E84: Tesla Executives Have 4 Big Decisions To Make
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 12 มิ.ย. 2024
- Cyber Bulls E84
FSD Business Model
Q1 PD and Earnings
Did Elon make a mistake with compact?
Giga India
Shareholder Update?
The Bulls:
Herbert Ong @herbertong
Alexandra @TeslaBoomerMama
Jeff @thejefflutz
Xander @R6Alex
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Herbert
Good video like it. Tell me what you think about my comments
This is by far the best lineup (the 4 of you) in this show. "Mice nuts", lol. And Jeff, I love listening to him too. Seriously, we are so lucky to have guys like him that know how to describe the complexities in such an understandable form. James Douma is like this, too, in his niche of expertise. Love it! I love Alexandra too. And Herbert, you hold it all together and are so aligned with my thinking you make me feel like Im the one talking. Awesome job, guys.
Congrats to Alexandra. Looking better than ever. Great to have you back!
Thank you Nick and Trish, appreciate that.
I appreciate Alexandra's comments. Tesla haters tend to cherry pick and talk over intelligent replies.
She doesn't understand how much corporate espionage Tesla is subject to.
Great to have all the Cyber Bulls back together. Missed Alexandra :) Excellent discussion as always folks. Keep up the great content.
Urban FSD robo-taxi living: My Florida home is made of cinder block construction in a retirement community where, between the octogenarians and "ants in the pants" contractors driving pickups, the congested traffic means taking your life in your hands just to visit the town square.
I have a cybertruck on order. Already covering less than 10k miles/year with my current PHEV. {no golf cart, but haven't been to a fossil fuel filling station in months, sometimes years}. Probably won't be driving the bulletproof cybertruck much either. My plan is to keep it in the garage available as the safest hurricane shelter around. If there comes a hurricane warning, I can just have a seat and strap in. Glad of the exoskeleton added integral strength.
That was is fantastic news and Herbert & T Bulls that was a fantastic show! Made my night! Thank you all for what you provide to us viewers, appreciate it more than you know 😊👍
I agree with Jeff and Alexander that Monday morning Quarter Backings… is the height of arrogance! People that couldn’t probably run a lemonade stand. Give me a break!
The compact car is a must.
Can we get batteries ramped up by that time?
Is the Semi ramp going to happen?
What I don’t need to hear about…is the Roadster. Really is too much.
And if what I am hearing is true, that 10,000 monster packs are being sold, (?), well, then we should be fine…getting there.
I think giving FSD away is a brilliant idea. Consider that a certain threshold is reached, once a certain percentage of cars on the road are autonomous the whole system becomes optimized, both in terms of efficiency and safety. Inherently safer roads are more than user-friendly; a safer road is also more cost-effective. The safest car on the road is the Model Y, already. It only gets more attractive.
Great content, thanks Herbert
Thank you for getting together
I purchased 10k more today at 162
A particularly good conversation today, guys. (And lady!)
i have FSD12.3. used it last night coming back to Dover from philly airport. overall it is better than 11. However, still not perfect. it kicked out three times. no problem but still not ready for robo taxi
I agree Alexandra. It shouldn’t free. People put a greater value on the things they had to work for.
Jeff spitting fire at 22:27
Great episode.... Alexandra looks terrific.... Congratulations on your health regime👍👍
Thank you Thomas, straight to my heart
16:53 it’s important to remember what a monopoly is. Legally speaking it’s anti competitive practices. Right now it’s wide open to competition. It’s just that the competitors can’t do what Tesla does, because they placed their bets on technology that was never going to scale.
Jeff has very insightful thoughts and comments. Thank you!
You are an amazing team! I hope i can meet you in person one day
What about a monopoly on the service vs the initial implementation
7:29 did Jeff say mice nuts? 🐁 🥜
😂
What is that?
@@perjohanohlssonTiny testies
Two things have to be in place for wide FSD adoption: 1) It must drive as good or better than a human 2) It must be affordable (which it is currently not for many of us). Tesla is getting close to #1 pretty fast now. If Tesla continues the current pricing scheme, I don't believe the take rate will increase substantially even with FSD being very good. Robotaxi is another product all together (where perfect FSD is a subset of that product). Just my opinion.
NHTSA criteria. They promised to publish Autonomy regs before the end of ‘23. When the criteria are codified, and FSD meets criteria….🚀🧨
You guys are amazing! Your knowledge and conversations are uplifting.
In general, I agree that the robotaxi future is a better looking future. Less time wasted driving, looking for parking. Fewer accidents, deaths and maimings. Improved productivity. Improved use of resources.
But it's interesting to me that everyone regards not having to speak to a driver as a big plus. We live in a society where more and more, interacting with strangers is thought of as negative, even frightening. God forbid a stranger tries to talk to you. Herbert asked for negatives to the Robotaxi world. This will be one more step in the isolation of people. No, you won't have to have a conversation with a cab driver.
I've learned a lot about people--particularly immigrants--in my cab and Uber rides. They were good conversations with people I wouldn't have met if I hadn't taken a ride with them.
Jeff 💯 on Tesla and India! India does not want details of their deal with Tesla to get out for significant internal and external reasons. It’s very unlikely it will get out ahead of execution. This will accelerate India’s economic growth.
Alexandra glad U back to teach the group which is out of control
Alexandra Merz, "OEM's are revolutionizing cup holder sizes." Brutal and accurate.
glad you enjoyed that
@@TESLABoomerMama And Mercedes takes 6 years to upgrade (or these days, downgrade) that cup holder
Robotaxi will compete with ride sharing in urban areas. Currently, at best, it would only be a few % of the vehicles out there. Pumping robotaxi is pumping TSLA. FSD is not L5 and L5 is not guaranteed. FSD is not essential to folks who can't afford it and can still drive so to compel consumers it needs to have its cost offset by significant reductions in insurance costs.
Thank you for bringing up the mice nuts comment I wasn’t really sure what that was either
Like pine nuts - without the needles 😂
Remember FSD is a Software Development in order to start licensing FSD the OEM that will buy it need to have the hardware. I think there are 2 income opportunities sale the software and the Hardware. $$$
Warren Redlich has been saying for years that Florida and other states already approved or allows FSD.
In Florida the ‘S’ in FSD stands for Stupid.
Thank you for your great incites!
Elon didn't make a mistake delaying the Tesla Compact. Technology had to be developed for the car and market conditions were not favorable. In addition the Covid-19 Pandemic made it extremely difficult to develop/release a new model.
you are wrong
Right or wrong. It will seem to have been the right thing two or three years from now, when we have the gen-3 car on the street.
With FSD, steer by wire, break by wire, and a cheap and robust Litium-Iron-Manganese battery, with fast charging and a good range.
Maravilha de live muito esclarecedora conhecimento e vida nos liberta
With hardware you start with a simple product and gradually add stuff to make the premium product.
However with software you want to make the full blown most powerful version first and just turn off features to make the discounted versions. What's remarkable is that tesla treats mechanical engineering like software, where redesign to get rid of parts is like refactoring to get rid of unnecessary code. But it seems the lower-cost version are still full featured unlike in software.
28:00: jeff nails it they have to improve process a lot to get more car built using less material. IE just the cost/weight of batteries alone would make it impossible to have developed a "shiny" compact 3 years ago.
Shared production of DBW components in supply chain.
Welcom back
Agree with Jeff. Tesla have no competion really.
TBM hilarious. And Herbert's reaction priceless
Yeahhhh…Alexandra. Well said.
glad you liked it
I think it is too early to start cutting the price of FSD license even before negotiations start. Think of the cost Tesla spent to achieve what no others can achieve. Best FSD team in the world doesn’t come cheap. You can always go down in price latter. Almost impossible to start low ball, then go back up in price.
Jeff 100%
Herbert - you keep saying there is no regulations concerning self driving cars in a large number of states. That’s correct because there have never been self driving cars in the past. But as soon as there are sdc in these states it will only take law makers a short time to introduce state laws regulating them. They WILL pass laws that Tesla will have to contend with. Hopefully this will not slow down self driving car innovation too much.
If the insurance company accepts that FSD is driving unsupervised, no law need to be changed.
FSD will, in principle, be issued a drivers license when it's good enough for that. But formally, it might be that NHTSA proclaims it as good enough. They will simply proclaim it a valuable safety feature of the car. And if they later on notice something wrong, they will simply do one of their recalls to get it updated..
No need to complicate this, is it?
Just to add to Jeff's comment 23:20, GM signed up with Nikola like in a heartbeat, so I think that alot of OEMs are thinking hard about signing up on a deal with Tesla and will move quickly as they know they are in trouble.
The daily stock movement reflected the inverse movement of the dollar, which was impacted by oil prices. The whole market moved in similar fashion. It was a short term move, and sure as heck was not Ark, as she was buying early in the week. Pull up a chart of the dollar index, it's the mirror opposite of most charts, including Tesla.
The loss of the IRA incentives for model three will lower demand due to the model Y price comparison. So the 4160 issues keeping the 2170 away from the model 3 is an issue.
If Tesla charges the OMFs for licensing FSD, they will have to be sharper in how they handle their end of the deal.That is a good thing.
A robotaxi future will be life changing for people with disabilities and mobility issues, I hope the design accommodates wheel chair users.
Good point
Perhaps not every RoboTaxi. But you should be able to order one which has the feature you need.
For example, if you need to transport a couple of boxes, a bike, or something like that. Or a large group of people.
A wheelchair shouldn't be any problem. But why surprise the Taxi with that. Just specify these things in the app when you order it.
What about Aptera licensing FSD (Supervised) 12.3.3 or later. Also using Tesla’s HW3 or HDW4 to run FSD.
One advantage is Aptera is small at the moment. They would be good for using the Teslabot os similar robotics in manufacturing the Aptera vehicles.
Good morning
The question I would ask on next earnings call- has Tesla started writing the code base (front-end software) to operate the RoboTaxi platform. Depending on the answer, this would baseline the time-to-market for RoboTaxi.
Excellent discussion, thank you for all these windows. You are constructive in your analyses which is exceptional re Tesla TH-cam programs. On the Terrorist act perpetrated against Tesla Germany, where are the police? The justice? What are they doing to prosecute the responsibles, the entity piloting this action and make life safe for the workers and neighbors ? It is disturbing that the German Police have not arrested anybody yet.
In hindsight, it is always interesting. Tesla lacks US capacity for batteries and manufacturing for 25k in the US. Then, the IRA was not known to require North American material. I still think profitability for a new 25k car, especially if new factories are needed will be an issue for several years after deploying and then there will be competition.
I agree with Alaxandra, freebies should end because of the hostility towards Tesla and Elon will eventually bite them both. Also, it lowers the value of what you are giving away. Keeping the value is going to be important to Tesla’s future.
Saving humanity will take a lot more than Cars. Teslas Energy business will be closer to that than cars, but even Energy is a very small part of a successful future.
I'm going with Rivian and they'll bake it into their R2 (two'ish years out). RJ is a smart guy with an eye to the future. Without the legacy baggage this is Rivian's chance to truly differentiate away from the herd.
We use Uber to go up to the city(80 miles) for dinner and live performances because we want to be free to drink at dinner and/or the show. So the only option we have is getting a hotel and that's a pain. The cost of either option is a wash. Robotaxis will be a God send to because the price will be much more affordable!
The model 2 must have 48 volt and steer by wire and unbox before production.
At the same time the announce robotaxi full release they should add an over the air update that adds Grok with speech recognition so you can just tell the car to take you to wherever you tell it. The technology is already there but will still blow people away.
Congratulations on the weight loss!
Thanks, doing great, much more to come (or better: to go)
I think the group of new Tesla buyers took a pause in Q1 because they saw the universal hit that depreciation has caused. A bump in the road. Exasperated by the release of the new Model 3. Also temporary.
A plus for the licensing of Tesla's FSD to other auto manufacturers is it would help put more pressure (not just Tesla asking for approval) on regulators to approve FSD. The more manufacturers with Tesla's FSD putting pressure on regulators the quicker it will get approved.
QUESTION: does Tesla report what number from their inventory that is actually sold and just waiting to be delivered. I suspect that the inventory number include sold/pre-sold. Maybe the quarterly numbers are not as bad as we think from a demand perspective. I have a hard time buying that the demand is much of an issue. I suspect that Tesla build on demand mostly.
“delivered” means “paid” to Tesla. For FordGM, “delivered” means nothing.
One problem with a Robo taxi world is the empty rides to get to the next costumer. This adds a lot of congestion that doesn’t happen when people drive themselves.
But if you take 80% of cats off the road …
Tesla has always had a plan to build a Model 2/RoboTaxi with a steering wheel/pedals that recess into the dash/floor when not in use. Hence the yoke steering wheel, no stalks, drive by wire, etc. It is certainly possible that with the success of FSD 12+, an interim version of the Model 2, with a regular, non-stowable, steering wheel/pedals will be dropped.
Tesla has continued to keep its competitive advantage through their products, engineering and manufacturing processes. This “moat”to their advantage has become more vast each passing year. To allow other manufacturers use of Teslas products adds a bridge to claim a share of Tesla’s hard work. As a shareholder I would rather see my investment safeguarded than diluted. If the OEM’s want use Tesla’s FSD make them buy a set amount of Tesla stock, a BIG amount! Time to ante up.
I’m not sure why Tesla needs to license fsd when it can produce itself 5 million cars itself and run its own RT network. Why license to cars that will compete with your network? James Douma says each RT gross profit yearly is 100k.
Elon can be dumbest in some ways, giving away things to competition is illegal he will get sued😮
I agree, but I think with the anti Tesla sentiment in government might, a monopoly would give them ammo for an antitrust attack, so licensing might circumvent this.
It's a bribe to avoid monopoly accusations!
To counter other monopolies. BlacKRock could buy up all the Teslas and control transport as they have bought up the housing market.
Prices will go down as it grows, right now the market will pay.
Despite all the financial struggles i and my family faced, everything is finally falling into place! $47,000 weekly profit and riches I'll always praise the Lord!!!
^^^
Thanks for the advice! I'm new to financial planning and wasn't sure where to start. Any tips on finding a reliable financial adviser or resource to guide beginners?
HOW
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I agree. Based on personal experience working with an investment advisor, I currently have $1m in a well diversified portfolio, that has experienced exponential growth. It is not about having money to invest in stocks,but also you need to be knowledgeable, persistent, and have strong hands to back it up.
Wow I'm just shocked you mentioned Sonia silvia,, thought I'm the only one
trading with
her
Funny stuff...I wouldn't worry about getting the lowest price on the stock...Great idea Because it probably gets a lot cheaper in next 12 months. So your in great shape.
I hope the Aptera flies, and is able to get that FSD license.
The CybrTrk and the $25k next generation could have been in development more or less in parallel, therefore all of the new technology in the CybrTrk would also be incorporated in the next generation EV. The CybrTrk deliveries began in late 2023. If Elon didn’t put the $25k vehicle on hold in 2021, this vehicle could’ve been announced in late 2023 or early 2024 with deliveries starting before mid 2024 because Tesla would’ve needed more time to get parts suppliers to ramp production of the 48V components to production the high numbers of this EV required to fulfill the huge demand.
Elon said that they would run off the line at the same time.
It will save 40k lives per year just in the USA. The faster a deal happens with every OEM, the better for humanity. This is Tesla Goal.
Then Elon will be sued, as a company duty is to benefit shareholders 😮😮😮
I agree with you, Alexandra, enough of the freebies. I am a Tesla stock investor and I do not think it should be free.
Has anyone been able to register shares from multiple brokerage accounts with Tesla for the purpose of voting?
Even at $50 per month times 5-10-15 million cars it gets crazy.
Daimler might be a suitable licence partner for their next generation of Sprinter vans and Actros trucks, which only have a future with autonomous technology onboard!
17:48 OEM should get hardware at cost. They agree to share revenue 50/50 or 60/40 with Tesla. Tesla owns the data. OEM’s are locked into the agreement for ten years or pay a hefty fee to break it off early.
I would think the OEMs will want to brand FSD under their name. Just like what happened with NACS. They may want it to be reviewed by a third party or TESLA to maintain liability.
Cogs should be going down and battery prices could be huge Ace in the hole.
As I already mentioned … I am starting to think it is becoming very tempting to set the stage purposely and see what FSD does .. throw a cardboard box out in front, have a person walk in the middle of the street and then jump out in front of you coming up, have a dog race across the road, have a truck drop a ladder off the back … someone should purposely create some edge cases!! What happens you start purposefully covering some of the cameras to simulate mud, purposefully covering the interior camera or purposefully do some weird hand body motions or abruptly open a car door … on and on … throw a bucket (like a splash) of water across the drivers’ windshield. Why not setup a competition to who comes up with the best crazy situation!! Challenge FSD on purpose!!! Why not put up a sign saying accident up ahead, take another route and see what FSD does .. the more ridiculous the better .. it’s time to have fun 😮😅 How will it react to sounds and gestures. Fire trucks … Will it pull over and let it pass. What if a car purposefully stops in front and puts hazard blinking lights on …. 🎉🎉🎉 It’s time to create the edge cases instead of waiting for them to happen.
Saw something like this last week. Can't remember what youtube channel...but they were putting stuff in the road and seeing how FSD responds to it.
FSD licensing won’t work without over the air updates. Only a few automakers have that.
I would guess that FSD might include OTA.
My opinion is Elon could have built the building only after the compact car is locked set on design. Then wait for price of materials to come down especially the batteries due to cost of Lithium going down + the other materials
Hey
I think they tried to build it in China. They had a design studio in China to develop it and tried to build another factory in Shanghai to make it but China first delayed it then squashed it. And they had to redo the original plan.
The OEM’ have hard time making profit from manufacturing cars if the start licensing FSD and hardware they will make money because the hardware and expensive work will be done by Tesla. The will become an assembly line because the hardware + software are the heart of en electric car. The mechanical part is 98% the same from one OEM to an other one.
Looking fabulous @teslaboomermama!
Ohhhh thank you Edward. Still way to go, but feeling already much better.
From a consumer point of view, I don’t think anyone thinks they need FSD, it will take a major awakening of the public before this takes off. I want it to work as much as the next tesla investor, but right now nobody I know that isn’t a “fan boy” even knows what FSD will be capable of. So, I don’t see it taking off for several years, Jmo
Im thinking of selling before earnings - call and buying in again a few days after. Convince my why I shouldn't. 😂
Good luck, gambler!
Can the current stockholders sue the lawyers for the negative impact they cause the stock price for their suit?
When Jeff and Alexandra make quick sexual references it clarifies their economic positions on Tesla. I appreciate the clarity!
TSLA did make a mistake in not having the compact car out in 2024 vs. likely early 2026. Would have been no need to cut prices on Model 3/Y. This killed margins etc. Also they would have been a growth trajectory still and had more data for FSD. Just admit the mistake.
Maybe, but then, what Jeff said would make a great recovery.
@@larsnystrom6698 If today’s late news on Robotaxi reveal is successful, all this Model 2 talk is a mute point. Tesla will be heading to trillions.
My revivifier says, “I made a mistake not buying $TSLA at twelve bucks!”
Ford and Tesla are both in California easier integration with FSD electric drive by wire. May be why Ford is delaying more production.
In the Napa Valley, my revivifier likes to drive by wine. 🍾
Agree, Tesla totally needs to generate returns to ITS shareholders by licensing FSD to other OEMs. Good returns, not just minimal. This is the secret sauce, it has a LOT of VALUE. Capitalize on it.
This is what you do well Herbert. If you start bringing in click bait types like Meet Kevin, what you've grown is ruined.
FSD would not be fully possible with out the compute and AI
Reality
auto sales are UP in all major markets
Tesla is losing market share and this will continue for the next 2 years ...
Energy storage deployments have been flat for last 5 Q
FSD licensing? LOL I will believe when I see it
What’s today’s topic?
If they get their safety technology for free it’s fine but why Give away free liability?
Do not forget the stike in Germany and the shipments held in the Suez Cannel.