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Watching your channel over the years I’ve learned that holding multiple convincing arguments or theories in your head without discrediting either one because they contradict or disagree with one another is a very rare ability and I very much thank you for that.
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This is just my opinion but I like to think that bitcoin cycle tops are a self-fulfilling-prophecy. Any theory that gains enough traction will "become" correct. In the previous cycles of bitcoin, all of the different theories sort of lined up at more or less the same time. But last cycle they diverged and people were worried that half the throeies will become wrong, then we got two peaks and somehow all of the theories became correct again. I think that that is amazing.
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Id love a video comparing btc top to typical alt tops. This is something ive been researching as alts top after the btc top, and their price action could lead to similar confirmations of overall market top
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It’s a possibility. Lots of sentiment top signals are here already. Fartcoin, meme coins, some alts knocking on way inflated ath from 2021. Moon boys on the news callling for 250k btc. If Q1 is too good it will top out. Maybe double top like last cycle but I’m not sticking around. Always get caught with my ass on backwards trying to time the top exactly. Or when I do time the top on the exact day like 2021 I don’t follow my strategy of selling everything. Started scaling out already. Not risking my bag for a 50% gain or a 2x if I can pull out early and 10x doing a proper bear market DCA next time.
6:39 - ROI from bottom. With 2017 and 2021 the ROI is different as they were the bull market years. If cycle plays out shouldn’t you take the ROI from bottom to the halving years( which is the current year) but you’re taking 2 data points(2017,2021) which is bull market years which will give you a higher ROI and 1 data point from halving years(2024). Or did I miss something. Love the info anyway.
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If we get LTC and the cycle tops for BTC, is in January. It would be interesting to see if others make a definitive all-time high. If not, this would be the first cycle with no true alt season. That would be really bad. If we get the regular RTC and BTC peaks in Q4 of 2025 that would give alts enough time to run.
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Wait the most importent think you said.!! if the Risk metric is 0.8-0.9 , If monthly RSI is 90, if PI cycle is 0.9 and if the Stock to flow is lower high, Doesnt matter which month it is. Time to sell!
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Great thesis, I like the way you explore many angles on the theory, I never heard on the H2 actually. Thanks for sharing this, love from Cardano community
Ben, great analysis. Could you make a video sometime going over how your BTC risk metric is formulated (without revealing too much of your secret sauce, of course)?
🧮The formulas for *Ben’s Risk Metrics* are not published. Ben has mentioned-in previous videos-that it factors in: price, time, volatility and diminishing returns. 24/7 access-to Ben’s Risk Metrics-is available for ITC Premium subscribers. 👁🗨Check out the *ITC Premium Pro* plan: Get access to👉Ben’s Weekly *Ask Me Anything(AMA)* Livestream✔️Premium Videos, Charts & Indicators, Risk Dashboard and more! Watch an ITC Premium preview on the ITC website: *see Ben’s pinned message* #DYOR #MakeYourOwnConclusions🤔
The comparison should be made with gold rather than with QQQ. The gold price saw almost a decade long bull market after the gold ETF was introduced in the US. Bitcoin might see the same phenomena. Just a peasant's thought. This is a good video though. Thanks.
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First off, long time follower, thanks for the years of vids. In more than a few of your videos, you show the average performance of the more recent halving years and highlight how much the current cycle is tracking them. Can you do the same for the past few post halving years as an indication of what could happen in 2025. Thanks
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Hey ben it could be a good idea if you could track the exchanges ads to know where we are in the market. When they start slowing down maybe its a sign of a top 🤔. Hope u see this message. Thank you for everything.
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I had a house on the last bull run and i saw it dropping from 64 to nothing then on the dead cat bounce I sold to break even :-(, this time im a scared cat, lot less money in the game and looking to hold my gains. Thank you for the video, it does help us a lot to hope for the best but be ready for the worse.
There is an argument that suggests that BTC does not have its own cyclicality and is rather sensitive to changes on the macro global liquidity measurements due to its nature as a monetary inflation hedge. How do you reconcile the 2 views? is BTC cyclicality a result of global liquidity fluctuations over long term horizons? or is BTC cyclicality just coincident with the global liquidity cycle?
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You have not made a lot of videoes about general adoption - and how it could influence the price trends long term. It would be very interestning to see a video of you talking about how bitcoin potentially can break out of a lot of old patterns - if adoption becomes significant. Companies , banks or even countries adopting Bitcoin on a larger scale. Sure, some natural bull and bear markets will occur from now on to the next 10 years, but I find it hard to belive it will be tracking previous cycles very close. Soon I think the classical 4 year bull and bear cycles might be a relic of the past. Hope you see this comment!
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Benjamin , thank you for the video Can you do in the near future an analysis for OTHERS market where you identify fractals , and when it could be the bottom and top
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Did we ever get an ATH the year before the top? I’m listening to the idea where the 4 year cycle announces when the low will Be but the top can be anywhere in the cycle
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Well, here's a thought, or possibly more of a question: so you didn't mention the altcoin market and ITS correlation to the positon of Bitcoin within the 'cycle'. Is there a reason for this 🤔 don't you think that a real altcoin season ((TOTAL3-USDT)/BTC nearing previous highs) has just as much merit as the indicators mentioned in this video?
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Great video Ben. Thank you. I am just surprised you didn’t talk about the possibility that the market could top in april 2025 (kind of like in 2021). I have heard to talk about this possibility as well.
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Hey Ben, have you considered who the president was that was elected for 2000 and whether he was considered good or bad for markets - vs. Trump for 2025? Would that make any difference? Regarding the QQQ 2000 comparison. That dip was when the Internet bubble burst, right? Oh gosh... I sure hope we don't have a Bitcoin bubble burst 🙂
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Hey Ben, whenever you talk about Nov 2021 potentially not being the real peak that year, do you not think that it was a stunted cycle because of the China mining ban AND the Tera/Luna collapse both which took place in Nov 2021. If it wasn't for that would you not think we would have seen the BTC blow off top everyone was expecting? I haven't seen you address that factor unless i've missed it in your previous videos.
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Okay i understand bitcoin cycles and if i was holding BTC i would probably be sleeping until end of summer 2025. But i would love to understand how to measure my exit for altcoins because last cycle i was 4x and one day i lost profits because i was not prepared.
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You should watch this one minute clip again-to remember exactly what Ben said once BTC.D reached his 60% target: x.com/itc_crypto/status/1851478899949031900 ✔️ 👁🗨Check out the *ITC Premium Pro* plan: Get access to👉Ben’s Weekly *Ask Me Anything(AMA)* Livestream✔️Premium Videos, Charts & Indicators, Risk Dashboard and more! Watch an ITC Premium preview on the ITC website: *see Ben’s pinned message* #DYOR #MakeYourOwnConclusions🤔
Hey Ben, do you think this “ strategic bitcoin reserve” and pro crypto politicians will change the average 4 year cycle we are used to? Do you ever see a day where this super cycle theory plays out?
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Into The Cryptoverse Premium SALE:
intothecryptoverse.com
☝️🧐-notice how the *Real Ben* is highlighted and TH-cam verified☑️
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is there a way to pay with CRYPTO?
@@Soultzzz Yes, *paying with crypto* is available for Lifetime, Annual and/or 6-Month “Pro Plan” subscriptions… it’s not currently an option for month-to-month (monthly) subscriptions.
Now million dollar question to you Ben. did you sell any bitcoin at last week top around 109K last week?
Sorry babe, I can't go to bed right now, Another Cowen's banger just dropped.
😂
exactly
Exactly what I am doing right now lol
pfft like any of you nerds have girlfriends...
Watching your channel over the years I’ve learned that holding multiple convincing arguments or theories in your head without discrediting either one because they contradict or disagree with one another is a very rare ability and I very much thank you for that.
I needed a Cowen Hour this week. Thanks Ben!
So, possible selling dates are Q1 2025, or Q3 2025 or Q4 2025.
Whichever I decide to go with will probably be the worst time. 😂
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Us.
As the saying goes, immediately after I sell, it pumps.
You can sell 30% in Q1 2025; if it keeps going up, sell 30 more % again in Q3 2025; if it does not stop, sell 30 more % in Q4 2025.
@@SamuelBSRWhat ifs sell 30% in Q1 and it is the top. Losing lots of gains for the 70% of your port
44:15-45:20 is genuinely such a gem, everyone just needs to keep this in mind when navigating the forthcoming top.
This is all I needed to watch.
Agreed, also strengthens that idea that April was last cycle's real top.
Woke up at 3am, can’t go back to sleep. Now I’m here.
This is just my opinion but I like to think that bitcoin cycle tops are a self-fulfilling-prophecy. Any theory that gains enough traction will "become" correct. In the previous cycles of bitcoin, all of the different theories sort of lined up at more or less the same time. But last cycle they diverged and people were worried that half the throeies will become wrong, then we got two peaks and somehow all of the theories became correct again. I think that that is amazing.
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Holy shit Ben 845k subs, i started following when you had less than 40k congratulations 🎊 1million this cycle 🎉
I got really nervous of the QQQ comparison ….
If only Ben was on Real Vision back in November 2021....
I still remember experts on there calling for $10,000 ETH and $2000 SOL ....
They'll all be doing the same thing again this cycle
Back to feature length programming. I like it!
Id love a video comparing btc top to typical alt tops. This is something ive been researching as alts top after the btc top, and their price action could lead to similar confirmations of overall market top
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Q1 2025 peak would be brutal
Ever thought about Q4 2024 peak? Haha. I’m 80% out already.
It’s a possibility. Lots of sentiment top signals are here already. Fartcoin, meme coins, some alts knocking on way inflated ath from 2021. Moon boys on the news callling for 250k btc. If Q1 is too good it will top out. Maybe double top like last cycle but I’m not sticking around. Always get caught with my ass on backwards trying to time the top exactly. Or when I do time the top on the exact day like 2021 I don’t follow my strategy of selling everything.
Started scaling out already. Not risking my bag for a 50% gain or a 2x if I can pull out early and 10x doing a proper bear market DCA next time.
@@housecizmfor the sake of our bags I hope you will regret that decision.
Great analysis! Great to see all the options! Thanks Ben.
6:39 - ROI from bottom. With 2017 and 2021 the ROI is different as they were the bull market years. If cycle plays out shouldn’t you take the ROI from bottom to the halving years( which is the current year) but you’re taking 2 data points(2017,2021) which is bull market years which will give you a higher ROI and 1 data point from halving years(2024). Or did I miss something. Love the info anyway.
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So based off that market cycle ROI we would have a scary drop soon and quick bounce back go put a new higher high.
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If we get LTC and the cycle tops for BTC, is in January. It would be interesting to see if others make a definitive all-time high. If not, this would be the first cycle with no true alt season. That would be really bad. If we get the regular RTC and BTC peaks in Q4 of 2025 that would give alts enough time to run.
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this man’s a genius.
Wait the most importent think you said.!! if the Risk metric is 0.8-0.9 , If monthly RSI is 90, if PI cycle is 0.9 and if the Stock to flow is lower high, Doesnt matter which month it is. Time to sell!
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this is one master class.. feels like going to back to Uni. and listening to the lectures of your fav. prof. :D
Great thesis, I like the way you explore many angles on the theory, I never heard on the H2 actually. Thanks for sharing this, love from Cardano community
Ben, great analysis. Could you make a video sometime going over how your BTC risk metric is formulated (without revealing too much of your secret sauce, of course)?
🧮The formulas for *Ben’s Risk Metrics* are not published. Ben has mentioned-in previous videos-that it factors in: price, time, volatility and diminishing returns. 24/7 access-to Ben’s Risk Metrics-is available for ITC Premium subscribers.
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The comparison should be made with gold rather than with QQQ. The gold price saw almost a decade long bull market after the gold ETF was introduced in the US. Bitcoin might see the same phenomena. Just a peasant's thought. This is a good video though. Thanks.
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I think both comparisons are different.
First off, long time follower, thanks for the years of vids.
In more than a few of your videos, you show the average performance of the more recent halving years and highlight how much the current cycle is tracking them.
Can you do the same for the past few post halving years as an indication of what could happen in 2025.
Thanks
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That's the perfect video length. I see my comment upvote regarding this issue in the previous video was a good investment.
I love these long videos, thank you Ben
Hey ben it could be a good idea if you could track the exchanges ads to know where we are in the market. When they start slowing down maybe its a sign of a top 🤔. Hope u see this message. Thank you for everything.
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Thanks Ben! Appreciate your time and wisdom!
Ben talking about a post halving year in 1971. It gives me urges to watch back to the future 1
have a huge respect for u mr benjamin cowen, i love all your content and learn a lot from u
Another great video, thanks Ben
I had a house on the last bull run and i saw it dropping from 64 to nothing then on the dead cat bounce I sold to break even :-(, this time im a scared cat, lot less money in the game and looking to hold my gains. Thank you for the video, it does help us a lot to hope for the best but be ready for the worse.
There is an argument that suggests that BTC does not have its own cyclicality and is rather sensitive to changes on the macro global liquidity measurements due to its nature as a monetary inflation hedge. How do you reconcile the 2 views? is BTC cyclicality a result of global liquidity fluctuations over long term horizons? or is BTC cyclicality just coincident with the global liquidity cycle?
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You have not made a lot of videoes about general adoption - and how it could influence the price trends long term. It would be very interestning to see a video of you talking about how bitcoin potentially can break out of a lot of old patterns - if adoption becomes significant. Companies , banks or even countries adopting Bitcoin on a larger scale. Sure, some natural bull and bear markets will occur from now on to the next 10 years, but I find it hard to belive it will be tracking previous cycles very close. Soon I think the classical 4 year bull and bear cycles might be a relic of the past. Hope you see this comment!
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Another great video by Cowen!
Your amazing Ben thank you
Excellent video as always , thanks Ben
This so useful. Thank you!
dude you are SO DAMN GOOD!!
Ben, this has been just one of your Masterpieces! Bravo!
Can you do an update on eth
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"Don't let a good bubble go to waste" quote to remember heading into 2025🎉
Love the different analysis. Thanks...
Great information, thank you.
Great analysis Ben! God bless! 😊
THANKSSS!!! I need this so much
Thanks Ben! Helps
This was a great video, well done!
What does layering the total alt coin weekly over btc weekly look?
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man the QQQ comparison makes me think we really don't know much about the world we live in .mind blowing
Thanks Ben. I learned alot today. Taking some profits off the table has never been a bad idea.
Thats if profits outweigh the taxes owed, in my experience, it's too close that it makes no sense to take the risk
Brilliant! Love this podcast!
This was some high end information. Thank you for your free knowledge
Finally. I'll be able to sleep. Thank you, Ben.
Great stuff, Thanks Ben
Great info and video,mate🎉👌👊💪
Very good video, thanks Benjamin! :)
Benjamin , thank you for the video
Can you do in the near future an analysis for OTHERS market where you identify fractals , and when it could be the bottom and top
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Great video Ben! Thank you
Thank you
Can you talk about the deminishing returns.. I had 11 months after halving for the peak.
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Did we ever get an ATH the year before the top?
I’m listening to the idea where the 4 year cycle announces when the low will
Be but the top can be anywhere in the cycle
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Thanks for the video, a great perspective.
Thanks for another gem 💎 Mr. Cowen
Well, here's a thought, or possibly more of a question:
so you didn't mention the altcoin market and ITS correlation to the positon of Bitcoin within the 'cycle'. Is there a reason for this 🤔 don't you think that a real altcoin season ((TOTAL3-USDT)/BTC nearing previous highs) has just as much merit as the indicators mentioned in this video?
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Was going to bed .. 😅
Same 😂
Ben doesn't sleep.
But now you can’t help but wonder…..
I just wanted to thank you for the amazing content and knowledge that you share!
Thanks Ben 👍🏻
Greatings from Portugal
Thank you!
I really hope we get an altcoin season
I love Professor Ben's math statistics class
Back to our usual upload time for our nightly lullabies.
Great video Ben. Thank you. I am just surprised you didn’t talk about the possibility that the market could top in april 2025 (kind of like in 2021). I have heard to talk about this possibility as well.
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Great Keep good work man .
One of your best Ben. Now do ETH.
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Hey Ben, have you considered who the president was that was elected for 2000 and whether he was considered good or bad for markets - vs. Trump for 2025? Would that make any difference? Regarding the QQQ 2000 comparison. That dip was when the Internet bubble burst, right? Oh gosh... I sure hope we don't have a Bitcoin bubble burst 🙂
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Is it possible to have an alt season without quantitative easing?
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Yes. lol just needs mania
Then it would be like 2021 fast and kinda not worth it
Hey Ben, whenever you talk about Nov 2021 potentially not being the real peak that year, do you not think that it was a stunted cycle because of the China mining ban AND the Tera/Luna collapse both which took place in Nov 2021. If it wasn't for that would you not think we would have seen the BTC blow off top everyone was expecting? I haven't seen you address that factor unless i've missed it in your previous videos.
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So alt season could be cancelled and we all have to go home?
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thanks Ben
Good one!
Thats a godly thumbnail ben 😮
Thanks Ben for the video , on the 10-3 , when the rsi cross 50, it refine recession signal
Amazing video
When altseason?
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Thanks ben been slowly converting to eth for now. Maybe another dominance peak comes
This market can be so brutal man
Now million dollar question to Ben. did you sell any bitcoin at 108K last week??
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Thanks Ben!
Unbelievable good thinking veery nice video thank you❤
November 2021 was the top because addresses with 100, 1000, and 10000 btc were increasing. The real top is April 2021
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Does the fact that BTC hit a new high before the halving this cycle? Could that also be an indicator that we are possibly ahead of schedule?
Yes
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This was perfect analysis. Thank u Ben
Can you do a video on risk levels ? Christmas special ha
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Okay i understand bitcoin cycles and if i was holding BTC i would probably be sleeping until end of summer 2025. But i would love to understand how to measure my exit for altcoins because last cycle i was 4x and one day i lost profits because i was not prepared.
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Very nice video
Ben, we need BtcD video
You should watch this one minute clip again-to remember exactly what Ben said once BTC.D reached his 60% target: x.com/itc_crypto/status/1851478899949031900 ✔️
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Great video
Hey Ben, do you think this “ strategic bitcoin reserve” and pro crypto politicians will change the average 4 year cycle we are used to? Do you ever see a day where this super cycle theory plays out?
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we need a video on ALOTS
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