Just got laid off two weeks ago, and am so happy because I can attend this conference in its entirety and I became a profitable futures day trader recently and spent 2022-2023 aggressively saving and investing so am okay without a job now, hopefully I can keep this going and make my portfolio a lot stronger faster. Thank you for mentioning this conference, it sounds like it is incredibly important and at the very least, will turn any participant in society into a well rounded knowledgeable individual on the conferences topics. Even one of these a year makes for a huge difference between someone aware and unaware of “the times” we live in, especially for investing.
Dear Adam, Friendly feedback: I watch most of your wealthion interviews. They're great and you do a great job. But if you could please stop interrupting the experts you're interviewing and saying "Sorry to interrupt but..." and then proceed to interrupt them. If you watch your interviews you'll see that you do it multiple times in most every interview. It's very off putting as a viewer as I want to hear the expert finish his or her thoughts. The interviews would be so much better if you would let the experts finish their thoughts before you interject or ask a follow up question. Thank you! ~ Faithful viewer. 🙂
lol... no thats not what people wanted to vote for at that time.... great plan, lets keep allowing them to arbritrarily change all rules, have 100% voter turnout all over the place and in nursing homes, 100s of thousands of uncertifibale ghost vots in AZ, anda llow them to keep counting for however long they want for the first time in history... and then pretend its raining by you mental midgets...
I appreciate your approach to teaching.. To my understanding this just proves how much we need an edge as investors because playing the market like everyone else just isn’t good enough, we just need to hold onto our hopes and wait to see how things turn out because market movements are almost always unpredictable. In my portfolio, I'm noticing more red than green.
As with an my big financial decision,it’s important to keep your guard’s up for economic risks. However, smart planning, time management and seeking advise from a financial adviser can help keep you and your money safe
@@kenanporubsky2122 yes i agree and right now the markets are going berserk right now. This is the best time to watch them, get to know them better, and strike when the opportunity presents itself. I learned that from my mentor, ‘’’Catherine Morrison Evans'' she's seen dozens of market cycles over the past few decades, and she has a feel for how they move, why they move, and what comes next.
@@lipglosskitten2610 Sure, the Investment advisor that guides me is '''Catherine Morrison Evans'' and she's renowned and has quite a following. So it shouldn't be a hassle finding her. Just look her up.
@@kenanporubsky2122 ''Christine really seem to know her stuff. I found her website, read through her resume, educational background, qualifications and it was really impressive. She is a fiduciary who will act in my best interest. So, I booked a session with her
I am not sure how we go from ridiculous valuations at peak to fair valuations (S&P 500, 4800 to 3580) (down 25%)and now back to high valuations at 4150 only being down 13% overall. Going down 10% from here putting us back to the Oct low area of 25% down and a 16 P/E and that is the low. That makes zero sense with lower fwd earnings from Oct levels. No way we dont go lower IF a recession hits. 2022 was nothing but valuation compression. Going from the stratospheric levels Jan 2022 to normalish levels is just not sane reasoning without an overshoot on downside! Sounds like positive thinking/wants vs actual historical reasoning. No one knows of course what will happen in future, but history says recessions hit harder than one expects.
Another hit Adam! Thank you for all that you guys do, I watch every day or at least once a week to keep up with everything and having this information has been incredibly influential in my profitability.
Adam, Lance I do all the grocery shopping for my family. The prices were stabilizing. 1-2weeks ago it started rising again. Now it's picking up and many goods I buy have jumped to highs I have not seen before. mostly groceries? As you know probably gasoline is rising in price. For your consideration? P.S. Great show!
I found prices rising just the week around Easter for food items they are going back to pre Easter prices for some items, rest is still high here in Europe, oil and oil products have gone down but I would expect this as we are hitting summer season. The European Central Bank just published an interesting research around pricing where two countries in Europe are border countries and the ECB researchers found that the prices were staying high not because of issues around cost or even infrastructure concerns but simply because of cultural historical assumptions that pricing in certain areas are deemed higher and people would simply accept it and comparing or alternatives were made difficult. It is worth considering globally, personally I think it is partial greed. I am a great believer for fixing root causes and at the moment no one wants to address or fix the real issues so we end up with some of those funny policy attempts as discussed in particularly around housing. Definitely worth to discuss further.
count your blessings here in Europe food prices up 20% plus every MONTH despite being told rate of inflation falling. Some branded foods from likes of Heinz, Unilever et al. up 2 - 3 times since beginning of year.
Love this weekly show. I'm just getting more into the markets etc. As such, when Lance said they saw sell signals and sold down on Friday, be great know what those signals were buy or sell . Just overview . Probably charts and the MACD . Be good to know then follow up myself for more understanding
I bought some SQQQ last week at 30.80 per share.. I see a double bottom on the daily chart with the MACD indicator rising, telling me there is some bullish divergence for this product
@31:00 for about a minute - this us what I consider A Daisy Chain Recession. Each sector had down periods but in series instead of in parallel. That's why it's so hard to figure out if/when a recession has/will occur. Maybe we meed to further divide the term "recession" into it's smaller components (atm it's too all or nothing)
Can anyone elaborate on what they were talking about when they mentioned ruining your credit around the 1:17:00 mark? Is that for getting more aid if you ruin your credit on purpose ?
Lance has forgotten large chunks of history. Lehman didn't break the market- S&P 500 close the Friday before it failed was 1249, S&P 500 close the next Friday was 1255, and that was with Lehman's failure and AIG's bailout. The market broke on September 29th when the bailout bill was rejected, and the S&P dropped 107 points against the 59 when Lehman surprise collapsed. Lehman wasn't a cause and it wasn't even a trigger, it was just a symptom of the broken system- a corpse washed up on the beach by the storm, not the storm itself and there was no stopping it. Even after TARP was ratified there was another 200 point drop before the S&P even had an up day and the S&P was down >25% in 2 weeks.
Hey lance! Most of those rundown houses in poor neighborhoods are rentals. And the people who do own are poor and often old so they don’t have a lot of money or ability for home improvements.
👍Thanks, some guys below might rush to make bitchy comments about this or that, but I am very grateful for all this free info -- and every week there's something to be gained from a casual little insight that Lance has said.👍
This is one reason I run my own money calling for a mild 10% correction from here and assuming the FED will rapidly "pivot" back to zero rates is pure nonsese. Put in a 50% market drop and 10% unemployment rate maybe the FED could go to ZERO rates. My base case is a 20-30% bumpy correction from here a 5-6% unemployment rate an a drop to about 3% by mid to late election year 2024. I do agree a long Treasury position like EDV will be the place to be this summer into 2024.
Agreed! I replied similarly. 10% down from here of course could be the case, but guessing how it will turn out based on past behavior and data, only going down 10% from current levels makes no sense other than positive guessing.
Agree, we had a 20% decline in the S&P last year and the Fed kept raising. Why would they pivot now unless inflation goes back to 2% or something disastrous happens
Hi Adam thanks for your great show. Lance advising buy long term bonds while the likes of Ray Dalio advising to stay away at all cost. In 2022 The market fell and unexpectantly bonds also fell. In 2023 if the market falls will bonds now behave as expected and rise? Why?
In 2022, bonds fell because interest rates went up. For 2023, the Fed may raise rates a quarter point but probably not much more than that. And if something breaks (e.g. stocks collapse or credit markets freeze or recession hits hard with big layoffs), then the Fed may cut rates, which would propel long-term treasury bonds higher.
Maybe someone could comment on this but i think higher interest rates that pop the housing bubble would be most benificial to low income people trying to buy a home.
Isn't time to see Simon hunt again ? Would be interesting to see his new outlook and opinions after all that have been unfolding since the last interview
We had subsidised housing in the UK via the Help to Buy scheme. It was of dubious value but did keep house prices higher, making affordability for the very ones the scheme was supposed to help even worse.
About the home purchasing program the buyer has to pay it back when the home is sold or refinanced, It falls in like a second loan, you guys know this , don’t hold on the information
On the HOPE indicator, as an engineer I have seen 3 Red lights & 1 Green light, I have also seen the first Red light turn Green again preventing a system failure. If the FED starts cutting rates maybe the housing market will take off again, hence rendering the HOPE indicator useless. So my point is, it can hardly be described as the best indicator out there.
Thank you for covering the issue of treasury, default risk. This has been keeping me up at night the last few weeks as I have a majority of my wealth in short term T-bills.
There are lots of mixed opinions about stocks and there projection in the next coming years, I aim for short term solid gains from market correction and I'd definitely jump on the boat if I knew a thing or two about day-trading, but then again what do I really know? I'm just looking for the right moves to grow and hedge my stagnant reserve of $370k from inflation.
it's all hype! best to ignore the trend at the moment whether bullish or bearish, and stick to a proper trading plan preferably with expertise assistance.
@@MarthaDavis-fh6cw Yeah, more reason I enjoy my day to day market decisions is that i'm being guided by a portfolio-coach, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time, both employing profit-oriented strategy and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downtrends, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis, it's quite impossible not to outperform. Netted over $1.5m in return on investment, since using a coach 2years and counting.
@@lindholmlille Thats true, I've been getting assisted by a FA for almost a year now, I started out with less than $200K and I'm just $19,000 short of half a million in profit.
@@margaritasbunny >I understand that tomorrow isn't promised to anyone, but investing today is hard for me now because I have no idea of how and where to invest in. I would be happy if you could advise me based on how you went about yours, as I am ready to go the passive income path.
As for the 100% financing (DPA) programs, the CA Dreams was actually pretty good. I get that none of us voted for it but I read that this was slush money that Newsome grabbed and allocated to this program. The parameters seemed decently risk balanced and borrowers had to fully qualify. Here’s, the problem- there was so little money allocated that it sold out in the first 15 minutes of being able to lock a borrower. So unless he magically finds more money, the program sold out and it’s a one and done. Very little exposure to the state- I think under $30 mm ,which is nothing. Great show as always with you and Lance- very much enjoy the banter
I was completely surprise by the HOPE methodology. In the land of quasi scientific of economic analysis, this HOPE method is the most scientific. It does make a lot of senses.
Can’t wait for the General Clark interview. As a former Democrat presidential candidate, his opinion about the current state of his party. should be intriguing. Also, his views about the Ukrainian war would be very beneficial.
If so many in the market place are bears, why would that equate to ATH being made in most European markets and a dubious pump higher throughout March? I think it’s more to do with FOMO, the same 10/12 companies get plastered all over the financial news with “AI” linked to the headline and it’s dragged the market higher by dumb money (this is 100% a trap). Most of the companies I personally own have traded sideways at best (I’m not paying the PE for those mega cap stocks with these macros) during this supposed “bull market”. Market maker will at some point soon rug pull the lot and it’ll cost dumb money (us) a lot of $$$s. It’s not recession ppl should worry about now it’s the obvious stagflation over the next 2/3 years.
The 2011 U.S. Debt Ceiling Crisis was a contentious debate in Congress that occurred in July 2011 regarding the maximum amount of debt the federal government should be allowed. Congress resolved the debt ceiling crisis by passing the Budget Control Act of 2011, which became law on August 2, 2011.
Question do the earnings valuations factor in the much higher inflation rate? I mein where it inflation that hasn't been around since 1980 and I remember when I was in college in November of 1982 pe were 8
I live in BC, Canada and there are literally communist rise workers posters plastered near my university and the government services union on strike have a flag that's completely communist colors... it's going great up here too...
It seems to me that all of these charts really only make sense if the economy is moving along on an even keel. We have a complete business shut down for some time. This disrupts all charts and all projects. It will take at least a couple of years before all of the charts make any sense.
The rally failed in a really bad place, not taking out the February high, which means a lower high has been put in(if in fact the rally is over)....this would likely mean a move back to 3800 would be a likely scenario... i guess it all depends on how markets react to the mega cap tech earnings this coming week. thanks guys, always a pleasure!
@@Agooo13431 i think this very well could be a bear trap as well, as the rally may simply be putting in a bull flag consolidation, and we could get one further push higher up to the august 2022 high area.... have to be open to both scenarios, since the uptrend isn't technically broken yet until we test SPY 407 area... daily closes below that will likely test one more critical area around 404 and then that would confirm to me a big move lower is in the works....we'll see, as the reactions to mega cap earnings this week will determine, and watch the semi conductors SOX, SMH....as they will be the tell for sure, and are currently sitting right on their major uptrend line from october low... i'm looking to aggressively short this group and it could be a monster trade! good luck my friend, and don't predict.....REACT!
I will tell you why I bought a 4-week treasury note. My bank was having special CD rates for new money, so I just went on my Treasury direct account and bought a full week note. When the money transferred back in, I got the 5% rate at my bank. I suspect this is what a lot of people are doing, perhaps their bank is only given them rates on new money and this is one way to take money away and bring it back as new money.
"You can't incentivize poor people with capital because they have no skin in the game and got it for free" Says the corporate capitalists who just got banksters bailed out for 160 billion dollars because they spent all their customer's money! Hypocrisy meet mirror.
That money market fund explanation on the 1 month treasury yield thing doesn’t make a lot of sense. With the exception of money market funds that call themselves “treasury only funds”, all other government type funds can lend into the overnight treasury repo market, where the Fed’s reverse repo facility will borrow nearly unlimited amount every day in order to keep the SOFR rate within FOMC policy range. Stated differently, they have somewhere else to go that pays the SOFR rate than the 1 month treasury.
The argument I’d make Lance is “where’s the money” if they need to step in and stimulate just where’s the money for that coming from? And how does that impact inflation….. these aren’t the same environments we had in 08, it’s worse!!
It is a truly bizarre situation at the moment with the market holding up despite all the terrible data! Presumably when all those on the sidelines throw in the towel and dive in, then the bottom will drop out!
Are those the same bills that assist the government to participate and engage in Wars, on the strength that once the war commences the bills will be repaid?
Vix is at recent near all time lows, . so NO, majority is not bearish. Actually majority is at complacency stage. Retail is buying on the dips thinking the FED is will pivot. This run is nothing more than a bail out from the FED liquidity to the regional banks.
Real wage Wages in the U.S. have stagnated since the early 1970s. Between 1979 and 2020, workers' wages grew by 17.5% while productivity grew over three times as fast at 61.8% If business owners can't pay their people and it is shunted upward then maybe 'losing' those people to other countries wouldn't be a negative
Gents, I understand your frustration with those in power trying to help people that will have a difficult time retaining an asset (real estate) that they really can't afford. What would you suggest to keep the less financially capable from revolting?
We need a significant recession to lower the price of housing by ~25%, and we need the government to not bail everyone out and go back to 0% interest rates
Could all of the high short term rates and overnight rates for the central banks be the vacuum to get long term dollars short ( so they don't go out 5 years at4- 5% on CD's if you can get them that are not callable) prior to the public being coaxed into demanding a central bank digital currency or a change in law to get a fed coin in addition to providing short term liquidity for the system for the high inflation???????.
I was going to characterize some of the discussion as a long way to say...kick the can down the road" without fixing any problems for both debt and the monetary system. Great channel and overall discussion ...as to the multiple problems that everyone is facing to figure out the long and short term.
He mentions money supply still being elevated that might hold off a recession but I think it will just make the lag from Fed actions get stretched a bit longer
LEARN MORE about the upcoming Strategic Investment Conference at wealthion.sic23.com/
Just got laid off two weeks ago, and am so happy because I can attend this conference in its entirety and I became a profitable futures day trader recently and spent 2022-2023 aggressively saving and investing so am okay without a job now, hopefully I can keep this going and make my portfolio a lot stronger faster. Thank you for mentioning this conference, it sounds like it is incredibly important and at the very least, will turn any participant in society into a well rounded knowledgeable individual on the conferences topics. Even one of these a year makes for a huge difference between someone aware and unaware of “the times” we live in, especially for investing.
Dear Adam, Friendly feedback: I watch most of your wealthion interviews. They're great and you do a great job. But if you could please stop interrupting the experts you're interviewing and saying "Sorry to interrupt but..." and then proceed to interrupt them. If you watch your interviews you'll see that you do it multiple times in most every interview. It's very off putting as a viewer as I want to hear the expert finish his or her thoughts. The interviews would be so much better if you would let the experts finish their thoughts before you interject or ask a follow up question. Thank you! ~ Faithful viewer. 🙂
lol... no thats not what people wanted to vote for at that time....
great plan, lets keep allowing them to arbritrarily change all rules, have 100% voter turnout all over the place and in nursing homes, 100s of thousands of uncertifibale ghost vots in AZ, anda llow them to keep counting for however long they want for the first time in history... and then pretend its raining by you mental midgets...
It's critical that you be able to "call an audible" although if you don't know American football terms you're kinda screwed.
The Debt Cellini is there for the politicians to show us how important they are.
I appreciate your approach to teaching.. To my understanding this just proves how much we need an edge as investors because playing the market like everyone else just isn’t good enough, we just need to hold onto our hopes and wait to see how things turn out because market movements are almost always unpredictable. In my portfolio, I'm noticing more red than green.
As with an my big financial decision,it’s important to keep your guard’s up for economic risks.
However, smart planning, time management and seeking advise from a financial adviser can help keep you and your money safe
@@kenanporubsky2122 yes i agree and right now the markets are going berserk right now. This is the best time to watch them, get to know them better, and strike when the opportunity presents itself. I learned that from my mentor, ‘’’Catherine Morrison Evans'' she's seen dozens of market cycles over the past few decades, and she has a feel for how they move, why they move, and what comes next.
@@lipglosskitten2610 Sure, the Investment advisor that guides me is '''Catherine Morrison Evans'' and she's renowned and has quite a following. So it shouldn't be a hassle finding her. Just look her up.
@@kenanporubsky2122 ''Christine really seem to know her stuff. I found her website, read through her resume, educational background, qualifications and it was really impressive. She is a fiduciary who will act in my best interest. So, I booked a session with her
Congratulations Adam! You are now an economic STAR! Much success to you!
I am not sure how we go from ridiculous valuations at peak to fair valuations (S&P 500, 4800 to 3580) (down 25%)and now back to high valuations at 4150 only being down 13% overall. Going down 10% from here putting us back to the Oct low area of 25% down and a 16 P/E and that is the low. That makes zero sense with lower fwd earnings from Oct levels. No way we dont go lower IF a recession hits. 2022 was nothing but valuation compression. Going from the stratospheric levels Jan 2022 to normalish levels is just not sane reasoning without an overshoot on downside! Sounds like positive thinking/wants vs actual historical reasoning. No one knows of course what will happen in future, but history says recessions hit harder than one expects.
Do you think he has a few calls that need to print?
Another hit Adam! Thank you for all that you guys do, I watch every day or at least once a week to keep up with everything and having this information has been incredibly influential in my profitability.
Most recent days have been Dojis. An old Floor trader once told me "never sell a sleeping market".
Always an enjoyable presentation, you two! I appreciate you all!
Can’t wait for Lance’s next article
Adam, Lance I do all the grocery shopping for my family. The prices were stabilizing. 1-2weeks ago it started rising again. Now it's picking up and many goods I buy have jumped to highs I have not seen before. mostly groceries? As you know probably gasoline is rising in price. For your consideration? P.S. Great show!
confirm in Nevada. Prices up 10%
I found prices rising just the week around Easter for food items they are going back to pre Easter prices for some items, rest is still high here in Europe, oil and oil products have gone down but I would expect this as we are hitting summer season. The European Central Bank just published an interesting research around pricing where two countries in Europe are border countries and the ECB researchers found that the prices were staying high not because of issues around cost or even infrastructure concerns but simply because of cultural historical assumptions that pricing in certain areas are deemed higher and people would simply accept it and comparing or alternatives were made difficult. It is worth considering globally, personally I think it is partial greed. I am a great believer for fixing root causes and at the moment no one wants to address or fix the real issues so we end up with some of those funny policy attempts as discussed in particularly around housing. Definitely worth to discuss further.
Yup nothing to do with shortness of supply just greedy companies and governments to busy playing sdier in the ukraine
count your blessings here in Europe food prices up 20% plus every MONTH despite being told rate of inflation falling. Some branded foods from likes of Heinz, Unilever et al. up 2 - 3 times since beginning of year.
There was once WALL STREET WEEK with the prince Louis Rukeyser. I grew up with him. NOW it's WEALTHION with Adam Taggart. The torch has been handed.
That's high praise -- thank you!!
@@Wealthion You have earned it Adam
Love this weekly show. I'm just getting more into the markets etc. As such, when Lance said they saw sell signals and sold down on Friday, be great know what those signals were buy or sell . Just overview . Probably charts and the MACD . Be good to know then follow up myself for more understanding
What is the difference between officers' quarters on a military base and a rundown public project? Neither is privately owned.
Lance 'I just wrote an article' Roberts
Brilliant!!
Everything you said is bang on!!
Thank you guys!
I bought some SQQQ last week at 30.80 per share..
I see a double bottom on the daily chart with the MACD indicator rising, telling me there is some bullish divergence for this product
Thank God, for Adam and Lance. 🙏
Giving everyone a trophy for existing is one of the biggest reason we are in this mess
The real trophies come in 2030 for those who survived the cull
🍻 🍿 getting ready for the show!
I hear it's Waaaay better than the last episode.
@31:00 for about a minute - this us what I consider A Daisy Chain Recession. Each sector had down periods but in series instead of in parallel.
That's why it's so hard to figure out if/when a recession has/will occur.
Maybe we meed to further divide the term "recession" into it's smaller components (atm it's too all or nothing)
Can anyone elaborate on what they were talking about when they mentioned ruining your credit around the 1:17:00 mark? Is that for getting more aid if you ruin your credit on purpose ?
Lance has forgotten large chunks of history. Lehman didn't break the market- S&P 500 close the Friday before it failed was 1249, S&P 500 close the next Friday was 1255, and that was with Lehman's failure and AIG's bailout. The market broke on September 29th when the bailout bill was rejected, and the S&P dropped 107 points against the 59 when Lehman surprise collapsed. Lehman wasn't a cause and it wasn't even a trigger, it was just a symptom of the broken system- a corpse washed up on the beach by the storm, not the storm itself and there was no stopping it. Even after TARP was ratified there was another 200 point drop before the S&P even had an up day and the S&P was down >25% in 2 weeks.
Hey lance! Most of those rundown houses in poor neighborhoods are rentals. And the people who do own are poor and often old so they don’t have a lot of money or ability for home improvements.
Is Lance selling put spreads on VIX? Or Buying Vix Calls?
👍Thanks, some guys below might rush to make bitchy comments about this or that, but I am very grateful for all this free info -- and every week there's something to be gained from a casual little insight that Lance has said.👍
100% Right! One cannot complain or really criticize "free" information. Might not agree but can have mature discourse nonetheless.
Thanks again guys, you’re helping my sanity in these trying markets
Always such a good discussion. Thanks as always!
I hope Lance doesn't get too big of a head and leave us! We appreciate his insight on this channel.
This is one reason I run my own money calling for a mild 10% correction from here and assuming the FED will rapidly "pivot" back to zero rates is pure nonsese. Put in a 50% market drop and 10% unemployment rate maybe the FED could go to ZERO rates. My base case is a 20-30% bumpy correction from here a 5-6% unemployment rate an a drop to about 3% by mid to late election year 2024. I do agree a long Treasury position like EDV will be the place to be this summer into 2024.
Agreed! I replied similarly. 10% down from here of course could be the case, but guessing how it will turn out based on past behavior and data, only going down 10% from current levels makes no sense other than positive guessing.
Agree, we had a 20% decline in the S&P last year and the Fed kept raising. Why would they pivot now unless inflation goes back to 2% or something disastrous happens
I'd love to hear your take on ppp loans
That HOPE framework is great. Thanks you guys.
Thank you Adam and Lance.
10% from where we are now is just back to Oct lows. 30% decline on average means 30% from peak. That's 3360
It’s it not margin calls that make up the big sell off (crash)?
Me thinketh out of all these podcasts., this one is definitely one of my.......favourites!@?😉
Thank you for the content
Hi Adam thanks for your great show. Lance advising buy long term bonds while the likes of Ray Dalio advising to stay away at all cost. In 2022 The market fell and unexpectantly bonds also fell. In 2023 if the market falls will bonds now behave as expected and rise? Why?
In 2022, bonds fell because interest rates went up. For 2023, the Fed may raise rates a quarter point but probably not much more than that. And if something breaks (e.g. stocks collapse or credit markets freeze or recession hits hard with big layoffs), then the Fed may cut rates, which would propel long-term treasury bonds higher.
Thanks again for the great conversation. Lance is an incredible wealth of information!
Maybe someone could comment on this but i think higher interest rates that pop the housing bubble would be most benificial to low income people trying to buy a home.
Isn't time to see Simon hunt again ? Would be interesting to see his new outlook and opinions after all that have been unfolding since the last interview
Thanks for good discussion. You just told the story from Atlas Shrugged. Such a great book. Though it was not a "true story", it is not fiction.
We had subsidised housing in the UK via the Help to Buy scheme. It was of dubious value but did keep house prices higher, making affordability for the very ones the scheme was supposed to help even worse.
Wen split screen so we can see you both at the same time all the time?!
About the home purchasing program the buyer has to pay it back when the home is sold or refinanced, It falls in like a second loan, you guys know this , don’t hold on the information
On the HOPE indicator, as an engineer I have seen 3 Red lights & 1 Green light, I have also seen the first Red light turn Green again preventing a system failure. If the FED starts cutting rates maybe the housing market will take off again, hence rendering the HOPE indicator useless. So my point is, it can hardly be described as the best indicator out there.
Good show thanks for the information
Thank you for covering the issue of treasury, default risk. This has been keeping me up at night the last few weeks as I have a majority of my wealth in short term T-bills.
Recalling last week's show seemed to indicate BUY signals. Not agreeing/disagreeing - just observing how fickle the market signals are.
There are lots of mixed opinions about stocks and there projection in the next coming years, I aim for short term solid gains from market correction and I'd definitely jump on the boat if I knew a thing or two about day-trading, but then again what do I really know? I'm just looking for the right moves to grow and hedge my stagnant reserve of $370k from inflation.
it's all hype! best to ignore the trend at the moment whether bullish or bearish, and stick to a proper trading plan preferably with expertise assistance.
@@MarthaDavis-fh6cw Yeah, more reason I enjoy my day to day market decisions is that i'm being guided by a portfolio-coach, seeing that their entire skillset is built around going long and short at the same time, both employing profit-oriented strategy and laying off risk as a hedge against the inevitable downtrends, coupled with the exclusive information/analysis, it's quite impossible not to outperform. Netted over $1.5m in return on investment, since using a coach 2years and counting.
@@lindholmlille Thats true, I've been getting assisted by a FA for almost a year now, I started out with less than $200K and I'm just $19,000 short of half a million in profit.
@@margaritasbunny >I understand that tomorrow isn't promised to anyone, but investing today is hard for me now because I have no idea of how and where to invest in. I would be happy if you could advise me based on how you went about yours, as I am ready to go the passive income path.
@@Gracej34
As for the 100% financing (DPA) programs, the CA Dreams was actually pretty good. I get that none of us voted for it but I read that this was slush money that Newsome grabbed and allocated to this program. The parameters seemed decently risk balanced and borrowers had to fully qualify. Here’s, the problem- there was so little money allocated that it sold out in the first 15 minutes of being able to lock a borrower. So unless he magically finds more money, the program sold out and it’s a one and done. Very little exposure to the state- I think under
$30 mm ,which is nothing.
Great show as always with you and Lance- very much enjoy the banter
I was completely surprise by the HOPE methodology.
In the land of quasi scientific of economic analysis, this HOPE method is the most scientific. It does make a lot of senses.
Can’t wait for the General Clark interview. As a former Democrat presidential candidate, his opinion about the current state of his party. should be intriguing. Also, his views about the Ukrainian war would be very beneficial.
If so many in the market place are bears, why would that equate to ATH being made in most European markets and a dubious pump higher throughout March? I think it’s more to do with FOMO, the same 10/12 companies get plastered all over the financial news with “AI” linked to the headline and it’s dragged the market higher by dumb money (this is 100% a trap). Most of the companies I personally own have traded sideways at best (I’m not paying the PE for those mega cap stocks with these macros) during this supposed “bull market”.
Market maker will at some point soon rug pull the lot and it’ll cost dumb money (us) a lot of $$$s. It’s not recession ppl should worry about now it’s the obvious stagflation over the next 2/3 years.
The 2011 U.S. Debt Ceiling Crisis was a contentious debate in Congress that occurred in July 2011 regarding the maximum amount of debt the federal government should be allowed. Congress resolved the debt ceiling crisis by passing the Budget Control Act of 2011, which became law on August 2, 2011.
Question do the earnings valuations factor in the much higher inflation rate? I mein where it inflation that hasn't been around since 1980 and I remember when I was in college in November of 1982 pe were 8
I live in BC, Canada and there are literally communist rise workers posters plastered near my university and the government services union on strike have a flag that's completely communist colors... it's going great up here too...
"right" "right" "right".......Adam I wasn't aware you had Canadian heritage right :)
As always a wonderful discussion right, thanks guys.
It seems to me that all of these charts really only make sense if the economy is moving along on an even keel. We have a complete business shut down for some time. This disrupts all charts and all projects. It will take at least a couple of years before all of the charts make any sense.
He can't even mount a solid defense.. You did a great job of holding him to task.
Sector rotation is going to be the name of the game these coming years. You'll have to do a better job at following the money
Lance Answer News on SAT 🎉JULY 2 That’s my pick put the tv on Thanks W
Stop payin my credit cards off for 9 months before buying that vacation home, gotta adjust my credit score a tad….
PREACH IT!!!
The rally failed in a really bad place, not taking out the February high, which means a lower high has been put in(if in fact the rally is over)....this would likely mean a move back to 3800 would be a likely scenario... i guess it all depends on how markets react to the mega cap tech earnings this coming week.
thanks guys, always a pleasure!
Fully agree. SPY 392-420 is a landmine zone
@@Agooo13431 i think this very well could be a bear trap as well, as the rally may simply be putting in a bull flag consolidation, and we could get one further push higher up to the august 2022 high area.... have to be open to both scenarios, since the uptrend isn't technically broken yet until we test SPY 407 area... daily closes below that will likely test one more critical area around 404 and then that would confirm to me a big move lower is in the works....we'll see, as the reactions to mega cap earnings this week will determine, and watch the semi conductors SOX, SMH....as they will be the tell for sure, and are currently sitting right on their major uptrend line from october low... i'm looking to aggressively short this group and it could be a monster trade!
good luck my friend, and don't predict.....REACT!
Lance, non-essential federal workers means if they don't come to work, no one dies or no one misses an SSA check to buy food.🤣
TLT got a little shaky last week moving into 103 range?
TLT below 103 is a buy
I will tell you why I bought a 4-week treasury note. My bank was having special CD rates for new money, so I just went on my Treasury direct account and bought a full week note. When the money transferred back in, I got the 5% rate at my bank. I suspect this is what a lot of people are doing, perhaps their bank is only given them rates on new money and this is one way to take money away and bring it back as new money.
So the car Lance speaks about uses only negative posionning and sentiment as fuel. What about positive position an sentiment, ha?
I have reservations with ya boy's analysis, I think you do too..
Are I-bonds still a good investment?
Adam when are you going to have Stephanie Pomboy on again for a deep dive into what's going on these days? Her POV is the one I think is spot on.
It is very hard to save for a down payment while paying for rent every month unless your income is much higher than avg income in your area.
"You can't incentivize poor people with capital because they have no skin in the game and got it for free" Says the corporate capitalists who just got banksters bailed out for 160 billion dollars because they spent all their customer's money! Hypocrisy meet mirror.
No kidding......unbelievable the hypocrisy
Was Lance in favor of the SVB bailout?
Nope
That money market fund explanation on the 1 month treasury yield thing doesn’t make a lot of sense. With the exception of money market funds that call themselves “treasury only funds”, all other government type funds can lend into the overnight treasury repo market, where the Fed’s reverse repo facility will borrow nearly unlimited amount every day in order to keep the SOFR rate within FOMC policy range. Stated differently, they have somewhere else to go that pays the SOFR rate than the 1 month treasury.
The argument I’d make Lance is “where’s the money” if they need to step in and stimulate just where’s the money for that coming from? And how does that impact inflation….. these aren’t the same environments we had in 08, it’s worse!!
Time to go Gault and game the system. Why work more to pay more.
Consolidation during earnings season when retail has been trained to buy everything in sight is not bullish
It is a truly bizarre situation at the moment with the market holding up despite all the terrible data! Presumably when all those on the sidelines throw in the towel and dive in, then the bottom will drop out!
Are those the same bills that assist the government to participate and engage in Wars, on the strength that once the war commences the bills will be repaid?
Get out of all debt as fast as you can
They are not coming to save you
Vix is at recent near all time lows, . so NO, majority is not bearish. Actually majority is at complacency stage. Retail is buying on the dips thinking the FED is will pivot. This run is nothing more than a bail out from the FED liquidity to the regional banks.
"How 'PUTS' work, and how to '"utilize them'".
Adam can Wealthion please arrange a session on PUTS, as you did re "understanding BONDS"?
What is Wealthion's parent company?
I can't believe Biden's credit score solution. Glad I live in Australia.
Can you find another guy for weekly recap?
Not in the headlines-insurance companies??
Giving a mortgage to a bad credit person is like giving more money everytime a welfare Mom has another Baby!
It's not just PG&E, its all 3 major utilities which are required to do this by state law.
There will be a lot of welfare bitcoin miners.
I came in late. My bdc is down. Should I hold through the recession or should I take a loss and come in later?
Real wage Wages in the U.S. have stagnated since the early 1970s. Between 1979 and 2020, workers' wages grew by 17.5% while productivity grew over three times as fast at 61.8%
If business owners can't pay their people and it is shunted upward then maybe 'losing' those people to other countries wouldn't be a negative
Gents, I understand your frustration with those in power trying to help people that will have a difficult time retaining an asset (real estate) that they really can't afford.
What would you suggest to keep the less financially capable from revolting?
We need a significant recession to lower the price of housing by ~25%, and we need the government to not bail everyone out and go back to 0% interest rates
Parent company for wealthion?
Mahalo 🤙🏽🌴🇺🇸
Adam please your thoughts about Pax Gold as a digital alternative to invest in GOLD
Take a drink every time Adam says ‘right’ and you’ll pass out in 60 seconds
Is this a big bear market rally in the biggest crash in history?
Possibly
@@tarakenkratzer5284
It will start this fall until 2024.
Cash in treasuries for 18 months.
Add it to the list of Mal incentives in our "capitalist, free market system"
More houses for pennies for Steve Manuchin and his buddies.
Could all of the high short term rates and overnight rates for the central banks be the vacuum to get long term dollars short ( so they don't go out 5 years at4- 5% on CD's if you can get them that are not callable) prior to the public being coaxed into demanding a central bank digital currency or a change in law to get a fed coin in addition to providing short term liquidity for the system for the high inflation???????.
Please Adam , invite Felix Zulauf 🙏🙏🙏
Lance is REALLY starting to sound like CNBC. He's dancing really fast to explain why we're not gonna have a hard dip down
I don't know if I would put that on him, but you are right about the dancing
I was going to characterize some of the discussion as a long way to say...kick the can down the road" without fixing any problems for both debt and the monetary system. Great channel and overall discussion ...as to the multiple problems that everyone is facing to figure out the long and short term.
Jim Cramer is Lance's idol!
dont forget that he also claimed we voted for this vegetable, "we got what we voted for"
He mentions money supply still being elevated that might hold off a recession but I think it will just make the lag from Fed actions get stretched a bit longer
"if everyone paid all their taxes, we would not have a deficit "