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A new theory proposed by Richard Godfrey in late 2021 claims to know exactly where the vanished Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 is. MH370 vanished in 2014 and has not been found to date. Its disappearance remains one of the greatest aviation mysteries. All that investigators know so far is that it crashed somewhere off the coast of australia in the southern indian ocean.
Other MH370 video: • Where is MH370? An Upd...
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MH370: New Theory Claims To Know Exactly Where It Is
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How did you find this video? Did TH-cam present it to you or did you find it through a website?
Originally TH-cam recommendation, and now ongoing in 'Home' recommendations feed because I'm subscribed.
TH-cam recommendation feed
TH-cam recommendation, without a subscription I've watched other videos on the channel, and also other airplane related videos.
I was watching another plane video and popped up
Man, you fast! lol
Seems like the range accuracy of radio tracking could be easily verified using any targeted aircraft flying a relatively similar, but verifiable flight path. Very interesting find.
The engineer says elsewhere that the technique has been used on known flight routes and has been very accurate.
Apparently he has done this 4 tines with excellent results
@@gravyboat2370 I would like to see him do it dozens of times (but I have no right to demand that, since I have no idea how difficult or expensive it is to do that).
@@jeffbenton6183 maybe there is no need to. He Has udder other Information into the formula like tides, weather and debris drift so I imagine it takes some time. Hopefully we will soon find out.
you can just simulate that, no need to actually do it lol
This is fascinating research. I do hope the crash is found. I can't stop thinking about the passengers and crew, what they went through and the families left behind.
I'm kind of hoping that odd holding pattern the plane went through was to slowly bring the cabin oxygen levels down, so the passengers were unconscious or dead for the rest of the flight and crash. Hopeful thinking.
It is exploded then disintegrated. Nothing to find. Nothing left from this plane nor passengers.
@@cherylmockotr i dont think all of them would have been dead .
It hit the water and was destroyed upon impact. Debris has been found already
@@marriah you know it was because of a woman he did this . so selfish.
This absolutely needs to be peer reviewed before someone starts another costly search. I had no idea that there is this invisible spider web of radio signals around the globe, that can detect aircraft. The alleged trajectory of the plane suggests that someone was in control, and that the plane wasn't just flying south over the ocean for hours on autopilot. It really makes you wonder if one of the pilots had gone off the deep end; as likely an explanation as any I've heard. Regardless of how this all works out, this is a very interesting video, and well presented.
"peer reviewed " doesn't mean S*** these days.
"DEF CON 26 - Svea, Suggy, Till - Inside the Fake Science Factory"
th-cam.com/video/ras_VYgA77Q/w-d-xo.html
Even better than peer review here, would be a test flight over the southern Indian Ocean. If Godfrey can calculate the flight path without being told it, then that would serve as an excellent validation of his method, and the cost would be a rounding error compared to starting a new search.
@@HydrogenAlpha = It would also cost an airplane, but they could use one that was retired and ready to be scrapped. This would be a good final use for such a plane, and no person put in danger if it was done by remote control.
@@hiredgun0551 I don't think they mean crash it. Just fly a large airliner across the area on a random flight path during a prearranged time period. Tell him about when the place will pass through, then see if he program matches the flight plan filed. No need to crash, and could be done in conjunction with a maintenance flight or something not requiring paid passengers.
@@Plaprad Yup - that's what I meant. No airplanes were harmed in the making of this test. :-)
A double blind study with Whisper and a test aircraft at similar distances could absolutely be the best way to test the theory.
The fact he immediately talks about methodology coming up ASAP makes it even more sketchy. Like he’s trying to make his theory make sense now he came close to a viable point. Why indeed not wait a bit until you wrote about methodology? I doubt that is the longest paragraph , having written these papers myself in my field of study.
I think he knows people are still working in it and just wanted to be the first one to put it out there as it would likely give him some good recognition, at least in the research field and aviation field.
But first doesn’t always mean known for… as we’ve seen with the lightbulb being appointed to Edison and not his rival who had actually made the lightbulb before Edison did-but made improvements. In fact Edison was more an improvement kind of guy than an inventor or new stuff. Still good but he was not the inventor of the lightbulb. So this rushing of putting out the paper kind of prematurely without it being properly written and people can review it may actually end up into people making fun of him; especially if the wreck isn’t found. I’m curious if he’s right though!
It wouldn't even require test aircraft. All you'd need is some radar feeds from the area (to establish actual routes of aircraft) and then use the same method to track other planes. Compare the two and you have your proof.
This has already been done - there is anothet paper by Godfrey where he shows how accurate his method is (he tracked a Qantas plane from Samoa to Sydney, I believe)
@@AirspaceVideos Godfrey has reported at least four tracked flights. On an S&R mission flight he was given the ADS-B tracking info, and only needed to confirm it. He of course confirmed it, even surprising himself by being able to track the plane every two minutes when it was flying just a few hundred feet above the ocean. All of this, of course, from random contacts between ham stations on the opposite side of the globe. On the "blind" flights, he was given a departure time, location, aircraft info (cargo), and destination country. It's surprising how much can be extrapolated from from that. A better blind test for the null hypothesis would be to give Godfrey the wrong date for a tracked flight, or a completely fictional flight. Given his methods, he should still produce a "pinpointed" flight track.
no. use it to test existing paths
Hard to think that an aircraft of a small size compared to the distances involved could create such a clear signal to be tracked. Also the path drawn seems overly accurate compared to the uncertainty error one should expect...the guy needs to publish his methodology and his data for peer review before anyone can take this seriously.
In science, usually when someone seems to be overly sure of something, they are, in fact, less sure. Scientists expect error bars with something like this.
I haven't read the paper. Perhaps he has listed the error bars there, but they showed what seems to be a highly accurate track.
He did say we should search an area, rather than a point. Perhaps this data is not as precise as it seems.
Was that track shown made by him, or did someone take his data and animate it? I haven't read the paper, so he could say accurate to within however many miles/kilometers. Then, whoever animated it just went with the data without the error added to make it look pretty.
I animated the track. The track in the paper looks even cleaner...
@@AirspaceVideos if he included am accuracy estimate / standard deviation or some such in the paper, then it would be useful to show the "track" as a wider swathe rather than a clean line.
Prolly a quack.
As a member of the amateur radio community I am very proud of the many amazing technical achievements coming from it the past years. While this particular "preliminary" paper does not have his specific method of processing the wspr data, enough information is there really for anyone knowledgeable in the technical arts to repeat what he did. The weak signal methods that has been developed by the community is stunning and exciting. It uses the very latest in signal processing. Amateurs are literally pulling signals out of complete noise. So whether it is plausible or not it is very possible he may have cracked the case.
I have always thought that the plane would be found in an area already searched, the reason sadly because the plane probably hit the water at an angle to cause it to break into so many small pieces that it could not be differentiated from the deep surroundings which it lay.
I also think that with this narrowing it's quite possible that other methods, perhaps some also exotic, might be used to pinpoint the location of MH370 even further.
Amateurs have been doing other amazing things such as bouncing signals off from distant meteors, the moon, and doing radio astronomy before most knew that there was such a thing.
very interesting, thanks!
Yep, the idea behind it also is used in passive radar technology, as in the VERA-E and Hensoldt TwinVis
As a member of the amateur radio community, I am calling this total BS.
@@kf3en There are skeptics and indeed the results need to be reproducible. But I've seen a lot of weird stuff so I don't think this can be dismissed out of hand. And it might be investigated using other planes/stations. I think they'll need to find other evidence before sending ships. The idea that the plane fell on a steep slope missed by searchers is quite plausible. I'm not sure what you can find two miles down.
As a member of; saying “As a member” community, this is true.
The searches are incredibly expensive but if he can show that his system works in respect of other crashed aircraft that have been recovered then it must surely be worth doing another search. If it works it could be an invaluable tool for future use.
@@FrancisE.Dec.Esquire what
@@FrancisE.Dec.Esquire pipe down, 63 year old politics loving waffle
@@FrancisE.Dec.Esquire bro what
Still they believe and think MH370 is resting at bottom of Ocean. This plane is extremely shattered. Still these idiots don't know yet what happened. All Experts are BS! All they do is to fabricate new idiotic theories. They know nothing plus, they confuse millions of people. This plane is disintegrated. It has strong explosions. Join to this FB group to see his pics. I am there too. MH370 - REALITIES and EVIDENCES. All real pictures. He said he has software to take those pics. Don't listen and believe BS experts, officials, engineers,.. They are liar and still don't know what happened.
@@erkanakhisarli5341 bro i don't think spamming garbage on this video is gonna do your little fb group any good
I can't even wrap my brain around what the families and friends of the passengers and crew have been living with all these years. Tragic.
Indeed, tragic and terrible to not know. I can’t even imagine the sheer terror the passengers experienced if the plane was purposely slammed into the ocean. One can’t know only assume what if. Lots of planes have disappeared on the Bermuda Triangle and that’s a strange…
Fools who knowing nothing whatsoever jump out with denial, hatred, envy and stupidity.
How awful is the people of the right wing party, being uneducated low level intelligence yet they think they knows everything. The dunning-kruger effect is a type of cognitive bias in which people believe that they are smarter and more capable than they are
I cant believe its been 7 years...
You used incorrect grammar and punctuation in your comment.
@@Stefanie2530 me?
History is filled to the brim with things "someone" claimed could be done, but could not. My gut feeling (obviously speculation) is that there is a significant risk of confirmation bias poring over the noise-filled radio signals, and being very eager to think that something looking a bit different was a plane, not just static.
You'd be right, but amateurs now are regularly pulling communications out of said noise and communicating with others with minuscule amounts of power because of it. People don't really have an idea how far technology has come in the past 20 years.
@@winterleia9027 Seen from a skeptical angle, it is pretty plausible that he was looking for "signals" in the noise, around the path already suggested by older data. Therefore the closeness in distance proves absolutely nothing. And the meandering path he came up with just looks too weird to me. Unless he releases his data to skeptical peer review, there is nothing to tell if he's just another crackpot - or not.
All Experts are BS! They know nothing plus, they confuse millions of people. This plane is disintegrated. It has strong explosions. Join to this FB group to see his pics. I am there too. MH370 - REALITIES and EVIDENCES. All real pictures. He said he has software to take those pics. Don't listen and believe BS experts, officials, engineers,.. They are liar and still don't know what happened.
@@JohnnieHougaardNielsen Honestly, i'd have said the same thing about the Evergiven's path before jamming it's fat ass into the Canal myself.
For fucks sake it drew a dick with it.
If that actually was a thing... i can see these odd movements being one too. Still wouldnt answer why but not exactly "too weird"
@@higueraft571 Having to wait and maneuver in a small area requires wiggling around in strange ways. Some shape appearing, which some people like to interpret some way is entirely normal, with reasonable causes for every move of EverGiven; not at all weird. The alleged path MH370 is nothing like that, outside of having to avoid obstacles (including bad weather), there is no plausible reason for an airplane wiggling around in lots of curves as suggested. Obviously I'm not saying "impossible", just "not plausible". Without **any** supporting peer review, I just see no good argument for assuming the suggested flight path being real.
Drives me bonkers not knowing what happened to MH370. I cannot even begin to imagine how frustrating and gut wrenching it is for the victim's loved ones to now know what happened.
I swear when this aircraft is going to be found and inspected, there're going to be so many long interesting videos on youtube, I can't wait.
Never happening, sorry. 😢
I just hope we find mh370 at some point soon because I am personally fascinated by this mystery. The family’s need to know and the industry needs to find out what happened.
Like Richard Godfrey asks. If you're trying to lose a plane in the quietest ocean in the world why enter a holding pattern for 20 minutes off the coast of Malaysia. My theory is someone's political demands were not met.
They already know they’re just covering it up the pilot definitely did it
As a fairly regular person it seems pretty convincing to me on the surface, but the fact that he didn't include the method used makes it seem very shady, if you really figured this out and are already publishing the paper why not include the method you used that proves you're right instead of saying, "just trust me and I'll tell you later, promise".
I suspect that the software he used to run the tests, if it works, would have value in military intelligence work. So it's possible that the tech might never see the light of day, or at least not until other countries militaries work it out.
Very much background information. FW 190 is a "drivers" airplane, the BMW of the time.
Cavalry horses were elected from farms in times of war, workhorses !
Nothing shady at all. He clearly states the paper is preliminary and that two additional papers are forthcoming to provide all the details and methodology to facilitate peer review. He has previously published a paper discussing the use of WSPR to track aircraft movements. More discussion and a link in my main comment on this video.
Fortunately we don't have to argue forever. We can look, and either he's right or he's wrong. If need be, tell James Cameron he can have the film rights if he finds it, and send in the gear that explored the Titanic.
As a tease to get funding?
I feel that the pilot examined undersea maps and chose the spot where he thought the plane would have the greatest chance of remaining undiscovered forever. I think that searchers have to try to get into the pilot's mind and try to guess which spot, on the ocean floor, would strike the pilot as the best place to hide a plane, forever. I bet that's where they'll find the plane, eventually.
That's pretty sick.
Ergo entirely plausible.
Did those detailed undersea maps exist at the time? Lots of them were drawn up after the MH370 search started though.
@@m2heavyindustries378 I'm sure you know much more about undersea maps than I do.
It might be an interesting direction for research: What undersea maps were available to the pilot at the time?
Another idea might be to poll a large number pilots asking them to put an X on an undersea map where they think a 777 would have the best chance of being undiscovered forever. I guess a lot of them might put their X on the deepest part of the deepest trench in the relevant areas.
I think the searchers have to try to get into the pilot's mind, like a general trying to guess what the enemy general will do.
I find it hard to believe the co-pilot was also "onboard" with this. Unless most people were somehow incapacitated before the plane took the last leg of its fatal journey.
@@adotintheshark4848 I don't think anyone who is seriously studying this case thinks the co-pilot was involved at all.
While there have been several single-pilot suicide crashes, there's never been one that involved BOTH pilots. In order for any pilot to pull something like this off, it's clear he has to to keep his plans as his deepest darkest secret until the time at which he tries to pull it off. This is why we see these situations where the killer pilot locks the other one out of the cockpit OR waits until the other pilot goes to take a break: EgyptAir, Germanwings, and very likely as well with MH370.
The most frustrating part will be if it is found and the cockpit voice recorder is silent.
Tell me how they are going to extricate all the data and voice recorders from the main frame.
@@mikemars5984 mainframe? lol tell me where you learnt that mainframes are used on planes.
Very interesting and definitely possibly valid if you think about how we recently managed to map the INSIDE of mars by listening to like 700 marsquakes. Some people can interpret amazing things with lots of seemingly subtle I formation
True. However, I feel the need to point out that the quake method is about 100 years old now - we've been using it to map Earth's insides for decades, but only just recently had the budget and technology to do it at Mars (without impacting higher scientific priorities).
As a Malaysian, I could still sense the sombre atmosphere of that fateful day. It felt like the whole country just stood still and was in a state of shock. I was 14 at the time, in high school and i still remember teachers giving us any updates they got. Im 22 now and working. 7 years had passed. I just hope one day we would get answers. InshaAllah.
We're the same age my friend. I was in middle school when it happened. Now I'm 22 years old and studying to become a pilot. I've always wanted to know what exactly happened on that flight.
@@bants1385 what's the problem with them being a muslim?
I hope their families have recovered from the incident
@@blitzkriegc1112 *boom*
@@bants1385 Why are you concerned that he’s a Muslim?
Thanks for the succinct summary of technical points, excellent graphics and sound commentary. Look forward to researching more now!
Fascinating. Thank you for publishing this 👍🏻😎
I am a formally educated electronics engineer, and while I wouldn’t claim to be an expert in RF specifically, I have a foundational understanding in the area, and a good deal of experience working with radio equipment (I’ve also used the software defined radio application shown in the video, although I wasn’t clear on what the source of that clip is). Anyhow, I believe it is absolutely proper to remain skeptical until more information is provided regarding his specific methodology and other research can be performed to verify the veracity of his claims-but hypothetically speaking I think it’s possible to track aircraft with this technology, and at the distances involved. Remember the signal originated in Europe and was received and recorded in Australia-this isn’t like radar where the signal must be reflected back to its source. Using the ionosphere to broadcast across immense distances has been a fixture of HAM radio technique for decades, and it can carry clearly the spoken voice of a broadcaster thousands of miles. So there’s no question that the transmission and reception of a radio signal is possible. The signature that they identify and use to track an aircraft is indeed a very weak, subtle modulation of the signal. However, as the term “signature” suggests, it is rather unique to the shape, size, material, altitude, and vector of the aircraft-thus it is easily distinguishable from background noise, other objects, or general interference. If the signature appears at the times and locations one would expect, and match that of the original verified source, it can be determined to a fairly high degree of certainty that it’s the same aircraft (assuming as the video’s narrator mentioned that there aren’t a lot of other similar class of aircraft in the same airspace around the same time, which would produce very similar signatures).
Hope, this solves 8 years mystery case. I wonder if flight data recorder and cockpit voice recorder still survive at this rate.
Almost certainly not. They're designed for about 2~ years tops. It's been 4x that at relatively extreme depths.
The flight of MH 370 is sad and fascinating at the same time. I mean, how can such a huge plane just disappear without a trace in this extremely connected world, while I can already monitor my pets at home with a damn smartphone?
Anyways, great video, thank you for that.
I guess there’s a difference with a plane flying an unknown path, or at least a decently unknown path (or else it would have been found) into an enormous ocean where the plane would be nothing more than a needle in a haystack.
Your dogs though are watched at a known specifically set up location and your phone connects to that device.
@@fluffy-fluffy5996 The world is at an confusing scale and that is the point. We can track things down to the centimeter in a city, but air planes can get lost in the ocean. Meanwhile, boats have GPS and can be real-time monitored. I can guess the reasons - a plane is build around "not falling down for stupid reasons", while on a boat: adding a satellite dish and high power transceivers: No problem - inventory control is important. (Yet there are stories of smartphones on ship bridges interfering with the ships autopilot and air planes that had cabin fires latter traced back to entertainment wiring - so there is reason not to add unessential systems)
Travel beyond your normal comfort zone. And find you can no longer track anything. Because you have no cell phone signal. The world is connected where you live. Not where no one lives.
Well, most of the plane connectivity was disconnected due to some reason, and the plane was not within cell tower reachability. And apparently no military has radar coverage in the middle of nowhere.
Interesting if this indirect radar-ish proves true, if it does I imagine most militaries will study it as a potential threat/capability; ability to track military cargo planes out of radar coverage ought to have interest to military analysts.
@@sarowie you have zero idea how communications work, if you’re comparing networks in the middle of a city and in the middle of an ocean
Can i just say very good job on the video, you made a very complicated issue and method into a clear and easy to understand video. Bravo!
thanks :)
This channel deserves more subscribers- very well made!
It's worth investigating...Would it be possible to run a "test flight" with a 777 along the same route and see if you could track it using this method?
It would be possible.
Use a retired plane that is set to be scrapped, load to the same fuel levels, and same weight. Fly it by remote control following set GPS point. See if this is possible, and search the area where the test plane goes down.
Nobody will be put in danger by using RC, and a plane set to be scrapped will go out in a useful way.
And they could do the same with a 2nd plane and find out if the 777 could really reach Geraldton.
@@flightsimboi8914 they're wondering if they can track the plane using the WSPR data, before you can do something in the sim it has to be performed, observed and proven in real life too
@@doppiedops Hi Hu Tao
@@HoshikawaHikari hello yoimiya
@@doppiedopscan't they run wspr on regular flights?
Hi, I am a passionate viewer of “air crash investigation” on The Discovery Channel” and I watch it season after season. What I keep noticing is that a greatest interest is to find the “Flight Data Recorder” and the “Cockpit Voice Recorder” to be able to solve an airplane accident. I keep asking myself with the current technology and technical possibilities it should be possible to physically eliminate these 2 “Recorders” from an airplane and upload this information or that data “In Real Life” via satellite so that you never have to search again to these recorders or there is a concern that the data on those recorders may have become unreadable due to exposure to water or fire for too long. If this data is uploaded IRL from an aircraft to a central database, the correct date up to the last second can always be consulted immediately in the event of an accident, even if the aircraft is under water for 1000 miles or has been completely pulverized by the impact or a major fire. I'm just wondering this and this may be a tip for the future. Kind regards.
Great idea. Data in the cloud 24/7.
(Disclaimer: I don’t know a whole lot about data transmission, so if anybody needs, feel free to correct me)
This actually could be useful for more remote areas, however it would most likely require a powered module attached to the FDR and CVR that is capable of transmitting long distance (and in the case of the CVR, audio data which is much more of a nuisance to transmit compared to simple binary flight data)
The FDR cloud data transmission might actually be possible at this moment; we would simply need a satellite network capable of sending the data to a server somewhere on the ground. The audio data would most likely have to be converted into a format that sends easily, as raw audio files (usually .wav files) are large and can be a pain to send even over the internet if your speed is low (which in this case, would most likely be slow as you’re sending data over satellite).
Definitely an interesting idea to think about, though!
Let's hope we may be able to find the wreckage of MH370. While I am Malaysian, I am glad that my family haven't taken that flight. I just hope all who have lost their significant others in that flight is okay. May God blessed us all.
Terrorism committed by a certain country.
@@peekaboopeekaboo1165 Actually, if the assumption is correct, this is more a middle-aged man's attempt at D B Cooper infamy, being known as the guy who made an entire plane vanish, never to be found ever again. Not terrorism
@@peekaboopeekaboo1165 Terrorism is meant to send a message or cause chaos. We don't know what happened though. It can't be terrorism.
@@relaxer1148 Yeah, I don't really see any reason for even terrorizing that specific flight. The World Trade Center, the Pentagon, and the White House are important. The Boston Marathon is a big event. I don't really understand why someone would crash a random flight like that. That's exactly why I partially think it could've been terrorism. No one would think a random flight is going to be terrorized.
It reminds me of the discovery of Neptune. They had figured out where the planet was mathematically, but no one bothered to look for years, then when they went to look, found it the first night.
I enjoy your slower talking pace now, I can now absorb the narration, thanxx 😁😁👍👍
I try very hard 😄 thank you!
Thanks so much ..this was very interesting!💙
I'd say any theories should be given a good look at. I don't know enough about this subject to offer anything. But pretty neat that this guy is putting something out there for people to look at. Greatest aviation mystery ever. Great video.
Looking at this leaves me with two clear worries. First, that the odds of a plane crossing the path of a given signal is exceptionally tiny since the 'ray' to the ionosphere is going to be randomized by the height of the ionosphere and other factors. Second, these bands are full of noise and anomalies that can look like a false 'event'. That the guy wrote a piece of software that he claims can find any airplane 'anywhere, anytime' makes it sound like he's extremely confident in his methods. Part of me wants to believe this is possible, but I'm very very skeptical.
Same
Radio waves don't travel in a straight line. They travel in all possible directions. So you don't need to worry about the exact "ray" - as long as some of the radio energy hits the plane, it will perturb the signal. Whether that perturbation is large enough to be measured at the distances here I do not know, but I've personally seen this effect very clearly with paths in the hundreds of miles. If you want to read up on this more, two terms to look up are "Fresnel zone" and "passive radar".
And you have a degree in?
Judging by the videos you watch you probably work a a gas station lol
@@Shitty796 why are you criticizing this person’s skepticism? We have seen countless times where someone claims to have the technology to do something and it simply doesn’t exist.
Fascinating! And very well explained. You got yoursef a new subscriber…
Good balanced summary! Thanks!
It seems easy enough to reproduce on purpose that I don't think any search company would want to try it without that. Just have the test craft fly a similar but different path at that time of night at a similar time of year with similar weather, and see if Mr. Godfrey can figure out exactly where it went. If he's way off, and maybe try it several times even, then don't bother.
I heard that there is a few company very interested to restart the search.
I am a amateur radio licenced operator and have education & work in telecomms. I have little to no confidence in the claims you can track airplanes over such long distances using WSPR protocol on shortwave (WSPR is modulated "beacon" signals sent for two minutes and with pauses of e.g. 8 minutes). First of all there are very few active WSPR stations in South-East ASIA. So how is this claimed precise tracking possible? Typical WSPR stations uses 5W or less to omnidirectional antennas.
And typical reflections works over distances less than 500km, even with sensitive gear and high power. And remember the WSPR signals will fade up and down all the time with propagations.
To me this seems like wishful thinking and not any hard evidence. And with no documentation of his calculations, or any physical wreck this is not worth more than a look in a crystal ball.
thanks for your insight, interesting
I fully agree with every point. (KE6IZN here!) His method is only possible by assuming that a radio signal received from a transmitter must continue only on the same bearing toward the receiver and beyond it around the globe back to the transmitter. Any of his projected 'tripwire' paths blanketing the globe that come near his guessed target location must then have been disrupted by the plane (and no other factor). It's wishful thinking turned pseudoscience.
Misinformation yikes
I'd say CONCEPT is sound - that's bistatic radar after all. Devil is in details, beginning with Power Budget you mentioned.
There was washed up flap parts and ocean current analysis to put the ditched aircraft in the general area. Not very precise but ball park.
So… a search radius of 40 miles? That’s 5000 square miles of terrain to search, and in difficult terrain…
Yeah, I’d give that search a hard pass.
sure, the methodology _sounds_ effective, but the atmosphere isn’t a neat and flat mirror to bounce radio signals off of.
Weather will influence the elevation of upper atmosphere layers, which will likely cause any detections made using radio signals at extreme distances to be perturbed off of the great-circle line - which might explain the weird flight path we’re being given by it.
that said, it should be trivial for independent researchers to vett the methodology. Until that happens, I’ll consider this “interesting, but not immediately actionable”
well said
you can sweep from the center though
The signals don’t bounce in the atmosphere, rather in various layers of the ionosphere in space. Go read his paper about using WSPR for this purpose.
@@jpoconnor5744 Technically, they refract through the ionosphere above the upper atmosphere and reflect off sometimes mountainous terrain for multiple skips, which adds to the crazy unpredictability of the paths. A broadcast signal also takes multiple routes simultaneously, which causes multipath fading. I fully agree that all of Eric P's points are well said.
Eric, 5000 sq miles. is a miniscule area, compared to what they've already searched.
Another thing, he's already done proof-of-concepts on this, and it works.
They've provided him with double-blind flight real-life flight info, and he's shown he can crunch the signals and numbers on his end and
report back the flight paths exactly.
And he's fully aware of the issues you presented(atmosphere,weather); he's already accounted for these factors.
Thanks Airspace !
lntriguing to say the least !
Thanks for this video, it was very interesting and understandable to the average person! Well done!
I'm wondering about something you said in the video about "reflected signal energy". I assumed the Whisper method involves "dips" in the signal rather than reflection. Was that a misunderstanding? I also agree with others that there could be multiple ways of validating this method before spending more money. Anyway, another great episode, thanks!
The initial hope of using WSPR and aircraft scatter for MH370 was similar to the use of meteor scatter or over-the-horizon radar, where a connection can get established where it's normally not possible. WSPR signals are rare connections, mostly between hams in populated Americas and Europe. SIO crossings are very rare, requiring multiple skips. The only way to look for a "disruption" of a signal is to compare it to a recent previous signal detection. The only way to do that is using short skips between two stations that are in frequent contact. So, what Godfrey did is to change the assumption that radio signals take the shortest direct path, and changed it to the opposite. He assumes that all those short distance contacts are actually taking the projected reverse path around the globe, and incidentally always getting disrupted by his target plane. The ionsphere is constantly shifting, and signals fade in and out due to multiple paths adding or subtracting. Godfrey further assumes that any variation in signal strength is due to only his tracked aircraft, and no other planes or factors.
Love the video! Thanks!
Great video. Let's hope they find the wreckage soon. Cheers from Australia. Evan.
Another banger from airspace also I think this theory makes a whole lotta sense 👏🏼👍
This certainly casts a new light on how probable it is that the captain flew the plane into it's doom on purpose... if this technology really works as accurately as he claims, this looks like quite an intentional flightpath. We'll have to wait and see I guess.
Very well explained, cheers mate!
In reality this is absolutely zero proof. But some apparently choose to "believe" in any undocumented claim on the interwebs.
@@la7dfa Key phrase *"if* this technology really works as accurately as he claims,"
"Some" might choose to believe this without proper verification, but neither Phileas Schulhof nor the person(s) behind this Airspace channel appear to be among them.
Only theory that ever made sense imo
Yes, the Captain flew the plane very cleverly and premeditatedly to its ultimate doom. Someday this mystery will be solved. Until then, these kinds of theories will be floated.
@@la7dfa occam's razor though
I'd really love to know how one could calculate such a detailed flight path from the interference of an airplane fuselage with a radio signal sent between one transmitter and one receiver on opposite sides of the planet. And this using a signal that bounces between planet and ionosphere several times before reaching its target.
I'm afraid that the erratic flying pattern might be the result of some statistical best guess algorithm that had to do with a very noisy signal.
I'd be thrilled for all stakeholders (mostly family members of those lost in the crash) if I'd be wrong and this method actually works reliably enough.
Very interesting and informative video. Thank you.
TH-cam recommendation brought me here...a very interesting upload, thank you. Not something I would have searched for tbh but pleased I found it.....Sounds like a reasonable theory and should be taken seriously.
It’s curious that the calculated flight path can be reconciled with the Inmarsat data. There are far more twists and turns, so obviously the flight would have taken longer, with longer duration between each of the Inmarsat locations. The new flight path would have MH370 cross each of the Inmarsat arcs at progressively later and later times. I understand that the Inmarsat data has fairly big error bars, so maybe that’s the solution?
I also thought that the previous crash location was based heavily on the endurance of the 777. Wouldn’t all the twists and turns have greatly shortened the overall flight path vector?
Anyway, great video, as always.
It's not coincidence that Godfrey's MH370 track matches previous evidence or speculation. He guides the flight path at each two minute checkpoint toward where his best guess is for where the plane should have been. He's incorporating sat data to exactly match the ping rings. He has an early turn south to exactly match an eyewitness report, but then must delay with a holding pattern to match successive ping rings. His earliest speculation had a loiter before the turn. It's not surprising that his WSPR endpoint is near his previous conclusions for the endpoint. BTW, the Inmarsat BTO timing data is considered very accurate, within a few km depending on estimates flight altitude of the pings. The "doppler" BFO is less reliable, because it depends on predictions of the temperature of the reference frequency crystal oven from the unknown times when it repowered, plus the temperature of the uplink satellite when in eclipse.
Another great episode
Really interesting theory! I hope it pans out for the families involved.
I thoroughly enjoyed your rational and balanced way of presenting this. Well done!
love how a ~5,000 nautical square-mile search area is exact....
The mystery of MH370 has been something that’s always bothered me for some reason. I’ve been intrigued by its vanishing & what really happened to it since the day it went missing. I followed it in the news, I have looked up, read, & stayed up-to-date with all the efforts put towards finding it. Even today, years later, I still occasionally search MH370 to see if something new pops up. With the exception of wild conspiracies, I devour anything that seems reasonably plausible, albeit, there was a time that I even did watch a few of the more mild conspiracy videos to entertain the idea of something more sinister. I don’t know why this has always bugged me so much, I have no connection to, from, or with anything or anyone on that plane, at least that I know of.
I would sure like to see if this technical concept will lead to anything more, perhaps another search. I don’t understand to much about how this guy’s method works but I’ll leave that to the experts & just maybe it will lead to something. I’d love to have this plane found & more questions answered surrounding it’s mystery.
Good research man
I really hope he is right and that they actual look
Edit: obviously as said in other comments his theories need to be peer reviewed and tested against known aircraft tracks at similar distances & congestion.
The families deserve some answers
Fools who knowing nothing whatsoever jump out with denial, hatred, envy and stupidity.
How awful is the people of the right wing party, being uneducated low level intelligence yet they think they knows everything. The dunning-kruger effect is a type of cognitive bias in which people believe that they are smarter and more capable than they are
@@FrancisE.Dec.Esquire says the guy capitalizing random words throughout every sentence
I think that any theory which has some facts behind it is worth investigating.
Excellent video
Nicely presented
As a licensed radio amateur since 23 years of course I know WSPR very well (did about 15.000 contacts only between 2021 and now on all HF-bands between 80 and 10 meters ) and I also discussed this topic with several more experienced ham radio operators. We are all of the opinion that WSPR offers no possibility of providing even the remotest movement data that can be assigned to an object as small - in relation - as an airplane. The problem is not the transmission, but the reception, or rather the receiver, the receiver antenna and, above all, the data that is processed by the receiver and fed into the database. In principle, this is just the reception strength of the signal and a few others, just to clearly assign who the sender is. And the reception strength and the positions in relation to each other (transmitter and receiver) alone tell us very little about the signal path, and certainly not about any anomalies, which can be caused by almost anything. In addition, the measure of reception strength is not only a product of the transmitting power of the transmitter but above all a product of the already mentioned - rather unknown signal path and - on the very top of that - a product of the receiving antenna (in principle, it is not "a signal" that is measured, but how much of it the antenna can convert into electrical energy for the receiver. In very simplified terms: "bad" antenna, quiet signal, "good" antenna, loud signal). In other words: Yes, you can "calculate" something, but the chance that this is correct is virtually zero. - sorry to say.
before gps developement ,the best navigation system was loran
it was 100% dependent on radio direction triangulation and was world wide with land based and stationary broadcasting ships at sea to cover ocean crossing aircraft and boats and ships
Perhaps he wanted to get his research out quickly, feeling it wouldn’t be right to withhold potential hope of closure for those who knew the victims. I can certainly see that, one of the victims of the crash was a close friend of a family member so yes, it has provided hope that closure may be closer than it has ever been. But it is also very irresponsible to publish this prematurely if it is wrong or in any way flawed, that hope would be false hope and if serious efforts for a new search are triggered then it may damage the possibility of future searches based on more reliable data.
Yes, you are right. I totally support what you said. I think he just want to give the sense of hope. Hope ,is all we need it.False hope or not, I think we as human being will always prevail when we are facing s disaster because we believe in god. Now, you understand why we always have a sense of hope.
Godfrey has been blogging his daily progress of analyzing the MH370 flight track. It's Geoffrey Thomas who has been writing articles based on that, and got it to go viral using his media connections. Godfrey's progress was slow because he has to estimate each guessed target point from two-minute resolution WSPR data. it can't be automated or replicated, because he's incorporating his personal biases into each track point, cherry picking from dozens of nearby 'tripwires' for ones that will match eyewitness, ping rings, and his preferred endpoint. I fully agree that mainly Thomas has raised false hope after past articles criticizing exactly that. I also agree that this damages the credibility of viable research and future search efforts.
Great video.
Life is just not fair: the Boeing 777 has an excellent safety record, but there were two deadly losses within a few months, by just Malaysian Airlines, which have not been fully elucidated.
At least this made me stop asking all the time: why is this always happening to me
And in all fairness to MAS, one of the losses was not their fault at all (the loss of 370 could have some blame put on them).
Well, MH17 is very straightforward - 40kg SAM warhead to the 'head' of the aircraft.
That video of the plane crossing an arc and changing the radio signal is interesting. Where does it come from? Might be good to post links to the paper too.
I am a little skeptical. I've done a little stuff with sdr radio and I'm still not sure which graph we're supposed to think is showing a change when the plane crosses the line. I kinda want to see a signal that jumps out and does so every single time a plane crosses that line.
Picking the _exact_ spot on the ocean floor makes me more skeptical not less. It seems like a stunt. I'd expect someone who knows what they're doing to be open about their uncertainties and the limits of their predictions.
Yep, it's a stunt. Previous papers have studied forward aircraft scatter, particularly at VHF. It's a real thing, but all the studies are for contacts just over the horizon. Even military OTH radar using megawatt transmitters, directional antennas, and doppler detection cannot pick up aircraft much beyond coastline protection. The trick is that Godfrey pretends that frequent short skip contacts between stations are actually signals traveling backwards the longest way around the globe and only interacting with his guessed target. Long path propagation beyond antipodal distance is also a rare thing but the path is undefined, like a divide by zero. It's certainly not happening on every contact. His whole approach is infinitely improbable.
I would be interested in further progress and also forensic discussion of the pilot’s motives and actions..
and why he was not removed from control of the cockpit by others on board if making such erratic unauthorised course changes?
We don't know anything what happened inside the cockpit tho..so can't be said that people on board didn't try to remove him.
Pretty likely if it were a planned attempt at infamy (which succeeded), and long planned. He waited for the copilot to leave the cockpit. Locked it. Ascended and depressurized the cabin. Copilot with air attempts distress call, fails. Dies with the rest. Rest of the trip Pilot is the only living being onboard.
Corpses cant oppose you.
Every time YT adds a context banner it scares me.
Wow that guy is eighter full of himself and smart or BS, the amount of variables and noise to signal ratio is baffling!
No, skip communication doesn’t work “anytime”. Conditions to talk to the other side of the world are rare.
Not nearly as rare with WSPR.
I saw the video with the aerospace engineer saying he had a theory about MH370 would be. We may never know for sure if the pilot brought the aircraft down but I would hope finding it would bring some closure to the families.
Everyone's talking about the story (rightfully so) but no one is talking about the quality content and editing? This guy deserves more than 50k subs!
I hope they finally find the plane, not only to give the victims' families closure but also to lay all these weird conspiracy theories to rest.
It would change nothing because whoever flew that plane out there to wreck it still cannot explain why they did it.
@@about2mount You can discover a lot from the way a plane crashes and from which parts are damaged how. Besides that, it would at least confirm that the people who were on the flight are dead. I've heard people theorize that the flight is still in the air in some sort of time loop and I just find it disgusting how that gives people false hope. At least with the plane found they would have to stop with their weird theories.
@@EvanBear It’s obviously not a conspiracy theory, the pilot committed suicide and took the whole plane with him. This has happened in Europe before also. The only cell phone ping detected during the flight came from the copilot, I’m guessing he was desperately reaching out for help as the pilot had locked him out the cockpit. Pilot was going through a divorce and had the flight simulations to prove he was planning this kind of scenario in advance.
@@gsiggs That was not what I was talking about. Pilot suicide isn't a conspiracy, it's a possibility. A government cover-up is a conspiracy not a possibility.
@@EvanBear A government cover-up is not a possibility? Uh, what?
That new flight path is eye-opening. If the plane didn't fly on in a straight line for hours, that means they were still alive throughout the flight.
i think he kept changing different airspaces
They were all dead save the pilot. He took it up so high that they would have all died except the culprit who was on O2.
The cabin of an airliner is pressurized. one cannot take an airliner "so high" that everyone suffocates, except if the cabin is depressurized. But then, the pilot will also run out of oxygen within about 15 minutes.
@@AirspaceVideos The cabin oxygen lasts for around 15 min. I'm not sure about B777 but many aircraft use OBOG -on board oxygen generator. The cockpit crew use bottled O2 which is piped to all crew seats and typically comes from two separate bottles. I'm sure the crew O2 capacity is more than 15 minutes per seat.
Thats at least an hour for one person.
The aircraft can be repressurized any time.
No aircraft I knoe uses OBOG
4:10 I hadn’t noticed this before but hearing The Rite off Spring with the static makes it all the more ominous 💀
I always guessed it was there - just beyond the point where the big search was called off because it was costing too much, and did not seem to be getting anywhere. I was wishing they would just do One More Heave...
I literally caught MH370, KL - Beijing the night before (March 7th 2014) it was a pretty full flight, I noticed alot of Russians onboard in first or business class. Still have my Boarding Pass. It was just plain luck I wasn't onboard 1 day later.
Lucky you, that was one hell of a close shave
Theories are great and all that but I'm not convinced by it. I need to see some kind of substantial evidence. Something more than just a piece of metal floating in the water somewhere. Honesty I don't think we will ever find out what exactly what happened. Good video as always my friend. 👏👏👏
We know the pilot manually put the flaps down and angle of attack at ditching from the damage done to the washed up flap parts. So we know how it was flown into the sea {ditched}. Someday, when we find the aircraft, we will know where. We'll never know why the pilot killed all those people.
Do you have a link to the WSPR net video at around 4:10?
The person knows where it is at all times. It knows this because it knows where it isn't. By subtracting where it is from where it isn't, or where it isn't from where it is (whichever is greater), it obtains a difference, or deviation. The guidance subsystem uses deviations to generate corrective commands to drive the plane from a position where it is to a position where it isn't, and arriving at a position where it wasn't, it now is. Consequently, the position where it is, is now the position that it wasn't, and it follows that the position that it was, is now the position that it isn't.
In the event that the position that it is in is not the position that it wasn't, the system has acquired a variation, the variation being the difference between where the plane is, and where it wasn't. If variation is considered to be a significant factor, it too may be corrected by the GEA. However, the person must also know where it was.
By God, I think you got it. The is that isn't is the was that wasn't. Absolutely brilliant!
In 1987 a South African Airways aircraft also crashed in the Indian Ocean. The search for it was extensive and successful. An in-depth review of it would be interesting.
Yes, SAA Flight 295 - the 747 that suffered an in-flight fire which caused it to break apart while the pilots attempted to land at Mauritius. They recovered the black boxes as well, from an incredible depth of about 4kms - still the deepest recovery operation ever conducted.
I'm surprised that there aren't (or maybe there are) underwater acoustic devices for monitoring geological movement along the fault lines "near" this area. If there was, I wonder if noise would have been picked up from the plane crushing as it made its way to the seafloor that could be triangulated.
Australia sits directly in the center of its tectonic plate. There is nothing geological of tangible substance for Australia to monitor. Its a good idea though for the incredibly rare cases where a pilot fly's a plane into oblivion for unknown but highly likely political reasons.
I watch a ton of airplane disappearing mystery videos and this video was recommended to me because of that.
I mean it’s close enough to the other predicted crash sight. It doesn’t really matter the flight route
Regardless of what the media said about hypoxic pilots, an onboard emergency like a fire etc, which are absurd considering no official mayday was sent. All the evidence pointed towards Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah hijacking the plane. He asked for an unusual amount of extra fuel to be loaded before leaving Kuala Lumpur, just prior to MH370 disappearing he signs off with “Good night MH -three-seven-zero” but fails to read back the radio frequency 120.9Mhz to Vietnam Ho Chi Minh ATC after being instructed which is the normal protocol, turns back almost immediately crossing over the Vietnam FIR boundary IGARI just 90 secs later, and at the same time turns off ACARS and the transponder, he follows the Thai/Malaysia FIR boundary in and out of each airspace while according to radar increased altitude, most likely depressurizing the passenger cabin causing rapid hypoxia and death of the passengers, he then banks the aircraft around Penang Island his hometown (at this point the co-pilot's phone appears to have made an attempted distress call that the plane had been hijacked - he probably still had enough portable bottled oxygen before it ran out). The aircraft then tracks North/West up through the Malacca Strait to the Andaman Sea, then heads South similar to the simulator track he practiced just 6 weeks earlier. Zaharie Ahmad Shah was going through a marriage breakup due to his extramarital affairs which were also failing. A number of people close to him said he was depressed. So he had the means, the opportunity and the motivation. If you consider someone with narcissistic personality disorder and a murder/suicide mindset, someone that wanted to create a deep mystery and go down famously in history, like the disappearances of Amelia Earhart, Glenn Miller, or Flight 19 etc; Broken Ridge would be the most likely place to crash or ditch the plane into the deepest and most difficult undersea topography where it would be almost impossible to find. Of course Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah wasn't aware of how the Inmarsat or WSPRnet technology might leave a trace of his location. This scenario I've outlined is the most plausible and it's consistent with all the known available evidence. It's basically a case of using Occam's Razor or like Sherlock Holmes would say, "When you have eliminated all which is impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth”.
Reading your remarks was almost as exciting - and somewhat maybe more data-rich - as the video. Thanks for sharing, greetings from Latvia, of all places!
@@JurisKankalis Thank you for your kind words. It's a perplexing case, and I really hope they get out there and locate the crash site, and hopefully the 'black box' flight data recorders. Who knows, they may still render some clues, but I don't like their chances though. It's been nearly 8 years and a lot of sediment would have probably covered them by now. It's just a shame that this WSPRnet method to detect the crash site wasn't thought of earlier. It would have saved a lot of time and money, and given us a better chance of solving the mystery.
Are accurate flight paths available for past airliner flights in the region? With hopefully hundreds or thousands of flights, the process could be verified and improved, ideally by several other research teams.
Looking at the comments, I think they did tested some planes, bilnd testing them, but until we got the methodology so we can know that we can do the same, we can assume that this is kind of true.
This video popped up in my suggested video related to what I have been watching since the day it disappeared.
I hope he's right but others have made claims that didn't pan out. But, if a peer review of his findings and approach show promise then it would warrant a limited search of the proposed area. The families need closure.
A circle 40 nautical miles around the specified site represents a huge search area covering an area of very complex sea bed topography. So an area of just over 5,000 square nautical miles. That is no trivial search!
The theory is either accurate and trustworthy or it is not accurate and trustworthy.
Let's test the theory and prove its accuracy before spending another 100 million dollars. --- Great upload. ---
Interesting video. What about the air traffic controller group’s theory presented in Paris that MH370 is near Christmas Island?
1) What exactly was the short videoclip supposed to show when an aircraft crossed a WHISPER line?
2) I wouldn’t be surprised if the enthusiasm would be lukewarm in some countries, but Australia will probably move forward.
Thank you for making videos like this.
I was hoping so much that the Netflix documentary about this flight would dive into the more realistic possibilities of what could have happened to this flight, rather than focus purely on conspiracy theories. It was an incredibly disappointing documentary.
Oh, thank you for that insight. 🤗 Saved from renewing the subscription! 😅
@@katarzynazofia it was a really documentary
@Turd Ferguson yes, I know. I had heard about it and I was going to watch it, but your comment sorted out the doubts for me 💁♀️😄
With every crash they have initially found wreckage that tells them if the plane broke up in flight or when it hit the water. With MH370 there has been very little wreckage.
There was enough wreckage to prove 100 percent that someone manually put the flaps down prior to the aircraft going into the sea. Damage on the flap parts indicate the angle of attack was what you would find when a pilot ditches {lands on water} the aircraft.
Have there been any changes since then to prevent something like this from happening again??
We've had some theories and speculations in the past about its possible location, I hope this time would be fruitful, unless someone somewhere doesn't want it seen.
Can a planes flight data recorder tell anything why the voice recorder is silent ?
If found, will the recorders be in serviceable condition after so many years submerged in sea water ?
Depends. Black box is waterproof, corrosive and shock resistant. It is usually located at the tail so the impact wouldn’t be as bad as front. It really depends if the 1inch stainless steel/titanium manage to keep it water tight.
Waterproof depends on the shock impact and the depth. Pressure increases with ocean depth. An average submarine body made of 4 layer of steel approximately 2-3 inch steel. Submarine despite being thicker doesn’t submerge that deep.
If salt water manage to get in. The black box is pretty much done.
@@Alvin-eq5rc
Tq 4 xplanation, I always think that since radio Com. With the ground control was silent, there must be some unknown external mechanism that deviate the flight path and radio communication of the plane, will such abnormality be recorded in the flight data recorder. ?
@@hassanmusa6375 oh you were talking about the blank “silent space” in the video? That has nothing to do with flight data recorder etc.
Radio is type of electromagnetic wave. The video above uses one of the radio signal but has nothing to do with plane communications system. They use different frequencies so it wouldn’t clash with civilians radio (the same kind of music radio in your car).
Back to the “blank space” or “silent” whatever you call it. If you place a boat in a still calm water then drop a stone. You see a ripples effect cause by the stone until it hit the boat. The plane is the boat. It temporarily cut off the radio from the receiver when it travel through the path.
The analyst explanation is plausible but not certain. It could be anything that cause the radio interruption. Plane could be one possible since that part of the region is quite remote. However, bad weather can also occasionally interrupt too.
Let’s say the analyst did put weather into consideration and timing for the plane to cross the path presumably he did. In my personal opinion I wouldn’t even say 100% or even 70% accurate.
It needs more evidence. The search is extremely expensive. The report cannot be use as the go ahead for the search with vague evidence.
@@Alvin-eq5rc I want to know something sorry my English not good can the plane send fake data to the satellite can they do that to make the search became difficult
7:18 that image corresponds to Infiniy's Ocean Seabed Constructor vessel, which specializes in hydrographic survey; it's a British company with base in Houston, Texas, USA
Excellent video, excellent narration, excellent graphics. The WSPR network is new to me (I'm not a 'ham'). It's a very attractive idea that Richard Godfrey's method can detect aircraft. I hope it's true - not all aircraft have ADS-C or ADS-B over satellite for oceanic trajectories. Look how long Air France 447 took to discover, MH 370 has exceeded that 'agony of not knowing' by many years.
It wasn't clear to me whether the WSPR aircraft anomalies are _reflected_ energy being somehow detected or a transient _weakening_ of a signal currently being received and how this is attributable to an aircraft. In passive radar there is the notion of forward scatter being detected (caused by a large reflecting object moving through a location between fixed transmitter(s) and fixed receiver(s) ). Intensive computational solutions can retrace the point at which the forward reflection occurred - by the target in question. By the use of different frequencies one can obtain reflections from objects of different sizes and also with different precision (related to the wavelength). The disadvantage of really high frequencies (with the best location resolution) is that their range is usually limited. Therefore often a mix of frequencies is used in passive radar as a trade-off to provide a target location with varying precision as the transmitter/receiver network is further/closer to the moving target. Very nice English from a fellow Swiss. All the best, Rob in Switzerland
Danke viu mau! :) / Thanks a lot!
I don’t believe this method could feasibly give accurate locations as the height of the reflecting layers of the ionosphere varies moment by moment depending on time of day, solar activity, sunspot cycles etc. This randomness would be amplified by the several reflections at different points around the world depending on the specific path. (Retired professional who worked on radio technology for 35 years and radio amateur.)
@Alfred Weber The ‘gold standard’ would be a double-blind test of the methodology as someone already commented. Making observations fit data is one thing, actually making predictions and then unblinding the data is another.
I think that's basically return to idea of trip-wire / bi-static radar and as such is feasible enough to warrant few things. First would be basic propagation simulations / calculations. Second would be ascertaining other data you mentioned ( and ionosphere condition ). Third - with advent of Digital Radio and Machine Learning world could be realtively easily covered by small network of stations emiting signals DESIGNED for such purpose and collect other ionosphere related data (well, that's how first radar research was conducted) for FUTURE applications.
The Captain's flight sim data is the undeniable evidence that he did it. It was declared inconclusive for political reasons. I hope its found and we find out more. I wonder if any of the data on the data recorders will still be readable