there are absolutely no pre requisites for him leaving. Ever.
I suspect he'll be dead by 2030.
But in the case of Kruschev and Gorbachev they rose to power through the Soviet party apparatus as a means of achieving a modicum of legitimacy. The current system, insofar as there is a system, call it oligarchy, has no such structure from which to draw legitimacy. Seems to me any change would have to have a dynamic that is closer to the court of a king. A coup.
Yes - there is no place from which the legitimacy of the next leader can come from. It’s a non hereditary monarchy, in some respects.
It seems evident to me that the person who would be considered most desirable would be someone who is perceived to have the ability to increase Russia's energy revenue streams.
Dear Vlad, after Putin comes Shmutin. Thats all.
The civilized world will erupt in celebration.
party time
A leader just as bad will replace him and continue on.
Don't wish that please..
Well. Or….theycould blame P for the crap of these last years and start afresh
Yes. What people are hoping for in the west simply won’t happen - namely a total delegitimisation of the structures of corruption and oppressive security services like what fell apart in the DDR. It simply won’t happen and any new leader will need to make an implicit/explicit bargain with the existing structures. The most that can be hoped for is that a new leader would pivot from the cod-historical teleological analysis of Putin and becomes more realistic in terms of geopolitics.
@@mariarucci78 I wish the russian popolous wasn't as Slave-minded and realized that.
I need to re-watch the last Q&A before I'll be ready to say anything substantive. Algorithmically, though, I assume that a comment is a comment.
russia will experience a new period of turmoil for the redistribution of wealth accumulated by the oligarchs of the 90's. And likely, atleast some regions will try to break away
Balkanization is what will happen
Delusional.
Most likely true. Russia will fracture into new nations. It will likely get pretty bloody too.
@Jack_Ragnarsson I pray it does not go like that 😢 hopefully some rational voices can speak up to avoid a civil war.
Doubtful. The Balkanization that would occur has likely already occurred with the collapse of the Soviet Union. Kazakhstan, he rest of the stans, and of course Ukraine left. The many ethnic minorities of Siberia and other areas stayed. That said, there will probably be renewed breakaway efforts in the Caucasus, however. Looking at you, Chechnya and Dagestan.
@guydreamr good point...I don't think there are that many people way into the Russian interior...so there would not be large viable regions trying to separate, besides the Caucasus regions.
Looking at how Putin came to (was emplaced) in power to replace putin is also interesting now imo
Great, that you know Grigory Judin. He is probably one of the most interesting russian speakers about politics.
The bulk of the Russian people will continue on business as usual
Like most of humanity, this is not some unique skill of Russians.
Not sure it would make a difference
Hello VLAVCHIK what if Putin wants to retire slowly to the shadows?
Does it really change russia?
You look mighty great 😃 brosky...😊😊😊
I would like to add the election of Ceaușescu as another example of a seemingly weak and easily controlled candidate that turns out not to be so.
Generic comment for the yt algorithm. Slava Ukraini!
😆🤙
💙💛💙💛
If? When!
Those sound like the same thing.
Not if, when!
How might Russia root out the legacy of the Golden Horde from its political culture?
When I think about decoupling myself from our circus of politics here in America.....I remember what Russia has become and know I must stay engaged. I feel the creep of utter powerlessness still...a nasty feeling.
"I remember what Russia has become" ?
@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u Present tense indicative.
@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u Present indicative tense.
@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u Present indicative tense.
@@EvgeniyYakushev-m2u Present indicative tense.
Vlad have you looked into CIRS as a possible underlying reason for CFS? It’s not your thing per sa but there’s the top Doc specialist that was on Jordan Peterson few months back explaining what I suspected he’s had much of his life…it’s an 80 symptom possible issue often from a dysbiosis in the house which is breathed in
I thought I had CFS for 24 years until I found out about CIRS MOLD BIOTOXIN illness 6 years ago
Take good care and thanks for wonderful work
Regarding being able to evaluate evil acts for their brilliance/efficacy, I just watched part of a lecture by Sarah M.C. Paine where she talks about the brilliance of Hitler’s blitzkrieg. Initially it was jarring to hear someone say something so complimentary about him 😅
Play something on the piano!
Jingle bells with one finger
When*
What does putin do....if Trump doesn't become president
Good question
How will this change anything?
The upside of a Trump presidency will be to see how he resolves the Ukraine/Russia war in one day...he claims he can solve it in one day by speaking directly to Putin and Zelensky...if he can pull that off he would gain my respect...but highly doubtful...we all know how Trump likes to brag. 🤣
Yes, a crack in the regime that results in people being able to take action to express their position AND action that makes a difference. If political prisoners such as Kara-Murza are not released then you'll have your answer.
You wouldn't be talking about this if you didn't think the possibility has increased in the probability of the retiring of Putin's regime which is very hopeful. I'd say the likelihood is at least 30% up from 15% prior to this year. We can get the balloons and champagne ready but keep them on ice until summer is over and Putin's regime is stretched 20% more thin. Looking forward to that 50/50%.
Dear Vlad, I hope you'll see this question. I am terribly scared about the situation in my home country, Slovakia. Our government is taking more and more authoritarian turns, and to top it all off, our presidential election was just won by a coalition candidate who actually used fearmongering as a way to get himself elected (he said if the opposing candidate wins, we will go to war in Ukraine as soldiers). They are spewing militant anti-West rhetoric and it genuinely seems like at least half of our population is on the war path against anything West and Ukraine. I'm just scared, disappointed and terribly angry at all this. What would you recommend to us as a way forward, or at least how should we react so that we don't become second Hungary fast?
kHello Vlad. I cannot imagine any successor to Putin will be installed with much ease no matter who makes to choice. If the infighting at the top doesn't delay a transition trouble at street level might.
Is it possible to get the evil ghost back in the bottle? There is so much corruption and lawlessness committed by the regime, so many “good” people fled the country how to turn this around to a functional society?
Aside from his potentially dangerous position, Putin is only 71. He could easily live for another 10+ years or more.
In Russia that's very close to men's life expectancy !
God hears that you want Vlad - whatever his last name - to die, and he may be in the mood for playing a prank on you.
"Да, человек смертен, но это было бы ещё полбеды. Плохо то, что он иногда внезапно смертен, вот в чем фокус!" - M. Bulgakov
Is this video an analysis of what could happen in Russia of Putin dies or is overthrown? Or, is this an effort to provide reasons or justification for us to believe the result we want will happen?/
A population so readily de-politicized doesn't give a strong prospect for any means of re-politicization any time soon. Far more likely, a new regime rumbles into place, hopefully at least more along the lines of a politburo than the current strong-man regime. Any other hope seems extravagant. Given the losses & instability induced by Putrin, there would be a collective elite interest in avoiding a repetition of the status quo ante. Other points in favor of a new-style politburo - less susceptible to esoteric theories of national destiny, more amenable (more personal interest) in Western re-engagement.
When you say the population, do you mean Moscow and St Petersburg ?
Clearly it would be naive to expect any grassroots rebellion in russia, but there must be a lot of discontent among the oligarchs, about which we hear almost nothing in the media. But surely that could be a major factor in Putin's potential downfall?
Slava Ukraini! 🇺🇦✊🇬🇧🏴
How different is Putin from Slobodan Milošević? Why couldn’t the Russian Federation follow the path of the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia; all of the parts of which are now in the EU and are democracies? Why aren’t we talking about an endgame that mirrors the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia? The EU was designed to avoid further wars in Europe; it seems natural that we’d want to integrate the Russian space next?!
That's what I assumed would happen...but I guess it depends on Russia...if they want to join or not? and how friendly the EU is to include them. Right now the EU is not letting Russians in even to visit.
@@suzannstrohmaier2578 yeah but these things can quickly change; they treat Russians the way that they do because they’re proxies for Putin at this point, however unfair this is. Once Putin is gone things could rapidly change, especially if the west had a plan in place!
Glad to see that you're in better health.🌞I'm looking forward to the rest of the 70%. It will be interesting to see that transition without the structure and ideology of the Communist Party. Could ideological nationalism in a multi ethnic empire be feasible in a society based on self interest? What part will the interests of China (and the West) play? Will the desire for stability be paramount for all parties?Then there's the nukes??? Ukraine can only pray that day comes sooner than later. Thanks for getting the conversation started.🤔
Which crack happens first?
I doubt much will change if it happens in the next few years. People aren't enamored of the Western model right now and will be happy enough aligning to the Chinese model. Times were different in the 1990s. Part of the problem is the Western ideal has degraded, but another important piece is just how hard it is to create a liberal democracy with high standards of living. People thought it would be easy post-Cold War but it proved much more challenging than anticipated. I think Russians will be happy enough if they can keep pace with China, Brazil, etc. and will look to the Chinese political system as being good enough. That means a strongman at the top is acceptable and a high level of state interference in daily life.
If it's 10 years from now it will be dependent on China's economic performance in that 10 years. There is some evidence that Xi's iron grip is degrading the country's economic prospects and that could certainly impact things.
Those tight-lipped Babushkas probably have a better idea than any of us, as I seriously doubt there will be any male heroes popping out of the forests. What I did find quite interesting now is Constantine's take on 'What Russia Will Look Like In 5 Years?' th-cam.com/video/dBtZbEaSly0/w-d-xo.html
Oh yes, the famous "Outside Russia" guy. He will definitely tell you exactly what you want to hear.
Do you think that it would have been useful political technology for western leaders to... say that Putin blaming the Moscow terror attack on Ukraine despite another party claiming responsibility is, frankly, insane, and that the situation where Putin is serious about that insanity might be a contraindicator to his fitness as a public servant? Or in other words, speculate that Moscow's blame game could be the result of Putin's dementia? It certainly could backfire on western leaders, especially the United States, but in the case of Putin's authoritarian regime my hypothesis would be that such speculations of weakness could mobilize some sort of infighting between prospective heirs to his throne.
Like Bush used a tragedy to invade Iraq, or how Israel uses a tragedy to attack Iran and Syria.
What's new?
What people should really hope for is not for Putin to go or die - even though, I certainly wouldn't miss him. But what they should really hope or work for is to get rid of the System that makes someone like Putin possible.
And that is much harder task. And one only the Russian people can achieve.
Lord, the guy could be dead already! We could be looking at his botox double for all wr know.
Many young Russian believe it
We haven't seen yet Putin's final form.
😬
Everyone’s final form is worm food.
@@georgemorley1029 nihilism? Fine line between a realist and a fatal nihilist.
In the event that Putin dies or is overthrown, I agree that it is a fairytail scenario that power would be assumed by the Prime Minister as stated in the Russian Constitution. The current situation has many parallels with Stalin's rein as General Secretary. Stalin consolidated power by killing off his strongest potential opponents and successors. At his death, the soliviki fought it out among themse;ves. Beria, who was well positioned to succeed was undercut by a "whisper campaign" against him. And having only the military support of the KGB, was eventually hunted down and assassinated. The emerging winner was Krushchev, who controlled the army, a formidable force in Russia and who had survived by presenting himself as an innocuous subserviant. With the power of the army behind him, the remaining soliviki either fell or fell in line. Something like that is the most likely process of succession of Putin. With the army so completely and apparently incompetently focussed on Putin's fandango in Ukraine, it is not clear to me that the MOD head will be able to focus on succeeding Putin as head of state (or should I say pinacle of power). It is clear that Putin will die in 1-10 years and someone will succeed him, likely not someone he has chosen.
The first thing you have to avoid when having this conversation is You Tube. I'm surprised you haven't been demonetized, Vlad.
HA! My first reply to myself deleted by TH-cam.
test
Your point about the efficacy of terrorist acts is very important. This is an area in which russia unfortunately seems to be winning, whether in terms of destroying civilian infrastructure or hybrid/cyber warfare against the West, covert ops etc. The West seems distressingly impotent against this.
Someone pointed to the example of 🇪🇸, but they had democratic experience, a muscular tradition of resisting centralized authority and were famous for political activism. None of which 🇷🇺 has. Worst of all, half of educated and liberal Russians have fled the country and few will return to bother with trying to establish democracy.
What happens if you die? Can happen.
let's talk about how to talk about it ? are Russians just congenitally predisposed to circumlocution ?