Don't Ignore The Warning Signs Because Slowly, Then All At Once...
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 19 พ.ย. 2024
- Slowly. Then All At Once.
► • Slowly. Then All At Once.
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Andrew Wilson's Argument Collapses In Debate And He Gets Heated w/ Moderator
►th-cam.com/video/cGT52JUl3_0/w-d-xo.html
This is AI-trioc
CAT 6e FTW
The most infuriating thing about all of this is, Destiny watching it on 2x but having to rewind every 5 seconds to process what Atrioc just said
Being familiar with both Destiny and Atrioc has really exposed how uncharitable chat can be, almost hunting for some sort of gotcha, to call the video stupid, instead of giving it a fair go. Same with some of the comments here. It feels like people are looking for anything to discredit the video to a point where they are missing what the video is about
Tiny fans are chronically online weirdos. It's expected. Us YT clip viewers, on the other hand, are chads that the live viewers wish they could be.
A great gotcha is at around 37:20 when Atrioc uses an example of a Florida county where people are desperate to sell homes and the ratio of homes for sale to the population is wild, but obviously it's not going to end well because they're severely out of balance and then Destiny goes on a rant about how this is a bad example because this area is out of balance with the national average.
It's the Reddit thing of rephrasing exactly what someone said but in a way that implies they were wrong when they said it.
Don't read TH-cam comments is my personal solution.
It's worse for the small side channels like "ClipsDGG"
That's not chat that's humans.
Yep, it is crazy…. And unfofortunate.
Marketing monday bridge under construction.
This will be a litmus test for me to see if im too much of a fanboy
Atrioc is a very good normie to talk to, but imo he cares too much about his image to make it happen 😢
@@lighting7508 He is also friends with Ludwig and Slime so I'd be surprised if they didn't already implant a bias towards Destiny in him.
@@hammurabii.3173 he did say he was pleasantly surprised by the Shapiro conversation because he thought destiny was basically an alt right grifter 💀💀
If you unironically think this would ever happen in any universe, I have a marketing monday bridge to sell you.
"Everytime we put out an update our users would complaint about things we didn't even change"
Gaming, in a nutshell.
Ironically also legislation
Everything bro. Happens even at my job to things they have previously agreed to. People will always complain. Somehow gotta treat them like idiots and find a way to make them **think** you're fixing their issues while simultaneously taking their feedback seriously and selecting specific things that really need fixing.
@@delam617 Very true.
I remember a few years ago, there was a League of Legends update that nerfed the character Vlad. Vlad had a decrease in winrate (i think 5-10 point decrease) but it had turned out that they never actually made the change. Placebo nerf caused a winrate drop lol
This is the best example of listening to respond, rather than listening to understand. I did not expect Destiny to even miss the entire point of the video.
1. You're good at pointing out alternative reasons why this stuff happens, but you didn't factor in that it's so many things that have one common explanation with vastly different counters.
2. When he compared how we're breaking a record set in the pandemic, he was right (assuming he didn't lie about the data). He said bankruptcy is beating covid-time records. Yes, covid wasn't "usual times", but that's what led to the alleged record breaking bankruptcy rates. If that was a record, and now we're passing it, that is a bit scary
Yeah that was some retarded aah phalacy. You cant compare the world to unprecdedented times, the record bad times are unprecedented for obvious reasons, therefore you cant compare anything to the worst time, therefore no matter how bad things get they are never the worst because that comparison isnt allowed to be made.
Something that could’ve happened is that some people were able to stay afloat with their emergency funds/whatever assets they had at the time but they ran out after Covid and now there is still a large amount of people filing for bankruptcy.
An example could be an engineering worker who liked to spend above their means was laid off after Covid and now they can’t afford their house or car payments now that they don’t have a stable income. Or say someone started a business during Covid that did well but after the pandemic the need for their goods/services fell
I don’t know anything about it so I’m not saying you’re wrong or anything like that but there could be factors that increased cases of bankruptcy after the pandemic still caused by Covid. So to say that we could still be in the period of wackiness even though the lockdowns and everything are over
@@Dramahayes This is interesting. So unemployment isn't low or something? The job market is really volatile STILL?
His point is more about the fact that covid wasn't an unusual crisis so you need to look at all of the other crises that have happened a long time to actually compare to see how f***** we are
Atrioc was trying to layer evidence to build up to a point, but destiny kept on pausing every ten seconds to say how singular graphs can be misleading, as if there wasn't more data 5 seconds before and after.
I feel like Destiny was not listening what Atrioc was saying. Constantly trying to disagree on some nitpick without trying to actually understand.
He kept pausing and couldn't process anything more than 1 isolated statement at a time.
Talking about the most obvious things too
This video shows very clearly: Listening and understanding are two very different things
I want to point out that Atrioc mentioned watching Destiny talk on Jan6 and it changed his opinion on Trump, he was unaware of how bad it was and spoke well of Destiny.
he also watched pokAImane
@@Lukexxxxxx and QT CinderellAI
@@slick3996 theyre alright now I think
@@Lukexxxxxx Let it go.
@@Lukexxxxxx Good thing it acted like a filter to all the garbage fans
The guy in chat saying destiny was giving atrioc too much charity is living in a different universe.
I thought destiny was going way too hard looking for things to "be careful" about. it's crazy what our biases do to our perspectives
@@andylawlzzI had this exact same experience lol he was pausing every 10 seconds
@@josuevazquez6639every 10 seconds he makes an analogy I was pulling my hair out he can be such a contrarian.
@@andylawlzzthat is my perception too, although I'm subbed to atrioc and already saw the video.
@jadonharper1493 lmao he wasn't taking a contrary position, he was being hyper critical because non-economists making popular content diagnosing the state of the economy can spread misinformation and further idiocy. Did you want him to sit there and nod for the whole video?
Damn I feel like destiny is totally misinterpreting half the things this guy is saying. I was surprised about how much he missed on this.
Right? Doesn't help that he feels the need to watch it on 1.75x speed. The pacing of the video is not even that bad, it is not an hour+ video essay, he should just watch it at normal speed.
Destiny not knowing that Intel and NVIDIA do more than just make gaming pc parts is hilarious.
Shows a lot about his knowledge about the current state of anything to with economy. Wtf was this video
Destiny's argument about economy is fundamentally flawed and frankly wrong.
Economy IS also about vibes!
If you feel like you can't afford a house, but you can actually buy it right now, DOESN'T MEAN that you ACTUALLY WILL BUY IT.
People make decisions based on vibes, EVEN ECONOMIC DECISIONS.
People don't suddenly become PERFECT RATIONAL AGENTS when money gets into the mix.
Again, if you feel like you're poor, but stats show that you're not, it doesn't change anything, because you will live AS IF you're poor.
Politics is a system with people at the end.
Economics is a system with people at the end.
I’ve thought this way about the concept of competition as well. Although competition works sometimes, it’s also the case that it’s advantageous for larger companies to “join hands” and artificially reduce innovation and increase price (which happened with the lightbulb, for instance). I guess what felt similar here is the idea that everyone is a rational agent acting in best accordance with the economy, but that is an absolutely silly notion
The consumer confidence index is literally one of the measures of how the economy is doing. Destiny's analysis was very simplistic here. Similarly, he keeps saying this could be a problem to every point atrioc makes. Which is exactly the argument atrioc is making. All of these things together is an indication that the economy isn't actually doing that well.
I think there’s so much truth in what you’re saying here. Even the stock market is literally all vibes. People act like it’s a complicated business game but it’s really only complicated due to the irrationality of the emotional state of the actors within the game lmfao.
“Wait, it’s all vibes?”
“Always has been”
At the same time though, it can be done in reverse and people can believe an economy is fine when it's not. China's economy is tanking, but the average Chinese person doesn't know that, because it's a system with total information control and speaking up gets you disappeared, and a culture that reinforces the idea that if something bad happened to someone, they had it coming so no one questions them disappearing. With such a system, of course people think things are still doing fine, that's all they know.
he has an elementary understanding of economics but seems to think he's a lot smarter than he is
Initiate nitpick:
um... how is comparing the number of corporate bankruptcies happening during the crazy shit going on in the pandemic to the current number of bankruptcies somehow not relevant? I'm so confused. If bankruptcies are higher than the crazy highs during the pandemic, that seems noteworthy. Depending on the type of comparison being made, if the current stats are 'inexplicably' higher than the historic ones, you can absolutely make useful comparisons between constitutional times and extraordinary times... tf is he talking about? That supreme court ruling actually supports what the marketing monday dude is saying. If they make a comparison to pre-pandemic bankruptcies, what is that going to say, except 'hey bankruptcies are really high right now.' Obviously they've already done that, and are now making a comparison that actually says something useful. Namely, 'Hey, bankruptcies are higher now than when the entire world was shutting down.' That is significant and relevant.
If we instituted the purge for all of 2025, tracked the stats somehow, and then abolished it in 2026, it would be useful to compare the murder rate for 2030 to 2025 if the 2030 numbers are higher. It's like _holy shit_, people are getting whacked more than back when it was legal! Something must be going on!
Pandemic-era corporate bankruptcies are the same thing. The whole world felt the squeeze to some extent, supply chain was effed, people weren't spending money, and companies were going bankrupt like crazy. It is completely reasonable to make a comparison when the present day stats are higher. It's only not relevant if the current stats are lower, because they _should_ be lower. The 'constitutional times' here would be when there was no pandemic, and if the current stats surpass those of the pandemic peaks, it should indicate that we are **not currently in** a 'constitutional times'. Thus, a comparison to the pandemic era stats is actually more relevant than a comparison to the 'constitutional times'.
That Supreme Court document was saying that we need to look to relevant past precedents during moments representative of 'the norm' in order to help inform and potentially update our current definition of 'the norm' and what should be expected during those times. The article is saying that the current stats DO NOT line up with 'the norm', and are in fact more similar to those during a global pandemic.
Why you do dis, Destiny?
i was thinking this but you found the words to explain it perfetcly, thanks
literally exactly what i was thinking
There actually weren't that many bankruptcies during the pandemic. So the comparison has the built in assumption that the pandemic number is definitely high, but there actually weren't many, so the point isn't actually insightful.
Because Destiny is a sophist bro. It also goes into his more deeper belief which is that His Preferred Politicians and Socio-Economic Strategies = Good. So therefore economy must also = good. If he admitted that the economy is really ass, it cuts deeper into the idea that maybe the people he voted for and people he supports, don't actually benefit the economy like he claims they would.
@@charlieanderson5490Ok but corporate bankruptcies are at the highest point in 2024 than they have been since 2010. 2010 was the downturn of an economic and housing crash.... Meanwhile during Trump's presidency, every year saw a drop in bankruptcies even through the pandemic. His corporate bankruptcies were the lowest since 2007, so before the economic crash.
12:00 reminds me of the story from August ( Riot Dev), where he talks about the players complainging about a Vladimir Nerf that they "released". But in Fact they only put the nerf in the patch notes and DIDNT acctually ship it to the servers. So Vladimir was unchanged, but players complained.
Return to Castle Wolfenstein had the Thompson and MP40 with the same stats to keep the SMGs balanced, but players complained the Thompson (IIRC) was stronger. It was because the gunfire sound was punchier and thus the weapon felt stronger. The devs just changed the audio and playtesters confirmed the weapons were now finally balanced.
the interesting thing about that one was that he remained unchanged but his winrate still dropped
@@robbiversepresumably the better players read the notes and just moved on without confirming
@@robbiversethats cuz everyone who were only playing him to win moved on to the next character. Moba players always do that shit. So only casual players or players that really like that character played it.
@Kris-wo4pj no, placebo effect and such is real. Modern Warfare 3 had a similar occurrence with the UMP-45 getting "nerfed" in patch notes but not actually. Only sweats played with it at the time, casual players were all on the mp7, pp9 or ACR. All guns, for those that haven't played call of duty.
Players were told it was worse, and so they played worse. We got the statistics over the week and everything.
This is near impossible to watch. The most aggressive pausing I have ever seen. You can tell how much Destiny really hates this dude. Also, Destiny's lack of economic/financial knowledge. Like some of the dude's points were a bit washed, but overall decent video.
As a game designer, I 100% agree that game design is one of the best ways to learn what it's like to be a politician (on a small scale). People live in your world, you manipulate systems, rules, and economies. You can enforce rules or you can change behaviors indirectly by incentives. Players hallucinate your intentions behind every update. People have strong opinions, and you have to figure out what they really want. Sometimes solutions aren't possible, not because 'you don't care about your players,' but because you have limited knowledge, or your framework doesn't allow certain updates. You can make all the decisions top down according to your vision, or run polls democratically, practically any system you want to try. It changed my life for the better, and it helped me grow away from populism.
True
Nah.
Local politicians / councillors = game devs.
National politicians / courts = people that make game engines.
Never thought of that, trump needs to be a game dev first is what it sounds like.
@@raquetdudethey can be the same thing sometimes. Some companies make a proprietary engine for thier game. So id say the metaphor still works quite well
@@raquetdude That's an interesting way to think of it.
So I spent an hour and a half watching Destiny try to nit pick Atrioc's video, to basically, accidentally agree with the whole thing? He repeated the "be careful" and "too many variables" line constantly, while acknowledging that basically every single point could also be true and worrying. WHICH IS THE POINT! That all these might be an issue topics are all happening at once and all have a similar pattern.
Damn destiny actually listened to turkish toms recommendation.
Yeah ngl I was surprised
Hopefully he learned not to do that again lol
A great one to watch. Atrioc is great!
@@trevors6379why?
@@UnconventionalMarketingpaid shill
OH MY SHIT ITS MARKETING MONDAY ON A WEDNESDAY LETS FUCKING GOOOOO
Atrioc has been saying there could be an economic crisis for around a year now, my interpretation of his videos hasn’t been that there will be a recession, but that he believes that it is coming and wants to warn viewers to be careful with their money and jobs incase it does come
U less I'm misremembering, the recession/crisis predictions haven't been an "It's happening soon guys" thing until very recently. He's been talking g about how shitty the economy is for young people and the fucked coping mechanisms for about a year. Unless you consider his Magnificent 7 stuff but I don't think he ever said outright that the Magnificent 7 stuff was outright alarmist. Just more like a warning that the good numbers are on fairly deceptive ground.
He never really said a recession is coming. He has been saying the economy is kinda mid for a while.
@@testacals I may be misremembering, but I think I remember him saying something to the effect of we aren’t in a recession because it’s an election year, and the US government is trying their best to keep their head above the water for a little bit longer. I may totally be mistaken lol
One of the main causes of a recession is fear of a recession
@@tuscanyiscol and one of the main causes of bank failure is thinking there will be a bank failure. It's illogical to tell people not to see shit get worse and to just keep acting like things are good. If things aren't good, the situation will create losers and it makes sense that people don't want to be the one caught unprepared.
To skip facial autism 0:35
lmao
that's the best part😂
Pisses me off even more when I think of someone who actually does look like the person and you know the rest.
Steven "Destiny" Kenneth Bonnell II if you see this, that guy looks like Tek Knight from The Boys. Faceblindstiny
@@Sethery11 I for sure thought that’s who he’d compare Big A to
K E E P Y A P P I N -Joe Biden
38:30 he wasn’t trying to use that one place to represent the entire country, he was talking about one town and how it’s specifically bad there. destiny didn’t listen to the whole sentence
destiny says exactly this
@@danporter1176 i think you left the word "opposite" out of your reply. he does day exactly the opposite of what i said. I'll put it in an example
ex: 50% of hawaiians surf. since the american average of surfers is way lower than 50, we can say that hawaii has a large amount of surfers; that is an okay statement to make. 50% of hawaiians surf, so soon all of america will also be surfing is not. The guy clearly says "if you are in lea county right now, it's twice as bad as the recession" , not "watch out cause everywhere will be like lea county in a few months." He was talking about real estate in florida, so he used a place in florida as an example
The point of the video was that we are bad at predicting recessions. The current method is too slow, so he's going over some stuff that may indicate there's a problem before it actually happens. At no point did he say that any of these things mean there will be a recession for sure or that the numbers in lea county indicate anything for the rest of the country.
Yep exactly. Atrioc is VERY CLEARLY just providing perspective to the lee country numbers by finding a way to compar them to the numbers in 2008. It frustrated me that destiny seemed to interpret this as "atrioc is saying that because lee county numbers are bad its like the whole country is bad just like 2008 soy". I feel like he should be smart enough to grasp the idea here...
Its almost exactly the same, using destinys analogy, as saying "single parent rates in this area are 5x higher than the national average was during [x time of well known single parenthood crisis]". Hes literally saying nothing more.
@@christianfoley7441 yeah and for the one child it would be devastating. Just like lee county. Just like what Atrioc is saying. What's his point with the comparison then?
What a frustrating watch. Destiny, the guy who keeps saying middle class people are just whiny babies and Everything is Normal and Fine, continually handwaves away any of the concerns pointed out in the video while pausing constantly to ramble about investment advice. The irony is palpable.
You can’t tell rich people the economy is bad. He literally just got finished talking about “fuck the data”, sometimes what people feel is imporant…now he’s saying, always remember the numbers. I get there can be nuance between those two things. But it slightly feels like he’s picking and choosing the rules based on bias.
He’s not, the bias is to assume you have the data necessary to make these claims in the first place. There is an example of two soldiers lost in the field, some how they made it back to base, and when questioned they said, “oh we just followed the map” but they didn’t have a map of that area. The map in this analogy is the law of large numbers, it’s how you make predictions in science. You need a certain amount of data to make these predictions, but for certain economic phenomena (power laws) that’s trillions of data points.
That’s Hayek argument, so keep in mind when Destiny say libertarian are dumb, that’s the argument he is going against and what every economist is trying to fix with their models, again which they won’t fix.
Data is good for science but bad for Risk or applied science. This is why they have inflation targeting. You look for the break points and then target with redundancy so you don’t destroy everything, also a libertarian idea.
@@TheWiggum123somebody referencing Hayek in a Destiny comment section, holy based
Feel like your comment misrepresent what was discussed. It would be more like:
"He literally just got done telling people sometimes the broaderdata is not capturing the right thing, and we should dig a little deeper under the guidance of popular analogue... and now hes saying, here are some specific numbers which point in the opposite direction of the broader data."
(Totally reasonable btw)
@@roymarshall_ he said libertarians where dumb, so I had to appear
the headline about interest being paid on debt between mortgages and non-mortgages is about the absolute figure Americans are paying on interest in a year being at around 575 billion dollar each. it is not only about rates for mortgages going down (which helps align the two figures) but americans taking on more and more debt on consumer spending overall as the later has risen a lot
also: etfs are not actively managed, they follow the index meaning that right now an ishares core s&p 500 etf is invested for 6.16% in Nvidia and 6.73 and 6.87% in Microsoft and Apple each. Together with Amazon and Meta that is 5 companies making up 26% of ones investment.
Which sort of points to the vibecession, people aren’t taking on debt because they don’t have income, they are taking on debt because they aren’t adjusting to the economy.
Idk what it is but it seems like people go on autopilot when spending money and refuse to cut back on certain things
It's not really about taking on more debt at all, necessarily. Actually, it's about PAYING more debt, which could be a good sign, right? You see the headline saying we're paying LESS debt than ever, then maybe it's time to say "uh oh"
Ok but if people cut back on spending wouldn't it also hurt the economy @fungdark8270
@@trevors6379 default rates are an an all time high tho
Wait, what? No. If people think it's a bad time to buy a home (and we infer that this means less people are buying homes) then it is more difficult for sellers to offload property. You're addressing a different point than what was made. Buyer's being unhappy with prices, means seller's expect great return on their property, which is true. However, his point was that if buyer's think it's a bad time to buy a home, they're not going to buy, which leaves property investors holding the bag until market sentiment changes, at which point they may end up with a negative return on their investment.
People love to point out "economy is doing fine" predictions prior to economic crashes, but no one points out all the economic crash predictions when the economy was doing fine
>users not knowing what they want
doesn't help that the quantity of users have increased by many orders of magnitude over the past 6ish years and that the user population has been diluted with people that don't know anything about anything
In my personal experience it’s not necessarily a function of “knowing” what you want. I feel like most of the average person wants similar things. Most people “want” to be able to pay their bills and still have enough left over for emergencies. People “want” to believe that their grievances are being addressed and people “want” to know that their taxes are going towards something meaningful. But, simply put the average person truly has no idea how or why they feel unable to accomplish one or any of the things I mentioned above. An individual can have one idea of what the state of the economy is and have their own set of problems with it. But, you can’t address anything on the opinions of an individual. Only way that users can effectively find problems is if the feedback is taken from a very large sample size and patterns emerge. If a large group of people start complaining about something, even if the thing has previously worked. The structures that govern us should still pay attention to people when a large enough group of individuals starts to complain. Because, even if none of the users can explain why something is happening we can generally tell when something situationally changes that affects our lives. Which means that something was always fundamentally flawed with the system in the first place. Society as a whole is very adept at finding problems over time, individual users are more often not. Damn, this comment got away from me lol.
This vid is the Avengers for me. Two fav content creators finally crossing. Get Atrioc on bridges at all costs.
Might as well add ai pokemane while you’re at it
You could deep fake him into it
It's impossible to bridge these two communities when every other comment is just yapping about the AI deepfake situation from years ago, both to insult him over it or even to defend his actions which he himself has disavowed and worked pretty damn hard to make up for.
I like both but I genuinely think a content creator is worse off if they have a bridge to Destiny exclusively because of his fanbase being rabid and aggressive because of the perpetual "debate mode" atmosphere.
Atrioc's community is a lot more wholesome and friendly, and they wouldn't take kindly to people being told to kill themselves or calling people retarded, etc.
@@sere971 That's true, but I also think a lot of Atrioc's chat is also kinda further left leaning than Destiny's. There is a lot of crossover with Hasan, so a decent portion of them are kinda predisposed to hate Destiny as well. I generally like Atrioc, but some of the comments he and his community make just scream internet socialist to me. It sucks, cuz I think they're both genuinely smart and interesting people that could have a good talk.
Atrioc is still friends with Ludwig and his friend group so very unlikely
At this point, I’m just wanting to see how far Destiny is willing to take his economic contrarianism. It’s approaching Baghdad Bob levels, but I think he can drill even further.
Drill, baby, drill!
Can you explain this comment for me. Im not that knowledgeable when it comes to economics so I don’t really get it
Yea he just swears the economy can do no wrong and like corporations and monetization has corrupted everything
Definitely one of, if not his weakest stance
@@Producadv maybe, but he's also right when he references all of his sources. You cannot predict recessions and when every statistic says we're doing fine, then yea I wouldn't really listen to consumers about how horrible it is everywhere
@@lumayne8829
Wrong
Last time i was this early, destiny was still running defence for Sneako.
I remember those days. He was so weaselly about it. I got banned from his Reddit for calling him out on it.
Tiny is pretty cool, but he could stand for being more open-minded. He is not good with criticism at all.
@@jessecraft1199 let's not do revisionism on sneako now that hes gone completely off the rails. He engaged in good faith IRL debates with destiny, and he was a young very impressionable kid. It makes sense why destiny would instantly dissavow him for being radicalised in certain ways. It was good that they engaged with each other, even if it didnt turn out well in the end.
Ahh Yesterday
@@phoenixeyyna its revisionist to pretend he was ever good faith.
@@phoenixeyy what are you on about? Destiny absolutely ran defense for Sneako. I remember where I was standing when I was listening to it. I could not believe the weaselly words that were reaching my ears. Your weasel master taught you well.
36:30 It's so annoying how Destiny completely misunderstood what was said. Even with replaying the part like 3 times, he still wrongly thought there was a contradiction. So fucking stupid. Atrioc said buyers feel it's a bad time. He then said that makes it hard for sellers, because there are few buyers. Destiny then somehow thought Atrioc said sellers should think it's a great time to sell... when nobody is willing to buy? Bro if you can't sell your house that doesn't make you happy. This whole reaction was really hard to watch with how many points were missed or misinterpreted. It's like Destiny showed up prejudiced against any point and his brain wouldn't let him consider anything, only try and undermine to the point of nonsense. Yes, there are caveats, but think a little before you speak and at least try and listen correctly. I can't with this guy
absolutely no need to 2x speed this
Destiny's brain really broke on this one. It's sad to see someone that's so convinced of a certain outcome that their brain literally stops taking in any contradictory information
The quick cameo by shoenice threw me straight back to 2010 TH-cam holy shit how is that man still alive.
Atrioc casually listing of 100 indicators of recession, yet destiny dissecting each one like he didn't just hear a hundred of them, this man's brain is so small it's unbelievable
It's like that situation where, your partner is showing signs of cheating and you or they tries to explain those signs away. If you have to explain away 100s signs, there is probably a simpler answer. Could have saved destiny a lot of trouble tbh
29:15 i think you're misunderstanding this headline and point entirely, he is agreeing that the pandemic era was cray and the numbers were everywhere, thats why its so insane that the numbers *now* AFTER the pandemic are even higher than they were during the pandemic.
I remember two years ago hearing about how a recession was inevitable (and _imminent),_ that it was either (1) continuing rise in inflation, (2) a recession, or (3) a miraculously "soft landing", and that the soft landing was basically impossible. So far? It seems like the soft landing has been achieved.
Yep, I’ve become a Federal reserve simp over the past few years
We had a technical flash recession in 23 and potential “rolling recession” in sectors
People will talk about the Sahm rule or yield curve inversion, but Claudia Sahm has come out and corrected the record and the yield curve is clearly not a perfect indicator either.
coming back to this comment in 6-12 months
@@HATBREIKID if it’s the case that you’ve bought into recession fears, what’s the primary reason?
@@HATBREIKIDno you won’t.
@@HATBREIKID Same.
Is Destiny taking a masterclass on how to watch videos from Hasan?
Fr lmao
I get as frustrated from both of them
he puts the video in x1.75 speed but keeps having to pause and go back bc it goes too fast lol
Companies pay dividends when their management thinks their days of high growth are behind them. These are generally mature companies with dominant positions in very established markets. Younger companies generally use their cash to grow. It is untrue that one type of company is a better investment than another.
What can be true is that due to your temperament, or perhaps your stage of life you prefer one of these over another. But that is a personal choice.
Great video ruined by destiny watching at 1.5 speed
D man in big A?!
in?
big fan of the coffee cow, fellow daliban, we must construct this bridge from both sides, the pillars must be strong enough to weather any storm.
oh god no please no, the dude JUST got over the goddamn deepfake drama we dont need him to get caught into destiny's orbit, not when probably most of his chat and most of the atriarchy is deep in the hasan twitch sphere of influence
Dude, no one cares, no offense @@francisxavier8374
@@francisxavier8374and even with the hasan shit, no one cares
@@francisxavier8374 i think if he takes more of a lilypichu role, then nobody normal will care. Just a chat or something.
@francisxavier8374 clearly u don't watch atrioc cuz he's been over it and him and qt have been cool again for a quite a bit
the cross over I didnt know i needed
Recessions just aren't possible to accurately predict. If they were then people would be able to avoid them. It's like trying to accurately predict what airplanes are going to crash. If you're vague enough to just keep saying "a recession is coming" then eventually you'll be right, but that's not much use by itself, you need to know when it's going to happen and what will cause it.
People will point to indicators that often predict recessions, but once those are spotted then everyone starts preemptively acting in response to those, and usually that results in the recession being inverted. Two recessions never have the exact same causes.
Most are usually caused by some type of bubble being popped. The tech and housing markets have all this investment but are worth very little or a lot of startups aren’t worth anything. Same with housing. Once these pop things are gonna be brutal
I don't think that was the point of the video. Atrioc is just presenting how there are worrying signs of a recession and how signs like these were ignored in the past. How these things play out is simply not possible to know
Yeah atrioc isnt one of those that shotgun blasts predictions trying to get something right. In fact this is the only recession prediction he has ever made really
He is just presenting an argument on why there might be a recession soon. Stop this weird misinterpretation.
What Destiny says is mostly true, but sometimes a game dev, like the Fun Pimps, or even site devs like the guy that made Friendster, has a certain vision they want to see pan out, and don't listen to their users. They actually make less money, which is why Myspace became a thing and Friendster died. It's why the 7 Days to Die subreddit is meming about how you're having fun wrong.
Saying the goal is more profit makes sense, but don't forget that humans sometimes make bad decisions. Not every move they make is actually going to bring in profits, sometimes they just shoot themselves in the foot.
The SINFO video used is from a conference held at what used to be my college, IST in Lisbon. I know it's useless info, but I just found it super cool, like 2 random worlds collided. Trippy.
As a 10 year Destiny player I can 100% tell you that it's going down. It's at its lowest recorded player count and had 2 rounds of layoffs because of poor performance this year. The changes with The Final Shape were implemented to prolong game time but irritated the player base with the time gated story and artificial difficulty because your power level doesn't matter anymore. Actually a good example of Devs not knowing what the consumer wants.
Uncharitable or autism? The world may never know
The RV thing is a bad example. Tons were sold during Covid so people could be outdoors. There was a huge boom in park visitation during that time. Now, there are tons of gently used campers for sale in the market so not many people are buying new.
Yes perhaps this is true about RVs. But the same thing happened in the tech market (one of the largest drivers of the economy): stimulus money caused overhiring and investment, and now mass layoffs for jobs that will not exist again. Maybe this actually leads back around in support of a recession. If enough markets experiences unrealistic overconsumption under covid stimulus, the whiplash from that could result in recession, right? Certainly if this was the case in every economic sector this would be the result. How many other examples need to be true before they actually become sufficient to evoke a tend themselves. Afaik a LOT of areas experienced rediculous artificial growth under covid stimulus.
The point he make is RV sales is a proxy of how willingly customer spend big money to buy a leisure item. In good economy people will spend more for their hobby.
Covid economy is good for consumer actually because government give stimulus so the economy can works. Hence why so many investment go way up too fast because ppl at that time spend time at home and had impulse buying with free money the gov give.
44:36 it is. SPY and S&P used weighted averages
This is unrelated but the editor is a real one for zooming in on the cat walking past around 14:13😂😂😂
Nah bro I'm Haitian 😂
The crossover I would've never thought I'd see in 2024, and im here for it!
Well Intel and Nvidia are having enormous impact on the entire semiconductor industry. Tech industry goes through cycles and we've just started the AI era. You can call it machine learning if "ai" is triggering.
Isn’t this the dude who got exposed for jackin it to deepfakes of Ludwig’s girl? I’m Interested in whatever he says.
You know what, good endorsement.
Hot 🥵
Worse, he got exposed for jacking it to something on a deepfake site that Ludwig's gf was also on.
It does make you question his judgement, that was a very high risk low reward wank.
sounds based
Nvidia, is doing so well as there chips are in everything, especially with the AI explosion. They are far more equitable than you seem to think they are.
You have all the dividend stock you need in the US total stock index or the S&P 500. Most of the value returns come from an increase in company stock value, not dividens.
People are drawn to dividens because they are easy to understand and they feel safer than selling and trading stock. But I don't think most people consider it efficient to live purely off dividens. As this requires you to tie up a ton of money and ignore the potentially larger gains in a more balanced long term investment portfolio.
My product owner just said that the iCal file we generate didn't work. I checked with him and he showed me how he just double clicked it and nothing happened. Turns out there's a bug in the new Outlook, so that it doesn't focus the outlook window when an iCal file is opened from the file explorer, but if he actually looked at outlook it asked him if he wanted to import it. After that he asked me if I could fix so that outlook opens when he double clicks it. Even product owners don't understand tech at all
The fuck is that title?
It's an AI generated video.
Shits like avant garde yo
(Regarded)
I know, it's actually kind of interesting, right?
Also, I suspect it has something to do with the video that he's watching the entire time.
It's not that Ai isn't futuristic and pretty amazing, it's that things that don't use neural nets are branded as AI or things that don't need to be AI are AI enabled now.
Hey, my feedback for Pikmin 4 to Nintendo was on point. The controls were needlessly garbage because they wanted to make stuff when using the full controller more similar to using a single joycon, making several important actions very clunky.
Excuse me
@@callum6224 That was my reaction to Destiny saying the thing about gamers not knowing what they want/being able to make useful suggestions. Nintendo sends surveys to random customers who purchase recently released games for feedback, and I gave them overly thorough feedback about Pikmin 4, which I only half remember now. But if you had played it, you would know what I mean about the controls.
@@sqronce Sorry, you're just a stupid gamer. Not like Destiny, he's a SMART gamer. Source: *slurp slurp slurp*
Steve minecraft from smash ultimate never getting nerfed. The entire fanbase for years complained, and he was never touched.
@@sqronce I did play it, it controls perfectly fine. I played Pikmin 3 on switch first tho
For homes it’s definitely a sellers market. There is far more demand for homes than there is supply. This is basically the what has been causing the prices to skyrocket even in the face of increasing interest rates. These 2 things are generally negatively correlated.
I think that probabilities tend to break down pretty hard when you try to apply them to individuals too. Its not as though Biden's running was some kind of universal truth that just got shattered.
FFS … This dude is using figures from normal economic cycles compared to a post COVID recovery. It ‘s like solving an algebraic equation by saying X=Who Cares. 🙄
Oh so now we are "being really careful about data that includes covid years"
I think part of the reason it’s so hard for people to tell what they like is it’s just so complex. If you have an axe to cut wood, and you have an issue with it 4/5 times you’ll be able to articulate what the issue is because it’s pretty simple. “The axe head isn’t tightly attached, it came off once”, “the axe head isn’t sharp enough”, “the axe handle is too long, I’m pretty choked up on it and I hit myself with the back end sometimes”, etc. occasionally you won’t know, maybe the head is a little too heavy for the size of the handle and it’s hard to put your finger on the issue, but you can tell there’s something wrong. With stuff like games or ui pretty much every single problem besides something visibly breaking is the type of problem you don’t know exactly what is wrong, it just feels wrong. Humans are very bad at sorting out all the different causes of stuff they experience, so it’s hard to tell what exactly is wrong, but they know something doesn’t feel great.
Also, somewhat similarly, users are kinda stupid. There was a time in league where the top picked item for Jax was divine sunderer, and triforce was the second most picked, and the game has a feature in the shop that recommends certain items and riot moved divine sunderer off that list and put triforce on it, without changing the items or jax, and it boosted his winrate by a pretty significant amount (iirc like 1%+ which league generally operates on like 47-53% as an acceptable range for a given champ). And this was already in the era where online data about winrates was widely available, people just still picked the thing the game suggested even if it was worse. So user bases, broadly speaking, are just not very good at identifying the issues and making good decisions.
Fully franked dividends baby
Destiny coping about the state of the economy for an hour and a half just because he doesn’t want to possibly lose an argument in a future debate. Remember, Destiny hasn’t been saying the economy is “alright” or that it “could be better” he has been saying that things are going incredibly well for the average American, where is the evidence for this? Because people are still buying door dash? Come on bruh
Love the vids man, keep it up, your the only one keeping me sane
I listen to this game dev, Matt Colville, who specifically said when he worked game design, the Devs would ask people how a test played, and would specifically ask for feelings if the game was better or worse, but not for specifics. They understood people didn't actually know what they liked or didn't like about a particular game, but they FELT like they knew. This becomes more problematic when you have a live service game where the company is open and talking with the playerbase, cause the players actively interact and tell the devs what they want, but the devs are aware they either can't fix the problem the way the playerbase wants, or they know that doing so would break the game somewhere else. People need to just let devs make the game, and play it or not play it.
careful, even just asking how a person feels can be bad for direction. It could've been that on one of the play test dates the hotel the guests stayed at served bad food. Or perhaps there was an ongoing global event that downed the mood of people involved. It's never really that easy. "Knowing" anything is very very hard. That's why for millenia the human race was driven by theology until they properly distilled our rigorous process of science
@@Tom-jy3in But they're not asking how a person felt the day they played a game. They're asking how the game itself felt in the moment: good or bad, better or worse, etc. Also you really tryna say huge chunks of the world aren't still currently advocating for laws based on religious belief structures??
Destiny is not great at econ, Atrioc has more base knowledge and knows more fundamental rules. There is holes to be prodded but Atrioc is not wrong in raising concerns.
We are truly F'd if reading economic headlines for 1 hour and not going into detail on anything counts as "knowledge". I don't doubt that Atrioc knows more about econ, but it certainly was not displayed in this video. It was constant reading headline -> extrapolate into thing that article never mentions.
@@djbcubed i would agree if that was what was happening.
@@djbcubedDo you think that is because all he does is read headlines or do you think he was trying to make a short and entertaining video on a very complex topic?
@@tobene I think he was trying to make a point on a complex topic, with mostly headlines, a couple of no context graphs, and not going into detail on a single article. Anyone can point at a couple numbers and say, "wow this number was better 2 years ago, guess a recession is incoming", but that does not make it sound economic theory. Oh well guess it gets clicks because people like getting their jimmies rustled by bad news.
@@djbcubed Dude, Atrioc is clearly a dude who reads a ton about economy. You are just coping because you have no counter to his position.
Lee County, FL is Fort Myers---a tourist coastal city. There's going to be a lot of summer houses and summer houses for sale. That's an awful example to take
Some companies just can't do anything with the money or grow anymore, that's why they pay out dividends. At that point, investors expect dividends instead of just going back into the company's pockets. Like, wtf is Coca Cola or Pepsi gonna do with the extra capital?
@Destiny
Dividends were popular because stock buy-backs were illegal until recently (~20yrs)
Dividends can be great because some do really good in during recessions.
And is a way smoother steady returns. Apple, coke are examples
the crossover i never thought would happen
It's not a zero sum game. If it takes 8 people to do the same job as 1 machine, but it only takes 2 engineers to maintain the machine, that's a net loss of employment.
And perhaps you hire 2 more people to build more machines and hire 4 more engineers to man a second and third machine
@@aidanhennessey5586and perhaps these are different groups of people where one group will not be able to transition into an engineering role and will be unemployed
@@aidanhennessey5586 You're missing the beginning part where each machine fulfills the job of 8 people. Building the machine is a temp job at best, and if you only need 1/4 of the previous staff once the job is fulfilled, you're still at a net loss of job availability.
@@aidanhennessey5586you can't produce infinitely and expect all supply to get bought.
Then, once this people lose their stable job there's less spenders willing to buy their own washing machines resulting in a spiral feedback loop
why is destiny hedging so much
I hope this inspires people to learn more about economics :)
Major issue is too many people think Govt debt and personal debt is the same. Who's coming to repo or collect on the US?
tesla nike at&t could be consumers tightening their belt cuz teslas airforce ones and cable is kinda a luxury. with just different sectors being hit and being a rolling recession. layoff rate is lower then back in 2001.
"Of course, you can predict anything at any point in time, but doing it with a level of certainty where you can bet money on it is very difficult. Slash impossible."
What a great moment to be interrupted by a FanDuel ad.
I hope he watches the video of atrioc responding to a reddit response of this video its pretty illustrative
Using software engineering jobs as a median to measure the overall job market is asinine. Software Engineering job availability is more or less tied directly to interest rates and nothing else.
He had other engineering jobs on screen.
The software industry is very prominent where he lives and the initial biggest lay off headlines were in that sector.
He's also just making an example. There's been layoffs in other sectors more recently already. Every other day I see a social media post with someone referencing some layoff that's happening in their life. The data probably isn't available or as stark as engineering jobs.
These other jobs just stopped hiring. While software engineers were overhired well before. If you look at the hiring data or been applying, you can see that it's been horrendous for a while, since the software jobs started doing layoffs.
That "would you shut up please" was gold!
I imagine, by his logic, that people in 1960 should have assumed that because the baby boom ended, that the nation was in demographic collapse
well isn't it?
It is, though.
I mean........... USA has been in a demographic collapse since forever
Who's logic?
Watching destiny really annoys me
the problem with destinys take on TA is that there are some people that create a trading strategy with TA and then they backtest that strategy rigorously, so they see all the times it fails and all the times is works.
There's massive increase of volume on information and the truth just get drowned out nowadays.
9:50 love how destiny basiclly summarises what happened with cod zombies over the years
Not me watching 2x speed Destiny watching 4x speed Atrioc.
Every take destiny has on the economy hurts my brain
Destiny just doesn’t want to acknowledge how screwed Gen Z is
Literally every generation above another generation wants to belittle their struggle to retain the sense that they struggled the most. Gen X did it to millennials too, so it seems kinda ridiculous that millennials would repeat the cycle, but I guess the cycle must repeat itself
Well the planet is dying and eventually we’ll get monthly blizzards in texas while Africa runs out of water
He has every incentive to acknowledge issues in our generation. Silly goose😂
@@DavidJones-ot8qu it's not about belittling struggles, I think it's just about the statistics not lining up with people's "experiences"
@@lumayne8829 But the stats we’re talking about don’t really contradict the complaints, and plenty of other stats do seem to back the complaints
Nobody take financial advice from Destiny PLEASE!
I'm shocked that chat didnt point out the random girl walking in the background at 13:00
im shaking from excitement my two worlds