I think you start wheat port game 2, you knew his only win condition was the wheat port, so securing it first forces him to play a no port with high wheat start, you also start 2 wheat which can be either a brick or a wood, so rolling either gives you the plow to the 10 4 5
Exactly was I was about to comment. If you do that, you have 95% of chances to plow him and, most importantly, you kill his vital winning condition which if the wheat port.
True, but feels like a bit of a hindsight play, after 5 rolls the probability of rolling at least one 9 (1 - (32/36)^5 --> 44.507%) is over 30% more likely than at least three 8's or 6's rolling (cumulative binomial probability where N=5, x=3, p=10/36 --> 13.495%), which seem like reasonable odds to take (not to mention balanced dice favouring us even more)
Not to be critical and also a bit of hindsight, but you built 2 roads and then bought the dev which turned out to be the road builder. If you buy your devs first it usually informs what you do next. A bit unfortunate that you could have saved some cards
Sometimes it feels like you are believing that dice probababilities are dependent on past rolls. From a mathematical point of view this is not true. Chances for rolling e.g. an 8 is always exactly 5/36. No matter which numbers rolled in the past. So chances for rolling 8 / 8 / 8 is the same as 8 / 8 / 6.
If anyone knows the weighting of these 'balanced dice' pls share. I'd be interested to know how the probabilities change as rolls are made. (+if there is an easy way to work this out in game would be useful). Certainly if you've rolled 3x early 7's and your opponent hasn't rolled any, I've noticed that it becomes extremely likely for them to roll a few 7s. That one is obvious and useful to take into account for building first settlement vs extra roads/devs. I do think ThePhantom occasionally blocks low probability numbers slightly too often, like 3 or 11 (with this probability of previous rolls in mind) - but he's a pretty dangerous player to face overall in any case ;)
Random freeze around minute 16, don't panic
I panicked 😂
Nice
Just got into 1v1 this month and been watching all your content to learn. Keep it up.
I think you start wheat port game 2, you knew his only win condition was the wheat port, so securing it first forces him to play a no port with high wheat start, you also start 2 wheat which can be either a brick or a wood, so rolling either gives you the plow to the 10 4 5
Exactly was I was about to comment. If you do that, you have 95% of chances to plow him and, most importantly, you kill his vital winning condition which if the wheat port.
True, but feels like a bit of a hindsight play, after 5 rolls the probability of rolling at least one 9 (1 - (32/36)^5 --> 44.507%) is over 30% more likely than at least three 8's or 6's rolling (cumulative binomial probability where N=5, x=3, p=10/36 --> 13.495%), which seem like reasonable odds to take (not to mention balanced dice favouring us even more)
Not to be critical and also a bit of hindsight, but you built 2 roads and then bought the dev which turned out to be the road builder.
If you buy your devs first it usually informs what you do next. A bit unfortunate that you could have saved some cards
I know you won game one, but with no port you built a 3rd city as opposed to 2 devs when you didn’t have army and no knights in hand.
phantom needs to stop buying the 3rd city when devs are an option.
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Sometimes it feels like you are believing that dice probababilities are dependent on past rolls. From a mathematical point of view this is not true. Chances for rolling e.g. an 8 is always exactly 5/36. No matter which numbers rolled in the past. So chances for rolling 8 / 8 / 8 is the same as 8 / 8 / 6.
not true with 'balanced dice' mechanic here.
@sunmoonbanana - oh my fault. Missed that balanced dices are in use.
If anyone knows the weighting of these 'balanced dice' pls share. I'd be interested to know how the probabilities change as rolls are made. (+if there is an easy way to work this out in game would be useful). Certainly if you've rolled 3x early 7's and your opponent hasn't rolled any, I've noticed that it becomes extremely likely for them to roll a few 7s. That one is obvious and useful to take into account for building first settlement vs extra roads/devs.
I do think ThePhantom occasionally blocks low probability numbers slightly too often, like 3 or 11 (with this probability of previous rolls in mind) - but he's a pretty dangerous player to face overall in any case ;)
so why did he not extend his road i swear this guy plays this game so stupid at times