Next week we're going to know more, i hope we have no surprises. Magnifique analyses. Revenue growth slowing down, bad press, deutsch bank saying to sell ... even if they are fined by the regulators. I'd still buy more for this price if i had more money lol
Exactly! All the wall street analysts are reducing their price targets. Everyone is talking about risks on Twitter. Nobody cares about the growth prospects. We'll see! And yes I will try to cover the earnings report. It should be fun.
Salut. Top les analyses sur EVO 👍Je suis rentré très récemment avec un belle cartouche (5% du portefeuille). Ça faisais 2 ans que je suivais la compagnie et que j'étais frustré de ne pas pouvoir rentrer à cause du broker. J'ai changé récemment et au final, cette patience forcée m'a fait topper un très bon prix. Acheteur de Meta en 2022 et je trouve des similitudes comme toi. Par contre c'est dur d'avoir une conviction aussi forte sur le business que sur le leader mondial des réseaux sociaux même si une bonne partie des risque est pricée.
This company is facing current headwinds, but it’s still massively profitable. It also has a lot of cash on hand to further boost the share and business at this time. It should rebound like a slingshot, maybe sooner, maybe later.
The CEO of Evolution has a big stake in the company, he bought shares for 10 million euro last year at 95 euro each. I think it is a Meta moment, in 1-2 years it will be 4x from now I think
At the very least it should have strong performance from this point. If sentiment turns we will have maybe 4x If sentiment doesn’t turn we will have a strong dividend cash machine with buybacks.
Hi Christope, I really enjoyed this. Ive been a Meta shareholder since 2018. I couldn't believe the prices it fell to in 2022.. like you say, the price drove the narrative. Any piece of negative news seemed to crash the share price by 10%, even from such a low base. The fundamentals and user numbers were improving throughout.. maybe some dips in average revenue per user, as marketing budgets across US business dropped that year (marketing is always so cyclical) but generally the business was so strong. I've been a shareholder of Evolution for 5 months.. and I'd also made a similar comparison between Evolution and Meta, for many of the reasons you've mentioned. I agree the CEO isn't in the same league as Zuckerberg (who is?) but from what I can tell, he and the other key leaders are very impressive.
Hey, thanks for your great comment. Couldn't agree more here. Time will tell if EVO's CEO will implement a year of efficiency. And come back to big growth.
Another company similar to this was BOTB, who had high ROIC and operated a car lottery business here in the U.K. They ended up getting bought out at a premium to intrinsic value and taken private! In my experience it’s very rare that we (the general public) get access to businesses that l generate cash like Evo does, private equity normally hides this sort of thing!
Hey, thanks for sharing and for the recommendation. I didn't know BOTB. EVO buying bought by private equity is unlikely, it has become too big. I've heard rumors though. Well, that would be unfortunate for us long term investors!
@ Yes I always worry when the share price gets too low of a hostile takeover haha. Thanks for the video, love watching them and see all the hard work you put into them!
It feels like we’re at a point where investors are looking for reasons to sell. Should we really be that alarmed that EBITDA margins are onnnnlllly guided to be 66-68% in 2025? That’s the whole appeal in investing in companies with high margins - the bottom line is more resilient. Investors are overreacting to this dip in EBITDA margins… this isn’t a coal mining business! Today’s sell off feels silly. I’m out so far in my investment but will continue to hold long term. The fundamentals will prevail
There was a lot of anxiety about regulation and Capex in 2022 for meta. If you remember, everyone was worrying about the ‘metaverse’ being a waste of money, but the fundamentals never changed. Bad news = good buying opportunity, it’s very rare a cheap price comes with no bad news!
I remember people also thought TikTokt was going to replace Instagram completely and Facebook/instagram dying. A quarter with single digit growth tanked the stock 20% in a day, Apple id tracking changes, etc. A cocktail of bad news! With evolution I also notice the cocktail of bad news, Georgia strikes and protests, short reports,new cfo, UK investigation, lawsuits against executives, Asia cyber attacks, slower growth, etc. Couple that with a falling stock and you get a feedback loop of bad news. Usually narrative follows price. Remember the China stocks spike recently? All of a sudden you saw videos “Is China investable again?”
Seeing long time Evolution holders starting to pull out these days, either suddenly growing a conscience about gambling, worried about the CTO situation, or just not able to take the pain anymore. Bottoming out here perhaps?
Yeah, now its the time to buy heavy. Sentiment is at all time low, and alot of people has sold. This is the time to buy. That's my opinion. My biggest holding =)
Indeed, sentiment is bad. Maybe you are right. I've had the same reasoning at the Q3 report and it wasn't the bottom yet. Maybe this time. Just for the sake of the comparison, META bottom 3 months after the CFO was changed. Meta bottomed when they announced cost-cutting measures. We will see what happens! Thanks for your comment.
Started buying Evolution, I also see a similar story to Meta. Lets await the newest report, I hope u will cover it then, when there are big changes reported :)
Im not so comfortable with the moat. Why can't a competitor hire live eastern european dealers and gove casinos a bigger piece of the revenue split? Why can't a competior set up and hire live dealers in India or the Philippines for less cost than EVO in Eastern Europe?
Hey, thanks for your comment. I like that management is buying more shares as the price goes down. The next step is to initiate a big buyback program. Have a great day!
Seems like a great company but at a high price. Not personally for me at current prices for whatever that is worth. I'm also not crazy about companies with high capex requirements. Powerful moat though...if they can keep it up. Only they can make what they make which is crazy that such a company exists despite the demand for their products.
One of the best moats on the planet. In the top 10 world. Amazing management. Amazing growth prospects. With AI everything will likely accelerate. I've analyzed ASML and the big capex didn't suit my investment style. And it's a little bit expensive at the moment. With that said, if it drops a lot, to PE 25-30, I might be interested.
I was looking at your public portfolio, and you seem to have gotten in on Evolution at a price range of 1000 - 1225. Considering the price is currently below 850, and you believe that it will explode soon, what's stopping you from doubling down and buying even more shares in Evolution at this discounted price? Also, do you still believe that LB is a strong buy at a price of 79-80? Thanks for the content Christophe!
Hey, thanks for the question. That's already 10% of my portfolio (down from 14% originally). If I double down that would mean 20% of my portfolio. Something I'm not confortable with. What if I'm wrong? I want the good allocation that will propel my gains if I'm right, and something that will not destroy my performance if I'm wrong. For LB, I don't want to buy above $80 at the moment.
Investing Coaching Program: www.christophenour.com/investing
I bought 100 shares at 810 SEK today. I'm very optimistic at that stockprice given all the fundamentals
Awesome! I wish you the best for your portfolio. Wait and see!
i also have a small position on evolution ab. thanks for the video. i follow u
Awesome, thanks for your comment !
Next week we're going to know more, i hope we have no surprises. Magnifique analyses. Revenue growth slowing down, bad press, deutsch bank saying to sell ... even if they are fined by the regulators. I'd still buy more for this price if i had more money lol
Exactly! All the wall street analysts are reducing their price targets. Everyone is talking about risks on Twitter. Nobody cares about the growth prospects. We'll see! And yes I will try to cover the earnings report. It should be fun.
Loved It ! thanks for your work on this one
Thank you for your support! We’ll see where EVO goes in 2025.
@christophenour To the moon!
Salut. Top les analyses sur EVO 👍Je suis rentré très récemment avec un belle cartouche (5% du portefeuille).
Ça faisais 2 ans que je suivais la compagnie et que j'étais frustré de ne pas pouvoir rentrer à cause du broker. J'ai changé récemment et au final, cette patience forcée m'a fait topper un très bon prix.
Acheteur de Meta en 2022 et je trouve des similitudes comme toi. Par contre c'est dur d'avoir une conviction aussi forte sur le business que sur le leader mondial des réseaux sociaux même si une bonne partie des risque est pricée.
Hello, thanks for sharing your experience, fellow EVO shareholder! We will see soon if EVO can continue growing and staying number 1!
This company is facing current headwinds, but it’s still massively profitable. It also has a lot of cash on hand to further boost the share and business at this time.
It should rebound like a slingshot, maybe sooner, maybe later.
Yes, the risk/reward ratio is very attractive here.
Thank you - great analysis!
Thank you very much!
Great comparison, thanks !
Thank you very much! I wish you a great day.
The CEO of Evolution has a big stake in the company, he bought shares for 10 million euro last year at 95 euro each. I think it is a Meta moment, in 1-2 years it will be 4x from now I think
Let's hope for the best. Thanks for your comment!
At the very least it should have strong performance from this point.
If sentiment turns we will have maybe 4x
If sentiment doesn’t turn we will have a strong dividend cash machine with buybacks.
Hi Christope, I really enjoyed this. Ive been a Meta shareholder since 2018. I couldn't believe the prices it fell to in 2022.. like you say, the price drove the narrative. Any piece of negative news seemed to crash the share price by 10%, even from such a low base. The fundamentals and user numbers were improving throughout.. maybe some dips in average revenue per user, as marketing budgets across US business dropped that year (marketing is always so cyclical) but generally the business was so strong. I've been a shareholder of Evolution for 5 months.. and I'd also made a similar comparison between Evolution and Meta, for many of the reasons you've mentioned. I agree the CEO isn't in the same league as Zuckerberg (who is?) but from what I can tell, he and the other key leaders are very impressive.
Hey, thanks for your great comment. Couldn't agree more here. Time will tell if EVO's CEO will implement a year of efficiency. And come back to big growth.
Another company similar to this was BOTB, who had high ROIC and operated a car lottery business here in the U.K. They ended up getting bought out at a premium to intrinsic value and taken private! In my experience it’s very rare that we (the general public) get access to businesses that l generate cash like Evo does, private equity normally hides this sort of thing!
Hey, thanks for sharing and for the recommendation. I didn't know BOTB.
EVO buying bought by private equity is unlikely, it has become too big. I've heard rumors though. Well, that would be unfortunate for us long term investors!
@ Yes I always worry when the share price gets too low of a hostile takeover haha. Thanks for the video, love watching them and see all the hard work you put into them!
@ Thank you very much!!
It feels like we’re at a point where investors are looking for reasons to sell. Should we really be that alarmed that EBITDA margins are onnnnlllly guided to be 66-68% in 2025? That’s the whole appeal in investing in companies with high margins - the bottom line is more resilient. Investors are overreacting to this dip in EBITDA margins… this isn’t a coal mining business! Today’s sell off feels silly. I’m out so far in my investment but will continue to hold long term. The fundamentals will prevail
Couldn't agree more. I released a video today with more information about the Q4 report.
@ will give it a watch! Subbed.
@ Welcome!
completement d accord avec ce que tu dis!!
Thanks a lot. We will see what happens in 2025. Your comments definitely help every time with the algorithm. I wish you a great day!
There was a lot of anxiety about regulation and Capex in 2022 for meta. If you remember, everyone was worrying about the ‘metaverse’ being a waste of money, but the fundamentals never changed. Bad news = good buying opportunity, it’s very rare a cheap price comes with no bad news!
I remember people also thought TikTokt was going to replace Instagram completely and Facebook/instagram dying. A quarter with single digit growth tanked the stock 20% in a day, Apple id tracking changes, etc. A cocktail of bad news! With evolution I also notice the cocktail of bad news, Georgia strikes and protests, short reports,new cfo, UK investigation, lawsuits against executives, Asia cyber attacks, slower growth, etc. Couple that with a falling stock and you get a feedback loop of bad news. Usually narrative follows price. Remember the China stocks spike recently? All of a sudden you saw videos “Is China investable again?”
Yes, narrative always follows the price. And Wall Street analysts all reduced their price targets for META.
Seeing long time Evolution holders starting to pull out these days, either suddenly growing a conscience about gambling, worried about the CTO situation, or just not able to take the pain anymore. Bottoming out here perhaps?
Yeah, now its the time to buy heavy. Sentiment is at all time low, and alot of people has sold. This is the time to buy. That's my opinion. My biggest holding =)
Indeed, sentiment is bad. Maybe you are right. I've had the same reasoning at the Q3 report and it wasn't the bottom yet. Maybe this time.
Just for the sake of the comparison, META bottom 3 months after the CFO was changed.
Meta bottomed when they announced cost-cutting measures.
We will see what happens! Thanks for your comment.
@ Congrats on showing conviction! I agree that sentiment is very very bad for the stock now. We'll see what happens with the Q4 report!
Started buying Evolution, I also see a similar story to Meta. Lets await the newest report, I hope u will cover it then, when there are big changes reported :)
I will! Thank you for the comment, and I wish you the best with great gains in 2025!
Im not so comfortable with the moat. Why can't a competitor hire live eastern european dealers and gove casinos a bigger piece of the revenue split? Why can't a competior set up and hire live dealers in India or the Philippines for less cost than EVO in Eastern Europe?
It’s much harder to keep good games. And it’s simple for casino operators to work with EVO. Switching costs.
Hi Christophe, what do you think about recent insiders trading (CEO buy/sale in Dec 24)? Thanks for great content!
Hey, thanks for your comment. I like that management is buying more shares as the price goes down. The next step is to initiate a big buyback program. Have a great day!
Nice
Indeed!
What's your biggest position?
@ $BN.
what do you think of ASML?
Seems like a great company but at a high price. Not personally for me at current prices for whatever that is worth. I'm also not crazy about companies with high capex requirements. Powerful moat though...if they can keep it up. Only they can make what they make which is crazy that such a company exists despite the demand for their products.
One of the best moats on the planet. In the top 10 world. Amazing management. Amazing growth prospects. With AI everything will likely accelerate.
I've analyzed ASML and the big capex didn't suit my investment style. And it's a little bit expensive at the moment. With that said, if it drops a lot, to PE 25-30, I might be interested.
@ Yeah it's a little expensive at the moment. Capex is high and cyclical. If it drops 30% or more, that could be interested.
I was looking at your public portfolio, and you seem to have gotten in on Evolution at a price range of 1000 - 1225. Considering the price is currently below 850, and you believe that it will explode soon, what's stopping you from doubling down and buying even more shares in Evolution at this discounted price? Also, do you still believe that LB is a strong buy at a price of 79-80? Thanks for the content Christophe!
Its already 10% of his portfolio.
Hey, thanks for the question. That's already 10% of my portfolio (down from 14% originally). If I double down that would mean 20% of my portfolio. Something I'm not confortable with. What if I'm wrong?
I want the good allocation that will propel my gains if I'm right, and something that will not destroy my performance if I'm wrong.
For LB, I don't want to buy above $80 at the moment.
@ Exactly.
@ Exactly.