Great analysis of the MLS data. One thing you might want to look into is the health of markets where many SW Florida buyers come from (e.g. Michigan, IL, OH, Ind; and now NY and Calif.) I'm a 70 yr old Sarasota native and over many years, we've seen when the people in Northern states have a hard time selling that home, it slows down or stops them from buying in Florida. A few years ago, I heard one economist look at the real estate health in certain South American counties and how that impacts sales in the Miami-Dade area. Those real estate markets can be the "canary in the mine" to give us earlier warning of where the Florida market is going.
There is way more inventory out there than is being reported. In Cape Coral builders have groups of construction workers living in houses( some of them are not even completed). One huge house on a canal has a several men living there and the garage is full construction supplies. Everything from paint, stucco, appliances, tools. But when you look up the address it’s listed as pre construction and the picture show just the lot.
I just read another you tube blog bty a Sarasota realtor who was touting all the free perks being offered by Sarasota area builders like Neal such as free pools. This reinforces Ben's details about the market softening. When the market is great and buyers are plentiful there is no need for incentives to buy.
Great video as usual. Is it possible to show the change from the peak of 2022? I think it is one of the critical data points in addition to the YoY change. Thank you!
Thanks for another intelligent interpretation of the data, but what you left out is any pending change due the realtor commission structure. We keep hearing how the housing market is going to tank, and yet it has not happened.
You know, great point. I have been looking for a measurable change in pending sales and have not seen it yet. Only 2 weeks in really here, but I also think that its going to be a scapegoat excuse for home sellers in the near future. Anything but price.
There was a lot of inventory at the begining of this year in Charlotte county. There were March, April & May good selling months. Now there is good inventory but not atractive properties. I know is the slow season but it looks like a lot of sellers are waiting for the high season assuming that lots of buyers will come to buy.
Hey Ben, as always, I appreciate the data. As I noted last month, the Collier County data from the FAR is so far off from the SW FL MLS, I will seek answers from the Naples Area Board of Realtors. I live and breathe this market daily and there's no way Naples is worse than Fort Myers and Cape Coral. I certainly don't blame you as I just pulled up the FAR data that matches your stats. However, the SWFL MLS shows only 2,242 SF homes on the market, not 4,516. I subscribe to Lance Lambert's ResiClub site. His data is consistent w the lower figure.
You have to remember the new home communities dont have to list their inventory in the SWFL MLS. They can be sitting on hundreds of homes not in the MLS. Drive down Coller BLVD and see the 4,000 new home sites in construction go east on Immokalee. Trust me it's not as bad as Fort Myers or Cape but it is headed there.
@@jamesclark7316 Thanks for the feedback. I have also been in Collier for a long time(1988).I understand your comment that hundreds of developer homes are missing from the MLS. However, I just pulled all active listings on the MLS in Collier. The figure is 4,676. Ben's figures from the FAR site for July was 9,458. That's a total disconnect from what I hearing from my contacts at the National HB's and the local and regional builders. Slowly, yes, Falling off a cliff, no. Also the FAR figures have 1,200+ pendings for Collier. That's way too high. I agree the prices in Collier move lower. My house in The Moorings is off 20%, but I just want to square the figures.
Rates are coming down Suncoast Credit Union offered me 5.00% on a cash out refi today in Collier county. I know it still seems high but maybe it will help those of us that work for a living and live here. 🤷♂
Nice review thanks. I find cash sales stats for condos most interesting. Even when cash buying a condo, doesn’t the Condo Association/HOA still require homeowners insurance and/or flood insurance?
It depends. Associations can cover those cost under master policies and homeowners can opt to get thier own coverage as well. It all comes down to what the association by-laws state and who is responsible for what.
As someone who has lived in Collier County for 25 years and active in real estate. You are 100% correct on what is happening here. Yes we are a unique market but we always follow Lee county in numbers. Collier countys median price is always higher due to the area but rest assured they are tied together like the Nasdaq and DOW are. If one falls so does the other. There are so many new communities that are in full steam ahead building its insane. I toured 2 this weekend. One has slashed new home prices by 100K on a 800K new home plus they said "make us an offer" this was a MAJOR developer. In addition some are offering an entire house full of furniture, golf cart, HOA fees paid for a year. Closing costs even if you DONT use their preferred lender or pay cash. It's night and day from the covid years. Thats every developer Lennar, Matamay, Divosta/Pulte. Neal. I was floored at the deals to move these inventory homes in every price point from condos to single family. Ben is RIGHT ON THE MONEY about Collier County. It will be a blood bath when its done
Excellent info. I am seeing the same thing from builders up my way as well. We had one drop 200k on 900k homes recently for quick move ins and I was floored. Big time developer like you mentioned. Very interesting.
Very interesting. I live in Naples for 7 years left a few years ago as the massive development and over development was just beginning. Immokalee Road was becoming a parking lot even out of season- and the county said it was "destined to fail" yet over development down Immokalee going towards Ave Maria continued starting with the sale of the fruit tree farm corner of Immokalee and Collier which is now a shopping center. I would think that perks such as no HOA fees for a year, golf carts or furnishing will put pressure on the existing communities which have "turned over" to residents. In addition with the insurance crisis and carriers requiring newer roofs to insure homes, a home with a new roof is very appealing. Roofs in Naples are very expensive. The allure of low HOA fees when the developers are running the community are appealing. When we moved to a community in Naples in 2013, the fees were very low. The community was still not all sold out so that the developer offered $10 weekly delicious dinners- of course subsidized by them to make people think that this was going to last forever. Once the community turned over, no more $10 dinners and fees rose when the developer stopped subsidizing. As time went on new developments with fancier amenities were being built and the community we lived in decided that they needed to "keep up" to remain competitive. They first had one need one enhancement- meaning special assessment to residents then a few years later a second MAJOR multi million 8 figure project which wound up starting at one price point and then going significantly over budget meaning higher loans and higher HOA fees to cover the project. This was in an effort to keep up with the newer communities which had developer paid for amenities. That meant MAJOR hikes in the HOA fees- and many residents including us decided to leave. With all the over development, I suspect that prices overall will fall- if there is a larger supply then pricing will fall as the pool of prospects have much more to select from.
@@susan-e2y I agree! I lived on Immokalee road in Ibis Cove in 2002 and there was nothing but orange groves towards the only neighborhood out there Water Ways of Naples. Now it's insane. I now live in Treviso Bay and if you drive down Collier the opposite direction towards Marco All of Collier Blvd has been bulldozed in the past 6-9 months there are NO preserves left. It is one gigantic community after the other turn left on 41 towards Miami and there are many new neighborhoods that were literally swamp land years ago including new Publix etc. You have lived here long enough to know if Publix is building new stores they know they will have the traffic. Pretty soon east Naples will be west Miami/Lauderdale.
Here in Jax, I have homes around me that have been sitting on the market for over 4 months with periodic price drops. 2 homes going on a year on the market🫣
Is the MLS accounting for all the contracts that were backed out of are they adding them in? July alone was 60,000 people backing out of their contracts.
I'm gonna guess most condo sales are new units or ones that are only a couple of years old and don't have to deal with the new laws. Also guessing there's no way to sort that in the NAR data. Second, whether it's SFR or condo, prices need to fall another 25 to 50% before most people will buy. With inflation and high interest rates, people just don't have the money to buy at today's prices
I can only speak age wise to my area but most of the sales are units 20-40 years old. We don't really have many new built condos in the area. Price and location are big factors as well as monthly HOA.
@@chickengod9184 I like Waterside. But it's becoming a little pricey. Even a 2,000 sf SFH with a lake view is pushing $1M so I may have to look elsewhere.
@@rrcbiker I don't know of a lot of lakes around sarasota. But you can find a three-bedroom two-bath house that's about 1500 square feet for a little less than 600 in a good location. But I would definitely stay away from any types of rivers or tributaries because that's where the flooding could come from of course
The problem today is that realtors read the data but they are like everybody else lost about what will happen with the prices especially now that lowering 25 points of interest rates will change the market. I don’t think so!
Today video didn’t add anything interesting but a lot of uncertainty. If you planning to follow the data to create a narrative means that you are not in the ground getting inside or privilege information!😊
Florida showing *PERFECT* discipline in demanding...and getting ... much higher building standards to a still raging Condo Mania. No *WAY* to spin that as a negative having this much quality product *VERY HIGH QUALITY PRODUCT BEST EVER IN FLORIDA HISTORY* so anyone complaining about "too much quality product out there ewww bad" really need to try a new reality in Life.... preferably in Bangladesh or Sao Paulo! People literally *DIE* to live in a place like Florida and of course all over elsewhere USA. Long $rklb strong buy do i have to say to people of Florida rocket launch is not a thing? No way do i nor anyone else. Long $kmi kinder morgan energy strong buy. *BRUTAL* time still for trying to create an income as the US Fed prepares to start telling savers to drop dead again. Long short dated US Treasuries strong buy. *"whatever it takes"* hustle hustle hustle time.😊😊😊
I'm readind and hearing 80%+ Condos are worthless or obsolete and that's not just older builds. Train wreck due to climate change, insurance, etc... Houses next???
only old buildings on the coast are in danger. these older buildings where middle class retirement dream. ghe newer buildings are owned by rich dudes and have no problem footing the bill. inner land condos like mine are not really affected
![[LIVE] : ONE ลุมพินี 86 | คู่เอก "คมเพชร vs ชาติพยัคฆ์"](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/m3q_dRYDuU8/mqdefault.jpg)
I look for your video’s as the are always filled with very useful data. Thank you!
Great analysis of the MLS data. One thing you might want to look into is the health of markets where many SW Florida buyers come from (e.g. Michigan, IL, OH, Ind; and now NY and Calif.) I'm a 70 yr old Sarasota native and over many years, we've seen when the people in Northern states have a hard time selling that home, it slows down or stops them from buying in Florida. A few years ago, I heard one economist look at the real estate health in certain South American counties and how that impacts sales in the Miami-Dade area. Those real estate markets can be the "canary in the mine" to give us earlier warning of where the Florida market is going.
There is way more inventory out there than is being reported. In Cape Coral builders have groups of construction workers living in houses( some of them are not even completed). One huge house on a canal has a several men living there and the garage is full construction supplies. Everything from paint, stucco, appliances, tools. But when you look up the address it’s listed as pre construction and the picture show just the lot.
And the hits just keep on coming!
I just read another you tube blog bty a Sarasota realtor who was touting all the free perks being offered by Sarasota area builders like Neal such as free pools. This reinforces Ben's details about the market softening. When the market is great and buyers are plentiful there is no need for incentives to buy.
I enjoy watching your videos, thank you!
Like you said, the people who bought in 22 are going to get hit the hardest. I'm seeing condos in Tampa even taking a hit
Condos are so tough right now
Great video as usual. Is it possible to show the change from the peak of 2022? I think it is one of the critical data points in addition to the YoY change. Thank you!
Great report Ben, thank you👍👍👍👍
Thanks for another intelligent interpretation of the data, but what you left out is any pending change due the realtor commission structure. We keep hearing how the housing market is going to tank, and yet it has not happened.
You know, great point. I have been looking for a measurable change in pending sales and have not seen it yet. Only 2 weeks in really here, but I also think that its going to be a scapegoat excuse for home sellers in the near future. Anything but price.
There was a lot of inventory at the begining of this year in Charlotte county. There were March, April & May good selling months. Now there is good inventory but not atractive properties. I know is the slow season but it looks like a lot of sellers are waiting for the high season assuming that lots of buyers will come to buy.
PLEASE cover Northeast Florida next time 🙏
He did at the 19 minute mark.
Great video Ben. You have taken some abuse over the months for the "Truth as You See It"
20% down in price is a Crash.
Hey Ben, as always, I appreciate the data. As I noted last month, the Collier County data from the FAR is so far off from the SW FL MLS, I will seek answers from the Naples Area Board of Realtors. I live and breathe this market daily and there's no way Naples is worse than Fort Myers and Cape Coral. I certainly don't blame you as I just pulled up the FAR data that matches your stats. However, the SWFL MLS shows only 2,242 SF homes on the market, not 4,516. I subscribe to Lance Lambert's ResiClub site. His data is consistent w the lower figure.
You have to remember the new home communities dont have to list their inventory in the SWFL MLS. They can be sitting on hundreds of homes not in the MLS. Drive down Coller BLVD and see the 4,000 new home sites in construction go east on Immokalee. Trust me it's not as bad as Fort Myers or Cape but it is headed there.
@@jamesclark7316 Thanks for the feedback. I have also been in Collier for a long time(1988).I understand your comment that hundreds of developer homes are missing from the MLS. However, I just pulled all active listings on the MLS in Collier. The figure is 4,676. Ben's figures from the FAR site for July was 9,458. That's a total disconnect from what I hearing from my contacts at the National HB's and the local and regional builders. Slowly, yes, Falling off a cliff, no. Also the FAR figures have 1,200+ pendings for Collier. That's way too high. I agree the prices in Collier move lower. My house in The Moorings is off 20%, but I just want to square the figures.
Rates are coming down Suncoast Credit Union offered me 5.00% on a cash out refi today in Collier county. I know it still seems high but maybe it will help those of us that work for a living and live here. 🤷♂
Nice review thanks. I find cash sales stats for condos most interesting. Even when cash buying a condo, doesn’t the Condo Association/HOA still require homeowners insurance and/or flood insurance?
It depends. Associations can cover those cost under master policies and homeowners can opt to get thier own coverage as well. It all comes down to what the association by-laws state and who is responsible for what.
Another Great Video. So helpful. Thank you!
love the videos
I’d like to learn more about the new realtor situation… no longer a sellers agent? Do I have that right? I can research but would like a head start
As someone who has lived in Collier County for 25 years and active in real estate. You are 100% correct on what is happening here. Yes we are a unique market but we always follow Lee county in numbers. Collier countys median price is always higher due to the area but rest assured they are tied together like the Nasdaq and DOW are. If one falls so does the other. There are so many new communities that are in full steam ahead building its insane. I toured 2 this weekend. One has slashed new home prices by 100K on a 800K new home plus they said "make us an offer" this was a MAJOR developer. In addition some are offering an entire house full of furniture, golf cart, HOA fees paid for a year. Closing costs even if you DONT use their preferred lender or pay cash. It's night and day from the covid years. Thats every developer Lennar, Matamay, Divosta/Pulte. Neal. I was floored at the deals to move these inventory homes in every price point from condos to single family. Ben is RIGHT ON THE MONEY about Collier County. It will be a blood bath when its done
Excellent info. I am seeing the same thing from builders up my way as well. We had one drop 200k on 900k homes recently for quick move ins and I was floored. Big time developer like you mentioned. Very interesting.
Very interesting. I live in Naples for 7 years left a few years ago as the massive development and over development was just beginning. Immokalee Road was becoming a parking lot even out of season- and the county said it was "destined to fail" yet over development down Immokalee going towards Ave Maria continued starting with the sale of the fruit tree farm corner of Immokalee and Collier which is now a shopping center. I would think that perks such as no HOA fees for a year, golf carts or furnishing will put pressure on the existing communities which have "turned over" to residents. In addition with the insurance crisis and carriers requiring newer roofs to insure homes, a home with a new roof is very appealing. Roofs in Naples are very expensive. The allure of low HOA fees when the developers are running the community are appealing. When we moved to a community in Naples in 2013, the fees were very low. The community was still not all sold out so that the developer offered $10 weekly delicious dinners- of course subsidized by them to make people think that this was going to last forever. Once the community turned over, no more $10 dinners and fees rose when the developer stopped subsidizing. As time went on new developments with fancier amenities were being built and the community we lived in decided that they needed to "keep up" to remain competitive. They first had one need one enhancement- meaning special assessment to residents then a few years later a second MAJOR multi million 8 figure project which wound up starting at one price point and then going significantly over budget meaning higher loans and higher HOA fees to cover the project. This was in an effort to keep up with the newer communities which had developer paid for amenities. That meant MAJOR hikes in the HOA fees- and many residents including us decided to leave. With all the over development, I suspect that prices overall will fall- if there is a larger supply then pricing will fall as the pool of prospects have much more to select from.
@@susan-e2y I agree! I lived on Immokalee road in Ibis Cove in 2002 and there was nothing but orange groves towards the only neighborhood out there Water Ways of Naples. Now it's insane. I now live in Treviso Bay and if you drive down Collier the opposite direction towards Marco All of Collier Blvd has been bulldozed in the past 6-9 months there are NO preserves left. It is one gigantic community after the other turn left on 41 towards Miami and there are many new neighborhoods that were literally swamp land years ago including new Publix etc. You have lived here long enough to know if Publix is building new stores they know they will have the traffic. Pretty soon east Naples will be west Miami/Lauderdale.
Here in Jax, I have homes around me that have been sitting on the market for over 4 months with periodic price drops. 2 homes going on a year on the market🫣
Very interesting. That is how our slowdown started in the SW region.
Im in jax I have seen the same. Houses sitting for months at a time with thousands of dollars in price drops.
People are broke. No money
Ty
Does the NAR provide information about price cuts by any chance?
North port drags Sarasota numbers down. If they were pulled out what would Sarasota's numbers look like
we are takeing a beating in naples on sales
Is the MLS accounting for all the contracts that were backed out of are they adding them in? July alone was 60,000 people backing out of their contracts.
Interesting!
If a home contract is canclled it should be put back on the market and revert to an active listing. So yes I believe they are.
Ben is Miami metropolitan high end luxury single family homes in a buyer's market?
It’s a different tale on the Atlantic side. We don’t have as much inventory in se Florida
You certainly do not at this time. Still to little supply for the demand.
I'm gonna guess most condo sales are new units or ones that are only a couple of years old and don't have to deal with the new laws. Also guessing there's no way to sort that in the NAR data. Second, whether it's SFR or condo, prices need to fall another 25 to 50% before most people will buy. With inflation and high interest rates, people just don't have the money to buy at today's prices
I can only speak age wise to my area but most of the sales are units 20-40 years old. We don't really have many new built condos in the area. Price and location are big factors as well as monthly HOA.
I hope youre right, in boca it is no longer climbing currently atleast
What program do you use to record screen and yourself? Thank you.
I use OBS Studio.
How do you like the Port Charolette area?
How many total CONDOS are for sale in Lee County and more specifically Ft. Myers/Cape Coral? Thank you
320000
Don't move to Lee County. You'll regret it. Trust me. I sold in June....just to get the hell outta there.
@@Markham12thcentury Why? What’s the problem there?
@@johnkatrich2954traffic is absolutely horrendous, and terrible water quality.
@@johnkatrich2954 Lee County. In two words, THAT'S the problem.
The flippers, speculators and short term rental slum lords are all holding bags and want to sell them.
So those are normal price increases but on the 40% rise in values during 2021 to 2022???
Very true
Charlotte County might crash the hardest in the state of the Florida
Please cover Sarasota county. I'm interested in moving to either Sarasota, Nokomis, or Venice.😊
Go to Sarasota if you can afford it. It's the best investment and safest from the storms.
@@chickengod9184 I like Waterside. But it's becoming a little pricey. Even a 2,000 sf SFH with a lake view is pushing $1M so I may have to look elsewhere.
@@rrcbiker I don't know of a lot of lakes around sarasota. But you can find a three-bedroom two-bath house that's about 1500 square feet for a little less than 600 in a good location. But I would definitely stay away from any types of rivers or tributaries because that's where the flooding could come from of course
I have a 4/3 in LWR 2,340 sq ft 3 car garage at $659k.
@@bambricksellsflorida that's great if someone wants to live an hour from the beach then you are the guy
Oh, yeah...it's crashing in Lee county!
The problem today is that realtors read the data but they are like everybody else lost about what will happen with the prices especially now that lowering 25 points of interest rates will change the market. I don’t think so!
Rename it FLEE County
That is pretty good
I ❤ watching florida woes
Because realtors don’t know what they are going to do next. Every day there are cutting more in their commissions!
Dude im telling you now to sell your extra properties before you get absolutely wrecked
Today video didn’t add anything interesting but a lot of uncertainty. If you planning to follow the data to create a narrative means that you are not in the ground getting inside or privilege information!😊
Florida showing *PERFECT* discipline in demanding...and getting ... much higher building standards to a still raging Condo Mania. No *WAY* to spin that as a negative having this much quality product *VERY HIGH QUALITY PRODUCT BEST EVER IN FLORIDA HISTORY* so anyone complaining about "too much quality product out there ewww bad" really need to try a new reality in Life.... preferably in Bangladesh or Sao Paulo! People literally *DIE* to live in a place like Florida and of course all over elsewhere USA. Long $rklb strong buy do i have to say to people of Florida rocket launch is not a thing? No way do i nor anyone else. Long $kmi kinder morgan energy strong buy. *BRUTAL* time still for trying to create an income as the US Fed prepares to start telling savers to drop dead again. Long short dated US Treasuries strong buy. *"whatever it takes"* hustle hustle hustle time.😊😊😊
I'm readind and hearing 80%+ Condos are worthless or obsolete and that's not just older builds. Train wreck due to climate change, insurance, etc... Houses next???
only old buildings on the coast are in danger. these older buildings where middle class retirement dream. ghe newer buildings are owned by rich dudes and have no problem footing the bill. inner land condos like mine are not really affected
Babcock ranch? 🤔
You...I like you
Why are the seller concessions not reflected in the median sales prices ????
Just more trash from realtors struggling to hang onto inflated prices
I agree. And no source data for his "claims".