Steve, I remember you talking about the market turning over a year ago. You said basically the same thing about less offers coming in and the first signs of a turn showing. To be clear, I felt strongly that you were right at that point, but I’ve been wrong about the market turning for about 4 years now, and I’m not alone. Point being, anything could happen and the spring market could drive this market even further regardless of the turmoil in the world. The market seems to March on due to average people like myself not really trusting any other assets at this time. People are desperately trying to figure out what to do with their cash, and they’ll keep pushing the market up, in my uneducated opinion.
Just remember that one of the downsides of housing is that when it turns bad, it becomes illiquid. I don't think a crash is imminent or anything but just something to be aware of.
It'll go up for longer. Some Canadian markets are undervalued. My guess is that prices will be higher 1 year from now and 10 years from now. In between that time, not certain, but a crash is probably something you won't see.. At least my definition of a crash.
I have said this before, but I really appreciate Rich talking about the effect inflation and higher commodity prices has on those who live in poverty. It is unusual to see people who have an abundance of resources spotlight those in abject poverty. I would love for Rich to share maybe why he does "think" about the poor.
He's talked about the truth in economic numbers and charts, a big part of that is wealth transfer, a lot of people get rich at the expense of others. Economists don't just see it on the street they also understand a ten thousand foot view.
Hi Valerie, The reason I always mention the poor were working class, just because of my upbringing. My parents were penniless immigrants to Canada and I watched them struggle mightily to make ends me for most of my youth. It’s something that’s always stuck with me.
@@diasx12thank you for sharing your journey and the reason you have a heart for those who are living in abject poverty or the poor working class. My husband and I serve the homeless in our community. We also volunteerd for 10 years traveling to El Salvador and then moved and lived there for 2 years. I have deep respect for the poor, who are the hardest working and most happy people I know, they have taught me so many life lessons. I know that your parents must be very proud of you, don't ever change, no matter how wealthy you become. Those who are marginalized need a voice. 💖🙏
So 0.25bps is about $12 per 100,000 loan. What is the Canadian govt loan amount? Massive. So at what point does increase govt debt service costs require an increase in taxes?
Love what you are doing. We need more voices like you. Now during a conversation with friends and family if i need to explain the economic landscape that we have ended up in i just show one of your videos! Also, get that mic on a stand eh 😊👍
Would it be possible to discuss real rates and its impact on house prices. For example even though nominal rates are rising inflation is rising faster. It seems home owners would have less money to spend but investors would want to shift more money into real estate. Any discussion on this topic would be welcome thanks.
People have become so used to of low interest rate borrowing, BoC needs to be very cautious about raising rates. Not sure why there is no Heavy discussion on things which are equal causes of Inflation. For Eg. 1. Housing- Provinces/City should hire Developers to build 2 bdrm Condo's and provide them to Public at No Profit/No loss policy. In Greater Vancouver area, if we can get 2 bdrm condo at 450-500K, it would solve so many people's problem. 2. Food- 100% of the food should be grown within the country. 3. Energy- Canada has massive resources, not sure why we still import. If we focus on building better infrastructure, things would be better for today and tomorrow
#2. Do you seriously believe we can grow tropical fruit like pineapple, bananas, lemons, coconuts, etc in Canada? Other hot-climate agriculture like coffee beans, olives, pistachios? LOL.
1.) Healthcare being *FREE* and higher education being heavily subsidized by the decades of government fiscal deficit spending that has contributed towards inflated housing values yet you think more government spending is the solution?!
Not everyone has the right to live in one of the nicest cities in the world. Government is inefficient and incompetent. You seriously think they can build ha 2bdrm for $450-500k? Hahaha.. maybe double that. It cost them (us actually) $650k to build a small outdoor bathroom. Giving the government more of your money is the last thing you should want to do. Our healthcare system is a disgrace.. wonder the actual costs for each citizen annually?
TRREB February stats show continued price increases and lower inventory. This doesn't seem to reflect a turning in the market at least in Toronto. What's the Vancouver board reporting?
@@philshyu5248 Is that because the govt won't have access to cheap money to cover deficit spending and will have to actually sell resources to make ends meet .... and that's a bad thing ?
@@luckyPiston It's hard to call anything anymore. In normal times, interest rates need to be above the inflation rate by some margin in order to contain inflation. The government's hokey CPI is at 5% or whatever, so interest rates should be around 6% right now based upon history. But we also know that the BoC is not independent from the Government anymore so has to act politically and the amount of debt that exists is unprecedented. So, as for what's actually going to happen is anybody 's guess. 🤷♂️
@@luckyPiston But as for the markets, I don't expect any serious problems until the interest rates get above 1% is all I was saying. Above 1%, we may start to see cracks develop in stock markets, bond markets, the GDP, unemployment, who knows?
@@philshyu5248 Govt says to BOC make money cheap to stimulate the economy. Govt says to people oh and by the way we are shutting down energy and resources so spend your cheap money somewhere else. 2 years later we have housing bubble bigger than the moon , low bank rate is actually paying u to borrow money if its going into real estate and people are saying how do we slow a runaway train ???? opposite of the way u took the brakes off but no one wants talk about that !!!!!
The Twinkie Hour is the best Canadian financial commentary available on the internet
Nice new name
This show is amazing! Thank you for providing such amazing content. Please explain hawkish and doveish.
Hawkish would be potential raising of rates dovish is inverse
Inflation is running 8^.
The BoC is doing a song and dance about a 0.25% rate hike.
Nothing is being lifted other than our wallets.
Great watch, really appreciate the learning aspect and how it's such an easy watch. I would highly recommend.
I love Rich asking for numbers. It seems like such a simple thing, but it really drives the conversation to reality and away from interpretation.
I love these. Informative and funny. Its awesome.
I love this show, very well covered. Keep up the great work, I think you guys need more exposure via Twitter, Facebook, whatever...
🙏🏻
Poloz would slam beers made me die laughing 😂
I wanna get loonie this summer with you guys live in Vancouver.
Steve, I remember you talking about the market turning over a year ago. You said basically the same thing about less offers coming in and the first signs of a turn showing. To be clear, I felt strongly that you were right at that point, but I’ve been wrong about the market turning for about 4 years now, and I’m not alone. Point being, anything could happen and the spring market could drive this market even further regardless of the turmoil in the world. The market seems to March on due to average people like myself not really trusting any other assets at this time. People are desperately trying to figure out what to do with their cash, and they’ll keep pushing the market up, in my uneducated opinion.
Just remember that one of the downsides of housing is that when it turns bad, it becomes illiquid. I don't think a crash is imminent or anything but just something to be aware of.
It'll go up for longer. Some Canadian markets are undervalued. My guess is that prices will be higher 1 year from now and 10 years from now. In between that time, not certain, but a crash is probably something you won't see.. At least my definition of a crash.
Yall are bros! Not boring! I wanna see some beer shotgun bets!
I have said this before, but I really appreciate Rich talking about the effect inflation and higher commodity prices has on those who live in poverty. It is unusual to see people who have an abundance of resources spotlight those in abject poverty. I would love for Rich to share maybe why he does "think" about the poor.
He's talked about the truth in economic numbers and charts, a big part of that is wealth transfer, a lot of people get rich at the expense of others.
Economists don't just see it on the street they also understand a ten thousand foot view.
Hi Valerie, The reason I always mention the poor were working class, just because of my upbringing. My parents were penniless immigrants to Canada and I watched them struggle mightily to make ends me for most of my youth. It’s something that’s always stuck with me.
@@diasx12thank you for sharing your journey and the reason you have a heart for those who are living in abject poverty or the poor working class. My husband and I serve the homeless in our community. We also volunteerd for 10 years traveling to El Salvador and then moved and lived there for 2 years. I have deep respect for the poor, who are the hardest working and most happy people I know, they have taught me so many life lessons.
I know that your parents must be very proud of you, don't ever change, no matter how wealthy you become. Those who are marginalized need a voice. 💖🙏
Tiff says there is direct link between low interest rates and home appreciation?
Do you know what that is ?
Keith Dichter...the sexiest man in Canadian finance.
So 0.25bps is about $12 per 100,000 loan. What is the Canadian govt loan amount? Massive. So at what point does increase govt debt service costs require an increase in taxes?
If they quit buying tests / jabs, and get a refund for what we bought... that will help with some debt.
Also, look at cutting back on the gestapo.
Love the new intro.
That 50 basis point lift IIRC puts us back 0.25 short of where we were pre pandemic which was 1.00%
Solid pod
Lovin the intro!
Love what you are doing. We need more voices like you. Now during a conversation with friends and family if i need to explain the economic landscape that we have ended up in i just show one of your videos! Also, get that mic on a stand eh 😊👍
Ha never trust the guy with the soda water!
Great show!!! Why are you guys so hard on my boy Tiff?
Lol
Would it be possible to discuss real rates and its impact on house prices. For example even though nominal rates are rising inflation is rising faster. It seems home owners would have less money to spend but investors would want to shift more money into real estate. Any discussion on this topic would be welcome thanks.
First off what do you consider a real rate ?
People have become so used to of low interest rate borrowing, BoC needs to be very cautious about raising rates.
Not sure why there is no Heavy discussion on things which are equal causes of Inflation. For Eg.
1. Housing- Provinces/City should hire Developers to build 2 bdrm Condo's and provide them to Public at No Profit/No loss policy. In Greater Vancouver area, if we can get 2 bdrm condo at 450-500K, it would solve so many people's problem.
2. Food- 100% of the food should be grown within the country.
3. Energy- Canada has massive resources, not sure why we still import.
If we focus on building better infrastructure, things would be better for today and tomorrow
#2. Do you seriously believe we can grow tropical fruit like pineapple, bananas, lemons, coconuts, etc in Canada? Other hot-climate agriculture like coffee beans, olives, pistachios? LOL.
1.) Healthcare being *FREE* and higher education being heavily subsidized by the decades of government fiscal deficit spending that has contributed towards inflated housing values yet you think more government spending is the solution?!
@@funkspinna greenhouses
@@Iliinois18 If only it were that simple.
Not everyone has the right to live in one of the nicest cities in the world.
Government is inefficient and incompetent. You seriously think they can build ha 2bdrm for $450-500k? Hahaha.. maybe double that.
It cost them (us actually) $650k to build a small outdoor bathroom. Giving the government more of your money is the last thing you should want to do.
Our healthcare system is a disgrace.. wonder the actual costs for each citizen annually?
TRREB February stats show continued price increases and lower inventory. This doesn't seem to reflect a turning in the market at least in Toronto. What's the Vancouver board reporting?
He mentioned that it won't show up in the data for 2 month's or so.. the data lags
Needed this one. Hope Keith is right.
this show should be the toonie hour. ones not enough!
🤣
“Hey, there is a bubble...”
Welcome back Gentlemen
The intro track is so good.
Enjoyed this episode moire than Twinkies
Pot ash... Pot ash, say it with me... Pot...ash lol damn office workers.
LOL!
50bps hike with oil at $115 a barrel...sounds like a good plan LOL! Que the next depression...
LOL 😆
Are you basing that statement on the premise that EVERYTHING requires borrowed money ?
1% rate hike coming in April
I’m friends with Tiff
@@muskokaboats Tiff
@@muskokaboats i wouldn't admit that
@@chillier8363 Tiff??
@@chandrakanthreddy812 Who is Tiff? I can't get any results in here
keith isn't making much sense. how could they kick out china from swift when they make all the stuff?
The world has enough junk ?
@@luckyPiston which junk? The apple products the gore tex jackets or the gaming laptops/ consoles??
@@Guron90 Yup definitely apple data collection, surveillance and freedom crushing aspects
Would a 0.50% rate hike have been better or worse?
dont think this will change much lol
“Make a reminder” sounds strange, right?
Maybe "give a reminder" is more natural.
Yes! Another suggestion: "I'd like to remind the audience..."
Not a good idea to be raising rates again in April.. if they decide to.
I think it's fine for the BoC to raise rates up as far as 1%. Beyond 1%, however, all bets are off!
@@philshyu5248 Is that because the govt won't have access to cheap money to cover deficit spending and will have to actually sell resources to make ends meet .... and that's a bad thing ?
@@luckyPiston It's hard to call anything anymore. In normal times, interest rates need to be above the inflation rate by some margin in order to contain inflation. The government's hokey CPI is at 5% or whatever, so interest rates should be around 6% right now based upon history. But we also know that the BoC is not independent from the Government anymore so has to act politically and the amount of debt that exists is unprecedented. So, as for what's actually going to happen is anybody 's guess. 🤷♂️
@@luckyPiston But as for the markets, I don't expect any serious problems until the interest rates get above 1% is all I was saying. Above 1%, we may start to see cracks develop in stock markets, bond markets, the GDP, unemployment, who knows?
@@philshyu5248 Govt says to BOC make money cheap to stimulate the economy. Govt says to people oh and by the way we are shutting down energy and resources so spend your cheap money somewhere else.
2 years later we have housing bubble bigger than the moon , low bank rate is actually paying u to borrow money if its going into real estate and people are saying how do we slow a runaway train ???? opposite of the way u took the brakes off but no one wants talk about that !!!!!
What is he smoking ?
.50 dont you see the situation Ukraine and gas prices. Wow
Explain how the .50 is even connected , i'm not seeing it ?
@@luckyPiston let me explain that it will not ho up another .50 at the next meeting because of what is goimg on
@@Relaxlifeisshort2 That's not an answer .... how are you connecting borrowing rate with gas price ?
@@luckyPiston
It is an additional strain on the economy
That is what i mean