Could it be more about not wanting the first round draft pick penalty where your pick is moved down 10 spots? That decreases the bonus pool the team is allocated.
all things equal, that is a relatively minor thing in the grand scheme of building an org with a $200+ million payroll at the major league level also, that doesn't come into play at all unless you are $40 million or more into the tax
@@johnmayne1565yes it is. But again they would have to exceed the threshold by more than $40M for that to happen. So as long as they stay within the first or second tier of the CBT tax they lose no draft picks. Just money. And a fairly insignificant amount of money at that.
Injuries and market rates seemed to have thrown a wrench into their offseason plans. We've heard them connected to several players, I just think they aren't willing to pay the current prices. That may help them the closer it gets to spring training but the pool of players that would improve their roster gets smaller every day.
Guys……I’ve been planting my 2025 hopes on the rise of Nacho Alvarez. In my dreams he was going to light the world on fire at New Port…..and low and behold, SS is fixed. Our lineup is formidable again. Now you say he can’t hit a major league fastball and his arm is nothing to write home about. I need a blue box from the Braves Bluesky account!
I agree, there has been nothing to indicate that the Braves care about the monetary penalties of the tax. I do think they want to avoid the draft penalties if possible. It's all about waiting for the right deal
@@HammerTerritory Incorrect, there's also the 2nd arn 5th round draft penalties, along with the loss of $1mil in bonus pool money for signing qualified offer players.
@@HammerTerritory There's no inclination as to that it is or isn't about signing qualifying offer players, that's an assumption on your part, as it's a pretty generalized question towards "monetary penalties of the tax" and that they"want to avoid draft penalties if possible"
There's also a fact of the matter that they get heavily penalized trying to add qualifying offer players, as they lose their 2nd and 5th highest selections in the following year's draft, as well as $1mil from their international bonus pool. So that's also a reason to reset the tax.
As discussed in other comments, those penalties only apply when signing a FA with a QO attached, which wasn’t the discussion. There is exactly one remaining free agent with a QO attached that would make sense for the Braves and it’s Nick Pivetta. So it would be a consideration in that one specific case.
@@HammerTerritory Which was a part of my comment when I stated they "get heavily penalized trying to add qualifying offer players". Also sure Pivetta might make sense, but Alex Bregman might too if he were to move off of 3rd base, as he was a shortstop coming up through Houston's system, and has time there in the majors, and I think left field could potentially be an option if he wanted to play there as well, both are things he's done in the past at the major league level. I'm sure a qualified offer was a deterrent in pursuing guys like Willy Adames, Corbin Burnes, Teoscar Hernandez, Sean Manaea and Anthony Santander over the course of this offseason as well.
@@MassBoost Even when you have no argument, you still try to push it. OMG, this guy wants to be right all the time, even when he’s wrong and shown where he was mistaken.
Exact wording on the draft penalty for being in the tax: "Clubs that are $40 MILLION OR MORE above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead." There is no draft penalty unless the team is more than $40 million over the tax, and that also isn't tied to be a repeater in the tax. It's the same whether you go over once or 5 years in a row.
@@HammerTerritory Thank you. It seems when analysts are talking about going over the CBT threshhold for the third time there have been instances where the highest draft pick being moved back has entered the conversation. Thank you
As stated in other comments on this podcast… You don't lose picks. You're citing something that has to do with signing a free agent who had a qualifying offer attached while in the tax. Exact wording on the draft penalty for being in the tax: "Clubs that are $40 MILLION OR MORE above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead." There is no draft penalty unless the team is more than $40 million over the tax, and that also isn't tied to be a repeater in the tax. It's the same whether you go over once or 5 years in a row.
It wasn't just 2 months that were good for Kelenic, for about the first 4 and a half months, into July he was good offensively, as he hit .273/.316/.449, with a 110 wRC+, it was a about a month and a half after that were he was terrible with a 36 wRC+, before returning to a 106 wRC+ hitter the final month of September to finish out the year. They have to figure out, and prevent those extended slums to help make him solid offensively.
You can say it’s not that big a deal, but anyone looking to be competitive long term would consider the luxury tax. Especially the escalation for each year you’re over. That adds up and takes away from what you could spend on players. Having “a number” to spend puts even more emphasis on wanting to NOT increase the luxury tax amount. Would you want to spend your money on players, or taxes?
You don’t lose draft picks until you exceed the third threshold of the CBT. So no matter how many times in a row you exceed the threshold as long as you’re in their one or tier two you only pay the tax. So like he said the difference in going over for a 3rd time vs resetting and then going over for a first time next year would $10M tax this year and then $6M in tax next year. So over 2 years you are only saving $16M by resetting. Doesn’t make sense for a team in a playoff window.
@chrisbirdsall3285 that is not entirely true. Clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead. On top of that of you sign a player who rejected a QO not only you loose your second and third highest draft picks but also 1.0 million of international signing pool. And not only that but your tax amount increases every consecutive year so is not as simple as he put it.
@@HammerTerritory Someone did somewhat of deep dive on Nacho last week, just to see how he stacks up offensively against minor league 3rd baseman and left fielders (suggesting if he were to move positions), and surprising he has some of the best stats/metrics when looking at the top 10 prospects at those positions. Such as, against 3rd basemen: K% - 2nd best, only behind Kasevich BB% - 4th best, only behind Jung, Vivas, & Brito xBA - 2nd best, only behind Kasevich xOBP - he's #1 xSLG - 4th best, only behind Martinez, Mayo, & Shaw xwOBA - 4th best, but only 1 pt from being in a 3-way tie for 2nd best, w/ Mayo & Shaw, which would put him behind only Martinez Whiff% - 2nd best, behind only Kasevich. Even looking at him being able to hit things in the zone out of the zone, and on different pitches, and he's still one of the better hitters amount both groups of top 10 prospects.
I (brad) generally believe in his on-base skills, concern is having very little power. If he can’t stick at short, it’s a tough profile at third or corner OF.
@@HammerTerritory I understand about worrying about the power aspect of that as it's a legit concern, but Nacho's still very young as well at just 21 years old, only Brady House was younger by a couple months out of all these prospects, someone like Jace Jung is already 24, so hopefully his improved power this past year is something to look forward too as he ages. He could probably fit that Alec Bohm hit profile, but with a higher walk rate, and be plenty productive at the major league level. Bohn was a 115 wRC+ hitter this past year, while actually playing good defense for once, and Bohm was a 3.5 fWAR player this past year. I'd take that if that could be Nacho's projection should the Triple A power stay. The whole 3rd base/left field came about with the chatter of people suggesting that maybe Riley could move to left, so they could being in someone else such as Bregman or others, then it got shifted into what Nacho would look like if pitted against the top 3rd basemen or even left fielders prospects in baseball.
I have lost any faith any moves will happen. Braves fans that consider themselves fans should look into boycotting the team until AA and Liberty Media opens their wallets.
You continue just to mention the money is not a big deal, what about the other penalties? Like losing you 2&5 draft pick. We continue to talk about our farm system being depleted. How does it help to lose draft picks?
You don't lose picks. You're citing something that has to do with signing a free agent who had a qualifying offer attached while in the tax. Exact wording on the draft penalty for being in the tax: "Clubs that are $40 MILLION OR MORE above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead." There is no draft penalty unless the team is more than $40 million over the tax, and that also isn't tied to be a repeater in the tax. It's the same whether you go over once or 5 years in a row.
Does this guy not realize that nacho was just drafted? No one can get better according to him. This dude doesn't get it. Take schwellie he was not on the list but now the league sees he is beast. Now there is no way you are giving him up. That's the way it works the problem is Alex is hamstrung. And if people get hurt you are screwed anyway that's the way it goes. They couldnt have saved last year without all their best players and the ones who stayed healthy having down years.SS and lefty arms are tough to get below market value. Who do you think wants to get fleeced by Alex? Ownership just needs to grow a pair and spend market value for good players. This isn't on Alex.
I do think it’s on Alex for not making moves because the BASEBALL team is his to run. If as he says money is not the issue but the market values have increased then your only option is to meet the market.
I do think it’s on Alex for not making moves because the BASEBALL team is his to run. If as he says money is not the issue but the market values have increased then your only option is to meet the market.
@@richardwagner9411 and if he has a cheap budget how is he supposed to do that? You really think if ownership let him have a dodger payroll or whatever he wouldnt have an elite shortstop ect?
Stephen, the market is the market and if you overstate this you have to adjust. I do that in my business and if you fail to do this you lose customers. The Braves are not filling the stadium in 2024 as it was in 22 or 23. Losing customers is a death knoll for your business so Braves need to be aware of this. Thx
You're talking about a small difference in attendance, which is nowhere near the 5,000 to 8,000 less per game difference that 2018/2019/2021 provided over last year. Most of that probably came from all the star power being hurt, with just over 1,100 days of players on the disabled list. I'm sure it would have been different it guys like Strider and Acuna never had gotten hurt.
Jurikson Profar, welcome to Atlanta!!
Let's go Braves!!!
Could it be more about not wanting the first round draft pick penalty where your pick is moved down 10 spots? That decreases the bonus pool the team is allocated.
all things equal, that is a relatively minor thing in the grand scheme of building an org with a $200+ million payroll at the major league level
also, that doesn't come into play at all unless you are $40 million or more into the tax
@@HammerTerritory Draft Capitol is huge to the Braves, has been for years
@@johnmayne1565yes it is. But again they would have to exceed the threshold by more than $40M for that to happen. So as long as they stay within the first or second tier of the CBT tax they lose no draft picks. Just money. And a fairly insignificant amount of money at that.
Injuries and market rates seemed to have thrown a wrench into their offseason plans. We've heard them connected to several players, I just think they aren't willing to pay the current prices. That may help them the closer it gets to spring training but the pool of players that would improve their roster gets smaller every day.
Guys……I’ve been planting my 2025 hopes on the rise of Nacho Alvarez. In my dreams he was going to light the world on fire at New Port…..and low and behold, SS is fixed. Our lineup is formidable again.
Now you say he can’t hit a major league fastball and his arm is nothing to write home about.
I need a blue box from the Braves Bluesky account!
As soon as I sent the above post……we sign Profar. Maybe the beginning of the AA “multiple move week” is here!
Everyone hit tat LIKE BUTTON
I agree, there has been nothing to indicate that the Braves care about the monetary penalties of the tax. I do think they want to avoid the draft penalties if possible. It's all about waiting for the right deal
There are no draft penalties unless the team is $40+ million over the tax line, and even then, they are not massive penalties.
@@HammerTerritory Incorrect, there's also the 2nd arn 5th round draft penalties, along with the loss of $1mil in bonus pool money for signing qualified offer players.
This conversation is not about signing qualifying offer players. But yes, in that specific case, there are draft penalties.
@@HammerTerritory There's no inclination as to that it is or isn't about signing qualifying offer players, that's an assumption on your part, as it's a pretty generalized question towards "monetary penalties of the tax" and that they"want to avoid draft penalties if possible"
There's also a fact of the matter that they get heavily penalized trying to add qualifying offer players, as they lose their 2nd and 5th highest selections in the following year's draft, as well as $1mil from their international bonus pool. So that's also a reason to reset the tax.
Right, these guys are talking about things they seem to not know much about
As discussed in other comments, those penalties only apply when signing a FA with a QO attached, which wasn’t the discussion.
There is exactly one remaining free agent with a QO attached that would make sense for the Braves and it’s Nick Pivetta. So it would be a consideration in that one specific case.
@@HammerTerritory those FAs generally get huge salaries, which isn't something they've done regardless of overall payroll
@@HammerTerritory Which was a part of my comment when I stated they "get heavily penalized trying to add qualifying offer players". Also sure Pivetta might make sense, but Alex Bregman might too if he were to move off of 3rd base, as he was a shortstop coming up through Houston's system, and has time there in the majors, and I think left field could potentially be an option if he wanted to play there as well, both are things he's done in the past at the major league level. I'm sure a qualified offer was a deterrent in pursuing guys like Willy Adames, Corbin Burnes, Teoscar Hernandez, Sean Manaea and Anthony Santander over the course of this offseason as well.
@@MassBoost Even when you have no argument, you still try to push it. OMG, this guy wants to be right all the time, even when he’s wrong and shown where he was mistaken.
Actually why didn't you say anything about the draft pick penalties?
Exact wording on the draft penalty for being in the tax: "Clubs that are $40 MILLION OR MORE above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead."
There is no draft penalty unless the team is more than $40 million over the tax, and that also isn't tied to be a repeater in the tax. It's the same whether you go over once or 5 years in a row.
@@HammerTerritory Thank you. It seems when analysts are talking about going over the CBT threshhold for the third time there have been instances where the highest draft pick being moved back has entered the conversation. Thank you
You are also not mentioning the draft position you lose as well.
As stated in other comments on this podcast…
You don't lose picks. You're citing something that has to do with signing a free agent who had a qualifying offer attached while in the tax.
Exact wording on the draft penalty for being in the tax: "Clubs that are $40 MILLION OR MORE above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead."
There is no draft penalty unless the team is more than $40 million over the tax, and that also isn't tied to be a repeater in the tax. It's the same whether you go over once or 5 years in a row.
It wasn't just 2 months that were good for Kelenic, for about the first 4 and a half months, into July he was good offensively, as he hit .273/.316/.449, with a 110 wRC+, it was a about a month and a half after that were he was terrible with a 36 wRC+, before returning to a 106 wRC+ hitter the final month of September to finish out the year. They have to figure out, and prevent those extended slums to help make him solid offensively.
You can say it’s not that big a deal, but anyone looking to be competitive long term would consider the luxury tax. Especially the escalation for each year you’re over. That adds up and takes away from what you could spend on players. Having “a number” to spend puts even more emphasis on wanting to NOT increase the luxury tax amount. Would you want to spend your money on players, or taxes?
Exactly 👍
Not to mention the loss of draft position which is what the Braves favor above all else to remain competitive long term
You don’t lose draft picks until you exceed the third threshold of the CBT. So no matter how many times in a row you exceed the threshold as long as you’re in their one or tier two you only pay the tax. So like he said the difference in going over for a 3rd time vs resetting and then going over for a first time next year would $10M tax this year and then $6M in tax next year. So over 2 years you are only saving $16M by resetting. Doesn’t make sense for a team in a playoff window.
That tax penalty is a drop on the bucket. No need to reset
Listen to what Stephen said on this podcast
@chrisbirdsall3285 that is not entirely true. Clubs that are $40 million or more above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead.
On top of that of you sign a player who rejected a QO not only you loose your second and third highest draft picks but also 1.0 million of international signing pool.
And not only that but your tax amount increases every consecutive year so is not as simple as he put it.
And then Fangraphs have a top 100, and Nacho's 49th' on there, so there's that.
worth noting that was from july before he had a pretty middling end to the season, i'll be surprised if he's that high on the 2025 board update at FG
@@HammerTerritory Someone did somewhat of deep dive on Nacho last week, just to see how he stacks up offensively against minor league 3rd baseman and left fielders (suggesting if he were to move positions), and surprising he has some of the best stats/metrics when looking at the top 10 prospects at those positions.
Such as, against 3rd basemen:
K% - 2nd best, only behind Kasevich
BB% - 4th best, only behind Jung, Vivas, & Brito
xBA - 2nd best, only behind Kasevich
xOBP - he's #1
xSLG - 4th best, only behind Martinez, Mayo, & Shaw
xwOBA - 4th best, but only 1 pt from being in a 3-way tie for 2nd best, w/ Mayo & Shaw, which would put him behind only Martinez
Whiff% - 2nd best, behind only Kasevich.
Even looking at him being able to hit things in the zone out of the zone, and on different pitches, and he's still one of the better hitters amount both groups of top 10 prospects.
I (brad) generally believe in his on-base skills, concern is having very little power. If he can’t stick at short, it’s a tough profile at third or corner OF.
@@HammerTerritory I understand about worrying about the power aspect of that as it's a legit concern, but Nacho's still very young as well at just 21 years old, only Brady House was younger by a couple months out of all these prospects, someone like Jace Jung is already 24, so hopefully his improved power this past year is something to look forward too as he ages. He could probably fit that Alec Bohm hit profile, but with a higher walk rate, and be plenty productive at the major league level. Bohn was a 115 wRC+ hitter this past year, while actually playing good defense for once, and Bohm was a 3.5 fWAR player this past year. I'd take that if that could be Nacho's projection should the Triple A power stay. The whole 3rd base/left field came about with the chatter of people suggesting that maybe Riley could move to left, so they could being in someone else such as Bregman or others, then it got shifted into what Nacho would look like if pitted against the top 3rd basemen or even left fielders prospects in baseball.
I have lost any faith any moves will happen. Braves fans that consider themselves fans should look into boycotting the team until AA and Liberty Media opens their wallets.
Whatever it is about luxury tax or payroll, they just want to spend less money.
Yeah, considering they have about $25 million they can spend this offseason before reaching the first luxury tax bracket.
You continue just to mention the money is not a big deal, what about the other penalties? Like losing you 2&5 draft pick. We continue to talk about our farm system being depleted. How does it help to lose draft picks?
You don't lose picks. You're citing something that has to do with signing a free agent who had a qualifying offer attached while in the tax.
Exact wording on the draft penalty for being in the tax: "Clubs that are $40 MILLION OR MORE above the threshold shall have their highest selection in the next Rule 4 Draft moved back 10 places unless the pick falls in the top six. In that case, the team will have its second-highest selection moved back 10 places instead."
There is no draft penalty unless the team is more than $40 million over the tax, and that also isn't tied to be a repeater in the tax. It's the same whether you go over once or 5 years in a row.
Does this guy not realize that nacho was just drafted? No one can get better according to him. This dude doesn't get it. Take schwellie he was not on the list but now the league sees he is beast. Now there is no way you are giving him up. That's the way it works the problem is Alex is hamstrung. And if people get hurt you are screwed anyway that's the way it goes. They couldnt have saved last year without all their best players and the ones who stayed healthy having down years.SS and lefty arms are tough to get below market value. Who do you think wants to get fleeced by Alex? Ownership just needs to grow a pair and spend market value for good players. This isn't on Alex.
I do think it’s on Alex for not making moves because the BASEBALL team is his to run. If as he says money is not the issue but the market values have increased then your only option is to meet the market.
I do think it’s on Alex for not making moves because the BASEBALL team is his to run. If as he says money is not the issue but the market values have increased then your only option is to meet the market.
@@richardwagner9411 and if he has a cheap budget how is he supposed to do that? You really think if ownership let him have a dodger payroll or whatever he wouldnt have an elite shortstop ect?
Stephen, the market is the market and if you overstate this you have to adjust. I do that in my business and if you fail to do this you lose customers. The Braves are not filling the stadium in 2024 as it was in 22 or 23.
Losing customers is a death knoll for your business so Braves need to be aware of this. Thx
You're talking about a small difference in attendance, which is nowhere near the 5,000 to 8,000 less per game difference that 2018/2019/2021 provided over last year. Most of that probably came from all the star power being hurt, with just over 1,100 days of players on the disabled list. I'm sure it would have been different it guys like Strider and Acuna never had gotten hurt.
So AA lied to the Braves fans? He decided not to compete in the east ! AA stated on a podcast , he didn’t care , he wasn’t worried about the tax!
Total crap excuse for team that suppose be title contender is this team about winning or not
Hope fans respond by staying away from this shopping mall
Gm is a scared gm