"How early can a driver clinch the title?" - A casual look at points
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Spicy deal.
How about no?
I almost died with laughter at the most appropriate description of cheating as “suspiciously disastrous reliability issues” 🤣🤣🤣
@@andylynch3411 C R A S H G A T E I N S I N G A P O R E
What about thr constructors championship? How quickly could a team win that?
I had this question for so long but I was too lazy to do the math
Ahahaha same, me after every race
*Maths
Matthew Lee math*
Depends where in this huge world you live whether or not you know it as ‘math’ or ‘maths’. Because diversity.
Maths. You were taught the incorrect English.
Lewis liked this and added it to 'Watch Later'
IT was George Russell who disliked and unsubscribed. He realised that learning about he points systems was just well pointless (pun intended)
😂
Mate he fucking downloaded it and added it at his hot bar
Yo wtf hahaha
@@nazoooom that gold
Even in chainbear theory videos Hamilton still wins the championship 😂
coincidence
*_I THINK NOT_*
Seniac folowing F1 didn't know that
Tell me who your favourite driver is, you fool!
Seniac, you fool! Get back to restaurant tycoon!
@@davidl4325 I think I've seen him in the comments of an F1 highlights video 2 years ago
It's impossible for drivers to be on 0 points...
Sad Williams noises
actually made me lol
They have fast pits tho do that counts for something
Its impossible for EVERY driver to be on 0 points
@@dink7458 if every team had grosjean it would be possible because nobody would finish
Whenever I think of this subject all I think of is how Schumacher won the title in July in the 2002 season, I mean JULY!?
Insane, there was still 6 races to go!
and different point system, I dont think that would be possible now
He had won 96 points out of 110. Second place Juan Pablo Montoya had only 34
@@semipro2810 Er, did you watch all of this clip? Because it does answer that question. (4 minutes 50 secs mark or so.)
Think that must be the record for earliest to title won surely? Question is, willHamilton beat it? Clearly not this year, maybe next?
To be fair, Michael benefitted from the Williams’ terrible reliability. Montoya could have had a shot at the 2002 title but Williams were either incompetent (Spain), unlucky (Brazil), or unreliable (Canada) at - genuinely - almost every race!
"so be glad that didn't happen."
no, but, for that hypothetical to be possible, the whole field cept hamilton will be the midfield, and must be the closest racing ever seen in history. And if we straight up forgot about hamilton, that would be the most amazing season to watch ever. (in theory)
*2020 season has entered the chat*
2023 season has entered the chat
Chain Bear:How early can you clinch the world title?
Schumacher: yes
Yes
Foch ?
@@moses8758 Smash
@@RNCHFND my
@@Fred_the_1996 DOOR
6:44 except hamilton and bottas alternate between coming first and second each race
James: Chain Bear F1, it's James
"Everyone ends up with equal points,
Except Hamilton"
Oof
@Ved Singh tis a yoke dude
@Nils Teegen Bruh, smh
The biggest joke in this video is that Ferrari has a Strategy :D
You will not have the strategy
The consistent strategy Ferrari has seemed to use in 2019 is to try to hurt LeClerk's chances of beating Vettel, instead of trying to focus on doing better than Mercedes.
This has aged well
The great ferrari masterplan
Would be interesting to have this kind of thought for constructor championship as well
Yes that would be great!
Ok i did the spread sheet. If dominant team gets all 1-2 and second team gets all 3-4 positions in the 16th race it would be over, with 272 points difference with only 220 points left.
Difference Abvailable points
1 17 880
2 34 836
3 51 792
4 68 748
5 85 704
6 102 660
7 119 616
8 136 572
9 153 528
10 170 484
11 187 440
12 204 396
13 221 352
14 238 308
15 255 264
16 272 220
17 289 176
"So be glad, that couldn't happen"
2002 Michael Schumacher : "Hold my beer"
Williams: WRITE THAT DOWN
lame dude
5:51 This is why I think the current points system is the best we've had. Rewards victory more than 2003 but also allows regularity to play a role. Perfectly balanced.
But the sport could benefit from systems where the gap to the next score is smaller in the top.
This would keep the title open for longer and really value reliability, while keeping the midfield crazy in battles.
It's good, but I think 19 for 2nd would be better. The difference between 2 and 3 is the same as between 3 and 4 (no podium) with 3 pts while victory brings +7pts ! 19 pts for 2nd would be more balanced
They need to extend the points down to 15th position since there's way less retirements nowadays. And that makes 10 drivers currently racing for nothing when out of the points if they're too far behind the 10th position
@@JNST2023 exactly, I really don't like the fact that 10 positions do it all for nothing. They absolutely should extend the points to 15 as - most of the time - 15 drivers finish the race, and if not, I would say a driver who doesn't finish the race just doesn't get points. For example, the 6th car to retire just doesn't get the points for 15th place.
@@rensvanampting234 they wouldn't anyway (if they don't retire really late into the race). If you don't complete the race 90%, you're not classified and don't get points, no matter how many people retired before you
Can we just appreciate the amount of time and math this must have taken him...
Respect mate
Not much math, but time? Oh hell, that was needed a lot
This kind of thing is what spreadsheets are for. Let the math work itself out.
@@Lightning_Lance yes but writing all the conditions takes a ton of time anyway
@@Anankin12 I just wanted to know. And it took me 4mins. It´s 2 simple equations and the rest is copy/paste. Formatting may take even more time.
Amazing video, the mad thing this always reminds me of is Schumacher in 2002 because he won the championship in Race 11 (admittedly out of 17), but considering the earliest he could’ve won would’ve been Race 8 or 9, the fact he was only a couple of races late will always be mental to me
I also always imagined: "what if we give 20 points for the 1st and 1 point for 20th place, and all the point were given one by one?" now I saw a liltle answer for that
That would be the only way williams got any points
Bottas the wing man... even in simulations.
Good simulations reflect life.
3:30
This isn't the most ideal algorithm. When we get to race 4 some one is already on 25 points, where it is very possible for the highest to still be 18:
BOT: 18 0 0 0
LEC: 0 18 0 0
VER: 0 0 18 0
VET: 0 0 0 18
GAS: 15 2 1 0 etc...
Overall there will be 254 points to distribute between 19 drivers giving an average of 13.36.
Furthermore: at race 11, there will be 836 points to distribure between 19 players, averaging 44 points each. This is theoretically possible:
11 racers score 18 15 10 1 and then bottom 10 for the remainder.
3 racers score 12 12 12 8
1 scores 12 12 8 8 2 2
1 scores 8 8 8 8 8 2 2
1 scores 8 6 6 6 4 4 4 2 2 2
2 score 6 6 6 6 4 4 4 4 2 2.
Of cause with 10 races left, they will all still be able to catch Hamilton.
But with the 1991 points: After 11 races the average is 9.36.
It is possible for 5 racers to get 10 points and the rest to get 9:
5 get 6 4
6 get 6 3
5 get 4 3 2
1 gets 4 2 2 1
2 get 2 2 1 1 1 1 1
Hamilton has 110 points with 100 points remaining... but any of the 5 who can still reach 110 will have fewer race wins and come 2nd.
Thank you. I just came here to comment the same thing. HAM could clinch after 11 races due to the tie breaker.
Pretty interesting video! I made the math for the 2003 system, having less races made it more interesting in a way when you thing about "how many races before the end of the season" instead of "how many races from the start". Really cool to see all the variations and cases you've analyzed.
This reminds me of the 2007 season. Ham and ALO fighting taking away points from each other. Then Kimi scoops the WDC from under them. Thats why teams try to have a #1.. There is a reason James is in charge of Merc strategy instead of us.
3:57 Verstappen 2nd in the championship, 453 points behind
Could you do a video on stalls and the anti stall system?
It is a very simple concept if you've ever driven a manual car. All anti-stall does is shut off the engine if it sees that the engine is going to stall.
@@jorge8596 I'm no expert but wouldn't "disconnect" be a better term than "shut off".... Shut off seems like the core thing you want to avoid with an anti-stall system...
I always wanted to ask...what do u use for this infographics and tables...I'm very curious!
Most possibly excel
'Red Bull focus on 1 driver'
Shows picture of Gasly.
Lol that was cold ❄
@@LawAndBedlum Who's laughing now?
You forgot the reserve drivers, if they run races and score points they can push down the theoretical championship even earlier in the 'everyone else equalizes points' scenario.
Even in hypothetical events, Hamilton is dominating
2020: Valterri Bottas wins the title in Australia.
Quick math heads-up: This algorythm starting about 3:10 isn't the most accurate method to count the lowest number of points the second driver may accumulate after n races. In this example everything is ok, but if the number of races was 22, then your algorythm would say that you need 13 (out of 22) races to clinch the title, while 12 is sufficient (2nd driver may have as much as 45, if not 44 points after 12 races - here it's as much as 58).
Anyway great material, truly interesting observations.
Can confirm. It turns out that its "better" for creating a gap, over a long season, to concentrate on "packing" the points to create the average result. There are 76 points on offer for 2nd-20th places on each race, an average of 4 points per driver. It turns out that it is possible to "pack" those points such that 19 drivers have exactly 48 after 12 races:
6 drivers have: 2 second places, 1 fourth place = 18 + 18 + 12 = 48 points
4 drivers have: 3 third places, and 3 tenth places = 15 + 15 + 15 + 1 + 1 + 1 = 48 points
6 drivers have: 2 fifth places, 2 sixth places, and 2 seventh places = 10 + 10 + 8 + 8 + 6 + 6 = 48 points
That leaves us with three drivers, 6 unassigned fourth places finishes, and 12 eighth and ninths:
3 drivers have: 2 fourth places, 4 eighth places, 4 ninth places, and 2 tenth places = 12 + 12 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 4 + 2 + 2 + 2 + 2 = 48 points
1 driver has: 12 first places, 12 fastest laps = 26 * 12 = 312 points
The gap is 264 points, and there are 260 points on offer, so the title could be clinched 1 race past the halfway mark next year.
(edit: simplified per my later post)
I suppose I'd've made that easier on myself by pairing off third place and tenth place finishes, there's an obvious 16-point symmetry there.
I believe this is equivalent to the minimum cover problem which is NP-complete. So ChainBear uses a greedy algorithm which are used in practice to get around that unfortunate fact but don't guarantee optimality in all cases.
I believe this is equivalent to the minimum cover problem which is NP-complete. So ChainBear uses a greedy algorithm which are used in practice to get around that unfortunate fact but don't guarantee optimality in all cases.
*Michael Schumacher liked this video*
And we learn: in the End, Hamilton will be world Champion
Now: what is the lowest average finishes to still win the championship
I feel like Kimi could win the championship with no podiums, if anyone was going to do it, it’s him
Nice video. Makes me think about how early Schumacher got the title in 2002.
Great video! I would love to see a similar video focused around constructor points scenarios rather than drivers.
5:46 look at how beautiful the Points for all (20 - 1) graph is 😄
A truly competitive F1 championship!!
I am still amazed by these videos. Very well constructed. Superbly explained.
This video is madness . I mean, it was a super hard and complex topic and you made it look easy. Really pal, congratz
So good! Chain Beat Bear puts in the work to make things so easily understandable. Quality f1 content on TH-cam.
Well, looks like Max is attempting this challenge this year
failed
This can be a good interview/test question. Add some twists like decide between 3rd, 4th, 5th etc with a different point system and this can fuck you up seriously
This was great analysis! But you've forgotten the "James factor" whereby he randomly calls up a driver and tells them to let Hamilton pass
All this 'makes my head hurts'.
A fascinating look at the points system. Also shows that Lewis isn't running away with the title in the way many people think.
We need season where driver doesn't win a race but wins championship
last time i was this early the championship was still interesting
This video was as interesting as the question who will win the F1 championship this year.
the coincidence being that Michael Schumacher has won world titles in Hungary.
Joeri Marcelis So have I, Same team, F1 2019 110%
It would be great doing a video about the changes on the results of previous championships (2003, 2007, 2008) with the current point system :D
Great video. Many people don’t appreciate the nuance of points systems when suggesting alternatives. The current system is very good, with the exception of FL bonus point rubbish. Really enjoyed that.
"Its James" makes much more sense now.
3:20 Russell the only one with no points after only 2 rounds so true
i wanna say thank you for doing the job that nobody wanted to do but know the answer
It seems like the algorithm of figuring out the least amount of points for the second place after X rounds you used was to take the distribution after X-1 race and then greedily applying the biggest points to the person with the least amount of points yet. This doesn’t produce the optimal result.
Consider 4 drivers, 2nd place giving 3 points, 3rd place giving 2 points and 4th place giving 1 point. Then after 3 races, the lowest amount of points 2nd place can have is 6: (3, 2, 1), (2, 1, 3), (1, 3, 2). However, that algorithm will produce 7. After the first round you’ll have (3), (2), (1); and after second round you’ll end up with everyone on 4 points: (3, 1), (2, 2), (1, 3). Which means that next round someone will have to pick up 3 points and have 7 points.
This is because, as can be seen from above example, to get the lowest possible 2nd place score after X races, you sometimes cannot get the lowest possible score after X-1 races.
Great video though!
I've always felt like having a 20-1 point system from 20 points for the winner to one point for the driver at p20 is a easy way to make the championship a lot more interesting
I’d love to see this same concept but with the manufacturers championship
Thank you for this. I tried to figure out how and when a driver wins the championship and found nothing online. You’re awesome.
Pls talk about the most difficult corners and explain why they are so hard to master
Because they are difficult?
@@sarthaksharma4816 There's has to be reason why they're difficult. It's not just difficult because it exists.
Williams: QUICKLY QUICKLY WRITE THAT DOWN!
For those wondering, the earliest a team can win the constructor championship is *also* *12* *races* , if -Mercedes- the dominant team gets 1-2 every time (44 points) and the other teams share the points as shown in the video.
Other funny stat : if a driver was to get 2nd every race and the other drivers would mess around, -Bottas- the guy that consistently finishes 2nd would secure the championship by race 15
Lewis, it's James. Last year you got to win every race. This year Valtteri gets to. Let him by.
Accurate and thorough as always. Another interesting hypothesis explored
5:35 would be a very strange points system with the random 4 point gap between 13th and 14th, and also the gap between 3rd and 4th being larger than between 2nd and 3rd ;)
I would like the idea of *points for all* . Fair enough for all drivers, even if the driver only gets one point. The winners would only unstoppable by at least 14 races (if the points given is spaced evenly), and the competition would be intense, since everyone gets points from the race.
@Chain Bear There were some proposals to bring new point system where everyone finishing the race gets points. Maybe it would be interesting to see how would F1 standings look like if Indycar point system would be applied, along with all extra points they get during the weekend and ifstandings would be different at all.
I think that it would be very interesting if the number of points per race increased as the season went on. This would allow team with poor results early in the season to make a realistic comeback.
This is done on some party games to keep everyone in the compition until the end.
Combining increasing points with your idea for addition practice for the rear of the grid would mean the teams could close the gap halfway through the season.
I liked the colourful patterns that apeared :)
I guessed about halfway but there would no way I’m clever enough to do all the maths and possibles. Great video 👍🏻
I'd love some further videos on this with examples similar to past seasons such as 2009 where Button domintated the first third of the season but nobody could catch him because they shared the wins over the rest of the season.
Kudos to Chain Bear for doing all that math!
If all drivers DNF except 1, do the drivers who retired last get points or is it an automatic 0. If so that's 11 races for a win in the unlikely event all other drivers DNF every race
The only race I know of off the top of my head where this happened is the 1996 Monaco GP. Only 3 cars finished. Frentzen, Salo, and Hakkinen were still awarded points despite not having finished the race. But that was under the old top 6 system. I don't know about today.
You can get points by having a DNF if you classified by completing at leats the 90% of the race inside the top 10.
I made a calculation like this as a kid back in 2001 and the result was that a driver could clinch the title in round 9 of 17. There were 22 drivers then which probably explains the slight difference to your calculation with the 1991 points system.
Another EXCELLENT video by Chain Bear F1!
There are 76 points available each race for the other drivers who don't finish first with the fastest lap. If the same driver wins every race, there would need to be ~33 cars sharing the remaining 76 points evenly in order for a driver to clinch the championship after 11 races. (The 33 number could be affected by what phase of the bow tie graph race 11 is).
Cheers for this & thanks for doing the maths. Fun and informative. I kinda wish Hamilton had wrapped up the title this early just to set one more record. Would have been one of the ultimate F1 achievements. Guessing aiming for that _(maybe - if he knows or cares)_ might keep Lewis motivated to stick around even longer in F1 and at Mercedes? One big variable here that has changed over the years & decades is the number of races. Imagine if F1 still only had the number of races they had in the 1980's (16) or worse the 1950's! (Under 10!) Obviously the more races there are, the longer it's going to take to win the title.
I didnt understand any of those theories. But seeing all drivers getting some points in some senarios was amazing. That is where some of them finely got some points and pole too. ;)
Chainbear, you’re the world champion of analysis videos 👍 I’ll even give you the extra bonus point for being the fastest to upload.
Max might be about to answer this question this season lol.
Just look at the 2002 season - it was cliched at Magny Cours in July lmao
1:30 - "Hi Lewis, it's James..."
I've been for long thinking that points should be awarded for more placements than just top ten. I think that would make championship battle more interesting and would probably encourage teams and drivers further down the leader board to push harder in each race 'cos now it doesn't really matter whether you are 17th or 13th.
Maybe it's because Chris Morris has come out of hiding recently that's made me think that these graphs wouldn't look out of place in The Day Today or Brass Eye! Good job as always though Chain Bear! Love your stuff.
“ but of course that drivers are accumulating points as well”... except Williams...
Vagabond Sparrow hahahahahaha
I'd also like to know the earliest lap Vetel can spin-out in a season!
1st. Last year's Monza.
i won every race on F1 2019 in 2 seasons, and my title only came at best at Singapore, at both seasons. (but this counting of course, retirements of other drivers and infighting for points too)
Me: *How can this be made a 10min video*
Chainbear: *Hold My Rich Energy*
Well done! Excellent video as always! 😁
Follow up video: what driver clinched the championship the earliest in f1 history, showing how quickly other drivers were eliminated and why.
Could you make a calculation (datas from this year) with the following system? The max point per race is equal the number of cars finishing the race, and every position got points. Examples: Every car finished = 20 point (max) for the winner, and 1 point for the last. After a terrible race only 13 car finished so the winner got 13 point and the last got 1 again. The base of this system is that every retired car make the race easier. If you racing alone you worth 1 point , but if you can manage all 20 cars on the track (overtake/overlap) then you are truly a winner :D
I can imagine scenarios where this could get ugly on strategy.
You think some team would send a secondary pilot into a wall after the main driver retired just to lower the points gained by the concurent team?
József Bálint - sending a car “into a wall” sounds unnecessarily dramatic. Easier ways to achieve that.
Thanks for not doing the maths for me! Was wondering how this season was shaping up!
And then comes the Japan GP rescheduling... I wonder how things will be affected...
In case you're unaware, due to the typhoon, the Japan GP was forced to reschedule. As of now, the qualifying will take place only three hours before the actual race, with one less day of practice. Considering the race will take place after typhoon, track condition is likely to change.
Ferrari strategists watching this video be like: WRITE THAT DOWN. WRITE THAT DOWN
WOW, how long did it take u do make this video? appreciate the work my man.
Ah another great video in the good old chainbear style! I like it a lot! 😁
CURRENT SEASON: 8:36
Interesting (and unfortunate) to see Bottas dropping off
I always thought the point gap between podium finishers were too big. But then after watching this, I realized that it's not the point system that's the problem, but rather it's when one driver dominate the wins that make it impossible for others to keep up.
What about doing some comparison of point systems from different series around the world. i.e. how would the championship leaderboard look if points were awarded using the Indycar or V8 Supercar points system (forget NASCAR, as even us americans have become clueless how they do things anymore)
Giving every driver a different point for their finishing position and reducing the gaps between the points could and most likely will motivate the drivers. Since the points system would create a closer season every driver would want every point possible. Besides, it would reward great performances of drivers in slower cars. Atm if George drives the wheels of his car and gets really lucky, he will still end up most likely with 0 points. Williams had really good reliability this year, so why would you not reward that by giving them more points for actually finishing the race (above others, whos cars broke down or who had crashes)? It would also motivate drivers and teams, who are fighting for example over p13 and p14. If a driver and a team have a motivation to fight for the better position, they will do so. The motivation atm is to be one position closer to p10, which is really not that much if you're in p14 and could result in engine saving and not letting the driver fight because the risk/reward dont match at all
The points system should be 100 points for a win, 20 for second, 10 for third., (minor points scoring for places 4-10) This tips the risk vs reward ratio to be heavily weighted in favour of "win or bin" and will make racing at the front much more exciting. Teams and drivers are too conservative under the current system as 8 points is not enough incentive to go for the win vs consolidating their points for second place.
I do think the points system should be spread throughout the field, 20-1 pts., so the gap will be closer, and effectively making teams push harder. This will give us the races we want to see.
Easier if you talk about something I call Championship Span.
S=X+nR-XM
S= Span
X= Score
n= rounds left
R= Points up for grabs per round
XM= Score of the Ch Leader
If S dips into the negative numbers you're out of contention