No crystal balls can tell you if Echo Electric, or the fans of Aptera are right. My money is on Aptera, as it makes so much sense, and covers lots of different bases. I currently drive a Prius and enjoy the ability to drive long distances and not have my wallet hurting from my driving. At 55+ MPG it is ok to visit my son 1000 miles away. But the Aptera will get closer to 330 MPGe, and that makes it a great deal less in cost. The lack of fumes, makes me happy too. Not a huge save the world guy, but I do think removing all those pollutants from the air, might allow many fewer breathing problems. So, environmentalist will love this car, cheapskates will love this car, engineers will see the totality of the features and be excited. Gearheads seeing 0-60 in 4 seconds will be interested, and the campers who don't want to pay for the Motel Six to keep the light on, will flock to the fun machine. CPC wants to see this happen, the ATVM loan should be happening from what I understand they hit all the buttons needed to make it happen. I really think once that loan is granted, the whales will want to show up, and the risk will be pretty much done, that risk will be minimal, and so the fence sitters will want to pile in. My hope is Aptera jacks the price of entry knowing the loan will be enough to get them going and postpones the IPO until such time as they can show a profit, after debt service. Echo Electric makes a few decent points, and funding is the key, Chris and Steve have pushed so hard, that I am positive somehow, they will make this dream come true. The world will be a better place with Aptera on the highways, and byways of the planet. VW Bettles were everywhere in the 1960's, the backseat was a joke, but they were cheap to run, and maintain, not much different than the much more modern Aptera. Hard to tell what the reaction of the consumers will be, but on the road will turn a lot of eyeballs to looking at it. Fleet sales are a very real possibility due to cost of per mile over the lifetime of the car being so very low. If I owned a chain of pizza places, (think uber eats, or Door Dash) what better way to deliver in than an Aptera. NAPA auto parts stores need dealers to get delivery of parts, and again Aptera fits the fleet ideal. Number of units sold I think will be higher than what most expect. Gas at $5/gallon, college kids that want/need transportation, and empty nesters, which is a growing group as less folks have children too. I remember driving before SUV's existed, a station wagon was as big as it got, time for efficiency to meant more in transportation. A recession might in fact help Aptera, as is will be a cheaper, better alternative. If you are still reading thanks for listening to my rant, I believe this is a real game changer, and advancement which needs to happen.
I think the largest issue is that they dont have any on the road right now. Nothing drives interest in vehicles more than seeing them in neghborhoods and highways. The fact that they dont have a full model out touring the country at this time is crazy to me.
Arcimoto has been on the road for a few years, yet the sales for this year will be 250 tops. They were ramping up to sell 50K by 2025. People seeing them on the road doesn't necessarily mean, people will be opening up their wallets. Arcimoto even allows you to rent them in ideal locations as you can get the experience. Yet they never tell what the conversion from renting one and buying one is. So far they have over 900 rentals this year.
@@billsmith5960 Arcimoto is an open air vehicle. Anyo e who thought that would be widely wanted anywhere except a few climates was deluding themselves.
@@yougeo - Getting it on the street was to make people in those areas go bonkers over it and the sales would skyrocket. Yet they are just creeping up. They even did rental and in hopes that would boost sales. Apter is a fair weather vehicle too. It's just that it's enclosed. I want them to prove me wrong by using it here in the NE during the snowy season. I want to see it hold up. I want to see them park it on a city street. I want to see that charging by the solar panels. So far, it's only under ideal conditions. Only snow was a plowed parking lot in Switzerland. If you have ever been there, the roads are pristine and they are over the top when it comes to plowing. Nothing like the US.
I think that is a good point. It is hard to really imagine what a new concept this is until there are a few prototypes actually on the road and being reviewed. I am suspicious because there are so few people who have actually driven the car unsupervised. True, many have been taken for a ride by experienced drivers on specific test streets. This video had hit on many of the weak points, and being an Aptera fan-boy, has taken the more positive outcome. His most valid points are 1). 2 seater cars have sold very poorly, ie Smart for 2 by MB, Fiat 500e, 2). The size of the Aptera may not fit many European streets or single car garages in the US at 89 inches of width. 3). Composite shell body/frame. This is not uncommon in both the boating or race car industry, but the Aptera is a non-gusseted body, much like an egg-shell. Once the crush weight is overcome, it collapses. In Formula 1 racers, the driver is encased in a gusseted life cabin. There is nothing like that in the Aptera which is a one dimensional planar construction. 4) In wheel motors; Elaphe has also made these for the Lordstown Endurance truck. We all know what happened when it entered the Baja race. Aptera will have an even worse ratio of unsprung weight. 5) In- body-cooling. There is not enough surface area on the Aptera to totally cool the motor, air-conditioning, and controller. A ducted radiator could have been designed inside of the rear wheel cowling. One does not want to encase himself in a passenger compartment that is surrounded by heated fluids in case of an accident and breaching of the coolant pathways. That system will also raise the inside cabin temperature. A vehicle that will be sitting in the sun all day with so many windows is a literal greenhouse. Many of us park in the shade or garage to prevent this. Too much electricity will be used just to cool the car enough just to start driving in it. 6). The side windows have too small an area of roll-down window. This prevents it from being used as an escape in event of roll-over position in an accident. The pseudo-window frame if much too restrictive and blocks a critical part of one peripheral view. 7). Aptera had once consulted Sandy Munro to plan a progressive expandable building and construction plan. They will start building a few cars per month and progress to a higher number once the bugs have been worked out. From his boat construction experience, Chris was going to vacuum bag initial body molds by hand. But instead, they have opted for a very expensive full molds and contracts. 8). Like Elio, who made the mistake of trying to build its own motor while boasting of using on shelf parts, Aptera has spent too much in their own solar panels. They should have gone with on the shelf parts. 9). The total payload of 500lbs is going to limit many. Even though the cargo hatch is large, it capacity is limited to 100 lbs after two average size people are in the car. Unlike many other small cars, the Aptera cannot tow a small trailer. 10). Most importantly, because of these faults, outside investors including established car companies have shied away from investing in Aptera. Even the State of California has recently given Ryvid Motors $20 million grant for the motorcycle start-up. Seems odd that another motorcycle unknown has been able to get a grant. But Ryvid has a good startup manufacturing design and plan which could be ramped up as growth demands it. Aptera has a hard uphill road to get to the peak, but once it does, it is downhill and smoother sailing from that point. Aptera has created many of their own problems.
I think that a large niche market for Aptera will be retirees, like me! Aptera is perfect for a retired couple with perhaps a dog or two in the family. The thought of not paying $50 every week for gas is very appealing. By yourself, or just the two of you (with the pups) driving for appointments, shopping, just cruising, etc. Not to mention the fun of quietly blowing past the souped up ICE mobiles at green lights…
I'm retired also and agree with you. I have a 2010 Honda Fit, 4 seats, 4 doors. I'm the only person in it 99% of the time. The rear hatch area is pretty big which is a feature I like. Us first generation boomers are many in number. I think it will sell well in our age group.
You live where fuel is cheap. Here, where diesel costs US$ 5.60 per gallon, it cost me forty bucks just drive my Jetta tdi wagon to the Apple store to get this laptop fixed and then to pick it up after. @@DetroitMicroSound
I went to see the gamma model when it was showcased in San Diego about a month ago, and most of the spectators looking at it were around retirement age. I think you're about right: Retirees and empy-nesters will likely be the largest market. Others will follow, once the vehicle hits the streets and gets seen.
Single person here. Still perfect for me. I've always gotten 4-seaters, as most of my cars have been former state vehicles, though I now drive a prius. As much as I love my prius, I'm just realizing that the 4 extra seats are really a waste. I may have a passenger a handful of times every year. I want an Aptera for the efficiency and the cool look, but I am really looking forward to the trunk space (the prius doesn't have much) and not having 3 extra seats I will never use.
I'm an investor and I'm 50/50 on Aptera's chances at success. Something that surprised me is the seemingly low level of interest in this car. Probably because im a tech nerd I was blown away when I first came across it 3 years ago and wrongly assumed most would be amazed by it as well. That doesnt seem to be the case. I feel like this would be a great second car for someone who needs to run around and get some tasks done.. and a delivery vehicle in some cases as well... auto parts or medical delivery, food delivery type things.
Yup. It would be perfect for many delivery gigs, but most people doing jobs like that would be financially better off buying a used Chevy Bolt instead of a new Aptera.
Low interest is because there is none on the road. Once delivery begins, its unique shape will sell itself. This is why investors like us are anxious for Aptera to start production.
11:00 Re: Engineering Partnerships. To me, Munro Assoc., whose involvement increased success (& investor confidence) by orders of magnitude, is the primary engineering partner, as they helped facilitate integration of CPC & determined the assembly process, along with incorporating their “Lean Design” concepts into all aspects of Aptera. P.S. I’m currently looking for wheel driven trailers which, with 4W differential steering would be able to manage tongue weight, by suppressing porpoising, & snaking from traffic & winds.
After World War Two, the British occupation forces in Germany offered Henry Ford, free and clear, a car factory struggling to build cars in the wreckage of Europe. He thought that their small, cramped, ugly car would be at best a niche vehicle, so he declined to take over the Volkswagenwerk. "I don't think what we're being offered here is worth a damn", he said.
I agree with other posters that people's initial negative "I wouldn't be caught dead" reactions are just a reflex response to such a radical design and some of their preconceived notions. Seeing the vehicles driving around (and riding in/driving one) will change people's minds pretty quickly--just like with Teslas. As soon as my Mom drove my Model 3, she said, "Oh my God, I had no idea. I thought it was just a toy. How do I get one?"
A side effect of exposure to Aptera seems to be the uncontrollable jerking of knees: evidence-free proclamations that "it's a death trap!" or "there's no space inside" or "it'll suck in the snow". I wish some people could just admit they don't like unconventional things, rather than trying to project a reason onto their reaction.
There's an old Asian proverb… nail that sticks out gets hit. That's a very bad thing for a car / autocycle. On the low range, trips to the grocery store would probably be met with lots of stares and questions. That could be fun. But on the extreme range, people might drive aggressively next to the car (or do worse) - simply because they hate electric cars. For years I didn't even put bumper stickers on my car, as I didn't want to attract unnecessary attention. So, driving an Aptera is the complete opposite of that. 😄
I wish they made a hybrid version as I feel the electric only is limiting in rural USA. I think it makes an excellent commuter for singles or dinks. 3 Seater if they own a dog.
"niche vehicle". I was in my teenage years when the Volkswagen Beetle exploded on to the car market during the 1960's. At this time, most Americans were driving polluting, low quality land yachts. The Beetle could be considered a "niche vehicle". The niche was one mighty fine niche! Wikipedia says "With 21,529,464 produced,[17] the Beetle is the longest-running and most-manufactured car of a single platform ever made." Over TWENTY-ONE MILLION Beetles were produced! Aptera could be the next Beetle because the Aptera fits the needs of many people in modern times just like the Beetle did in its day. Aptera is a great event just waiting to happen.
There was a time when the number of people who had a credible need for a computer in the home rendered the early home computers truly "niche". The thing is that small niches have a tendency to pry themselves wide open when new technology arrives. When a cheap but reliable second car appeared, people thought of ways they could use it. when computing became cheap and compact enough to use at home, people took advantage of that with new household activities centered around computing. Aptera is like that. If people recognize the freedom that Aptera's efficiency will offer them- cheap long distance travel without home chargers or range anxiety- many will buy in to the vision.
@@robertkirchner7981 and the cell phone. My first cell phone was a Motorla Flip when it came out in 1990. It cost me $1,000 Bucks. Everyone thought it was a silly toy. Bu when I became pore productive, others went and bought one also. Calls were like 45 cents a minute. No texting.
Aptera will appeal to a large number of people. Initially, they won't corner the market. That won't ever happen. They will grow on people after they've been out for a while. Initially, I thought they looked weird, but I think they look pretty cool now. It actually grew on me. I live in a rural community in Florida. Sunshine is more than abundant and I have acres of open field for solar panels. If someone wrote a prescription for a car, this is the one that would be prescribed for me. With the Aptera, I can use it as a mini pickup. I can easily fit 10 bags of 40 lb. feed easily. I can drive 20 miles to the grocery store and fit all the groceries in the trunk.
As I recall the maximum cargo capacity is a little over 400 pounds including passengers. You will be overloading your car putting your weight and 400 pounds of feed in it. I understand what you are saying. It is more usable than it is given credit for.
@@narphizoid OK, I stand corrected. I was working from memory and that is a dangerous practice for me. But to the point, 400 pounds of load plus a 150+ pound driver is over the load limit. I am sure there is a 10 - 20% extra for liability protection but I am not sure it is good to test the limits.
Yea, you're pretty wrong about Michigan. Michigan, and the Great Lakes in general is North America's region of the future. My region is also the second most densely populated region in the U.S. and Detroit is on a massive upswing right now.@@wingsounds13
I'm not invested in Aptera Yet, but only because of various money issues. I worked on Solar Cars at UNSW, and always sort of wondered when we would see some kind of thing come out for common use. The Aptera looks a lot like many of the computer models we ran, and I appreciate that sort of design lineage. Right now I drive a very beat up Honda Insight, and I'm hoping that Aptera gets out their product out before my Insight finally dies in a non-recoverable way. The Aptera will be my first New Car that I've ever bought. It's a very compelling design, and fits well with my needs for transportation. It's the sort of thing I would have designed, given my background in craving low drag coefficient vehicles.
11:00 Re: Engineering Partnerships. To me, Munro Assoc., whose involvement increased success by orders of magnitude, is the primary engineering partner, as they helped facilitate integration of CPC & determined the assembly process, along with incorporating their “Lean Design” concepts into all aspects of Aptera.
The Aptera would be ideal for the following use cases: Pizza/Food Delivery(Door Dash), College Student, Long Range Commuter (need for efficiency to make it practical), Retired Person or Couple, Single People that live in apartments (no place to charge), Multivehicle Family, and Overlander. Please add your favorite use cases below.
if a family can afford a second car for nipping out or running tasks etc... i think this would be good for them too. Also, so many people feel they need a 5 seater... even single people. I bought an F150 5 years ago and I made sure it was the 4 door to have them extra seats. In 5 years I had people back there once... and that was because I made friends get in to check out my new wheels and took them for coffee.
It's a niche vehicle for sure. Tesla tried to be as mainstream as possible in there design. This is a 3 wheeled two seater. Stop comparing this to Tesla or prius because it will lose every time.
Aptera is definitely not a niche vehicle. There is no niche of people that enjoy paying for gasoline, so people that don't want to have to buy gas for their personal vehicle is not a niche either.
@@NAGIUXS With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, you are thinking that Tesla is not niche. However, everyone said it was niche, even up to a year or so after the Model 3 launched. If we could go together in a time portal to 2015 you would say that Tesla was niche, just like everyone else did.
@juliahello6673 tesla is a car with 4 doors and seats 4 to 5 people, the only thing niche about tesla then was the electric motor, the rodster was definitely a niche vehicle. Aptera on the other hand is a three wheeled motorcycle that can't accommodate child seats and is not required to have all the safety features mandatory for a car. Aptera is the definition of niche. Most will find this vehicle unique but not attractive. I like the looks but outside of tech geeks in most surveys people don't consider this vehicle attractive. We just have to be real with ourselves and have this for ourselves. Market adoption is 50-50 and we should be cool with. If the tesla keeps getting cheaper it will be hard for Aptera and other ev makers to succeed
We all have opinions. Remember you thought that the movement to make tesla the standard charger wasn't a possibility. That didn't age well. My personal experience is mostly I drive alone even though I have a family. Will it be my only car? No. As a 2nd car, it's brilliant.
Nearly everyone is in the same boat. With the kids gone and it's just the two of us 90% of the time we're just one or two in the car. It's the 2nd vehicle that will be used to carry the grandkids. I'm thinking the Aptera is a great road trip car. So cheap to drive we can go coast to coast for so little.
The iPhone was dismissed by the likes of Nokia, Blackberry, & Microsoft. Xerox thought nothing more of the mouse and GUI. Kodak ignored the viability of digital cameras. The auto industry was laughed at by horse owners. Blockbuster thought Netflix was a passing blip on the radar. If Aptera is “doomed to fail”, it’s in good company.
Intel rejected partnering with Apple on IPhone. I was there when it happened! Later Paul Atellini later said that he regretted rejecting the offer by Apple and he mentioned that his spreadsheet numbers predicted it will not sell well!!
The average driving range for EVs in the U.S. is 291 miles. And the average new vehicle price is just over $48K, and the average new EV price is over $53K, so the Aptera's value is competitive, just as long as you don't need to carry more than two people. But I will agree with you that over 25K sales per year is ambitious, as the Aptera is not for everyone. But it is a common mistake for people to assume that if you don't build a vehicle that satisfies everyone's needs, there is a no market. Every single automaker worldwide said that electric vehicles could NEVER be built profitably. And they were historically right...before Tesla proved them wrong. And Tesla also proved that the market for EVs was much bigger than the experts claimed, or imagined. I believe that the demand for big SUVs and trucks is artificially inflated by active legacy automaker marketing, designed specifically to drive higher per-vehicle profits. Notice that there are no more "economy cars" for sale anymore (outside of China or India). I also believe that there is a large, untapped market for smaller, more efficient vehicles, like the Aptera. Also even though you correctly mentioned the wheel motors, belly cooling and composite body, you missed the Aptera's onboard solar. This is also a new technology for any mass production vehicle (in the way that hybrids were new). Even though each of these areas are new, and each of them are a potential point of failure, they each add unique value, and attractiveness to the Aptera. Especially for early adopters, which will be the majority of buyers and investors. Also, I respectfully disagree that Aptera needs $50M or $100M to start production. The ATVM loan will be critical to a SPEEDY success, but I think that Aptera can run lean (without the BIG money up front) and successfully start production using the $20M from the Accelerator program, with around $10M more to come once non-accredited investment resumes in a few weeks. But the matching CA grant money combined with ongoing crowd funding investment and the new tax subsidies should be enough for Aptera to first build a small fleet of Delta models. And provide enough funding for complete efficiency, crash, solar, and range testing of the production-intent model. The results of those tests and small scale production should lead to more funding, and scaling up to volume production in mid-2024. Regardless of big investment or the ATVM loan. Which I think will come quickly once small scale Aptera production begins. Hopefully starting in early in 2024.
As an early VW owner (1965 and 1966), I also drove the car that no one liked because of its shape. There were all sorts of issues. My insurance agent told me repeatedly that the front fenders were airlifts and would lift the front of my VW off the road at speeds over 50 mph. I was told that the car would never work in extreme cold or heat because of its air-cooled engine. The shape was so strange to the American market at the time. Both worries were wrong. I once started the 1966 VW at -10° F after I swept the snow off that had blown overnight into the engine compartment. I then drove through 11 inches of snow about 6 miles until I reach partially plowed roads. My passenger was my stepfather who hated foreign cars and disliked the VW in particular. I got him to work on time and made my classes as well (I was in graduate school). A year later he had revised his opinion of foreign cars, but not of VW. He bought a Vauxhall Victor because it was water cooled. Too bad. When I bought my VWs there was essentially three models: the Beatle, the Ghia, and the Microbus. I don't see the shape and two seater matters being market breakers for the Aptera. Also, if heating and cooling are handled by a heat pump, the impact on mileage should be trivial.
That's a really good comparison. Unstated is "price". If Aptera can be as relatively affordable as the '65 Beetle, it will convert people to the cause.
Not having the $7500 tax credit will be an impediment, but I don't know about huge. This vehicle is unique, and if you want it, you want it. I will buy one with or without any tax credits and I suspect that considerably more than the 43,000 current reservations will as well.
Yea the car will save me more than this anyways. Also personally my primary motivation here is to remove myself from my daily commute needs being tied to fossil fuel or grid costs. This car will get me 85% of where I need to go just being parked outside and a very small supplemental solar setup would take care of the rest in the winter.
Thanks so much for posting your analysis on AOC! The value you bring is balance between the fan boys and the doubters with your analysis. I believe that is why so many trust you and look forward to your videos on important topics in the EV domain. I also think you provide a valuable service to Aptera that nobody else, to include most of the active ambassadors provide. I think Aptera is a remarkable product and the Aptera team has done such a great job on a shoe string budget. I so hope they succeed for many reasons. It would be a shame that such an achievement would go unrecognized
I grew up in a 1963 Beetle and it seated four. It was perfect for a young family, although with limited storage in the frunk and a little well behind the rear seats. All our camping gear went on the roof and bicycles, or skis on the rear. It got replaced with a Microbus in 1969 when the third kid arrived and the floor pan rusted through. Maybe Aptera’s second car will be that, but this one would be good for young singles, or empty nest seniors and commuters. Two seater cars are always in a niche.
I specifically asked Aptera if any of the prototypes have had a belly radiator ("skin cooling") and was told that they did not. Gamma has a fiberglass panel that is formed to resemble a belly radiator but it is not. The Beta prototype was fitted with a traditional air-cooled radiator but - so far - it's the only prototype that has a cooling system. And Aptera isn't the first to have a belly radiator (we really need to stop calling it "skin cooling" as the term is misleading): Mercedes has incorporated a belly radiator in its EQXX ultra-long-range vehicle.
I'm a firm believer "Build it and they will come". This vehicle will be an excellent daily driver for short commutes. We spend most of our time in our cars alone. Once this is seen on the street, the interest is going to grow exponentially.
If just 1,500 of the 45,000 people already on the wait list pay it forward and invest the $33,200 now that will eventually be spent on the vehicle, Aptera Motors would have the $50M cash in hand to start production. Shame on us if as a community we can't extend a bridge loan and get this done. Be the change you wish to see in the world.
Investing the money now means we'd have to come up with that amount again after production starts, thus doubling the purchase cost. Investment isn't a "loan" - it's an outright gift to the company, with no guarantee of dividends or other payback.
Something I think many people are missing is there is huge pent up demand for an electric car for apartment dwellers. Look up percentage of the population who live in apartments. Electric cars till now are not usable when there is no plug in sight where we park at night.
Credit for the following description goes to Bruce Nelson. To clarify on Aptera cooling... The production vehicle will have two cooling sources: airflow around the vehicle will remove heat from the exterior of the belly pan, and the air conditioning will either cool the interior side of the belly pan or the cooling liquid directly, as needed. Aptera has not released the particular A/C integration details just yet, due to patent involvement, I believe. The two methods complement each other well... when exterior temperatures and airflow allow, the belly pan will be enough cooling on its own, otherwise the A/C can supplement. When exterior temperatures are higher or no airflow is available (when parked and charging for example) the A/C can be the sole source of cooling.
What Bruce's ideas don't take into consideration is exhausting the waste heat generated by the AC system. A Model 3, for example, can make quite a racket while charging because it spins-up a fan system to blow air through its (almost) belly-mounted radiator to lower the temperature of the battery pack.
@@AutoTeknix1 The exterior surface of the belly pan is the radiator with integral cooling tubes on its interior side. If additional cooling is needed, intake air can enter from the windshield wiper area at the base of the windshield to flow across the interior of the belly pan, continuing to exit the body at the rear on either side of the license plate. This is also how the air conditioning purges its heat. The A/C can also supplement cooling at anytime needed, or do the whole job if the vehicle is parked with no airflow over the belly at all.
I would say at best 50k a year in sales. That would easily sustain them. But I think you are right about 10k a year once things settles down after the initial rush of the reservation holders.
600,000 is the potential sales per year. That just counts what could be sold if the convinced everyone of those customers to buy Aptera instead of what they would normally buy. It is Aptera's job to sell as many vehicles in that market as they can.
Correct. This is from a general business education. Aptera has identified their "market," the pool of annual unit buyers that are potential Aptera customers. No company expects to achieve 100% market share. But this type of information shows the size of the pool they are playing in. A new entry into a market shoots for low single digit "share" of a market when they enter it and grow that share over time.
The niche of aptera expands as the price is kept low and the self-charging range is extended. It's an easy second car that way, for the stay-at-home spouse to run errands while the kids are at school or run a kid to the doctor/dentist appointment or the retiree spouse. Low enough price and people may get them as a backup vehicle -- say the ICE is stuck at the dealer for parts and repairs and it's a whole lot easier to have your own backup vehicle. People will get over styling for cost.
I found this video hilarious for several reasons, but the most interesting one was when you said that Aptera is being overly optimistic because it looks weird. There is absolutely a very strange looking vehicle that has over a million pre-orders that everybody apparently hates the look of first name, cyber last name, truck I think... At any rate, thank you for the video!
I wonder if the Tesla star power has anything to do with it's numbers. Ya, CT is different and clunky looking to me... but also somehow rad and tough in a futuristic way. Aptera seems more cutesy and almost feminized to me. I still want one, tho! I love the tech and the futuristic look it has.
To be clear guys, I'm not necessarily a cyber truck fan personally because I do not need the utility that vehicle offers. I just need a daily commuter which is why I have an Aptera on reservation. If I do end up needing a hauler later on in life, cyber truck is definitely something I would consider though.
Aptera, delivered in 2019 would have rocked the world. In 2024, at $40 000 usd, it will have direct competition with ev's at $50,000 usd and down. (With incentives) If they drop the sale price under $30,000 usd, it will be fine. Still not great, as a base M3 will cost the same after incentives. If tesla announces the M2 in 2025 with a $25,000 usd base price... that will eat into Aptera sales. Especially if built in Mexico and getting 7500 incentives
Totally agree... they are too late to market. Electric cars are getting cheaper and I fear the Aptera will be too expensive to compete with a 25k Tesla model 2
@@RedPowerStation Aptera is not a cheap vehicle but for specific use cases its specs crush the competition. If the government either includes them in incentives or scales down incentives then Aptera is priced very well and has huge advantages. I would love to see EV incentives replaced with a simple 10% tax on new ICE vehicles (encourages EVS, ebikes, commuting, carpooling, transit etc); because only impacts new vehicles it doesn't hurt lower class that can't afford new vehicles like carbon/gas taxes. Not gonna happen but it makes far more sense than current complex programs with all the loopholes, exceptions, administration costs and interpretations (IRA battery rules / leasing loophole are a F%$@ mess)
None of the competition will have a vehicle that features free, wireless celestial charging. Not even a Tesla Model 2 will make it's own fuel. No one else is even close, because no one else will be as efficient. No gas, oil, or even a plug. How much is that worth, incentives or not?
@@barnabasseadog7660 Unfortunately Aptera won't have sentry mode, is a prime vandalism target and even if it had sentry mode that would use more power than the solar gathers. Tesla's sentry mode implementation uses 250-300 w which adds up to an insane 2.6 MWH per year. This is why I plan to park it in the garage; efficiency is enough - solar does not need to define the vehicle; without it Aptera is a EV sports car with storage, long range, and right to repair approach.
@barnabasseadog7660 a little objective math. if aptera averages 30 miles/ day or 11000 "free" miles per year and drives 20 000 miles per year... only 9000 miles are bought thru charging. If it gets 10 miles /kwh, that's only 900 kwh. At off peak rates of 15 cents/kwh that's $135 in annual fuel cost. If competition gets 4miles /kwh the same 20,000 miles uses 5000kwh. At the same 0.15/kwh it costs $750 annually. Or $615 more than an aptera. It's not that great of an advantage compared to a small light EV. UNLESS you live in a place where you cant charge overnight. Like an apartment. EA average is 0.50/kwh. The EV cost then is 2300 more per year.
I think you are overlooking the potential for fleet vehicle sales and international sales outside the US where gas prices are much higher and there is less interest in SUVS, Minivans, and Trucks. I think there is a huge upside for sales figures much more than Mazda Miata, or Toyota Prius where these are not used as fleet vehicles. Aptera is truly a new paradigm in transportation and the style will be easily adopted when people experience the practicality of this innovative vehicle.
I consider the 600,000 sales number to be a long-term goal, not out-of-the-gate sales. Aptera plans to eventually design and offer vehicles with more seating , more wheels, etc. And hub motors are NOT a new thing since there were vehicles in the early 1970s that had hub motors. Of course they were built by Boeing at a cost of $38,000,000 each! Did you see the Aptera video released on the 28th showing the Gamma climbing to a 1,600' scenic overlook: th-cam.com/video/ar_6RtTmKv8/w-d-xo.html
The way the numbers were laid out it looked like they were talking the normal Aptera. I don't know how motorcycles have any impact on the future 4 door Aptera.
Aptera took advantage of bringing Munro Associates onboard early in the design and manufacturing process. This gives them a definitive edge towards success.
Voices on the internet are non-sene...Aptera is actually what the large percentage of US households need...look at the data here: Conducted by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), the NHTS is the authoritative source on the travel behavior of the American public. FHWA has launched the Next-Generation National Household Travel Survey (NextGen NHTS) to establish a more continuous travel monitoring program with national and local data products. In addition to the probabilistic core travel survey, NextGen NHTS also includes an origin-destination (OD) data program that produces multimodal passenger and truck travel OD tables at the national and local levels from passively collected data sources.
My meter is the expert opinion of Sandy Munro. Sandy feels the market is moving to smaller, more efficient vehicles, and he is very excited about Aptera. Sandy is excited enough about the market opportunity of Aptera to invest in the company... this speaks volumes to me!
We'll find out if he's right or wrong, eventually. Unfortunately I don't agree with him on Aptera. The car needs 4 wheels, and better ground clearance around the wheels, even if you have to push a button to raise the wheel cowlings/fenders, a few inches when approaching roads with any uneven surfaces.@@ronnw8153
I really like the looks of this vehicle; but I think they need to sacrifice a wee-bit of efficiency, and raise the wheel covers to expose more tire, in order to better handle mud, snow, and potholes.
Continuing my VW comparison. The 1964 VW had a price of $1599 including destination and dealer prep fees. The price was non-negotiable. I was in the showroom in 1964 when a middle-aged couple came in to look at the cars. After about 20 minutes they approached the salesman and the man offered the VW salesman $1299. His response was (and I remember his words still today), "If you want a VW coupe, the price is $1599. If you want to haggle over the price of a new coupe, there's a Ford dealer just up the street who would probably be delighted to see you." The man looked insulted and his female companion was wide-eyed. Without a further word, they turned around and quickly left. The 1965 VW coupe had the same price. Adjusting for inflation, $1599 in 1965 had the same purchasing power as $15,448 today. The 1965 VW was a basic car with a sole safety feature being a lap belt (those were optional on most domestic cars). It had a 6 volt, positive ground electrical system, vacuum-powered windshield wipers,, an AM radio, drum brakes, a convective heat/defrost system that needed the car to be in motion to work, The windshield washer worked from a pressurized fluid reservoir. The car was powered by a 40-horsepower, four-cylinder, 1.2-liter aluminum-magnesium engine, which was linked to a four-speed manual transmission. The gas mileage was 22 mpg, its gas tank held 12.5 gallons, giving it a range of 275 miles. It's top speed was 79 mph, its acceleration time from 0 to 60 mph was 33 seconds. Thus, a simple comparison of inflation-adjusted prices for the 1965 VW coupe to that of the Launch Edition Aptera is not appropriate. Most of the technology in the Aptera didn't exist, was science and engineering fiction, or considered to be way to expensive ever be put in a car.
It is not a family car but a motorcycle is not a family bike either. If I have a choice of driving on a 1000 mile trip I'd take the Aptera because it would cost next to nothing compared to even my Prius Prime. Plus I'm sure it would also be fun which is not something to expect when you take your normal car.
As a person who loves efficiency, I really hope this comes the market. Personally, I don’t need more than two seats and I think the Aptera looks amazing. The only thing that I am hesitant about with the design is that I wonder how much of a bump the front wheel covers can handle before they scrape. I’ve got a large curb in my driveway and I have my doubts about those wheel covers.
GEN X, Y, and Z, generally don’t travel in large groups. One person and a friend, one person and one child or one person and a pet. Perfect for the Aptera! No one vehicle will serve all transportation needs. Aptera will do just fine in their groove!!!
That’s me, i’ll be towing it behind the RV on a trailer, unless they figure out out how to charge the batteries towing it with the wheels on the ground.
Agree this would be a good market segment for Aptera BUT EV can't be flat towed and an AWD one can't be dolly towed due to the regenerative braking. Probably even worse when you move to hub motors
Aptera's extreme uniqueness is the best argument for their survival. If it was yet another SUV they would have zero chance of succeeding, the world is full of electric SUVs, no startup can enter the SUV market no matter how well funded. They will have the only Jetsons car and it's a small enough niche that they don't have to worry about anyone else entering the space This is at best a 10000 car per year product but the way they've designed it they should be able to build them profitably at a few thousand per year run rate. The thing that will kill them is money. If they can't raise the money to go into production they will die.
I think many criticisms made by Echo are valid in the current energy/transportation environment that we are in and have been in. The world is going to have to make some dramatic and perhaps painful decisions about how we move along the surface of the planet and what energy source we use to do that. If gasoline prices double or triple, if the grid shudders under the strain of new EVs then the place for Aptera will change. As far as styling goes, tastes change. An Aptera might one day look at commonplace as a VW bug.
Well over 1 million Miatas have been sold, first of all. Also, when I show people an Aptera many of them say hell no, and then I tell them it's solar powered and probably won't need charging, and then they say hell yes. The Miata has very poor storage space, an Aptera doesn't, among many other reasons why Aptera vehicles should sell quite well.
Nice review. Two thoughts on details: -- cabin heating and cooling may be less of a load than people think. Better-than-normal sealing will be possible with the simple composite body and that's a big part of HVAC load. And heat conduction through composite is far less than through metal. Also, there is relatively little glass, especially with the solar hatch. That matters. -- "skin" cooling. I do not think ANY of the Aptera prototypes have a cooling system representative of the production vehicle. I believe the liquid-to-air heat exchanger will be an aluminum plate that will constitute the bottom of the car, not the composite skin like the non-beta prototypes have. I have faith that such an arrangement will be able to have ample margin, considering the relatively small heat loads Aptera will impose. However, the whole system will be complex, with motors, inverters, battery, and interior cooling/heating. Digital modeling in this area is pretty good, but convincing proof requires accurate physical prototypes.
I think the Echo Electric video got a lot more right than wrong. It should be concerning that Aptera’s reservations have somewhat petered out in the last few months. I, personally, think the grandiose business plans worrying about how to supply major volumes could jeopardize their ability just to get into production. As time goes on, I can’t help but to acknowledge that FOMO on some of the new cars coming out on the market is setting in. Aptera is due for another update as it has been a while, and I am hoping there is more marked progress.
Such a great vehicle for efficient transportation. I am in the mid west and ordered mine 3 years ago with investment too, and this is a long wait. I was worried they would burn up money fast with the many prototype phases. I have spent time in Europe, and this will sell very well there. Hope there are some European investors that ordered an Aptera. Perhaps they should have an assembly plant in Europe too, since major parts are sourced over there.
The only way guys like me will buy the Aptera is to be able to test drive it and then like how it feels and drives.. When a vehicle is breaking new ground in looks and such and will set you back $30K or so it only makes sense that you need to sit in it and drive it. Personally I think that once it gets out there and proves itself in terms of how cheap it is to drive and people get used to its strange looks then they will want to see what all the fuss is about. I don't think Aptera is speculating that this one model of theirs is going to sell 600,000 units per year. I think they are looking ahead a other models that include 4 wheel, 5 passenger vehicles.
Post-sale service seems like the biggest hurdle to me. At least that's what gives me the most pause about carrying through with my order (if I ever get the chance).
Steve, I think (hope) the reason they don’t have enough capital to move forward into production is because they are waiting for the federal energy loan, which would be relatively cheap and not come with the risk of losing control of the company like what happened before.
Apple had the concept that you should not offer people what they are buying, but rather to offer something that they don't know that they need yet. Some of the sales are projected to be as a second vehicle.
"It is a very unusual looking vehicle." - Your basis for categorizing the Aptera as a "niche" market vehicle based upon aesthetics seems pretty flawed to me. "wouldn't be caught dead in one" can change to "would love to show off my new" in pretty short order whereas the utility of an Aptera isn't nearly as fleeting. Needing to commute every day, lack of availability of charging at one's home location, a 2 person family, feeling driven to be part of the solution to climate change, saving money on fuel, etc. These functional/utility attributes tend to last years if not decades and will surely win over many with an initial knee-jerk reaction to Aptera's looks.
Great video! 😃👍 I think the main problem with Aptera is money… it's a little too expensive compared to a more traditional Model 3 with a $7500 tax credit, and as you mentioned… Aptera needs more money to produce the vehicle. It's strange. If people want a cleaner environment, isn't this the best vehicle on the horizon to combat that problem? And even if you're not worried about that, what about national security? Wouldn't it be better for the grid to have an Aptera in every backyard? It seems like a great prepper vehicle. So, why isn't more money being thrown at Aptera? I just read something about $12 billion for US EV automakers and suppliers. Does that include Aptera? 🤷🏻♂
The product speaks for itself. I'm confident that Aptera can sell at least 1 M vehicles (total) over the next ten years. That is still a very small % of the over all car market and very much a niche product but like Steve said plenty enough to build a profitable business. They'll be able to sell all that they can make for at least five years.
Wow, that's a tough one. I think the Aptera is somewhat more unique. I think if I saw a Cybertruck on the road, I think… "Ah, it's finally on the road." Seeing an Aptera probably would be a more interesting experience. That rear wheel makes it look like the car is floating.
So imagine you live in LA with huge traffic jams and plenty of sunshine. Aptera MUST appeal to you in that case. It is being charged while you are waiting in the traffic! It is less expensive that ANY other ICE cars around. You can drive in the HOV lane! So the appeal is there, and waiting for folks to see, understand and then follow their own interest. Most of the cars stuck in traffic carry no more than two passnegers! So I would say the market is huge.
I think it may become the pickup truck replacement for workers that need a great hand power tool carrying vehicle with solar on the rear hatch blocking the trunk view and keeping lithium tool batteries protected from sun heat and that charging power outlet. Driving to a work site often a fair distance will work out perfectly.
I’d like to toss around the idea of making a three-seater configuration, with the driver positioned dead center, two seats either side slightly staggered behind, made compromisingly narrow, like what you might see in a McLaren. Cool. This would be a driver’s car, after all.🌿🐇 (generation 2 Aptera, with [low-cost] interior modifications only. Still a sports-car/commuter, but then able to pack in two passengers.)🗿
Unsurprisingly those who implicitly suggest that the Aptera had to look like an ordinary car (aka "brick") in order to have enough market acceptance will not disappear quicker than those who ages ago wouldn't build think of building a motorcar that didn't look like a horse carriage.
The fact that so many EVs look like ICEVs, with a huge long hood up front, represents a failure of imagination by the designers and a lost opportunity to fully exploit the advantages of electric propulsion.
@@robertkirchner7981 I agree, albeit at least to a certain degree a long hood could of course be used to improve aerodynamics (to not end up like a shoe box with rounded cornes like Canoo did). But legacy and even most new automakers don't even do that. This is why I can't express how glad I am that Aptera is around!
@2:35 Aptera doess't expect to sell 600K units, only 10K. The 600,000 units/year marketsize does not mean they expect to sell 600,000 units (unless they aim for a monopoly). Marketsize denotes the total number of customers expected to be interested in the type of product. If Aptera quotes a marketsize of 600K and a projected sales of 10K, they anticipate a marketshare of 17%. I have no idea whether a marketsize of 600,000 u/yr or a marketshare of 17% are realistic, just trying to educate how those terms are used in startups
Aptera is ideally suited for retirement communities throughout the US, I am on the list with it and a cyber truck. So the numbers are way bigger than you think!
I have a concern and hope other will chime in. Aptera told us that when they raise 20,000,000 in the Leaderboard they will start production in 8 month to one year. What you are saying they need billions befor they start production. Are you just wrong or was we lied to???? 😢
I'm thinking the same thing, As a retired trucker, I'll betcha it's gonna be real nice when the old back gets stiff to get out, stretch, and lay down in the back for a snooze. The more you drive this thing the more you save! All they need now is a set of inflatable pontoons so we could take it fishing!
@@edbruder9975 well it's certainly light enough for those pontoons to attach to the three wheels , then the front wheels would sit in two separate floating devices, and when you activated the front wheels it would cause some sort of paddle wheels to move the car forward and also to turn . Yes I can see this as an after market device .
The "potential market" is not a sales figure - it is an indication of the size of the market that Aptera is trying to sell to. For example, the 'potential market' for pedal bikes is maybe 3 billion. But a new bike model is not going to sell 3 billion, it will be a tiny fraction of that, because there are other bikes on the market, people don't want to buy right now, etc etc. 600k market size is absolutely tiny. That number is a clear statement that Aptera recognise it is selling into a niche.
I am skeptical about Aptera, but not because I think the market size is small. If they do a good job and get this car into our hands, this would be the 2nd commuter for a lot of "normal people". The reason I'm skeptical about Aptera is the founders can NOT deliver. They are taking a full salary and spending all of their time raising funds for a "solar mobility" car (which "over screams promise under deliver"), instead of just getting a super efficient EV into the hands of people who want a 2nd car for commuting to work and getting groceries. Just ship the damn thing and find out. If you don't ship you fail by default. (Also, I could invest in Aptera $30,000, but I've held off so far. My reason is I don't like a CEO who is taking a full salary but doesn't show any urgency to ship even a beta car. You don't take a salary until you ship cars. And you should be shipping "beta" cars right now!!!! There isn't any excuse not to)
Aptera is a must for ppl that live in Apartments and Condo Complexes as many are not allowed to charge at their places of residence. Those able to park outdoors will be charged by the sun. For me, as for many ppl, I only need a 2 seater for over 95% of my driving.
I think the Aptera's width is actually going to be a fairly significant problem for most people. It's a foot and a half wider than most cars and CUVs and wider than even huge luxury SUVs. The only non-commercial vehicles that are wider are dualie trucks. I'm an investor and I hope they succeed, but I get the idea that most of the Aptera team are not really car people and there would've been a big benefit to having a real car person on the development team.
The factors highlighted in the video are those that I consider influential at the system level that affect the probability of Aptera being a consistent "Going concern" many of which Aptera has little or no control over. After looking at the comments on the forum (So far) most commenters are still down in the nits (trees - features etc.) rather than considering or analyzing the systemic factors. (The forest) I am hoping that Aptera and others are cognizant of these factors and at some level, tactical, operational, or strategic, are working to counter then as much as possible. Some time, it is just a roll of the dice that leads to success or failure.
I love everything but the skin cooling, I think they should have a slot underneath where the aluminum pan is supposed to be and the air exit out the back where the taillights are located .
I still stand on the hill that if they made a 5 seater and made it for ridesharing and rental first it would have been best 40 mile of range on a top of a parking garage getting 40 miles of range a day in ideal conditions. kept it as a autocycle for less wear.
Actually, public transportation and e-bikes would be more environmentally valuable! It's the efficiency that makes the Aptera as private transportation more valuable as long as the highway systems are maintained.
@@dennisroe5178 Also a pipe dream. We are car centric. Public transportation is expensive to build and maintain. And it is covered in . . . public. The infrastructure for private vehicles is already in place.
Obviously a niche vehicle, but it's in several niches at the same time. I just do not think people know the full extent of the vehicles capabilities and how it can upgrade ones quality of life. Everything depends on producing these first two thousand Launch Editions. Everything else falls into place once Aptera starts delivering. Chris Anthony has said he expects the path to profitability by end of 2024. It all hinges on the ATVM loan. I can still happen, Apteras success is still in play.
Polaris Slingshot sales are about 5000 a year (Aptera has it beat in every way). So looking at MX-5, Slingshot, and the other 2 seater sales etc.. My feeling is 15000 a year. Price will also play heavly into this number. Hopefully we will get see how this all plays out.
Where I live in New Westminster BC Canada most families have more than one vehicle. I walk a lot and see a lot of cars, most with only a driver. An Aptera would be perfect for me but I don't know if I could bring it into Canada and have no idea how much the insurance wouid be. I get my electricity from a community solar installation so charging is not problem. Fingers crossed.
Great, honest critique! A few qualifiers… 1. Niche - SHORT-TERM (3-5y) then same design principles applied to 4-wheel, 4-seater = success even in crowded market. 4. Tech/Manufacturing - smart approach & more risk NOT innovating (emulating mediocrity would guarantee failure); 6. Finance - If/when safety & performance is VERIFIED the funding will appear instantly.
I think there are specific markets that will live good vehicle, and you did touch on them. I own a currier/delivery business and this is the ultimate vehicle for that. Even the small battery unit would work for my fleet needs. Additionally, there are thousands of people that camp/road trip out of their prius because there is enough room to sleep in it and the battery can be used to power things and use the climate controls for cold/hot nights, plus the efficiency of course. The added efficiency and even the small solar panels makes this even better than a prius in that regard. I'm looking forward to getting mine both for work and for recreation.
I wonder if the pie chart was their guess of the possible customers in each category so it’s a fraction of the total population. Now there could unfortunately be overlap between several categories as well which is a bad thing.
Design is good for that volume, this is the future. . I work in sales and drive everyday alone. I have ordered one. Our family has 4 Tesla cars since 2014.
You can point out that they plan to design and produce 4 and 6 passenger vehicles down the road. I assume they will have good high efficiency but not as good as the 2 person version.
I think the 600,000 units per year was misunderstood. Aptera is not stating they can sell that many in a year. They are stating the current market that the Aptera fits into is currently selling 600,000 cars per year. The "market" is defined by the breakdown (2 passenger, efficient, 3 wheel, etc). Aptera is only planning a production capacity of 10,000 units per year, in a market that demands 600,000 units per year. One way to look at it is, at full production, Aptera is trying to take their 1.66% of the pie (10k/600k). If each Aptera sells for 30k, then that's 300 million in production per year, not too shabby.
I watched that video that you are responding to in full, both parts. It is click bait. It had an AI voice over, and was otherwise created by someone under the age of 9. The full purpose of the video was to drive donations to the kid who has medical issues referenced in the start of the video. I say 9, though maybe 7 would be more accurate, all of the comparisons are to action toys.
I bet when the public sees the “Final Design” on the roads…interest and sales will skyrocket. It only took a few hours of research for me to jump in and make a reservation.😊🌞⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️ Whats the status on the “Skin Cooling” system?
No crystal balls can tell you if Echo Electric, or the fans of Aptera are right. My money is on Aptera, as it makes so much sense, and covers lots of different bases. I currently drive a Prius and enjoy the ability to drive long distances and not have my wallet hurting from my driving. At 55+ MPG it is ok to visit my son 1000 miles away. But the Aptera will get closer to 330 MPGe, and that makes it a great deal less in cost. The lack of fumes, makes me happy too. Not a huge save the world guy, but I do think removing all those pollutants from the air, might allow many fewer breathing problems. So, environmentalist will love this car, cheapskates will love this car, engineers will see the totality of the features and be excited. Gearheads seeing 0-60 in 4 seconds will be interested, and the campers who don't want to pay for the Motel Six to keep the light on, will flock to the fun machine. CPC wants to see this happen, the ATVM loan should be happening from what I understand they hit all the buttons needed to make it happen. I really think once that loan is granted, the whales will want to show up, and the risk will be pretty much done, that risk will be minimal, and so the fence sitters will want to pile in. My hope is Aptera jacks the price of entry knowing the loan will be enough to get them going and postpones the IPO until such time as they can show a profit, after debt service. Echo Electric makes a few decent points, and funding is the key, Chris and Steve have pushed so hard, that I am positive somehow, they will make this dream come true. The world will be a better place with Aptera on the highways, and byways of the planet. VW Bettles were everywhere in the 1960's, the backseat was a joke, but they were cheap to run, and maintain, not much different than the much more modern Aptera. Hard to tell what the reaction of the consumers will be, but on the road will turn a lot of eyeballs to looking at it. Fleet sales are a very real possibility due to cost of per mile over the lifetime of the car being so very low. If I owned a chain of pizza places, (think uber eats, or Door Dash) what better way to deliver in than an Aptera. NAPA auto parts stores need dealers to get delivery of parts, and again Aptera fits the fleet ideal. Number of units sold I think will be higher than what most expect. Gas at $5/gallon, college kids that want/need transportation, and empty nesters, which is a growing group as less folks have children too. I remember driving before SUV's existed, a station wagon was as big as it got, time for efficiency to meant more in transportation. A recession might in fact help Aptera, as is will be a cheaper, better alternative. If you are still reading thanks for listening to my rant, I believe this is a real game changer, and advancement which needs to happen.
I think the largest issue is that they dont have any on the road right now. Nothing drives interest in vehicles more than seeing them in neghborhoods and highways. The fact that they dont have a full model out touring the country at this time is crazy to me.
Arcimoto has been on the road for a few years, yet the sales for this year will be 250 tops. They were ramping up to sell 50K by 2025. People seeing them on the road doesn't necessarily mean, people will be opening up their wallets. Arcimoto even allows you to rent them in ideal locations as you can get the experience. Yet they never tell what the conversion from renting one and buying one is. So far they have over 900 rentals this year.
@@billsmith5960 Arcimoto is an open air vehicle. Anyo e who thought that would be widely wanted anywhere except a few climates was deluding themselves.
@@yougeo - Getting it on the street was to make people in those areas go bonkers over it and the sales would skyrocket. Yet they are just creeping up. They even did rental and in hopes that would boost sales.
Apter is a fair weather vehicle too. It's just that it's enclosed. I want them to prove me wrong by using it here in the NE during the snowy season. I want to see it hold up. I want to see them park it on a city street. I want to see that charging by the solar panels.
So far, it's only under ideal conditions. Only snow was a plowed parking lot in Switzerland. If you have ever been there, the roads are pristine and they are over the top when it comes to plowing. Nothing like the US.
I think that is a good point. It is hard to really imagine what a new concept this is until there are a few prototypes actually on the road and being reviewed. I am suspicious because there are so few people who have actually driven the car unsupervised. True, many have been taken for a ride by experienced drivers on specific test streets. This video had hit on many of the weak points, and being an Aptera fan-boy, has taken the more positive outcome. His most valid points are 1). 2 seater cars have sold very poorly, ie Smart for 2 by MB, Fiat 500e, 2). The size of the Aptera may not fit many European streets or single car garages in the US at 89 inches of width. 3). Composite shell body/frame. This is not uncommon in both the boating or race car industry, but the Aptera is a non-gusseted body, much like an egg-shell. Once the crush weight is overcome, it collapses. In Formula 1 racers, the driver is encased in a gusseted life cabin. There is nothing like that in the Aptera which is a one dimensional planar construction. 4) In wheel motors; Elaphe has also made these for the Lordstown Endurance truck. We all know what happened when it entered the Baja race. Aptera will have an even worse ratio of unsprung weight. 5) In- body-cooling. There is not enough surface area on the Aptera to totally cool the motor, air-conditioning, and controller. A ducted radiator could have been designed inside of the rear wheel cowling. One does not want to encase himself in a passenger compartment that is surrounded by heated fluids in case of an accident and breaching of the coolant pathways. That system will also raise the inside cabin temperature. A vehicle that will be sitting in the sun all day with so many windows is a literal greenhouse. Many of us park in the shade or garage to prevent this. Too much electricity will be used just to cool the car enough just to start driving in it. 6). The side windows have too small an area of roll-down window. This prevents it from being used as an escape in event of roll-over position in an accident. The pseudo-window frame if much too restrictive and blocks a critical part of one peripheral view. 7). Aptera had once consulted Sandy Munro to plan a progressive expandable building and construction plan. They will start building a few cars per month and progress to a higher number once the bugs have been worked out. From his boat construction experience, Chris was going to vacuum bag initial body molds by hand. But instead, they have opted for a very expensive full molds and contracts. 8). Like Elio, who made the mistake of trying to build its own motor while boasting of using on shelf parts, Aptera has spent too much in their own solar panels. They should have gone with on the shelf parts. 9). The total payload of 500lbs is going to limit many. Even though the cargo hatch is large, it capacity is limited to 100 lbs after two average size people are in the car. Unlike many other small cars, the Aptera cannot tow a small trailer. 10). Most importantly, because of these faults, outside investors including established car companies have shied away from investing in Aptera. Even the State of California has recently given Ryvid Motors $20 million grant for the motorcycle start-up. Seems odd that another motorcycle unknown has been able to get a grant. But Ryvid has a good startup manufacturing design and plan which could be ramped up as growth demands it. Aptera has a hard uphill road to get to the peak, but once it does, it is downhill and smoother sailing from that point. Aptera has created many of their own problems.
@SilverShadow2LWB Ryvid is killing it at the moment, and I'd love to get one after longer term reviews.
I think that a large niche market for Aptera will be retirees, like me!
Aptera is perfect for a retired couple with perhaps a dog or two in the family. The thought of not paying $50 every week for gas is very appealing. By yourself, or just the two of you (with the pups) driving for appointments, shopping, just cruising, etc.
Not to mention the fun of quietly blowing past the souped up ICE mobiles at green lights…
I'm retired also and agree with you. I have a 2010 Honda Fit, 4 seats, 4 doors. I'm the only person in it 99% of the time. The rear hatch area is pretty big which is a feature I like. Us first generation boomers are many in number. I think it will sell well in our age group.
I drive a 2017 Ford Fiesta, and drive it fairly hard. I put $20 in, in gas, every couple weeks.
You live where fuel is cheap. Here, where diesel costs US$ 5.60 per gallon, it cost me forty bucks just drive my Jetta tdi wagon to the Apple store to get this laptop fixed and then to pick it up after. @@DetroitMicroSound
I went to see the gamma model when it was showcased in San Diego about a month ago, and most of the spectators looking at it were around retirement age. I think you're about right: Retirees and empy-nesters will likely be the largest market. Others will follow, once the vehicle hits the streets and gets seen.
My family consists of two people, this is a perfect family vehicle.
Our household already drives a smart ForTwo electric and we love it.
Looking forward to owning an Aptera Launch Edition soon ☀️⚡️
Only 2 people here also.
Single person here. Still perfect for me. I've always gotten 4-seaters, as most of my cars have been former state vehicles, though I now drive a prius. As much as I love my prius, I'm just realizing that the 4 extra seats are really a waste. I may have a passenger a handful of times every year. I want an Aptera for the efficiency and the cool look, but I am really looking forward to the trunk space (the prius doesn't have much) and not having 3 extra seats I will never use.
Having a whole Model Y for just my dog and I encourages us to bring way too much with us. 😂
Most families consist of 2.4 people so this is a non starter.
I'm an investor and I'm 50/50 on Aptera's chances at success. Something that surprised me is the seemingly low level of interest in this car. Probably because im a tech nerd I was blown away when I first came across it 3 years ago and wrongly assumed most would be amazed by it as well. That doesnt seem to be the case. I feel like this would be a great second car for someone who needs to run around and get some tasks done.. and a delivery vehicle in some cases as well... auto parts or medical delivery, food delivery type things.
Yup. It would be perfect for many delivery gigs, but most people doing jobs like that would be financially better off buying a used Chevy Bolt instead of a new Aptera.
Low interest is because there is none on the road. Once delivery begins, its unique shape will sell itself. This is why investors like us are anxious for Aptera to start production.
Fer Shure!
11:00 Re: Engineering Partnerships. To me, Munro Assoc., whose involvement increased success (& investor confidence) by orders of magnitude, is the primary engineering partner, as they helped facilitate integration of CPC & determined the assembly process, along with incorporating their “Lean Design” concepts into all aspects of Aptera. P.S. I’m currently looking for wheel driven trailers which, with 4W differential steering would be able to manage tongue weight, by suppressing porpoising, & snaking from traffic & winds.
@@Crunch_dGHAgreed. Wheel driven trailers will be the invisible game changer.
After World War Two, the British occupation forces in Germany offered Henry Ford, free and clear, a car factory struggling to build cars in the wreckage of Europe. He thought that their small, cramped, ugly car would be at best a niche vehicle, so he declined to take over the Volkswagenwerk. "I don't think what we're being offered here is worth a damn", he said.
I agree with other posters that people's initial negative "I wouldn't be caught dead" reactions are just a reflex response to such a radical design and some of their preconceived notions. Seeing the vehicles driving around (and riding in/driving one) will change people's minds pretty quickly--just like with Teslas.
As soon as my Mom drove my Model 3, she said, "Oh my God, I had no idea. I thought it was just a toy. How do I get one?"
A side effect of exposure to Aptera seems to be the uncontrollable jerking of knees: evidence-free proclamations that "it's a death trap!" or "there's no space inside" or "it'll suck in the snow".
I wish some people could just admit they don't like unconventional things, rather than trying to project a reason onto their reaction.
People are trapped by tradition, tradition is what you do when you incapable or unwilling to have new ideas.
There's an old Asian proverb… nail that sticks out gets hit. That's a very bad thing for a car / autocycle. On the low range, trips to the grocery store would probably be met with lots of stares and questions. That could be fun. But on the extreme range, people might drive aggressively next to the car (or do worse) - simply because they hate electric cars.
For years I didn't even put bumper stickers on my car, as I didn't want to attract unnecessary attention. So, driving an Aptera is the complete opposite of that. 😄
I wish they made a hybrid version as I feel the electric only is limiting in rural USA. I think it makes an excellent commuter for singles or dinks. 3 Seater if they own a dog.
@@joemaloney1019
Is there no electricity in real USA? Do they still use whale oil lamps?
"niche vehicle". I was in my teenage years when the Volkswagen Beetle exploded on to the car market during the 1960's. At this time, most Americans were driving polluting, low quality land yachts. The Beetle could be considered a "niche vehicle". The niche was one mighty fine niche! Wikipedia says "With 21,529,464 produced,[17] the Beetle is the longest-running and most-manufactured car of a single platform ever made." Over TWENTY-ONE MILLION Beetles were produced! Aptera could be the next Beetle because the Aptera fits the needs of many people in modern times just like the Beetle did in its day. Aptera is a great event just waiting to happen.
There was a time when the number of people who had a credible need for a computer in the home rendered the early home computers truly "niche". The thing is that small niches have a tendency to pry themselves wide open when new technology arrives. When a cheap but reliable second car appeared, people thought of ways they could use it. when computing became cheap and compact enough to use at home, people took advantage of that with new household activities centered around computing.
Aptera is like that. If people recognize the freedom that Aptera's efficiency will offer them- cheap long distance travel without home chargers or range anxiety- many will buy in to the vision.
@@robertkirchner7981 and the cell phone. My first cell phone was a Motorla Flip when it came out in 1990. It cost me $1,000 Bucks. Everyone thought it was a silly toy. Bu when I became pore productive, others went and bought one also. Calls were like 45 cents a minute. No texting.
Aptera will appeal to a large number of people. Initially, they won't corner the market. That won't ever happen. They will grow on people after they've been out for a while. Initially, I thought they looked weird, but I think they look pretty cool now. It actually grew on me. I live in a rural community in Florida. Sunshine is more than abundant and I have acres of open field for solar panels. If someone wrote a prescription for a car, this is the one that would be prescribed for me. With the Aptera, I can use it as a mini pickup. I can easily fit 10 bags of 40 lb. feed easily. I can drive 20 miles to the grocery store and fit all the groceries in the trunk.
As I recall the maximum cargo capacity is a little over 400 pounds including passengers. You will be overloading your car putting your weight and 400 pounds of feed in it. I understand what you are saying. It is more usable than it is given credit for.
@@bryanwhitton1784 Aptera's figure was 500 lbs including driver and passenger.
@@narphizoid OK, I stand corrected. I was working from memory and that is a dangerous practice for me. But to the point, 400 pounds of load plus a 150+ pound driver is over the load limit. I am sure there is a 10 - 20% extra for liability protection but I am not sure it is good to test the limits.
I'm actually looking forward to it being my MAIN mode of transport. If nothing else, to DISRUPT society (AKA wake people up as to how they're living.
Exactly 💯
It would suck in Michigan, in the winter.
@@DetroitMicroSound Give us a break.
@@DetroitMicroSoundThat's okay, everything sucks in Michigan, particularly in the winter. 😀😀😀
Yea, you're pretty wrong about Michigan. Michigan, and the Great Lakes in general is North America's region of the future. My region is also the second most densely populated region in the U.S. and Detroit is on a massive upswing right now.@@wingsounds13
I'm not invested in Aptera Yet, but only because of various money issues. I worked on Solar Cars at UNSW, and always sort of wondered when we would see some kind of thing come out for common use. The Aptera looks a lot like many of the computer models we ran, and I appreciate that sort of design lineage.
Right now I drive a very beat up Honda Insight, and I'm hoping that Aptera gets out their product out before my Insight finally dies in a non-recoverable way. The Aptera will be my first New Car that I've ever bought. It's a very compelling design, and fits well with my needs for transportation. It's the sort of thing I would have designed, given my background in craving low drag coefficient vehicles.
11:00 Re: Engineering Partnerships. To me, Munro Assoc., whose involvement increased success by orders of magnitude, is the primary engineering partner, as they helped facilitate integration of CPC & determined the assembly process, along with incorporating their “Lean Design” concepts into all aspects of Aptera.
The Aptera would be ideal for the following use cases: Pizza/Food Delivery(Door Dash), College Student, Long Range Commuter (need for efficiency to make it practical), Retired Person or Couple, Single People that live in apartments (no place to charge), Multivehicle Family, and Overlander. Please add your favorite use cases below.
The shape might be a hindrance for those uses. The turning radius isn't that great. It's really wide for a small vehicle.
if a family can afford a second car for nipping out or running tasks etc... i think this would be good for them too. Also, so many people feel they need a 5 seater... even single people. I bought an F150 5 years ago and I made sure it was the 4 door to have them extra seats. In 5 years I had people back there once... and that was because I made friends get in to check out my new wheels and took them for coffee.
Midlife crisis sports car
Medical gig deliveries for use in tandem with my FUV. Aptera and Arcimoto FTW !
A good used Chevy Bolt would be better for food delivery and other such gigs than a new Aptera. You'd also save ~$10,000 in the process.
I followed Tesla long enough to disregard people who say new technology is niche. Anything new will be disliked by the majority - at first.
It's a niche vehicle for sure. Tesla tried to be as mainstream as possible in there design. This is a 3 wheeled two seater. Stop comparing this to Tesla or prius because it will lose every time.
Aptera is definitely not a niche vehicle. There is no niche of people that enjoy paying for gasoline, so people that don't want to have to buy gas for their personal vehicle is not a niche either.
@@NAGIUXS With the benefit of 20/20 hindsight, you are thinking that Tesla is not niche. However, everyone said it was niche, even up to a year or so after the Model 3 launched. If we could go together in a time portal to 2015 you would say that Tesla was niche, just like everyone else did.
@juliahello6673 tesla is a car with 4 doors and seats 4 to 5 people, the only thing niche about tesla then was the electric motor, the rodster was definitely a niche vehicle.
Aptera on the other hand is a three wheeled motorcycle that can't accommodate child seats and is not required to have all the safety features mandatory for a car. Aptera is the definition of niche. Most will find this vehicle unique but not attractive.
I like the looks but outside of tech geeks in most surveys people don't consider this vehicle attractive.
We just have to be real with ourselves and have this for ourselves. Market adoption is 50-50 and we should be cool with. If the tesla keeps getting cheaper it will be hard for Aptera and other ev makers to succeed
We all have opinions. Remember you thought that the movement to make tesla the standard charger wasn't a possibility. That didn't age well. My personal experience is mostly I drive alone even though I have a family. Will it be my only car? No. As a 2nd car, it's brilliant.
This would be my second car too, but my first would be an e-bike.
Nearly everyone is in the same boat. With the kids gone and it's just the two of us 90% of the time we're just one or two in the car. It's the 2nd vehicle that will be used to carry the grandkids. I'm thinking the Aptera is a great road trip car. So cheap to drive we can go coast to coast for so little.
The iPhone was dismissed by the likes of Nokia, Blackberry, & Microsoft.
Xerox thought nothing more of the mouse and GUI.
Kodak ignored the viability of digital cameras.
The auto industry was laughed at by horse owners.
Blockbuster thought Netflix was a passing blip on the radar.
If Aptera is “doomed to fail”, it’s in good company.
Intel rejected partnering with Apple on IPhone. I was there when it happened! Later Paul Atellini later said that he regretted rejecting the offer by Apple and he mentioned that his spreadsheet numbers predicted it will not sell well!!
This, I think, is why Fambro and Anthony are insisting on keeping control of the company this time around. @@joeschmoe8563
The average driving range for EVs in the U.S. is 291 miles. And the average new vehicle price is just over $48K, and the average new EV price is over $53K, so the Aptera's value is competitive, just as long as you don't need to carry more than two people. But I will agree with you that over 25K sales per year is ambitious, as the Aptera is not for everyone. But it is a common mistake for people to assume that if you don't build a vehicle that satisfies everyone's needs, there is a no market. Every single automaker worldwide said that electric vehicles could NEVER be built profitably. And they were historically right...before Tesla proved them wrong. And Tesla also proved that the market for EVs was much bigger than the experts claimed, or imagined. I believe that the demand for big SUVs and trucks is artificially inflated by active legacy automaker marketing, designed specifically to drive higher per-vehicle profits. Notice that there are no more "economy cars" for sale anymore (outside of China or India). I also believe that there is a large, untapped market for smaller, more efficient vehicles, like the Aptera. Also even though you correctly mentioned the wheel motors, belly cooling and composite body, you missed the Aptera's onboard solar. This is also a new technology for any mass production vehicle (in the way that hybrids were new). Even though each of these areas are new, and each of them are a potential point of failure, they each add unique value, and attractiveness to the Aptera. Especially for early adopters, which will be the majority of buyers and investors. Also, I respectfully disagree that Aptera needs $50M or $100M to start production. The ATVM loan will be critical to a SPEEDY success, but I think that Aptera can run lean (without the BIG money up front) and successfully start production using the $20M from the Accelerator program, with around $10M more to come once non-accredited investment resumes in a few weeks. But the matching CA grant money combined with ongoing crowd funding investment and the new tax subsidies should be enough for Aptera to first build a small fleet of Delta models. And provide enough funding for complete efficiency, crash, solar, and range testing of the production-intent model. The results of those tests and small scale production should lead to more funding, and scaling up to volume production in mid-2024. Regardless of big investment or the ATVM loan. Which I think will come quickly once small scale Aptera production begins. Hopefully starting in early in 2024.
Yes
An Aptera video I saw last night showed Gamma traversing hills so it appears the cooling issue at the hub motors have been resolved.
This one? th-cam.com/users/shortsar_6RtTmKv8?si=WzVT0NNIqQx6fFR_
Most people are single people driven to and from work. This would be a great vehicle for any company car to run parts or supplies for.
As an early VW owner (1965 and 1966), I also drove the car that no one liked because of its shape. There were all sorts of issues. My insurance agent told me repeatedly that the front fenders were airlifts and would lift the front of my VW off the road at speeds over 50 mph. I was told that the car would never work in extreme cold or heat because of its air-cooled engine. The shape was so strange to the American market at the time. Both worries were wrong. I once started the 1966 VW at -10° F after I swept the snow off that had blown overnight into the engine compartment. I then drove through 11 inches of snow about 6 miles until I reach partially plowed roads. My passenger was my stepfather who hated foreign cars and disliked the VW in particular. I got him to work on time and made my classes as well (I was in graduate school). A year later he had revised his opinion of foreign cars, but not of VW. He bought a Vauxhall Victor because it was water cooled. Too bad. When I bought my VWs there was essentially three models: the Beatle, the Ghia, and the Microbus. I don't see the shape and two seater matters being market breakers for the Aptera. Also, if heating and cooling are handled by a heat pump, the impact on mileage should be trivial.
That's a really good comparison. Unstated is "price". If Aptera can be as relatively affordable as the '65 Beetle, it will convert people to the cause.
😂😂😂😂
Not qualifying for the $7.5K federal tax credit will be a huge obstacle for Aptera.
Not having the $7500 tax credit will be an impediment, but I don't know about huge. This vehicle is unique, and if you want it, you want it. I will buy one with or without any tax credits and I suspect that considerably more than the 43,000 current reservations will as well.
For all of those who don't meet the EV tax credit income limits, Aptera not qualifying for the EV tax credit is meaningless.
Or for those who don't live in the U.S. @@jonj9149
Yea the car will save me more than this anyways. Also personally my primary motivation here is to remove myself from my daily commute needs being tied to fossil fuel or grid costs. This car will get me 85% of where I need to go just being parked outside and a very small supplemental solar setup would take care of the rest in the winter.
thats because of big electric/car manufacturers not wanting efficient cars
Thanks so much for posting your analysis on AOC!
The value you bring is balance between the fan boys and the doubters with your analysis. I believe that is why so many trust you and look forward to your videos on important topics in the EV domain. I also think you provide a valuable service to Aptera that nobody else, to include most of the active ambassadors provide.
I think Aptera is a remarkable product and the Aptera team has done such a great job on a shoe string budget. I so hope they succeed for many reasons. It would be a shame that such an achievement would go unrecognized
Absolutely
Come on! Sales will be over 100k per year! Who doesn't want to drive around for close to free??? No gas or oil bill!
The original VW Bug was an radically different design. They made over 4.5 million. And averaged almost 290K/year from 1960 to 1970.
The Bug was actually an outdated prewar design when first produced.
I grew up in a 1963 Beetle and it seated four. It was perfect for a young family, although with limited storage in the frunk and a little well behind the rear seats. All our camping gear went on the roof and bicycles, or skis on the rear. It got replaced with a Microbus in 1969 when the third kid arrived and the floor pan rusted through.
Maybe Aptera’s second car will be that, but this one would be good for young singles, or empty nest seniors and commuters. Two seater cars are always in a niche.
I specifically asked Aptera if any of the prototypes have had a belly radiator ("skin cooling") and was told that they did not. Gamma has a fiberglass panel that is formed to resemble a belly radiator but it is not. The Beta prototype was fitted with a traditional air-cooled radiator but - so far - it's the only prototype that has a cooling system. And Aptera isn't the first to have a belly radiator (we really need to stop calling it "skin cooling" as the term is misleading): Mercedes has incorporated a belly radiator in its EQXX ultra-long-range vehicle.
I'm a firm believer "Build it and they will come". This vehicle will be an excellent daily driver for short commutes. We spend most of our time in our cars alone. Once this is seen on the street, the interest is going to grow exponentially.
If just 1,500 of the 45,000 people already on the wait list pay it forward and invest the $33,200 now that will eventually be spent on the vehicle, Aptera Motors would have the $50M cash in hand to start production. Shame on us if as a community we can't extend a bridge loan and get this done. Be the change you wish to see in the world.
Investing the money now means we'd have to come up with that amount again after production starts, thus doubling the purchase cost. Investment isn't a "loan" - it's an outright gift to the company, with no guarantee of dividends or other payback.
Although Aptera's promised IPO near the start of production is not guaranteed, but the class B stock could then be sold to complete the transaction.
Something I think many people are missing is there is huge pent up demand for an electric car for apartment dwellers. Look up percentage of the population who live in apartments. Electric cars till now are not usable when there is no plug in sight where we park at night.
Credit for the following description goes to Bruce Nelson. To clarify on Aptera cooling... The production vehicle will have two cooling sources: airflow around the vehicle will remove heat from the exterior of the belly pan, and the air conditioning will either cool the interior side of the belly pan or the cooling liquid directly, as needed. Aptera has not released the particular A/C integration details just yet, due to patent involvement, I believe. The two methods complement each other well... when exterior temperatures and airflow allow, the belly pan will be enough cooling on its own, otherwise the A/C can supplement. When exterior temperatures are higher or no airflow is available (when parked and charging for example) the A/C can be the sole source of cooling.
What Bruce's ideas don't take into consideration is exhausting the waste heat generated by the AC system. A Model 3, for example, can make quite a racket while charging because it spins-up a fan system to blow air through its (almost) belly-mounted radiator to lower the temperature of the battery pack.
@@narphizoid Yes they do. A/C heat is exhausted out the tail of the vehicle on either side of the license plate. This has been the plan all along.
@@DemaGeekDoes that mean it has got a radiator at the rear then ? If so, how does outside air get to it ?
@@AutoTeknix1 The exterior surface of the belly pan is the radiator with integral cooling tubes on its interior side. If additional cooling is needed, intake air can enter from the windshield wiper area at the base of the windshield to flow across the interior of the belly pan, continuing to exit the body at the rear on either side of the license plate. This is also how the air conditioning purges its heat. The A/C can also supplement cooling at anytime needed, or do the whole job if the vehicle is parked with no airflow over the belly at all.
I would say at best 50k a year in sales. That would easily sustain them. But I think you are right about 10k a year once things settles down after the initial rush of the reservation holders.
600,000 is the potential sales per year. That just counts what could be sold if the convinced everyone of those customers to buy Aptera instead of what they would normally buy. It is Aptera's job to sell as many vehicles in that market as they can.
Correct. This is from a general business education. Aptera has identified their "market," the pool of annual unit buyers that are potential Aptera customers. No company expects to achieve 100% market share. But this type of information shows the size of the pool they are playing in. A new entry into a market shoots for low single digit "share" of a market when they enter it and grow that share over time.
The niche of aptera expands as the price is kept low and the self-charging range is extended. It's an easy second car that way, for the stay-at-home spouse to run errands while the kids are at school or run a kid to the doctor/dentist appointment or the retiree spouse. Low enough price and people may get them as a backup vehicle -- say the ICE is stuck at the dealer for parts and repairs and it's a whole lot easier to have your own backup vehicle. People will get over styling for cost.
I found this video hilarious for several reasons, but the most interesting one was when you said that Aptera is being overly optimistic because it looks weird. There is absolutely a very strange looking vehicle that has over a million pre-orders that everybody apparently hates the look of first name, cyber last name, truck I think... At any rate, thank you for the video!
Shout out to anyone who has a reservation on both! (Cybertruck and Aptera)
I wonder if the Tesla star power has anything to do with it's numbers. Ya, CT is different and clunky looking to me... but also somehow rad and tough in a futuristic way. Aptera seems more cutesy and almost feminized to me. I still want one, tho! I love the tech and the futuristic look it has.
To be clear guys, I'm not necessarily a cyber truck fan personally because I do not need the utility that vehicle offers. I just need a daily commuter which is why I have an Aptera on reservation. If I do end up needing a hauler later on in life, cyber truck is definitely something I would consider though.
Cybertruck can sell well because it's in the best- selling segment of vehicles in America.
@@jamesengland7461 sure, but the best selling vehicle in the world is a Toyota Corolla. (3nd best selling segment in the U.S.)
Aptera, delivered in 2019 would have rocked the world. In 2024, at $40 000 usd, it will have direct competition with ev's at $50,000 usd and down. (With incentives)
If they drop the sale price under $30,000 usd, it will be fine. Still not great, as a base M3 will cost the same after incentives.
If tesla announces the M2 in 2025 with a $25,000 usd base price... that will eat into Aptera sales. Especially if built in Mexico and getting 7500 incentives
Totally agree... they are too late to market. Electric cars are getting cheaper and I fear the Aptera will be too expensive to compete with a 25k Tesla model 2
@@RedPowerStation Aptera is not a cheap vehicle but for specific use cases its specs crush the competition. If the government either includes them in incentives or scales down incentives then Aptera is priced very well and has huge advantages.
I would love to see EV incentives replaced with a simple 10% tax on new ICE vehicles (encourages EVS, ebikes, commuting, carpooling, transit etc); because only impacts new vehicles it doesn't hurt lower class that can't afford new vehicles like carbon/gas taxes. Not gonna happen but it makes far more sense than current complex programs with all the loopholes, exceptions, administration costs and interpretations (IRA battery rules / leasing loophole are a F%$@ mess)
None of the competition will have a vehicle that features free, wireless celestial charging. Not even a Tesla Model 2 will make it's own fuel. No one else is even close, because no one else will be as efficient. No gas, oil, or even a plug. How much is that worth, incentives or not?
@@barnabasseadog7660 Unfortunately Aptera won't have sentry mode, is a prime vandalism target and even if it had sentry mode that would use more power than the solar gathers. Tesla's sentry mode implementation uses 250-300 w which adds up to an insane 2.6 MWH per year. This is why I plan to park it in the garage; efficiency is enough - solar does not need to define the vehicle; without it Aptera is a EV sports car with storage, long range, and right to repair approach.
@barnabasseadog7660 a little objective math.
if aptera averages 30 miles/ day or 11000 "free" miles per year and drives 20 000 miles per year... only 9000 miles are bought thru charging. If it gets 10 miles /kwh, that's only 900 kwh. At off peak rates of 15 cents/kwh that's $135 in annual fuel cost.
If competition gets 4miles /kwh the same 20,000 miles uses 5000kwh. At the same 0.15/kwh it costs $750 annually. Or $615 more than an aptera.
It's not that great of an advantage compared to a small light EV. UNLESS you live in a place where you cant charge overnight. Like an apartment. EA average is 0.50/kwh. The EV cost then is 2300 more per year.
It's the perfect commuter vehicle
I think you are overlooking the potential for fleet vehicle sales and international sales outside the US where gas prices are much higher and there is less interest in SUVS, Minivans, and Trucks. I think there is a huge upside for sales figures much more than Mazda Miata, or Toyota Prius where these are not used as fleet vehicles. Aptera is truly a new paradigm in transportation and the style will be easily adopted when people experience the practicality of this innovative vehicle.
The cargo capacity is 32 ft.³ not 25 ft.². Volume is always given in three dimensions, not two.
I consider the 600,000 sales number to be a long-term goal, not out-of-the-gate sales. Aptera plans to eventually design and offer vehicles with more seating , more wheels, etc. And hub motors are NOT a new thing since there were vehicles in the early 1970s that had hub motors. Of course they were built by Boeing at a cost of $38,000,000 each! Did you see the Aptera video released on the 28th showing the Gamma climbing to a 1,600' scenic overlook: th-cam.com/video/ar_6RtTmKv8/w-d-xo.html
The way the numbers were laid out it looked like they were talking the normal Aptera. I don't know how motorcycles have any impact on the future 4 door Aptera.
Aptera took advantage of bringing Munro Associates onboard early in the design and manufacturing process. This gives them a definitive edge towards success.
Arcimoto did the same thing. They are in production and so far this year, sales are up 30%. They sold 102 new and used ones so far this year.
Voices on the internet are non-sene...Aptera is actually what the large percentage of US households need...look at the data here:
Conducted by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), the NHTS is the authoritative source on the travel behavior of the American public. FHWA has launched the Next-Generation National Household Travel Survey (NextGen NHTS) to establish a more continuous travel monitoring program with national and local data products. In addition to the probabilistic core travel survey, NextGen NHTS also includes an origin-destination (OD) data program that produces multimodal passenger and truck travel OD tables at the national and local levels from passively collected data sources.
My meter is the expert opinion of Sandy Munro. Sandy feels the market is moving to smaller, more efficient vehicles, and he is very excited about Aptera. Sandy is excited enough about the market opportunity of Aptera to invest in the company... this speaks volumes to me!
He probably gets kickback for being a top supporter. Also, he's not some sort of god. The man can be completely wrong, too.
@@DetroitMicroSoundyou're right he's not a god......but he is the goat of mechanical engineers
We'll find out if he's right or wrong, eventually. Unfortunately I don't agree with him on Aptera. The car needs 4 wheels, and better ground clearance around the wheels, even if you have to push a button to raise the wheel cowlings/fenders, a few inches when approaching roads with any uneven surfaces.@@ronnw8153
@@DetroitMicroSound He is a thermal engineer who designed cooling systems on the space station. What are your qualifications?
@@DetroitMicroSound Bruce is a volunteer ambassador for Aptera, he is not employed by them and does not receive incentives or kick-backs.
I really like the looks of this vehicle; but I think they need to sacrifice a wee-bit of efficiency, and raise the wheel covers to expose more tire, in order to better handle mud, snow, and potholes.
Continuing my VW comparison. The 1964 VW had a price of $1599 including destination and dealer prep fees. The price was non-negotiable. I was in the showroom in 1964 when a middle-aged couple came in to look at the cars. After about 20 minutes they approached the salesman and the man offered the VW salesman $1299. His response was (and I remember his words still today), "If you want a VW coupe, the price is $1599. If you want to haggle over the price of a new coupe, there's a Ford dealer just up the street who would probably be delighted to see you." The man looked insulted and his female companion was wide-eyed. Without a further word, they turned around and quickly left.
The 1965 VW coupe had the same price. Adjusting for inflation, $1599 in 1965 had the same purchasing power as $15,448 today. The 1965 VW was a basic car with a sole safety feature being a lap belt (those were optional on most domestic cars). It had a 6 volt, positive ground electrical system, vacuum-powered windshield wipers,, an AM radio, drum brakes, a convective heat/defrost system that needed the car to be in motion to work, The windshield washer worked from a pressurized fluid reservoir. The car was powered by a 40-horsepower, four-cylinder, 1.2-liter aluminum-magnesium engine, which was linked to a four-speed manual transmission. The gas mileage was 22 mpg, its gas tank held 12.5 gallons, giving it a range of 275 miles. It's top speed was 79 mph, its acceleration time from 0 to 60 mph was 33 seconds. Thus, a simple comparison of inflation-adjusted prices for the 1965 VW coupe to that of the Launch Edition Aptera is not appropriate. Most of the technology in the Aptera didn't exist, was science and engineering fiction, or considered to be way to expensive ever be put in a car.
It is not a family car but a motorcycle is not a family bike either. If I have a choice of driving on a 1000 mile trip I'd take the Aptera because it would cost next to nothing compared to even my Prius Prime. Plus I'm sure it would also be fun which is not something to expect when you take your normal car.
As a person who loves efficiency, I really hope this comes the market. Personally, I don’t need more than two seats and I think the Aptera looks amazing. The only thing that I am hesitant about with the design is that I wonder how much of a bump the front wheel covers can handle before they scrape. I’ve got a large curb in my driveway and I have my doubts about those wheel covers.
GEN X, Y, and Z, generally don’t travel in large groups. One person and a friend, one person and one child or one person and a pet. Perfect for the Aptera! No one vehicle will serve all transportation needs. Aptera will do just fine in their groove!!!
I’m also looking at the full time RV crowd as a market. I feel that once people see and learn more about Aptera new markets will open up.
An Aptera dingy that can also be your boondocking power source would be the dream!
That’s me, i’ll be towing it behind the RV on a trailer, unless they figure out out how to charge the batteries towing it with the wheels on the ground.
Agree this would be a good market segment for Aptera BUT EV can't be flat towed and an AWD one can't be dolly towed due to the regenerative braking. Probably even worse when you move to hub motors
Aptera's extreme uniqueness is the best argument for their survival. If it was yet another SUV they would have zero chance of succeeding, the world is full of electric SUVs, no startup can enter the SUV market no matter how well funded. They will have the only Jetsons car and it's a small enough niche that they don't have to worry about anyone else entering the space
This is at best a 10000 car per year product but the way they've designed it they should be able to build them profitably at a few thousand per year run rate.
The thing that will kill them is money. If they can't raise the money to go into production they will die.
If VW can sell 21,000,000 bugs, there’s Aptera can surely sell 50-100,000/yr
I think many criticisms made by Echo are valid in the current energy/transportation environment that we are in and have been in. The world is going to have to make some dramatic and perhaps painful decisions about how we move along the surface of the planet and what energy source we use to do that. If gasoline prices double or triple, if the grid shudders under the strain of new EVs then the place for Aptera will change. As far as styling goes, tastes change. An Aptera might one day look at commonplace as a VW bug.
Well over 1 million Miatas have been sold, first of all. Also, when I show people an Aptera many of them say hell no, and then I tell them it's solar powered and probably won't need charging, and then they say hell yes. The Miata has very poor storage space, an Aptera doesn't, among many other reasons why Aptera vehicles should sell quite well.
It may be niche but it's incredible an awesome
Nice review. Two thoughts on details:
-- cabin heating and cooling may be less of a load than people think. Better-than-normal sealing will be possible with the simple composite body and that's a big part of HVAC load. And heat conduction through composite is far less than through metal. Also, there is relatively little glass, especially with the solar hatch. That matters.
-- "skin" cooling. I do not think ANY of the Aptera prototypes have a cooling system representative of the production vehicle. I believe the liquid-to-air heat exchanger will be an aluminum plate that will constitute the bottom of the car, not the composite skin like the non-beta prototypes have. I have faith that such an arrangement will be able to have ample margin, considering the relatively small heat loads Aptera will impose. However, the whole system will be complex, with motors, inverters, battery, and interior cooling/heating. Digital modeling in this area is pretty good, but convincing proof requires accurate physical prototypes.
I think the Echo Electric video got a lot more right than wrong. It should be concerning that Aptera’s reservations have somewhat petered out in the last few months. I, personally, think the grandiose business plans worrying about how to supply major volumes could jeopardize their ability just to get into production. As time goes on, I can’t help but to acknowledge that FOMO on some of the new cars coming out on the market is setting in. Aptera is due for another update as it has been a while, and I am hoping there is more marked progress.
Such a great vehicle for efficient transportation. I am in the mid west and ordered mine 3 years ago with investment too, and this is a long wait. I was worried they would burn up money fast with the many prototype phases. I have spent time in Europe, and this will sell very well there. Hope there are some European investors that ordered an Aptera. Perhaps they should have an assembly plant in Europe too, since major parts are sourced over there.
The only way guys like me will buy the Aptera is to be able to test drive it and then like how it feels and drives.. When a vehicle is breaking new ground in looks and such and will set you back $30K or so it only makes sense that you need to sit in it and drive it. Personally I think that once it gets out there and proves itself in terms of how cheap it is to drive and people get used to its strange looks then they will want to see what all the fuss is about. I don't think Aptera is speculating that this one model of theirs is going to sell 600,000 units per year. I think they are looking ahead a other models that include 4 wheel, 5 passenger vehicles.
Post-sale service seems like the biggest hurdle to me. At least that's what gives me the most pause about carrying through with my order (if I ever get the chance).
Steve, I think (hope) the reason they don’t have enough capital to move forward into production is because they are waiting for the federal energy loan, which would be relatively cheap and not come with the risk of losing control of the company like what happened before.
Apple had the concept that you should not offer people what they are buying, but rather to offer something that they don't know that they need yet. Some of the sales are projected to be as a second vehicle.
Love Aptera's concept. Wishing them the best.
"It is a very unusual looking vehicle." - Your basis for categorizing the Aptera as a "niche" market vehicle based upon aesthetics seems pretty flawed to me. "wouldn't be caught dead in one" can change to "would love to show off my new" in pretty short order whereas the utility of an Aptera isn't nearly as fleeting. Needing to commute every day, lack of availability of charging at one's home location, a 2 person family, feeling driven to be part of the solution to climate change, saving money on fuel, etc. These functional/utility attributes tend to last years if not decades and will surely win over many with an initial knee-jerk reaction to Aptera's looks.
Great video! 😃👍
I think the main problem with Aptera is money… it's a little too expensive compared to a more traditional Model 3 with a $7500 tax credit, and as you mentioned… Aptera needs more money to produce the vehicle.
It's strange. If people want a cleaner environment, isn't this the best vehicle on the horizon to combat that problem? And even if you're not worried about that, what about national security? Wouldn't it be better for the grid to have an Aptera in every backyard? It seems like a great prepper vehicle.
So, why isn't more money being thrown at Aptera? I just read something about $12 billion for US EV automakers and suppliers. Does that include Aptera? 🤷🏻♂
Ironically I am in 4 of those groups of market buyers & I love the shape.
I backed it into a basketball goal and it cracked the back glass and dented the hatch.
The product speaks for itself.
I'm confident that Aptera can sell at least 1 M vehicles (total) over the next ten years. That is still a very small % of the over all car market and very much a niche product but like Steve said plenty enough to build a profitable business. They'll be able to sell all that they can make for at least five years.
An Aptera is not as unusual looking as a Tesla Cybertruck.
Wow, that's a tough one. I think the Aptera is somewhat more unique. I think if I saw a Cybertruck on the road, I think… "Ah, it's finally on the road." Seeing an Aptera probably would be a more interesting experience. That rear wheel makes it look like the car is floating.
So imagine you live in LA with huge traffic jams and plenty of sunshine. Aptera MUST appeal to you in that case. It is being charged while you are waiting in the traffic! It is less expensive that ANY other ICE cars around. You can drive in the HOV lane! So the appeal is there, and waiting for folks to see, understand and then follow their own interest. Most of the cars stuck in traffic carry no more than two passnegers! So I would say the market is huge.
I think it may become the pickup truck replacement for workers that need a great hand power tool carrying vehicle with solar on the rear hatch blocking the trunk view and keeping lithium tool batteries protected from sun heat and that charging power outlet. Driving to a work site often a fair distance will work out perfectly.
I’d like to toss around the idea of making a three-seater configuration, with the driver positioned dead center, two seats either side slightly staggered behind, made compromisingly narrow, like what you might see in a McLaren. Cool. This would be a driver’s car, after all.🌿🐇 (generation 2 Aptera, with [low-cost] interior modifications only. Still a sports-car/commuter, but then able to pack in two passengers.)🗿
Cool idea...I think getting into and out of that center seat might be a problem though.
Unsurprisingly those who implicitly suggest that the Aptera had to look like an ordinary car (aka "brick") in order to have enough market acceptance will not disappear quicker than those who ages ago wouldn't build think of building a motorcar that didn't look like a horse carriage.
The fact that so many EVs look like ICEVs, with a huge long hood up front, represents a failure of imagination by the designers and a lost opportunity to fully exploit the advantages of electric propulsion.
@@robertkirchner7981 I agree, albeit at least to a certain degree a long hood could of course be used to improve aerodynamics (to not end up like a shoe box with rounded cornes like Canoo did). But legacy and even most new automakers don't even do that.
This is why I can't express how glad I am that Aptera is around!
@2:35 Aptera doess't expect to sell 600K units, only 10K. The 600,000 units/year marketsize does not mean they expect to sell 600,000 units (unless they aim for a monopoly). Marketsize denotes the total number of customers expected to be interested in the type of product. If Aptera quotes a marketsize of 600K and a projected sales of 10K, they anticipate a marketshare of 17%.
I have no idea whether a marketsize of 600,000 u/yr or a marketshare of 17% are realistic, just trying to educate how those terms are used in startups
I want mine last year. I really hope they make it. I've started buying a lotto ticket once a week with the goal of being that halo investor.
Aptera is ideally suited for retirement communities throughout the US, I am on the list with it and a cyber truck. So the numbers are way bigger than you think!
The finiancing is the crutial issue all of the others can be worked out,
I have a concern and hope other will chime in.
Aptera told us that when they raise 20,000,000 in the Leaderboard they will start production in 8 month to one year.
What you are saying they need billions befor they start production. Are you just wrong or was we lied to???? 😢
Well for me , I'm buying this car for road trips, I've never traveled much and I'm old and this is my big chance .
I'm thinking the same thing, As a retired trucker, I'll betcha it's gonna be real nice when the old back gets stiff to get out, stretch, and lay down in the back for a snooze. The more you drive this thing the more you save! All they need now is a set of inflatable pontoons so we could take it fishing!
@@edbruder9975 well it's certainly light enough for those pontoons to attach to the three wheels , then the front wheels would sit in two separate floating devices, and when you activated the front wheels it would cause some sort of paddle wheels to move the car forward and also to turn . Yes I can see this as an after market device .
The "potential market" is not a sales figure - it is an indication of the size of the market that Aptera is trying to sell to. For example, the 'potential market' for pedal bikes is maybe 3 billion. But a new bike model is not going to sell 3 billion, it will be a tiny fraction of that, because there are other bikes on the market, people don't want to buy right now, etc etc.
600k market size is absolutely tiny. That number is a clear statement that Aptera recognise it is selling into a niche.
I am skeptical about Aptera, but not because I think the market size is small. If they do a good job and get this car into our hands, this would be the 2nd commuter for a lot of "normal people".
The reason I'm skeptical about Aptera is the founders can NOT deliver. They are taking a full salary and spending all of their time raising funds for a "solar mobility" car (which "over screams promise under deliver"), instead of just getting a super efficient EV into the hands of people who want a 2nd car for commuting to work and getting groceries.
Just ship the damn thing and find out. If you don't ship you fail by default.
(Also, I could invest in Aptera $30,000, but I've held off so far. My reason is I don't like a CEO who is taking a full salary but doesn't show any urgency to ship even a beta car. You don't take a salary until you ship cars. And you should be shipping "beta" cars right now!!!! There isn't any excuse not to)
Aptera is a must for ppl that live in Apartments and Condo Complexes as many are not allowed to charge at their places of residence.
Those able to park outdoors will be charged by the sun.
For me, as for many ppl, I only need a 2 seater for over 95% of my driving.
I think the Aptera's width is actually going to be a fairly significant problem for most people. It's a foot and a half wider than most cars and CUVs and wider than even huge luxury SUVs. The only non-commercial vehicles that are wider are dualie trucks. I'm an investor and I hope they succeed, but I get the idea that most of the Aptera team are not really car people and there would've been a big benefit to having a real car person on the development team.
The factors highlighted in the video are those that I consider influential at the system level that affect the probability of Aptera being a consistent "Going concern" many of which Aptera has little or no control over. After looking at the comments on the forum (So far) most commenters are still down in the nits (trees - features etc.) rather than considering or analyzing the systemic factors. (The forest) I am hoping that Aptera and others are cognizant of these factors and at some level, tactical, operational, or strategic, are working to counter then as much as possible. Some time, it is just a roll of the dice that leads to success or failure.
Too expensive for a two seater 3-wheel vehicle. They should simplify this and drop the price significantly. Like, by half.
That video raised some fair points, all of which you expertly answered, Steve. Well done, as always.
I love everything but the skin cooling, I think they should have a slot underneath where the aluminum pan is supposed to be and the air exit out the back where the taillights are located .
EVs generate very, very little heat except while DC charging so their cooling needs are minimal.
@@narphizoid Thanks , I didn't know that .
I still stand on the hill that if they made a 5 seater and made it for ridesharing and rental first it would have been best 40 mile of range on a top of a parking garage getting 40 miles of range a day in ideal conditions. kept it as a autocycle for less wear.
Shouldn't all the environmentalists be falling all over themselves to buy one? Put your money where your mouth is or pipe down.
Actually, public transportation and e-bikes would be more environmentally valuable! It's the efficiency that makes the Aptera as private transportation more valuable as long as the highway systems are maintained.
@@dennisroe5178 Also a pipe dream. We are car centric. Public transportation is expensive to build and maintain. And it is covered in . . . public. The infrastructure for private vehicles is already in place.
Obviously a niche vehicle, but it's in several niches at the same time. I just do not think people know the full extent of the vehicles capabilities and how it can upgrade ones quality of life. Everything depends on producing these first two thousand Launch Editions. Everything else falls into place once Aptera starts delivering. Chris Anthony has said he expects the path to profitability by end of 2024. It all hinges on the ATVM loan. I can still happen, Apteras success is still in play.
Polaris Slingshot sales are about 5000 a year (Aptera has it beat in every way). So looking at MX-5, Slingshot, and the other 2 seater sales etc.. My feeling is 15000 a year. Price will also play heavly into this number. Hopefully we will get see how this all plays out.
Where I live in New Westminster BC Canada most families have more than one vehicle. I walk a lot and see a lot of cars, most with only a driver. An Aptera would be perfect for me but I don't know if I could bring it into Canada and have no idea how much the insurance wouid be. I get my electricity from a community solar installation so charging is not problem. Fingers crossed.
Great, honest critique! A few qualifiers… 1. Niche - SHORT-TERM (3-5y) then same design principles applied to 4-wheel, 4-seater = success even in crowded market. 4. Tech/Manufacturing - smart approach & more risk NOT innovating (emulating mediocrity would guarantee failure); 6. Finance - If/when safety & performance is VERIFIED the funding will appear instantly.
I think there are specific markets that will live good vehicle, and you did touch on them. I own a currier/delivery business and this is the ultimate vehicle for that. Even the small battery unit would work for my fleet needs. Additionally, there are thousands of people that camp/road trip out of their prius because there is enough room to sleep in it and the battery can be used to power things and use the climate controls for cold/hot nights, plus the efficiency of course. The added efficiency and even the small solar panels makes this even better than a prius in that regard.
I'm looking forward to getting mine both for work and for recreation.
the avg range is by vehicle model not by sold vehicles which would be more accurate of what customers more want.
I believe that after crash testing that investors will be more willing to let go off their money, so let's hope that happens soon!
I wonder if the pie chart was their guess of the possible customers in each category so it’s a fraction of the total population. Now there could unfortunately be overlap between several categories as well which is a bad thing.
Design is good for that volume, this is the future. . I work in sales and drive everyday alone. I have ordered one. Our family has 4 Tesla cars since 2014.
You can point out that they plan to design and produce 4 and 6 passenger vehicles down the road. I assume they will have good high efficiency but not as good as the 2 person version.
One of the better videos on the viability of Aptera. Thanks!
I think the 600,000 units per year was misunderstood. Aptera is not stating they can sell that many in a year. They are stating the current market that the Aptera fits into is currently selling 600,000 cars per year. The "market" is defined by the breakdown (2 passenger, efficient, 3 wheel, etc). Aptera is only planning a production capacity of 10,000 units per year, in a market that demands 600,000 units per year. One way to look at it is, at full production, Aptera is trying to take their 1.66% of the pie (10k/600k). If each Aptera sells for 30k, then that's 300 million in production per year, not too shabby.
I watched that video that you are responding to in full, both parts. It is click bait. It had an AI voice over, and was otherwise created by someone under the age of 9. The full purpose of the video was to drive donations to the kid who has medical issues referenced in the start of the video. I say 9, though maybe 7 would be more accurate, all of the comparisons are to action toys.
What's the sales volume of the Smart4Two?
I bet when the public sees the “Final Design” on the roads…interest and sales will skyrocket. It only took a few hours of research for me to jump in and make a reservation.😊🌞⚡️⚡️⚡️⚡️ Whats the status on the “Skin Cooling” system?