BTC mined = all time low. BTC available to buy = all time low. BTC being bought = all time high. BTC adoption by corporations, countries, and investors = all time high. It doesn't take much to understand what's about to happen.
This is a good video and you make a strong argument. One critique - I think it’s a straw man to automatically assume you are selling Bitcoin and intend to hold USD in the interim. The steel man argument would frame it as selling Bitcoin to temporarily hold say an index fund and then get back into bitcoin. Same outcome, but pick the stronger competition for the argument.
I'm a new MSTR investor. Can you please make a video explaining share dilution, new share issuance, and why the stock can drop despite bitcoin and the bitcoin ETFs rising? Thanks.
There are many reasons, one reason is, the stock gets shorted deliberately for example, so that people will get nervous and sell, so those who shorted can buy back at the lower price. This only works as long as there are enough people to shake out I suppose, which is a lot considering how many fomo'd into it, like me. ATM is another, but that's a good think I have learned. Its a battle between your monkey brain and your knowledge and your intelligence, those who win, make decisions based on the latter, especially crypto related, which is actually a small percentage of people.
You have lots to learn. Too many countries getting in. As the value rises, the corrections are much smaller. You won’t see those kinds of levels again.
I had almost 4 BTC at one point before BTC was 10k. My goal was to flip in and out of BTC until I got to 10 but I ended up going down to 1.7 BTC before I moved by BTC to a ledger and never traded again. I wouldn't recommend trading unless you are already a profitable stock trader. It's just not as easy as it seems on the surface.
I was worried for a moment you were going to push the stupid power model, until you correctly called it ridiculous. Only realistic strategy is buy and hold. All the chart nuts are just that...nuts. Especially when chart nuts just rework their charts all the time to fit the data so their charts are 'correct'.
@@rajatsonifinance perhaps, but not worth the risk. Like you said, it's gambling. The only sure thing is buy and hold, and the Bitcoin price/value going up. I'll be interested in future economic opportunities to perhaps stake my Bitcoin and make a return on my existing Bitcoin, but I'd have to be pretty darn desperate to sell any of it.
I concur with everything you mentioned in this video! They’ve never seen anything like this before! Therefore models are not going to be able to make accurate predictions!!! 🎉
You clearly do not understand the power law or what a power law means from physics. So many people think this is going to be a super cycle. BTC is going to a million exponentially. Understand the difference between Power law and Exponential growth and then you will understand how the growth of a system/network in nature vs a traditional financial asset. One follows log/linear pattern (Exponential) and one follows a power law (log/log). Exponential means faster rise and then failure and crash example is Ethereum. Power law means sustained growth AKA BTC.
@@rajatsonifinance It means that the cycle is predictable. Buy and hold BTC is a valid long term strategy of 3+ years. Swing trade the market high is also reasonable using power law, PI cycle top, or other metrics.
Thank you, Rajat. What about MSTR, would you recommend, taking profits on MSTR though when say we reach certain levels in BTC, or perhaps the NAV seems higher than what it has been previously?
in the 2nd next halving there will be only sats as a reward for a block. is it possible to shut the citizens down of buying bitcoin. so that only the government can buy those new sats`? if it is. this is the only chance for the whole populiation to stack sats for the future without giving them to the system
i have done that with stocks and ended up with 10% of a 90% move selling covered calls. i think on things i want long term i will hedge with butterflies and condors to buy puts if necessary but the underlying will be free to move.
Now you getting it my friend :-). Bottomline, never sell your Bitcoin. 🙂 The power law just follows common sense. Good math only works if its based in reality and common sense.
This is a zero-sum game. When you buy, you effectively become exit liquidity for those who purchased earlier. Most people here would likely advise you to hodl, and wait for others to buy into the Bitcoin narrative who will then eventually become your exit liquidity. However, your best option is not to buy into the narrative blindly. Instead, approach Bitcoin with a sober perspective, recognizing it as the speculative asset it is. Seek out a variety of viewpoints to stay grounded in reality and, most importantly, take profits when opportunities arise.
Amazing Rajat Bhai... I also saw that power law previously... and wanted to trade to buy in dips... But gut feeling was that btc will always give surprises, and its not easy to predict market... Final decision: if goes up just hold, if goes down but this digital gold...
I'm trying to decide where to put my investment... BTC or MSTR. If/when BTC becomes US currency, what happens to MSTR shareholders? Are they compensated in BTC/sats when selling shares? Or what?
I think they will be able to sell for sats like right now shares of companies earnings dollars are denominated in dollars. I'd recommend starting with Bitcoin only, learning what microstrategy is doing, then buy some MSTR
I was thinking this also, but how would this work realistically, I mean how would sats per share be determined? Also, once BTC replaces USD, cost of goods and services are imagined to decrease in relation to value of BTC continuing to increase in this scenario, so wouldn't it make sense to immediately liquidate all shares owned into BTC/sats? And if there is a run on liquidating shares into sats, wouldn't this cause the value of MSTR to drop? @@rajatsonifinance
Power law or no power law, simple supply and demand says we are going a lot higher. I’m in no hurry to have to sell thankfully so I will let it play out. Hoping in the meantime that we can borrow off our BTC so that I don’t need to sell and don’t have risk of my coins being taken. I am in IBIT and MSTR too so hoping one of those 3 give me that option. Want to buy a shore house in a year but don’t want to sell other than the down payment. ✌️
All the models will be destroyed😊. No power law. Stock to flow is making more sense. I think we are in a super cycle. There is so much money entering now.
Bitcoin is a big hungry beast. If it's dominance remains, it could begin to hoover up parts of the Altcoin market. Maybe not right now, but this can't be written off as a possibility. Still holding my alts!
The fallacy of: I can pull it off. But what if it goes 10X just as you sell? Then you are the dumbest idiot, that's how I felt when sold for 600$ as btc went to 20K in a couple of months...
It’s coming. Cantor Fitzgerald is doing it today for high net worth individuals. Soon enuf that will trickle down to us retail. Buy, hodl, cold storage, borrow and pay interest vs cap gains ever while losing the asset. BTC banking is coming 2 retail b4 the next halving
@@rajatsonifinancenot as inexpensive as it should b. BTC is pristine collateral and companies like: Ledn, Unchained, and Hodlhodl want 15-18%. C my comment above
Replacing fiat currency with Bitcoin would severely constrain a government’s ability to use monetary policy as a tool for managing the economy. It would shift economic control away from the government and central banks and towards a decentralized system governed by Bitcoin’s protocol. While this could prevent certain types of mismanagement, it would also leave governments ill-equipped to respond to economic crises, promote growth, or stabilize the economy effectively. It is dillusional to think that bitcoin would replace fiat. Bitcoin is a speculative asset supported by a compelling narrative.
There will be no more 'bear market' in my view, it will probably have a flush down there and then due to geopolitical reasons only. Those new players, namely nation-states will never, ever sell
"bitcoin is the only finite asset on earth." that is very interesting. because of gold mining of asteroids etc? minerals, gasses, fossil fuels could potentially be harvested from the cosmos...
You and Bitcoin University are weekly (if not daily) listens for me. Love your work, man.
🤝🏼
Agreed
What about Bitcoin Community College? His channel is called Gen Z Bitcoin
there is great wisdom concentrated in this one phrase: Stay Humble and Stack Sats
ANSWER: NO.. HODL!!
💯💯💯
You buy bitcoin to have more purchasing power in the future, not more fiat dollars.
Is it worth investing in mstr or just buy Bitcoin
Thanks Rajat for this video
Just bought my first Bitcoin at 105k.
U got a deal compared to where BTC is going, congrats
Buy high sell low, got it 👍🏽
@@loudandproud9070 your never to late right now
Buy, Hold, live.
BTC mined = all time low.
BTC available to buy = all time low.
BTC being bought = all time high.
BTC adoption by corporations, countries, and investors = all time high.
It doesn't take much to understand what's about to happen.
Absolutely nothing. That's what. Except people selling and bitcoin's price going back down after this hype cycle comes to an end
It will be 10million in less than 5 years mark my word😊
Marked
no it won't
We’re did you get that number
This is a good video and you make a strong argument. One critique - I think it’s a straw man to automatically assume you are selling Bitcoin and intend to hold USD in the interim. The steel man argument would frame it as selling Bitcoin to temporarily hold say an index fund and then get back into bitcoin. Same outcome, but pick the stronger competition for the argument.
No my point is don't sell if you plan to hold any other asset. They will all underperform. It's fine if you spend it.
I hold because im not good enough to time it all. I just keep it simple. Im not a trader. I still watch the ups and downs daily, though.
Ditto.
I do not have the time or experience to hit the nail on the head.
A man needs to know his limitations.
I watch it but i let mine sleep.
Wise words Rajat….Bitcoin is the only thing you shouldn’t trade….The risk and regret would be unthinkable. 😢
💯💯
I'm a new MSTR investor. Can you please make a video explaining share dilution, new share issuance, and why the stock can drop despite bitcoin and the bitcoin ETFs rising? Thanks.
There are many reasons, one reason is, the stock gets shorted deliberately for example, so that people will get nervous and sell, so those who shorted can buy back at the lower price. This only works as long as there are enough people to shake out I suppose, which is a lot considering how many fomo'd into it, like me. ATM is another, but that's a good think I have learned.
Its a battle between your monkey brain and your knowledge and your intelligence, those who win, make decisions based on the latter, especially crypto related, which is actually a small percentage of people.
I have a playlist of MicroStrategy videos! Please watch them. Very useful IMO.
Great content. Subbed
Let’s come back to this video after bitcoin crashes 70-80% again
Exactly.
Let’s come back to this comment when it doesn’t
You have lots to learn. Too many countries getting in. As the value rises, the corrections are much smaller. You won’t see those kinds of levels again.
Bitcoiners will be ecstatic if it crashes. More for us to buy.
You think I'm going to be disappointed if price drops 80%? 😂
My hybrid strategy…. DCA, Hodl, large purchases when I think it’s really low.
Great video as always
Rajat, can you do a video on XRP? What are your thoughts on it?
I stick to bitcoin only. I think xrp is a scam, but haven't done a deep dive. Nothing competes with Bitcoin.
@@rajatsonifinanceagree. BTC is king!
I think we still have four year boom bust cycles, but there is no way I am selling my bitcoin to try and time it
Yes definitely possible, but too risky to try to time the market and sell
VERY GOOD ANALYSIS
Excellent advice mate.
I will always be grateful to you for waking me up and taking me out of the traditional financial system! Bitcoin is protection!
I had almost 4 BTC at one point before BTC was 10k. My goal was to flip in and out of BTC until I got to 10 but I ended up going down to 1.7 BTC before I moved by BTC to a ledger and never traded again. I wouldn't recommend trading unless you are already a profitable stock trader. It's just not as easy as it seems on the surface.
💯💯
Same!
I totally agree, I only lost 20% but enough to learn that timing the market is a lot harder than it seems. Hodling is the way to go.
I was worried for a moment you were going to push the stupid power model, until you correctly called it ridiculous.
Only realistic strategy is buy and hold. All the chart nuts are just that...nuts. Especially when chart nuts just rework their charts all the time to fit the data so their charts are 'correct'.
For all I know, it could be correct for the next cycle or two
@@rajatsonifinance perhaps, but not worth the risk. Like you said, it's gambling. The only sure thing is buy and hold, and the Bitcoin price/value going up.
I'll be interested in future economic opportunities to perhaps stake my Bitcoin and make a return on my existing Bitcoin, but I'd have to be pretty darn desperate to sell any of it.
Im 52,hold btc,,when do you take some profit to actually live and enjoy,i get tge holders who want to hold,but at what point do you take some profits
Spend as you go.
sounds great! thanks!
I concur with everything you mentioned in this video! They’ve never seen anything like this before! Therefore models are not going to be able to make accurate predictions!!! 🎉
💯💯
Ok thank you 🙏😁👍
You clearly do not understand the power law or what a power law means from physics. So many people think this is going to be a super cycle. BTC is going to a million exponentially. Understand the difference between Power law and Exponential growth and then you will understand how the growth of a system/network in nature vs a traditional financial asset. One follows log/linear pattern (Exponential) and one follows a power law (log/log). Exponential means faster rise and then failure and crash example is Ethereum. Power law means sustained growth AKA BTC.
I didn't say I have an in depth knowledge of it lol
@@rajatsonifinance It means that the cycle is predictable. Buy and hold BTC is a valid long term strategy of 3+ years. Swing trade the market high is also reasonable using power law, PI cycle top, or other metrics.
Thank you, Rajat. What about MSTR, would you recommend, taking profits on MSTR though when say we reach certain levels in BTC, or perhaps the NAV seems higher than what it has been previously?
Yeah I would. MSTR should be converted to cold storage Bitcoin because over the long term it will massively outperform
If btc does break through the resistance then it's not power of law. Which means does power of law actually exists
What about BCH and LTC? Is it worth buying or holding on pls?
No.
Great heads up!!!
What hardware wallet would you recommend?
Trezor, cold card
I have a referral link for trezor in the description!
in the 2nd next halving there will be only sats as a reward for a block. is it possible to shut the citizens down of buying bitcoin. so that only the government can buy those new sats`?
if it is. this is the only chance for the whole populiation to stack sats for the future without giving them to the system
Great video
"All models are wrong. Some are useful."
IDK whether or to what extent these are useful.
Don’t be stupid. Make money. Don’t round trip your bags
Go for it
i have done that with stocks and ended up with 10% of a 90% move selling covered calls. i think on things i want long term i will hedge with butterflies and condors to buy puts if necessary but the underlying will be free to move.
Great content. 🙏
Now you getting it my friend :-). Bottomline, never sell your Bitcoin. 🙂 The power law just follows common sense. Good math only works if its based in reality and common sense.
i bought at 108k now its 104k should have waited )?
We all have done that. But the dips. Now you know. Hold and buy more dips. You will be fine. Time is your friend.
This is a zero-sum game. When you buy, you effectively become exit liquidity for those who purchased earlier. Most people here would likely advise you to hodl, and wait for others to buy into the Bitcoin narrative who will then eventually become your exit liquidity.
However, your best option is not to buy into the narrative blindly. Instead, approach Bitcoin with a sober perspective, recognizing it as the speculative asset it is. Seek out a variety of viewpoints to stay grounded in reality and, most importantly, take profits when opportunities arise.
There will always be slight pullbacks. Just relax and dollar cost average to stack more.
Amazing Rajat Bhai...
I also saw that power law previously... and wanted to trade to buy in dips...
But gut feeling was that btc will always give surprises, and its not easy to predict market...
Final decision: if goes up just hold, if goes down but this digital gold...
This model already accounts for exponential moves and shows that the price will always snap back to the average.
What's the point if you just hold on to your wealth and just let it grow naturally. Less stress this way.
I'm trying to decide where to put my investment... BTC or MSTR. If/when BTC becomes US currency, what happens to MSTR shareholders? Are they compensated in BTC/sats when selling shares? Or what?
I think they will be able to sell for sats like right now shares of companies earnings dollars are denominated in dollars. I'd recommend starting with Bitcoin only, learning what microstrategy is doing, then buy some MSTR
I was thinking this also, but how would this work realistically, I mean how would sats per share be determined? Also, once BTC replaces USD, cost of goods and services are imagined to decrease in relation to value of BTC continuing to increase in this scenario, so wouldn't it make sense to immediately liquidate all shares owned into BTC/sats? And if there is a run on liquidating shares into sats, wouldn't this cause the value of MSTR to drop? @@rajatsonifinance
I would buy MSTR make killer gains, then sell it just before the bear market and buy more btc.😊
Power law or no power law, simple supply and demand says we are going a lot higher. I’m in no hurry to have to sell thankfully so I will let it play out. Hoping in the meantime that we can borrow off our BTC so that I don’t need to sell and don’t have risk of my coins being taken. I am in IBIT and MSTR too so hoping one of those 3 give me that option. Want to buy a shore house in a year but don’t want to sell other than the down payment. ✌️
All the models will be destroyed😊. No power law. Stock to flow is making more sense. I think we are in a super cycle. There is so much money entering now.
PREACH!!!
Just pull up any other BTC/fiat pair and see what happens to the chart when the currency inflates a lot.
Bitcoin is a big hungry beast. If it's dominance remains, it could begin to hoover up parts of the Altcoin market. Maybe not right now, but this can't be written off as a possibility. Still holding my alts!
Power Opinion 😂
With Bitcoin, you have a once in a life time opportunity to invest in the new currency 😊🎉❤
Wouldn't trade Bitcoin for anything on this or any other planet.
👏🏼👏🏼👏🏼
Not when u can use as collateral soon enuf
The fallacy of: I can pull it off. But what if it goes 10X just as you sell? Then you are the dumbest idiot, that's how I felt when sold for 600$ as btc went to 20K in a couple of months...
💯💯
This is a lesson that most people must learn by themselves, sadly.
The US gov will not buy they will mine bitcoin. Trump was talking about using lot of energy.
I look forward to a time when you can borrow against Bitcoin.
You can already do that, but I think the methods of doing it aren't as secure as I'd like them to be
@@rajatsonifinance what needs to happen for this to be secure? Timeframe?
It’s coming. Cantor Fitzgerald is doing it today for high net worth individuals. Soon enuf that will trickle down to us retail. Buy, hodl, cold storage, borrow and pay interest vs cap gains ever while losing the asset. BTC banking is coming 2 retail b4 the next halving
@@rajatsonifinancenot as inexpensive as it should b. BTC is pristine collateral and companies like: Ledn, Unchained, and Hodlhodl want 15-18%. C my comment above
@@shtfvan8084look at my comment
Sell whatever you like. Except your Bitcoin. No need to do anything clever, just Hodl. The easiest thing in the world.
HODL has gone from the easiest action to the hardest. At these prices it’s hard not to take profits
Replacing fiat currency with Bitcoin would severely constrain a government’s ability to use monetary policy as a tool for managing the economy. It would shift economic control away from the government and central banks and towards a decentralized system governed by Bitcoin’s protocol. While this could prevent certain types of mismanagement, it would also leave governments ill-equipped to respond to economic crises, promote growth, or stabilize the economy effectively. It is dillusional to think that bitcoin would replace fiat. Bitcoin is a speculative asset supported by a compelling narrative.
They're the ones who create economic crises, why would we want them to respond to the problems they created?
There will be no more 'bear market' in my view, it will probably have a flush down there and then due to geopolitical reasons only. Those new players, namely nation-states will never, ever sell
You are simply WRONG.
Nothing goes up forever. It would be nice though.
Nothing is finite like Bitcoin
Thank God its not another Microstrategy Vid
Yes if it has anything to with microstrategy. I won’t watch.
👍
He gets more views on those videos, don’t get mad at what works 🤷🏻♂️
Mstr is good to have in your portfolio though your majority should be bitcoin itself.
I love the MSTR vids….. MSTR is interesting
That wouldn’t happen…… no market goes up forever 😂😂😂🤦🏽♂️
Let's see
My boy british hodl thinks this is rubbish...
I used to think it was rubbish too. Watch the conversation I had with Sina and make up your own mind.
"bitcoin is the only finite asset on earth." that is very interesting. because of gold mining of asteroids etc? minerals, gasses, fossil fuels could potentially be harvested from the cosmos...
Nobody knows how much gold exists, And I bet you will be able to create gold just like diamonds in the near future
@@rajatsonifinance ask Libya how that worked out ,
Have you considered what Bitcoin will do to welfare?
Not really, but all social programs seem to have become a business.
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