The performance on the actual event will also play a major role in the voting. I have not yet heard all the entries this year, not sure if I want to either, but vote on the semi-finale from that perspective. Anyway, looking forward to May, the Eurovision week is always fun, and I probably will watch these in the local gay bar, as usual.
Hello Jan, actually I only have a safe top 5 for Semi 2: Norway, Belgium, Armenia, Switzerland and Greece 😍 I have no idea what to do and think about the other countries 😅(In semi 1 I have a safe top 8: Slovenia, Ukraine, Portugal, Croatia, Lituhania, Autralia, Finland and Serbia.)
These analysis were quite insightful since I believe there tends to be a belief in the fandom that everything up-tempo, funny and danceable it's a hit with televote, so to hear that some countries rather want something slower and more serious was quite surprising. Gonna be very interesting how that will turn out in semi 2 since there are a lot of the former rather than the later type of songs.
That was a crazy video! 😂 Really liked it. You clearly have a lot of love for Eurovision. I did a prediction myself based on my gut feeling, being a Eurovision fan since the eighties and kind of knowing how countries voted over the years. The funny thing is that my predictions are almost the same as yours: My predicted qualifiers: Austria, Switzerland, Albania, Denmark, Armenia, Israel, Netherlands, Norway, Latvia and Belgium. I put Latvia in because Latvia has a universal quality. Estonia out because I think the Netherlands will eat away at their points. I agree with you, bring back the juries in the semis, it will help with the quality of the songs. I also predict Ukraine to win. General appeal to both juries and public when it comes to the type of song. Plus the song has a message of hope that people are yearning for in these complicated times.
Thank you for the excellent analysis based in statistics.... Lets see what happens on the stage that night ... Till then we enjoy the beautiful travel and camva of all songs!!!!! Much love from the county that creatived a awesome chaos this year that symbolize all the mixe and culture between us😅❤ Greetings from Greece❤🎉🎉
I can't imagine Spain not giving any points to Greece, its very Mediterranean, Rosalia-like song. I think they will give it at least 8 points. Same for Malta
I cannot imagine many things comes from data, thats why I am curious. This year is very different than previous ones. So lets see if data can tell us something or would be more relevant to wait few years with just public voting.
That was fun! But 2 notes: 1.France 100% gives 12 points to israel (or 10 at least) 2. 12 and 10 points from israel will go to the Netherlands and greece probably
I believe Israel voters will firstly en mass support countries who openly supports them. But I may be wrong as if not, Netherland is a first choice for sure.
Hi Jan. As a DA i also have to do a prediction, 1st just be clear, but will be more ;P Looks kind of similar. 1Switzerland 143 2Netherlands 114 3Norway 113 4Greece 96 5Estonia 93 6Armenia 92 7Israel 87 8Belgium 73 9Latvia 66 10Albania 64 11Denmark 51 12Austria 40 13Georgia 20 14Czechia 18 15San Marino 17 16Malta 15
Cool thing about RoW, only we get to vote in both semifinals. I actually think all countries should be voting in both semi's, it would increase revenue and generate more engagement. Why not?
Predicting the point from my country🇧🇻: 12. Netherlands 🇳🇱 (sounds like something that is charting in Norway and could be a reaction to the norwegians dislike of the juries) 10: Denmark 🇩🇰 ( is not a lock for 12p, Norway gave them 8p in 2019 and 4p in 2022 and 4p in 2017. But I think this is a better entry, and 7p at least is secured.) 8. Belgium 🇧🇪 it is the better ballad, and it got a great reaction in some ESC facebook groups) 7. Switzerland 🇨🇭 (a quality entry, also being lgbt might help) 6. Estonia 🇪🇪 (a fun song with some traditional elements, our commentator will probably make a funny joke) 5. Latvia (usually not getting points from Norway, we have a huge Lithuanian diaspora, so maybe the baltics are artificially high in your estimations. But i think the televoters will connect with the message of the song. 4. Armenia 🇦🇲 (a fun traditional song, has its audience ) 3. Israel 🇮🇱 (remember that you can't vote down song, even if the country is more pro palestinian, the people who support 🇮🇱 will vote for this song.) 2. Austria 🇦🇹 (a fun throwback song, could do much better if they get high points in our preview show Adresse Malmø, I think France got 8p from the Norwegian televote last year because they won the show and a lot of boomers really loved the song. ) 1. Albania 🇦🇱 (the last point is just a wild guess, Albania is the most mainstream)
I agree with Jans on this one. Greece is giving me eaea vibes. I know they're completely different but I can't see the casuals warming to it at all. That said i have it as borderline as opposed to out because diaspora plus fandom could be enough like Serbia 2023.
@@han-oq6bo there are more balkan and Mediterranean countries that can relate to this song than countries that are used to flamenco so I think it's different
This takes as granted that televoters vote worse than the juries. And yet all the recent years we have learned that the juries bombed great entries and the viewers actually made a lot of justice restoring.
for examples juries dont make so often neighbour voting with some exceptions, also juries just logicaly tend to focus on different stuff than public - diaspora votings are the nice examples. You may not agree what juries are voting for. Thats ok. The main point is, that this lost of balance will cause lesser quality songs in future as many of artists / songwriters / producers just stop to being interested in the contest again.
@@pickacard4474 but I did, there are patterns of public voting quite clear. Even though it can be still absolutelly different as what I am saying in the video. It can be also just a curiosity. I would be glad if those would not be real and everything is unpredictable.
I'm actually fine with losing Marina in the semifinal. I dislike the song. I do hope your prediction is correct. Brilliant analysis, by the way! I appreciate your bringing reason to a very emotional competition!
Will all five of the same group qualify: Armenia, Estonia, Greece and Swizerland and The netherlands ? Seems not likely. They are in the same group: funny songs with almost no lyrics.
I cut off those exceptions or uniques, as they were somewhere else. And also that goes for more other exceptions, f.e. ukraine, or finland last year. Thats why Switzerland receives so many points.
As I said - if country with such limits like f.e. Malta - its more complicated (without juries) and must rly send exceptional song to be secured. Its pitty but I kinda thing its also a sad fact. Will be much harder for Malta.
@@JanBors Good to know. Nutsa is the only reason I am following Eurovision this year. I think you very much underestimating her. Remember Nutsa reached the top 12 on American Idol as a non-American contestant (this was unprecedented), she received standing ovations from Katy Perry, Luke Bryan and Lionel Richie after every live shows. Katy and Brian were screaming "Nuts for Nutsa!" She has amazing vocals, style and she can dance. She is an incredible performer. I do not see how she is not going to be in the final. She can be in the top 5 or win the whole thing if this was not a political contest.
There is not a single world hit in this year's Eurovision. In 2021 it was Zitti e buoni. In 2022 it was a Snap. In 2023 it was a Tattoo. and this year (2024) it's no song. And what is this due to? Well, it's because many more countries have chosen this year to listen to these idiotic fans who want all songs in their native language and all songs to be as alternative and weird as possible. And therefore, no world hits. That's it. When it comes to your data, I think most of it is realistic. But I think Latvia is completely wrong here. They will get some points from Estonia and then 0 from everyone else! Only my prediction, thats it. 👍
Well as much as Jan and so many of the Fandom hate it I think the most likely one is Dizzy by Olly Alexander. It has support from his fans around the world on his page, someone said they heard it playing in Taco Bell in Tokyo, someone else hears it regularly on the radio in Kazakhstan. I've seen reactions to it from Americans who don't know about Eurovision. As I said, it may be unpopular at Eurovision but in my very humble opinion probably the most world friendly from this year.
if you don't like the Latvian song, shut up and listen to another one, why are you discriminating against the artist? whatever Latvia or Georgia and others send will never be good enough.
The performance on the actual event will also play a major role in the voting. I have not yet heard all the entries this year, not sure if I want to either, but vote on the semi-finale from that perspective. Anyway, looking forward to May, the Eurovision week is always fun, and I probably will watch these in the local gay bar, as usual.
enjoy!!! :)
Hello Jan, actually I only have a safe top 5 for Semi 2: Norway, Belgium, Armenia, Switzerland and Greece 😍 I have no idea what to do and think about the other countries 😅(In semi 1 I have a safe top 8: Slovenia, Ukraine, Portugal, Croatia, Lituhania, Autralia, Finland and Serbia.)
I made my calculations for sf1 and its wild.
Actually san marino used a jury vote last year so I am expecting them to jury vote again.
Soo happy to see Latvia qualifying in your prediction!
lets see if those numbers are close to reality or not
@@JanBors i hope they are, Latvia needs to qualify this year, and i see so many scenarios that they gonna qualify
These analysis were quite insightful since I believe there tends to be a belief in the fandom that everything up-tempo, funny and danceable it's a hit with televote, so to hear that some countries rather want something slower and more serious was quite surprising. Gonna be very interesting how that will turn out in semi 2 since there are a lot of the former rather than the later type of songs.
Lets see, I kinda hope I interpreted that data wrongly 😂
Thanks for the interesting prediction review, it makes a lot of sense, I watched with great interest from start to finish.
🙏🙏🙏 it takes a lot of work, so I am glad you watched it all ❤️🙏
That was a crazy video! 😂 Really liked it. You clearly have a lot of love for Eurovision.
I did a prediction myself based on my gut feeling, being a Eurovision fan since the eighties and kind of knowing how countries voted over the years. The funny thing is that my predictions are almost the same as yours:
My predicted qualifiers: Austria, Switzerland, Albania, Denmark, Armenia, Israel, Netherlands, Norway, Latvia and Belgium.
I put Latvia in because Latvia has a universal quality. Estonia out because I think the Netherlands will eat away at their points.
I agree with you, bring back the juries in the semis, it will help with the quality of the songs.
I also predict Ukraine to win. General appeal to both juries and public when it comes to the type of song. Plus the song has a message of hope that people are yearning for in these complicated times.
I am so passionate about it and also curious. So lets see how it will end up after all! ❤️
This is fantastic! Great analysis
Thank you ❤️
Thank you for the excellent analysis based in statistics....
Lets see what happens on the stage that night ...
Till then we enjoy the beautiful travel and camva of all songs!!!!!
Much love from the county that creatived a awesome chaos this year that symbolize all the mixe and culture between us😅❤
Greetings from Greece❤🎉🎉
❤️❤️❤️🙏
dankeschön...jetzt kannste deine glaskugel wieder einpacken :)
I can't imagine Spain not giving any points to Greece, its very Mediterranean, Rosalia-like song. I think they will give it at least 8 points. Same for Malta
I cannot imagine many things comes from data, thats why I am curious. This year is very different than previous ones. So lets see if data can tell us something or would be more relevant to wait few years with just public voting.
My prediction:
Austria. ✅
Malta. ❌
Switzerland. ✅
Greece. ✅
Czechia. ❌
Albania. ✅
Denmark. ❌
Armenia. ✅
Israel. ✅
Estonia. ✅
Georgia. ✅
Netherlands. ✅
Norway. ✅
Latvia. ❌
San Marino. ❌
Belgium. ❌
Thats it :))
Have to disagree on Belgium
Belgium will be in final!
I think Albania will stay out and Belgium is through.....That's not my wish...I like Albania
Super zaujimave video😊
❤️🙏
Interesting prediction ❤
That was fun!
But 2 notes:
1.France 100% gives 12 points to israel (or 10 at least)
2. 12 and 10 points from israel will go to the Netherlands and greece probably
I believe Israel voters will firstly en mass support countries who openly supports them. But I may be wrong as if not, Netherland is a first choice for sure.
@@JanBors I think this doesn't really work like that with them. They like uptempo fun songs mainly and that is why I think those 2 will get points.
I don't think Israelis will love this year greece entry. They have different taste in music. But maybe I wrong.
@@מירבקורצברג it sounds like israeli pop-mizrahi mainstream music.
Hi Jan. As a DA i also have to do a prediction, 1st just be clear, but will be more ;P Looks kind of similar.
1Switzerland 143
2Netherlands 114
3Norway 113
4Greece 96
5Estonia 93
6Armenia 92
7Israel 87
8Belgium 73
9Latvia 66
10Albania 64
11Denmark 51
12Austria 40
13Georgia 20
14Czechia 18
15San Marino 17
16Malta 15
Todavía hay que escuchar las canciones Live, así que TODO PUEDE CAMBIAR.
I know, but those are statistics talking, not rly my opinion
Cool thing about RoW, only we get to vote in both semifinals. I actually think all countries should be voting in both semi's, it would increase revenue and generate more engagement. Why not?
that would be fun! also much more neighbour voting would bias the whole process. No chance for countries without this advantage.
Norway is the hardest one to predict this year. I can see it flop but also at the same time see this in top 10 in Eurovision. Maybe even shock win?
imo it will go to top10, maybe top5. Win would be a shocky one but why not, the song is amazing
This is so interesting! But also sad that everything has become so predictable 😊
if this is true, we'll find out soon
Malta underrated
As always
Predicting the point from my country🇧🇻:
12. Netherlands 🇳🇱 (sounds like something that is charting in Norway and could be a reaction to the norwegians dislike of the juries)
10: Denmark 🇩🇰 ( is not a lock for 12p, Norway gave them 8p in 2019 and 4p in 2022 and 4p in 2017. But I think this is a better entry, and 7p at least is secured.)
8. Belgium 🇧🇪 it is the better ballad, and it got a great reaction in some ESC facebook groups)
7. Switzerland 🇨🇭 (a quality entry, also being lgbt might help)
6. Estonia 🇪🇪 (a fun song with some traditional elements, our commentator will probably make a funny joke)
5. Latvia (usually not getting points from Norway, we have a huge Lithuanian diaspora, so maybe the baltics are artificially high in your estimations. But i think the televoters will connect with the message of the song.
4. Armenia 🇦🇲 (a fun traditional song, has its audience )
3. Israel 🇮🇱 (remember that you can't vote down song, even if the country is more pro palestinian, the people who support 🇮🇱 will vote for this song.)
2. Austria 🇦🇹 (a fun throwback song, could do much better if they get high points in our preview show Adresse Malmø, I think France got 8p from the Norwegian televote last year because they won the show and a lot of boomers really loved the song. )
1. Albania 🇦🇱 (the last point is just a wild guess, Albania is the most mainstream)
Loved the video btw, great analysis.
🙏🙏🙏
also I would not focus on what fans say, reflection of this is minimal. More people outside the bubble will vote than inside of it
CROATIE winner!!
I'd switch Austria with Greece.
not rly probable, more likely other countries to switch (but why not, lets see)
Yup greece is surely in the final
I agree with Jans on this one. Greece is giving me eaea vibes. I know they're completely different but I can't see the casuals warming to it at all. That said i have it as borderline as opposed to out because diaspora plus fandom could be enough like Serbia 2023.
@@han-oq6bo there are more balkan and Mediterranean countries that can relate to this song than countries that are used to flamenco so I think it's different
This takes as granted that televoters vote worse than the juries. And yet all the recent years we have learned that the juries bombed great entries and the viewers actually made a lot of justice restoring.
for examples juries dont make so often neighbour voting with some exceptions, also juries just logicaly tend to focus on different stuff than public - diaspora votings are the nice examples. You may not agree what juries are voting for. Thats ok. The main point is, that this lost of balance will cause lesser quality songs in future as many of artists / songwriters / producers just stop to being interested in the contest again.
Will you do for semifinal 1??? Please❤❤
hopefully today :)
greece is 7 th in the odds for winning.so ....yes
Instead Austria and Denmark , I see in final San Marino and Georgia.
I am curious if this model is right
Dude Marina is 7 in the odds to win the contest 😂
I did not make up statistics... its not my personal preference video :)
@@JanBors u can’t make statistics based in other years because every year is different and this is really not realistic
@@pickacard4474 but I did, there are patterns of public voting quite clear. Even though it can be still absolutelly different as what I am saying in the video. It can be also just a curiosity. I would be glad if those would not be real and everything is unpredictable.
I'm actually fine with losing Marina in the semifinal. I dislike the song. I do hope your prediction is correct. Brilliant analysis, by the way! I appreciate your bringing reason to a very emotional competition!
@@borutpetrovic7203 Marina is gonna pass in a very high place also
CROatie Winner 2024 !!!
Will all five of the same group qualify: Armenia, Estonia, Greece and Swizerland and The netherlands ? Seems not likely. They are in the same group: funny songs with almost no lyrics.
I am so curious about this
Armenia go🇦🇲💃🏻❤️🔥
Georgia likes rock songs too - they gave their 12 pts to Maneskin the year they won.
I cut off those exceptions or uniques, as they were somewhere else. And also that goes for more other exceptions, f.e. ukraine, or finland last year. Thats why Switzerland receives so many points.
With your reasons malta will never qualify
As I said - if country with such limits like f.e. Malta - its more complicated (without juries) and must rly send exceptional song to be secured. Its pitty but I kinda thing its also a sad fact. Will be much harder for Malta.
Netherlands will give votes to Armenia 100%
you think?
@@JanBors the Netherlands and Belgium almost always give points to Armenia right?
GEORGIA 100% FINAL
!2 points from Georgia will go to Israel 🇮🇱 or Armenia 🇦🇲. 10 points maybe to Greece 🇬🇷.
dont forget we are talkijg about 37 jury panels. Lets say 200 points are needed to reach top5 ... thats not impossible
@@JanBors Good to know. Nutsa is the only reason I am following Eurovision this year. I think you very much underestimating her. Remember Nutsa reached the top 12 on American Idol as a non-American contestant (this was unprecedented), she received standing ovations from Katy Perry, Luke Bryan and Lionel Richie after every live shows. Katy and Brian were screaming "Nuts for Nutsa!" She has amazing vocals, style and she can dance. She is an incredible performer. I do not see how she is not going to be in the final. She can be in the top 5 or win the whole thing if this was not a political contest.
Where is Azerbayjan?
watch the whole video :)
Netherlands and Belgium both 10p to armenia! Diaspora!! See 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, ...
I use only past 5 years
Georgia and Greece in, Denamark, Estonia and Albania out. Armenia, Czechia will fight for one place. Non realistic poor "analysis"
its just data based, but thx for the last compliment :)
No, it isn't data based. Nothing personal, just different approach.
@@contzms2232 its data based. Purely. Its not my wish or personal top.
There are no data here such as Spotify streams, youtube views, various polls, odds etc. These are real data.
@@contzms2232did you watch the video? jesus….
Maybe you love the switzerland song too much, I bet most countries will vote for more eurovisiony songs than that
it is imo very eurovision song...
💙🇮🇱🏆
There is not a single world hit in this year's Eurovision.
In 2021 it was Zitti e buoni.
In 2022 it was a Snap.
In 2023 it was a Tattoo.
and this year (2024) it's no song.
And what is this due to? Well, it's because many more countries have chosen this year to listen to these idiotic fans who want all songs in their native language and all songs to be as alternative and weird as possible. And therefore, no world hits. That's it.
When it comes to your data, I think most of it is realistic. But I think Latvia is completely wrong here. They will get some points from Estonia and then 0 from everyone else! Only my prediction, thats it.
👍
it is all possible, I am just curious! haha. It would be very scary if this will be so accurate
Well as much as Jan and so many of the Fandom hate it I think the most likely one is Dizzy by Olly Alexander. It has support from his fans around the world on his page, someone said they heard it playing in Taco Bell in Tokyo, someone else hears it regularly on the radio in Kazakhstan. I've seen reactions to it from Americans who don't know about Eurovision. As I said, it may be unpopular at Eurovision but in my very humble opinion probably the most world friendly from this year.
if you don't like the Latvian song, shut up and listen to another one, why are you discriminating against the artist? whatever Latvia or Georgia and others send will never be good enough.
@@Criisstinaa I like Georgias song but Latvia is... 💤😵💤😵
@@dobkevskidobke7123everyone has their own taste.
ALBANIA FINAL AND GEORGIA NO?? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
this is just data based, I dont believe that Georgia is not qualifying.
Czechia gives 12p to armenia, see 2007, 2008, 2009, 2015, ...
thats 10 years ago
@@JanBors will be interesting to see, i still think the diaspora will vote!