I can make S2F like model literally out of noise. Let me explain to everybody why S2F seems to work. I have many demonstrations on my website and on my X account. It works because it is the most ridiculous example of correlation is not causation. You don't even need to use S2F. Given the programmatic nature of S2F one can use just issuance. In fact, I can make models that look exactly like the S2F model using issuance alone. Here is the problem. Look at this video: th-cam.com/video/nVk-Um9AnNY/w-d-xo.html What you see is a graph of Price vs Issuance (the # of coins produced per day in this case). The x axis is issuance, the y axis is Price. Each dot a day. Lower values of issuance are on the left. Notice the 4 blobs. These are the 3 cycles + the period before the 1st halving. Notice how in the animation the price goes up, independently of Issuance. We know it is independent first of all by the shape of the blob. It is square indicating no correlation at all. Notice how some of the changes in issuance are by factor of 3 or 4 so even bigger than the change due to the halving. But the price is not affected by these changes. In the animation you see the price moving independently (because the real mechanics is virus like adoption that I already demonstrated in my work) from issuance. It moves left and right, that demonstrates exactly this independence. At the time of the halving there is a sudden jump on the left that is due to the reduction of the reward. Notice how the Price is already where it supposed to be or the top of the first blob. It doesn't jump due to the halving. It is already there. When the issuance shifts on the left simply the data points shift to the left and up. Left because of the drastic reduction of the issuance, up because the price is already there. But our eyes see a shifted blob that follows the price and thinks it is a real correlation! It is like the mathematical equivalent of seeing Jesus on a toast. It is the most embarrassing case of correlation is not causation. When PlanB regress these blobs he gets a very good R^2. That is due to the clustering. I recreated the same behavior with pure random noise, random jumps 2, 3.5, 10.9, 52 no matter what and the correlation is always amazing. It is an artefact! You can then make a model and you will get the staircase behavior that fits almost perfectly the data. Again, an artefact of the construction of the data. It is overfitting on steroid because of the clustering of the data. The problem is that you will need to refit the data at each cycle. That is exactly what PlanB does and everybody is ok with it. But the reason is that is the most fake of all fake models in the history of fake models. I beg you please have somebody with some math and real data analysis experience to look at this thing because it is so crazy that a serious company like Fidelity features this fake model. It is also dangerous because it predicts a 10x change in price at each cycle but this is all based on a literally fake model that can be reproduced by noise.
I'm new to investing, and I've lost a good sum trying out strategies I found in online tutorials. I would sincerely appreciate any recommendations you have.
The first step to successful investment is figuring your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional but it's very advisable you make use of professional
Biggest lesson i learnt in 2024 in the Bitcoin’ market is that nobody knows what is going to happen next, so practice some humility and follow a strategy with a long term edge.
Nobody knows anything; You need to create your own process, manage risk, and stick to the plan, through thick or thin, While also continuously learning from mistakes and improving.
Uncertainty... it took me 3 years to stop trying to predict what bout to happen in market based on charts studying, cause you never know. not having a mentor cost me 3 years of pain I learn to go we’re the market is wanting to go and keep it simple with discipline.
@@hasede-lg9hj I really acknowledge your comment, i have been trading stocks for a while now but i have not been able to make much. how do you achieve this feat?
What a great and constructive discussion !! I follow Plan B and Mark for more than 4 years now and will now follow Chris as well. This trio should come together more often
So glad I found this video - the charts are amazing and the conversation was very engaging - I hope you guys can do a follow-up some time in the future, maybe a year from now.
Gold, BTC, quality global stocks, yes, however not property, if the U.S. dollar gets hyperinflation everything becomes worthless in that country, only global assets survive. Yes assets will go up against the U.S. dollar, however the U.S. dollar would become worthless compared to other currencies or global assets. As for property in the U.S, property is a national fiat asset, it would go up in value against the U.S. dollar, however not in other currencies or global assets. .. Anyone feeling the impact of these economic shifts should consider Crypto long-term trading strategies to protect their assets. My advice to anyone feeling the heat in this inflation, just trade long term more than ever, I have made over 520k from day trading with Aldona Šabanienė in few weeks, this is one of the best medium to backup your assets incase it goes bearish..
Thank you, I can't tell you how grateful I am to you for sharing your insightful. Sadly, too many people are going to get hurt because they failed to educate themselves on this subject.
The process of trading can be complicated when you have limited knowledge. However, with the right strategy and setups, you can be successful. That's the whole point of investing.
Yes, Chris is right... with regards to "S Curve", "Power Law", "Metcafe's Law" - I dont agree with diminishing returns. Some cycle if not this, the next or the next could give crazy returns
I think all you need is an expert assigned by a brokerage company that will trade for you and handle your capital professionally and give you weekly returns of investment without any extra fees attached.
Yeah, I believe investing with a professional is the optimal approach, as it mitigates the risk of significant losses. Did you truly know her? I was under the impression that I was the sole beneficiary of her guidance through the challenges of trading.
Seeing a remark regarding my manager Evelyn Turner is quite energizing. It was just like this when I first met her a few weeks ago. Having started with just 4k about 2-3 weeks ago, I have already made it to 21 k. She is very remarkable!
Goodness gracious I'm so excited seeing Ms. Evelyn Turner been mentioned here also. Didn't know she has been good to other people too, this is wonderful because I also started with a TH-cam referral like this
Thanks for the breakdown! 🤔 I have a quick question: 🤷♂️ I only have these words 🤔. (behave today finger ski upon boy assault summer exhaust beauty stereo over). I’d be grateful for some help. 🙌
Everyone who invests in Bitcoin wants to win money. But they can only get what other fools pay for it. I see the number of fools are running out sooner than later.
Stock to Flow is an illusion. I cannot believe you invited basically a scammer. And I'm very serious about that. The model is a mathematically illusion. I crated S2F models using noise, Soccer World Cup soccer prizes (that happen every 4 years). You can use fake issuance to create a S2F looking model with random noise and random jump, random amount of halving, random dates and it follows the price. You can use a fake price with no bubbles and real issuance and do the same. People still believe this terrible model and this horrible fairy tale that scarcity drives price. Not sure why lies about Bitcoin need to be spread around. It is really really terrible.
Unfortunately Plan B is not respected by the Bitcoin or Crypto community anymore outside of his own botted followers. Lynn Alden would have been a much better person to talk to and doesn't shill ref links to leverage trading websites for kickbacks like Plan B does from his twitter. Stock to flow was a laughing stock for the last few cycles, I guess he redrew all the lines again?
I know, I know... but I started investing in 2017 so I only experienced 1 full cycle so far (ok, almost 2). A few just sounded a little bit too much for me. But I did not want to question you or anything. But I think PlanB's rule when to buy and sell are still helpful. And no one knows at what figure it will top out this time. Have a nice one
![In Gold We Trust [EN]](http://yt3.ggpht.com/WUh4FaSplBb1oxR8tOg_PpeUIzsSTGdbuyL8B3PBJ5wl9BF98r4u92kKFX_fK1U4XrXPrLQhS_s=s48-c-k-c0x00ffffff-no-rj)
Mark, Chris, thanks for a great chat!
🎉🎉🎉🎉🎉 Plan B thanks for your job
Thank you as well for all your helpful work
This is a bot
Whats up with September Update?
I can make S2F like model literally out of noise.
Let me explain to everybody why S2F seems to work.
I have many demonstrations on my website and on my X account.
It works because it is the most ridiculous example of correlation is not causation.
You don't even need to use S2F. Given the programmatic nature of S2F one can use just issuance. In fact, I can make models that look exactly like the S2F model using issuance alone.
Here is the problem.
Look at this video: th-cam.com/video/nVk-Um9AnNY/w-d-xo.html
What you see is a graph of Price vs Issuance (the # of coins produced per day in this case).
The x axis is issuance, the y axis is Price. Each dot a day.
Lower values of issuance are on the left.
Notice the 4 blobs. These are the 3 cycles + the period before the 1st halving.
Notice how in the animation the price goes up, independently of Issuance. We know it is independent first of all by the shape of the blob. It is square indicating no correlation at all. Notice how some of the changes in issuance are by factor of 3 or 4 so even bigger than the change due to the halving. But the price is not affected by these changes.
In the animation you see the price moving independently (because the real mechanics is virus like adoption that I already demonstrated in my work) from issuance. It moves left and right, that demonstrates exactly this independence.
At the time of the halving there is a sudden jump on the left that is due to the reduction of the reward. Notice how the Price is already where it supposed to be or the top of the first blob. It doesn't jump due to the halving. It is already there.
When the issuance shifts on the left simply the data points shift to the left and up. Left because of the drastic reduction of the issuance, up because the price is already there.
But our eyes see a shifted blob that follows the price and thinks it is a real correlation!
It is like the mathematical equivalent of seeing Jesus on a toast.
It is the most embarrassing case of correlation is not causation.
When PlanB regress these blobs he gets a very good R^2. That is due to the clustering. I recreated the same behavior with pure random noise, random jumps 2, 3.5, 10.9, 52 no matter what and the correlation is always amazing. It is an artefact!
You can then make a model and you will get the staircase behavior that fits almost perfectly the data.
Again, an artefact of the construction of the data. It is overfitting on steroid because of the clustering of the data.
The problem is that you will need to refit the data at each cycle. That is exactly what PlanB does and everybody is ok with it. But the reason is that is the most fake of all fake models in the history of fake models. I beg you please have somebody with some math and real data analysis experience to look at this thing because it is so crazy that a serious company like Fidelity features this fake model.
It is also dangerous because it predicts a 10x change in price at each cycle but this is all based on a literally fake model that can be reproduced by noise.
I'm new to investing, and I've lost a good sum trying out strategies I found in online tutorials. I would sincerely appreciate any recommendations you have.
As a beginner, it's essential for you to have a pro or a very good trader to keep you accountable.
If you can, then get a professional to trade for you I think that way your assets are more secure.
Someone like expert Lori Barr
The first step to successful investment is figuring your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional but it's very advisable you make use of professional
This is correct, Lori strategy has normalized winning trades for me also and it's a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started
Biggest lesson i learnt in 2024 in the Bitcoin’ market is that nobody knows what is going to happen next, so practice some humility and follow a strategy with a long term edge.
Nobody knows anything; You need to create your own process, manage risk, and stick to the plan, through thick or thin, While also continuously learning from mistakes and improving.
Uncertainty... it took me 3 years to stop trying to predict what bout to happen in market based on charts studying, cause you never know. not having a mentor cost me 3 years of pain I learn to go we’re the market is wanting to go and keep it simple with discipline.
@@hasede-lg9hj I really acknowledge your comment, i have been trading stocks for a while now but i have not been able to make much. how do you achieve this feat?
I really acknowledge your comment, i have been trading stocks for a while now but i have not been able to make much. how do you achieve this feat?
Her name is.Annette Marie Holt . Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
What a great and constructive discussion !! I follow Plan B and Mark for more than 4 years now and will now follow Chris as well.
This trio should come together more often
Plan B Number One 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀
He is pushing a fake model.
So glad I found this video - the charts are amazing and the conversation was very engaging - I hope you guys can do a follow-up some time in the future, maybe a year from now.
Gold, BTC, quality global stocks, yes, however not property, if the U.S. dollar gets hyperinflation everything becomes worthless in that country, only global assets survive. Yes assets will go up against the U.S. dollar, however the U.S. dollar would become worthless compared to other currencies or global assets. As for property in the U.S, property is a national fiat asset, it would go up in value against the U.S. dollar, however not in other currencies or global assets. .. Anyone feeling the impact of these economic shifts should consider Crypto long-term trading strategies to protect their assets. My advice to anyone feeling the heat in this inflation, just trade long term more than ever, I have made over 520k from day trading with Aldona Šabanienė in few weeks, this is one of the best medium to backup your assets incase it goes bearish..
Aldona Šabanienė program is widely available online..
Thank you, I can't tell you how grateful I am to you for sharing your insightful. Sadly, too many people are going to get hurt because they failed to educate themselves on this subject.
The market has gone berserk! whether you're a newbie or a veteran trader, everyone needs a sort of coach at some point to thrive forward.
Nice info, i appreciate your concern this will help a lot especially to the young investors who have no or lesser knowledge on how the market works.
The process of trading can be complicated when you have limited knowledge. However, with the right strategy and setups, you can be successful. That's the whole point of investing.
Thank you Mark, Chris and Mr. B! : )
Yes, Chris is right... with regards to "S Curve", "Power Law", "Metcafe's Law" - I dont agree with diminishing returns. Some cycle if not this, the next or the next could give crazy returns
Great talk. Thank you very much, Gentlemen.
Brilliant, very informative video, good for educating
Definitely looking forward to the next 😎
Thank you
Plan B best Man!
Diminishing returns are a deep property of Bitcoin. You guys talk about stuff you didn't study at all.
Plan B!!
Great interview !
I've learned a lot about cryptocurrency advancements and want to get involved. I'm hoping to find a good mentor
I think all you need is an expert assigned by a brokerage company that will trade for you and handle your capital professionally and give you weekly returns of investment without any extra fees attached.
Evelyn Turner is the professional that guides me and her optimal returns are really impressive
Yeah, I believe investing with a professional is the optimal approach, as it mitigates the risk of significant losses. Did you truly know her? I was under the impression that I was the sole beneficiary of her guidance through the challenges of trading.
Seeing a remark regarding my manager Evelyn Turner is quite energizing. It was just like this when I first met her a few weeks ago. Having started with just 4k about 2-3 weeks ago, I have already made it to 21 k. She is very remarkable!
Goodness gracious I'm so excited seeing Ms. Evelyn Turner been mentioned here also. Didn't know she has been good to other people too, this is wonderful because I also started with a TH-cam referral like this
So many people misunderstand Bitcoin's volatility! Isn't it just a sign of its potential for massive returns? 🤔💰
sounds like Schwarzenegger
Thanks for the breakdown! 🤔 I have a quick question: 🤷♂️ I only have these words 🤔. (behave today finger ski upon boy assault summer exhaust beauty stereo over). I’d be grateful for some help. 🙌
Michael Schumacher's mouth and chin
Gresham’s law. Bad money drives out the good. There is no chance that anyone with IQ over 80 ever chooses to use BTC as currency. Why, why, why ????
Everyone who invests in Bitcoin wants to win money. But they can only get what other fools pay for it. I see the number of fools are running out sooner than later.
Bitcoin is as scare as my shit. 😅
👍👍
Stock to Flow is an illusion. I cannot believe you invited basically a scammer. And I'm very serious about that.
The model is a mathematically illusion. I crated S2F models using noise, Soccer World Cup soccer prizes (that happen every 4 years).
You can use fake issuance to create a S2F looking model with random noise and random jump, random amount of halving, random dates and it follows the price. You can use a fake price with no bubbles and real issuance and do the same.
People still believe this terrible model and this horrible fairy tale that scarcity drives price.
Not sure why lies about Bitcoin need to be spread around. It is really really terrible.
Unfortunately Plan B is not respected by the Bitcoin or Crypto community anymore outside of his own botted followers. Lynn Alden would have been a much better person to talk to and doesn't shill ref links to leverage trading websites for kickbacks like Plan B does from his twitter.
Stock to flow was a laughing stock for the last few cycles, I guess he redrew all the lines again?
Last few cycles? How many cycles are you investing in Bitcoin?
@@TheWeltwoche it was born in 2009 homie. There’s been a few already.
I know, I know... but I started investing in 2017 so I only experienced 1 full cycle so far (ok, almost 2). A few just sounded a little bit too much for me. But I did not want to question you or anything. But I think PlanB's rule when to buy and sell are still helpful. And no one knows at what figure it will top out this time. Have a nice one
Plan B claimed BTC was gonna reach $532k in 2025. What a dummy!
We will see... until now his model was quite reliable! And even if it was not, absolutely no reason to insult someone. Just my humble opinion
@@TheWeltwoche No reason to scam people & mock their intelligence, as well as drag masses towards the edge of a cliff…
It's not 2025 yet so how can we judge?
@@issenvan1050 No coiner?
this dude is a time traveler, he knows that plan b is wrong.
PlanB predicted 288k in 2021 in the same model. Total scammer.
Yes, but we had covid, the China mining ban, Luna, FTX, Celsius, Blockfi, 3 Arrows Capital & Voyager scams!!!
That was different model.
@@Eonwe No it wasn't. He said multiple times that 250k was "guaranteed" based on "everything he knows". He's a total fraud.
Yes. Before all your cousins and uncles started scamming people with their exchanges.
Making an inaccurate prediction isn’t being a scammer. He has made more of an impact on this world than you and your entire family. Humble yourself.
I didn't know Vincent Cassel is into bitcoin