This model doesn't work for certain scenarios. If there are no draws, the draw probability is 0%, which is not realistic. It also doesn't work if team A won the last 4 matches and team B lost the last 4 matches: team A winning prob. would be 100%, team B winning prob. would be 0%, and draw prob. would be 0% as well.
accurate comment - would mention though that if you use it around the price of the favourite then it becomes more interesting (in case where there are wins for either side - but no draws) still very simplistic as in your comment. If you take a look at the weighted form edition (also incredibly simple) but this helps with those points.
It’s not a good theory dude. If a team played their last 4 games with all small teams? So, it doesn’t work, sorry. You have to count their opposite team strength also. Like, Inter won against whom? etc. Thanks!
One from today (2022-09-21) FC Anyang - Daejeon Citizen 2.45 3.20 2.80 | My Odds: 2.22 3.55 4.44 So, FC Anyang will win for sure (means: Value Odds!). Final score: 0:1 :((
Your calculated odds meant that Anyang were less likely to win than to win. Even if it was a 90% thing, they can still lose. It's got nothing to do with sure things.
Haven't you made a mistake? Don't you mean that there is value backing the Away team and not the Draw in the example you give? I think you got it backwards. Looking forward to your explanation.
hey charalambos - it's the draw as the price offered is greater than our calculated one. (3.8 vs 2.67). With that said, it's probably better to use this method to evaluate the shorter priced team so in this case as we think Inter Milan should be 2.67 but the offered price is 2.14 we would oppose them to win.
Please sir what if the game you want to compile they odds happens that in they last eight game they don't have draws is only wins. What can you do to get home price, draw price & away price
This model doesn't work for certain scenarios. If there are no draws, the draw probability is 0%, which is not realistic. It also doesn't work if team A won the last 4 matches and team B lost the last 4 matches: team A winning prob. would be 100%, team B winning prob. would be 0%, and draw prob. would be 0% as well.
accurate comment - would mention though that if you use it around the price of the favourite then it becomes more interesting (in case where there are wins for either side - but no draws) still very simplistic as in your comment. If you take a look at the weighted form edition (also incredibly simple) but this helps with those points.
Excellent comment
I would add the scoring forms of the home and away sides in the recent games and also the head to head stats between the two teams !
Form means nothing
very good,ill be looking further into this.
It’s not a good theory dude. If a team played their last 4 games with all small teams? So, it doesn’t work, sorry. You have to count their opposite team strength also. Like, Inter won against whom? etc. Thanks!
Yes it's true brother
One from today (2022-09-21)
FC Anyang - Daejeon Citizen 2.45 3.20 2.80 | My Odds: 2.22 3.55 4.44 So, FC Anyang will win for sure (means: Value Odds!). Final score: 0:1 :((
Your calculated odds meant that Anyang were less likely to win than to win. Even if it was a 90% thing, they can still lose. It's got nothing to do with sure things.
God bless you for this powerful video
Great Video ..
MAKE more video like this !
Hi, could you do a video mixing this one and your video featuring poison probability? It would be interesting to see how both could work together
Hi Justin - sure can, added to the list! (There's also another nice combo which is adjusting using team/player ratings)
I Love this 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
thankyou!
I Love this video
Soccerstat right
Small sample !!
i love the video...great work
Haven't you made a mistake? Don't you mean that there is value backing the Away team and not the Draw in the example you give? I think you got it backwards. Looking forward to your explanation.
hey charalambos - it's the draw as the price offered is greater than our calculated one. (3.8 vs 2.67). With that said, it's probably better to use this method to evaluate the shorter priced team so in this case as we think Inter Milan should be 2.67 but the offered price is 2.14 we would oppose them to win.
@@OddsTribe you are right. I apologise. I mixed the odds in the video. Napoli on BF has lower than 4.0 odds, hence it is not a value bet.
I love it💪💪💪💪
Please sir what if the game you want to compile they odds happens that in they last eight game they don't have draws is only wins.
What can you do to get home price, draw price & away price
what about pricing up a match in a two way market such as over/under or totals betting (such as over or under 1.5 ,2.5 goals, etc market)
Very good. Thks.
We divided by 8 because it was 8 games?? If u find 5 games it means u will divide them by 5???,
Good morning sir
Secondly, do you have any e-mail? Interesting model you described here...
Hello good job sir.
Do you have any idea of how I can apply same trick for goals?
hi sir if you take a look at our recent 'weighted form' version this takes into account the winning margin (amount of goals)
@@OddsTribe alright
platform name plz
Any suggestions on additional data to add in, the model?
If you take a look at our more recent one (where we use weighted form) that is a nice little modified version that is speedy to do.
Inrersting! Does it work?
Not accurate
How many games you tested this on? Whats the roi? Im fed up that internet is full of these nonsense what actually have 0 use for betting
Hey there - it is a useful starting point. Continual refining of any model is important as nothing wins on an ongoing basis.